nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2022‒09‒05
sixteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Fish to fight: does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia? By Lu, Yifan; Yamazaki, Satoshi
  2. A Study of Bid-rigging in Procurement Auctions: Evidence from Indonesia, Georgia, Mongolia, Malta, and State of California By Kei Kawai; Jun Nakabayashi; Daichi Shimamoto
  3. China’s global value chain linkage and logistics performances in emerging ASEAN economies By Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Zhao, Jun
  4. Valuing mangrove conservation attributes in Red River Delta, Vietnam: a choice experiment approach By Thanh Viet Nguyen; Michel Simioni; Hung Trung Vo
  5. Impacts of Out-Migration on Deforestation: Evidence from Myanmar By Jiang, Wentian; Filipski, Mateusz J.
  6. APEC and Its Role in Formulating International Norms By HATTORI Takashi
  7. Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam: A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation By Mr. Natan P. Epstein; Lucyna Gornicka; Karel Musil; Valeriu Nalban; Nga Ha
  8. Review of Energy Transition Policies in Singapore, London, and California By Chunmeng Yang; Siqi Bu; Yi Fan; Wayne Xinwei Wan; Ruoheng Wang; Aoife Foley
  9. On the implied volatility of Asian options under stochastic volatility models By Elisa Al\`os; Eulalia Nualart; Makar Pravosud
  10. Natural disasters and local government finance: Evidence from typhoon Haiyan By Capuno, Joseph; Corpuz, Jose; Samuel Lordemus
  11. Clicking for Credit: Experiences of Online Lender Applicants from the Small Business Credit Survey By Barbara J. Lipman; Lucas Misera; Ann Marie Wiersch; Kim Wilson
  12. Labor Market Pooling and Job Outcomes of Displaced Workers By Kekezi, Orsa
  13. Relationship between Extracurricular Activities in Elementary School and Academics, Non-cognitive Ability, and Future Achievements: Focusing on choice of physical activity or music activity (Japanese) By KUME Koichi; TSURU Kotaro; SANO Shinpei; YASUI Kengo
  14. Application of Path Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling in Nutrition and Dietetics By Jeffrey E. Harris; Philip Gleason
  15. The Impact of COVID-19 and Associated Policy Responses on Global Food Security By Edward Balistreri (UNL); Felix Baquedano (USDA ERS); John Beghin (UNL)
  16. Modelling Profitability of Private Equity: A Fractional Integration Approach By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Francisco Puertolas

  1. By: Lu, Yifan (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Yamazaki, Satoshi (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania)
    Abstract: To what extent do marine-based economic activities influence the onset of violent conflict? Despite ongoing debate over several decades around the relationship between natural resources and violent conflict, little of the relevant research has addressed the marine environment. Based on satellite data in Indonesia, this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between fisheries and violent conflict. From a sample of 757 cells representing the spatial interaction of conflict and catch landings in 2015 and employing ocean productivity as an exogenous instrument, both industrial and non-industrial catches were found to have a statistically significant positive effect on the number of conflict events. Additionally, increased illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) catches are more likely than legal catches to cause violent conflict. An increase in fish catches in Indonesian waters fuels conflict of every kind, among which protests and riots are most sensitive to fisheries while fighting and terrorism are least sensitive. Overall, these empirical findings support the hypothesis that increased competition for common-pool resources contributes to the onset of violent conflict.
    Keywords: conflict, illegal fishing, marine resources, ocean productivity, satellite data, Indonesia
    JEL: D74 O13 Q22
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Kei Kawai; Jun Nakabayashi; Daichi Shimamoto
    Abstract: We apply a Regression Discontinuity based approach to screen for collusion developed in Kawai et al. (2022) to public procurement data from five countries. We find that bidders who win by a very small margin have significantly lower backlog than those who lose by a very small margin in the sample of procurement auctions from Indonesia, suggesting that bidders collude by bid rotation. Our results suggest that the proportion of noncompetitive auctions is at least about 5% for all E-procurement auctions and about 3% for all auctions in Indonesia. We cannot reject the null of competition in other countries.
    JEL: L41 O52 O53
    Date: 2022–07
  3. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Zhao, Jun
    Abstract: This paper aims to evaluate the extent of China’s forward linkage of global value chains (GVCs) with emerging market economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) compared to those with the US and Japan, and also to examine the nexus of China’s forward GVC linkage with logistics performances in emerging ASEAN economies as China’s trade partners. This study uses the UNCTAD-Eora Database and applies a structural gravity trade model for the empirical analysis. The statistical observations identified the major position of China’s GVC, which has transformed from a backward linkage to a forward linkage since the mid-2000s. The empirical estimation verified there is less linkage in China’s forward GVC with emerging ASEAN economies than with the US and Japan, and demonstrated that the lack of logistics performances in emerging ASEAN economies has been a significant factor in explaining the less linkage in China’s forward GVC with them.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains; Forward Linkage; Logistics Performances; China; Emerging ASEAN Economies
    JEL: F12 F14 O53
    Date: 2022–07
  4. By: Thanh Viet Nguyen (University of Akureyri); Michel Simioni (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Hung Trung Vo (Thu Dau Mot University - Partenaires INRAE)
    Abstract: The study aims at valuing mangrove ecosystem services in Xuan Thuy National Park, Red River Delta, Vietnam. A discrete choice experiment was employed to elicit household willingness to pay (WTP) for a community project to protect mangroves against climate change. A conditional logit model and a random parameter logit model were estimated to identify the relationships between WTP and the different attributes of the mangrove conservation project. The results suggested that local households exhibited strong preferences for mangrove coverage area and storm prevention capacity whereas biodiversity benefits were not greatly perceived by most respondents. High level of heterogeneity in household preferences was found for the high mangrove coverage, and high management level of biodiversity. Furthermore, marginal household WTPs were computed given a change in each attribute level. Hence, the findings will aid in the development of a comprehensive payment for mangrove preservation policy in Vietnam.
    Keywords: Mangrove preservation,Environmental services valuation,Discrete choice experiment,Xuan Thuy National Park,Vietnam
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Jiang, Wentian; Filipski, Mateusz J.
    Keywords: International Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2022–08
  6. By: HATTORI Takashi
    Abstract: Formulation of international norms, including their diffusion and acceptance, is part of the practice in international relations. However, the scholars have not paid adequate attention to the role of regional organizations and institutions in this process. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has been one of the leading organizations in the Asia-Pacific region since its launch in 1989. This study examines the role of regional organizations in formulating international norms by examining APEC’s position in recent years. Three different international norms were chosen: (i) trade and investment liberalization, (ii) data-free flow with trust, and (iii) climate change governance. Actors in formulating international norms may involve governments, industries, civil societies/epidemic communities, and international organizations and institutions. The study examines how APEC, the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC), and the APEC Vision Group (AVG) have influenced the formulation of the aforementioned international norms. Through this examination, the study derives several points that are necessary for examining the relations between regional organizations and international norms.
    Date: 2022–08
  7. By: Mr. Natan P. Epstein; Lucyna Gornicka; Karel Musil; Valeriu Nalban; Nga Ha
    Abstract: We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of policy instruments, specifically interest rates, indicative nominal credit growth guidance, and exchange rate interventions, that the authorities employ to meet the primary objective of price stability. The calibrated model embeds a theoretically consistent monetary transmission mechanism and demonstrates robust in-sample forecasting accuracy, both of which are important prerequisites for the richer analysis and forecast-based narratives that support a forward-looking monetary policy regime.
    Keywords: Vietnam; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism; sample forecasting accuracy; impulse response; projection model; monetary policy implementation; forward-looking monetary policy regime; Inflation; Nominal effective exchange rate; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Real exchange rates; Global
    Date: 2022–06–24
  8. By: Chunmeng Yang; Siqi Bu; Yi Fan; Wayne Xinwei Wan; Ruoheng Wang; Aoife Foley
    Abstract: The paper contains the online supplementary materials for "Data-Driven Prediction and Evaluation on Future Impact of Energy Transition Policies in Smart Regions". We review the renewable energy development and policies in the three metropolitan cities/regions over recent decades. Depending on the geographic variations in the types and quantities of renewable energy resources and the levels of policymakers' commitment to carbon neutrality, we classify Singapore, London, and California as case studies at the primary, intermediate, and advanced stages of the renewable energy transition, respectively.
    Date: 2022–08
  9. By: Elisa Al\`os; Eulalia Nualart; Makar Pravosud
    Abstract: In this paper we study the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility for arithmetic Asian options with fixed strike price. The asset price is assumed to follow the Black-Scholes model with a general stochastic volatility process. Using techniques of the Malliavin calculus such as the anticipating Ito's formula we first compute the level of the implied volatility of the option when the maturity converges to zero. Then, we find and short maturity asymptotic formula for the skew of the implied volatility that depends on the roughness of the volatility model. We apply our general results to the SABR model and the rough Bergomi model, and provide some numerical simulations that confirm the accurateness of the asymptotic formula for the skew.
    Date: 2022–08
  10. By: Capuno, Joseph (University of the Philippines Diliman); Corpuz, Jose (University of Warwick); Samuel Lordemus (University of Lucerne)
    Abstract: This paper examines how natural disasters affect low public finances and their interplay with intergovernmental transfers and external resources. We document the causal effect of a natural disaster on the allocation of local public resources the local government fiscal dynamics by exploiting the random nature of the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most devastating natural disasters in recent history. Combining data on local government finance with reports on the level of damages caused by the typhoon, we employ several estimation strategies: we first rely on difference-in-differences and event study designs, and we further address a potential endogeneity concern by instrumenting the intensity exposure to the typhoon with distance to the storm path. We show that local revenue and public expenditures remain largely unaffected, except debt service, which are on average 15% lower in affected cities or municipalities. However, we document important heterogeneity in local revenue responses. We find no support for the moral hazard problem : our results indicate that external aid leads to higher local expenditures, particularly general public services, socioeconomic expenditures, including education and social services, and debt payments. These results highlight the crucial role of central government transfers in supporting local governments and mitigating the geographical economic disparities in the aftermath of exogenous shocks such as natural disasters.
    Keywords: Natural disasters ; local government finance ; Haiyan/Yolanda
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Barbara J. Lipman; Lucas Misera; Ann Marie Wiersch; Kim Wilson
    Abstract: This report presents findings on the experiences of small businesses seeking credit from online lenders, based on data from the 2021 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS). According to findings, firms that apply to online lenders are more likely to be newer and have fewer employees, lower revenues, and weaker credit scores. In addition, Black- and Hispanic-owned firms are more likely than white- and Asian-owned firms to report that they applied to an online lender. Furthermore, contrary to prior SBCS findings, online-lender applicants were less likely than bank applicants to be approved for the full amount of financing they sought. Generally, online-lender applicants reported lower overall satisfaction with their lenders than did bank applicants. Overall, approved applicants cited fewer challenges with their lender experiences than did applicants that were denied. The only exception was at online lenders, where approved applicants were more likely than denied applicants to cite challenges with high interest rates and unfavorable repayment terms.
    Keywords: small business; lenders
    Date: 2022–08–16
  12. By: Kekezi, Orsa (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: This paper studies how labor market pooling, calculated as regional concentrations of employment in related industries and related occupations, affects the job outcomes of displaced workers. Using matched employer-employee data for displaced workers between 2003-2009 in Sweden, the results show that all workers experience a drop in earnings after displacement. However, the earning losses of workers who lose their jobs in markets with higher labor market pooling are lower. Two mechanisms are highlighted to why this is the case - (1) better job match and (2) higher probability of getting a better job than the pre-displacement one.
    Keywords: job matching; labor market pooling; displaced workers; occupational upgrade
    JEL: J24 J62 J65
    Date: 2022–08–12
  13. By: KUME Koichi; TSURU Kotaro; SANO Shinpei; YASUI Kengo
    Abstract: This paper empirically analyzes the factors and outcomes related to the choice of extracurricular activities in elementary school. Specifically, we analyzed the experience of physical and musical activities by gender. A father's education level has particularly influence on his child's participation in physical and musical activities. The choice of physical activity is related to social capital such as strength of friendship and participation in local events, and the choice of musical activity is related to cultural capital, which includes lifestyle and experiences such as going to concerts with family and reading books. In terms of academic performance, non-cognitive ability, educational background, and wages, the group who chose either physical or musical activity was more successful than the group who neither did physical nor musical activity. In addition, physical activity and musical activity were associated with different outcomes depending on gender and achievement measures. For example, wages were higher in the group who chose physical activity for both men and women, but the academic performance in elementary school was better in the group who chose musical activity for both men and women. Regarding non-cognitive abilities, the result suggests that women who chose physical activity had a higher extroversion and preference for competition than those who chose musical activity, both of which may be linked to effects on current wages. We also confirmed that those who chose both physical activity and musical activity had a higher workload, which may result in lower achievement scores than that of those who chose only one of the two activities.
    Date: 2022–08
  14. By: Jeffrey E. Harris; Philip Gleason
    Abstract: This monograph is part of the statistics series intended to describe path analysis, structural equation modeling, and related methods in nutrition research.
    Keywords: Multiple regression, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, path analysis, structural equation modeling
  15. By: Edward Balistreri (UNL); Felix Baquedano (USDA ERS); John Beghin (UNL)
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on the global economy and food security in 80 low- and middle-income countries. We use a global economy-wide model with detailed disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors and develop a business as usual baseline for 2020 and 2021 called “But-for-COVID” (BfC). We then shock the model with aggregate income shocks derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021. We impose total-factor productivity losses in key sectors as well as consumption decreases induced by social distancing. The resulting shocks in prices and incomes from the CGE model simulations are fed into the USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment model to derive the impact of the pandemic on food security in these 80 countries. The main effect of the pandemic was to exacerbate the existing declining trend in food security. Food insecurity increases considerably in countries in Asia through income shocks rather than prices effects. We also review trade policies that were put in place to restrict imports and exports of food, and we evaluate their potential for further disruption of markets focusing on the food-security implications.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–08–21
  16. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Francisco Puertolas
    Abstract: This paper analyses the stochastic behaviour of Private Equity returns (a measure of profitability) applying fractional integration methods to an extensive dataset including quarterly data spanning the last four decades for various geographical areas (US, Europe, Asia/Pacific, the Rest of the World and the Total) and investment types (Buyout & Growth Equity, Venture Capital, Fund of Funds & Secondary Funds, Infrastructure, Natural Resources, Real Estate, Subordinated Capital & Distressed as well as the aggregate category All Types). The results support the hypothesis of stationarity and mean reversion in all cases; however, there are differences in the degree of persistence across regions, the series for Europe being the closest to a short-memory process, while those for the US exhibit long memory, which implies that shocks have long-lived effects. Differences are also found in the results by asset class. The implications of these findings for private equity management, profit smoothing and return benchmarking are briefly discussed.
    Keywords: private equity, profitability, fractional integration, long memory, mean reversion
    JEL: C22 C59 Y10
    Date: 2022

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