|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Masahito Ambashi (Associate Professor, Kyoto University, Research Fellow, ERIA,and Consulting Fellow, RIETI); Fusanori Iwasaki (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | In this study, economic shocks on six selected Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam) are analysed in three dimensions: global, domestic, and uncertainty. Annual actual and prediction values from 1990–2021 macroeconomic indicators – from international organisations such as the Asian Development Bank – were collected, and macroeconomic shocks were calculated based on prediction errors (i.e. actual values minus prediction values). The first finding is that if prediction errors of the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates are negative, on average, the countries were significantly subjected to negative economic shocks that were not anticipated. Second, according to a correlation analysis of the actual values and prediction errors of real GDP growth rates, economic fluctuations and shocks are highly synchronised within the countries as well as with the world, as previous literature has indicated. Finally, by conducting regression analyses regarding the prediction error of real GDP growth rates separately for each country, (i) variations of the global real GDP growth rate are positively associated with countries’ economic shocks; (ii) the previous estimates have different quantitative significance amongst the countries; (iii) residual variations approximate country-specific, domestic shocks; and (iv) global and country-level uncertainty indices are correlated with negative economic shocks in some countries. Based on this dataset, the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is also reviewed, and economic and historical backgrounds are examined that caused past economic shocks to these ASEAN Member States. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN-6 countries; Prediction error; Economic shock; Uncertainty; Business cycle synchronisation |
| JEL: | E32 F44 N15 |
| Date: | 2021–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2022-02&r= |
| By: | Wishnu Mahraddika |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews capital flow management (CFM) policy in Indonesia and examines its effectiveness from 2000 to 2019. The methodology involves constructing a new capital flow management policy restrictiveness index (CFMIX) and examining impulse responses of these flows to CFMIX adjustments through structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) estimation. The index shows that the Indonesian CFM policy stance has been more accommodative of capital inflows and restrictive on outflows over time. The results indicate that capital inflows in the form of portfolio investment are significantly responsive to CFM measures. However, there is no evidence of significant impact of CFM policy on outflows. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows, capital flow management, Indonesia |
| JEL: | F21 F32 F36 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2021-15&r= |
| By: | Jayant Menon |
| Abstract: | ASEAN has been through two major financial crises in the last quarter century: the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Although there is a voluminous literature covering the original five members, it has largely ignored the newer members – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam (BCLMV). For the first time, a systematic analysis of the experience of the newer members of ASEAN relating to the AFC and the GFC focusing on impact, policy response and lessons is provided. Their participation in regional financial cooperation initiatives in helping prevent or mitigate the impact of future crises, and how these initiatives need to be enhanced to better serve them is also considered. |
| Keywords: | Asian Financial Crisis; Global Financial Crisis; ASEAN; Brunei Darussalam; Cambodia; Lao PDR; Myanmar; Vietnam. |
| JEL: | G01 F15 F32 F33 F34 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2021-27&r= |
| By: | Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Juniarto James Losari (City University Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | Local content requirement (LCR) is one of several economic instruments used by governments for various purposes, including to protect infant domestic industries or to generate employment. Indonesia uses LCR policies in several sectors. However, LCRs are often found to be inconsistent with a country’s WTO commitments. Additionally, free trade agreements could also have provisions that regulate the implementation of LCRs. This paper seeks to assess whether Indonesia’s free trade agreements have provisions on LCRs, and, if so, whether its LCR regulations are consistent with those provisions. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, Investment Law, LCRs |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-49&r= |
| By: | Oscar Fernando (World Trade Organization); Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Local content requirements (LCRs) are one of several economic instruments used by governments to protect infant domestic industries or to generate employment. Indonesia has LCR policies in several sectors. However, LCRs are often inconsistent with a country’s World Trade Organization commitments. Additionally, free trade agreements could also have provisions that regulate LCRs. This paper assesses whether Indonesia’s free trade agreements have provisions on LCRs, and whether its regulations are consistent with them. |
| Keywords: | Local Content Requirements, WTO, FTA, East Asia, Indonesia |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-53&r= |
| By: | Michelle Limenta (Universitas Pelita Harapan); Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Local content requirement is one of the policy measures used by many countries around the globe, including Indonesia, to protect and support their strategic sectors. This paper assesses Indonesia’s local content regulations in the energy, telecommunication devices, pharmaceutical, and modern retail sectors that are deemed problematic by certain Word Trade Organization (WTO) Members in light of Indonesia’s obligations under the multilateral trade rules. |
| Keywords: | WTO, Indonesia, LCRs, Protection |
| JEL: | F1 F13 |
| Date: | 2022–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-47&r= |
| By: | Ayako Obashi (Aoyama Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the patterns and trends of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade as well as the formation and development of international production networks or global value chains in East Asia, with a special focus on Association of Southeast Asian Nations Member States. To conduct data observations and analyses, we rely on trade data disaggregated by stage in the production process, FDI inflows data by sector, and international input–output tables. East Asian countries trade manufactured parts and components intensively with each other whilst exporting capital goods and consumption goods to countries outside the region. Considering a complementary relationship between trade and FDI in evolving production fragmentation and offshoring, we investigate how and to what extent East Asian countries have been integrated into regional and global value chains, focusing on the machinery sectors. |
| Keywords: | Developing East Asia; FDI; Trade; Production networks |
| JEL: | F23 O53 |
| Date: | 2022–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-50&r= |
| By: | Lili Yan Ing (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Yessi Vadila (Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how the coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected Indonesia’s exports and imports, both in terms of volume and value. We use monthly trade data at the Harmonized System (HS) 8-digit level from January 2017 to December 2020. We use fixed effects and difference-in-differences (DID) approaches. The findings show that COVID-19 lowers the export volume by 10.7% (export value by 13.4%). At the same time, COVID-19 reduces import volume by 16.42% (import value by 25.9%). Analysing the causes of decreases in Indonesia’s trade will shed light on the causes of the drop in such trade figures. It will help design appropriate policy responses to enhance trade for the Indonesian economy’s swift recovery. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, Covid-19, Trade, Empirical studies, Southeast Asia |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-48&r= |
| By: | Chairina Hanum Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Muhammad Rifqi Aufari (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Hamdan Bintara (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Raka Rizky Fadilla (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Wildan Al Kautsar Anky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nia Kurnia Sholihah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Lovina Aisha Malika Putri (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Alin Halimatussadiah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Jahen Fachrul Rizki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Many workers in Indonesia experienced job loss and decreasing income during the pandemic of COVID-19. These phenomena have a tremendous impact on workers since they were affected by economic losses and worsened their mental health. To help the worker, the Government of Indonesia (GoI) is releasing Kartu Prakerja program (Pre-employment Card), an on-demand and self-targeting program.This study investigates the impact of Kartu Prakerja program on people’s mental health conditions. We use online survey data collected from 4000 respondents from all over Indonesia in August–September 2020. Our main independent variables are mental health-related variables, such as happiness, sadness, anxiety, and anger level. By using ordered logistic regression, this study shows a positive andsignificant relationship between people who are receiving Kartu Prakerja on their sadness, anxiety, and anger level. Receiving Kartu Prakerja could reduce their sadness, anxiety and anger level. Whereas it does not affect their happiness levels. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 — kartu prakerja — mental health — indonesia |
| JEL: | I18 I19 I38 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202270&r= |
| By: | Kiki Verico (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN is in the process of structural economic and digital transformation. ASEAN needs to adopt related principles to support it. This paper found that structural economic transformation requires the open economy as the necessary principle and economic convergence as the sufficient condition. The open regionalism principle is needed because ASEAN needs Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from member and non-member states. Furthermore, open regionalism must decrease the economic gap within member states. Therefore, ASEAN needs a sufficient condition of economic convergence within member states. This paper took the implementation of Bali Concord III on FDI inflows as a proxy for open and the GDP per capita gap to the highest member state’s GDP per capita within member states as a proxy for economic convergence. This paper confirmed that economic convergence comes after the open principle. As for the digital economic transformation, this paper showed ASEAN needs the inclusive principle. Lastly, it described ASEAN’s commitment to the green economy. This paper adopted the quantitative method in assessing open and convergence and the qualitative approach in analysing inclusive and green principles. |
| Keywords: | international economy — open economy — economic integration — digital economy — sustainable economy — ASEAN |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F41 O36 Q01 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202271&r= |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Donghyun Park; Huanhuan Zheng |
| Abstract: | We analyze the sovereign bond issuance data of eight major emerging markets (EMs) - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey from 1970 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that (i) EM local currency bonds tend to be smaller in size, shorter in maturity, or lower in coupon rate than foreign currency bonds; (ii) EMs are more likely to issue local-currency sovereign bonds if their currencies appreciated before the global financial crisis of 2008 (GFC); (iii) inflation-targeting monetary policy increases the likelihood of issuing local-currency debt before GFC but not after; and (iv) EMs that offer higher sovereign yields are more likely to issue local-currency bonds after GFC. Future data will allow us to test and identify structural changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.09218&r= |
| By: | Nguyen Van Kien; Vo Phu Qui; Vo Van Oc; Pham Tran Lan Phuong; Le Thi Phuong Dong; Lam Quoc Phuong; Pham Duy Tien; Truong Ngoc Thuy; Le Thanh Phong |
| Abstract: | Climate change has brought enormous challenges to human lives, livelihoods, and the environment. Temperature increase, abnormal floods, and water pollution have negatively impacted on socioeconomic and agricultural systems in the Vietnamese Mekong delta. The aims of this study are to assess the readiness of traditional rice farming systems in the Vietnamese Mekong delta in adapting to climate change conditions and select traditional rice genetic materials for supporting breeding programs in the future. The research was conducted from April 2016 to December 2017 in the upper part of the Vietnamese Mekong delta, including An Giang, Kien Giang, and Long An provinces where the cultivation of traditional rice varieties or TRV thrive with the conditions brought by the climate change such as drought and salinity. Social research methods were used to assess farmers’ socioeconomic status, indigenous farming knowledge, and the alternative farming models in the context of climate change. Sampling seeds were also analyzed based on morphological and yield-related indicators. TRVs are distributed mainly in Kien Giang and Long An provinces and some mountainous areas of Tri Ton district in An Giang province. Yield varies from four to seven t/ha and these rice varieties are well adapted to unfavorable soil and adverse weather conditions such as drought, salinity, and alum toxicity. These rice varieties can tolerate submergence of |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Mekong Delta, climate change adaptation, rice-based farming system, traditional farming, TRV |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sag:seadps:2022:518&r= |
| By: | Krisna Gupta |
| Abstract: | Indonesian government has been working hard in engaging with the world market as average tariff keeps on decreasing. However, it seems to rely on Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) rather than tariffs to protect its industries. This paper inspects whether these measures hurt firms by limiting their access to better quality and cheaper foreign inputs. This paper builds on Amiti and Konings (2007) to inspect the impact of trade policy shocks to firm’s Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The results suggest unintended consequences of protectionism: tariff and NTMs hurt firms’ TFP and labour absorption significantly. The impact is less severe for bigger firms, confirming heterogeneous effect of trade policy. As the country is looking to boost foreign investment, the paper makes a strong case for reducing protection to keep mark-up in domestic manufacturing high as an incentive. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity, Tariff, Non-tariff Measures, manufacturing, trade liberalization. |
| JEL: | O14 O53 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2021-21&r= |
| By: | Solikin M. Juhro; Denny Lie; Aryo Sasongko |
| Abstract: | This paper builds and estimates a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model suitable for the evaluation of central bank policy mix, with a particular application on the Indonesian economy. The model has a rich array of shocks and frictions, including banking and financial frictions. We illustrate how the estimated model can be used to investigate the source of aggregate fluctuations in Indonesia and to evaluate and simulate a policy mix involving monetary and macroprudential policies. Our Bayesian estimation identifies the COVID-19 pandemic shocks as being mainly a combination of adverse supply-side (technology) and demand-side (preference and foreign-output) shocks. We show that a countercyclical capital requirement rule could be a potent addition to Bank Indonesia's policy mix arsenal. Despite its rich features, the model is scalable and can be readily extended for evaluating other types of central bank policy mix. |
| Keywords: | central bank policy mix; integrated policy framework; countercyclical macroprudential policy rule; DSGE model for Indonesia; COVID-19 pandemic; capital requirement; |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2022-01&r= |
| By: | Dam, Duy Duc; Huynh, Cong Minh |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically studies factors influencing consumers’ purchase intention toward accommodation via lodging websites and their impact magnitudes in Binh Duong province of Vietnam. The results show that Lodging information (LI), Online lodging reviews (OR), Trust with the host (HT), Website usability (WU), and Perceived privacy and security (PS) significantly have positive impacts on consumers’ purchase intention (PI) toward accommodation via lodging websites for a sample size of 400 respondents in Binh Duong province. Remarkably, OR has the strongest impact on PI, followed by WU, PS, HT, and LI. However, Perceived lodging value (PV) and Perceived lodging price (PP) have insignificant impacts on PI. The findings provide marketers and practitioners with useful information for promoting purchase intention toward accommodation via lodging websites from the perspective of consumers in an emerging economy like Vietnam. |
| Keywords: | Lodging website, Purchase Intentions, Perceived value, Perceived price, Lodging information, Online reviews, Trust, Perceived privacy and security. |
| JEL: | D12 M10 M31 |
| Date: | 2022–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113517&r= |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala; Hai Thanh Nguyen |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the fledgling literature on firm ownership and manufacturing productivity in transition economies by drawing on the experience of Vietnam. The empirical analysis uses a new a new establishment-level panel dataset over the period 2006-2017. The findings indicate that the transformation of the ownership structure under trade and investment policy reforms has contributed significantly to improving the productivity of the manufacturing sector, with both fully owned subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and MNE joint ventures with domestic private sector firms playing a pivotal role. Productivity of fully-owned MNE subsidiaries is significantly higher than that of MNE joint ventures, supporting the view that relaxing ownership restrictions on foreign direct investment have been instrumental in improving manufacturing productivity. Both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and MNE-SOE joint ventures are at the bottom of the productivity ranking, suggesting that the MNE-SOE joint ventures are not immune to productivity-retarding factors affecting SOEs. |
| Keywords: | transition economies, Vietnam, manufacturing, multinational enterprises (MNEs), State owned enterprises (SOEs) |
| JEL: | F23 O14 P24 P23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2022-09&r= |
| By: | Mai, Nhat Chi |
| Abstract: | This thesis was shaped from Action 13 of the recent Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project adopted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and G20 countries to prevent profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs). In response to the BEPS Action 13, New Zealand and Vietnam have recently introduced new transfer pricing rules. As little research has been done to examine the effects of the BEPS Action 13 on the transfer pricing landscape of respective countries, the main objective of this study is to understand how the New Zealand and Vietnamese governments have reacted to and adapted the BEPS Action 13 and what tax consultants and taxpayers in both countries think about the new transfer pricing regulations. This study is exploratory in nature. As such, a qualitative case study approach has been adopted using institutional theory as a theoretical framework. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with two tax officers and ten transfer pricing consultants in both countries to identify the differences and similarities, and to draw conclusions. Other sources of publicly available data were also used to support the study. |
| Date: | 2020–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gq27c&r= |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine the risk of premature deindustrialization in the latecomer’s developing countries in Asia with a focus on manufacturing output ratio by using the latecomer’s index. This study’s contributions are to target Asian economies that were treated as a group with comparative advantages in manufacturing by previous studies, and to adopt the latecomer’s index to show downward shifts of the latecomer’s manufacturing-income relationship that implies the existence of premature deindustrialization risk. The empirical analysis identified the downward shifts of manufacturing-income relationship in globalization processes, i.e., premature deindustrialization risk in the latecomer’s developing countries in Asia, and also showed that the risk was higher in the manufacturing trade-deficit countries than the trade-surplus ones, and in South Asian countries than in Southeast countries. The strategic policy direction in the latecomers who have faced premature deindustrialization risk is to facilitate their participations in global value chains to mitigate and avoid the risk. |
| Keywords: | Premature deindustrialization, Latecomers, Developing countries in Asia, Manufacturing output, Global value chains |
| JEL: | F10 O14 O53 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113551&r= |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mahrt, Kristi; Minten, Bart; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Smart, Jenny; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February (Figure 1). |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Ukraine, poverty, food security, armed conflicts, crises, prices, shock, agrifood systems, equality, diet, gross national product |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:14&r= |
| By: | Tony Cavoli (University of South Australia); David Christian (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Rashesh Shrestha |
| Abstract: | SMEs are the most important source of employment in all ASEAN countries, but a lack of access to external sources of finance may limit their expansion and growth. In particular, the existence of a trade finance gap can curtail their participation in international trade. Countries in ASEAN and East Asia need to address this issue to include SMEs in their export-oriented growth strategy. This paper provides a framework for understanding the trade finance gap by examining the nature and strength of relationships between different actors in the trade finance ecosystem. We present an overview of the literature that studied the relationship between financial development and trade, the availability and use of various trade finance instruments in international trade, and some stylised facts about trade finance in ASEAN. |
| Keywords: | Trade Finance; International Financial Institutions; trade; financial crisis |
| JEL: | F19 F34 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-55&r= |
| By: | Huy Hoang Nguyen; Quang Hoan Truong (Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS)) |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, Viet Nam, a developing economy, has significantly improved its export structure and, to some extent, its participation in global value chains (GVCs), which along with foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered amongst the main driving factors for Viet Nam’s impressive economic growth. By employing the AJC-UNCTAD-Eora database on Association of Southeast Asian Nations GVCs, this current study aims to empirically explore the nexus between FDI and other factors for GVC participation in Viet Nam during the 2000–2019 period. The estimation shows that the economic size and market development of Viet Nam and its trading partners are the main determinants of Viet Nam’s GVC participation. We find that inward FDI flows into Viet Nam have a positive impact on the country’s GVC participation in both the forward and backward linkages. The estimation demonstrates that geographical distance is an impediment for Viet Nam’s backward GVC participation, whilst engagement in free trade agreements is found to advantageously affect Viet Nam’s GVC participation in both backward and forward linkages. We find a positive influence of Viet Nam and its and trading partners’ logistics performance on Viet Nam’s GVC participation. The paper also provides policy implications for Viet Nam to better use FDI and other sources to enhance and deepen its GVC participation in the future. |
| Keywords: | Viet Nam; GVC participation; FDI; determinants; backward; forward |
| JEL: | F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2022–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-51&r= |
| By: | Yan Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the statistical decision problem of learning an individualized intervention policy when data are obtained from observational studies or randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. Leveraging an instrumental variable, we provide a social welfare criterion that allows the policymaker to account for endogenous treatment selection. To this end, we incorporate the marginal treatment effects (MTE) when identifying treatment effects parameters and consider encouragement rules that affect social welfare through treatment take-up when designing policies. We focus on settings where encouragement rules are binary decisions on whether or not to offer a user-chosen manipulation of the instrument based on observable characteristics. We apply the representation of the social welfare criterion of encouragement rules via the MTE to the Empirical Welfare Maximization (EWM) method and derive convergence rates of the worst-case regret (welfare loss). We illustrate the EWM encouragement rule using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.09883&r= |
| By: | Nobuaki Yamashita (Swinburne University of Technology, Keio University, ANU); Doan Thi Thanh Ha (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | It is well documented that firms that participate in global value chains (GVCs) are larger and more productive, maintaining higher profitability compared to those without such connections. This paper asks the novel question of whether higher profits being connected to GVCs are shared with employees in the form of better pay. We investigated this rent sharing, using a matched employer–employee dataset of Vietnamese small firms surveyed between 2013 and 2015. We found that positive profits would feed into individual wages after accounting for the firm and employee attributes, as well as firm and employee fixed effects, but this is only found for those small firms without any involvement with GVCs. Rent sharing, on the other hand, is completely absent in GVC firms. We take this as evidence that GVC firms provide both higher wages and insurance against demand fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains (GVCs), rent sharing, profits, outsourcing, multinational enterprises, Viet Nam, microenterprises, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) |
| Date: | 2022–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-52&r= |
| By: | Pagel, Jeff |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether extractive resource activities provoke an ecological response on the emergence and proliferation of malaria by altering the reproductive environment of mosquitoes. In January 2004, the government of the Philippines launched the Minerals Action Plan (MAP) with the goal of revitalizing the mining sector, which significantly reduced the average lag between application and grant of a mining permit. I exploit the timing of the reform and the spatial distribution of mineral endowments through a difference-in-differences (DID) approach that compares provinces with and without gold deposits before and after the reform. After the MAP reform, provinces with deposits of gold had 32 percent more malaria cases relative to provinces without gold deposits. Additionally, the impact on malaria appears to be persistent 10 years beyond the implementation of the policy. I perform several falsification tests as well as investigate other potential mechanisms to further suggest that the main mechanism is through gold mining’s creation of slow-moving bodies of stagnant water, which provide an ideal breeding site for Anopheles mosquitoes, malaria’s main transmission vector, to propagate and reproduce. |
| Keywords: | natural resource curse; malaria; extractive resources; health and economic development |
| JEL: | Q32 Q57 I18 |
| Date: | 2022–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115532&r= |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the export values of manufactured goods for the Central Asian countries by using a gravity trade model, and investigates the roles of institutional qualities in manufacturing exports based on the World Governance Indicators. The findings of this study are summarized as follows. With Kazakhstan being a benchmark country, the remaining four Central Asian countries have downward deviations in manufacturing exports and institutional qualities. Then the institutional qualities such as control of corruption, government effectiveness and rule of law are identified to be the major factors to explain the differences in the manufacturing exports’ performances. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia; manufacturing exports; institutional qualities; World Governance Indicators; gravity trade model |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113585&r= |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Ellis, Mia; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Smart, Jenny |
| Abstract: | Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February (Figure 1). |
| Keywords: | CAMBODIA, SOUTH EAST ASIA, ASIA, Ukraine, poverty, food security, armed conflicts, crises, prices, shock, agrifood systems, equality, diet, commodities, fertilizers |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gccbrf:16&r= |
| By: | Kailai Wang (University of Houston); Xize Wang (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | Whether the Millennials are less auto-centric than the previous generations has been widely discussed in the literature. Most existing studies use regression models and assume that all factors are linear-additive in contributing to the young adults' driving behaviors. This study relaxes this assumption by applying a non-parametric statistical learning method, namely the gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT). Using U.S. nationwide travel surveys for 2001 and 2017, this study examines the non-linear dose-response effects of lifecycle, socio-demographic and residential factors on daily driving distances of Millennial and Gen-X young adults. Holding all other factors constant, Millennial young adults had shorter predicted daily driving distances than their Gen-X counterparts. Besides, residential and economic factors explain around 50% of young adults' daily driving distances, while the collective contributions for life course events and demographics are about 33%. This study also identifies the density ranges for formulating effective land use policies aiming at reducing automobile travel demand. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.11056&r= |
| By: | Xize Wang (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | Using U.S. nationwide travel surveys for 1995, 2001, 2009 and 2017, this study compares Millennials with their previous generation (Gen Xers) in terms of their automobile travel across different neighborhood patterns. At the age of 16 to 28 years old, Millennials have lower daily personal vehicle miles traveled and car trips than Gen Xers in urban (higher-density) and suburban (lower-density) neighborhoods. Such differences remain unchanged after adjusting for the socio-economic, vehicle ownership, life cycle, year-specific and regional-specific factors. In addition, the associations between residential density and automobile travel for the 16- to 28-year-old Millennials are flatter than that for Gen Xers, controlling for the aforementioned covariates. These generational differences remain for the 24- to 36-year-old Millennials, during the period when the U.S. economy was recovering from the recession. These findings show that, in both urban and suburban neighborhoods, Millennials in the U.S. are less auto-centric than the previous generation during early life stages, regardless of economic conditions. Whether such difference persists over later life stages remains an open question and is worth continuous attention. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.10601&r= |
| By: | Doan Thi Thanh Ha (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hongyong Zhang (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Japan) |
| Abstract: | As tariffs have declined to a low level, the trade literature has paid increasing attention to the impact of non-tariff measures. Unlike tariffs, non-tariff measures could act as both a barrier to trade and a catalyst for quality upgrading. This study examines the effect of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) on trade margins and quality upgrading at the firm level. To do so, we utilise rich Chinese Customs data recording the universe of export transactions from 2000 to 2012, matched with the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and the World Trade Organization’s Specific Trade Concerns database. We find that TBTs are associated with higher probability to exit. Surviving exporters enjoy larger sales and charge higher export prices. We also find robust evidence for the quality upgrading effects of TBTs. Firms upgrade their product quality by expanding their research and development and investment and importing more intermediate inputs and capital goods. The positive impact of TBTs on quality upgrading offsets that on price increases, resulting in lower quality-adjusted export prices. This suggests the net welfare-enhancing effect of TBTs for the consumers of imported products. The results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity and across various specifications. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff Measures, Technical Barrier to Trade, Trade Margins, Quality upgrading, Firm Heterogeneity, China |
| JEL: | F13 F14 D22 |
| Date: | 2022–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-54&r= |