nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2022‒02‒21
fourteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Factors of Purchase Intentions toward Foreign Products: Empirical Evidence from Vietnamese Consumers’ Perspective By Nguyen, Trinh Bao Trung; Huynh, Cong Minh
  2. Resilience to shrinking as a catch-up strategy: a comparison of Brazil and Indonesia, 1964–2010 By Axelsson, Tobias; Martins, Igor
  3. Extending Pension Policy in Emerging Asia: An Overlapping-Generations Model Analysis for Indonesia By George Kudrna; John Piggott; Phitawat Poonpolkul
  4. From Project to Outcome: the Case of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory in Indonesia By Masato Kawanishi; Nela Anjani Lubis; Hiroyuki Ueda; Junko Morizane; Ryo Fujikura
  5. ICT and financial development: Empirical evidence from ASEAN countries By Tran, Quoc Duy; Huynh, Cong Minh
  6. Critical Periods in Cognitive and Socioemotional Development: Evidence from Weather Shocks in Indonesia By Duncan Webb
  7. Economic Forecasting in An Epidemic: A Break from the Past? By Chow, Hwee Kwan; Choy, Keen Meng
  8. Entry and Spatial Competition of Intermediaries: Evidence from Thailand’s Rice Market By Bunyada Laoprapassorn
  9. Just transition in Southeast Asia: Exploring the links between social protection and environmental policies By Alexandre Berthe,; Pascale Turquet,; Huynh Thi Phuong Linh.
  10. Gifted and Talented Programs and Racial Segregation By Owen Thompson
  11. Violence against Rich Ethnic Minorities: A Theory of Instrumental Scapegoating By Yann Bramoullé; Pauline Morault
  12. Automation and Related Technologies: A Mapping of the New Knowledge Base By Santarelli, Enrico; Staccioli, Jacopo; Vivarelli, Marco
  13. Agri-food trade in the EU and France between 2000 and 2020 By Vincent Chatellier; Thierry Pouch
  14. What's next for social protection in light of COVID-19: country responses By Charlotte Bilo; Roberta Brito; Aline Peres; Mariana Balboni

  1. By: Nguyen, Trinh Bao Trung; Huynh, Cong Minh
    Abstract: This study empirically explores factors affecting consumers’ purchase intentions toward foreign products, and their impact magnitudes in six major cities of Vietnam (including Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh, Binh Duong, and Can Tho). Our results illustrate that Vietnamese consumers’ purchase intentions toward foreign products are positively affected by Perceived quality, Perceived prestige, Perceived value, and Influence of others. Notably, Perceived prestige has the strongest impact on consumers’ purchase intentions. The findings of this study enrich the international marketing literature on the consumer evaluation of foreign products in developing countries like Vietnam as well as assist practitioners to build more appropriate marketing strategies for targeting emerging markets.
    Keywords: Foreign products; Perceived quality, Perceived prestige, Perceived value, Influence of others; Purchase intentions
    JEL: L81 M16 M31 Q02
    Date: 2022–01–15
  2. By: Axelsson, Tobias (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Martins, Igor (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Development economics has long focused on growth patterns to explain countries’ ability to catch up and forge ahead. We argue, however, that resilience to economic shrinking matters more. Using the examples of Brazil and Indonesia, we propose that a framework consisting of social capabilities – namely structural transformation, autonomy, and inclusion – can explain why Indonesia is more resilient to economic shrinking than Brazil and why the country is more likely to be successful in its catching-up process.
    Keywords: economic shrinking; income convergence; natural states; social capabilities; Latin America; Asia
    JEL: N10 O20 O43
    Date: 2022–01–19
  3. By: George Kudrna; John Piggott; Phitawat Poonpolkul
    Abstract: This paper examines the economy-wide effects of government policies to extend public pensions in emerging Asia particularly pertinent given the region’s large informal sector and rapid population ageing. We first document stylized facts about Indonesia’s labour force, drawing on the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). This household survey is then used to calibrate micro behaviours in a stochastic, overlapping-generations (OLG) model with formal and informal labour. The benchmark model is calibrated to the Indonesian economy (2000-2019), fitted to Indonesian demographic, household survey, macroeconomic and fiscal data. The model is applied to simulate pension policy extensions targeted to formal labour (contributory pension extensions to all formal workers with formal retirement age increased from 55 to 65), as well as to informal labour (introduction of non-contributory social pensions to informal 65+). First, abstracting from population ageing, we show that: (i) the first set of pension policy extensions (that have already been legislated and are being implemented in Indonesia) have positive effects on consumption, labour supply and welfare (of formal workers) (due largely to the formal retirement age extension); (ii) the introduction of social pensions targeted to informal workers at older age generates large welfare gains for currently living informal elderly; and (iii) the overall pension reform leads to higher welfare across the employment-skill distribution of households. We then extend the model to account for demographic transition, finding that the overall pension reform makes the contributory pension system more sustainable but the fiscal cost of non-contributory social pensions more than triples to 1:7% of GDP in the long run. As an alternative, we examine application of a means-tested social pension system within the overall pension reform. We show that this counterfactual reduces the fiscal cost (of social pensions) and further increases the welfare for both current and future generations.
    Keywords: Informal Labour; Population Ageing; Social Security; Taxation; Redistribution; Stochastic General Equilibrium
    JEL: E26 J1 J21 J26 H55 H24 C68
    Date: 2022–01
  4. By: Masato Kawanishi; Nela Anjani Lubis; Hiroyuki Ueda; Junko Morizane; Ryo Fujikura
    Abstract: This study analyzes how and under what conditions technical cooperation may generate larger effects on endogenous and long-term capacity development in developing countries. To this end, we use the case of national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory in Indonesia, where the task for producing GHG inventories was first outsourced to external experts through a dedicated project, but is now managed by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK). While investigating the long-term process through which the country developed its capacity on this issue, we evaluated how and the extent to which the five-year technical cooperation supported by Japan International Cooperation Agency contributed to this by generating catalytic effects. This paper contributes to and complements the existing literature by applying a model of strategic issue diagnosis, by which we traced the evolving issue interpretations at the ministry and their consequent actions. This study finds that the technical cooperation interacted with changes in the institutional environment, raising the issue urgency, feasibility, and interdependence as perceived at KLHK, creating momentum to change their situation, and igniting endogenous capacity development. The study highlights that, as the substantial uncertainty in their reported GHG inventories was identified through the technical cooperation, the issue came to be defined by the ministry as the problem to be solved. This paper identifies the country’s specific context as an important factor to explain a project’s catalytic effect, or the absence thereof. It emphasizes that contexts must be factored in when evaluating projects, as they are often embedded in longer timeframes and in the wider scope that goes beyond the direct beneficiaries.
    Keywords: Capacity development, climate change, issue interpretations, carbon emissions, Indonesia
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Tran, Quoc Duy; Huynh, Cong Minh
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on financial development proxied by Domestic credit/GDP and Money supply/GDP in ten ASEAN countries over the period 2000-2020. Results from fixed effects for panel data show that ICT stimulates financial development by both proxies. Remarkably, the impact of ICT on financial development proxied by Money supply/GDP is stronger than that proxied by Domestic credit/GDP, implying the important channel of Money supply/GDP through which ICT can stimulate financial development. In addition, other important determinants of financial development are confirmed in the context of ASEAN countries, including economic growth, trade openness, and urbanization. The findings consolidate the utilization of ICT to boost financial development in ASEAN countries.
    Keywords: ASEAN countries; Financial development; ICT
    JEL: L96 O16 O32 O33
    Date: 2022–01–11
  6. By: Duncan Webb (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: A large literature points towards the importance of early life circumstance in determining long-run human capital and wellbeing outcomes. This literature often justifies a focus on the very early years by citing the first 1000 days of life as a 'critical period' for child development, but this notion has rarely been directly tested. In a setting in which children are potentially subject to shocks in every year of their childhood, I estimate the impact of early life weather shocks on adult cognitive and socioemotional outcomes for individuals born in rural Indonesia between 1988 and 2000. There is a strong critical period for these shocks at age 2 for cognitive development, but no similar critical period for socioemotional development. The impacts of the shocks are likely to be taking place through nutritional and agricultural income channels. These impacts are initially latent, only appearing after age 15. I show suggestive evidence for dynamic complementarity in early life investments.
    Keywords: Critical period,Human capital,Early childhood development,Dynamic complementarity
    Date: 2022–01
  7. By: Chow, Hwee Kwan (Singapore Management University); Choy, Keen Meng
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive ability and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the Covid-19 epidemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we utilise a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting record for GDP growth and CPI inflation. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure in the pandemic crisis and test for behavioural explanations of the possible sources of forecast errors such as leader following and herding behaviour. Using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution forecasts, we then study how the degree of consensus and subjective uncertainty among forecasters are affected by the heightened economic uncertainty during crises. We found the behaviour of forecasters do not differ much between the two crisis episodes for growth projections despite major differences between the two crises. As for inflation forecasts, our findings suggest forecasters suffer less from forecast inertia when predicting short term one-quarter ahead inflation as compared to longer term one-year and two-year ahead inflation.
    Keywords: Survey data; COVID-19; leader following and herding behaviour; disagreement; uncertainty
    JEL: D80 E17
    Date: 2022–02–07
  8. By: Bunyada Laoprapassorn
    Abstract: How does the market power along the agricultural value chains mediate the effects of policies on the welfare of farmers? Using microdata on farmers and rice mills in Thailand, I document heterogeneity in the spatial density of rice mills. I further provide reduced-form evidence that a one standard deviation increase in local competition among rice mills leads to a 7.7% increase in farmer prices. Informed by the empirical findings, I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model that accounts for the market power and entry-location choices of intermediaries. I then simulate two policy counterfactuals. I find that gains to farmers from a country-wide improvement in road infrastructure are regressive; the percentage increase in income of the top decile farmers is on average 11% larger than that of the bottom decile. Changes in the entry decisions of the rice mills further exacerbate the regressive effect, more than doubling the gap between the percentage change in income of the top and bottom decile farmers. The second counterfactual simulation shows that the market power of intermediaries could lead to a lower than socially optimal level of technology adoption among farmers.
    Keywords: Intermediaries; Spatial Competition; Trade costs
    JEL: D43 F12 L13 O13
    Date: 2022–01
  9. By: Alexandre Berthe,; Pascale Turquet,; Huynh Thi Phuong Linh.
    Abstract: The link between social protection and the environment is expected to become a growing policy intervention area in Southeast Asia. Based on a systematic review of the academic and institutional literature, this article proposes identifying the different possible visions of the link between social protection and environmental issues and their operationalization. By clustering the papers based on a reading grid proposed by the authors, the research shows this literature for the Mekong area is not very developed to date and most of the selected papers’ approach seem only to leave room for disaster response and assistance. The article also raises the question of the perimeter and very definition of social protection in these changing contexts and shows it is becoming necessary to build multilevel common socio-ecological systems.
    Keywords: Asie et Pacifique
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2022–01–27
  10. By: Owen Thompson (Williams College)
    Abstract: Racial segregation can occur across educational programs or classrooms within a given school, and there has been particular concern that gifted and talented programs may reduce integration within schools. This paper evaluates the contribution of gifted and talented education to racial segregation using data on the presence and racial composition of gifted and talented programs at virtually all US elementary schools over a span of nine school years. I first show that, consistent with widespread perceptions, gifted and talented programs do disproportionately enroll white and Asian students while Black, Hispanic and Native American students are underrepresented. However, I also show that accounting for the within- school racial sorting caused by these programs has little or no effect on standard measures of overall racial segregation. This is primarily because gifted and talented programs are a small share of total enrollments and do enroll non-negligible numbers of under-represented minority students. I also estimate changes in race-specific enrollments after schools initiate or discontinue gifted and talented programs, and find no significant enrollment changes after programs are eliminated or initiated. I conclude that gifted and talented education is a quantitatively small contributor to racial segregation in US elementary schools, and that evaluations of these programs should be based primarily on how they impact participating and non-participating students, not on their contributions to racial segregation.
    Keywords: Racial, Segregation, Education, Gifted, Talented,
    JEL: I24 J15
    Date: 2021–12–10
  11. By: Yann Bramoullé (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Pauline Morault (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)
    Abstract: Historically and in many parts of the developing world, ethnic minorities have played a central role in the economy. Examples include Chinese throughout South-east Asia, Indians in East Africa, and Jews in medieval Europe. These rich minorities are often subject to popular violence and extortion, and are treated ambiguously by local politicians. We analyse the impact of the presence of a rich ethnic minority on violence and on interactions between a rent-seeking local elite and a poor majority. We find that the local elite can always make use of the rich minority to maintain its hold on power. When the threat of violence is high, the government may change its economic policies strategically to sacrifice the minority to popular resentment. We investigate the conditions under which such instrumental scapegoating emerges, and the forms it takes. We then introduce some social integration, capturing, for instance, mixed marriages and shared education. Social integration reduces violence and yields qualitative changes in economic policies. Overall, our results help to explain documented patterns of violence and segregation.
    Keywords: elites,popular violence,ethnic minority,scapegoat
    Date: 2021–07
  12. By: Santarelli, Enrico; Staccioli, Jacopo; Vivarelli, Marco
    Abstract: Using the entire population of USPTO patent applications published between 2002 and 2019, and leveraging on both patent classification and semantic analysis, this paper aims to map the current knowledge base centred on robotics and AI technologies. These technologies are investigated both as a whole and distinguishing core and related innovations, along a 4-level core-periphery architecture. Merging patent applications with the Orbis IP firm-level database allows us to put forward a twofold analysis based on industry of activity and geographic location. In a nutshell, results show that: (i) rather than representing a technological revolution, the new knowledge base is strictly linked to the previous technological paradigm; (ii) the new knowledge base is characterised by a considerable - but not impressively widespread - degree of pervasiveness; (iii) robotics and AI are strictly related, converging (particularly among the related technologies and in more recent times) and jointly shaping a new knowledge base that should be considered as a whole, rather than consisting of two separate GPTs; (iv) the US technological leadership turns out to be confirmed (although declining in relative terms in favour of Asian countries such as South Korea, China and, more recently, India).
    Keywords: Robotics,Artificial Intelligence,General Purpose Technology,Technological Paradigm,Industry 4.0,Patents full-text
    JEL: O33
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Vincent Chatellier (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thierry Pouch (URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, APCA - Assemblée Permanente des Chambres d'Agriculture)
    Abstract: World agri-food trade has been growing steadily for several decades under the influence of a growing demand for food, particularly in Asia and Africa, and of an unequal territorial distribution of agronomic and productive potential. With a trade balance in agri-food products of nearly 40 billion euros in 2020, and moreover an improvement compared to the period before the Covid-19 health crisis, the European Union (EU-27) has become a major player in this trade. At the same time, it is the world's leading exporter and importer. Within the EU, competition between Member States has been particularly fierce in recent years, to the detriment of France, whose agri-food balance is deteriorating. Using information from three databases (Baci, Comext and French Customs), an analysis of the main trade dynamics is conducted here for the agri-food sector over a 20-year period (2000 to 2020).
    Abstract: Le commerce agroalimentaire mondial connait un développement soutenu depuis plusieurs décennies sous l'influence d'une demande alimentaire en croissance, notamment en Asie et en Afrique, et d'une répartition territoriale inégale des potentiels agronomiques et productifs. Avec un solde commercial en produits agroalimentaires de près de 40 milliards d'euros en 2020, de surcroît en amélioration par rapport à la période antérieure à la crise sanitaire de la Covid-19, l'Union européenne (UE-27) est devenue un acteur majeur de ce commerce. Elle cumule, en même temps, la première position mondiale tant des pays exportateurs et que des pays importateurs. Au sein de l'UE, la concurrence entre les Etats membres est particulièrement vive depuis quelques années, au détriment de la France dont le solde agroalimentaire se dégrade. En utilisant les informations issues de trois bases de données (Baci, Comext et Douanes françaises), une analyse des principales dynamiques commerciales est conduite ici pour le secteur agroalimentaire, et sur une période de 20 ans (2000 à 2020).
    Keywords: Agri-food trade,Exports,Imports,Competitiveness,EU,Commerce agroalimentaire,Exportations,Importations,Compétitivité,UE,France
    Date: 2021–12–09
  14. By: Charlotte Bilo (IPC-IG); Roberta Brito (IPC-IG); Aline Peres (IPC-IG); Mariana Balboni (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis has had a huge impact on the world of social protection. The pandemic has alerted national governments and the international community to the urgency of accelerating progress in building and expanding social protection systems and programmes to leave no one behind. From 5 to 8 October 2020, the team organised a global e-conference titled ‘Turning the COVID-19 crisis into an opportunity: What’s next for social protection?’. To further disseminate its key discussions, the platform and the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) have developed two special issues of Policy in Focus. This first issue focuses on experiences from countries in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as the overall lessons for the future, including shock-responsive and universal social protection.
    Keywords: Social protection; COVID-19
    Date: 2021–03

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