|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Does identification with dominant ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper contributes to the comparative analysis of the role of ethnic background in shaping attitudes towards government's role in reducing income inequalities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, where nearly half-abillion people live and belong to more than sixty ethnic groups. Using a pool of nationallyrepresentative survey data from the five Southeast Asian countries, we first classified the respondents by population dominance of the ethnic groups they claim to belong, and then examine for differences across members of dominant ethnic groups in their preferences for government redistribution. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. No systematic differences in their redistributive preferences are found, however, between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller groups. The results are fairly robust even after accounting for the possible moderating effects of income status, trust in government and in people, subjective social mobility, concerns about social fairness, and views on the importance of fate in one's life. Moreover, the results hold out even in the sub-sample of low-income people for whom economic considerations more than ethnicity are expected to determine their redistributive preferences. Notwithstanding the importance of shared norms or beliefs in aligning he social choices of people with same ethnic or racial background, our results suggest their population sizes, which possibly reflect their relative influence over domestic policies, also matter. |
| Keywords: | Redistribution; ethnic dominance; income inequality; social mobility; trust; Southeast Asia |
| JEL: | H20 H53 I39 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202103&r= |
| By: | Marjorie C. Pajaron (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Recent data on COVID-19 would suggest that no country is inured to the adverse effects of this disease. Although experts somehow agree on the virulence of the COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2), it is puzzling why some countries have experienced the full brunt of the virus while others appear to have been totally spared. This paper examines one possible reason for the seemingly capricious nature of this virus. We compare the timing of the government response (travel restrictions and social distancing measures) of the ten ASEAN member countries and the incidence of COVID-19. Our preliminary results suggest that countries that responded relatively late (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand), when the local human-to-human transmission was already intense, have experienced a relatively high incidence of COVID-19 with the exception of Singapore and Cambodia. Further and more rigorous (regression) analysis is planned, conditional on data availability. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Cross-country analysis; ASEAN |
| JEL: | H12 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202010&r= |
| By: | Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Does identification with dominant ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper contributes to the comparative analysis of the role of ethnic background in shaping attitudes towards government's role in reducing income inequalities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, where nearly half-abillion people live and belong to more than sixty ethnic groups. Using a pool of nationallyrepresentative survey data from the five Southeast Asian countries, we first classified the respondents by population dominance of the ethnic groups they claim to belong, and then examine for differences across members of dominant ethnic groups in their preferences for government redistribution. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. No systematic differences in their redistributive preferences are found, however, between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller groups. The results are fairly robust even after accounting for the possible moderating effects of income status, trust in government and in people, subjective social mobility, concerns about social fairness, and views on the importance of fate in one's life. Moreover, the results hold out even in the sub-sample of low-income people for whom economic considerations more than ethnicity are expected to determine their redistributive preferences. Notwithstanding the importance of shared norms or beliefs in aligning he social choices of people with same ethnic or racial background, our results suggest their population sizes, which possibly reflect their relative influence over domestic policies, also matter. |
| Keywords: | Government assistance; trust in officials; satisfaction with performance; treatment effects; Philippines |
| JEL: | H31 H49 D72 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202104&r= |
| By: | Toby Melissa C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Sara Jane Ahmed (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Golda P. Hilario (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | In its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, the Philippines committed to a GHG emissions reduction/avoidance of 75 percent for the period 2020 to 2030, referenced against a projected business-as-usual cumulative emission for the same period. However, the numbers do not add up, critical sectors such as forestry, which is central to the country’s climate change response, are excluded, and government is unconditionally committed to just 4 percent of that target. This begs the question of how the NDC squares with the country’s high level policy clarity and urgency on climate action, including the requirement to infuse all development plans and policies with it. A resetting of the NDC may therefore be warranted so that both national imperatives for climate risk resilience and climate smart development and global mitigation requirements are better served: an NDC that is based on first principles, with programs and measures anchored on adaptation/resilience and driven by their impact sustainable development rather than by GHG emissions reductions per se. This is not the standard ‘decarbonization’ path but a path that recognizes that highly vulnerable countries with relatively small carbon footprints per capita like the Philippines are likely to do more for global efforts to reduce the extent of climate change and cope with its impacts if they build robust community ownership for climate action and leverage opportunities based on their own comparative advantages; one comparative advantage of the Philippines is the biodiversity of its marine and coastal resources. This approach also recognizes that climate change impacts will be dire even if global warming is successfully limited to 1.5 degrees. Thus adaptation and resilience are imperatives for all countries and national contributions that are organized to support these efforts will be vital. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Climate policy; Development Policy; Emissions; Philippines; ASEAN |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 O53 O21 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202105&r= |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Margarita Debuque-Gonzales (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This chapter discusses infrastructure development in the Philippines under decentralization using illustrations mainly in the water sector. It opens up a study of the constraints and challenges in governance and regulation that local government units (LGUs) face in narrowing down the infrastructure gaps in their various jurisdictions. To enable LGUs’ project proposals to get into the priority public investment program of the national government, the former must have skilled human resources capable of conducting the technical, legal, and financial analysis required. In governance, they must be able to navigate the complexities of water-pricing regulation. At the start, LGUs will need a good deal of technical, legal, and financial assistance from the national government in raising their capacity to overcome the challenges. However, through learning-by doing and as LGUs are able to mobilize additional resources using their power to impose tax and non-tax measures, decentralized infrastructure development can take off, guided by an effective division of labor between the national government and LGUs. |
| Keywords: | decentralization; infrastructure development; governance and regulation; Philippines |
| JEL: | H7 O5 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202012&r= |
| By: | Attila Gaspar; Tommaso Giommoni; Massimo Morelli; Antonio Nicolò |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that corruption generates extremism, but almost exclusively on the opposition side. When the majority has greater ability to use corruption to obtain her favorite policy outcome from the minority, then the minority group has an incentive to select a more extreme representative because it is more unlikely that such a type will accept a bribe. On the majority side, on the other hand, the perception of more likely use of the corruption tool does not create any distortion in the choice of political representatives. We provide strong causal evidence for these novel predictions using two different types of corruption signals, in Indonesia and Brazil. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Extremism, Delegation, elections |
| JEL: | D72 D73 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp21163&r= |
| By: | Miwa Nakai; Majah-Leah V. Ravago; Yoichi Miyaoka; Kiyoshi Saito; Toshi. H Arimura |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to examine consumer behaviour concerning energy-efficient appliances in the context of a developing country. As a case study, we use the Philippines, one of the earliest countries in Southeast Asia to introduce appliance test standards. We conducted face-to-face surveys of potential purchasers of air conditioners (ACs) in Metropolitan Manila, where the percentage of AC owners has increased as a result of economic growth. The survey includes choice experiment questions to estimate preferences for AC attributes, including purchase price, additional functions, country of manufacturer and energy efficiency information. In addition, we examine the types of information on eco labels that encourage consumers to choose an energy-efficient AC, including the default option of an energy efficiency ratio, estimated cost per hour or an energy star rating. Our choice experiment analysis reveals that energy-efficient ACs made by domestic manufacturers with smart functions are more likely to be chosen by consumers. We find that the probability of an energy-efficient AC being chosen can be increased by approximately 15% if the eco label uses an energy star rating rather than an energy efficiency ratio. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e166&r= |
| By: | Toby C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Orville Jose C. Solon (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Joy V. Abrenica (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Agustin L. Arcenas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni C. Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Aleli D. Kraft (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Renato E. Reside Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | No abstract |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202004&r= |
| By: | Julian Thomas B. Alvarez (Asian Development Bank); Jahm Mae E. Guinto (Asian Development Bank and University of the Philip[pines); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Unlike in previous crises, the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought a crisis affecting all population groups, all economic sectors and all jurisdictions in the Philippines, as elsewhere. The impact of the COVID-19 vary across localities, however, partly due to differences in local government responses to the pandemic. Our objective is to examine the patterns in the types and timing of local responses among neighboring local government units (cities) for evidence of oneupmanship among their incumbent leaders (mayors). We assembled data for 25 selected cities and then grouped them into 28 neighborhood clusters. Using three indicators, we measure the immediacy, primacy and distinctiveness of the local responses within each cluster over the period March 2020-March 2021. Of the 28 clusters, we find in 19 (67.9 percent) evidence of oneupmanship consistent with the view that the type and timing of local responses are driven by mayors who wish to signal their talents and abilities. Further, mayors who face greater election competition pressures (low vote margin, many rivals) tend to implement responses ahead or uniquely of others. Thus, some leaders are able to turn the COVID-19 crisis into an opportunity to demonstrate their competence to their constituents, presumably to improve their popularity and re-election prospects. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; local responses; one-upmanship; yardstick competition; Philippines |
| JEL: | D72 H73 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202102&r= |
| By: | Orville Jose C. Solon (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Toby C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Renato E. Reside Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Joy V. Abrenica (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Agustin L. Arcenas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Sarah Lynne Daway-Ducanes (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni C. Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Carlo Irwin A. Panelo (University of the Philippines College of Medicine) |
| Abstract: | No abstract |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202006&r= |
| By: | Edita A, Tan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The paper puts together the very alarming poor state of the Philippines education system from basic to higher education based on recent available data from international and local sources. It points to the central role of universities as producers of the principal learning inputs for all levels. Considering the poor state of higher education with only a handful of high quality universities that produce a very small output of graduates with advanced degree especially in STEM fields, the paper proposes a massive scholarship program for advanced degrees to strengthen and expand the country's ten best universities. They would be the seed to strengthen other universities and the other institutions. |
| Keywords: | Philippines; education |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202101&r= |
| By: | Claver Sanz, Raúl |
| Abstract: | This work explores the degree of intergenerational transmission of education for a sample of more than 19 developing countries for the geographical area that makes up the Asian region, over a time horizon from 1870 to 2010. The quantification of this transmission has revealed considerably high intergenerational correlation indices of more than 0.5, showing a very high transmission of education from one generation to the next, severely constraining patterns of evolution and development and thus stagnating overall growth. In this sense, it documents how this trend towards a lack of intergenerational educational mobility has been one of the reasons for the stagnation of economic growth and development in this region. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Transmission, Education, Asia. |
| JEL: | I24 I25 N30 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111792&r= |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This paper opens up a study of economic convergence in Asia. This convergence refers to the ability of developing economies to catch up with the developed ones in terms of levels and growth rates of real per capita GDP. The study uses the lens of neoclassical growth models, both the basic models of Robert Solow and Trevor Swan, along with the models of Robert Lucas Jr. and Paul Romer in endogenous growth theory to interpret observed growth in Asia. Data are taken from the 45 developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank. The study supports conditional convergence but not absolute convergence. That is the lagging economies can catch up with the leading economies provided the former can adopt advanced technologies, such as, those that feature human-capital investments, learning-by-doing and increasing returns from knowledge accumulation. |
| Keywords: | economic convergence; neoclassical growth models; Asia |
| JEL: | N15 O11 O42 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202009&r= |
| By: | F\'elix Lirio-Loli; William Dextre-Mart\'inez |
| Abstract: | Introduction: This study analyzes the scientific production in business administration in scientific articles based on modeling partial least squares structural equations (Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling PLS-SEM) in the 2011-2020 period. Methodology: The study is exploratory - descriptive and has three phases: a) Selection of keywords and search criteria; (b) Search and refinement of information; c) information analysis. A method of bibliometric review of the specific literature has been used based on the analysis of predefined indicators and completed with a qualitative content synthesis. Results: A total of 167 publications were analyzed, making correlations from the year, search criteria, authors, impact factor by quartile, and by citation variables. More outstanding scientific production comes from Scopus under the search criteria ((pls AND sem) OR "partial least squares") AND (business OR management), being the figure of 4,870 scientific articles, while Web of Science accumulates 3,946 articles Conclusion: There has been a progressive growth in scientific articles with the PLS-SEM technique from 2011 to 2020. Scopus, compared to WoS, presents a more significant number of scientific productions with this statistical approach. The authors who register scientific articles demonstrate a high H index; in addition, there is an important number of scientific articles with a PLS-SEM approach in universities in Malaysia that could be related to the expansion of higher education in that country, as well as in Singapore, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Finally, business administration, accounting, and economics are outstanding scientific production. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02760&r= |
| By: | Ernesto M. Pernia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | "Health is wealth," though a cliché, has scarcely been uttered during this coronavirus pandemic. Not surprising as it has become second nature to individuals, while what we have is a public health crisis. So more appropriate is "health is economy." Indeed, health and economy are intimately linked and interactive -- sound public health is good for the productivity and sustainability of the economy which, in turn, generates jobs and goods needed for a healthy population. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippine economy; Philippines |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202013&r= |
| By: | Liu, Anyu (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | In the globalization era, many products in the tourism industry are imported from other economies; whereas other products may be exported as intermediates to other economies. Researchers have assessed the economic impact of tourism for more than 40 years, but have shed little light on the economic impact on economies in the global value chain. To fill this gap, this analysis used the multiregional input–output table with 35 industries and 63 economies to comprehensively examine the economic contribution of tourism to Thailand as well as to the global economy. Findings suggest that tourism in Thailand generates significant economic impact on output and value added. The industry has stronger intra-spillover and linkage with domestic industries, particularly downstream industries, and weaker connections with industries in other economies in the global supply chain. The multiregional input–output model also reveals that it can measure the export performance of the industry more accurately than the traditional input–output model. Findings generate comprehensive empirical results for destinations and regional organizations to more accurately strategize tourism or regional tourism development plans. |
| Keywords: | multiregional input–output model; global value chain; economic impact; tourism development |
| JEL: | R15 Z32 |
| Date: | 2022–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0646&r= |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This paper opens up a study of deficit financing and management of the public debt in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Philippines. Borrowings of the national government from the monetary authority and from domestic and international financial markets, as well as the options for exiting from the public debt enlarged by such borrowings are assessed. At this juncture, public spending to strengthen social safety nets for truly disadvantaged families and firms are imperatives, but taxation that relieves big corporations and shifts to households and small firms the recovery of foregone corporate income taxes through burdensome indirect taxes must be shunned. Meanwhile, growing out of the public debt through sound monetary policy and structural reforms that embrace rise in total factor productivity is the least painful option to exit out of the newly expanded public debt. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; public debt management; deficit financing; Philippines |
| JEL: | E5 O4 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202011&r= |
| By: | Vos, Rob; Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | Child labour in agriculture remains a global concern. Agriculture is the sector where most child labour is found. Employment of children mostly relates to farm household poverty in developing countries. This raises the question of the extent to which the modernisation of agriculture prevents the use of child labour while also leading to higher productivity. One of the central questions in this context is whether agricultural mechanisation helps limit children’s employment. Available studies have put forward opposing hypotheses, but rigorous empirical evidence is scant. The present study aims to fill some of this void by studying the evidence from comparable farm household survey data in seven developing countries, including three in Asia (India, Nepal, and Vietnam) and four in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania). Various key findings emerge. First, many children are found to engage in productive activities in studied countries. The prevalence is particularly high in African countries, such as in Ethiopia where more than one third of children aged 5-14 years engage in farm or off-farm work. Second, while the prevalence of child labour in agriculture (i.e., when productive engagement is detrimental to schooling and child growth) is much lower (at 10% or less in seven countries), they are still sizable in absolute terms; at least 6 million children in these countries partake in agricultural work at the expense of opportunities in adulthood. Third, agricultural mechanization, reflected in farm household’s use of machinery such as tractors, significantly reduces the likelihood of use of children’s labour and increases school attendance. Fourth, the measured impacts of mechanization are only modest, however, and likely indirect, that is, dependent on the extent to which mechanization helps improve household income and on local conditions (such as quality of rural infrastructure and accessibility of education and other social services). Overall, promotion of agricultural mechanization can help prevent use of child labour. To be truly impactful, however, related support measures should be embedded in broader strategies to enable agricultural productivity growth and improve livelihoods of poor rural households. |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; NEPAL; VIET NAM; VIETNAM; SOUTH EAST ASIA; ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; GHANA; WEST AFRICA; NIGERIA; TANZANIA; employment; children; labour; agriculture; child labour; agricultural mechanization; developing countries; farms; households |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2080&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Jan Carlo Punongbayan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Part of a proposed anthology, this article provides a concise review of the economic performance during the period of the Marcos dictatorship (1972-1985) from a comparative historical perspective. We examine the external events and internal policy responses that made possible the high growth in the early years of martial law and show that these are integral to explaining the decline and ultimate collapse of the economy in 1984-1985. The macroeconomic, trade, and debt policies pursued by the Marcos regime—particularly its failure to shift the country onto a sustainable growth path—are explained in the context of the regime’s larger political-economic programme of holding on to power and seeking rents. |
| Keywords: | martial law, Philippine economy, economic history, political economy |
| JEL: | N15 O53 P48 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202107&r= |
| By: | Adrian R. Mendoza (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | In light of the unprecedented mutation of the COVID-19 pandemic into a global economic recession, the WTO projects world trade volume to plummet by a staggering 13 percent to 32 percent in 2020. This translates to large-scale losses in global output and employment, especially in trade-oriented emerging economies such as the Philippines. Recovering from this dystopic scenario greatly depends on the duration of the outbreak, the downside risks from protectionist tendencies, the severity of the global recession, and the ability of world leaders to come up with a coordinated policy response. This paper provides a quick assessment of the major risks that must be dealt with to overcome these "four horsemen of trade apocalypse". Anchored on the WTO projections, this paper also assesses the short term prospects for Philippine trade. The results of the forecasting exercise suggest that Philippine merchandise exports could plummet in 2020 by 17.2 percent in the optimistic scenario and 39.5 percent in the pessimistic scenario. Compared to the pre-pandemic government target, the pessimistic case suggests that the country could lose up to US$31 billion export revenues this year due to the COVID-19 crisis. Merchandise imports will also experience a similar decline, albeit less severe. While the negative impact will likely be felt by all sectors, the biggest plunge is expected to be in electronics and other industries that are strongly connected to global production networks. On a positive note, Philippine exports and imports are expected to recover in 2021, albeit not fully, if the global public health crisis is resolved sooner than later. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; global recession; trade collapse; Philippine exports and imports; 2020 projections |
| JEL: | F01 F13 F17 F42 F50 F60 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202005&r= |
| By: | Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Adrian Mendoza (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Stella Luz Quimbo (House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City) |
| Abstract: | We use a unique Philippine firm-level database consisting of trade transactions data merged with firm surveys of manufacturing establishments covering the period from 2013 to 2019 to examine which exporting and importing firms are potentially vulnerable to the economic slowdown brought about by the spread of COVID-19. We find that the exposure of Philippine trade to the COVID-19 affected countries is substantial, accounting for more than half of the value of both exports and imports. Those that stand to lose the most are firms connected to the global value chains that simultaneously export and import. Around 370,000 workers from these firms are at risk. While large firms are able to withstand, to some extent,the COVID-19 shock, SMEs do not have such capability. We find that the profile of these SMEs is substantially different than that of the larger firms in terms of product composition. These SMEs export food and food products which are highly perishable and more sensitive even to short-term vicissitudes in global demand. Given these, we estimate the subsidy needed to support both SMEs and large firms. For SMEs, we compute the subsidy to be Php9.4 billion pesos for 2020. The amount of subsidy increases to Php33.2 billion if large firms were also subsidized for their losses. Identifying the specific mechanism by which such subsidies will be provided to firms of various sizes (e.g. SMEs vs large) requires further study. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippine Firms; Stimulus Package |
| JEL: | O14 L11 H25 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202001&r= |
| By: | Matteo Bonato (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa; IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France); Oguzhan Cepni (Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16A, Frederiksberg DK-2000, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We find that climate-related risks forecast the intraday-data-based realized volatility of exchange-rate returns of eight major fossil fuel-exporters (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, and South Africa). We study a wide array of metrics capturing risks associated with climate change, derived from data directly on variables such as, for example, abnormal patterns of temperature. We control for various other moments (realized skewness, realized kurtosis, realized good and variance, upside and downside tail risk, and jumps) and estimate our forecasting models using random forests, a machine-learning technique tailored to analyze models with many predictors. |
| Keywords: | Climate Risks, Commodity Currencies, Realized Variance, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C53 F31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202210&r= |
| By: | Alfredo R. Paloyo (University of Wollongong (Australia)); Cielo Magno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Laarni Escresa (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Ma. Christina Epetia (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The world is facing its biggest public health crisis in a century. Managing this crisis requires an intentional contraction of the economy of unprecedented proportions. This deliberate and unavoidable drawdown in market activity will put businesses at risk of destruction, with hundreds of thousands of Filipinos likely to lose their source of livelihood. Many households will be plunged into poverty. Without assistance, those who are already poor will find themselves at the literal threshold of life and death as they battle both the virus that is ravaging their health and well-being, and the economic hardship that will almost certainly exact a social--if not physical--death. The government must act quickly to ensure that businesses can survive, jobs are secure, and the most vulnerable members of society are protected. The message must be decisive and formidable: "We will not let businesses fail, and we will not let people go hungry--whatever it takes." Our plan begins with recognizing that the economic contraction is immediate and sharp--but temporary. There will be a real output loss in the economy, but this is necessary to contain the spread of the virus. The objective is to alleviate the economic, social, and psychological hardships caused by the reduction in economic activity and to minimize any permanent damage to the economy. Doing this will involve providing emergency financial and nonfinancial aid to the most vulnerable households, guaranteeing continuity for businesses and maintaining the employment of their workers, and creating an economic environment which will allow the economy to recover quickly and continue on a growth trajectory when the public health crisis eventually wanes. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Social Protection; Philippine Recovery |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202002&r= |
| By: | Chan Mono Oum (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | The new economics of labour migration (NELM) suggests that migration substitutes for inaccessible credit markets. However, in a paradigm shift towards profit orientation, microfinance organizations in developing countries offer greater access to credit to potential migrants. That casts doubt on the prior understanding of the link between access to microcredit and migration. Exploiting survey data from 422 households in the northern part of Cambodia, this study examines the relationship between microcredit borrowing and migration decisions through the NELM theory in the South-South Migration (SSM) perspective. We employ the Endogenous Switching Probit model (ESP) to control for selection bias in borrowing decisions and the structural differences between borrowing and non-borrowing decisions that influence migration decisions. After instrumenting, the findings suggest that households with access to credit are more likely to have migrated family members than their non-borrowing counterparts, refuting the notion of migration as a substitute for credit. Household with borrowings from financial institution increase the likelihood of migrating by 5.6 percent while households with informal borrowing have a propensity to migrate about 3.2 percent. Our results have a number of policy implications, including guiding policymakers in rethinking the role of microcredit provision and redesigning microfinance programmes to maximise the return on labour migration. |
| Keywords: | formal credit; informal credit; microcredit; migration decisions; Cambodia |
| JEL: | F22 G51 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:22/01&r= |
| By: | Chan Mono Oum (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the direct impact of remittances on household debt performance and levels of indebtedness using survey data from 422 households in the northern part of Cambodia. We employ the Two-Step Heckman selection model to alleviate concerns regarding the endogeneity issues derived from self-selection bias, reverse causation, and omitted variable bias. The Tobit model is then employed to estimate household debt performance and the indebtedness impact of remittances. We first show that remittances are viewed as transitory incomes tending to decay as a migrant's length of stay outside the household increases. In the second stage of estimation, remittances positively affect household debt performance, particularly in low debt performance households. Remittances are also found to reduce household indebtedness in the recipient households. Because remittances contribute to reducing household indebtedness, which is a critical component in the financial system, policy responses should be targeted toward lowering the actual cost of sending remittances and thereby enabling migrant workers, and their left-behind household the ability to access formal and digitalized platforms in order to sending and receiving remittances. |
| Keywords: | remittances; household indebtedness; debt performance; Cambodia |
| JEL: | F24 R23 G51 D15 |
| Date: | 2022–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:22/02&r= |
| By: | Patricia Arttachariya (Institute of International Studies, Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok) |
| Abstract: | The use of plastic, in many forms, is ubiquitous. Plastic is found in many of our day-to-day products and even though plastic has several useful applications, plastic waste has a detrimental impact on the environment and is life-threatening to humans, animals, and many marine species. The main aim of this exploratory study is to investigate the influence of internal (environmental knowledge and concern), and external factors (interpersonal influence and media) on Gen Y Thai consumers’ environmental attitude and behavior relating to plastic pollution. Gen Y consumers are the focus of this study because they account for nearly a third of Thailand's population with high income and spending potential. A total of 550 questionnaires were distributed to Gen Y consumers in 7 areas in the Central Business District of Bangkok, of which 396 were considered valid and used for the analysis. Three hypotheses posited in the study were tested using Simple Regression analysis. The findings showed that both external factors (environmental knowledge and environmental concern) as well as internal factors (interpersonal influence and media) influenced environmental attitude. Environment attitude, in turn, was found to have a significant influence on behavior related to plastic pollution. The findings provide several useful suggestions for policymakers, marketers, and the general public toward inculcating better waste management practices in the Thai context. |
| Keywords: | Plastic pollution, Generation Y, Environmental Concern, Interpersonal Influence |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:lpaper:0063&r= |
| By: | Renato E. Reside, Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This short piece discusses the results of simple regression analysis using cross country data to determine the factors that have influenced fluctuations in real output during the covid-19 pandemic period. Focus is on explaining not only output growth from 2020 to the first half of 2021, but also the length or duration of recessions. The most prominent factors influencing growth include the ability of a country to contain the spread of infections and vaccinate their population. The size of the covid19-induced fiscal stimulus, also matters, especially health care spending. However, the relationship is nonlinear. Beyond a certain point, fiscal spending leads to lower quarterly growth. Policy recommendations are given. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, fiscal policy, government expenditures, covid19, crisis management |
| JEL: | E6 E62 E65 H11 H12 H51 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202108&r= |
| By: | Ian Nicole A. Generalao (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Using the task-based framework, this study measures the level of skill transferability across occupations by building an occupational distance measure. The distance measure allows us to compare occupations in terms of their task profiles. Skill transferability between two occupations is high if the occupations are ‘close’ with each other and low if occupations are ‘far’ from each. In addition, the distance measure allows us to classify which occupational moves are considered an upskilling, down-skilling or lateral occupational moves. The occupational distance measure is also applied to the sample of TVET graduates to measure their level of occupational mobility pre- and post-training. This has important implications in terms of the amount of additional training and education needed by individuals to move from one occupation to another. This study constitutes a basis for further studies on understanding the relationship among occupational distances, mobility and wage differentials in different economies. |
| Keywords: | Tasks; Skills; Human Capital; Occupational Mobility |
| JEL: | J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202008&r= |
| By: | SA Quimbo (House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City); CT Latinazo (House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City); JW Peabody (QURE Healthcare, UCSF and UCLA) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 risk assessment is multi-faceted. The highly infectious nature of the virus in a naïve population, the high case fatality rate and health system over-burdening each need to be considered in developing a strategy to control the spread of the virus and mitigate its health and economic consequences. This note provides a framework for classifying LGUs by degree of risk and identifies policy options for each risk scenario. It urges the Department of Health (DOH) to: (i) re-assess risk levels of local government units (LGUs), (ii) undertake a 100 percent identification of place of residence of all COVID-19 confirmed cases and 100 percent reporting of number of isolation beds and ventilators by all hospitals, and (iii) develop and immediately implement a COVID-specific disease surveillance protocol, including mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantine. Careful and diligent implementation of these protocols will allow a gradual yet cautious and informed re-opening of the economy. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Philippines; risk-assessment |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202007&r= |
| By: | Karsten Kohler; Engelbert Stockhammer |
| Abstract: | While flexible exchange rates are commonly regarded as shock absorbers, heterodox views suggest that they can play a pro-cyclical role in emerging markets. This article provides theoretical and empirical support for this view. Drawing on post-Keynesian and structuralist theory, we propose a simple model in which flexible exchange rates in conjunction with external shocks become endogenous drivers of boom-bust cycles, once financial effects from foreign-currency debt are accounted for. We present empirical evidence for regular cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates in several emerging markets that are closely aligned with cycles in economic activity. An econometric analysis suggests the presence of a cyclical interaction mechanism between exchange rates and output, in line with the theoretical model, in Chile, South Africa, and partly the Philippines. Further evidence indicates that such exchange rate cycles cannot exclusively be attributed to external factors, such as commodity prices, US monetary policy or the global financial cycle. We therefore argue that exchange rate cycles in emerging markets are driven by the interplay of external shocks and endogenous cycle mechanisms. Our argument implies that exchange rate management may be beneficial for macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, emerging markets, boom-bust cycles, structuralism, global financial cycle, commodity prices |
| JEL: | C32 E12 E32 F31 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2205&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | I provide a formal explanation of the relationship between the virtues of prudence, justice, and benevolence described by Adam Smith in the Theory of moral sentiments and connect these with the themes Smith subsequently discusses in the Wealth of nations. I contend that the other-regarding concerns Smith discusses as internally held virtues in TMS are presumed addressed instead by formal mechanisms in the WN -- particularly the third-party institutions of law and anonymous market exchange. |
| Keywords: | Adam Smith Problem; virtues; institutions; self-interest; altruism |
| JEL: | B12 B15 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202106&r= |