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on South East Asia |
| By: | Mitterling, Thomas (World Data Lab); Fenz, Katharina (World Data Lab); Martinez Jr, Arturo (Asian Development Bank); Bulan, Joseph (Asian Development Bank); Addawe, Mildred (Asian Development Bank); Durante, Ron Lester (Asian Development Bank); Martillan, Marymell (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Granular spatial information on the distributions of human population is relevant to a variety of fields like health, economics, and other areas of public sector planning. This paper applies ensemble methods and aims at assessing their applicability to analyzing and forecasting population density on a grid level. In a first step, we use a Random Forest approach to estimate population density in the Philippines and Thailand on a 100 meter by 100-meter level. Second, we use different specifications of Random Forest and Bayesian model averaging techniques to create forecasts of the grid-level population density in three Thailand provinces and evaluate their predictive power. |
| Keywords: | population mapping; big data; random forest estimation; Philippines; Thailand |
| JEL: | C19 D30 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0643&r= |
| By: | Mansur, Alfan; Nizar, Muhammad Afdi |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the development of the Indonesian financial sector, both in terms of depth, access, and efficiency. The analytical tool used is the same as Mansur and Nizar's study (2019) with data updating in the period 2019 to August 2020. The results obtained show that during the 2020 pandemic (January – August 2020) the depth of financial institutions as a whole experienced a contraction of 1.13 percent with the main contributor coming from banking. Meanwhile, financial market depth for the same period contracted by 3.51 percent with the main contributor coming from the stock market. Other results indicate that investors are turning to lower risk instruments, such as government securities during the pandemic. In terms of access, both access to financial institutions and access to financial markets have shown improvement. One thing that is positive in difficult times, like this pandemic. |
| Keywords: | access, Covid-19, depth, efficiency, financial institution, financial market |
| JEL: | G14 G17 G18 G21 G22 G23 G24 G28 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109336&r= |
| By: | Pauline Debanes; César Castellvi (CRCAO - Centre de recherche sur les civilisations de l'Asie Orientale - EPHE - École pratique des hautes études - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CdF (institution) - Collège de France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris); Monica Dwiyanti |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03468636&r= |
| By: | Bejeno, C.B. |
| Abstract: | The unjust (re)distribution of resources (in this case land) between and amongst classes and gender persists. Justice lens is explored here to better understand and intervene in the agrarian land concern. As oftentimes, gender justice on land is neglected or hardly advanced by the state, the social movement, and even by the women’s movement, the integrated justice approach is found here useful. In many experiences, including the Philippines, while peasant women lead and take the frontline roles in advancing land, the women’s strategic gender interests are, however, often neglected and overshadowed by class-based concerns. This paper argues that the class and gender-based land injustice are interconnectedly shaped by economic maldistribution, cultural misrecognition, and political misrepresentation. Thus, land question requires analyses and interventions that integrate the economic, cultural, and political aspects of justice or here coined as integrated justice approach. This approach becomes more relevant considering the on-going agrarian structure, which is often marred by violence from the opposing landlords and lack of political will from the agrarian program enforcers, operating through an outdated set of gendered norms and values. |
| Keywords: | Gender, integrated justice, land reform, (social) peasant movement, The Philippines. |
| Date: | 2021–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:136654&r= |
| By: | Samuel Bazzi; Lisa Cameron; Simone G. Schaner; Firman Witoelar |
| Abstract: | Job seekers often face substantial information frictions related to potential job quality. This is especially true in international labor markets, where intermediaries match prospective migrants with employers abroad. We conducted a randomized trial in Indonesia to explore how information about intermediary quality shapes migration choices and outcomes. Information reduces the migration rate, lowering use of low-quality intermediaries. However, workers who migrate receive better pre-departure preparation and have higher-quality job experiences abroad, despite no change in occupation or destination. Information does not change intentions to migrate or beliefs about the return to migration or intermediary quality. Nor does selection explain the improved outcomes for workers who choose to migrate with the information. Together, our findings are consistent with an increase in the option value of search: with better ability to differentiate offer quality, workers become choosier and ultimately have better migration experiences. This offers a new perspective on the importance of information and matching frictions in global labor markets. |
| JEL: | D83 F22 L15 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29588&r= |
| By: | Fajar, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to estimate the COVID-19 reproduction rate, vaccination coverage and forecast the next 20 days, which is useful as an anticipatory step for the COVID-19 pandemic. The benefits of research as a consideration in efforts to stop the spread of COVID-19. The method used in the study is the SIR model, exponential growth rate, maximum likelihood, time-dependent, and sequential bayesian to estimate COVID-19 reproduction rates, and to forecast using extreme learning machines (ELM). The data used in this study is the cumulative number of individual (cases) confirmed positive COVID-19 sourced from www.covid19.go.id. This study produced several conclusions, including: (1) that the R_0 value was 1.728 (> 1) and the R_1value ranged from 2.892 to 5.667 (> 1), meaning that the number of individuals infected with COVID-19 would increase until one day it would reach a stable point, (2) The number of individuals vaccination (if experts find COVID-19 vaccine) based on R_0 (V_(R_0 ) ) is 42.145%, and vaccination coverage based on R (V_R ) from four methods ranges from 75% to 86%, and (3) forecasting results for the next 20 days using ELM, obtained information that the number of cases will continue to increase to the point where the cumulative movement of the individual (cases) confirmed COVID-19 is stable (no trend). Tujuan studi ini adalah untuk mengestimasi angka reproduksi COVID-19, cakupan vaksinasi dan melakukan peramalan 20 hari kedepan, yang berguna sebagai untuk langkah antisipasi pandemik COVID-19. Manfaat penelitian sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam upaya menghentikan penyebaran COVID-19. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah model SIR, exponential growth rate, maximum likelihood, time dependent, dan bayesian sequential untuk mengestimasi angka reproduksi COVID-19, dan untuk peramalan menggunakan extreme learning machine (ELM). Adapun data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah data jumlah kumulatif individu (kasus) terkonfirmasi positif COVID-19 yang bersumber dari www.covid19.go.id. Penelitian ini menghasilkan beberapa kesimpulan antara lain: (1) bahwa nilai R_0 adalah 1.728 (> 1) dan nilai R berkisar antara 2.892 hingga 5.667 (> 1), artinya bahwa jumlah individu terinfeksi COVID-19 akan semakin meningkat hingga suatu saat nanti akan mencapai titik stabil, (2) Banyaknya individu yang perlu dilakukan vaksinasi (jika para ahli menemukan vaksin COVID-19) berdasarkan R_0 (V_(R_0 ) ) adalah sebesar 42.145%, dan cakupan vaksinasi berdasarkan R (V_R )dari empat metode berkisar antara 75% hingga 86%, dan (3) hasil peramalan untuk 20 hari ke depan dengan menggunakan ELM, diperoleh informasi bahwa jumlah kasus ini akan terus meningkat sampai pada titik dimana pergerakan jumlah kumulatif individu (kasus) terkonfirmasi COVID-19 stabil (tidak ada trend). |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, angka reproduksi, cakupan vaksinasi, peramalan. |
| JEL: | C10 C14 I19 |
| Date: | 2020–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105099&r= |
| By: | Nizar, Muhammad Afdi |
| Abstract: | This paper tries to analyze how the Covid-19 pandemic and economic conditions affect the demand for money and other payment instruments. By utilizing data/information in the period before the Covid-19 pandemic and during the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the analysis was carried out using a descriptive-elaborative approach. The results show that the decline in economic activity due to the impact of Covid-19 has also had an impact on the decline in public demand for cash. As an alternative and at the same time as part of efforts to break the chain of the spread of Covid and accelerate economic recovery, the government and Bank Indonesia encourage the public to use non-cash payment instruments. The use of non-cash instruments, especially digital banking, also helps accelerate an inclusive and efficient digital economy and financial ecosystem |
| Keywords: | consumption, Covid-19, demand for money, digital banking, electronic money, money supply |
| JEL: | E21 E40 E41 E42 E51 E58 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109926&r= |
| By: | Henning Tarp Jensen; Marcus Keogh-Brown; Finn Tarp |
| Abstract: | Despite major public finance reform efforts over the last decade, Myanmarese public finances continue to be characterized by relative weakness in revenue collection, budget execution, and long-term sustainability. Myanmar is therefore in need of comprehensive public finance reform. Two top priorities of the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan are to establish a fair and efficient tax system to increase government revenues, and to ensure effective public financial management. |
| Keywords: | Myanmar, Tax reform, Economic efficiency, Household income, Income distribution |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-179&r= |
| By: | Henning Tarp Jensen; Marcus Keogh-Brown; Finn Tarp |
| Abstract: | Myanmar is facing climate change (CC) induced changes to the productivity of their critically important rice sector over the coming century. Moreover, the recent five-year Myanmarese Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS) sets out a vision of achieving an '…inclusive, competitive, food and nutrition secure, climate change resilient, and sustainable agricultural system…' by 2030. In this paper, we investigate the productivity pillar of the ADS strategy. |
| Keywords: | Myanmar, Agricultural technology, Climate change, Agricultural productivity, Computable general equilibrium, Rice |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-181&r= |
| By: | Jeffrey Lawrence D’Silva; Hayrol Azril Mohamed Shaffril; Asnarulkhadi Abu Samah |
| Abstract: | Issues related to demand on deeper understanding on climate change adaptation ability, inadequate number of social studies, and the lack of studies on specific groups have prompted this study to assess the adaptation toward climate change among islanders small-scale fishermen (ISFM) in Malaysia. At the same time, it also intends to identify and rank order the aspect of adaptation abilities among ISFM in different areas/zones and to match the recommendation for the periodical remedial measure based on a different aspect of adaptation abilities. A set of questionnaires was developed based on the individual adaptive capacity framework on social adaptation to climate change developed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Based on multi-stage simple random sampling, a total of 500 ISFM in four Malaysian islands, namely: Pangkor, Langkawi, Perhentian, and Redang, were chosen as respondents. Each island was represented by 125 small-scale fishermen. The fishermen surveyed had a high level of adaptation with regard to eight aspects. The highest mean score was recorded by “attachment to place,†followed by “attachment to occupation,†and then by “formal and informal networks.†In contrast, the fishermen showed a moderate level of adaptation with regard to eight aspects, with “business size and approach†having the lowest mean score, followed by “financial status and access to credit,†and “employability.†These results depict a strong sense of belonging and attachment to their residential area and fishing routines, and it demonstrate their strong social relationship with surrounding communities. Furthermore, results show that limited financial ability to survive, limited access to credit, and their inability to diversify their livelihood can obstruct them from responding effectively to the impacts of climate change. The study demonstrated the strengths and weaknesses of the ISFM’s adaptations to climate change. Based on their strengths and weaknesses, recommendations related to skill diversification, early warning systems, environmental conservation, strengthening internal and external social relationships, climate change training and awareness, and access to credit were suggested. These recommendations were formulated to guide them in generating well-planned and systematic adaptation options to deal with the threatening impacts of climate change. |
| Keywords: | small-scale fishermen, Malaysia, climate change adaptation |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sag:seadps:2021:513&r= |
| By: | Jennifer A. Holland; Kenneth Aa. Wiik (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Differences in the timing and pathway into family life provide insights into the social distance between majority and immigrant-background groups. Increasing similarity in these processes across immigrant generations may indicate blurring of group distinctions. We situate our study in Norway, a country on the forefront of family change with an increasingly diverse population. Using administrative register data and discrete-time event history models, we demonstrate differential timings and propensities to form families via marriage or a nonmarital first birth among the majority population and the children of immigrants from ten countries of (parental) origin in Europe, the Middle East, East Africa, South Asia, South-East Asia and Latin America. Results demonstrated a generational shift toward the Nordic late marriage pattern among women and men originating from Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Iraq, Iran and Vietnam and men with origins in Turkey. We find limited evidence of generational shifts in the propensity to form a family via a nonmarital first birth, however, in some context, those who form families via this pathway also follow the majority timing pattern, regardless of background or generation. Findings suggest that jointly investigating the timing of family formation and distinct pathways into family life provides new insights into the gradations in and the context of adaptation and diminishing social distance between groups in diverse societies. |
| Keywords: | Children of immigrants; Second generation; Family formation; Marriage; Parenthood; Norway |
| JEL: | J10 J12 J15 Y8 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:973&r= |
| By: | Pham Tran Lan Phuong; Nguyen Van Thai |
| Abstract: | O Lam Commune in Tri Ton District, An Giang Province in Vietnam experiences serious water shortages all year round, especially in the dry season. Moreover, owing to its mountainous topography, the local people, especially women, face numerous challenges in accessing water for domestic use. Unfortunately, although women are globally considered the main actors in water management, they are often excluded from planning, formulating, and implementing management policies. This study, therefore, examined gender issues in relation to water use and management of Khmer men and women in four villages of O Lam Commune. Interviews, focus group discussions, and Participatory Rural Appraisal tools were conducted in Phuoc Loc, Phuoc Loi, Phuoc Tho, and Phuoc Long villages. The results reveal the relationship between gender roles and the physical environment, particularly upland rice farming systems. Women primarily manage water in the household; consequently, lack of access to water affects them more significantly than men. Furthermore, since they travel longer distances and carry heavy loads of water, they spend more time collecting water. This reduces the time they have to fulfill their reproductive roles and partake in income-generating activities. In addition, women face several barriers that limit their participation in decision-making in water management projects. These barriers include traditional norms that assign and expect men to be the dominant decision makers; high illiteracy levels among women; and women’s lack of time to participate in water-related project activities due to their reproductive and productive roles, such as labor inputs in agriculture. This study recommends that water-related policies and projects should ensure gender equality in increasing access to water resources and building capacity training programs. Women’s participation in water-related activities will enhance their knowledge and provide them with various platforms to share their perspectives on water use and management. |
| Keywords: | Khmer ethnic minority women, women’s participation and decision-making, gender relations to water, reproductive and productive gendered roles, water management, gender equality, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sag:seadps:2021:511&r= |
| By: | Robert Stehrer; Nina Vujanovic |
| Abstract: | The RCEP agreement, signed between ASEAN+3, New Zealand and Australia, forms the largest trade bloc in history, and will likely change the gravity of trade more towards Asia. This will pose large implications for its members that, due to economic and trade diversities, may not incur all economic benefits equally. This policy brief demonstrates that the countries encompassing the current trade bloc are large trade partners of the EU and Austria, and this trade embeddedness has been on the rise. High tech industries are particularly trade dependent on imports from this trade bloc, while significant value added from China is embodied in EU and Austrian service and goods exports. The assessment based on Caliendo-Parro is that due to formation of the bloc, trade with the EU may decline by -1%. Austrian export will suffer slightly more (-1.2%). However, more positive welfare effects might be generated from successful EU FDI inflows to the newly formed trade bloc, when possible. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2022:i:054&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The rapid spread of the virus in Cambodia during 2021 has set the economy back again, after external demand collapsed in 2020. The authorities responded to the crisis with measures to support households and firms, including increased healthcare spending; a new system of cash transfers to vulnerable households; loans and guarantees; tax breaks; and wage subsidies and retraining. Despite these measures, growth is estimated to have contracted by -3.1 percent in 2020. Growth in 2021 is expected to be 2.2 percent, slowly recovering to pre-crisis rates of around 6½ percent. |
| Date: | 2021–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2021/260&r= |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gives Mauritius the golden opportunity to access Africa’s vast market of 1.3 billion people, with an estimated GDP of $3.4 trillion. This opportunity could not have come at a better time, as Mauritius suffered a heavy blow from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It also lost its preferential trade agreements on sugar and textiles in the 2000s, and has struggled with diminished export and productivity growth. To turn this opportunity into a new engine of growth, Mauritius must once again transform itself from an economy that relies on labor-intensive sectors to a new foundation of knowledge-intensive sectors of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR). This is a daunting challenge, especially in the fiscally constrained environment post COVID-19. The successful experiences of the European Union, ASEAN and MERCOSUR (though to a lesser extent) show that their visionary leaders transformed their shattered countries into vibrant economies delivering sustained growth and poverty reduction by relentlessly pursuing and expanding regional market integration. Mauritius can derive useful insights on how to move forward not only from these successful experiences but also from its own ability to turn crisis into opportunity by developing new and diversified markets. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb39-21&r= |