nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2022‒01‒17
eleven papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Travel Demand of Denpasar Greater Area By Dhaniel Ilyas
  2. Penetapan Harga Menurut Yahya Bin Umar dan Relevansinya Terhadap Undang-Undang Penetapan Harga Di Indonesia By Mr, Jamaludin
  3. Schooling Progress, Learning Reversal: Indonesia’s Learning Profiles Between 2000 and 2014 By Amanda Beatty; Emilie Berkhout; Luhur Bima; Menno Pradhan; Daniel Suryadarma
  4. The Republic of South Africa and the African Continental Free Trade Area: Opportunities and Challenges in a Post-COVID-19 Environment By Isabelle Tsakok
  5. Portfolio optimization under mean-CVaR simulation with copulas on the Vietnamese stock exchange By Le, Tuan Anh; Dao, Thi Thanh Binh
  7. Climate and Environmental Financing at Regional Level: Amplifying and Seizing the Opportunities By Nauli A. Desdiani; Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi; Amalia Cesarina; Syahda Sabrina; Meila Husna; Rosalia Marcha Violeta; Adho Adinegoro; Alin Halimatussadiah
  8. Cocoa pollination, biodiversity-friendly production, and the global market By Thomas Cherico Wanger; Francis Dennig; Manuel Toledo-Hern\'andez; Teja Tscharntke; Eric F. Lambin
  9. Labour market projections and time allocation in Myanmar: Application of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model By Henning Tarp Jensen; Marcus Keogh-Brown; Finn Tarp
  10. Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia By Raphael Chiappini; Delphine Lahet
  11. Macro Uncertainties and Tests of Capital Structure Theories across Renewable and Non-Renewable Resource Companies By Deni Irawan; Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

  1. By: Dhaniel Ilyas (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: Using micro commuting data in 2015, I estimate travel demand of Denpasar greater area. Motorcycle and car are still more preferred greatly compare to public transport. Faster travel time are the most important factor that drive the use of motorcycle and car in Denpasar greater area. Younger people seems to use the public transport more, including the Trans Sarbagita BRT. An incentive in pricing for older group of people and improving the bus scheduling might help increase the use of public transport.
    Keywords: Denpasar — Indonesia — travel demand — transportation
    JEL: R22 R41
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Mr, Jamaludin
    Abstract: The most perfect religion is Islam because it regulates all aspects of life, both in terms of worship and muamalat. Halal buying and selling based on the principle of mutual pleasure in accordance with the provisions of the Shari'a in order to achieve a sense of justice has been ordered in Islam. The method used in this research is qualitative by utilizing the legal perspective approach of Islamic Economics. From the results of the study: it was concluded that 1) Yahya bin Umar's thoughts forbade the government to intervene in determining prices. 2) Currently, the Indonesian government's economic policy is not yet ready to determine prices without government intervention, so that the government still needs its intervention in determining prices. 3) the relevance of the price may be intervened by the government in abnormal conditions. From this research, it is very important for the Indonesian government to implement Islamic sharia patterns in intervening in determining prices for the sake of achieving the common good and the welfare of the people.
    Keywords: Yahya bin Umar , Pricing, Consumer
    JEL: A1 B00 D5 H1
    Date: 2021–09–05
  3. By: Amanda Beatty; Emilie Berkhout; Luhur Bima; Menno Pradhan; Daniel Suryadarma
    Abstract: The authors examine the relationship between schooling completed and mathematics learning from 2000 to 2014 by developing learning profiles for Indonesia.
    Keywords: International education, Development, Educational policy, Curriculum, Learning profiles, Indonesia
  4. By: Isabelle Tsakok
    Abstract: South Africa’s economy is in crisis. Like much of the world, it has been battered by the COVID-19 pandemic when its economy has already been weakened by years of low growth, high unemployment and rising inequality after the global financial crisis of 2007-08. At this difficult juncture, the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers it the opportunity of becoming a continental growth pole, not just a regional growth pole which it is already. This opportunity could not have come at a better time. Europe had been battered by the devastations of the Second World War when its visionary leaders decided to establish the EU: to unify in peace for the prosperity of all in Europe. They chose to integrate their markets in a Common Market. Indonesia and Malaysia were involved in an undeclared war when their leaders decided to resolve their conflict peacefully. Together with the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore, they formed the ASEAN to integrate their markets and their peoples.1 The leaders decided to rise above the divisiveness of nationalism to build a better life for their people. Their experiences clearly show that crisis can be turned into opportunity by integrating regional markets. South Africa too can use the opportunity of the AfCFTA as an starting point on a path of higher and more inclusive growth. What actions should South Africa prioritize? The successful and not-so-successful experiences with regional market integration in the EU, ASEAN and MERCOSUR can offer valuable insights.
    Date: 2021–11
  5. By: Le, Tuan Anh; Dao, Thi Thanh Binh
    Abstract: This paper studies how to construct and compare various optimal portfolio frame-works for investors in the context of the Vietnamese stock market. The aim of the study is to help investors to find solutions for constructing an optimal portfolio strategy using modern investment frameworks in the Vietnamese stock market. The study contains a census of the top 43 companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HOSE) over the ten-year period from July 2010 to January 2021. Optimal portfolios are constructed using Mean-Variance Framework, Mean-CVaR Framework under different copula simulations. Two-thirds of the data from 26/03/2014 to 27/1/2021 consists of the data of Vietnamese stocks during the COVID-19 recession, which caused depression globally; however, the results obtained during this period still provide a consistent outcome with the results for other periods. Furthermore, by randomly attempting different stocks in the research sample, the results also perform the same outcome as previous analyses. At about the same CvaR level of about 2.1%, for example, the Gaussian copula portfolio has daily Mean Return of 0.121%, the t copula portfolio has 0.12% Mean Return, while Mean-CvaR with the Raw Return portfolio has a lower Return at 0.103%, and the last portfolio of Mean-Variance with Raw Return has 0.102% Mean Return. Empirical results for all 10 portfolio levels showed that CVaR copula simulations significantly outperform the historical Mean-CVaR framework and Mean-Variance framework in the context of the Vietnamese stock exchange.
    Keywords: Gaussian copula, t copula, simulation, Mean-CVaR, Mean-Variance, portfolio optimization, Vietnam
    JEL: C61 G11 G17
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Gunarso, Gatot Hadi
    Abstract: This study aims to analyze the thoughts of M. Abdul Mannan about the concept of price in Islamic economics. The prices offered by the secular market are not seen as guidelines for the welfare of society, especially in the context of Islamic economics where social care is so great that distribution is the key to productive activities. The competition implied in the market mechanism needs to be complemented by conscious control, supervision and cooperation. Supervision in price control is carried out by the government or a country. The results of the research of M. Abdul Mannan formulate that the concept of price is adjusted by the value of the product on demand and supply so as to realize healthy competition in covering the basic principles of justice in realizing satisfaction/surplus between the seller and the buyer. M. Abdul Mannan's thinking about prices aims to avoid monopoly prices and artificial prices that are based on speculation, smuggling and hoarding. Regulations on prices in Indonesia already exist and are relevant to M. Abdul Mannan's thoughts, but the lack of firm action in its application causes producers to commit violations in determining so that justice does not materialize, especially in determining prices.
    Keywords: Muhammad Abdul Mannan, Islamic Economics, Price Concepts, Price Regulations in Indonesia.
    JEL: A10 H0 N0 N1
    Date: 2021–08–13
  7. By: Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Rosalia Marcha Violeta (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Adho Adinegoro (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Alin Halimatussadiah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: The establishment of national climate policy targets has forced the local government to set ambitious climate goals supporting the national government to achieve its proposed target. Besides low awareness of climate change and environmental risk impacts, the biggest challenge faced by the local governments to exert climate actions lies in the financing of the programs. This paper aims to analyze the current local government budget on climate and environmental activities and identify available potential financing sources to finance local government climate and environmental initiatives. We found that the local budget allocation for environmental spending increased from 1% in 2016 to 3% in 2020, yet it is still relatively low and insufficient for achieving the climate target. With a limited budget, local governments must find additional potential financing sources for financing their climate actions. Through case study analysis, insights from several regions that have gained harness of potential from various climate and environmental financing initiatives to overcome environmental issues in their areas and reach climate and environmental goals were attained. To address local budget shortages problem for climate and environmental activities, several strategies for the local government are proposed: (1) optimizing and improving the quality of spending from intergovernmental fiscal transfer; (2) adopting Climate Budget Tagging (CBT); (3) increasing local-own source revenue from natural resource and environmental based activities; (4) valuing regencies and/or cities with high ecological value with more fiscal support through TAPE and TAKE schemes; (5) optimizing the role of SOEs and private sectors through CSR and PPP; (6) optimizing multilateral financing; and (7) utilizing other financings from the central government such as through environmental fund management agency (BPDLH), disaster pooling fund, ICCTF, and SDGs Indonesia One.
    Keywords: climate change — environmental risk — climate and environmental financing — local budget
    JEL: H72 Q54 R11
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Thomas Cherico Wanger; Francis Dennig; Manuel Toledo-Hern\'andez; Teja Tscharntke; Eric F. Lambin
    Abstract: Production of cocoa, the third largest trade commodity globally has experienced climate related yield stagnation since 2016, forcing farmers to expand production in forested habitats and to shift from nature friendly agroforestry systems to intensive monocultures. The goal for future large-scale cocoa production combines high yields with biodiversity friendly management into a climate adapted smart agroforestry system (SAS). As pollination limitation is a key driver of global production, we use data of more than 150,000 cocoa farms and results of hand pollination experiments to show that manually enhancing cocoa pollination (hereafter manual pollination) can produce SAS. Manual pollination can triple farm yields and double farmers annual profit in the major producer countries Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Indonesia, and can increase global cocoa supplies by up to 13%. We propose a win win scenario to mitigate negative long term price and socioeconomic effects, whereby manual pollination compensates only for yield losses resulting from climate and disease related decreases in production area and conversion of monocultures into agroforestry systems. Our results highlight that yields in biodiversity friendly and climate adapted SAS can be similar to yields currently only achieved in monocultures. Adoption of manual pollination could be achieved through wider implementation of ecocertification standards, carbon markets, and zero deforestation pledges.
    Date: 2021–12
  9. By: Henning Tarp Jensen; Marcus Keogh-Brown; Finn Tarp
    Abstract: Myanmar has, in recent years, strengthened its focus on human capital as a development pillar, and introduced legislation and adopted conventions on child labour. But child exploitation continues, including use of forced labour by the military and children performing hazardous work. Moreover, Myanmar faces a rapidly closing window of opportunity within which to train its workforce to meet the future challenges of declining population growth and an ageing society.
    Keywords: Myanmar, Child labour, School reform, Decent Work, Household income, Income distribution, Education policy
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Raphael Chiappini (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux); Delphine Lahet (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)
    Date: 2020–04–01
  11. By: Deni Irawan (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI); Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Australia; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University, Australia); Tatsuyoshi Okimoto (Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Australia; Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Japan; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University, Australia)
    Abstract: Capital structure is one of the most critical decisions for firms in business. This study examines the role of macro (economic and non-economic) uncertainties in affecting firms’ capital structure management. Three prominent capital structure theories are tested for global resource firms: (1) static trade-off, (2) pecking order, and (3) market timing theory. The results suggest that no single theory prevails, although both pecking order and market timing theories have certain explanatory power to explain sample firms’ financing behaviour. The pecking order theory is strongly supported by the results of the leverage target adjustment model. However, the downward cyclical patterns of pecking order coefficients suggest that the resource firms tend to choose debt financing less and less over time, particularly after 2008. The market timing theory holds strong, as indicated by the significance of macro condition (uncertainties) variables in determining sample firms’ capital structure, especially after 2008 and for non-renewable firms. However, the main proxies of the cost of debt are not statistically significant. In conclusion, this study finds that resource firms have a particular pecking order preference when they need financing, and the influence of macro uncertainties are vital in determining their capital structure.
    Keywords: capital structure — trade-off theory — pecking order theory — market timing theory — macro uncertainties
    JEL: E32 G32
    Date: 2021

This nep-sea issue is ©2022 by Kavita Iyengar. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.