nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2021‒11‒01
twenty-one papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Did you know? The effect of SMS reminders on health screening uptake in Indonesia By Marcus, Maja-Emilia; Reuter, Anna; Rogge, Lisa; Vollmer, Sebastian
  2. Adverse Rainfall Shocks and Child Outcomes: Evidence from Rural Vietnam By Pham, Trinh
  3. Price incentives and unmonitored deforestation: Evidence from Indonesian palm oil mills By Valentin GUYE; Sebastian KRAUS
  4. 아세안 역내 서비스시장 통합의 경제적 영향과 시사점(Asean Economic Integration on Services: An Analysis of Economic Impacts and Implications) By La, Meeryung; Cheong, Jaewan; Shin, Mingeum; Kim, Jegook
  5. 신남방지역 온라인 플랫폼 시장 분석과 시사점(Analysis on the Online Platform Markets and Policies in India and ASEAN) By Kim, Jeong Gon; Na, Seung Kwon; Lee, Jaeho; Yun, ChiHyun; Kim, Eunmi
  6. Changing GVC in Post-Pandemic Asia: Korea, China and Southeast Asia By Keun Lee; Taeyoung Park
  7. 무역구조의 변화가 국내 고용구조에 미친 영향과 정책 시사점 (The Effects of the Increase in Korea's Trade with China and Vietnam on Korean Labor Market and Policy Implications) By Koo, Kyong Hyun; Kim, Hyuk-Hwang
  8. White Knights or Machiavellians? Understanding the motivation for reverse takeovers in Singapore and Thailand By Pantisa Pavabutr
  9. Two City-States in the Long Shadow of China: The Future of Universities in Hong Kong and Singapore by Bryan Penprase and John Aubrey Douglass CSHE 10.21 By Penprase, Bryan E; Douglass, John A
  10. 인도태평양 전략과 신남방정책의 협력 방향 (Exploring Convergence between the New Southern Policy and U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy: From Korea's Perspective) By Choi, Ina; Kwak, Sungil; Cheong, Jaewan; Lee, Jung-Mi; Park, Nayoun; Kim, Mi Lim; Lee, Jaehyon; Cho, Won Deuk
  11. 아시아-태평양 지역의 디지털화와 한국의 협력방안(Digitalization in Asia-Pacific Region and Policy Implications for Korea) By Jang, Yungshin; Kwak, Sungil; Kwak, Soyoung; Park, Eunbin; Moon, Seongman; Nam, Sang-yirl
  12. 동아시아 금융협력의 비전과 과제: CMIM 20년의 평가와 새로운 협력 방향(East Asian Regional Financial Cooperation: Visions and Challenges) By Yoon, Deok Ryong; An, Sungbae; Chai, Hee-Yul; Rhee, Yeongseop; Moon, Woosik
  13. Tax Incentives to Appear Small: Evidence from Thai Firms and Corporate Groups By Chanont Banternghansa; Athiphat Muthitacharoen; Archawa Paweenawat; Krislert Samphantharak
  14. Long Run Risk Model and Equity Premium Puzzle in Thailand By Sartja Duangchaiyoosook; Weerachart Kilenthong
  15. Understanding a Less Developed Labor Market through the Lens of Social Security Data By Nada Wasi; Chinnawat Devahastin Na Ayudhya; Pucktada Treeratpituk; Chommanart Nittayo
  16. Eliciting Individual Discount Rates in Thailand: A Tale of Two Cities By Nuttaporn Rochanahastin; Shinawat Horayangkura
  17. Underground Transfer of Floods for Irrigation (UTFI): exploring potential at the global scale By Alam, Mohammad Faiz; Pavelic, Paul
  18. Analyzing and Forecasting Thai Macroeconomic Data using Mixed-Frequency Approach By Nuttanan Wichitaksorn
  19. Inflation at Risk in Thailand By Maneerat Gongsiang; Pongpitch Amatyakul
  20. Understanding the Dynamic of Digital Economy in the Context of Digital Literacy of Thai Households By Roongkiat Ratanabanchuen
  21. Productivity and GDP: International Evidence of Persistence and Trends Over 130 Years of Data By Luis A. Gil-Alana; Sakiru Adebola Solarin; Rangan Gupta

  1. By: Marcus, Maja-Emilia; Reuter, Anna; Rogge, Lisa; Vollmer, Sebastian
    JEL: I11 I12 D91 D83
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Pham, Trinh
    Keywords: International Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Health Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–08
  3. By: Valentin GUYE (INRAE et Mercator Research Institute for Global Commons and Climate Change Berlin (MCC)); Sebastian KRAUS (MCC)
    Abstract: We create a novel, spatially explicit microeconomic panel of Indonesian palm oil mills, to provide the first estimates of deforestation price elasticities based on observations of the actual prices paid at mill gates. To identify the price elasticity, we spatially model how deforestation in upstream plantations is exposed to downstream, conditionally exogenous, shocks on mill-gate prices. We provide the first evidence that deforestation for smallholder plantations, and illegal deforestation, are price elastic. This implies that a price instrument can disincentivize deforestation where it is most difficult to monitor, and contain leakages from conservation regulations.
    Keywords: Deforestation, price elasticity, oil palm, Indonesia,
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2021–07
    Abstract: 아세안은 2018년 아세안서비스기본협정(AFAS: ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services)의 10차 패키지 협상을 마무리하고, 2020년 아세안서비스무역협정(ATISA: ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement)에 서명하는 등 역내 서비스자유화를 위한 노력을 지속하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 아세안의 서비스시장 통합 현황을 파악하고, 그 경제적 효과를 분석하고자 하였다. ASEAN has been pursuing economic integration on services since 1995, reducing trade restrictions on services to ASEAN member states through the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) packages commitments. ASEAN signed the ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement (ATISA) on October 2020, which includes built-in agenda to convert members’ commitments to a negative approach, replacing the AFAS 10th package. Upon this backdrop, this report aims to analyze the current status of economic integration on services among ASEAN members and the impact of such commitments on ASEAN and non-ASEAN countries. The targets of AFAS packages are summarized as follows: (i) eliminating Mode 1 and 2 restrictions, (ii) substantially eliminating market access limitations regarding Mode 3, and (iii) raising minimum ASEAN equity participation to 70%. Upon reviewing the commitments concluded in the AFAS 10th package, Myanmar, the Philippines and Viet Nam were yet to reach the thresholds, and the overall degree of openness among ASEAN member states regarding Mode 3 restrictions remained relatively low. Meanwhile, ASEAN has restricted liberalization on the movement of natural persons (Mode 4), and signed the ASEAN Agreement on Movement of Natural Persons (AAMNP) in 2012 for facilitating the movement of high-skilled labor only. According to the theoretical model used in this report, ASEAN’s approach to Mode 4 liberalization could be appropriate. This is because, if the endowment gaps among countries are large enough, factor mobility could lead to agglomeration of productions in a single large country. However, if there is a complementary relationship between the modes, ASEAN’s efforts to lower trade barriers in the services sector are not expected to be effective as long as they pursue such asymmetric liberalization among modes of supply. Therefore, it would be proper to adopt different liberalization strategies regarding Mode 4 barriers depending on whether each service sector has inter-modal substitution or complementarity. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: ASEAN; AFAS; ASEAN Framework Agreement; service; economy; economic integration
    Date: 2020–12–30
    Abstract: 최근 신남방지역 온라인 플랫폼 시장의 성장세가 뚜렷하다. 신남방지역 국가들이 적극적으로 디지털 경제정책을 추진하는 가운데, 코로나19를 계기로 비대면 경제·사회 활동에 대한 수요가 더욱 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 신남방지역 온라인 플랫폼 시장의 발전수준과 성장영역, 신남방지역 주요국의 관련 제도와 정책, 그리고 미국, 중국, 호주 등 주요국의 대(對)신남방지역 정책과 전략을 연구하여 우리 기업의 진출 및 관련 정책 수립에 대한 시사점을 제시하였다. Recently, there has been prominent growth in the digital platform market in Southeast Asian countries and India. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, demands for economic and social activities centered on digital platforms are expected to rise further. This report presents implications for cooperation between Korea and Southeast Asian countries and India by studying the development level and growing areas of the digital platform market in these countries, related laws and regulations, policies, and lastly, strategies of countries such as the United States, China and Australia toward Southeast Asian countries and India. While the Southeast Asian platform market is led by growth in e-commerce, ride-sharing and delivery services, the content platform market represented by over-the-top (OTT) media services is also growing rapidly with Covid-19, and there is a high perspective of growth in digital education and healthcare as well. India is accelerating its digital transformation across various areas due to the establishment of its Aadhaar-based digital financial ecosystem, increased demands on untact activities, and improved income levels. Amid the rapid growth of the online platform market, policies and institutional environments related to digital platforms in Southeast Asia and India are also rapidly changing. Southeast Asian countries are in the process of establishing an institutional basis for digital platforms: regulations on foreign investment, private information protection, e-commerce, etc. India is also in the process of overhauling its digital platform- related institutions and regulations. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: New Southern Policy; digital platform; Southeast Asia; India; Covid-19; pandemic; US; China; Australia; OTT; untact; regulation
    Date: 2020–12–30
  6. By: Keun Lee; Taeyoung Park
    Abstract: This paper has provided some overview of the changing GVC in Asia, especially since the outbreak of Covid-19, focusing on the phenomena of reshoring and nearshoring. It first discussed the role of the three factors responsible for changing and shaping GVC in Asia, and they are digitalization with Industry 4.0 since the 2010s, the US-China trade conflict since 2018, and the Covid-19 since 2020. Thus, an emerging trend is that FDI firms in China and Asia are either reshoring their factories back to their home bases or relocating to nearby locations, such as Vietnam and other Southeast Asian economies. These changes are also associated with MNCs¡¯ move to increase the resiliency of their value chains and by the national government to promote domestic jobs by offering incentives to reshoring. Investigating the cases of reshoring involving Korean firms getting out of China or SEA, the paper identifies three types, 1) reshoring of production of labour-intensive products requiring monetary or tax incentives, 2) reshoring getting possible by flattening of GVC by innovation, such as skipping a stage where semi-finished products are processed in foreign countries, and 3) large scale automation or transformation into Smart Factory, which requires considerable investment and innovation capabilities. These cases and typology suggest that effective reshoring requires not just monetary incentives but also technical assistance to realize the potentials for innovation and automation. In the meantime, some FDI firms are moving out of China and relocating into nearby SEA countries mainly for labour-saving reasons and avoiding tariffs imposed by the US on made-in-China products. Such exit from China might mean a new opportunity for SEA, as exemplified by Vietnam receiving many FDI firms out of China. It could be a new opportunity for SEA to overcome the challenges posed by 4IR and keep existing FDI (onshoring) and/or attract new factories getting out of China (nearshoring).
    Keywords: Reshoring; Near-shoring; China; Korea; Southeast Asia; Digital Factory;
    Date: 2021–10
    Abstract: 본 연구는 2000년대 이후 중국과 베트남의 부상으로 인한 우리나라 무역구조의 변화가 국내 고용구조의 변화에 미친 영향을 산업 및 직종 수준에서 분석하고, 이러한 고용구조의 변화가 근로자들의 소득과 고용안정성에 미친 영향을 살펴봄으로써 포용적 무역을 위한 통상보완정책 및 노동정책에 대한 시사점을 도출하였다. Korea’s trade with China and Vietnam has increased remarkably for the last decades and this trend is one of the most notable changes in the Korean trade structure since the 2000s. This study analyzes the impact of changes in the Korean trade structure caused by the rise of China and Vietnam on the changes in the domestic employment structure at the industry and occupation level, and examines how the changes affected workers’ earnings and employment security over a longer period. This study finds that the increase in imports from/exports to China and Vietnam from 2003 through 2018 has caused significant changes in Korea’s manufacturing employment by industry and occupation. Specifically, the employment declined in industries that are more exposed to import competition from China and Vietnam (e.g., textiles, clothing, shoes, computers and video equipment, etc.), while the employment increased in industries with large export growth to China and Vietnam(e.g., machinery and equipment, precision equipment, semiconductors, ferroalloys, etc.). The fact that not only imports from but also exports to China and Vietnam rose sharply in Korea partly explains why Korean manufacturing employment rebounded from the mid-2000s, unlike other advanced countries. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Korea; China; Vietnam; labor market; policy implications; structure; employment; industry
    Date: 2020–12–30
  8. By: Pantisa Pavabutr
    Abstract: This paper analyzes 47 reverse takeovers (RTOs), in which privately held firms acquire public firms to obtain listing status in Singapore and Thailand between 2007–2015. Unlike U.S. RTOs in prior studies, these transactions cannot be regarded as short-cuts to bypass listing rules since merged firms must meet the same minimum listing requirement as firms listing with IPOs. Rather, private firms treat RTOs as an opportunity to become public firms without immediate dilution by acquiring smaller firms at bargain prices. By examining shareholder circulars and analysis of transaction characteristics, we find that co-parties tend to cite growth from business diversification as their motivation for RTOs. Distressed public firms more frequently emphasize the motivation to reorganize and revive by merging with stronger private firms. Analysis of return and financial accounting performance shows that the merged firms experience improved growth and generate positive wealth impact; thus, offering opportunity for incumbent shareholders of public firms to recover some of their investment value.
    Keywords: Reverse Takeovers; Back-door Listings; Emerging Markets; Bootstrappin
    JEL: G14 G34
    Date: 2021–06
  9. By: Penprase, Bryan E; Douglass, John A
    Keywords: Education
    Date: 2021–09–22
    Abstract: 아세안과 인도를 둘러싼 강대국간 경쟁이 심화되면서 한국의 신남방정책과 미국의 인도태평양 전략 간 협력에 대한 대내외적 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 인도태평양 전략에 대한 아세안과 인도의 입장과 대응을 분석하여 신남방정책과 인도태평양 전략 협력 추진 시 고려해야 할 전략적 함의를 제시하였다. 또한 신남방국가들의 협력 수요 분석을 기반으로 한·미 협력이 유망한 협력 분야와 주요 정책 과제들을 제시하였다. Given its geostrategic position and growing importance in the world economy, the Indo-Pacific region has attracted many major powers to actively engage with the region. With the unveiling of the New Southern Policy (NSP) in 2017, Korea has also sought to upgrade its relations with ASEAN and India by boosting economic ties, socio-cultural exchanges and cooperation in the area of peace and security. While an earlier version of the NSP focused on bilateral cooperation with targeted countries, it gradually began to explore opportunities to collaborate with other players in addressing the needs of ASEAN and India. In particular, as the United States seeks cooperation with its key allies in forging the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP), there has been growing interest in the search for convergence between the FOIP and the NSP. Initially, the Korean government took an ambiguous stance toward the U.S.’s new policy, but in 2019 the two governments agreed to work together by building synergies between the NSP and the FOIP. Nevertheless, given the strategic nature of the FOIP as a counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the attendant concerns in Southeast Asia about being embroiled in U.S.-China rivalry, close collaboration with the FOIP poses some challenges for the NSP, whose primary objective is to win the heart of targeted countries and steer toward stronger cooperation with them. Against this backdrop, this report presents suggestions on how the NSP could cooperate with the FOIP in ways that suit the interests of ASEAN and India. The policy recommendation is based on analyzing how the FOIP is received by NSP-targeted countries and the cooperation needs of this region. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: New Southern Policy; USA; Indo-Pacific; ASEAN; Korea; China geostrategic position; Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy; Belt and Road Initiative
    Date: 2020–12–30
    Abstract: 본 연구에서는 아시아-태평양 지역의 디지털 격차가 경제성과에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 우선 역내 디지털화의 진전 정도를 살펴보고, 역내 주요국의 디지털 전환 정책을 텍스트 마이닝 기법을 활용하여 비교·분석한다. 또한 디지털 기술에 대한 접근성과 활용강도의 차이가 국가별 총계 수준의 경제성과에 미치는 영향과 개인별 인적자본 축적의 메커니즘을 통한 노동시장 성과에 미치는 영향을 실증분석한다. 분석결과를 통해 APEC과 소속 회원국들이 디지털 포용 정책에 역량을 집중하여야 할 근거를 제시하고, 역내 디지털 포용 국제공조 플랫폼으로서의 APEC 기능 강화 방향과 역내 디지털 협력 강화를 위한 한국의 협력방안을 제안한다. This study examines the progress of digitalization in the Asia- Pacific region, compares and analyzes the digital transformation policies of major economies in the region using text mining techniques, and demonstrates the effect of the digital gap on economic performance by dividing the regional economic development stage by individual country. Also, an empirical analysis was performed on how the difference in access to digital technology and intensity of use has an impact not only on the overall economic performance of a country but also labor market performance through the mechanism of individual human capital accumulation. The analysis results suggest APEC and its member economies focus their capabilities on digital inclusion policies. And the results propose a direction for strengthening APEC’s function as an international cooperation platform for digital inclusion in the region, and a cooperation plan for strengthening digital cooperation in Korea. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Asia-Pacific; Korea; digitalization; policy; implication; text mining; economic performance; labor market; cooperation
    Date: 2020–12–30
  12. By: Yoon, Deok Ryong (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); An, Sungbae (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Chai, Hee-Yul (; Rhee, Yeongseop (Seoul National University - Graduate School of International Studies); Moon, Woosik (Seoul National University - Graduate School of International Studies)
    Abstract: 본 연구는 2000년 치앙마이 이니셔티브 체결 이후 동아시아 역내 금융협력 20년의 성과를 살펴보고, 그 과정에서 나타난 문제의 해결방안을 모색하고자 한다. 아울러 중앙은행 디지털화폐를 통한 통화협력, 동북아 개발협력을 위한 동북아개발공사 설립, 중앙아시아와의 금융협력 추진 등 금융협력 추진방안을 새롭게 제시해본다. After the East Asian financial crisis in 1998, the need to strengthen financial cooperation, including liquidity support at the regional level, emerged. Accordingly, the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) was signed at the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers’ Meeting in 2000, and institutional efforts to strengthen regional financial cooperation have been continued for 20 years. The outcomes of this effort include the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) and the Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI). However, it is difficult to find countries actively utilizing them. For example, even though the blockade caused by the spread of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a decline in economic activity and suffered instability in the foreign exchange market, none of the ASEAN+3 countries attempted to resolve market instability by using regional financial cooperation mechanisms. Under this circumstance, we try to find the reason for the poor use of CMIM. First of all, CMIM is linked to the International Monetary Fund, so it cannot be free from the sigma effect. The size of support is also small, as well as using the holding amount. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: East Asian; CMIM; financial cooperation; ABMI; ASEAN; COVID-19; CBDC; RCEP; AIIB
    Date: 2020–12–30
  13. By: Chanont Banternghansa; Athiphat Muthitacharoen; Archawa Paweenawat; Krislert Samphantharak
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of SME tax incentives on firm behaviors. We use firm-level panel data of all registered firms in Thailand to analyze the effects of a large reduction in corporate income tax rates for SMEs in 2011. First, we find that firms responded strongly to the SME tax incentive as indicated by a sharp bunching of firms just below the threshold after the incentive was introduced. The responses were concentrated among firms with positive EBIT, implying a financial motive for firms to remain small. Second, the bunching was prominent for stand-alone firms, where we observe slower revenue growth for those below the threshold. Third, we do not observe bunching for corporate-group firms, but we find evidence of tax-motivated profit shifting among them instead, especially among firms in small groups with weak corporate governance. Our analysis suggests that transfer pricing was likely a primary channel. Finally, despite the unintended consequences, we find that the incentive significantly raised the probability of firm's survival and encouraged new firm registration, as the policy intended.
    Keywords: Bunching; Tax Incentives; Business Group; Corporate Tax; Size-dependent Policy; Tax Evasion
    JEL: F23 H25 H26 K34 M42
    Date: 2021–02
  14. By: Sartja Duangchaiyoosook; Weerachart Kilenthong
    Abstract: This paper shows that the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) can potentially solve the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles in Thailand. In particular, the calibrated values of the risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are empirically plausible. Risk decomposition results indicate that long-run risk is the most important risk component relevant to asset prices; that is, asset prices in Thai financial markets are most sensitive to small changes in news regarding long-term expected growth rates. Volatility risk also has an impact on asset prices but its impact is just about a quarter of the impact of the long-run risk.
    Keywords: Equity Premium Puzzle; Long-run Risk Model; Long-run Component Risk; Asset Pricing; Generalized Method of Moments
    JEL: G12
    Date: 2021–04
  15. By: Nada Wasi; Chinnawat Devahastin Na Ayudhya; Pucktada Treeratpituk; Chommanart Nittayo
    Abstract: While understanding labor market dynamics is crucial for designing the country’s social protection programs, prohibitive longitudinal surveys are rarely available in less developed countries. We illustrate that employment history from Social Security records can provide several important insights by using data from a middle-income country, Thailand. First, in contrary to the traditional view, we find that the formal and informal sectors are quite connected. Our analysis of millions of individual histories by a machine learning technique shows that more than half of registered workers left the formal sector either seasonally or permanently long before their retirement age. This finding raises a question of whether the social protection schemes being separately designed for formal and informal workers are effective. Second, the semi-formal workers also had a much flatter wage-age profile compared to those always staying in the formal sector. This observation calls for effective redistributive tools to prevent earnings inequality to translate into disparities in old-age and transmit to the next generation. Lastly, on the employer size, we find that almost half of formally registered firms had fewer than five employees, the benchmark often used to define informal firms. This result suggests that the distributions of firm sizes differ across countries and the employer size alone is unlikely sufficient to define informal workers.
    Keywords: Employment; Work History; Social Security; K-means Clustering; Thailand
    JEL: J01 J08 J21 J60
    Date: 2021–01
  16. By: Nuttaporn Rochanahastin; Shinawat Horayangkura
    Abstract: This paper aims to elicit individual discount rates in Thailand using real monetary incentives in the lab-in-the-field setting. We investigate the differences in the discount rates between two different districts with different socioeconomic characteristics. One represents rural agricultural society while another represents an urban industrialised society. We also compare the results between different elicitation methods. The paper provides two main insights. First, the elicited discount rates are significantly different between the two districts. Second, the discount rates also vary across time-horizon suggesting different risk consideration with respect to the time horizon. We also address an intertemporal experimental design issue that results should be indifferent between elicitation methods and find procedural invariant between the choice and matching tasks.
    Keywords: Discount rate; Intertemporal decision making; Time preference; Lab-in-the-field Experiment
    JEL: C93 D15
    Date: 2020–12
  17. By: Alam, Mohammad Faiz (International Water Management Institute); Pavelic, Paul (International Water Management Institute)
    Abstract: This report presents a spatial analysis conducted at global scale to identify areas of high suitability for implementing the Underground Transfer of Floods for Irrigation (UTFI) approach. The study used multiple global spatial datasets, and the related data were arranged under three categories – water supply, water demand and water storage – to assess global UTFI suitability. Among the river basins with high suitability, the Awash in Ethiopia, Ramganga in India (one of the major tributaries of the Ganges River Basin) and Chao Phraya in Thailand were selected for the economic analysis in this study. The results from this study are intended to provide a first step towards identifying the broad areas (at the river basin or country scale) where more detailed investigation would be worthwhile to ascertain the technical and economic feasibility of UTFI, with greater confidence.
    Keywords: flood irrigation/river basins/groundwater recharge/aquifers/water storage/water supply/water demand/drought/economic analysis/cost benefit analysis/benefit-cost ratio/flood control/disaster risk reduction/mitigation/ecosystem services/watershed management/water resources/water management/surface water/water availability/climate change/water security/food security/policies/stakeholders/groundwater irrigation/infrastructure/wells/pumps/crop production/land use/rain/monsoon climate/socioeconomic environment/urban areas/rural areas/models
    Date: 2020
  18. By: Nuttanan Wichitaksorn
    Abstract: Macroeconomic data are an important piece of information in decision making for both the public and private sectors in Thailand. However, the release of key macroeconomic data, usually in a lower frequency such as quarterly, is not always in a timely manner. Using the higher frequency data such as monthly and daily to analyze or forecast the lower frequency data can mitigate the release timing effect. This study applies the mixed-frequency data approach to analyze and forecast Thai key macroeconomic data. The mixed data sampling regressions with various specifications are employed and implemented through some macroeconomic data such as gross domestic product and inflation. The results show that in most cases the mixed-frequency models outperform the autoregressive integrated moving average model, which we used as the benchmark model, even during the COVID-19 period. Some policy implications can also be drawn from the analysis.
    Keywords: Thai Macroeconomic Data; Mixed-frequency; Forecasting; Vector Autoregression; COVID-19
    JEL: C22 C32 C53 E17 E27
    Date: 2020–12
  19. By: Maneerat Gongsiang; Pongpitch Amatyakul
    Abstract: Using monthly Thai data from 2003–2020, we examine the determinants of the future distribution of inflation. We evaluate how different risk factors predict 1-year- ahead future distributions of CPI inflation and its components. Risk factors come from 5 different groups of variables: inflation expectations, domestic economic activity, global economic activity, financial conditions, and component-specific factors. We obtain points on the future distributions of inflation through quantile regressions and fitting those points with skewed-t distributions. Our focus is on the outlook in the tails of the distribution, which recent literature referred to as `inflation-at-risk.' We find, as expected, that the whole inflation distribution has shifted lower, and thus the probability of negative inflation has increased markedly in recent years. There is a structural break around 2015 that affects both the distributions of inflation and their determinants. This structural break makes it challenging to make out-of-sample forecasts, thus, we focus on in-sample evaluation and explanations. For risk factors, we observe that the tightening of financial conditions and the decreasing world production are prominent sources of downside risks to inflation. Inflation expectations also play a smaller role in the lower quantiles, signaling its lower effectiveness in anchoring actual inflation during disinflationary periods. Finally, high global and domestic economic activity can be effective in decreasing downside risks in the lower tail, providing policy makers a way to counter these risks by stimulating the economy.
    Keywords: Inflation Determinants; Central Bank Policies
    JEL: E31 E52
    Date: 2021–04
  20. By: Roongkiat Ratanabanchuen
    Abstract: Digital economy has led to new business opportunities and growth potential especially for developing countries such as Thailand. However, one crucial factor that could create challenges is the readiness of households in adapting to the digital environment. This research proposes that digital literacy of households is the key indicator that helps policy makers to understand the digital divide situation. Digital literacy should be measured by 4 sub-dimensions, namely, 1) the access to digital technologies 2) the level of digital skills 3) the level of digital knowledge and 4) the digital information awareness. After using the principal component analysis (PCA) to develop the scoring system of digital literacy and using the cluster analysis to classify the sample into 3 levels of digital literacy, it is found that households in the illiterate group are mostly unemployed or work in the labor-intensive sector. When looking at how they use financial services, they appear to significantly use fewer banking services and have lower preference on the personalization of services than the digital fluency group. This evidence suggests that populations in the digital illiterate group may have already suffered from the digital divide which could intensify the problem of wealth inequality in the digital era. Consequently, policies that guarantee all households to have certain levels of digital literacy are needed.
    Keywords: Digital Literacy; Financial Services Industry; Digital Economy
    JEL: D1 I2 O3
    Date: 2021–02
  21. By: Luis A. Gil-Alana (University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain); Sakiru Adebola Solarin (University of Notthingham Malaysia, Malaysia); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)
    Abstract: The degree of persistence of the real gross domestic product per capita, total factor productivity and labour productivity has been examined in a group of 23 developed and developing nations, as well as the overall Euro Area, by evaluating the order of integration of the macroeconomic series over the annual period from 1890 to 2019. As against the conventional use of using integer degrees of differentiation (i.e., 0 for stationarity and 1 in case of unit roots), fractional values have been utilized. The empirical findings suggest evidence for mean reversion in both total factor productivity and the real gross domestic product per capita in Chile, Germany, Netherlands and New Zealand. The results further suggest that mean reversion only occur in labour productivity of Australia. The non-linearity analysis shows that non-linearity in the three series occur only in the U.S and occurs in two of the three series in Chile, Spain and Mexico. The policy implications of the results are enumerated in the body of the paper.
    Keywords: Productivity, GDP, persistence, long memory, fractional integration
    JEL: C22
    Date: 2021–10

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