|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Grabrucker, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Migration is a phenomenon of increasing global relevance as year by year a growing number of individuals is leaving their home driven by the pursuit to improve the well-being of their households through additional income. While the drivers of international migration and its effect on the left-behind households have been well researched, less focus has been put on the effects of internal, rural-urban migration (and its concomitant remittances). This paper analyses the net effects of remittances from internal, rural-urban migrants on selfemployment and on investments of the left-behind households by using a rich household level panel data set from Thailand and Vietnam. The findings indicate that individuals from households receiving remittances from internal, rural-urban migrants are less likely to be self-employed - both in Thailand and Vietnam. The channels through which remittances affect the labor supply of the receiving households cannot be determined with certainty, yet one of the potential reasons might be that left-behind household members need to compensate for the lost labor of the migrant who was previously engaged in farm activities. Moreover, the results show for some specifications lower investments of migrant households into farm and non-farm assets, while the expenditure on consumption is higher compared to households without migrants. This might be an indication that non-farm activities are less important for rural left-behind households, while remittances might be directly used to increase the consumption level - which might have been low before the migration. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration,Remittances,Rural non-farm enterprises,Thailand,Vietnam |
| JEL: | D22 F24 O15 Q12 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:upadvr:v8521&r= |
| By: | Calì, Massimiliano; Presidente, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence suggests that automation technologies entail a trade-off between productivity gains and employment losses for the economies that adopt them. This paper casts doubts on this trade-off in the context of a developing country. It shows significant productivity and employment gains from automation in Indonesian manufacturing during the years 2008-2015, a period of rapid increase in robot imports. Analysis based on manufacturing plant data provides evidence of two plausible reasons for the absence of this trade-off. First, it documents the presence of diminishing productivity returns to robot adoption. As a result, the benefits from automation could be particularly large for countries at early stages of adoption, such as Indonesia. Second, the analysis finds significant positive employment spillovers from automation in downstream plants. Such effects are likely larger in countries such as Indonesia, where the foreign content of manufacturing production is low. Suggestive evidence indicates such results could apply to developing countries more generally. |
| Keywords: | Robots,Automation,Development,Employment,Productivity,Spillovers |
| JEL: | O14 J23 J24 L11 F63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:242497&r= |
| By: | Calì, Massimiliano; Presidente, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence suggests that automation technologies entail a trade-off between productivity gains and employment losses for the economies that adopt them. This paper casts doubts on this trade-off in the context of a developing country. It shows significant productivity and employment gains from automation in Indonesian manufacturing during the years 2008-2015, a period of rapid increase in robot imports. Analysis based on manufacturing plant data provides evidence of two plausible reasons for the absence of this trade-off. First, it documents the presence of diminishing productivity returns to robot adoption. As a result, the benefits from automation could be particularly large for countries at early stages of adoption, such as Indonesia. Second, the analysis finds significant positive employment spillovers from automation in downstream plants. Such effects are likely larger in countries such as Indonesia, where the foreign content of manufacturing production is low. Suggestive evidence indicates such results could apply to developing countries more generally. |
| Keywords: | Robots,Automation,Development,Employment,Productivity,Spillovers |
| JEL: | O14 J23 J24 L11 F63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:942&r= |
| By: | Ahmet Aysan (HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University); Ibrahim Musa Unal (HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University) |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts a bibliometric research in the literature on Fintech and Islamic finance. The data of this study consists of relevant articles obtained from the Scopus database as of February 2021. A keywords bundle related to Islamic finance and keyword has been used for the search, resulting in 89 publishments included in this research. Results show the stunning increase in the Islamic Fintech publishments after 2017, mainly in the fields of cryptocurrencies, micro-finance, impact investing, and SRI investing, and so on. The two main centers of Islamic Fintech research are Malaysia-Indonesia Region and the GCC area. The increasing number of Islamic Fintech publishments show the potential of the field for the industry's future. |
| Keywords: | blockchain,cryptocurrency,bibliometric,Islamic,Fintech |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03351153&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Phong Thanh; Phu Pham, Cuong; Thanh Phan, Phuong; Bich Vu, Ngoc; Tien Ha Duong, My; Le Hoang Thuy To Nguyen, Quyen |
| Abstract: | Risks and uncertainty are unavoidable problems in management of projects. Therefore, project managers should not only prevent risks, but also have to respond and manage them. Risk management has become a critical interest subject in the construction industry for both practitioners and researchers. This paper presents critical risk factors of office building projects in the construction phase in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey based on the likelihood and consequence level of risk factors. These factors fell into five groups: (i) financial risk factors; (ii) management risk factors; (iii) schedule risk factors; (iv) construction risk factors; and (v) environment risk factors. The research results showed that critical factors affecting office building projects are natural (i.e., prolonged rain, storms, climate effects) and human-made issues (i.e., soil instability, safety behaviors, owner’s design change) and the schedule-related risk factors contributed to the most significant risks for office buildings projects in the construction phase in Ho Chi Minh City. They give construction management and project management practitioners a new perspective on risks and risk management of office buildings projects in Ho Chi Minh City and are proactive in the awareness, response, and management of risk factors comprehensively. |
| Keywords: | Construction Management, Office Buildings Projects, Risk Management, Project Management |
| JEL: | G32 L74 O18 |
| Date: | 2020–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109901&r= |
| By: | PEMBANGUNAN, GOVERNANCE: JURNAL POLITIK LOKAL DAN |
| Abstract: | Urban Village has the main task of carrying out government, development and community affairs (article 4 paragraph 1 of the Republic of Indonesia Government Regulation No. 73 of 2005 concerning Urban Village). The community's demands for good public services cannot be separated from the existence of the urban village which is very close to the local residents. The complaints that arise from local residents indicate that the service is still not satisfactory in terms of speed of completion of work in administrative matters, this is related to the ability and motivation of Human Resources (employees). Extension activities provide education in the form of lectures and discussions as well as evaluation of knowledge before and after counseling. The results of the extension activities showed that there was an increase in additional knowledge of 25.11% after the extension was carried out. It is hoped that this counseling activity can be sustainable in an effort to improve work skills and motivation to improve employee performance in providing services to the community in accordance with the duties and functions of the urban village. |
| Date: | 2021–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k5yv7&r= |
| By: | Ogbonna, Ahamuefula; Olubusoye, Olusanya E |
| Abstract: | Hinging on the recently established relevance of tail thickness information, we examine the predictability of fifteen major stocks in the Asia-Pacific region using conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model estimates of tail risks. We used a Westerlund and Narayan–type distributed lag model to examine the nexus between returns and tail risk under controlled global and US stocks spillover effects. Country-specific tail risks induce a near-term rise (completely disappears) in returns on “bad” (“good”) days. Our results are robust. |
| Keywords: | Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk; Predictability; Returns; Tail Thickness |
| JEL: | C10 C53 G17 |
| Date: | 2021–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109922&r= |
| By: | Susniwati, Susniwati |
| Abstract: | The openness of public information is an essential or inseparable part of democracy. The principles of democracy are participation, inclusion, representation, transparency, accountability, responsibility, free and fair competition, and solidarity. Transparency and participation are linked to the openness of information that allows people to get accurate and suffi cient information. This research focuses on the dynamics of democracy in transparency and participation through the openness of public information in Pemalang Regency. The method that used in this research is the qualitative method, since the data is obtained from observation, interviews, and documentation. The result shows that information is restricted by the classifi cation of public information, mechanism access, limitation of tools to deliver the information. Moreover, the database of information has not met the requirement for more up-to-date information. Also, the level of participation of the people in public information in Pemalang Regency is still low. |
| Date: | 2021–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:syfxc&r= |
| By: | Archawa Paweenawat (Bank of Thailand); Narapong Srivisal (Chulalongkorn University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies impacts of One-Million-Baht Village Fund program on entrepreneurial activities of households in northern Thailand. In addition to being one of the largest-scaled microfinance programs to date, the implementation of the Village Fund program provides us with an exogenous variation in the availability of microcredit per household that can be used to form an instrumental variable. We apply our unique dataset, containing the instrument and a precise measure of the extent to which household businesses are financially constrained, to estimate Probit models that are subject to the problem of endogenous borrowing decisions. We find evidence for the positive impacts of the Village Fund program on relieving financial constraints faced by household businesses, but the impacts on business startup rates are not significant. Our findings offer policy implications on improving effectiveness of microfinance programs in promoting household businesses. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Financial Constraints, Microfinance, Village Funds |
| JEL: | G21 G51 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:163&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Minh-Hoang |
| Abstract: | Implementing new economic plans, fiscal and monetary policies to help the economy recover in the new “normal stage” is important, but limiting the rise of inflation must not be neglected. |
| Date: | 2021–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9djqh&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Phong Thanh |
| Abstract: | Machine Learning is a subset and technology developed in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). One of the most widely used machine learning algorithms is the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) approach because it is a supervised learning algorithm. This paper applied the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm to predict the construction price index based on Vietnam's socio-economic variables. The data to build the prediction model was from the period 2016 to 2019 based on seven socio-economic variables that impact the construction price index (i.e., industrial production, construction investment capital, Vietnam’s stock price index, consumer price index, foreign exchange rate, total exports, and imports). The research results showed that the construction price index prediction model based on the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) regression method has fewer errors than the traditional method. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), machine learning, price index, construction management |
| JEL: | C53 C8 E0 L16 L74 |
| Date: | 2020–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109899&r= |
| By: | Pongpitch Amatyakul (Bank of Thailand); Tosapol Apaitan (Bank of Thailand); Savaphol Hiruntiaranakul (Bank of Thailand); Nuwat Nookhwun (Bank of Thailand) |
| Abstract: | The constraints facing conventional monetary policy during the recent COVID-19 pandemic accelerate the central banks' use of integrated policy, using multiple tools to fulfill their macroeconomic objectives. This paper, therefore, aims to improve Thailand's monetary policy model for conducting policy analyses involving multiple tools. We embed macro-financial linkages into our model, which facilitate the identification of various policy tools at the central bank's disposal. The model also features multiple sources of nonlinearity, including an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint, to better capture economic dynamics during crises. We allow for a joint calibration of several tools, including conventional interest rate policy, foreign exchange (FX) intervention, macroprudential regulations and financial measures. Last, given a greater emphasis on financial stability, we attempt to measure macro-financial tail risks, which permit an analysis of policy trade-offs in addressing risks to financial stability. We show three applications of our model to shed light on potential gains from policy complementarity during the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic: first, assessing the role of financial measures and FX intervention in supporting economic recovery; second, evaluating the interactions of monetary and macroprudential policies in maintaining financial stability; third, showing roles of fiscal policy as the ELB constraint binds. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Integrated Policy Framework, Semi-structural Model, Financial Stability |
| JEL: | C32 E37 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:164&r= |
| By: | Giulia Aliprandi (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mona Baraké (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Paul-Emmanuel Chouc (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | This study documents the activity of European banks in tax havens and how this activity has evolved since 2014. The analysis covers 36 systemic European banks that have been required to publicly report country-by-country data on their activities since 2015. We study the level and evolution of the profits booked by these banks in tax havens over the 2014-2020 period. We also compute their effective tax rates and their tax deficit—defined as the difference between what these banks currently pay in taxes and what they would pay if they were subject to a minimum effective tax rate in each country. We start by creating a list of tax haven jurisdictions used by the banking sector. We combine two indicators to identify tax havens: the effective tax rate on bank profit and the amount of bank profit per employee. Overall, 17 jurisdictions feature in our list: Bahamas, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Hong Kong, Ireland, Isle of Man, Jersey, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Macao, Malta, Mauritius, Panama, and Qatar. Using this list, we show that European banks use tax havens significantly, with no trend during the 2014–2020 period. The main European banks book EUR 20 billion (or 14% of their total profits) in tax havens each year. This percentage has been stable since 2014 despite the introduction of mandatory information disclosure. Bank profitability in tax havens is abnormally high: EUR 238 000 per employee, as opposed to around EUR 65 000 in non-haven countries. This suggests that the profits booked in tax havens are primarily shifted out of other countries where service production occurs. Around 25% of the profits made by the European banks in our sample are booked in countries with an effective tax rate lower than 15%. The use of tax havens varies considerably from bank to bank. The mean percentage of profits booked in tax havens is about 20% and ranges from 0% for nine banks to a maximum of 58%. The mean effective tax rate paid by the banks in our sample is 20%, with a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 30%. Seven banks exhibit a particularly low effective tax rate, below or equal to 15%. To better understand this heterogeneity, we analyse the use of tax havens by three banks with a relatively high presence in tax havens: HSBC, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale. We observe a diversity of situations: for HSBC, the bulk of haven profits come from just one haven (Hong Kong), while in other cases multiple tax havens are involved. We estimate the amount of revenues that could be collected by applying a minimum tax rate on the profits of banks. We simulate a tax similar to the G20/OECD minimum tax proposal ,which the majority of the Inclusive Framework jurisdictions supported in July 2021. In this proposal each parent country would collect the tax deficit of its own banks. For instance, if the internationally agreed minimum tax rate is 15% and a German multinational bank has an effective tax rate of 10% on the profits it books in Singapore, Germany would impose an additional tax of 5% on these profits to arrive at an effective rate of 15%. We consider three minimum tax rates—15%, 21%, and 25%—and in each case compute the extra tax owed per bank and tabulate results by headquarter country. Our findings show that a minimum tax has significant revenue potential. With a 25% minimum tax rate, our sample of European banks would have to pay EUR 10-13 billion in additional taxes annually. Lower tax rates reduce the gains to EUR 6-9 billion for the 21% tax rate and EUR 3-5 billion for the 15% tax rate. Banks with low effective tax rates—which tend to make use of tax havens to shift profits and lower their tax liability—would be particularly affected. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of country-by-country reporting, a vital piece of information to track profit shifting and corporate tax avoidance. They also suggest that despite the growing salience of these issues in the public debate and in the policy world, European banks have not significantly curtailed their use of tax havens since 2014. More ambitious initiatives—such as a global minimum tax with a 25% rate—may be necessary to curb the use of tax havens by the banking sector. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03350725&r= |
| By: | Giulia Aliprandi (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mona Baraké (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Paul-Emmanuel Chouc (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | This study documents the activity of European banks in tax havens and how this activity has evolved since 2014. The analysis covers 36 systemic European banks that have been required to publicly report country-by-country data on their activities since 2015. We study the level and evolution of the profits booked by these banks in tax havens over the 2014-2020 period. We also compute their effective tax rates and their tax deficit—defined as the difference between what these banks currently pay in taxes and what they would pay if they were subject to a minimum effective tax rate in each country. We start by creating a list of tax haven jurisdictions used by the banking sector. We combine two indicators to identify tax havens: the effective tax rate on bank profit and the amount of bank profit per employee. Overall, 17 jurisdictions feature in our list: Bahamas, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Hong Kong, Ireland, Isle of Man, Jersey, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Macao, Malta, Mauritius, Panama, and Qatar. Using this list, we show that European banks use tax havens significantly, with no trend during the 2014–2020 period. The main European banks book EUR 20 billion (or 14% of their total profits) in tax havens each year. This percentage has been stable since 2014 despite the introduction of mandatory information disclosure. Bank profitability in tax havens is abnormally high: EUR 238 000 per employee, as opposed to around EUR 65 000 in non-haven countries. This suggests that the profits booked in tax havens are primarily shifted out of other countries where service production occurs. Around 25% of the profits made by the European banks in our sample are booked in countries with an effective tax rate lower than 15%. The use of tax havens varies considerably from bank to bank. The mean percentage of profits booked in tax havens is about 20% and ranges from 0% for nine banks to a maximum of 58%. The mean effective tax rate paid by the banks in our sample is 20%, with a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 30%. Seven banks exhibit a particularly low effective tax rate, below or equal to 15%. To better understand this heterogeneity, we analyse the use of tax havens by three banks with a relatively high presence in tax havens: HSBC, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale. We observe a diversity of situations: for HSBC, the bulk of haven profits come from just one haven (Hong Kong), while in other cases multiple tax havens are involved. We estimate the amount of revenues that could be collected by applying a minimum tax rate on the profits of banks. We simulate a tax similar to the G20/OECD minimum tax proposal ,which the majority of the Inclusive Framework jurisdictions supported in July 2021. In this proposal each parent country would collect the tax deficit of its own banks. For instance, if the internationally agreed minimum tax rate is 15% and a German multinational bank has an effective tax rate of 10% on the profits it books in Singapore, Germany would impose an additional tax of 5% on these profits to arrive at an effective rate of 15%. We consider three minimum tax rates—15%, 21%, and 25%—and in each case compute the extra tax owed per bank and tabulate results by headquarter country. Our findings show that a minimum tax has significant revenue potential. With a 25% minimum tax rate, our sample of European banks would have to pay EUR 10-13 billion in additional taxes annually. Lower tax rates reduce the gains to EUR 6-9 billion for the 21% tax rate and EUR 3-5 billion for the 15% tax rate. Banks with low effective tax rates—which tend to make use of tax havens to shift profits and lower their tax liability—would be particularly affected. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of country-by-country reporting, a vital piece of information to track profit shifting and corporate tax avoidance. They also suggest that despite the growing salience of these issues in the public debate and in the policy world, European banks have not significantly curtailed their use of tax havens since 2014. More ambitious initiatives—such as a global minimum tax with a 25% rate—may be necessary to curb the use of tax havens by the banking sector. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03350725&r= |
| By: | Giulia Aliprandi (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mona Baraké (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory); Paul-Emmanuel Chouc (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | This study documents the activity of European banks in tax havens and how this activity has evolved since 2014. The analysis covers 36 systemic European banks that have been required to publicly report country-by-country data on their activities since 2015. We study the level and evolution of the profits booked by these banks in tax havens over the 2014-2020 period. We also compute their effective tax rates and their tax deficit—defined as the difference between what these banks currently pay in taxes and what they would pay if they were subject to a minimum effective tax rate in each country. We start by creating a list of tax haven jurisdictions used by the banking sector. We combine two indicators to identify tax havens: the effective tax rate on bank profit and the amount of bank profit per employee. Overall, 17 jurisdictions feature in our list: Bahamas, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Guernsey, Gibraltar, Hong Kong, Ireland, Isle of Man, Jersey, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Macao, Malta, Mauritius, Panama, and Qatar. Using this list, we show that European banks use tax havens significantly, with no trend during the 2014–2020 period. The main European banks book EUR 20 billion (or 14% of their total profits) in tax havens each year. This percentage has been stable since 2014 despite the introduction of mandatory information disclosure. Bank profitability in tax havens is abnormally high: EUR 238 000 per employee, as opposed to around EUR 65 000 in non-haven countries. This suggests that the profits booked in tax havens are primarily shifted out of other countries where service production occurs. Around 25% of the profits made by the European banks in our sample are booked in countries with an effective tax rate lower than 15%. The use of tax havens varies considerably from bank to bank. The mean percentage of profits booked in tax havens is about 20% and ranges from 0% for nine banks to a maximum of 58%. The mean effective tax rate paid by the banks in our sample is 20%, with a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 30%. Seven banks exhibit a particularly low effective tax rate, below or equal to 15%. To better understand this heterogeneity, we analyse the use of tax havens by three banks with a relatively high presence in tax havens: HSBC, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale. We observe a diversity of situations: for HSBC, the bulk of haven profits come from just one haven (Hong Kong), while in other cases multiple tax havens are involved. We estimate the amount of revenues that could be collected by applying a minimum tax rate on the profits of banks. We simulate a tax similar to the G20/OECD minimum tax proposal ,which the majority of the Inclusive Framework jurisdictions supported in July 2021. In this proposal each parent country would collect the tax deficit of its own banks. For instance, if the internationally agreed minimum tax rate is 15% and a German multinational bank has an effective tax rate of 10% on the profits it books in Singapore, Germany would impose an additional tax of 5% on these profits to arrive at an effective rate of 15%. We consider three minimum tax rates—15%, 21%, and 25%—and in each case compute the extra tax owed per bank and tabulate results by headquarter country. Our findings show that a minimum tax has significant revenue potential. With a 25% minimum tax rate, our sample of European banks would have to pay EUR 10-13 billion in additional taxes annually. Lower tax rates reduce the gains to EUR 6-9 billion for the 21% tax rate and EUR 3-5 billion for the 15% tax rate. Banks with low effective tax rates—which tend to make use of tax havens to shift profits and lower their tax liability—would be particularly affected. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of country-by-country reporting, a vital piece of information to track profit shifting and corporate tax avoidance. They also suggest that despite the growing salience of these issues in the public debate and in the policy world, European banks have not significantly curtailed their use of tax havens since 2014. More ambitious initiatives—such as a global minimum tax with a 25% rate—may be necessary to curb the use of tax havens by the banking sector. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03350725&r= |