nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2021‒08‒16
33 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Online Work in the Philippines: Some Lessons in the Asian Context By Serafica, Ramonette B.; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Baje, Lora Kryz C.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr.
  2. China, India, Myanmar: Playing Rohingya Roulette By Hossain Ahmed Taufiq
  3. Dutch Curse on Indonesia: The Morality of Asian Development Bank (ADB) Loan Projects By Muhammad Amir Ingratubun
  6. How COVID-19 Affects Food Security in Indonesia By Mohamad Ikhsan; I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda
  8. Effect of Gas Subsidies In Indonesia By Mark Horridge; Elizabeth L. Roos
  10. Applying Evolutionary Economic Geography beyond case studies in the Global North: Regional diversification in Vietnam By Moritz Breul; Fabio Pruß;
  11. Urban Poverty in Vietnam: Recent Evidences from Household Surveys By Nguyen, Cuong
  12. Quantifying the Impacts of COVID-19 Mobility Restrictions on Ridership and Farebox Revenues: The Case of Mass Rapid Transit in Jakarta, Indonesia By Yusuf Sofiyandi; Yusuf Reza Kurniawan; Khoirunurrofik; Prayoga Wiradisuria; Dikki Nur Ahmad Saleh
  13. Pasar Modal Syariah di Indonesia By putri, Aulia ananda
  14. Effects of monetary policy communication in emerging market economies: Evidence from Malaysia By Sui-Jade Ho; Ozer Karagedikli
  15. Economics of co-firing rice straw in coal power plants in Vietnam By an Ha Truong; Minh Ha-Duong
  16. Assessing the Resurgent Irrigation Development Program of the Philippines - Water Resources Component By Tabios, Guillermo Q. III; de Leon, Tomas Paolo Z.
  17. Cross-border Data Regulation for Digital Platforms: Data Privacy and Security By Serzo, Aiken Larisa O.
  18. Why East Asian students perform better in mathematics than their peers: An investigation using a machine learning approach By Hanol Lee; Jong-Wha Lee
  19. Tax Education and Tax Awareness: An Analysis on Indonesian Tax Education Program By Yulianti Abbas; Christine Tjen; Panggah Tri Wicaksono
  20. Globalisation, migration, trade and growth: honouring the contribution of Jeff Williamson to Australian and Asia-Pacific economic history—Guest Editor's introduction By Seltzer, Andrew J.
  21. Mitigating the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Poverty By Reyes, Celia M.; Asis, Ronina D.; Arboneda, Arkin A.; Vargas, Anna Rita P.
  22. The Structure of Social Relations in the Community: An Empirical Analysis for Achieving Social and Economic Inclusion By Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Cabaero, Carlos C.
  23. Analysis of the 2020 President's Budget By Cuenca, Janet S.
  24. A Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) By Rimmer, Matthew
  25. Can the Indonesian banking industry benefit from a risk-based deposit insurance system? By Nizar, Muhammad Afdi; Mansur, Alfan
  26. Assessing Indonesia’s Inclusive Employment Opportunities for People with Disability in the COVID-19 Era By Atiqah Amanda Siregar; Faizal Rahmanto Moeis; Wildan Al Kautsar Anky
  27. Philippines: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Philippines By International Monetary Fund
  28. Decoupling Europe By Felbermayr, Gabriel; Gans, Steffen; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai
  29. Developing Rapid Climate Decision Analysis Tool in Small-holder High-Value Crop Farming in Atok, Benguet By Domingo, Sonny N.; Umlas, Anna Jennifer L.; Zuluaga, Katrina Mae C.
  30. The Hype of Social Capital in the Finance - Growth Nexus By Ibrahim D. Raheem; Kazeem B. Ajide; Xuan V. Vo
  31. Philippines: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  32. Islam dan Keindonesiaan : Penerapan Sistem Ekonomi Syariah dalam Pengembangan Ekonomi Ummat pada Masa Pandemi Covid 19 By Daga, Rosnaini
  33. External Debts and Economic Growth when Debts Rating Matters By Ly Dai Hung

  1. By: Serafica, Ramonette B.; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie; Baje, Lora Kryz C.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr.
    Abstract: The landscape of life and work, once shaped by the advancements in the field of information and communications technology is being disrupted once again due to the ongoing pandemic. As people adjust their attitudes towards risks and firms adjust their losses, platform work/online work, or work that is delivered and transacted online, is likely to become part of the new normal. This paper looks into some stylized patterns in online work in the Philippines within the bigger context of the Asian experience. This highlights some of the challenges that pertain to skills and social protection and recommends ways to address these challenges. <p>Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email
    Keywords: Asia, social protection, Coronavirus Disease 2019, Online work, platform work, new normal
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Hossain Ahmed Taufiq
    Abstract: The 2017 crackdown on Rakhine Rohingyas by the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw) pushed more than 600,000 refugees into Bangladesh. Both Western and Islamic countries denounced Aung Sang Suu Kyis government, but both Asian giants, China and India, supported Myanmars actions. Both also have high stakes in Myanmar given their long-term geopolitics and geoeconomic South and Southeast Asian plans. In spite of Myanmar-based commonalities, Chinas and Indias approaches differ significantly, predicting equally dissimilar outcomes. This chapter examines their foreign policy and stakes in Myanmar in order to draw a sketch of the future of Rakhine Rohingyas stuck in Bangladesh.
    Date: 2021–07
  3. By: Muhammad Amir Ingratubun (IPB University, Indonesia)
    Abstract: Natural Resources Curse, known as Dutch Disease, is because of capital inflow which promotes in-crease growth and employment level. Indonesia suffers from Dutch Disease working in reverse be-cause of capital outflow, increase unemployment and poverty, and growth retardations from its borrowing from the ADB. I termed this as Dutch Curse because of the colonial connection the Indonesian and Dutch have since the early 17th century. The Dutch Curse is constantly inflicting Indonesia since 1969 because of ADB loans and their disbursement conditionalities. To resolve these issues, it takes more than just the realignment of Indonesia and ADB cooperation, but also moral responsibility and conscious awareness.
    Keywords: Dutch disease, Dutch curse, disbursement delays, unsustainable development, negative impact, poverty, unemployment, wealth leakages
    Date: 2021–05
  4. By: Daga, Rosnaini; A, Fahira Al'ainaa
    Abstract: Penelitian ini berjudul Analisis Penerapan Sistem Bagi Hasil Pada Pembiayaan Mudharabah Di PT Bank Negara Indonesia Syariah cabang Makassar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penerapan sistem bagi hasil pada pembiayaan mudharabah yang dilakukan PT Bank Negara Indonesia Syariah cabang Makassar. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode penelitian kualitatif, sehingga menghasilkan data deskriptif. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik pengumpulan data wawancara dan dokumentasi.
    Date: 2021–06–29
  5. By: Rich, Kelly
    Abstract: This paper was created to determine the effect of Covid-19 on Indonesia Banking . This research uses a descriptive method. After it ends, the results of the research can provide information about the impact of Covid-19 on banking as measured by NPL in Indonesia. Based on the combined graph trend of the two variables (Covid-19 and NPL), Covid-19 has an impact on the increase in NPL
    Date: 2021–06–23
  6. By: Mohamad Ikhsan (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia)
    Abstract: As in other countries, COVID-19 has created pressure on Indonesia’s food security through decreased income and reduced access, as well as increased transaction costs and uncertainty in the country’s food system. Before assessing these impacts of COVID-19, we highlight several key facts about Indonesia’s food system, including the high proportion of net consumers among farmers and the domination of informal small-medium enterprises in the supply chain. We then emphasize that food security is threatened by income shocks and purchasing power decline due to economic contraction, while effects on the supply side have been limited so far. While farmers’ terms of trade have increased throughout the pandemic, downstream food SMEs such as traditional food vendors are likely worse affected by COVID-19 restriction measures. On the labor market, we observe a substantial shift of workers to agriculture, accompanied by a deeper drop in the sector’s wage level compared to other sectors. Finally, we caution that risks to food security remain, especially as Indonesia faces new COVID-19 outbreaks post-Eid 2021, and outline policy recommendations related to social safety nets, supply chain resilience, and the use of technology.
    Keywords: Food Security — COVID-19 — Food Supply Chain — Food SMEs — Indonesia
    JEL: O13 Q18
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Patthira Phon-ngam
    Abstract: East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC) has originated from the cooperation of the countries in the Great Mekong Basin Sub-Region which consists of China, Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand. The purpose of this route is to create economic opportunity expectedly to generate more income and reduce poverty for the countries in this region . The length of this road is 1,450 kilometers. 950 of the 1,450 kilometers is in Thailand from Mukdahan Province to Tak Province. It will be the route of international cooperation based on warm friendship and trust in both social and economic aspects The promotion of business investment, travel and services, as well as human resource development will contribute to the development of the area. EWEC may cause the impact on this region in many ways higher security risk along cross border, political problems, drugs, international crime, illegal labors, worker trading, infectious disease, including the destruction of natural resources Key Words: Economic Corridor, Free Follow, Environmental Issues
    Date: 2021–03
  8. By: Mark Horridge; Elizabeth L. Roos
    Abstract: Countries that export energy or minerals often feel that they would be richer if the commodities could be processed onshore rather than overseas. In this way, it is thought, 'value-adding' could occur locally, raising local GDP. Such countries may subsidize local use of the exportable commodity. The strategy, which involves 'picking winners', is not obviously sensible. Why not sell at the higher, export, price? If a subsidy to local industry were needed, why not offer an explicit subsidy, rather than a hidden subsidy in the form of cheaper inputs. A more orthodox economic approach would stress that prosperity is based on: * human capital (a skilled and well-educated workforce); * good infrastructure (eg, good roads and reliable electricity); * good governance (not too much red tape or corruption); * and, with luck, valuable natural resources! The focus of this study is Indonesia's effort to use more natural gas locally rather exporting it. To further this aim, domestic users are offered natural gas at a price below the export (world) price. There is in effect a subsidy to local use of natural gas. Using INDORANI, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Indonesia, we simulate the effect of removing this subsidy.
    Keywords: Regional modelling gas subsidies Indonesia
    JEL: C68 H21
    Date: 2021–08
  9. By: Daga, Rosnaini; Palisungan, Elvira
    Abstract: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh profitabilitas terhadap nilai perusahaan pada perusahaan. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah perusahaan sub sektor lembaga pembiayaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2018-2020 yang berjumlah populasi sebanyak 19 perusahaan. Penentuan jumlah sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode purposive sampling, tujuan menggunakan purposive sampling ialah untuk mendapatkan sampel yang representatif sesuai dengan kriteria yang ditentukan peneliti
    Date: 2021–06–27
  10. By: Moritz Breul; Fabio Pruß;
    Abstract: Hitherto, the path-dependent understanding of regional diversification in Evolutionary Economic Geography (EEG) has drawn largely on insights into industrialized countries. However, in the past few decades several regions in the Global South have undergone rapid structural transformations despite starting out with unfavourable regional asset bases. This raises the question as to whether the strong emphasis on endogenous capabilities in EEG also provides a sound theoretical framework for explaining these tremendous diversification dynamics. This paper therefore aims to re-evaluate the wider validity of the path-dependent conceptualization of regional diversification in the context of a lower-middle income economy. To this end, we analyse the diversification of Vietnamese regions between 2006 and 2015. In order to take into account context-specific conditions that characterize Vietnam’s economy, we add the role of foreign-owned firms and state-owned enterprises to the conceptualization of regional diversification processes. While the role of relatedness holds true for Vietnam, the presence of foreign- owned firms allowed Vietnamese regions to break away from path dependency and diversify to unrelated industries. The findings highlight that only by adapting the analysis to context-specific conditions are we able to understand how regional diversification takes place across different settings.
    Keywords: Regional diversification, relatedness, Evolutionary Economic Geography, path creation, Vietnam
    Date: 2021–07
  11. By: Nguyen, Cuong
    Abstract: This study examines the poverty trend and profiles of urban population in Vietnam using recent household surveys. While the poverty rate in the urban areas is very small, at 1.1% in 2018, the vulnerability rate remains rather high, at 8.3%. We find different poverty rates across population sub-groups. Even living in the same urban areas, ethnic minorities have much higher poverty and vulnerability rates than Kinh/Hoa. The poverty rate of Kinh/Hoa was only 0.6% in 2018, while this rate of ethnic minorities was 14.6%. Similarly, there are large differences in the poverty and vulnerability rates between households with different education levels and occupations.
    Keywords: Urbanization; Urban poverty; Inequality, Household Survey; Vietnam.
    JEL: O2
    Date: 2020–07–15
  12. By: Yusuf Sofiyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Yusuf Reza Kurniawan (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Khoirunurrofik (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Prayoga Wiradisuria (PT. MRT Jakarta); Dikki Nur Ahmad Saleh (PT. MRT Jakarta)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of mobility restriction on daily mass rapid transit (MRT) ridership in Jakarta-Indonesia, and its implication for the farebox revenues during the pandemic COVID-19 outbreak. For the analysis, we primarily used the fare cost and daily passenger datasets of 156 origin-destination pair routes from April 2019 to May 2021. Three types of mobility restrictions are examined: (i) 50% of maximum passenger capacity setting, (ii) station closures, and (iii) changes in service operating hours. A panel dynamic fixed-effects regression model was fitted to quantify the economic losses on farebox revenue due to the mobility restrictions. We find that the average daily MRT ridership decrease by 56.6% due to capacity restriction, 32.6% due to station closures, and 1.7% due to a one-hour decrease in service operating hours. The station closures lead to a route diversion with a significant increase in ridership among other stations. While the effects of capacity restriction and changes in service operation hours have a larger impact during weekdays, the effect of station closure is more pronounced during the weekend. Our estimation results also reveal that the mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic have caused a loss of IDR 179.4 billion or equal to USD12.4 million in terms of potential farebox revenues to the MRT train service operator. This amount could contribute to 65.6% of total realized farebox revenues in 2019–2020. This finding suggests the importance of adjusting the tariff subsidy policy in times of crisis, considering that the company still bears the operating costs despite decreasing operating hours. It also advises the company to take this crisis as momentum to enhance operational efficiency and expand the business prospect from non-fare box revenue.
    Keywords: COVID-19 — pandemic — public transport — MRT — ridership — mobility restriction
    JEL: L92 O18 R40
    Date: 2021
  13. By: putri, Aulia ananda
    Abstract: Artikel ini berisi tentang pasar modal yang berlandaskan syariah Islam, yang berkaitan tentang : Upaya untuk mendeskripskian secara analitis saham terbatas dan pasar modal secara syariah pespektif. Pasar modal yaitu salah satu alternatif sumber pendanaan bagi perusahaan sekaligus sebagai sarana investasi bagi pemodal. Implementasi dari hal tersebut adalah perusahaan dapat memperoleh pendanaan melalui penerbitan efek yang bersifat ekuitas atatu surat utang. Disamping itu pemodal juga dapat melakukan investasi di pasar modal dengan membeli bagian-bagian tersebut. Oleh karna itu,tulisan ini mencoba menguraiakan implementasinya di sektor keuangan di negara-negara Islam,ini menelusuri sejarah perkembangan saham dan pasar modal.
    Date: 2021–06–05
  14. By: Sui-Jade Ho; Ozer Karagedikli
    Abstract: By conducting a high-frequency event study similar to Gürkaynak et al. (2005), we find that two factors are needed to adequately capture the effects of monetary policy announcements for a non-inflation targeting emerging market economy, Malaysia. These factors are the surprise changes in the policy rate (Overnight Policy Rate, OPR) and the information about the future path of monetary policy. We find that the path factor has a strong influence on long-term government bond yields, corporate bond yields and spreads. Our findings are indicative of the view that monetary policy communication is mostly about revealing information pertaining to the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook, as opposed to an unconditional binding commitment to follow a specific policy path.
    JEL: J31 J64
    Date: 2021–07
  15. By: an Ha Truong (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Purpose: As governments force electricity producers to use more renewable energy sources, over a hundred thermal power plants in high-income countries turned to biomass as a partial or complete replacement for coal. Is the co-firing technology appropriate for Vietnam? Method: The technology assessment study is conducted by building an integrated lifecycle model of the sector, tracking material and financial flows from fuel sourcing to airborne emissions, simulating the economics, environmental and social implications of blending 5% of rice straw in two different existing coal power plants in Vietnam. Findings: The business value of co-firing is positive –straw is cheaper than coal–. It is likely not large enough to motivate the stakeholders. Co-firing creates an external social benefit by reducing air-borne pollution and creating jobs. It reduces the pollution caused by open field straw burning. We found the external social benefit to be several times larger than the private business value. Within that external benefit, the social value of avoided SO2, PM2.5 and NOx emissions dominates the social value of avoided CO2 emissions. The net job creation effect is positive: collecting straw creates more employment than using less coal destroys. Originality and limitations: This is the first technology assessment of co-firing biomass in coal power plants in Vietnam and one of the first for a subtropical middle-income country. The study only considers rice straw, and it does not address the role of government nor the biomass market functioning. Conclusion: The price of coal is the primary determinant of co-firing business value. There is an empirical economic justification for a public intervention to promote co-firing biomass in Vietnam. Local air quality goals, rather than greenhouse gas reduction policy, can justify such regulations.
    Keywords: Biomass cofiring,Emission control,Coal power,Lifecycle Assessment LCA,Technology assessment
    Date: 2021–07–02
  16. By: Tabios, Guillermo Q. III; de Leon, Tomas Paolo Z.
    Abstract: This study assesses the irrigation service areas of Angat-Maasim River Irrigation System (AMRIS) and Pampanga Delta Irrigation Systems (PDRIS) benchmarked against design area water availability, land use (including flood vulnerability), and status of irrigation facilities using resource assessment and watershed and irrigation modeling. The study finds that irrigation area of AMRIS fell below design area due to urbanization, lowered height of Bustos Dam, complicated by competing use of water for hydropower. Likewise, the PDRIS system only realized half of the target irrigation service area due to urbanization, flooding, and the low diversion dam height of Cong Dadong Dam. Among others, the study recommends conduct of periodic appraisal or assessment of the efficiency of irrigation water delivery operations through hydraulic model simulations to maintain and upgrade the irrigation facility as needed.
    Keywords: irrigation system, , irrigation water delivery operation, hydraulic model simulation
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Serzo, Aiken Larisa O.
    Abstract: The rise of digital platforms necessarily entails the processing of personal data between platforms and their users. More than enabling the delivery of services by the platforms, data shared by users has increasingly become valuable as various businesses are able to leverage their access to data in order to create and upsell other services. <p>However, the ability of platforms to engage in cross-border transactions or operations are affected by the stringent requirements of data protection laws, coupled with the divergent regulations among jurisdictions. <p>With the Philippines as an example, this paper points out the salient points in existing data protection regulations and the impact of these principles on both platforms and data subjects. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email
    Keywords: regulatory reform, data privacy, digital platforms, data sharing
    Date: 2020
  18. By: Hanol Lee; Jong-Wha Lee
    Abstract: Using a machine learning approach, we attempt to identify the school-, student-, and country-related factors that predict East Asian students’ higher PISA mathematics scores compared to their international peers. We identify student- and school-related factors, such as metacognition–assess credibility, mathematics learning time, early childhood education and care, grade repetition, school type and size, class size, and student behavior hindering learning, as important predictors of the higher average mathematics scores of East Asian students. Moreover, country-level factors, such as the proportion of youth not in education, training, or employment and the number of R&D researchers, are also found to have high predicting power. The results also highlight the nonlinear and complex relationships between educational inputs and outcomes.
    Keywords: education, East Asia, machine learning, mathematics test score, PISA
    JEL: C53 C55 I21 J24 O1
    Date: 2021–07
  19. By: Yulianti Abbas (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Christine Tjen (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Panggah Tri Wicaksono (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia)
    Abstract: This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of “Pajak Bertutur”, a tax education program in Indonesia. We analyze whether there were differences in students’ tax awareness before and after the program, and whether the results of the program were influenced by students’ familiarity with taxation. We distributed an online survey questionnaire to all students participating in the 2020 tax education program, resulting in a total of 693 responses, 461 for pre-survey and 232 for post-survey. Using multivariate regression analysis, our results suggest that students’ tax awareness level increased after the tax education program. We also found that the increase in tax awareness was greater for students who are familiar with tax authority website and those who have learned about taxation before the event. These findings thus indicate that the effectiveness of the tax education program is influenced by the students’ prior knowledge, emphasizing that a continuous tax education program is necessary to improve tax awareness.
    Keywords: tax education — — tax awareness — tax knowledge — tax inclusion
    JEL: A22 H20
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Seltzer, Andrew J.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–07–01
  21. By: Reyes, Celia M.; Asis, Ronina D.; Arboneda, Arkin A.; Vargas, Anna Rita P.
    Abstract: Poverty simulations suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures implemented by the government to contain the spread of the virus will increase the number of poor in the country. As such, various social safety nets were implemented by both the national and local government agencies to help the affected individuals, families, and enterprises cope with the economic effects of COVID-19 and to smoothen their consumption particularly during the initial stages of the national lockdown, albeit temporarily. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email
    Keywords: poverty, Philippines, COVID-19, social amelioration program
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Cabaero, Carlos C.
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent of social deprivation, if any, among the poor and other segments of the community. Specifically, it aims to illustrate the characteristics of social networks that poor families have through social network analysis (SNA). It inquires on the questions – How are the poor situated within the community network? Are they isolated, excluded, or integrated? To examine social inclusion or exclusion, this study uses social relations data (i.e. kinship and friendship ties) gathered in 2016 on all households residing in a rural, fishing village in the Philippines. Its primary objective is to draw insights for developing or improving efforts towards social and economic inclusion of the poor. <p> Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email
    Keywords: Philippines, social inclusion, Social network analysis, social exclusion, inclusive development
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Cuenca, Janet S.
    Abstract: The government budget reflects the government’s spending priorities. It is deemed important to assess whether the priorities as outlined in the proposed 2020 President’s Budget are consistent with the policy pronouncements of the current administration. In this light, the study examines whether budget allocation is consistent with the priorities that the government identified in its various policy pronouncements. It also evaluates the overall fiscal picture as projected in the proposed budget and its consistency with the macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it examines the national revenue program, which together with the national expenditure program, indicates the overall fiscal health in 2020. The budget analysis indicates the high spending priority given to social services sector and economic services sector that is consistent with the policy pronouncements of the government. Nevertheless, the budget cut in the health sector needs further inquiry.
    Keywords: President’s Budget, National Revenue Program, National Expenditure Program, fiscal health, Philippines ?
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Rimmer, Matthew (Queensland University of Technology)
    Abstract: Executive Summary This submission provides a critical analysis of the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – focusing in particular upon intellectual property and innovation policy. Recommendation 1 RCEP has a broad membership – even with the departure of India from the negotiations. Nonetheless, there remain outstanding tensions between participating nations – most notably, Australia and China. The re-emergence of United States into trade diplomacy will also complicate the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 2 The closed, secretive negotiations behind RCEP highlight the need for a reform of the treaty-making process in Australia, as well as the need for a greater supervisory role of the Australian Parliament. Recommendation 3 In terms of intellectual property principles and objectives, RCEP promotes foreign investment and trade, and intellectual property protection and enforcement. The agreement needs a stronger emphasis on public policy objectives – such as access to knowledge; the protection of public health; technology transfer; and sustainable development. Recommendation 4 RCEP establishes TRIPS-norms in respect of economic rights under copyright law. Recommendation 5 The agreement does not though enhance copyright flexibilities and defences – particularly in terms of boosting access to knowledge, education, innovation, and sustainable development. Recommendation 6 RCEP provides for a wide range of remedies for intellectual property enforcement – which include civil remedies, criminal offences and procedures, border measures, technological protection measures, and electronic rights management information. Such measures could be characterised as TRIPS+ obligations. Recommendation 7 The electronic commerce chapter of RCEP is outmoded and anachronistic. Its laissez-faire model for dealing with digital trade and electronic commerce is at odds with domestic pressures in Australia and elsewhere for stronger regulation of digital platforms. Recommendation 8 RCEP provides for protection in respect of trade mark law, unfair competition, designs protection, Internet Domain names, and country names. Recommendation 9 As well as providing safeguards against trade and investment action by tobacco companies and tobacco-friendly states, RCEP should do more to address the tobacco epidemic in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 10 RCEP has a limited array text on geographical indications, taking a rather neutral position in the larger geopolitical debate on the topic between the European Union and the United States. Recommendation 11 RCEP has provisions on plant breeders’ rights and agricultural intellectual property. There is a debate over the impact of such measures upon farmers’ rights in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 12 RCEP does not adequately respond to the issues in respect of patent law and access to essential medicines during the COVID-19 crisis. Likewise, RCEP is not well prepared for future epidemics, pandemics, and public health emergencies. Recommendation 13 RCEP provides limited protection of confidential information and trade secrets – even though there has been much litigation in this field in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 14 RCEP is defective because it fails to consider the inter-relationship between trade, labor rights, and human rights. Recommendation 15 RCEP fails to provide substantive protection of the environment, biodiversity, or climate in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 16 RCEP does little to reform intellectual property in line with the sustainable development goals. Recommendation 17 RCEP does not adequately consider Indigenous rights – including those in the Asia-Pacific. Recommendation 18 RCEP does not contain an investor-state dispute settlement mechanism. However, the Investment Chapter does have a number of items, which are problematic.
    Date: 2021–04–11
  25. By: Nizar, Muhammad Afdi; Mansur, Alfan
    Abstract: A risk-based premium scheme could be a reliable system to determine a fairer deposit insurance premium. This research aimed to assess Indonesian banks’ risk profile, including per size classification and ownership as well as to counterfactually simulate a risk-based deposit insurance system for the individual banks. This research combined analysis of variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric approach applied to 75 banks (2008q1-2019q3). The results showed that big banks did not necessarily posture better risk management compared to small banks. Also, under the risk-based scheme, banks with better risk management could be rewarded, while less prudent banks could be punished.
    Keywords: Deposit; premium; flat-rate; risk-based; banks; insurance
    JEL: C12 C54 G21 G28 G3 G30
    Date: 2021–05
  26. By: Atiqah Amanda Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faizal Rahmanto Moeis (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Wildan Al Kautsar Anky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: Providing access of decent work for all can push the attempt of poverty eradication. However, the decent works will not be attainable without the support of inclusive and equitable education, particularly for people with disability (PWD). To date, PWD still faces challenges in obtaining minimum education, decent work, and adequate supporting infrastructure. Thus, this study aims to analyze; (1) the probability of PWD in getting employment; (2) how much the earning handicap of PWD compare to PWOD group, and (3) how the pandemic of COVID-19 affects the PWD workers. Our study suggests that more experienced, educated, and trained labour force will improve the likelihood of working and having wages. PWD tend to have lower educational attainment and training participation compared to PWOD which provide barriers to achieve jobs that are more productive and end up earning lower wages. Moreover, the reduction of wages are highest among PWD with mobility-related disabilities. Yet, the discussion of factors affecting the low wage of PWD remain inconclusive. Further, in the time of COVID-19 pandemic, all participants of Kartu Prakerja Program from PWD group, who managed to finish the training, perceived that the program increased their skill. Despite of other remaining issues, this is encouraging as the value-added skills can be useful in the labour market, particularly for PWD.
    Keywords: COVID-19 — kartu prakerja — labor market — people with disability — wage
    JEL: C34 J21 J24 J31 J38
    Date: 2021
  27. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The economy is recovering after a major, pandemic-induced economic downturn. The authorities have deployed a comprehensive set of policy responses that have helped to mitigate the socioeconomic impact and maintain financial stability. The economic recovery slowed in the first half of 2021 due to a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Vaccination has started and is poised to accelerate from midyear.
    Date: 2021–08–06
  28. By: Felbermayr, Gabriel; Gans, Steffen; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the vulnerability of international value chains in the face of global shocks. This has triggered a political discussion regarding a possible reshoring of vulnerable supply chains back home. The aim is to reduce dependencies on foreign suppliers and thus improve crisis resilience of the domestic economy. The debate is also rooted in the growing dependence on Asian suppliers and the colliding political and ideological systems between China and the West. Unilateral decoupling of the EU from China (a doubling of trade costs) would reduce real income in the EU on average by 0.8 percent. In terms of GDP in 2019, this equals a permanent loss in real income of 131.4 bn EUR. Should China retaliate, real income would fall by 1.0 percent (170.3 bn EUR). With its extremely interconnected economy, real income in Germany would even decline by 1.4 percent (48.4 bn EUR). China would also lose from such a trade war, with real income declining by 1.3 percent. Should the EU increase its trade barriers against all its non-European trading partners, real income in the Union would fall by 3.5 percent or 584.3 bn EUR in case of a unilateral increase and by 5.3 percent or 873.1 bn EUR in case the rest of the world responds by also raising trade barriers.
    Keywords: European Union,China,Germany,Trade,Global Value Chains,Europäische Union,Deutschland,Handel,Globale Wertschöpfungsketten
    Date: 2021
  29. By: Domingo, Sonny N.; Umlas, Anna Jennifer L.; Zuluaga, Katrina Mae C.
    Abstract: This paper discusses collected data and initial results in developing the rapid climate decision analysis tool applicable to smallholder high value crop farming in Atok, Benguet. The excel-based tool harnesses the knowledge of farmers and agricultural extension workers and aims to aid them in decisionmaking. Information gathered are yields, production costs and prices by crop, season and amount of rainfall. <p>The paper is part of the project titled, "Action ready climate knowledge to improve disaster risk management for smallholder farmers in the Philippines" that explores, among others, the context faced by farmers in making farm decisions, particularly those that are influenced by weather and climate information.
    Keywords: agriculture, climate information, weather information, smallholder farming, decision analysis, Rapid Climate Decision Analysis Tool
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Ibrahim D. Raheem (The EXCAS, Liege, Beligium); Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Nigeria); Xuan V. Vo (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The trilogy among economic growth, social capital (SC), and financial development is examined based on three hypotheses: first, SC is important in the finance-growth nexus. Second, there is a threshold effect of SC in the finance-growth nexus. Third, the SC-finance-growth trilogy depends on the countries' income level. Building dataset for 70 countries,someinteresting results were obtained: (i) the marginal effects of both SC and finance promotes economic growth at higher levels; (ii)there is evidence of a threshold effect of SC, as finance enhances more growth when SC is below the threshold level; (iii) higher-income countries tend not to benefit from the SC-finance-growth trilogy. These results suggest that the influence of SC on growth trajectory is exaggerated in the literature. The study recommends that policymakers should pursue other sources of economic growth aside SC, while ensuring that the level of SC does not deteriorate.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Financial development, Social capital, and Threshold effect
    JEL: O43 G20
    Date: 2021–01
  31. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Date: 2021–08–06
  32. By: Daga, Rosnaini
    Abstract: Pandemi ini telah menyebabkan gangguan sosioekonomi global, penundaan atau pembatalan acara olahraga dan budaya (New Work Times: 2020), dan kekhawatiran luas tentang kekurangan persediaan barang yang mendorong pembelian panik. Bukan hanya itu, bahkan yang paling menjadi korban dari covid-19 ini adalah ekonomi masyarakat menengah ke bawah yang kesehariannya berdagang atau berjualan. Banyak bisnis yang harus ditutup karena peraturan Pembatsan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB) yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah. Keadaan Ekonomi Masyarakat di Masa COVID-19 Menurut keterangan Sri Mulayani, terkait Work From Home (WFH) baik untuk sektor pemerintah maupun sektor swasta, ekonomi mulai mengalami perlambatan kegiatan usaha di akhir bulan Maret 2020 yang berpotensi menurunkan penyerahan dalam negeri yang kemudian akan menekan penerimaan Pajak Pertambahan Nilai Dalam Negeri (PPN DN) di bulan April 2020. Kondisi tersebut kemungkinan akan berlanjut dan semakin terkontraksi di bulan Mei, mengingat di bulan April sebagian daerah sudah melaksanakan Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB) di beberapa wilayah terdampak
    Date: 2021–06–29
  33. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debts supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debts rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over 1990-2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows an U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing then increasing on the external debts supply. An possible explaination can rely on the sovereign debts rating. For low supply of external debts, a higher supply of debts reduces the debts rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, then, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed-effect panel regression.
    Keywords: Economic Growth,Cross-Section Regression,Panel Regression,External Debts
    Date: 2021–06

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