nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2021‒05‒31
37 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Manufacturing exports after the lifting of economic sanctions in Myanmar By Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  2. Developing Indicators for Evaluating Climate-Smart Agriculture Practices in Vietnam By Dang Kim Khoi; Nguyen Thi Tam Ninh; Doan Minh Thu; Vu Thi Bich Ngoc; Pham Duc Thinh; Do Huy Thiep; Nguyen Phuong Anh
  3. Gender Differences in Access to Health Care Among the Elderly: Evidence from Southeast Asia By van der Meulen Rodgers , Yana; Zveglich, Jr. , Joseph E.
  4. ASEAN Development and Innovation Strategy in the Era of New Industrialisation By Masahito Ambashi
  5. Intention To Buy Air Ticket Online of Vietnamese Consumers By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Tuan, Huynh Quoc
  6. Daily New Covid-19 Cases, The Movement Control Order, and Malaysian Stock Market Returns By Chia, Ricky Chee-Jiun; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Rowland, Racquel
  7. The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Households during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Emerging Economies By Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Nghiem, Giang
  8. The impact of service quality on passenger loyalty and the mediating roles of perceive value, airline image, passenger trust, and satisfaction: A Study of domestic flights with Vietnamese Low-Cost Airlines By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Vuong, Bui Nhat
  9. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change in Fisheries and Agriculture in the Coastal Area of Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam By Truong Van Dan; Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy; Mac Nhu Binh
  10. Strengthening Waste Management Policies to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic By Hidetoshi Nishimura; Michikazu Kojima; Fusanori Iwasaki; Hendro Putra Johannes; Ellen Putri Edita
  11. Impacts of Unusual Market Activity Announcement on Stock Return: Evidence from The Ace Market in Malaysia By Chen, Dylan Siong-Yain; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
  12. Applying Artificial Intelligence on Satellite Imagery to Compile Granular Poverty Statistics By Hofer, Martin; Sako, Tomas; Martinez, Jr., Arturo; Addawe, Mildred; Durante, Ron Lester
  13. How “Monetization” Really Works—Examples from Nations’ Policy Responses to COVID-19 By Felipe, Jesus; Fullwiler, Scott; Estrada, Gemma; Jaber, Maria Hanna; Magadia, Mary Ann; Patagan, Remrick
  14. The Impact of Pandemic to Medium, Small and Medium Enterprises and Digital Platforms in Indonesia By panggantara, Pang william
  15. THE EFFECTS OF ASEAN-CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT ON BILATERAL TRADES By Wong, Colin Koh-King; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Arip, Mohammad Affendy
  16. The Impact of Vocational Training on Labor Market Outcomes in the Philippines By Vandenberg , Paul; Laranjo, Jade
  17. Forecasting developing Asian economies during normal times and large external shocks: Approaches and challenges By Kensuke Tanaka
  18. Survey methods for estimating the size of weak-tie personal networks By Feehan, Dennis; Son, Vo Hai; Abdul-Quader, Abu
  19. The Importance of Supporting MSMEs’ Digitalization in Indonesia By , Michelle
  20. Philippine Rural Finance: Innovations and Current Issues By Vargas, Jerrick Jan
  21. Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent findings from historical national accounting By Stephen Broadberry
  22. The Influence of US Dollar Funding Conditions on Asian Financial Markets By Lee , Junkyu; Rosenkranz , Peter; Ramayandi , Arief; Pham , Hoang
  23. Digital Platforms Utilization for MSMEs Growth By , Michelle
  24. Predicting Poverty Using Geospatial Data in Thailand By Puttanapong , Nattapong; Martinez, Jr. , Arturo; Addawe, Mildred; Bulan, Joseph; Durante , Ron Lester; Martillan , Marymell
  25. The Effects of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint Adoption on Intra-ASEAN Trade on Manufacturing Products By Wong, Colin Koh King; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Arip, Mohammad Affendy
  26. Concentration in Asia’s Cross-Border Banking: Determinants and Impacts By Lapid , Ana Kristel; Mercado, Jr. , Rogelio; Rosenkranz, Peter
  27. The Role of Technology in Business-to-Consumer E-Commerce: Evidence from Asia By Kang , Jong Woo; Wang, Tengfei; Ramizo, Dorothea
  28. The Impact of United States Tax Policies on Sectoral Foreign Direct Investment to Asia By Mercer-Blackman , Valerie; Camingue-Romance, Shiela
  29. The Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting By Broadberry, Stephen N
  30. Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails By Sune Karlsson; Stepan Mazur; Hoang Nguyen
  31. Gender Differences in Job Search and the Earnings Gap: Evidence from Business Majors By Cortes, Patricia; Pan, Jessica; Pilossoph, Laura; Zafar, Basit
  32. From Guangzhou to Naples: French exports of plastic waste By Julien Martin; Isabelle Mejean; Inés Picard; Benoît Schmutz
  33. An Analysis of the Worldwide Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: What and How Much? By Felipe, Jesus; Fullwiler, Scott; Bajaro, Donna Faye; Yusoph, Al-Habbyel; Askin, Simon Alec; Cruz, Martin Alexander
  34. The Wellness Economy: A Comprehensive System of National Accounts Approach By Consing III, Rafael Martin M.; Barsabal, Michael John M.; Alvarez, Julian Thomas B.; Mariasingham , Mahinthan J.
  35. What Works to Control COVID-19?: Econometric Analysis of a Cross-Country Panel By Chen , Liming; Raitzer, David; Hasan, Rana; Lavado, Rouselle; Velarde , Orlee
  36. Maintaining Fiscal Sustainability during the Pandemic Crisis By Fauziah Zen; Fukunari Kimura
  37. What do we know from the vast literature on efficiency and productivity in healthcare? A Systematic Review and Bibliometric Analysis By Kok Fong See; Shawna Grosskopf; Vivian Valdmanis; Valentin Zelenyuk

  1. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This paper aims to evaluate Myanmar’s exports of manufacturing products by using a gravity trade model for emerging ASEAN economies. The main focus of this study is whether Myanmar’s manufacturing exports have recovered towards the gravity-trade-standard of the other emerging ASEAN countries for the post-sanction period of 2013-2018. The main findings from the gravity trade model estimation are summarized as follows. First, the Myanmar’s manufacturing exports for the post-sanction period have been still significantly below the level of the gravity-trade-standard. Second, the downward deviation from the standard could be explained by the two Myanmar-specific factors, i.e., the low institutional quality and the Dutch Disease effect in the Myanmar’s exports to western countries, but not fully in those to Asian countries. The additional factor for the deviation against Asian countries might come from Myanmar’s sluggish participation in the international production networks.
    Keywords: Myanmar’s manufacturing exports, lifting economic sanctions, gravity trade model, in-sample and out-of-sample estimations, institutional quality, Dutch Disease, international production networks
    JEL: F14 O53
    Date: 2021–05
  2. By: Dang Kim Khoi; Nguyen Thi Tam Ninh; Doan Minh Thu; Vu Thi Bich Ngoc; Pham Duc Thinh; Do Huy Thiep; Nguyen Phuong Anh
    Abstract: Vietnam, an agriculture-based country, presents a typical example of food production—climate change paradox. Agriculture is a major contributor to the national and household economies, accounting for approximately 20.0 percent of Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 11.9 percent of total export value, and generating about 67.7 percent employment in 2015. Agricultural growth is, thus, seen as a means to ensure national food security and a tool to generate income. However, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment or MONRE (2015) notes that agriculture is the second biggest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, contributing 39.1 percent of the total GHG of the Vietnamese economy in 2010. To fulfill the Paris 21st Conference of the Parties or COP 21 agreement, the country needs to reduce its total GHG by 825 percent. Â
    Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, Vietnam
    Date: 2020
  3. By: van der Meulen Rodgers , Yana (Rutgers University); Zveglich, Jr. , Joseph E. (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Populations become increasingly feminized with age. Since older women are more vulnerable to poverty, they may find it more difficult than men to access health care. This study examines factors that may constrain older persons in Southeast Asia from meeting their health-care needs when sick. Our analysis of household survey data from Cambodia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam shows that women are more likely to have reported sickness or injury than men, a difference that is meaningful and statistically significant. While women in Cambodia and the Philippines are more likely to seek treatment than men, the gender difference is reversed in Viet Nam where stigma and discrimination associated with some diseases may more strongly deter women. The probability of seeking treatment rises with age more sharply for women than men in all countries. However, for the subsample of elders, the gender difference is not significant.
    Keywords: elderly; gender; health; health care; women
    JEL: I14 J16 O53
    Date: 2021–02–12
  4. By: Masahito Ambashi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade will continue to play an important role in the assimilation of the latest technologies within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS). However, it is also necessary for ASEAN firms to enhance their own innovation capabilities to create new business opportunities. Fostering this innovation requires developing human resources by not only equipping workers with appropriate knowledge and the skills needed by the manufacturing industry, but also nurturing ‘technology entrepreneurs’ who can innovate using the latest information and communication technology. While AMS can accelerate technology adoption by strengthening networks, particularly with developed countries, they also need to create unique ‘product innovation’ of goods and services in addition to cost-reducing ‘process innovation.’ With respect to national innovation systems, AMS can use ‘leapfrogging’ (skipping development stages) and ‘feedback’ (introducing advanced technologies into old industries) development strategies based on the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and establish an ‘innovation niche’ that is competitive, attractive, and unique to the rest of the world. This policy brief presents goals, analyses, and policy recommendations on human resource development, technology adoption, and innovation to achieve quality growth in the era of new industrialisation.
    Date: 2020–07–16
  5. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Tuan, Huynh Quoc
    Abstract: The study aimed to identify and measure the factors affecting the intention to buy air ticket online in Vietnam by surveying 331 consumers aged 18 and over who bought air ticket online. The SPSS 20 tool was used to analyze the reliability of the scale through the Cronbach's Alpha coefficient, EFA exploratory factor analysis, and linear regression analysis. Research results show that positive impact factors, decreasing by their strength, include: Perceived Benefit, Reliability, Reputation, Subjective Norm, Perceived Ease of Use. Meanwhile, Perceived Risk has a negative impact on the intention to buy air ticket of consumers. The results also help managers recognize the importance of the factors that affect the buying behavior of the consumers, and consequently make appropriate strategic adjustments and actions in the competitive process for air ticket online presently.
    Date: 2021–05–20
  6. By: Chia, Ricky Chee-Jiun; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Rowland, Racquel
    Abstract: ABSTRACT The Movement Control Order (MCO) not only restricts movement of human being, it also reduces firms’ financial profits and brings significant impact to stock returns. The objective of this study is to examine the relation between Malaysian stock market returns and variables related to the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index and eight selected main indices from 2 January 2020 to April 30, 2020, which includes the first three MCOs, are considered in this study. The results show that daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths had negative but insignificant impact on the returns on indices. Interestingly, MCO had significant and positive impact on all the indices’ returns while oversea financial risks had negative impact on these returns. Furthermore, it is found that the degree of impacts of MCO and oversea financial risks varied positively with the firm size of the indices’ constituent companies. China’s decision on unchanged loan prime rate on the 20 February 2020 was a favorable news to the Malaysia stock markets as indicated by the positive returns on all the indices. Similarly, the degree of impact of the China interest policy also varied positively with the firms’ characteristics. These findings are useful for investors in the Bursa Malaysia to manage their investment portfolios based on their appetites for risk.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Movement Control Order; Pandemic outbreak; Bursa Malaysia
    JEL: G10 G14 H0
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Nghiem, Giang
    Abstract: In response to the economic crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments provided financial assistance to households. Using representative consumer surveys conducted during the pandemic in 2020, we examine the effects of this fiscal policy instrument on households in two emerging economies, Vietnam and Thailand. Our paper contributes to the literature by studying consumer sentiment and durable spending responses to government financial support and the underlying transmission channels for these responses. We find that government support improves consumer sentiment and increases the likelihood of durable spending. Possible channels for these effects include more optimistic macroeconomic expectations and higher trust in the government’s ability to deal with the pandemic, as well as less concern about the general impact of the crisis. We also find that financial support improves individuals’ mental health and life satisfaction. Our results suggest that government financial support not only helps stimulate the economy but also enhances people’s well-being more generally.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy; Financial support of households; Consumer sentiment; Durables spending; Expectations; Government trust; COVID-19; Thailand; Vietnam
    JEL: E62 E71 D12 D83 H31
    Date: 2021–05
  8. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Vuong, Bui Nhat
    Abstract: The aim of this research is to investigate the effect of service quality on passenger loyalty as well as the mediating roles of relationship quality (perceives value, passenger trust, and satisfaction). The survey was conducted with a total of 321 passengers who have used low-cost airline service in the domestic terminal in Tan Son Nhat airport, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; then the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was estimated using the SmartPLS 3.0 program. The results indicated that service quality positively impacted passenger loyalty. Moreover, this study provided empirical evidence about the mediating roles of perceived value, airline image, passenger trust, and satisfaction. The finding also suggested that airline managers should understand the customers’ expectations and passenger loyalty regarding low-cost airlines to attract new customers as well as retain their existing customers.
    Date: 2021–05–20
  9. By: Truong Van Dan; Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy; Mac Nhu Binh
    Abstract: Climate change is a human concern, impacting not only the physical environment but also the livelihood of the people. Warnings on the probable severe negative effects of climate change on humans have been published globally and Vietnam is one of five countries that will be affected most severely by climate change and sea level rise. Therefore, climate change needs to be considered in the strategies and plans for long-term and shortterm development goals of each locality in Vietnam including Thua Thien Hue province. As a coastal province, Thua Thien Hue has always suffered heavy losses from climate change. Through data collection and analysis, we found that over time, weather conditions and climate in Thua Thien Hue showed complicated movements, abnormal changes such as droughts, and prolonged heatwaves often occurring during the dry season from May to August every year. Meanwhile, cold weather lasted longer during rainy season (October to February). Floods and typhoons have occurred with stronger intensities, and tide amplitude has changed drastically. All these have had significant impacts on agriculture and fisheries activities in the province.
    Keywords: Vietnam
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Hidetoshi Nishimura (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Michikazu Kojima (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Fusanori Iwasaki (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hendro Putra Johannes (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Ellen Putri Edita (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has raised issues with waste management. In Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, the increasing amount of medical waste during the pandemic is not in line with the availability of waste management facilities. Furthermore, the amount of plastic waste is also rising because people rely more on food delivery services. This causes a plastic waste ban roll-back in some countries. In this difficult situation, it is crucial for ASEAN countries to strengthen their waste management policies. Also, protection of all parties, including informal workers, must be considered to enforce a clean and healthy work environment.
    Date: 2020–07–02
  11. By: Chen, Dylan Siong-Yain; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of Unusual Market Activity (UMA) announcement on stock return in Malaysian market with a sample of 62 companies listed on the ACE market at Bursa Malaysia for the period of 2007-2015. This study employs event study methodology to show that there were few days in which the average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) are statistically significant. In addition, this study also further investigates the abnormal return (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for individual companies. It was found that majority of the stocks returns fell significantly 30 days after the UMA announcement. The magnitude of the fall in returns ranges from 4% to 234%. Hence, it is not advisable for investors to buy stock after UMA announcement.
    Keywords: Unusual Market Activity; Ace Market; Stock Return; Bursa Malaysia
    JEL: G14
  12. By: Hofer, Martin (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Sako, Tomas (Freelance data scientist); Martinez, Jr., Arturo (Asian Development Bank); Addawe, Mildred (Asian Development Bank); Durante, Ron Lester (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The spatial granularity of poverty statistics can have a significant impact on the efficiency of targeting resources meant to improve the living conditions of the poor. However, achieving granularity typically requires increasing the sample sizes of surveys on household income and expenditure or living standards, an option that is not always practical for government agencies that conduct these surveys. Previous studies that examined the use of innovative (geospatial) data sources such as those from high-resolution satellite imagery suggest that such method may be an alternative approach of producing granular poverty maps. This study outlines a computational framework to enhance the spatial granularity of government-published poverty estimates using a deep layer computer vision technique applied on publicly available medium-resolution satellite imagery, household surveys, and census data from the Philippines and Thailand. By doing so, the study explores a potentially more cost-effective alternative method for poverty estimation method. The results suggest that even using publicly accessible satellite imagery, in which the resolutions are not as fine as those in commercially sourced images, predictions generally aligned with the distributional structure of government-published poverty estimates, after calibration. The study further contributes to the existing literature by examining robustness of the resulting estimates to user-specified algorithmic parameters and model specifications.
    Keywords: big data; computer vision; data for development; machine learning algorithm; official statistics; poverty; SDG
    JEL: C19 D31 I32 O15
    Date: 2020–12–29
  13. By: Felipe, Jesus (Asian Development Bank); Fullwiler, Scott (University of Missouri-Kansas City); Estrada, Gemma (Asian Development Bank); Jaber, Maria Hanna (Asian Development Bank); Magadia, Mary Ann (Asian Development Bank); Patagan, Remrick (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The severe economic downturn caused by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has forced governments worldwide to increase spending while tax revenues simultaneously collapsed. Concurrent with this, central banks in several of these countries are financing a significant percent of their direct income support through direct lending or purchases of government bonds in primary and/or secondary markets. Many oppose this for their alleged negative consequences on the economy, inflation in particular. This paper describes the actual workings of what most people (including many economists) often call monetization of government debt and its major implication, namely, that it leads to printing money and, consequently, to inflation. We show that the reality is very different: once one knows how modern central banks manage monetary policy (i.e., through a corridor interest rate targeting system), and how they coordinate their daily operations with their treasuries, monetization does not occur as it is often described, and it is not nearly as dangerous as its critics argue (and not as useful as its supporters claim). The examples of the People’s Republic of China, the Philippines, Singapore, and the United States clarify this.
    Keywords: central bank; corridor system; inflation; monetization; printing money
    JEL: E42 E52 E58
    Date: 2020–12–10
  14. By: panggantara, Pang william
    Abstract: The emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic caused Indonesia’s economy to experience deflation, the group whose income is not affected prefer to save rather than spending their money, this happen with consideration that no one knows when the Covid-19 pandemic will end and when will the the situation return to normal. The pandemic has decreased people’s income and purchasing power. People saving are decreased used for consumption needs, especially for the employee that’s terminated from the the company or has been laid off, this cases resulting in and increasingly depleted source of household funds.
    Date: 2021–05–19
  15. By: Wong, Colin Koh-King; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Arip, Mohammad Affendy
    Abstract: This article adopts the augmented versions of Gravity Model to examine the effects of the signing of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on the bilateral aggregate trades. Specifically, ACFTA dummy variables are incorporated in the basic model is to estimate the direction and magnitude of the ACFTA effects. A total of 79 trading partners of ASEAN member countries plus China were examined in this article. The study finds that the Gross Domestic Product, population, natural endowment, distance and common language are the main determining factors of the bilateral trade for ASEAN member countries and its trading partners. Estimated results from this Augmented Gravity Model showed that ACFTA have increased the bilateral aggregate trades not only between intra-bloc member countries, but also between intra-bloc and extra-bloc countries. With this positive finding, ASEAN and China could consider to expand their free trade area to a broader regional perspective, to enhance economic growth and to reduce regional inequality.
    Keywords: ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), Gravity Model, Total aggregate trades
    JEL: F43 F62
    Date: 2021–01–01
  16. By: Vandenberg , Paul (Asian Development Bank); Laranjo, Jade (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the labor market outcomes of graduates of post-secondary technical and vocational education and training (TVET) in the Philippines. Based on human capital theory, our guiding assumption is that investment in education is rewarded through higher wages and a greater likelihood of being employed. Using household data for 2015–2016, the results show significantly higher wages for TVET graduates relative to those who entered the job market with a secondary school education or below. However, individuals who both trained in TVET and pursued tertiary (university) education tend to have a lower wage than those with secondary school education or below. This counterintuitive result is explained by the tendency for such dual-level individuals to complete the lowest level of TVET. Another result is that TVET graduates are more likely to be employed than both those who only studied at secondary school or below and those who studied at the tertiary level. The results are generated from a linear regression model that corrects for sample selection into employment and from the use of propensity score matching which addresses selection into TVET.
    Keywords: labor market; Philippines; skills training; TVET
    JEL: I26 J24
    Date: 2020–10–09
  17. By: Kensuke Tanaka
    Abstract: Predicting future economic trends appropriately is essential to economic policy making. Currently, the DSGE model approach is a benchmark economic forecasting technique widely employed. However, large external shocks, such as large-scale natural disasters and COVID-19, challenge current approaches to economic forecasting. Multiple approaches will be needed in this situation, including reduced-form model and indicator-based approaches. This paper discusses different forecasting approaches, by comparing forecasts during normal times and crisis periods. The Medium-term Projection Framework (MPF), used in the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India series, receives particular attention. The paper also examines challenges unique to developing Asia and large external shock periods. The measurement of potential output, difficulties in modelling the credit channel, and the incorporation of Big Data pose challenges regarding developing Asian countries, and large external shocks may force deviation from assumptions of traditional frameworks such as rational expectations. Finally, this paper points out that natural disasters will be a useful proxy for large shocks in Developing Asia. Il est essentiel de prévoir de manière appropriée les futures tendances économiques pour étayer les décisions de politique économique. Actuellement, l'approche modèle DSGE (d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique) est une technique de prévision économique de référence largement utilisée. Cependant, les chocs externes importants, tels que les catastrophes naturelles à grande échelle et le COVID-19, posent des défis dans les prévisions économiques. L'utilisation de diverses approches, en particulier celle en forme réduite et celles fondées sur des indicateurs, sera grandement utile. Ce papier examine différentes approches de prévision, en comparant les prévisions en temps normal et en période de crise. Il observe notamment le cadre de projection à moyen terme (MPF) utilisé dans les projections de la série Perspectives économiques de l'Asie du Sud-Est, la Chine et l'Inde de l’OCDE. Le papier examine ensuite les défis de la prévision qui sont uniques aux pays asiatiques en développement ou aux grandes périodes de chocs externes. La mesure des résultats potentiels, des difficultés à modéliser le canal du crédit bancaire et l'intégration du « Big Data » sont des défis pour les pays d'Asie en développement, tandis que les chocs externes importants peuvent forcer la distanciation des cadres économiques traditionnels, tels que les anticipations rationnelles. Le papier montre enfin que les catastrophes naturelles représentent un indicateur utile des chocs importants dans l'Asie en développement.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Developing Asia, DSGE model, Forecasting, large external shocks, natural disasters, time series analysis
    JEL: C53 E17 O20 O53 Q54
    Date: 2021–05–27
  18. By: Feehan, Dennis; Son, Vo Hai; Abdul-Quader, Abu
    Abstract: Researchers increasingly use *aggregate relational data* to learn about the size and distribution of survey respondents' weak-tie personal networks. Aggregate relational data are collected by asking questions about respondents' connectedness to many different groups (e.g., "How many teachers do you know?"). This approach can be powerful but, to make use of aggregate relational data, researchers must locate external information about the size of each of these groups from a census or from administrative records (e.g., the number of teachers in the population). This need for external information makes aggregate relational data difficult or impossible to collect in many settings. Here, we show that relatively simple modifications can overcome this need for external data, significantly increasing the flexibility of the method and weakening key assumptions required by the associated estimators. Our methods are appropriate for using a sample survey to study the size and distribution of weak-tie network connections. Our methods can also be used as part of the network scale-up method to estimate the size of hidden populations. We illustrate our approach with two empirical studies: a large simulation study, and original household survey data collected in Hanoi, Vietnam.
    Date: 2021–05–19
  19. By: , Michelle
    Abstract: Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have a very vital role in the development and economic growth in Indonesia. According to the Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs, in 2020, MSMEs have a total of 60% contribution to the Gross Domestic Bruto and 90% contribution to the national workforce absorption. Therefore, the recovery of MSMEs is very important for the well-being of the national economy. The Covid-19 pandemic must encourage MSMEs actors to transform their businesses if they want to survive. Business digitalization during the Covid-19 pandemic is growing faster. Therefore, the recovery of MSMEs cannot be separated from the utilization of information technology.
    Date: 2021–05–19
  20. By: Vargas, Jerrick Jan
    Abstract: Obtaining loans from Philippine banks is difficult and government support to credit was inadequate. The overall rural sector in the Philippines needs better access to credit since it could enhance their livelihood by means of expanding their agricultural activities. Farmers must also be encouraged to use high yielding inputs such as seeds, farm mechanization equipment and other harvesting and planting equipment in order to improve the quality and quantity of output. This could improve the loan repayment rates on the part of the farmers. More competition and not government subsidies to individuals or institutions is the key on having an efficient, sustainable and forward-looking rural finance sector.
    Keywords: Rural Finance
    JEL: Q14
    Date: 2021–05–01
  21. By: Stephen Broadberry
    Abstract: As a result of recent work on historical national accounting, it is now possible to establish more firmly the timing of the Great Divergence of living standards between Europe and Asia in the eighteenth century. There was a European Little Divergence as Britain and the Netherlands overtook Italy and Spain, and an Asian Little Divergence as Japan overtook China and India. The Great Divergence occurred because Japan grew more slowly than Britain and the Netherlands starting from a lower level, and because of a strong negative growth trend in Qing dynasty China. A growth accounting framework is used to assess the contributions of labour, human and physical capital, land and total factor productivity. In addition to these proximate sources, the roles of institutions and geography are examined as the ultimate sources of the divergent growth patterns.
    Keywords: Great Divergence; living standards; measurement; explanation
    JEL: N10 N30 N35 O10 O57
    Date: 2021–03–17
  22. By: Lee , Junkyu (Asian Development Bank); Rosenkranz , Peter (Asian Development Bank); Ramayandi , Arief (Asian Development Bank); Pham , Hoang (Oregon State University)
    Abstract: More than 20 years after the Asian financial crisis, the region’s continued high reliance on United States (US) dollar-denominated funding has significant implications for the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic circumstances. Given limited domestic capital market-based financing solutions, a high reliance on funding denominated in US dollars renders countries vulnerable to changing global financial and liquidity conditions. Using a dynamic panel and a vector autoregression model to assess the exchange rate as a possible transmission channel, we find that changes in bilateral US dollar exchange rates can have a significant impact on sovereign credit risk. In particular, a depreciation of the domestic currency against the US dollar leads to a widening of the sovereign bond spread. This finding suggests a significant relationship between US dollar funding exposure, US dollar liquidity conditions, and domestic financial conditions in some emerging Asian economies, and thus highlights one source of structural vulnerability. Given that the magnitude of the effects varies across countries, policy makers need to monitor closely the interplay between the exchange rates and local financial market conditions with tailored prescriptions for domestic financial resilience.
    Keywords: bond spread; emerging Asian economies; exchange rate; US dollar funding conditions
    JEL: F15 F31 F62 F65 G12 G15
    Date: 2021–03–10
  23. By: , Michelle
    Abstract: Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have a very vital role in the development and economic growth in Indonesia. According to the Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs, in 2020, MSMEs have a total of 60% contribution to the Gross Domestic Bruto and 90% contribution to the national workforce absorption. Therefore, the recovery of MSMEs is very important for the well-being of the national economy. The Covid-19 pandemic must encourage MSMEs actors to transform their businesses if they want to survive. Business digitalization during the Covid-19 pandemic is growing faster. Therefore, the recovery of MSMEs cannot be separated from the utilization of information technology
    Date: 2021–05–19
  24. By: Puttanapong , Nattapong (Thammasat University); Martinez, Jr. , Arturo (Asian Development Bank); Addawe, Mildred (Asian Development Bank); Bulan, Joseph (Asian Development Bank); Durante , Ron Lester (Asian Development Bank); Martillan , Marymell (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Poverty statistics are conventionally compiled using data from household income and expenditure survey or living standards survey. This study examines an alternative approach in estimating poverty by investigating whether readily available geospatial data can accurately predict the spatial distribution of poverty in Thailand. In particular, geospatial data examined in this study include night light intensity, land cover, vegetation index, land surface temperature, built-up areas, and points of interest. The study also compares the predictive performance of various econometric and machine learning methods such as generalized least squares, neural network, random forest, and support vector regression. Results suggest that intensity of night lights and other variables that approximate population density are highly associated with the proportion of an area’s population who are living in poverty. The random forest technique yielded the highest level of prediction accuracy among the methods considered in this study, perhaps due to its capability to fit complex association structures even with small and medium-sized datasets. Moving forward, additional studies are needed to investigate whether the relationships observed here remain stable over time, and therefore, may be used to approximate the prevalence of poverty for years when household surveys on income and expenditures are not conducted, but data on geospatial correlates of poverty are available.
    Keywords: big data; computer vision; data for development; machine learning algorithm; multidimensional poverty; official statistics; poverty; SDG; Thailand
    JEL: C19 D31 I32 O15
    Date: 2020–12–29
  25. By: Wong, Colin Koh King; Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Arip, Mohammad Affendy
    Abstract: This paper seeks to explore the effects of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint adoption since 20 November 2007 on the bilateral manufacturing trade between the ASEAN member countries and their trading partners. Ten ASEAN member countries and their 39 trading partners are considered in this study. A panel with model with AEC dummy variables is estimated on a set of panel data over the sample period of 1995 to 2014. Overall, it is found that AEC has created substantial trade creation effects for the exports of tobacco & manufactured tobacco substitutes, and limestone materials for manufacture of lime. On the other hand, there are substantial trade diversion effects for the exports of the fur-skins & artificial fur manufactures, manufactures of plaiting material & basketwork, miscellaneous manufactured articles, as well as the machines & apparatus.
    Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), ASEAN, Intra-Trade, Manufacturing Products
    JEL: F4
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Lapid , Ana Kristel (Asian Development Bank); Mercado, Jr. , Rogelio (Asian Development Bank); Rosenkranz, Peter (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Cross-border bank positions in Asia and the Pacific remain highly concentrated to few counterparties, exposing the region to financial risks and policy spillovers. Consequently, assessing the determinants and impacts of the region’s cross-border banking concentration is relevant to the design of appropriate policies for promoting financial development and safeguarding financial stability. To this end, we construct cross-border bank concentration measures for 47 economies in Asia and the Pacific from 2000 to 2019. The results show that higher openness of capital account and trade, as well as better per capita income, are significantly associated with lower cross-border bank concentration. Moreover, elevated cross-border bank concentration tends to lower domestic credit growth and nonperforming loans. We find no impact on bank profitability for the region.
    Keywords: Asia and the Pacific; bank profitability; credit growth; cross-border bank concentration; cross-border bank exposures; nonperforming loans
    JEL: E44 F36 G21 O16
    Date: 2021–05–06
  27. By: Kang , Jong Woo (Asian Development Bank); Wang, Tengfei (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Ramizo, Dorothea (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The business-to-consumer (B2C) online commerce landscape is changing rapidly, supported by the technological innovation. However, its diffusion remains concentrated in developed and large economies and is creating a digital divide that excludes small and medium-sized enterprises and people with limited means. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic exposed an urgent need to close the divide, both within and across countries. This paper explores disparities in B2C online commerce revenues among selected Asian economies by investigating the role of technology adoption in B2C sales online. Using proprietary panel data to ensure comparability of B2C online commerce across countries and years, the study investigates empirically the possible drivers of B2C online commerce growth. This paper yields important insights for policy makers and businesses and provides evidence that internet access and speed, online security, and financial inclusiveness matter in facilitating internet retail sales. Governments should consider these as important issues in building an enabling environment that will help B2C online commerce adapt to the post COVID-19 world and ensure that innovations create opportunities for all.
    Keywords: broadband; e-commerce; financial inclusion; technology
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2021–02–09
  28. By: Mercer-Blackman , Valerie (World Bank); Camingue-Romance, Shiela (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: How sensitive is inward foreign direct investment (FDI) from the United States (US) to developing Asia to corporate tax rates? This is a relevant question given the sweeping US tax bill effective in 2018, which provided incentives for US corporations abroad to repatriate profits. Using panel data at the country and sector level, we find that the effects are quite different across sectors, and that controlling for other factors such as market size, costs, openness, and the business environment, the corporate income tax rate differential is generally not statistically significant, including for global value chain-related FDI to developing Asia. It does have a small effect on service sectors such as financial intermediation and business services where sunk costs are small.
    Keywords: corporate tax; FDI; fiscal policy; foreign investment; Tax and Jobs Act; sectors
    JEL: F21 H25 H30
    Date: 2020–12–21
  29. By: Broadberry, Stephen N
    Abstract: Recent work in historical national accounting is surveyed, focusing on the Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence. Eighteenth century Britain was the first economy to make the transition to modern economic growth, but this breakthrough built on earlier episodes of per capita income growth with declining population in the fourteenth and seventeenth centuries. Between these two episodes, the economy remained on a plateau rather than shrinking back to Malthusian subsistence as population recovered. The crude idea of a modernising Europe forging ahead of a stagnating Asia needs to be modified to take account of regional variation within both continents. The Great Divergence can be dated to the eighteenth century when the leading European region forged ahead of the leading Chinese region. This can also be seen as the culmination of a dynamic process beginning in the fourteenth century, with a reduction in the frequency and rate of shrinking.
    Date: 2020–08
  30. By: Sune Karlsson; Stepan Mazur; Hoang Nguyen
    Abstract: With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed and heavy tailed. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by extending a vector autoregression (VAR) model to account for a more realistic assumption of the multivariate distribution of the macroeconomic variables. We propose a general class of generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t distribution with stochastic volatility for the error term in the VAR model that allows us to take into account skewness and heavy tails. Tools for Bayesian inference and model selection using a Gibbs sampler are provided. In an empirical study, we present evidence of skewness and heavy tails for monthly macroeconomic variables. The analysis also gives a clear message that skewness should be taken into account for better predictions during recessions and crises.
    Date: 2021–05
  31. By: Cortes, Patricia (Boston University); Pan, Jessica (National University of Singapore); Pilossoph, Laura (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Zafar, Basit (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: To understand gender differences in the job search process, we collect rich information on job offers and acceptances from past and current undergraduates of Boston University's Questrom School of Business. We document two novel empirical facts: (1) there is a clear gender difference in the timing of job offer acceptance, with women accepting jobs substantially earlier than men, and (2) the gender earnings gap in accepted offers narrows in favor of women over the course of the job search period. Using survey data on risk preferences and beliefs about expected future earnings, we present empirical evidence that the patterns in job search can be partly explained by the higher levels of risk aversion displayed by women and the higher levels of overoptimism (and slower belief updating) displayed by men. We develop a job search model that incorporates these gender differences in risk aversion and (over)optimism about prospective offers. Our counterfactual exercises show that simple policies such as eliminating "exploding offers" by allowing students to hold onto offers for an additional month, or providing them with accurate information about the labor market, can reduce the gender gap significantly.
    Keywords: gender, job search behavior, risk aversion, overconfidence
    JEL: D83 D91 J64
    Date: 2021–05
  32. By: Julien Martin (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal); Isabelle Mejean (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Inés Picard (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoît Schmutz (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In this note, we use China's ban of plastic waste imports in 2017 as a natural experiment of a sudden drop in the world demand for plastic waste. We study how French exporters have adjusted, both in terms of quantities exported, destinations, and prices. After the ban, exports to other Asian countries increased sharply, but this redirection appears to be short-lived, unlike redirection towards other EU countries. In addition, there is suggestive evidence of a polarization of the quality of plastic waste exports between destinations. In light of our findings, we discuss the possible impact of new European regulations that will drastically reduce European exports of plastic waste.
    Date: 2021–04
  33. By: Felipe, Jesus (Asian Development Bank); Fullwiler, Scott (University of Missouri-Kansas City); Bajaro, Donna Faye (Asian Development Bank); Yusoph, Al-Habbyel (University of the Philippines); Askin, Simon Alec (University of the Philippines); Cruz, Martin Alexander (University of the Philippines)
    Abstract: We use the information compiled as of 15 June 2020 by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the ADB COVID-19 Policy Database to analyze the measures taken by its 68 members, plus the European Central Bank, and the European Union, to combat the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Measures associated with monetary policy amount to $14.9 trillion ($1.4 trillion by ADB’s developing members), while the measures associated with fiscal policy amount to $7.1 trillion ($1.5 trillion by ADB’s developing members). We discuss the specifics of five countries—identifying similarities and differences. Analysis shows that some countries implemented actions which do not translate easily into monetary amounts for reporting. We show that the total package per capita is directly related to gross domestic product per capita with a high elasticity of 1.61; and so is the package on government support to income and revenue (a subset of the total package), with an elasticity of 1.49. We develop a series of models to understand why rich economies spend significantly more per capita. Results indicate that the package per capita is positively related to the COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population as of 15 June 2020, population of at least 65 years old as percent of total population, and wage and salaried workers as percent of total employment; and inversely related to self-employed as percent of total employment, and vulnerable employment as percent of total employment. We use this information to compare actual to expected packages.
    Keywords: ADB COVID-19 Policy Database; COVID-19
    JEL: A10 C82
    Date: 2020–12–10
  34. By: Consing III, Rafael Martin M. (Asian Development Bank); Barsabal, Michael John M. (Asian Development Bank); Alvarez, Julian Thomas B. (Asian Development Bank); Mariasingham , Mahinthan J. (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive discussion on different, interconnected methods of using the system of national accounts to measure the relevance of a country’s wellness sector to its overall economy. Procedures are discussed for using input–output analysis to derive the production and employment linkages between wellness and nonwellness sectors. We also discuss procedures for using the hypothetical extraction method to derive and decompose the production and employment losses that may arise when a country’s wellness sector is removed from the economy. These procedures are then used to provide estimates for ten countries in developing Asia across two time periods which together provide a proxy for the region (Asia-10), along with a discussion on how these wellness economies have grown and how each one's labor productivity and wellness sector structure have evolved between the two periods.
    Keywords: economy; employment; input–output; national accounts; wellness
    JEL: C67 D57 E01 I39 R15
    Date: 2020–12–29
  35. By: Chen , Liming (Asian Development Bank); Raitzer, David (Asian Development Bank); Hasan, Rana (Asian Development Bank); Lavado, Rouselle (Asian Development Bank); Velarde , Orlee (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: We use cross-country panel data to examine the effects of a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions used by governments to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We find that while lockdown measures lead to reductions in disease transmission rates as captured by the reproduction number, R_t, gathering bans appear to be more effective than workplace and school closures, both of which are associated with large declines in gross domestic product. Further, our estimates suggest that stay-at-home orders are less effective in countries with larger family size and in developing economies. We also find that incentives are very important, as efforts at ramping up testing and tracing COVID-19 cases are more effective in controlling the spread of disease in countries with greater coverage of paid sick leave benefits. As future waves of the disease emerge, the use of more targeted and better incentivized measures can help keep the epidemic controlled at lower economic cost.
    Keywords: COVID-19; cross-country data; economic impact; nonpharmaceutical interventions
    JEL: I10 I18 O40
    Date: 2020–12–04
  36. By: Fauziah Zen (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Fukunari Kimura (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Managing a novel but highly contagious virus that rapidly evolved into a pandemic is the hardest job faced by world leaders in recent years. At first, most countries did not recognise the magnitude of the catastrophe created by coronavirus disease (COVID-19), so responses differed widely. Since the world was last hit by a pandemic more than 100 years ago, current world leaders were inexperienced in managing such a calamity. Indeed, the whole modern system – driven by technology, creativity, wealth, and interconnected people – appears to be unprepared. COVID-19 has disrupted almost all aspects of our lives. Even in the health sector, the almost exclusive focus on the pandemic has affected non-COVID-19 patients. In fragile and conflict-affected areas, disruptions in assistance and support have affected millions of people in vulnerable groups. In other areas, the world has paused temporarily.
    Date: 2020–06–24
  37. By: Kok Fong See (Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia); Shawna Grosskopf (Oregon State University, United States); Vivian Valdmanis (Western Michigan University, United States); Valentin Zelenyuk (School of Economics and Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (CEPA) at The University of Queensland, Australia)
    Abstract: Not only does healthcare play a key role in a country’s economy, but it is also one of the fastest-growing sectors for most countries, resulting in rising expenditures. In turn, efficiency and productivity analyses of the healthcare industry have attracted attention from a wide variety of interested parties, including academics, hospital administrators, and policy makers. As a result, a very large number of studies of efficiency and productivity in the healthcare industry have appeared over the past three decades in a variety of outlets. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive and systematic review of these studies with the aid of modern machine technology learning methods for bibliometric analysis. This approach facilitated our identification and analysis and allowed us to reveal patterns and clusters in the data from 477 efficiency and productivity articles associated with the healthcare industry from 1983 to 2019, produced by nearly 1000 authors and published in a multitude of academic journals. Leveraging on such ‘biblioanalytics’, combined with our own understanding of the field, we then highlight the trends and possible future of efficiency and productivity studies in healthcare.
    Date: 2021–05

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