|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Fritz, Manuela |
| Abstract: | Increasing ambient temperatures will severely affect human health in the decades to come and will exacerbate a variety of chronic health conditions. In this paper, I examine the temperaturemorbidity relationship in the tropical climate environment of Indonesia with a focus on chronic, non-communicable diseases, namely diabetes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Drawing on detailed individual level data from the Indonesian national health insurance scheme JKN and linking it with meteorological data on daily temperature realizations on a fine spatial level, I estimate the effect of high ambient temperatures on the daily number of primary health care visits. Exploiting the panel structure of the data and using a distributed lag model, I find that all-cause, diabetes and cardiovascular disease morbidity substantially increase at days with high mean temperatures. Specifically, on a day with a mean temperature above 29.5êC, the daily visits for diabetes and cardiovascular diseases increase by 29% and 19%, respectively, and these increases are permanent and not offset by visit displacement. Contrarily, I do not find any effects on respiratory disease morbidity. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that elderly and women suffer more severely from high temperatures. Back-of-the-envelope cost calculations indicate a substantial financial burden for the Indonesian health care system due to increasing temperatures. |
| Keywords: | Health,Non-Communicable Diseases,Temperature,Climate Change,Indonesia |
| JEL: | I10 I13 I18 Q50 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:upadvr:v8421&r= |
| By: | Sihaloho, Estro Dariatno |
| Abstract: | Merokok dapat menjadi salah satu media yang mempercepat penularan COVID-19, bahkan merokok meningkatkan resiko keparahan dan kematian pada saat tertular COVID-19. Penelitian yang dilakukan Komite Nasional Pengendalian Tembakau dan FK Universitas Indonesia menunjukkan adanya kecenderungan peningkatan penggunaan rokok di masa pandemi COVID-19. Data perokok dan COVID-19 per provinsi di Indonesia menunjukkan adanya peluang tingginya jumlah perokok akan diikuti dengan tingginya kasus COVID-19. Jika dibandingkan dengan beberapa Negara lain di Asia Tenggara, Indonesia memiliki prevalensi perokok tertinggi diikuti dengan jumlah kasus COVID-19 tertinggi. Potensi kerugian ekonomi akibat tembakau di Indonesia adalah sebesar 531 Triliun Rupiah atau 3.6 kali lebih besar dibandingkan realisasi penerimaan cukai hasil tembakau sebesar 147.7 triliun di tahun 2017. Dengan menggunakan data SUSENAS 2019, hasil penelitian FK Universitas Indonesia, dan hasil penelitian IAKMI diperoleh potensi keuntungan ekonomi dari pengendalian konsumsi rokok dari 11.4 Triliun Rupiah hingga 34.2 Triliun Rupiah. |
| Date: | 2021–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:47bfw&r= |
| By: | Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has severely affected East and Southeast Asian economies, especially by disrupting the flow of goods and services in the region’s global value chains (GVCs). Since a similar pandemic is likely to happen in the future, we must learn from the experience, make efforts to build new economic and social systems, and invent new methods of doing business, economic governance, and regulation to keep adverse pandemic impacts to a minimum. It is, therefore, important for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS) and Dialogue Partners to strengthen economic integration by sustaining seamless connectivity and opening up the trade and investment regime. The adoption of the technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0) – such as artificial intelligence, IoT, automation, and robotics – gives manufacturing firms a better chance of rapidly increasing production when the economy recovers |
| Date: | 2020–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2020-01&r= |
| By: | Anirudh Shingal (S.P. Jain Institute of Management & Research, Mumbai and European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | Given the importance of services for economic activity in general and the salience of reducing service link costs for overcoming the economic and health challenges emanating from COVID-19, we examine the implications of the pandemic for services trade in the original group of ASEAN+6 countries that began negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement. Our analysis reveals that with the exception of the Philippines and Viet Nam for services exports, and Cambodia and India for services imports, up to half of total services trade for all other sample countries could be adversely affected by the pandemic. In the absence of bilateral services trade data for 2020, we proxy the impact of COVID-19 on services trade using bilateral data on announced greenfield investment in services sectors from fDi Markets. Structural gravity estimates suggest that a 1% increase in COVID-19-related deaths in the source country may have reduced ASEAN+6 bilateral greenfield investment by US$0.15 million in 2020 relative to the corresponding value in 2019. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, services trade, ASEAN, RCEP, STRI, gravity, greenfield investment |
| JEL: | F1 F15 F23 |
| Date: | 2021–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-02&r= |
| By: | Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) |
| Abstract: | Key Messages; (i) The spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the resulting reduction in demand for products and services will likely cut total annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but this will be temporary. While public health and economic rescue packages dominate the headlines, climate action is in danger of suffering a setback.(ii) Low oil prices could make clean energy sources, such as renewables, less competitive and disincentivise the transition to clean energy. (iii) Ongoing behavioural changes, such as working from home, could alter energy consumption patterns after the pandemic and facilitate a low-carbon future. (iv) Energy prices should be made affordable during the faltering economic recovery, as they affect industrial competitiveness.(v) The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should seize new investment opportunities with stimulus packages for enhancing regional energy security, resilience, and climate change objectives (e.g. expanding the electricity network and increasing oil stockpiling). |
| Date: | 2020–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2020-02&r= |
| By: | Le, Hoang Duc; Viet, Nguyen Quang; Anh, Nguyen Huaong |
| Abstract: | This study was implemented with the goal of testing the validity of trade-off theory and pecking order theory in determining the capital structure in 50 listed real estate companies in Vietnam. The result of this study shows that the pecking order theory is the more approriate and should be applied for the listed real estate companies in Vietnam, and be the informative document for those firms to take into account the relevant theory to adjust their own capital structure, so that they can raise their own competitiveness and continue the development of the business |
| Date: | 2021–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hc6ne&r= |
| By: | Lurong Chen (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Lydia Ruddy (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | This brief proposes a policy framework for digital connectivity to support the development of e-commerce. Using this analytical framework for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies, the brief suggests improving digital connectivity as a policy priority for ASEAN digital transformation. This calls for a region-wide institutional effort on:(i) digital related infrastructure in both the physical world and cyberspace,(ii) rules and regulations to ensure a dynamic and competitive online marketplace,(iii) connectivity-derived services to generate more value added, and (iv) collaboration on the governance of the digital economy. |
| Date: | 2020–07–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2020-07&r= |
| By: | Wrobel, Ralph |
| Abstract: | Transformation to some market approaches in North Korea is of highest importance for more economic cooperation on the Korean peninsula. Kim Jong-uns's Byungjin policy, a new ideological approach announced in 2011, gave some hope for such reforms. At least, basic economic reforms like in China or Vietnam in the 1980s would be helpful. Both countries started with reforms in the agricultural sector and management reforms in the industry. Additionally, they opened up their countries to the capitalist world by Special Economic Zones (SEZs). Especially since introduction of Byungjin Policy by Kim Jong-un North Korea followed these reform steps obviously. But while reforms in agriculture and management of State-Owned Enterprises are quite similar to China or Vietnam a lack of institutionalization must be stated. As a result, only informal markets ("jangmadang") evolved in North Korea. Also, a new group of entrepreneurs ("donju") - people investing money without any legal security - came into existence. Additionally, even though SEZs have been established in North Korea a real opening to foreign investors and clients cannot be observed. There are two main reasons for this: First, ideology is much more crucial for the North Korean regime than for the communist parties in China or Vietnam. Ideological approaches like Juche or Songun still have a religious significance and thereby the function to stabilize the regime. Also, UN sanctions hinder more foreign trade and investment. Therefore, Kim Jong-un is trapped between short-term ideology-based regime stability and nuclear armament on the one hand and economic reforms bringing some regime stability in the long term. |
| Keywords: | North Korea,Economic Reforms,informal institutions,Juche ideology,Byungjin ideology |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:20215&r= |
| By: | Fukunari Kimura (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Some Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS) are still fully engaged in emergency responses to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Human life is of the utmost importance and must be prioritised over other issues. It is crucial to keep the pandemic curve within the capacity of healthcare systems – even if the immediate pain from social distancing is huge. ERIA hopes that all AMS and countries in the rest of the world overcome this difficult challenge soon. At this point, we must start considering the next stage. This policy brief will talk about the exit strategies for AMS after successfully taming the spread of the disease. |
| Date: | 2020–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2020-03&r= |
| By: | Mustaqiem, Yogie Abrar; Bastaman, Aam; Bross, Noverdi |
| Abstract: | Marketing is one of the main activities by entrepreneurs to maintain the viability of their business to grow and earn a profit. In addition, marketing knowledge is also very useful so that companies can compete and survive in the competition. This study aims to examine the effect of Value Creation and Excellent Service on Competitive Advantage, where Brand Equity and Brand Loyalty are the mediating variables. This research uses a descriptive quantitative approach. The population in this study were Bukalapak e-commerce users who live in the Jakarta and surrounding areas, and used a sample of 220 respondents. The method of analysis in this study uses Partial Least Square (PLS). The results of this study indicate that Value Creation has an effect on Brand Equity, Value Creation has an effect on Brand Loyalty, Excellent Service has an effect on Brand Equity, Excellent Service has an effect on Brand Loyalty, Brand Equity has an effect on Competitive Advantage, Brand Loyalty effects on Competitive Advantage, Value Creation. has no effect on Competitive Advantage, Excellent Service affects Competitive Advantage, Value Creation affects Competitive Advantage mediated by Brand Equity, Value Creation has no effect on Competitive Advantage mediated by Brand Loyalty, Excellent Service has an effect on Competitive Advantage mediated by Brand Equity, Excellent Service has an effect on Competitive Advantage Mediated Brand Loyalty. |
| Date: | 2021–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4wkvm&r= |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Early 2021, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade released for public discussion the draft Power Development Plan VIII describing how the country will produce its electricity for the next ten years. Focused on developing gas-fired power, the draft reuses a renewable energy development strategy elaborated six years ago. That strategy was ambitious then but is now outdated by an ongoing solar and wind boom. Obsolete before publication, the draft fails to plan the ongoing energy transition which is all about PV, wind, storage, transport electrification, and increasing climate policy goals. To remain relevant in the energy transition era, quinquennial planning has to become more agile. |
| Keywords: | Planning,Energy Transition,Vietnam |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-03197064&r= |
| By: | Tamat Sarmidi (Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia); Norlin Khalid (Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia); Muhamad Rias K. V. Zainuddin (Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Development, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu); Sufian Jusoh (Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) |
| Abstract: | This study simulates the sector impacts of demand-side perturbations on air transport sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on ASEAN members plus Australia, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. This study involves (i) the generation of a multiregional input–output table from the latest Global Trade Analysis Project data, (ii) a network analysis to determine the importance of the air transport industry in each country, (iii) multiplier and linkages analyses, (iv) determinations of sector impacts from demand-side perturbations on air transport sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and (v) simulation of the effect of fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the pandemic’s impact. This study demonstrates that the aviation industry is a key sector in domestic and regional economic activities, and the reduction in air transport consumer demand due to the pandemic is estimated to cause gross domestic product (GDP) reductions from 0.4% to 2.1%. Government intervention, through fiscal and monetary policies, has, however, mitigated severe impact, moderating GDP and value-added losses. Thus, a viable policy prescription for the aviation industry is of utmost importance. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, inoperability, multiregional input-output, sector impact |
| JEL: | D57 L93 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-01&r= |
| By: | Ramizo, Godofredo Jr |
| Abstract: | Governments around the world are launching projects that embed artificial intelligence (AI) in the delivery of public services. How can government officials navigate the complexities of AI projects and deliver successful outcomes? Using a review of the existing literature and interviews with senior government officials from Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore who have worked on Smart City and similar AI-driven projects, this paper demonstrates the diversity of government AI projects and identifies practical lessons that help safeguard public interest. I make two contributions. First, I show that we can classify government AI projects based on their level of importance to government functions and the level of organisational resources available to them. These two dimensions result in four types of AI projects, each with its own risks and appropriate strategies. Second, I propose five general lessons for government AI projects in any field, and outline specific measures appropriate to each of the aforementioned types of AI projects. |
| Date: | 2021–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ka5vd&r= |
| By: | Mahayosnand, Ponn P; Essa, Saman; Sabra, ZM |
| Abstract: | Similar to how physicians practice evidence-based medicine to treat individual patients, policymakers should govern the public's health according to evidence-based data. Initiated by the World Health Organization's directive to make COVID-19 research open and freely accessible, (1,2) multidisciplinary studies are still published daily. Collectively, policymakers worldwide have not used available data effectively to make noteworthy reductions in the pandemic that is now over a year old. This brief commentary introduces a policy problem, then shares 3 categories of successful case studies as possible solutions: [1] Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC): Vietnam and Iran, (3,4) [2] public health practitioners: social workers in Africa and pharmacists in Zambia, (5,6) and [3] public health programs: a smoking cessation program and inmate health program. (7,8) Examples from LMIC were selected to demonstrate practical, cost-effective and duplicable methods. A collaborative multidisciplinary approach with community health partners is also proposed. (2,9) |
| Date: | 2021–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5yp6h&r= |
| By: | Heß, Alexander; Hindermann, Christoph Michael |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road Initiative is an unparalleled China-initiated international infrastructure project. Since its launch, international trade has already increased in the participating countries - a trend that is only there to stay. However, this development is not seen only in a positive light, and to date it is unclear whether it will exclusively benefit the participating countries in the long term or whether it will drag them into debt. In this piece, we investigate possible trade effects that go beyond the proclaimed monetary ones. We check if these projected increases of trade (trade volume and trade freedom) affect mean levels of subjective well-being (SWB) in Asian countries. Applying a fixed effects model, we find no evidence that sheer trade volume nor trade freedom directly affect mean levels of SWB in Asian countries. However, we find measures of wealth (GDP per capita, Human Development Index [HDI]) as well as the unemployment rate to affect SWB at the country level. This may indicate an indirect effect of trade on SWB that is channeled by GDP. Nonetheless, there could be a link between trade and SWB, as it may take some time for the effects/changes of trade to trickle down to SWB. Other possibilities are discussed in detail. |
| Keywords: | Trade volume,freedom of trade,happiness,subjective well-being |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:20219&r= |
| By: | Aloysius Gunadi Brata (MINDSET Institute); Eusebius Pantja Pramudya (MINDSET Institute); Esther Sri Astuti (Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF)); Heffi Christya Rahayu (MINDSET Institute); Heronimus Heron (MINDSET Institute) |
| Abstract: | This study examines if COVID-19 has worsened socio-economic inequalities across provinces in Indonesia, and if it has affected the spatial disparity in provincial-level socio-economic indicators. Secondary provincial-level data are used from BPS for March 2015 to March 2020. Results indicate that provinces with more COVID-19 cases tend to have increased inequality in urban areas, but inequality in rural areas decreases, as measured by the Gini Index. Also, provinces with many COVID-19 cases tend to have a decrease in their poverty headcount ratios. Thus, COVID-19 may have various implications on the spatial inequality of the Gini Index and poverty headcount ratio. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, inequality, poverty, spatial |
| JEL: | I14 I30 R10 |
| Date: | 2021–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-04&r= |
| By: | Archanun Kohpaiboon; Juthathip Jongwanich (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global production sharing in ASEAN Member States. Product-level analysis – on hard disk drives, air conditioners, microwaves, televisions, washing machines, and automotive parts – is undertaken to examine trade patterns between January 2019 and October/November 2020. The key finding suggests that the pandemic caused parts shortages, but this effect has been short-lived. There is no strong evidence that multi-national enterprises have altered their supply chains or means of sourcing parts and components in response to the pandemic. There is some indication that multi-national enterprises are moving away from China, but whether this reflects a ‘COVID-19 effect’ or the trade war between the United States and China is not clear. COVID-19, a once-in-a-century event, may not alone be a compelling reason to restructure supply chain management relating to global production sharing, which has been a structural phenomenon driving economic globalisation. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, global production sharing, ASEAN |
| JEL: | F14 F20 |
| Date: | 2021–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-03&r= |
| By: | Peñalba, Ericson H. |
| Abstract: | The vulnerability of the Philippines to climate change and variability has been highlighted by its exposure to severe weather-related conditions. Farmers are particularly vulnerable to such adverse effects given their limited adaptive capacity. In this regard, this study examines the local adaptation experiences and practices of farmers in a second-class farming municipality. It is then based on the assumption that a lay understanding of how farmers perceive and adapt to climate change can be used to provide implications for enhancing their adaptive capacity. Using a combination of qualitative data from key informant interviews and focus group discussion and secondary data from government agencies, this paper reveals that farmers perceive serious health and livelihood risks despite having limited knowledge of how climate change occurs. They recognize that changes in climate conditions have caused considerable effects to temperature and rainfall which, in turn, have posed serious challenge to water supply. Their farming activities are also at risk from interrelated impacts such as damage to crops, pest infestation, and decrease in rice yield. Hence, they consistently employ common adaptation measures as direct responses to climate variability such as the planting of new crop varieties, use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, use of technology in farming, and diversification of household income. However, the lack of financial resources hinders them from utilizing new adaptation techniques and technologies, which they perceive to be more appropriate and beneficial. These results suggest a more conscious effort of transforming coping strategies to short-term climate variability into adaptation measures to long-term climate changes. |
| Date: | 2019–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s8ahz&r= |
| By: | Masela, Anthon |
| Abstract: | Peranan perikanan dalam pembangunan ekonomi cukup besar, baik sebagai penghasil bahan pangan sumber protein maupun sebagai penghasil devisa negara. Salah satu daerah di Indonesia yang memiliki potensi sumberdaya kelautan dan perikanan yang besar adalah Provinsi Maluku. Maluku adalah provinsi kepulauan dengan luas wilayah 712.479,69 km², terdiri dari 92,4 % luas perairan laut atau sebesar 658.294,69 km² dibandingkan luas daratan yang hanya 7,6 % (54.185 km²). Kondisi perairan tersebut diperkaya oleh potensi sumberdaya perikanan sebanyak 1.640.160 ton/tahun. Potensi sumberdaya hayati perikanan dimaksud terdiri dari pelagis, demersal, dan biota laut lainnya yang dapat dimanfaatkan secara optimal. (Dinas Perikanan dan Kelautan Provinsi Maluku,2007). HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) adalah suatu sistem kontrol dalam upaya pencegahan terjadinya masalah yang didasarkan atas identifikasi titik-titik kritis di dalam tahap penanganan dan proses produksi. HACCP merupakan salah satu bentuk manajemen resiko yang dikembangkan untuk menjamin keamanan pangan dengan pendekatan pencegahan (preventive) yang dianggap dapat memberikan jaminan dalam menghasilkan makanan yang aman bagi konsumen. Penelitian ini bersifat deskriptif yaitu mengadakan deskripsi untuk memberikan gambaran yang jelas tentang kondisi nyata subyek penelitian. dan Metode yang digunakan dalam Penelitian ini adalah, Analisis deskriptif kualitatif, yakni Melihat Layout Pabrik dan menghitung tingkat kesediaan produk jadi, Menganalisis Alur Produksi untuk Melihat CCP (titik titik critis), Metode observasi yakni pengamatan langsung di lapangan, degan pengambilan sample adalah Purposive sampling. Hasil identifikasi titik kritis (CCP) berdasarkan hasil Pengamatan dan Penentuan CCP Mengunakan Metode decision tree diketahui bahwa tahap pembekuan ,dan Penyimpanan, dinyatakan sebagai titik kritis (CCP). Dalam pemantauan/monitoring CCP Pada PT. Samudara Sakti Sepakat telah menerapkan prosedur, pengendalian titik titik kritis dengan ciri-ciri khusus dan penanganan tersendiri. Faktor utama yang menjadi pertimbangan dalam penentuan lokasi pabrik (plant location) adalah lokasi bahan baku, lokasi pasar, tenaga kerja dan tingkat upah serta air dan limbah industri yang dibuang. Jenis tata letak pabrik (plant layout) yang terdapat pada perusahaan tersebut merupakan produk layout yakni berdasarkan aliran produksi, dikarenakan berbagai faktor, seperti jenis produk yang dibuat hanya satu macam (ikan utuh), diproduksi dalam jumlah besar dan untuk jangka waktu yang relatif singkat, jenis mesin yang digunakan ditujukan untuk komponen yang serupa, serta jenis mesin bersifat special purpose machine, yakni hanya ditujukan untuk fungsi tertentu saja. Mesin-mesin yang digunakan khususnya untuk memproduksi ikan beku bersifat fixed path machine, dan proses produksi bersifat continue process (terjadi terus menerus Kata Kunci: Penentuan HACCP |
| Date: | 2020–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5vgbc&r= |
| By: | Alberto Posso (Centre for International Development, RMIT University) |
| Abstract: | Debates on resilience to economic shocks in the ASEAN region focus on what policymakers can do to mitigate negative impacts associated with financial-economic crises. The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that the region is also vulnerable to health-economic crises. This study applies a difference-in-difference strategy to data from the 2003 SARS epidemic to shed light on how a global pandemic can affect labour supply and remittances in ASEAN economies. Findings suggest that even a relatively short-lived epidemic can have long-lasting effects on labour supply. |
| Keywords: | SARS, ASEAN, labour supply; remittances |
| JEL: | O11 J21 F24 |
| Date: | 2021–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-06&r= |
| By: | Patrice Ollivaud |
| Abstract: | Favourable demographics has boosted Indonesia’s economic growth in recent decades, but its contribution will wane over time. Skills and competences will therefore become increasingly important to raise living standards. Educational attainment has improved considerably, but the quality of education remains disappointing. At the same time, technological changes, new organisational business models and evolving worker preferences make upskilling and reskilling increasingly important. This warrants continuous investment in improving education and lifelong training, in terms of both quality and quantity, with an enhanced role for social partners. Tackling existing and rising skill shortages requires more participation from women, older adults, internal migrants, disadvantaged groups, and foreign workers. Expanding access to early childhood education would provide all children with better opportunities and bring significant benefits. Reducing informality is key to encouraging investment in skills. The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted workers’ insufficient protection against shocks, underlining the need for unemployment insurance. It is also an opportunity to boost digitalisation and innovate with smart practices. School closures are already penalising learning outcomes and will reduce future earnings. |
| Keywords: | education, Indonesia, informal jobs, labour market, skills |
| JEL: | I25 J21 J24 J30 J46 |
| Date: | 2021–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1670-en&r= |
| By: | Thuy Do (UM - Université de Montpellier, Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Frédéric Le Roy (UM - Université de Montpellier, Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Thuy Seran (UM - Université de Montpellier, Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School) |
| Abstract: | This empirical research investigates the sharing and protecting knowledge mechanism used by global companies while collaborating with a local partner in IT Services sector in an emerging economy. The results reveal the combination and effectiveness of knowledge protection mechanisms used by the global firms when they cooperate with the local firm in the emerging economy. This research contributes, first, to literature on collaboration between global and local firms on emerging economy markets by showing 1) that global companies are able to share and protect their knowledge when they collaborate with local firms, and 2) that global companies and local firms are able to learn from the cooperative project to increase their innovation capabilities. The research contributes, second, to coopetition literature by showing that managing the coopetitive dilemma between sharing and protecting knowledge is also a concern for companies cooperating with potential competitors. |
| Keywords: | knowledge sharing,knowledge protection,emerging markets,global firms,local firms |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03215229&r= |
| By: | Remy Levin (University of Connecticut); Daniela Vidart (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | How do lifetime experiences of macroeconomic risk shape attitudes towards risk? We study this question theoretically and empirically for individuals in developing countries. We build a Bayesian model of choice in which agents’ risk attitude adapts to their evolving beliefs about background risk. Our model predicts that risk aversion will increase monotonically in the variance of the background risk, and will decrease convexly in the mean. We test the model by linking longitudinal surveys from Indonesia and Mexico, containing elicited measures of risk aversion for the same subjects years apart, with state-level real GDP growth time series capturing their lifetime macroeconomic experiences. In both countries measured risk aversion significantly increases in experienced growth volatility and significantly decreases in experienced mean growth. The effect of volatility is 0.9-4.3 times the effect of the mean, indicating that experiences of volatility are first-order drivers of risk attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Risk attitudes, experience effects, macroeconomic volatility, development |
| JEL: | D14 D81 D83 E32 G11 O11 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2021-09&r= |
| By: | Giulia Ajmone Marsan; Araba Sey (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | This policy brief provides evidence of the persistent digital gender divide across ASEAN and explains how it is of key importance to close this divide in order to ‘build back better’ based on more inclusive digital economies during the post pandemic economic recovery. This calls for a region-wide policy strategy and action plan to maximise access to skills, entrepreneurship, and leadership positions for girls and women in the digital economy across ASEAN. This policy brief is based on the discussion paper ‘Gender Digital Equality Across ASEAN’ prepared by Dr Araba Sey for ERIA’s Strategy and Partnership Programme. |
| Date: | 2021–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2020-09&r= |
| By: | Gérard Pogorel (SES - Département Sciences Economiques et Sociales - Télécom ParisTech, ECOGE - Economie Gestion - I3, une unité mixte de recherche CNRS (UMR 9217) - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - X - École polytechnique - Télécom ParisTech - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres) |
| Abstract: | ABOUT THE EVENT From national economies and companies slowing their activities down to the revival of some protectionist measures, the world is facing an unprecedented crisis deeply affecting the current international trade order. At a time when trade negotiations between the EU and third countries are still very high on the agenda, Europe's economic revival depends also on how we redefine our relations with partners across the globe. Faced by instability on the other side of the Atlantic and competition from China, Europe needs to be clear about defining its values and its comparative advantage. In addition to the ongoing ratification of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Vietnam, to the question of the future EU-UK relationship, Covid-19 has brought several new questions to the fore: How do we keep supply chains flowing for food and medicines? What role can the EU have in distributing its values and standards within the framework of difficult trade relations? How do we ensure less dependence in Europe for some essential products such as medical supplies? |
| Date: | 2020–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02904877&r= |
| By: | Tii N. Nchofoung (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Elvis Dze Achuo (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to empirically verify the effects of natural resource rents on inclusive human development in developing countries. The results from the IV Tobit regression show that natural resource rents have a positive direct effect on inclusive human development in developing countries and that this relationship varies by regional groupings, income levels, level of development and export structure. Looking at the transmission mechanisms, when the interactive variables of governance and environmental quality is introduced, the modulating channel through governance exerts a robust negative synergy effect in the sample of developing countries and positive synergy effects for Africa and low-income countries. When the interactive variable of CO2 emissions is introduced for Africa, a negative net effect of natural resource rents on inclusive human development is obtained. This was up to a policy threshold of 25.4412 of CO2 emissions when the negative effect is nullified. For Asia and the Latin America and Caribbean, a positive net effect is obtained. This is up to a CO2 emissions threshold of 29.038 and 3.6752 respectively, when the positive effect is nullified. Besides, the high income and the upper-middle income countries produce a negative net effect of resource rents on inclusive human development through CO2 modulation, with up to positive CO2 emission thresholds of 37.9365 and 23.6257 respectively. Policy implications are highlighted. In summary, contingent on engaged specificities, where conditional effects are negative, negative thresholds for complementary policies have been provided and in scenarios where conditional impacts are positive, actionable positive thresholds have been provided. |
| Keywords: | Resource Rents, Inclusive Human Development, Institutional Quality, Environmental Quality. |
| JEL: | P48 O11 C23 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/025&r= |
| By: | Jorge M. Agüero (University of Connecticut); Catalina Herrera-Almanza (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign); Kira Villa (University of New Mexico) |
| Abstract: | Domestic violence is a major public health issue worldwide with detrimental consequences not only for its victims but also for the next generations. Despite a large literature documenting the persistent intergenerational transmission of domestic violence, few studies explore the mechanisms underlying this transmission. We advance this literature by exploring human capital as a mechanism using unique longitudinal data from the Philippines. These data allow us to consider broad measures of human capital over the life course, including cognitive skills and psycho-social traits, in addition to the traditional measures of schooling and health. We find that 22 percent of the transmission of domestic violence is explained by these human capital measures. Our results indicate that depression at age 18 and cognitive ability at age 11 are the primary human capital channels, suggesting that interventions targeting these human capital investments hold potential for reducing the cycle of violence across generations, thus, expanding the window of opportunity for effective interventions in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational transmission; domestic violence; human capital; cognitive; psycho-social traits; noncognitive |
| JEL: | J12 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2021-07&r= |
| By: | Hai Anh La (National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, Australia); Riyana Miranti (National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of various government interventions on the spread of COVID-19 as well as stock markets in South-East and East Asia. It finds that stricter interventions – including gathering restrictions, public event cancellations, and mask requirements – helped mitigate the severity of the pandemic significantly in the region. Total border closures had a moderate effect on flattening COVID-19 spread, especially during the onset of the pandemic. Other policies, such as school closures or stay-at-home orders, worked effectively later in the pandemic. The study also shows evidence of herding behaviours in regional stock markets during the pandemic. School closures, gathering restrictions, stay-at-home orders, domestic travelling bans, robust testing policies, and government income support programmes tended to reduce herding behaviour. More stock market integration is found during the onset of the pandemic, compared to the periods before and later in the pandemic, implying the short-term impact of a sudden shock from COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, stock markets, minimum spanning trees, government interventions |
| JEL: | G15 G18 C13 H12 |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-07&r= |
| By: | Ben Shepherd |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews trade in pharmaceutical products, focusing on ASEAN countries. Trade in this sector is of singular policy importance as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, the paper shows that pharmaceuticals are traded within Global Value Chains, which in turn means that international linkages are complex. Second, the paper shows that policy reforms can help boost trade in the sector, which has important human development implications during the pandemic period. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, global value chains, public health, gravity model |
| JEL: | F15 O24 |
| Date: | 2021–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-05&r= |
| By: | Juthathip Jongwanich; Archanun Kohpaiboon (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University); Ayako Obashi (School of International Politics, Economics and Communication, Aoyama Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impacts of advanced technology on a possible change in workers’ skills, wages, and employment due to such technological advancement. Three proxies of advanced technologies are used in the study: (i) information and communications technology, (ii) intensity of robot use, and (iii) value of e-commerce. Our study compares the effects of technological advancements on labour market outcomes with import penetration, delineating into raw materials, capital goods, and final products. Our results show that in Thailand, the impact of advanced technology in pushing workers out of the job market is limited. Instead, it tends to affect reallocation of workers between skilled and unskilled positions. The results vary amongst proxies of technology and sectors. It seems that workers in comparatively capital-intensive industries, including automotive, plastics and chemicals, and electronics and machinery, are the most affected by advanced technology. Dampened wage/income is found only in some proxies of technology and sectors. Our results show less concern of negative impacts induced by imports, particularly imports of capital goods and raw materials, on employment status and income than technological advancement. |
| Keywords: | Technological advancement, Import Penetration, Labour Markets |
| JEL: | F16 O30 O53 |
| Date: | 2020–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2020-09&r= |
| By: | Piergiacomo Sabino |
| Abstract: | In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian processes that are widely used in energy finance applications. We first specify their statistical properties calculating their characteristic function in closed form. This result is instrumental for the derivation of non-arbitrage conditions such that the spot dynamics is consistent with the forward curve without relying on numerical approximations or on numerical integration. Moreover, we conceive an efficient algorithm for the exact generation of the trajectories which gives the possibility to implement Monte Carlo simulations without approximations or bias. We illustrate the applicability of the theoretical findings and the simulation algorithms in the context of the pricing of different contracts, namely, strips of daily call options, Asian options with European style and swing options. Finally, we present an extension to future markets. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.03071&r= |