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on South East Asia |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Glewwe, Paul (University of Minnesota); Vu, Khoa (University of Minnesota); Lee, Jongwook (Seoul National University) |
| Abstract: | Despite being the poorest or second poorest participant, Vietnam performed much better than all other developing countries, and even ahead of wealthier countries such as the U.S. and the U.K., on the 2012 and 2015 PISA assessments. We provide a rigorous investigation of Vietnam's strong performance. After making various parametric and non-parametric corrections for potentially non-representative PISA samples, including bias due to Vietnam's large out-of-school population, Vietnam still remains a large positive outlier conditional on its income. Possible higher motivation of, and coaching given to, Vietnamese students only partly explains Vietnam's performance, and this is also the case for various observed household- and school-level variables. Finally, Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions indicate that the gap in average test scores between Vietnam and the other participating countries is due not to differences in students' and schools' observed characteristics, but instead to Vietnam's greater "productivity" of those characteristics. |
| Keywords: | education, student learning, test scores, enrollment, PISA, Vietnam |
| JEL: | H0 I2 O1 P3 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14315&r= |
| By: | Vuving, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Tracing the evolution of Vietnamese foreign policy since the 1980s, this chapter identifies four major turning points in its trajectory. Each turning point was triggered by an event or series of events that profoundly altered the international environment of Vietnam’s quest for identity, resources, and security. These events exerted enormous impact not only on the conditions under which the country operates but also on Vietnamese views of the world and the key actors in their international environment. When Vietnam’s ruling elites responded to these changes, they set in motion corresponding changes in Vietnamese domestic and foreign policy. The foreign policy periods bracketed by the turning points thus roughly corresponded with phases in the evolution of the Vietnamese state. This paper will tease out the complex relationships between the international environment, the nature of the Vietnamese state, and Vietnamese foreign policy, and shed light on the worldviews and motives behind Vietnam’s foreign policy. The key challenge to current Vietnamese foreign policy, which was also its main shortcoming in the last three decades, is that Vietnam’s policymakers often view the world through the prism of a bygone era. The last section of the paper will briefly scan the horizon for the next turning point in Vietnamese foreign policy. |
| Date: | 2021–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nqzhf&r= |
| By: | Hai-Anh Dang (World Bank); Paul Glewwe (University of Minnesota); Khoa Vu (University of Minnesota); Jongwook Lee (Seoul National University) |
| Abstract: | Despite being the poorest or second poorest participant, Vietnam performed much better than all other developing countries, and even ahead of wealthier countries such as the U.S. and the U.K., on the 2012 and 2015 PISA assessments. We provide a rigorous investigation of Vietnam’s strong performance. After making various parametric and non-parametric corrections for potentially non-representative PISA samples, including bias due to Vietnam’s large out-of-school population, Vietnam still remains a large positive outlier conditional on its income. Possible higher motivation of, and coaching given to, Vietnamese students only partly explains Vietnam’s performance, and this is also the case for various observed household- and school-level variables. Finally, Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions indicate that the gap in average test scores between Vietnam and the other participating countries is due not to differences in students’ and schools’ observed characteristics, but instead to Vietnam’s greater “productivity†of those characteristics. |
| Keywords: | education, student learning, test scores, enrollment, PISA, Vietnam |
| JEL: | H0 I2 O1 P3 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2021-580&r= |
| By: | Fujii, Tomoki (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Nakajima, Maki (National University of Singapore); Xu, Sijia (East China University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | While past two decades have witnessed a remarkable educational progress in Vietnam, ethnic minority children consistently lagged behind ethnic majority children in academic performance. The government of Vietnam has stepped up efforts to assist ethnic minority students in their learning by lowering the linguistic and cultural barriers they face. Among such efforts is the textbook supply program, and we examine its impact on the learning of children proxied by vocabulary test. We apply difference-in-differences estimation to four rounds of the Young Lives data between 2006 and 2015 in order to investigate how the textbook supply program narrowed the gap between the ethnic minority and majority over time. We show that the textbook supply program became more effective in narrowing the ethnic gap as the education policy in Vietnam became reoriented towards ethnic minority children. We also conduct a causal mediation analysis to explore the relevance of behavioural response through the change in time use. The result of this analysis suggests that increased study time is possibly a moderate mediator through which the textbook supply program helps narrow the ethnic gap in the test score only for the young cohort over and above the direct impact from the textbook program. This paper therefore alludes to the importance of delivering carefully designed materials for the target group to bring about meaningful behavioral changes. It also corroborates the findings from the recent literature on teaching at the right level. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic minority; mediation; difference in differences; PPVT; Vietnam |
| JEL: | I24 I25 J15 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2021_002&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Diop, Samba; Nnanna, Joseph |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to understand how countries have leveraged on their economic resilience to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. The focus is on a global sample of 150 countries divided into four main regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, America and Europe. The study develops a health vulnerability index (HVI) and leverages on an existing economic resilience index (ERI) to provide four main scenarios from which to understand the problem statement, namely: ‘low HVI-low ERI’, ‘high HVI-low ERI’, ‘high HVI-high ERI’ and ‘low HVI-high ERI’ quadrants. It is assumed that countries that have robustly fought the pandemic are those in the ‘low HVI-high ERI’ quadrant and to a less extent, countries in the ‘low HVI-low ERI’ quadrant. Most European countries, one African country (i.e. Rwanda), four Asian countries (Japan, China, South Korea and Thailand) and six American countries (USA, Canada, Uruguay, Panama, Argentina and Costa Rica) are apparent in the ideal quadrant. |
| Keywords: | Novel coronavirus, health vulnerability, economic resilience |
| JEL: | E10 E12 E20 E23 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107496&r= |
| By: | C. P. Chandrasekhar (Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.) |
| Abstract: | Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter's recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own. |
| Keywords: | Financial Globalization, Financial Integration, Financial Liberalization, Financial Crises, Regional Cooperation, Central Bank Swaps, Chiang Mai Initiative, Bilateral Swap Arrangements. |
| JEL: | F32 F33 F36 F65 |
| Date: | 2021–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp153&r= |
| By: | Vargas, Jerrick Jan |
| Abstract: | It is necessary for policy makers to understand how the monetary policy is transmitted to the economy through different channels. This study focused on the reduced-form relationships between money, real output and price level and “channel” variables such as domestic credit, exchange rate and real lending interest rate and examined the monetary transmission mechanism in the Philippines, using the vector autoregression approach (VAR). The results derived from the forecast error variance decompositions analyses show that the main sources of variances in output and price level are their “own” shocks. The results of the impulse response functions indicate that monetary policy can affect output and price level and that the effect of monetary policy on output was strongest after two quarters. An expansionary monetary policy increases output in two quarters however; it has a weak effect on price level after two quarters. Furthermore, domestic credit has the most significant effect on output in the Philippines. Theories in monetary economics suggest that an expansionary monetary policy increases output and price level however, in the case of the Philippines, an expansionary monetary policy increases output but have a weak effect on inflation. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Vector Autoregression |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2021–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107507&r= |
| By: | Song, Yeongkwan |
| Abstract: | Many expect that the trade war between the US and China will persist, and East Asia's global value chains will undergo a significant transformation in the mid- to long-term, as China's contracts while that of ASEAN expands. Accordingly, to effectively respond to the coming changes, Korea should adopt proactive strategies to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and attract quality FDI in an effort to realize sustainable growth. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:104&r= |
| By: | Hidayat, Ahmad |
| Abstract: | Berdagang di sekolah adalah salah satu aktivitas yang sering kita jumpai di Indonesia, tak terkecuali di sekolah-sekolah dasar dan sekolah menengah hinggi di lingkungan perguruan tinggi. Aktivitas berdagang di sekolah ini umumnya para pedagang menjual makanan, minuman, mainan dan lainnya. Dalam artikel ini saya selaku penulis hanya membahas mengenai jajanan sekolah SDN 1 Sungai Danau yang artinya hanya membahas mengenai jajanan sekolah di SDN 1 Sungai Danau berupa makanan serta minuman saja, baik yang dijual dari koperasi sekolah maupun dari pedagang gerobak dorong dan juga warung kantin sekolah. |
| Date: | 2021–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zj6nb&r= |
| By: | Juan Casado-Asensio; Takayoshi Kato; Heiwon Shin |
| Abstract: | For many private sector actors, especially micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), it remains challenging to understand how the impacts of climate change may influence their business profitability and continuity over time, and how they can manage climate risks. This working paper explores how governments and development co-operation providers can further engage with the private sector to address these challenges and strengthen its resilience to the negative impacts of climate change. The paper focuses on different roles of the private sector in strengthening climate resilience. It then examines how governments and development co-operation can foster such roles through enhancing domestic institutions and networks, policy frameworks, climate and weather data and information, and financing mechanisms. The proposed actions draw from the experiences of three case studies: Guatemala, the Philippines and Senegal. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dcdaaa:96-en&r= |
| By: | Van Biesebroeck, Johannes; Yi, Yingting; Zaurino, Elena |
| Abstract: | We exploit tariff reductions associated with China's entry into the WTO to evaluate whether the response of trade flows at the extensive margin depends on the degree of product differentiation. We adopt a 4-way difference-in-differences approach to identify the effects as cleanly as possible by comparing market entry of products from each WTO member into China with entry into India and Indonesia. The absolute tariff elasticities are estimated to be relatively large, compared to existing estimates. This is especially true for differentiated goods, for goods with low Chinese demand elasticity, and for exports from OECD countries. We provide both new evidence and a theoretical justification for the heterogeneity of these effects across products and countries. |
| Keywords: | exports; import tariff; trade policy; WTO |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15906&r= |
| By: | Deserranno, Erika; León-Ciliotta, Gianmarco |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of raising the level and the transparency of financial incentives offered to local agents for acquiring clients of a new banking product on take-up. We find that paying agents higher incentives increases take-up, but only when the incentives are unknown to prospective clients. When disclosed, higher incentives instead have no effect on take-up, despite greater agent effort. This is explained by the financial incentives conveying a negative signal about the reliability and trustworthiness of the product and its providers to potential clients. In contexts with limited information about a new technology, financial incentives can thus affect technology adoption through both a supply-side effect (more agent effort) as well as a demand-side signaling effect (change in demand perceptions). Organizations designing incentive schemes should therefore pay close attention to both the level and the transparency of such incentives. |
| Keywords: | financial incentives; pay transparency; Technology adoption |
| JEL: | D84 G28 J31 M52 O14 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15714&r= |
| By: | Riatu Mariatul Qibthiyyah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | In the year 2020, in response to COVID-19 health crisis, there were series of adjustment adopted by provinces and local governments. From their stated revised budget, most of provinces and local governments responded by shifting spending allocation to COVID-19 related activities mitigation, rather than by expanding expenditures. Lower-level government average expenditures growth in 2020 is -10.11% and -12.11% respectively for provinces and local governments. Expenditure contraction occurred in all provinces and only 12.4% of local governments show of a positive growth in its public expenditures. On the type of expenditures adjustment, a high increase of emergency spending which covered of 3.3% of total provinces and local government expenditures, may also translate to higher health expenditures. Based on aggregate provincial level data and given that COVID-19 fatalities were concentrated in Java-Bali region, the preliminary results show that emergency spending seem effective in reducing COVID-19 fatalities for the case of provinces in Java-Bali region. |
| Keywords: | state and local finance — government expenditure — pandemic COVID-19 — emergency spending |
| JEL: | H24 J2 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202159&r= |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Hien Thi Kim Nguyen; Donghyun Park |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the association between episodes of large fiscal impulses (expansions and adjustments) and sustainable development indicators (prosperity, resilience, and inclusivity). We provide country studies of Chile, Poland, South Africa, and Thailand, examining the components of government expenses and tax revenues, and reporting four stylized patterns from the analysis. (i) Fiscal expansions led to higher growth rates and reduced negative trade-offs, e.g., pollution and poor-health mortalities associated with economic growth. (ii) Fiscal adjustments led to a more inclusive economy, lowered poverty headcounts, improved sanitation, and cleaner technology access. (iii) Fiscal expansions followed an increase in direct taxes (especially corporate taxes) and a decline in social contributions, and preceded a decline in other direct taxes and an increase in wage bills. (iv) Fiscal adjustments followed a decline in other direct taxes and social contributions, an increase in wage bills, and preceded a decline in government consumption expenditure and transfers. In light of these findings, the domestic resource mobilization should consider the time paths of the taxes and expenditure components to understand their empirical linkages with the sustainable development outcomes in the respective countries. |
| JEL: | E62 F15 F41 O11 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28740&r= |
| By: | Kim, Jinyoung (Korea University); Kim, Seonghoon (Singapore Management University); Koh, Kanghyock (Korea University) |
| Abstract: | Despite unambiguous predictions of the canonical model of a competitive labor market, empirical studies on the labor market effects of payroll taxation provide conflicting evidence. Our meta-analysis shows that varying degrees of labor market competitiveness across places and time could be one explanation for the mixed results. We then estimate the labor market impacts of payroll taxation in Singapore, the country with most competitive and flexible labor market among the countries investigated in the literature. By exploiting the sharp reduction in payroll tax rate when workers turn 60, we find that the payroll tax cut in Singapore has a large effect on wages without changes in employment. We provide novel evidence corroborating the canonical model prediction that the welfare costs of social insurance programs financed by payroll taxes can be minimized in a competitive labor market. |
| Keywords: | payroll tax, labor market outcomes, incidence, regression discontinuity design, meta-analysis, labor market competitiveness |
| JEL: | H24 I31 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14321&r= |
| By: | Youssef El-Khatib; Stéphane Goutte (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï], Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Zororo Makumbe; Josep Vives |
| Abstract: | In this paper a hybrid model is investigated to capture both financial behaviors of an asset: (i) the leverage effect and (ii) the stochastic volatility component. For this we consider a hybrid model that takes the strengths of the Heston and the CEV models. The pricing of European options is investigated both theoretically and empirically. A decomposition formula that allows to estimate the option price is obtained. Moreover, numerical simulations of the asset price are done to give a better and concrete vision of the adding of this approach. In addition, the price of a European call option under the hybrid model is computed using the Monte Carlo method and our formula. Illustrations and tables show the efficiency of the numerical method based on our approximate formula. |
| Keywords: | Heston-CEV model,Stochastic volatility,European options,Monte Carlo method,Decomposition formula |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03211698&r= |
| By: | John Goodell; Stéphane Goutte (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï], Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines) |
| Abstract: | We highlight the considerable recent research that investigates how cryptocurrencies have been impacted by COVID-19. We highlight common threads of investigation and consider common findings and conclusions. We also provide suggestions for future research. Additionally, we provide an overview of a recent paper in which we report on a study that applies wavelet methods to daily data of COVID-19 world deaths and daily Bitcoin prices, |
| Keywords: | cryptocurrencies,Bitcoin,COVID-19,Market co-movement |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03211702&r= |
| By: | Grossman, Allison N.; Nomikos, William George; Siddiqui, Niloufer |
| Abstract: | Recent efforts to improve attitudes toward outgroups and reduce support for extremists in violent settings report mixed results. Donors and aid organizations have spent millions of dollars to amplify the voices of moderate religious figures to counter violent extremism in West Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Despite this investment, we know little about whether such messaging persuades the primary recruits of violent extremist organizations: at-risk youth in fragile settings. In this paper, we consider whether pro-peace religious messaging can promote social cohesion among school-age respondents in Burkina Faso. Using a survey experiment, we find little evidence that such messages affect reported attitudes or behaviors towards religious extremism and find instead that it can have the unintended effect of increasing intolerance towards ethnic others. Our findings carry lessons about the inadvertent priming of ethnic identities that can result in a backlash effect among certain societal segments. |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:49na5&r= |
| By: | Mohammad Isleimeyyeh; Amine Ben Amar (RBS College); Stéphane Goutte (VNU - Vietnam National University [Hanoï]) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate cross-commodity futures markets connectedness over different nearest-to-maturities. We thus implement time and time-frequency estimations for two constructed baskets of commodities, classified based on common delivery months. Using daily data spanning the period 1995-2020, we provide a set of stylized facts on the extent to which commodity markets are integrated or segmented. More specifically, our results show that the total connectedness is broadly insensitive to maturity. However, after 2008 financial crisis, the connectedness among commodity futures prices increases when the maturity increases. Furthermore, the overall connectedness amplifies during crises periods compared to tranquil periods. Moreover, certain pairwise markets are comparatively highly linked such as crude oil and heating oil, wheat and corn, corn and soybean, and soybean and soybean oil. The results also demonstrate that crude oil and heating oil are net transmitters all the time and across maturities, while natural gas, gold, and wheat are net receivers all the time and across maturities. More interestingly, the frequency decomposition reveals that most of periods of high total connectedness are driven mostly by high frequency components, which may indicate that commodity markets process information rapidly, except for the COVID-19 crisis period where total connectedness has been driven by lower frequency components. |
| Keywords: | Cross-commodity integration,financialization,energy,agricultural,precious metals,futures,nearest-to-maturities,connectedness,COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03211699&r= |