nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2021‒03‒08
23 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. CSR in Vietnam: What factors would promote CSR in Vietnam? By , AISDL
  2. The Impact of Trade Facilitation on Vietnam’s Trade Flows By , AISDL
  3. Intangible Capital and Innovation: An Empirical Analysis of Vietnamese Enterprises By Qing Li; Long Hai Vo
  4. The Influence of Leadership Style on Managerial Performance of Village Governments with Motivation as Mediation By Tahar, Afrizal; Abdillah, Muhammad Akhid; Institute of Research, Asian
  6. Technical efficiency of Vietnamese manufacturing firms: do FDI spillovers matter? By Canh Nguyen; Minh Le; Khoa Cai; Michel Simioni
  7. Convergence of Income across Central Provinces and Cities in Vietnam By Ly Dai Hung
  8. Top economics universities and research institutions in Vietnam: evidence from the SSHPA dataset By , AISDL
  9. Banking Development, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Vietnam By , AISDL
  10. Dual-objective Donors and Investment across Economic Regions: Theory and Evidence By King Yoong Lim; Chunping Liu
  11. Transformational Leadership and Organizational Success: Evidence from Tertiary Institutions By Nuel, Okoli Ifeanyi E.; K., Nnabuife Ezimma; Ifechi, Adani Nnenne; Emmanuella, Ugbo Ifeoma; Institute of Research, Asian
  12. Nhà khoa học Việt Nam trở thành thành viên Ban điều hành của Hiệp hội Học thuật Quản trị Kinh doanh quốc tế By , AISDL
  13. Good business practices improve productivity in Myanmar's manufacturing sector: Evidence from two matched employer-employee surveys By Paolo Falco; Henrik Hansen; John Rand; Finn Tarp; Neda Trifkovi?
  14. Traditional and modern employee benefits in Myanmar's manufacturing sector By Henrik Hansen; John Rand; Neda Trifkovi?
  15. Does It Matter Where You Invest? The Impact of FDI on Domestic Job Creation and Destruction By BiN Ni; Hayato Kato; Yang Liu
  17. Cost and affordability of healthy diets across and within countries By Herforth, A.; Bai, Y.; Venkat, A.; Mahrt, K.; Ebel, A.; Masters, W.A.
  18. Tourism Management in Tahura Sultan Adam (Case Study in Mandiangin Timur Village and Mandiangin Barat) By Sompa, Andi Tenri
  19. Impact of Accountant Resource on Quality of Accounting Information System: Evidence from Vietnamese Small and Medium Enterprises By , AISDL
  20. Do IMF Reports Affect Market Expectations ? A Sentiment Analysis Approach By Cécile Couharde; Hamza Bennani; Yoan Wallois
  21. Non-linear Incentives, Worker Productivity, and Firm Profits: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment By Freeman, Richard B.; Huang, Wei; Li, Teng
  22. World Economy Winter 2020 - Global economic recovery progresses overall By Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
  23. Weltwirtschaft im Winter 2020 - Weltwirtschaftliche Erholung schreitet insgesamt voran By Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich

  1. By: , AISDL
    Abstract: The role of CSR in Vietnam needs to be enhanced and encouraged properly by the stakeholders in relation to each other to catch up with MNCs, western governments, and international organizations at political, legal, and economic levels. Since they introduced this concept of CSR to Vietnam in 2002. However, when applying CSR practices in Vietnam, MNCs need to adapt and modify to particular situations of Vietnam. For instance, they seem to recognize and finally find a way to respect and implement CSR projects that support the Buddhist or socialist beliefs of their Vietnamese employees, partners, and authorities. In this essay, we will discuss what factors would promote CSR in the context of Vietnam.
    Date: 2019–10–31
  2. By: , AISDL
    Abstract: In a globalized economy, countries actively participate in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to bring their advantageous products to the global market through cross-border transport to satisfy customers. Trade Facilitation (TF) has become key to address the difficulties faced by traders in cross-border transport. In the trend of global TF, Vietnam has always been committed to implement TF measures by simplify customs procedures and improving customs clearance efficiency at the border crossing in order to help traders reduce their trading costs. This paper mainly considers the impact of TF measures on Vietnam‘s trade flow under the effect of FTAs. Using the gravity model extended with quantitative measures of customs environment, regulatory environment, and service infrastructure, this paper estimates the impact of TF on bilateral trade flows with Vietnam. The results show that port and customs effects have positive impacts on Vietnam's trade flows. The results also show that these impacts are consistent despite the existence of FTAs. The implementation of TF measures always requires coordination of countries to produce the best results. Indeed, the increase in trade flows between countries will bring economic benefits. And when the reforms of TF are strictly implemented, reducing trade costs will increase trade volume. In a nutshell, TF has gradually become one of the important factors of economic growth.
    Date: 2020–06–23
  3. By: Qing Li (Department of Economics and Finance, SILC Business School, Shanghai University.); Long Hai Vo (Economics Department, Business School, the University of Western Australia; Research Centre in Business, Economics and Resources, Ho Chi Minh City Open University; Faculty of Finance, Banking and Business Administration, Quy Nhon University)
    Abstract: Intangible capital is an important growth driver in the modern knowledge-based and innovation-driven economy. While there seems to be sufficient support for the role of intangible capital from developed economies, evidence from fast-growing developing countries is much more limited. This paper explores the heterogeneous pattern and potential determinants of firm-level intangible capital investment in Vietnam. We found that firm size, human capital, and information and communication technology increase the likelihood to invest in intangible capital. Additionally, an inverted-U shaped relation is identified between market competition and intangible capital investment: Moderate levels of market competition induce firms in Vietnam to invest more in innovative activities, but the effect of stronger competition diminishes.
    Keywords: Intangible capital investment; innovation; Vietnamese firms
    JEL: O34 O12 R11
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Tahar, Afrizal; Abdillah, Muhammad Akhid; Institute of Research, Asian
    Abstract: This study aims to understand the leadership style’s influence on the village government’s managerial performance with motivation as mediation. This test used the village government’s managerial performance as the dependent variable, transactional leadership style and transformational leadership style as independent variables, and motivation as a mediating variable. The sample employed was the village government apparatus in Sleman Regency, Indonesia, utilizing a convenience sampling method. The data type used in this study was the primary data. Based on the distributing questionnaires’ process obtained a sample of 102 respondents. Hypothesis testing in this study employed simple regression and multiple regression using SPSS v.15 software applications. The results showed that transactional leadership style, transformational leadership style, and motivation positively influenced the village government’s managerial performance. Meanwhile, motivation could not mediate the relationship between leadership style and managerial performance.
    Date: 2021–02–22
  5. By: Susniwati, Susniwati
    Abstract: Batu City is known as one of the leading tourist cities in Indonesia because of its extraordinary potential of natural beauty. The purpose of this research is to analysize the actor network in tourism management based on sustainable development in Batu City. This study used a descriptive research method with a qualitative approach. As a result it is recommended to strengthen the role Department of Environmental Service in tourism development policies in Batu City. Batu City Government needs to establish a forum for “Community Conscious Environment” as a controlling agent. Batu City Government also needs to expand cooperation with academics, especially in environmental assessment cooperation.
    Date: 2020–10–19
  6. By: Canh Nguyen (VNU-HCM - Vietnam National University - Ho Chi Minh City); Minh Le (Banking University of Hochiminh city); Khoa Cai (Industrial University); Michel Simioni (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the spillover effect (backward, forward, and horizontal linkage) of foreign direct investment (FDI) firms on the technical efficiency of local firms. This research extends the literature by employing meta-frontier framework analysis which is superior to single stochastic analysis because each industry has a different combination of inputs (or dissimilar production technology). Using a large data set (178,700 firm-year observations), this paper finds evidence on the negative impact of the horizontal and forward linkages on the meta-technical inefficiency for the data set as a whole as well as in three economic regions, in private owned firms, and capital and labor-intensive sectors in Vietnam.
    Keywords: Forward and horizontal linkage,Vietnam.,Foreign direct investment,Backward,Meta translog inefficiency,Meta-frontier framework
    Date: 2021–02–01
  7. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper asscesses the determinants of income convergence (absolute convergence) across provinces and central cities in Vietnam. The analysis methodology combines the theoretical model based on Solow (1956) with emprical evidence based on a dataset of 63 provinces and central cities over 2010-2019. The result shows that the initial income level, the difference on economic growth rate of each provinces and central cities compared with the leading province and the human capital jointly affect positively the convergence of income. Thus, the paper implies that the public policy for income convergence can focus on the human capital, one of three strategic breakthroughs for the next years.
    Keywords: Convergence of Income,Neo-classical Growth Model,Economics of Regions and Provinces
    Date: 2020–12
  8. By: , AISDL
    Abstract: Economic research is vital for creating more suitable policies to facilitate economic growth. Employing a combination of descriptive and Bayesian analyses, this paper investigates the research landscape of the economics discipline in Vietnam, in particular, the leading affiliations in the field and how these institutions compare to each other in terms of productivity, the number of lead authors, new authors and publications' journal impact factor. We also examine the differences in the authors' productivity based on their age and gender. The dataset extracted from the SSHPA database includes 1,444 articles. The findings show that among top producers of economic research in Vietnam, seven are universities, leaving only one representative of research institutes. These top producers account for 52% of research output among 178 institutes recorded in the database. We also find a correlation between a researcher's affiliation, sex, and scientific productivity in Vietnam's economic discipline. Overall, publications by male researchers outnumber those by female ones in most of the top affiliations. The findings also indicate that 40–44 is the age group with the highest scientific productivity. Researchers' collaboration, which is observed through co-authorship, is on the rise in all of the top eight economic research affiliations. However, the quality of current Vietnam's scientific works in the discipline is questionable. Therefore, it is suggested that in order to sustain scientific productivity, economic researchers might need to balance the quantity and quality of their contributions.
    Date: 2021–02–15
  9. By: , AISDL
    Abstract: This study is aimed towards assessing the role of banking development and energy consumption on economic growth in Vietnam for the period ranging from 1990 to 2019. The researcher has collected data on the variables from 1990 to 2019 related with banking development, energy consumption and economic growth. On the data collected on the specified variables, certain tests have been conducted. This research has used Stata as the statistical platform to carry out data analysis where descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Bounds test, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) have been applied on the data. The results indicated that the data was non-stationary and had trend which can predict the future data. Based on this condition, ARDL test and Bounds test were applied. The results indicated that overall, the model was found to be significant. Individually, energy consumption had a significant impact in both short term and long term however, there was insignificant association among banking development and economic growth.
    Date: 2021–01–31
  10. By: King Yoong Lim; Chunping Liu
    Abstract: Based on a novel theoretical framework with a dual-objective donor giving grant (driven by benevolent objective) and loan aid (profitability motive), as well as a public private partnership-like investment structure and multi-region feedback mechanism, we estimate a panel structural VAR model of grant aid, loan aid, private consumption, and aggregate capital stock using data of nine economic communities/regions covering the 1961-2017 period. By allowing for cross-heterogeneity and interdependencies across regions, we identify empirical commonalities and differences across regions. Amidst a generally weak aid-investment link, we find loan aid to Granger-cause capital accumulation, and among African regions it is the most (least) productive-in terms of within- and spillover effects-in the IGAD (ECOWAS) region. In addition, our results suggest deeper regional integration between the Sub-Saharan African regions than the collective Latin American & Caribbean regions and the two Southern Asian regions (Southeast Asia and South Asia) examined.
    Keywords: foreign aid, donor objectives, investment, regional integration, structural VAR.
    JEL: F35 O40 P45
    Date: 2021–01
  11. By: Nuel, Okoli Ifeanyi E.; K., Nnabuife Ezimma; Ifechi, Adani Nnenne; Emmanuella, Ugbo Ifeoma; Institute of Research, Asian
    Abstract: This study examined the extent to which transformational leadership dimensions affect organizational success in tertiary institutions in Anambra State Southeast Nigeria. A cross-sectional research design was employed for this study. A total of 325 staff members from each university were surveyed in this study and the total number of employees was increased to (N) 650. However, 154 usable copies of the questionnaires were finally collected and are used in the analysis of data. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire. The questionnaire was tested for reliability by using Cronbach alpha to determine the internal consistency of the items. The study used expert judgment method to determine content validity. Pearson’s product moment correlation techniques were used to analyze the data at 5% level of significance. The results showed that transformational leadership dimensions and organizational success in the selected tertiary institutions had a strong positive and significant correlation. The study concluded that leadership is a critical success factor that can bring about changes in employees and universities as a whole. The study recommended that management at all levels in the universities should provide proper self-development plan and build teamwork to ensure continued optimism and enthusiasms within their employees.
    Date: 2021–02–22
  12. By: , AISDL
    Abstract: Ngày 24/6/2019, TS. Vương Quân Hoàng, Giám đốc Trung tâm Nghiên cứu Xã hội Liên ngành (ISR), Trường Đại học PHENIKAA đã được lựa chọn là thành viên Ban điều hành của Hiệp hội Học thuật Quản trị Kinh doanh quốc tế - Phân hội Đông Nam Á (Academy of International Business, Southeast Asia Regional Chapter - AIB-SEAR).
    Date: 2019–06–26
  13. By: Paolo Falco; Henrik Hansen; John Rand; Finn Tarp; Neda Trifkovi?
    Abstract: We look into the relationship between business practices and enterprise productivity using panel data with matched employer and employee information from Myanmar. The data show that micro, small, and medium-size enterprises in Myanmar typically do only a few modern business practices. Even so, through estimates of value-added functions and labour demand relations we find a positive and economically important association between business practices and productivity. The results are confirmed when we utilize employer-employee information to estimate Mincer-type wage regressions.
    Keywords: Business, Management, Productivity, Myanmar, Small and medium enterprises, Firm behaviour, Manufacturing firms
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Henrik Hansen; John Rand; Neda Trifkovi?
    Abstract: Employer-provided benefits are independent elements in the compensation packages that make up firms' payment strategies. Such benefits are aimed at attracting and retaining preferred employees and improving incentives. In Myanmar, there are two employee benefit systems: (1) an unregulated traditional system in which firms offer their employees in-kind benefits such as meals and accommodation; and (2) a modern mandatory system in which firms are required by law to offer payment schemes such as payment-while-absent and compensation for accidents.
    Keywords: compensation packages, employee benefits, Labour law, Myanmar, Benefits, Employees, Compensation management
    Date: 2021
  15. By: BiN Ni (Faculty of Economics, Hosei University, Machida, Tokyo, Japan.); Hayato Kato (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Yang Liu (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI))
    Abstract: This study uses unique division-level data of Japanese firms to examine how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects domestic employment. Contrary to most previous studies focusing on the effect on net employment growth, we decompose it into gross job creation and gross job destruction. We find that FDI destination plays an important role: FDI to Asia increases job creation, while FDI to Europe or North America decreases it. A frictional search-and-matching model with heterogeneous jobs can explain the differential effects. The model provides additional predictions on job creation and destruction by job type, which are also empirically confirmed.
    Keywords: Outward FDI, firm-establishment-division-level data, multinational enterprises(MNEs), large-firm search model, high/low-skilled jobs
    JEL: F23 J21 J23
    Date: 2021–01
  16. By: , AISDL
    Abstract: Sau một thời gian thực thi VHDN, hình ảnh một Trung tâm Điều độ HTĐ miền Bắc nói riêng và Tập đoàn điện lực Việt Nam nói chung uy tín, thân thiện, tận tâm đang dần được hình thành trong mắt khách hàng sử dụng điện, các đối tác và cộng đồng xã hội. Phát huy những thành quả đó, CBCNV và người lao động tại Trung tâm đã và đang không ngừng nỗ lực, hoàn thiện bản thân, chung tay xây dựng một EVN lớn mạnh với bản sắc văn hóa riêng, tạo nên giá trị bền vững của một Tập đoàn kinh tế nhà nước hàng đầu trong hội nhập kinh tế quốc tế...
    Date: 2019–04–08
  17. By: Herforth, A.; Bai, Y.; Venkat, A.; Mahrt, K.; Ebel, A.; Masters, W.A.
    Abstract: Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020 – Price and affordability are key barriers to accessing sufficient, safe, nutritious food to meet dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. In this study, the least-cost items available in local markets are identified to estimate the cost of three diet types: energy sufficient, nutrient adequate, and healthy (meeting food-based dietary guidelines). For price and availability the World Bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP) dataset is used, which provides food prices in local currency units (LCU) for 680 foods and non-alcoholic beverages in 170 countries in 2017. In addition, country case studies are developed with national food price datasets in United Republic of Tanzania, Malawi, Ethiopia, Ghana and Myanmar. The findings reveal that healthy diets by any definition are far more expensive than the entire international poverty line of USD 1.90, let alone the upper bound portion of the poverty line that can credibly be reserved for food of USD 1.20. The cost of healthy diets exceeds food expenditures in most countries in the Global South. The findings suggest that nutrition education and behaviour change alone will not substantially improve dietary consumption where nutrient adequate and healthy diets, even in their cheapest form, are unaffordable for the majority of the poor. To make healthy diets cheaper, agricultural policies, research, and development need to shift toward a diversity of nutritious foods. This publication was developed as a background study for "The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020" (available at
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2020–12–10
  18. By: Sompa, Andi Tenri
    Abstract: Sultan Adam Tahura is the largest Tahura area in Indonesia. A Tahura which has the widest area is both a pride and a challenge in maintaining and managing this area so that it can benefit the community, both ecologically, economically, and socially. This study aims to describe how the management of Sultan Adam's Tahura natural tourism in several ways perspective development. A qualitative approach is used in research. To provide in-depth descriptions, descriptive methods are implemented. Data collection stages through three stages. Analysis model of Miles and Huberman chose for present narrative text in research. The results of the study describe that the Community Empowerment Program that has been implemented following the principle of community empowerment in the management of the Sultan Adam Tahura natural tourism in Belangian Village, Aranio Subdistrict, Banjar Regency is as follows: 1) Program for the Use of Village Fund Allocation, 2) the Riam Kanan Watershed Rehabilitation Program, 3) Social Forestry Program in the form of Forestry Partners, and 4) Tourism Village Development Program. The fourth economic impact of the Community Empowerment Program implemented in Belangian Village, the District as a whole can be concluded that it has been able to improve the welfare of Belangian Village residents.
    Date: 2021–01–31
  19. By: , AISDL
    Abstract: Improving the quality of accounting information systems through accountant resources is beneficial to the performance and sustainable development of SMEs. This study investigated the impact of accountant resources on the quality of accounting information systems in Vietnamese SMEs. Accounting information system quality was measured by a multidimensional scale including system quality, information quality, and usefulness. The study tested hypotheses using Path analysis of Structural Equation Model based on 434 respondents. The findings indicated a strong interaction between the components of the accounting information system quality under the effect of accountant resources. The results showed a positive direct effect of accountant resources on system quality and the path analysis results also revealed an influence of accountant resources on information quality and usefulness via mediating variables. The results highlighted the importance of accountant resources for the quality of accounting information systems. This study contributed theoretically to the non-financial indicator for measuring accounting information system quality.
    Date: 2020–03–30
  20. By: Cécile Couharde; Hamza Bennani; Yoan Wallois
    Abstract: We introduce an original dataset based on the qualitative content of the Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Exploiting this rich database, we gauge several measures of IMF sentiment based on the REO reports towards 16 countries in three regions, Asia and Pacific, Europe and Western Hemisphere, from 2007 to 2018 and examine their impact on financial markets. We find that the qualitative content of the REO reports has significant repercussions on stock market returns in Europe and bond yields in Asia and Pacific over short time horizons, these impacts disappearing over time. We also demonstrate that the impact of IMF sentiment is robust to the use of analternative sentiment measure that focuses exclusively on negative words.
    Keywords: Financial markets, High frequency, IMF, Sentiment index, Text analysis
    JEL: F53 G15 Z13
    Date: 2021
  21. By: Freeman, Richard B. (Harvard University); Huang, Wei (National University of Singapore); Li, Teng (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Using administrative data from a major Chinese insurance firm that raised its sales targets and rewards for insurance agents in a highly non-linear incentive system, we find that the improvement in productivity far outweighed the costs associated with bunching distortions and other gaming behaviors. Labor turnover decreased, which suggests that the extra pay for workers exceeded the non-pecuniary cost of extra effort by workers, and thus improved their well-being. The firm gained about two-thirds of the higher net output, making the reform profitable. Analysis of non-linear incentive systems should accordingly focus more on the productivity-enhancing than on the distortionary effects.
    Keywords: non-linear incentives, insurance commission, strategic gaming behavior, productivity, turnover rates
    JEL: J33 M52
    Date: 2021–02
  22. By: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Abstract: In the third quarter of 2020, the global economy rebounded strongly from the steep fall in output suffered in the first half of the year amid the covid-19 pandemic. Currently, the recovery is being slowed down by another wave of infections and policy measures to contain it, but on aggregate global economy is likely remain on an upward trajectory. While GDP in Europe is likely to decline again in the fourth quarter, output should continue to rise in most of the rest of the world, with economic momentum in China being actually quite high. Unlike in spring, manufacturing output, international trade in goods, and raw material prices have apparently been hardly affected so far. Economic activity is likely to recover in the course of the first quarter even where it is currently depressed, as the wave of infection is expected to subside. In the remainder of the year, with the population increasingly being vaccinated, a progressive normalization of the economic environment can be expected, including for the particularly contact-intensive sectors of the economy. We have reduced our forecast for global growth from September by 0.2 percentage points for 2020 and by 0.6 percentage points for 2021. We now expect world output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) to increase by 6.1 percent in 2021, following a 3.8 percent dropp in the current year. In 2022, global economic activity is projected to increase by 4.5 percent. While this is again stronger than the medium-term trend, production will nevertheless remain well below the level that had been expected before the crisis. For world trade in goods, we expect an increase of 8.8 percent, following a decline of 5.4 percent this year.
    Keywords: World Economy,advanced economies,emerging economies,monetary policy,Japan,Russia,ASEAN,Covid-19,COVOD-19,COVID19
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Hauber, Philipp; Kooths, Stefan; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Abstract: Die Weltwirtschaft hat im dritten Quartal einen erheblichen Teil der in der ersten Jahreshälfte aufgrund der Covid-19-Pandemie erlittenen Rückgänge im Produktionsniveau wieder aufgeholt. Derzeit wird die Erholung durch eine weitere Infektionswelle und Maßnahmen zu ihrer Eindämmung zwar gebremst, im weltwei-ten Aggregat bleibt die Produktion aber aufwärtsgerichtet. Während das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Europa im vierten Quartal wohl erneut zurückgeht, dürfte es in der übrigen Welt zumeist weiter steigen; in China ist die konjunkturelle Dynamik aktuell sogar recht hoch. Anders als im Frühjahr sind bislang keine gravierenden negativen Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf die Produktion im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, den interna-tionalen Warenhandel und die Rohstoffpreise erkennbar. Mit dem erwarteten Abflauen der Infektionswelle dürfte sich die wirtschaftliche Aktivität im Verlauf des ersten Quartals auch dort wieder erholen, wo sie zwischenzeitlich spürbar gesunken war. Für den weiteren Verlauf des Jahres ist dann mit zunehmender Durchimpfung der Bevölkerung eine nachhaltige Verringerung der Infektionsrisiken und eine fortschreitende Normalisierung der Rahmenbedingungen auch für die besonders kontaktintensiven Wirtschaftszweige zu erwarten. Für 2021 rechnen wir mit einem Anstieg der Weltproduktion (gemessen auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten) um 6,1 Prozent, nach einem Einbruch um 3,8 Prozent im laufenden Jahr. Auch im Jahr 2022 wird die weltwirtschaftliche Aktivität mit 4,1 Prozent voraussichtlich stärker steigen als im mittelfristigen Trend, die Produktion wird gleichwohl längerfristig deutlich unter dem Niveau bleiben, mit dem vor der Krise gerechnet werden konnte. Damit haben wir unsere September-Prognose für das Jahr 2020 um 0,2 Prozentpunkte und für das Jahr 2021 um 0,6 Prozent-punkte reduziert. Für den Welthandel (Waren) rechnen wir mit einem Anstieg von 8,8 Prozent, nach ei-nem Rückgang um 5,4 Prozent in diesem Jahr.
    Keywords: Weltwirtschaft,Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften,Schwellenländer,Geldpolitik,Japan,Russland,ASEAN,Covid-19,COVOD-19,COVID19
    Date: 2020

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