nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2021‒03‒01
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Overall business climate and its impact on environmental sustainability: analyzing evidence from ASEAN countries By Meqbel Mishary Aliedan
  2. Summarizing Online Conversation of Indonesia Tourism Industry using Network Text Analysis By Andry Alamsyah; Sheila Shafira; Muhamad Alfin Yudhistira
  3. Reshaping Trade Ties with China in the Aftermath of COVID-19 By Julia Grübler
  4. Effect of ICT on Women Entrepreneur Business Performance: Case of Malaysia By Isa, Filzah Md; Muhammad, Nik Maheran Nik; Ahmad, Azizah; Noor, Shaista; Institute of Research, Asian
  5. Enhancing social performance of NGOs operation in Indonesia through external positive pressure: mediating role of orientation dimensions and sustainable practices By Agussani Agussani; A. Akrim
  6. Oil palm and structural transformation of agriculture in Indonesia By Chrisendo, Daniel; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
  7. Corona Buat Ekonomi Merana By Persada, Penerbit Pena Mr; Dufan, Chania
  8. Inducing organizational citizenship behavior through green human resource management bundle: drawing implications for environmentally sustainable performance. A case study By Yuris Danilwan; Dewi Budhiartini Yuli Isnaini; Ikbar Pratama; Dirhamsyah Dirhamsyah
  9. Vietnam; 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vietnam By International Monetary Fund
  10. Property Business Classification Model Based on Indonesia E-Commerce Data By Andry Alamsyah; Fariz Denada Sudrajat; Herry Irawan
  11. Barking Up the Wrong Tree: SMEs' Perception of Tax using the ZMET Method By Puspasari, Novita; Herwiyanti, Eliada; Pinasti, Margani; Institute of Research, Asian
  12. Mutual Embeddedness: The Architecture of Civil-Military Relations in Vietnam By Vuving, Alexander
  13. Discussion points on the early days of crowdfunding research in Vietnam By Ho, Tung Manh
  14. Debt specialisation and diversification: International evidence By Gregory Duffee; Peter Hördahl
  15. Measuring Marketing Communications Mix Effort Using Magnitude Of Influence And Influence Rank Metric By Andry Alamsyah; Endang Sofyan; Tsana Hasti Nabila
  16. Economic Policy Uncertainty: Cross-Country Linkages and Spillover Effects on Economic Development in Some Belt and Road Countries By Jing Yuan; Yajing Dong; Weijie Zhai; Zongwu Cai
  17. Mapping Organization Knowledge Network and Social Media Based Reputation Management By Andry Alamsyah; Maribella Syawiluna
  18. Digital labour in the Philippines: Emerging forms of brokerage By Soriano, Cheryll Ruth
  19. Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World; Economic Challenges and Opportunities for Asia-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere By Manuela Goretti; Lamin Y Leigh; Aleksandra Babii; Serhan Cevik; Stella Kaendera; Dirk V Muir; Sanaa Nadeem; Gonzalo Salinas
  20. Testing environmental regulations, green innovation and social distribution as determinants of environmental sustainability: a case of ASEAN region By Ichsan Anwary; Yahya Ahmad Zein
  21. Asset allocation in extreme market conditions: a comparative analysis between developed and emerging economies By Montshioa, Keitumetse; Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
  22. Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices By Harald Uhlig; Taojun Xie

  1. By: Meqbel Mishary Aliedan (KFU - King Faisal University)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of overall business climate on the environmental sustainability factor by specifically considering the ASEAN countries named as Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore. This paper fills the gap of the previous researches by majorly considering the trade openness, competitiveness and ease of doing business as independent variables, environmental sustainability as a dependent variable, while GDP and inflation are studied as controlling variables. All the variables data are collected from the country's official sites over the period of 2000-2015. The long-run equilibrium relationship between the tested variables is confirmed by Kao and Pedroni based panel cointegration tests. According to the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) results, the trade openness, ease of doing business, and GDP cause a significant negative influence on the environmental sustainability within the selected states as compared to competitiveness based independent variables. This paper is an informative approach in front of their state's business community, government, policymakers, natives, and other related ones to consider the negative influence of overall business climate on the environment. In addition, there are some limitations like if industrialization and population growth are considered as controlling variables then more significant and authentic outcomes will be generated.
    Keywords: Trade Openness,Competitiveness,Ease of Doing Business,GDP,Inflation,Environmental Sustainability
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Andry Alamsyah; Sheila Shafira; Muhamad Alfin Yudhistira
    Abstract: The tourism industry is one of the potential revenues and has an important role in economics in Indonesia. The tourism Industry brings job and business opportunities, foreign exchange earnings, and infrastructure development, tourism also plays the role of one of the main drivers in socio-economic progress in Indonesia. The number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia increase cumulatively and has reached 10.41 million visits or an increase of 10.46 percent from the same period in the previous year. Government trying to increase the number of tourists to visit Indonesia by promoting many Indonesian tourist attractions.
    Date: 2021–02
  3. By: Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The effects of travel bans, and the disruption of production and shipping due to COVID-19 quickly rippled through global production and supply chains, even when the virus SARS-CoV-2 was still contained within East Asia. The global spread of the virus resulted in export restrictions on goods needed to fight the pandemic, while the import of similar goods was liberalised. Short-sighted panic reactions increased the vulnerability of global value chains and revealed dependencies on imported goods, particularly from China. Despite changes in European attitudes towards China during the COVID-19 crisis, the pandemic does not seem to be a major game changer. Instead, it acts as a catalyst for trends that were already observable before the crisis and that were amplified by the clashes between the US and China. The European Commission recommends diversifying supplies to mitigate risks, while preserving international competition, but defending the EU market against unfair trade practices. In Europe, major uncertainties in the field of international trade concern Brexit, the future of transatlantic trade ties after the presidential election in the US, the stability of the rules-based trade order under the World Trade Organization and the shift of institutional power towards East Asia surrounding the trade blocs of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the newly established Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. In view of China’s shift in main principles of action away from adopting existing international norms, the fragility of the liberal international order, and the ambiguous competition and co-operation relationship between the EU and China, it is more important than ever that EU member states follow a co-ordinated approach at the EU level in full unity to achieve the goal of ‘open strategic autonomy’. Small open European economies, such as Austria, should re-evaluate their trade dependencies and consider supporting partial near-shoring to neighbouring Central, East and Southeast Europe. Furthermore, it is recommended to the EU and its member states to step up investment with European value added, for instance in common health, rail transport and energy infrastructure in order to foster the EU’s long-run growth prospects and its green transition.
    Keywords: EU, China, COVID-19, pandemic, trade policy, value chains
    JEL: H53 F13 F21 L1
    Date: 2021–02
  4. By: Isa, Filzah Md; Muhammad, Nik Maheran Nik; Ahmad, Azizah; Noor, Shaista; Institute of Research, Asian
    Abstract: Women entrepreneur has gained utmost importance in the past few decades in Malaysia due to their significant contribution to the country's economic development. However, few business challenges create a constant obstruction for many women entrepreneurs such as lack of ICT knowledge, time constraint to learn ICT, lack of technological expertise, etc. The present study aims to identify the effect of ICT adoption on business performance and examine how ICT usage helped them handle operational business matters. The present study adopted the qualitative research strategy, and researchers interviewed ten (10) women entrepreneurs for this study. A semi-structured interview technique was applied, and six Malay and four Chinese entrepreneurs made the study population. The result highlights that Malay and Chinese entrepreneurs use ICT in their business operation such as warehousing system, purchasing system, HRM software and accounting system, purchase order system, production system, internal communication, and AutoCAD. The present study may support the prospective entrepreneurs in considering the ICT usage to embark on technology and innovation and provide inputs to policymakers to design a proper support system for Malaysian women entrepreneurs, particularly those new entrepreneurs who are mostly young and inexperienced.
    Date: 2021–02–09
  5. By: Agussani Agussani (University Of Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara); A. Akrim (University Of Muhammadiyah Sumatera Utara)
    Abstract: In the Indonesian market, excessive pressure faced by the local NGOs in their social cause oriented operating activities and this paper is majorly based on exploring those external factors that positively enhanced the social performance of such organizations within this developing nation. In most cases, the environmental-friendly practices are initiated by a company in order to become a more sustainable organization in the advanced competitors and customer market. This paper is based on online survey-based quantitative research where the 355 participants based valid outcomes are studied and evaluated through structural equation modeling statistical test implementation. According to this model results, external pressure caused a major favorable influence on the development of strategic sustainability orientation and sustainable entrepreneurship practice that motivate the organizational management to enhance their social performance within the Indonesian state. This data is informative for the Indonesian social workers, the business community and other related NGO's to consider the external environmental factors in their effective decision-making process. Also, the related field scholars can utilize this information in their discussion portion. No doubt, this is informative research, but still, there are some deficiencies within this paper like lack of psychological (interview), etc, which can be covered by the upcoming scholars.
    Keywords: Social Performance,External Positive Pressure,Orientation Dimensions,Sustainable Practices
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Chrisendo, Daniel; Siregar, Hermanto; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Structural transformation of agriculture typically involves a gradual increase of mean farm sizes and a reallocation of labor from agriculture to other sectors. Such structural transformation is often fostered through innovations in agriculture and newly emerging opportunities in manufacturing and services. Here, we use panel data from farm households in Indonesia to test and support the hypothesis that the recent oil palm boom contributes to structural transformation. Oil palm is capital-intensive but requires much less labor per hectare than traditional crops. Farmers who adopted oil palm increase their cropping area, meaning that some of the labor saved per hectare is used for expanding the farm. Average farm sizes increased in recent years. In addition, we observe a positive association between oil palm adoption and off-farm income, suggesting that some of the labor saved per hectare is also reallocated to non-agricultural activities. Oil palm adoption significantly increases the likelihood of households pursuing own non-farm businesses. However, oil palm adoption does not increase the likelihood of being employed in manufacturing or services, which is probably due to the limited non-farm labor demand in the local setting. Equitable and sustainable agricultural transformation requires new lucrative non-agricultural employment opportunities in rural areas.
    Keywords: Cross-country dataset,lower-middle income countries,risk preferences,smallholder farmers,time preferences
    JEL: O13 O14 Q12 Q15 R14
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Persada, Penerbit Pena Mr; Dufan, Chania
    Abstract: Pada awal tahun 2020 muncul virus yang menggemparkan dunia, virus ini menjadi wabah yang mematikan juataan umat manusia. Virus corona atau covid-19. Sebenarnya virus ini ditemukan pada akhir tahun 2019 yaitu pada bulan 31 Desember, di Wuhan China. Virus ini menyebar ke seluruh dunia termasuk Indonesia. Virus ini dapat menular dengan sangat mudah bisa lewat udara, cairan didalam mulut atau lendir yang berasal dari hidung. Penyebaran virus ini membuat panik seluruh warga dunia. Dengan penyebaran yang sangat cepat ini, hampir semua pemerintah dunia memberlakukan lockdown, dengan pemberlakukan lockdown pemerintah berharap hal tersebut dapat mencegah penyebaran virus covid-19. Referance Kurniawan, W. (2019). Islam dan Permasalahan Kesejahteraan Ekonomi. Jurnal Ilmiah Humanika, 2(2), 11-22. Kurniawan, W. (2020). Lanskap Keagamaan Indonesia. Pena Persada: Purwokerto Kurniawan, W. (2020). Agama, Pendidikan dan Kita. El-Markazi: Bengkulu
    Date: 2021–02–02
  8. By: Yuris Danilwan (Politeknik Adiguna Maritim Indonesia); Dewi Budhiartini Yuli Isnaini (Amir Hamzah University); Ikbar Pratama (Universitas Medan Area); Dirhamsyah Dirhamsyah (Politeknik Adiguna Maritim Indonesia)
    Abstract: Organizations have faced pressure from their stakeholders to adopt environmentally friendly business practices since the last few decades, which creates a major problem in front of their management to sustain their position in the highly competitive market. In order to retain its strategic image among the stakeholders' minds, there is a need to develop some green practices in its human resources department that boost its sustainability. In this paper, there is a brief description regarding how these green HRM bundles caused a major impact on environmental sustainable performance. Its independent variables are; green hiring, green training & involvement, and green performance management & compensation. While organizational citizenship behavior acts as a mediator between independent and dependent variables. An online survey-based quantitative data collection method is used where 402 participants' data is considered to apply the SPSS test i.e. structural equation modelling. The majority of the participants' results show that green performance management & compensation cause a major influence on organizational citizenship behavior and environmental sustainable performance. While green hiring has, the least impact and green training & involvement show the moderate outcome on the dependent and mediating variable. This study is an informative approach for the Indonesian healthcare sector and its management to make some efficient changes in its HR policies, and also this data will add value in the decision making process of this state policymakers and other research fellows. Indeed, this is important research, but there are also some limitations like lack of mixed research, and Indonesia state-based restricted research can affect the acceptability of this analysis. This gap can fulfill by upcoming scholars in their research journals.
    Keywords: Green Hiring,Green Training & Involvement,Green Performance Management & Compensation,Organizational Citizenship Behavior,Environmental Sustainable Performance
    Date: 2020
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Successful containment of COVID-19 and strong policy support have helped contain the health and economic fallout, and a strong recovery is underway. Growth in 2020 reached 2.9 percent, among the highest in the world. However, labor market conditions remain weak. Corporate balance sheets have worsened, potentially hampering private investment and job prospects. Banks entered the crisis in a stronger position than in previous years, but weaknesses remain. Vietnam’s economy remains heavily reliant on external trade and is vulnerable to trade tensions.
    Date: 2021–02–24
  10. By: Andry Alamsyah; Fariz Denada Sudrajat; Herry Irawan
    Abstract: Online property business or known as e-commerce is currently experiencing an increase in home sales. Indonesia's e-commerce property business has positive trending shown by the increasing sales of more than 500% from 2011 to 2015. A prediction of the property price is important to help investors or the public to have accurate information before buying property. One of the methods for prediction is a classification based on several distinctive property industry attributes, such as building size, land size, number of rooms, and location. Today, data is easily obtained, there are many open data from E-commerce sites. E-commerce contains information about homes and other properties advertised to sell. People also regularly visit the site to find the right property or to sell the property using price information which collectively available as open data. To predict the property sales, this research employed two different classification methods in Data Mining which are Decision Tree and k-NN classification. We compare which model classification is better to predict property price and their attributes. We use Indonesia's biggest property-based e-commerce site as our open data source, and choose location Bandung in our experiment. The accuracy result of the decision tree is 75% and KNN is 71%, other than that k-NN can explore more data patterns than the Decision Tree.
    Date: 2021–02
  11. By: Puspasari, Novita; Herwiyanti, Eliada; Pinasti, Margani; Institute of Research, Asian
    Abstract: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) has been a backbone for Indonesian economy over the years. This study aims to explore and gain an in-depth understanding of SMEs’ perceptions regarding tax imposed by the government. The study is a qualitative investigation in which nine in-depth interviews with SMEs were conducted based on the Zaltman Metaphor Elicitation Technique (ZMET). The findings reveal deep-seated perceptions in SMEs regarding to tax imposed on them. There are 24 elicited constructs which describe SMEs’ mental model of tax. The constructs are framed into four deep metaphors which reflect SMEs perceptions on tax: Distrust to the Government, Misclassification, Mistreatment and Disincentive. This study will contribute to provide suggestion to the government, particularly General Directorate of tax, that in order to give “stick” to SMEs, government may try to give “carrots” in SMEs tax cases. This study contributes to the use of ZMET as a data collecting method to examine issues that tend to be "sensitive". Previously, ZMET has been used widely in marketing research, however this research could prove that other topics of research could also use this method
    Date: 2021–02–09
  12. By: Vuving, Alexander
    Abstract: This chapter explores the architecture of civil-military relations in Communist Party-ruled Vietnam. Contrary to the dominant paradigm of civil-military relations in the West, civil-military relations in Vietnam follow a very different logic, that of the Leninist system. The relationship between the military and the party-state in Vietnam is characterized by mutual embeddedness. This is not a zero-sum game as the concept of civilian control implies. In the Leninist system, the military's politicization, political influence and involvement in politics are critical for the Communist Party's hegemony. The Party's absolute, direct, and comprehensive control of the military is the core of civil-military relations in the Leninist system. However, Party control is a reciprocal relationship that gives military leaders more say and more privileges than they would have under more democratic conditions. This reciprocity explains the system’s endurance as well as its internal stability. The Vietnam People's Army is deeply politicized and the political control of the military serves the interests of both the Party and the military leadership. Barring a major political reform in the Vietnam Communist Party itself, the Vietnam People's Army will remain more political than professional and commercial.
    Date: 2021–02–20
  13. By: Ho, Tung Manh
    Abstract: In this essay, I reviewed some of the early days of crowdfunding research in Vietnam and pointed out there is a lack of a theoretical framework for analyzing this phenomenon.
    Date: 2021–02–10
  14. By: Gregory Duffee; Peter Hördahl
    Abstract: We uncover a strong U-shape in bond financing by US firms. Firms with total debt in the range of $10 million to $100 million tend to use much less bond financing relative to loan financing than do firms with more or less total debt. There is no corresponding U-shape in less-developed Asian markets, while the advanced markets of Hong Kong SAR and Korea are in the middle. These patterns, and more generally the cross-firm variation in firms' use of bond financing relative to financing through loan facilities, are largely unrelated to either credit quality or monitoring effectiveness. This suggests that market segmentation is more likely. Finally, we find evidence of debt diversification by highly-leveraged firms.
    Keywords: corporate bonds, capital structure, firm financing, debt specialisation, debt diversification
    JEL: G30 G32
    Date: 2021–02
  15. By: Andry Alamsyah; Endang Sofyan; Tsana Hasti Nabila
    Abstract: In the context of modern marketing, Twitter is considered a communication platform to spread information. Many companies create and acquire several Twitter accounts to support and perform varieties of marketing mix activities. Initially, each accounts used to capture a specific market profile. Together, the accounts create a network of information that provide consumer to the information they need depends on their contextual utilization. From many accounts available, we have the fundamental question on how to measure the influence of each account in the market based not only on their relations but also on the effects of their postings. The magnitude of Influence (MOI) metric is adapted together with Influence Rank (IR) measurement of accounts in their social network neighborhood. We use social network analysis approach to analyze 65 accounts in the social network of an Indonesian mobile phone network operator, Telkomsel which involved in marketing communications mix activities through series of related tweets. Using social network provide the idea of the activity in building and maintaining relationships with the target audience. This paper shows the results of the most potential accounts based on the network structure and engagement. Based on this research, the more number of followers one account has, the more responsibility it has to generate the interaction from their followers in order to achieve the expected effectiveness. The focus of this paper is to determine the most potential accounts in the application of marketing communications mix in Twitter.
    Date: 2021–02
  16. By: Jing Yuan (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China); Yajing Dong (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China); Weijie Zhai (School of Statistics and Data Science, Nankai University, Tianjin, Tianjin 300071, China); Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA)
    Abstract: This paper studies the correlation and spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) among 10 countries in the Belt and Road (including 5 central countries: China, Russia, Singapore, France and Germany, and 5 peripheral countries: India, Japan, Korea, Greece and UK). We use a copula technique to analyze the correlation of the EPU and a mixed-frequency global VAR model to characterize the spillover effect of the EPU. We find that the correlation of the EPU among the 10 countries is very strong and the spillover effect of the EPU from the central countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant. As a result, for the harmonious and win-win development, the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU, because the stability of the EPU can greatly promote the economic development.
    Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; Copula Technique; Economic Policy Uncertainty; Global VAR; Spillover Effect.
    JEL: D80 C32 C45
    Date: 2021–02
  17. By: Andry Alamsyah; Maribella Syawiluna
    Abstract: Knowledge management is an important aspect of an organization, especially in the ICT industry. Having more control of it is essentials for the organization to stay competitive in the business. One way to assess the organization's knowledge capital is by measuring employee knowledge networks and their personal reputation in social media. Using this measurement, we see how employees build relationships around their peer networks or clients virtually. We are also able to see how knowledge networks support organizational performance. The research objective is to map knowledge network and reputation formulation in order to fully understand how knowledge flow and whether employee reputation has a higher degree of influence in the organization's knowledge network. We particularly develop formulas to measure knowledge networks and personal reputation based on their social media activities. As a case study, we pick an Indonesian ICT company that actively build their business around their employee peer knowledge outside the company. For the knowledge network, we perform data collection by conducting interviews. For reputation management, we collect data from several popular social media. We base our work on Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology. The result shows that employees' knowledge is directly proportional to their reputation, but there are different reputations level on different social media observed in this research.
    Date: 2021–02
  18. By: Soriano, Cheryll Ruth
    Abstract: This article examines and theorises the relationships across three distinct forms of labour brokerage emerging in the digital platform labour economy: platform intermediation, ‘skill-making’, and ‘re-outsourcing’. Drawing from a four-year digital ethnography on online freelancing and platform labour in the Philippines, one of the largest labour supplying countries globally, I pay special attention to how platform labour control emerges as a process that is constituted in the brokerage relationships at multiple scales between global capital, local capital, community and family units, and emerging organised networks of workers and influencers on social media. The article examines the materiality of platform labour and the local informal economy that give rise to these forms of brokerage. I also describe how brokerage processes set norms and standards in this largely unregulated sector, thereby playing a role in how labour mobility or precarity are made possible and organised. The article seeks to contribute to the knowledge about the digital work system involving a significant number of Filipinos by capturing the situated dialectical power relations of the global spread of platform-mediated labour management.
    Date: 2021–02–10
  19. By: Manuela Goretti; Lamin Y Leigh; Aleksandra Babii; Serhan Cevik; Stella Kaendera; Dirk V Muir; Sanaa Nadeem; Gonzalo Salinas
    Abstract: This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
    Keywords: Tourism;International tourism;Economic growth;Job creation;Tourism;Jobs;Diversification;COVID-19;Growth;Spillovers
    Date: 2021–02–19
  20. By: Ichsan Anwary (Lambung Mangkurat University); Yahya Ahmad Zein (Borneo Tarakan University)
    Abstract: Regulations and policies regarding environment and green and environment friendly innovations play an important role in the reduction in pollution and to make the environment clean to live a better life. In this regard, people play a critical part by following these policies and regulations and by promoting the green innovations. The current study has been designed with the aim to find out and investigate the impact of environmental regulations, green innovation, and social distribution on the environmental sustainability of ASEAN countries. Therefore, the data for the study has been gathered from ASEAN countries covering the period of 29 years. The accuracy of the results obtained by the analysis of data collection has been ensured by the collection of data from World Bank Development Indicators and Global Economy. Various tests and techniques have been applied on the collected data such as panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, FMOLS coefficient estimation and Granger Casualty test. The result obtained by the analysis indicated that all the independent (environmental regulations, green innovation, and social distribution) and control variables (per capita income and human development) have significant impact on environmental sustainability. Moreover, the researcher also found the casual relationships between various variables of the study.
    Keywords: Environmental Regulations,Green Innovation,Social Distribution,Environmental Sustainability,ASEAN Countries
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Montshioa, Keitumetse; Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
    Abstract: This study makes use of the Extreme Value Theory, based on the Generalised Pareto Distribution and the Generalised Extreme Value Distribution, to construct efficient portfolios during periods of turmoil. The portfolios are constructed by combining different assets constituted by their positions in emerging and developed stock markets, with the aim of identifying which assets combinations provide optimal portfolio allocations during turmoil periods. For the developed stock markets, the study uses the French CAC 40, the Canadian S&P/TSX, the United Kingdom FTSE 100, the Japanese NIKKEI 225 and the United States S&P500 indices and returns. Five emerging stock markets indices are used, namely, the Brazilian BOVESPA, the Chinese SHCOMP the Indian S&P BSE SENEX, Indonesian JSI and the Turkish BIST 100. The data sample spans from August 1997 to August 2019 and include major economic and financial crises. Our findings show that for the different portfolios constructed, the estimated shape, location, and scale parameters differ depending on the Extreme Value Theory distribution under investigation. Moreover, based on the Generalised Pareto Distribution and the Generalised Extreme Value Distribution for portfolio optimisation, the results of the study show that during extreme conditions investors are prone to allocate more weight to developed stock market assets than to emerging markets. This confirms that developed economies are safe havens, especially during extreme market conditions. Moreover, the GPD is superior as it provides maximum risk-reward ratios.
    Keywords: asset allocation, extreme value, developing economies, emerging markets
    JEL: C51 G11 G15
    Date: 2021–02–23
  22. By: Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; CEPR; NBER); Taojun Xie (National University of Singapore - Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Asia Competitiveness Institute)
    Abstract: The recent rise of digital currencies opens the door to their use in parallel alongside official currencies (“dollar†) for pricing and transactions. We construct a simple New Keynesian framework with parallel currencies as pricing units and sticky prices. Relative prices become a state variable. Exchange rate shocks can arise even without other sources of uncertainty. A one-time exchange rate appreciation for a parallel currency leads to persistent redistribution towards the dollar sector and dollar inflation. The share of the non-dollar sector increases when prices in the dollar sector become less sticky and when firms can choose the pricing currency.
    Keywords: Private money, cryptocurrency, digital currency, currency choice, monetary policy
    JEL: E52 E30
    Date: 2020

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