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on South East Asia |
| By: | Rhapsagita Malist Pamasiwi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Novrima Rizki Arsyani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to review Indonesia’s significant progresses in developing its capacity in providing technical assistance within the framework of South-South Cooperation (SSC). The year 2019 had witnessed some advancements in the management of development cooperation towards the establishment of the future Indonesian Agency for International Development (Indonesian AID). These developments are reflected from the allocation of endowment fund as a source funding, series of studies conducted to prepare the establishment of Indonesian AID, the enactment of regulatory frameworks for the agency, and finally the launching of the Lembaga Dana Kerja Sama Pembangunan Internasional (LDKPI) or the Indonesian AID in October 18, 2019. Aside from reviewing those progresses, this paper also offers some proposals regarding measures and steps to undertake in order to achieve the agency’s main purpose and objectives. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia — South-South Cooperation — Indonesian AID — Regulatory Framework |
| JEL: | F50 H11 O19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202050&r=all |
| By: | Alin Halimatussadiah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Atiqah Amanda Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Rafika Farah Maulia (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesian Government has set an ambitious target to achieve 23 percent of renewable energy share in primary energy mix as well as in term of power sector by 2025. This target is then realized by committing a plan to build 56.4 GW additional power generation until 2028 as stated in the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2019–2028. However, the deployment of RE power plant seems to be threatened due to untoward pricing policy which is considerably lower than the generation cost of RE-based electricity, resulting in the increase of possibility of future RE projects become unfeasible. Using 242 RE projects documented in 2019–2018 RUPTL, this study aims to examine feasibility of future projects under BPP price and identify other factors which could possibly increase project’s viability. The scope of this study includes several technologies such as wind, solar, hydro, mini hydro, biomass, and biogas. Financial model was employed to estimate Net Present Value (NPV) of the project as feasibility indicator. Data for project’s cost structure and financial assumption is obtained by literature review, survey and focus group discussion (FGD) to RE developers. The result shows that only less than 50 percent of the samples are feasible, accounting for only 43 per cent by number of projects (103 out of 242 projects) and 42 per cent by capacity (2,452 out of 5,888 MW). Hydro power becomes RE technologies with the highest feasibility followed by biomass. Projects located in Bangka Belitung, Gorontalo, East Kalimantan, Maluku, and North Sulawesi are all feasible, while of which in main islands particularly Java Island are mostly unfeasible due to the lower tariff. In addition to the low feasibility rate, there are several cost components which are considered as Indonesia specific costs such as local content, land acquisition cost, transmission infrastructure cost, and regional adjustment for project location which result in higher project’s cost. Finally, it is important for the government to formulate a set of incentive policy for alleviating unfeasible RE projects. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy — project feasibility — power plant — Indonesia |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 O22 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202052&r=all |
| By: | Riyanto (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Chaikal Nuryakin (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Setya Agung Riyadi (Institute for Economic and Social Research Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Natanael Waraney Gerald Massie (Institute for Economic and Social Research Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | With the Electrified Vehicles (EVs) ventures being in the early stage, the cost-benefit analysis of the vehicles is key towards capturing the Indonesian market. As consumers, however, pricing may not only be the costs they consider; they also consider the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the cars they purchase. With that regard, this study discusses the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the EV in the Indonesian context, including calculations for HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle), PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle), and BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle), as well as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles for comparisons. Specifically, this study aims to: (i) identify the monetary factors which affects total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia, (ii) construct a TCO model and calculate the value of total cost of ownership of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia, and (iii) compare the value of total cost of ownership of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia related to the relevant switching cost between EVs and ICE. Our findings suggest that generally, in Indonesia, higher usage and/or length of ownership of EVs lead to more competitive TCO compared to ICE. We also explore a comprehensive number of scenarios (e.g., total annual mileage, years of ownership, price, fuel prices, and cost incentives) in which the TCO of EV maximizes Indonesian consumer welfare. |
| Keywords: | electrified vehicle — incentives — total cost of ownership — Indonesia |
| JEL: | C63 L62 O14 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202043&r=all |
| By: | Kiki Verico (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper showed that Indonesia’s output-gap has been improving since 2007 until the global pandemic hit Indonesia in 2020. The ultimate indicator for this improvement was the constant decrease in open unemployment. Okun’s Law calculation proved that Indonesia’s actual economic growth was higher than minimum economic growth to generate jobs. This paper also confirmed the Phillips Curve phenomenon that actual inflation was higher than expected inflation. Indonesia’s average economic growth from 2007–2019 has increased above its natural long-run economic growth level. The global pandemic decreased Indonesia’s economic growth and increased its open unemployment rate in 2020. Indonesia’s economy needs an adjustment which depends on the pandemic containment. This adjustment will be affecting Indonesia’s scenario in avoiding the Middle-Income Trap before 2040 regarding the end of the demographic bonus era. This paper attempts to estimate the impact of the global pandemic on the economy, referring to the Spanish Flu’s impact on the global trade openness and how Indonesia adjusts its economy in the short-run and navigates its economic transformation in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | Output-Gap — Global Pandemic Impact — Middle-Income Trap — Open-Unemployment — Indonesia |
| JEL: | O47 G01 E64 J60 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202157&r=all |
| By: | Koh, Sin Yee; Zhao, Yimin; Shin, Hyun Bang |
| Abstract: | There is an established urban studies literature on the discursive politics of green urbanism, especially with regards to eco-cities and (mega) greenfield developments. However, less attention has been paid to the micropolitics of cross-border transplantation of green urbanism ideas and practices, especially within Asia. This paper examines the case of Forest City, a mainland Chinese developer-led mega greenfield project in the Iskandar Malaysia special economic corridor, to be built on four reclaimed islands. Based on observations, in-depths interviews with local stakeholders and document analysis, we analyse the different ways in which green urbanism has been used by the local state and the developer as an apparatus for speculative city-making. On the one hand, the state seeks to position Iskandar Malaysia as greener than its global competitors through the development of a homegrown "low carbon society" green accreditation system. On the other hand, the (selectively) "green and smart" Forest city consolidates the developer's corporate brand image and marketing aesthetics at the cost of local residents' living environment. Attention to such entangled micropolitics of speculative green urbanism contextualises different stakeholders' rationales and practices and contributes to critical reflections on the entanglement of green urbanism and speculative urbanisation. |
| Keywords: | green urbanism; speculative urbanization; property development; micropolitcs; Iskandar Malaysia; global China; IC3/100155 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108216&r=all |
| By: | Sulistiadi Dono Iskandar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Despite many advantages of women’s higher role in literature, GoI seems to lack commitment in addressing women empowerment issues as their priority agenda. Having more empowered women in our society becomes more salient as several studies suggest that it will lead to better financial outcomes such as saving in the household. In the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, where one could lose their source of income easily due to social restriction, having a society with a higher saving level is essential. By exploiting three waves (2000, 2007, 2014) of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data and employing Fixed-Effect panel data analysis, this study found that a limited increase in the role of a wife in the household’s financial decision-making process will lead to a higher level of saving outcome, thus provide more resilience society toward the pandemic situation. |
| Keywords: | household savings — women’s bargaining power — intra-household decision-making — COVID-19 — Indonesia |
| JEL: | D13 D14 J16 C70 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202055&r=all |
| By: | Aditya Alta (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, academic productivity as defined by number of papers published has been the preoccupation of Indonesian research policymakers. A number of policies have been introduced, the most prominent of which is assigning score to number of publications and citations through SINTA. These initiatives, however, have often ignored the complex and heavily bureaucratized Indonesian research and higher education sector. Recently, SINTA score has also perversely incentivized some researchers to illegally increase their Scopus score. This paper is a preliminary attempt at assessing policy alternatives to address the issue of low number of academic publications, asking if there are viable or even better policies than the current point system. Incorporating Indonesia’s academic demography into our analysis, we find that giving monetary rewards for every published paper is the best policy option for lower-rank academics to “push” them into research. On the other hand, point rewards are most effective for upper-rank academics since they only need to be “nudged” into research activities. We also offer several recommendations about other policy alternatives (reforming research grants regime, providing international scholarships, and research collaboration) and the importance of detection and monitoring system to prevent the alternatives from becoming perverse incentives. |
| Keywords: | academic productivity — academic publication — research policy — SINTA — Scopus |
| JEL: | I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202051&r=all |
| By: | Kiki Verico (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia and Australia had agreed to seal the deal for a bilateral economic agreement entitled Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA CEPA). After about ten years since both countries committed to having a bilateral agreement, IA CEPA had entered into force on July 5th, 2020. This paper has two aims. Firstly, assessing potential trade and long-run investment relations with the combination of RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) and CMSA (Constant Market Share Analysis) with ToT (Terms of Trade) and Net Export (NX) as the filter. Secondly, measuring the potential impacts from tariff rate elimination utilizing the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. This paper finds that both countries have complementarity relations that Indonesia can gain to improve manufacturing productivity, and Australia can benefit from sunrise to sunset relations. This paper proves that CEPA matches their need to increase their economic benefits, revealed that they could share mutual benefits and sustainable economic relations. |
| Keywords: | bilateral country studies — trade policy — CGE GTAP — FDI analysis — Indonesia Australia |
| JEL: | D58 F14 F21 O24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202056&r=all |
| By: | Riyanto (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia); Natanael W. G. Massie (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia); Djoni Hartono (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia); Mohamad D. Revindo (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, Graduate School of Global and Strategic Studies, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia); Usman (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia); Setya A. Riyadi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia); Nanda Puspita (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia); Uka Wikarya (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Tourism has important contribution towards Indonesia’s economy and the role tends to increase thorugh time. However, this study aims to delve deeper into how tourism can impact on poverty reduction and equal income distribution. The study employs Miyazawa’s input-output, econometrics, and micro simulation models. The results of the simulation show that without tourism activity, Indonesia’s poverty rate in 2014, 2015, and 2016 is expected to be 4% higher than the actuality. Tourism also contributes to reducing the depth of poverty from 2.04 to 1.21, as well as lessening the severity of poverty from 0.37 to 0.29 in 2016. This result is supported by econometric analysis showing that regions with tourism as a main economic activity have 1.5% to 3.4% lower poverty rate than those without. Further, domestic tourism activity offers a bigger contribution towards the lower income group when compared to their international counterparts. The implication of the findings towards policy making and tourism businesses is discussed. |
| Keywords: | Tourism — Poverty Alleviation — Income Distribution — Indonesia |
| JEL: | D63 I32 L83 R11 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202047&r=all |
| By: | Ordonez, Jose Antonio; Eckstein, Johannes |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the processes and assumptions underlying the development of Indonesia's NDC and its revision in 2020. The assumptions underlying the related energy sector documents (KEN, RUEN, RUKN, RUPTL) and their relationships are also assessed. The study is completed by giving a snapshot of the current state of discussion around constraints related to renewable energy. The unconditional target of Indonesia's NDC foresees a reduction of GHG emissions of 29% relative to a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario (41% conditional to international support). It specifies that electricity generation shall reduce emissions by 18.8% relative to BAU. The overall target of a 29% and 41% have been set by a non-public process. The sectoral shares of GHG reductions are determined by the responsible ministries (ESDM in case of the energy sector), with modelling performed by academic institutions (e.g. BTI for energy). This modelling is partly based on existing plans of the energy sector. Data underlying this modelling is not public, but underlying socio-economic assumptions suggest that the BAU scenario overestimates emissions. The NDC has no influence on planning in the energy sector but should be considered a by-product of existing planning documents. The process underlying the current revision is repeated for the current revision of the NDC and likely also for creation of the LTS. The ambition under the revised NDC will not be increased. The share of renewable energy in the NDC follows from a cascade of energy planning documents (KEN, RUEN, RUKN, RUPTL), which pass the target from the most overarching energy plans to the NDC. Arguably the most important target related to renewable energy planning in Indonesia set down by the countries' energy strategy KEN, to reach 23% renewable energy in each sector in total primary energy supply in 2025. The assumptions underlying this target are not known and can therefore not be contested. The national energy plan RUEN makes this target more specific in terms of technology. The power sector plan by the ministry of energy RUKN and the power sector plan by the utility RUPTL all consider 23% renewable energy target. Besides that, these plans remain largely disconnected from each other. [...] |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s142020&r=all |
| By: | Bernardus Bayu Ryanto Prakoso Putro (Accounting Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Christine Tjen (Accounting Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study consists of qualitative research and quantitative research. This study conducts qualitative research namely interviews with Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) related to the tax inclusion programs and perceptions of DGT regarding public tax knowledge and public tax education. According to DGT, public tax knowledge is still lacking. In terms of tax education, it said that tax education is still not structured. To overcome this problem, DGT implements a tax inclusion program for the next 30-45 years. In addition to qualitative research, this study also conducts quantitative research, by using questionnaire survey methods on students in Indonesia with the aim of knowing whether or not there is a significant difference related to the level of tax knowledge, student perceptions regarding the importance of tax education, and student perceptions regarding the need for tax education among students who have received tax education and students who have not received tax education. The result shows that there is a significant difference between students who have received tax education and students who have not received tax education in terms of the level of tax knowledge. Related to the perception regarding the need for tax education, there is a significant difference between students who have received tax education and have not received tax education. |
| Keywords: | tax education — tax knowledge — tax perceptions — tax inclusion |
| JEL: | A22 H20 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202044&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Cambodia has made significant progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to years of impressive economic growth and reforms. Income growth has outpaced peers, poverty has declined, and the economy has begun to gradually diversify. At the same time, elevated financial sector vulnerabilities, development spending needs, and governance weaknesses pose challenges for further advancing sustainable growth and development. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;Revenue administration;External debt;Credit;Fiscal policy;ISCR,CR,authority,preliminary budget,spending |
| Date: | 2018–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2018/369&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngo To Nhien (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition) |
| Abstract: | This policy note examines the rationale for enacting a Renewable Energy Law in Vietnam, and to use an Auction mechanism to replace the Feed In Tariff as the main instrument to develop renewable energy sources electricity production. |
| Date: | 2019–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-03088132&r=all |
| By: | Chaikal Nuryakin (Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat (LPEM), Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Indonesia); Nandaru Annabil Gumelar; Muhammad Dhiya Ul-Haq; Riefhano Patonangi; Andhika Putra Pratama |
| Abstract: | This study serves as an example of how Indonesia can improve its official data by using big data. In this case, we compare village potential data (PODES) published by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) with Google Places API data and ministerial data. We use the number of hospitals, high schools, and public health centers within Jakarta province as the variables. The result shows that despite counting for the same thing, there are discrepancies between all three sources with a varying margin for each variable. We discuss our findings and give suggestions in the hope of improving official data in Indonesia, which could be helped by utilizing big data as this study exemplified. |
| Keywords: | official statistics — big data — official data |
| JEL: | C8 D8 E2 R1 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202045&r=all |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Department of Economics, Universitas Indonesia and LPEM-FEBUI) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of political competition on district government performance in Indonesia. This study uses a new database that covers 427 districts in Indonesia, from 2000 to 2013. Political competition is measured using the Herfindahl Hirschman Concentration Index for the district parliament election. This variable is potentially endogenous, because political competition is likely to be non-random and correlated with unobservable variables. To solve this problem, I use the lag of the average political competition within the same province and the political competition from the 1955 general election, as instrumental variables for political competition. The degree of political competition has been found to boost real Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) per capita and RGDP growth by 3.24% and 1.11%, respectively . This study also find that stiffer political competition is associated with higher public spending (e.g. infrastructure spending) and pro-business policies. |
| Keywords: | Political Competition — Regional Government — Indonesia — Economic Performance |
| JEL: | D78 H71 H72 O1 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202046&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Technical Assistance report highlights institutional weaknesses that need to be addressed and proposes eight priority reform measures to strengthen the public investment management framework in the Philippines. This report reviews public investment management practices in the Philippines, using the IMF’s Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) methodology. The PIMA findings could guide the upcoming Public Expenditure Review that is likely to be completed with the support of the World Bank. The PIMA provides a broad overview of institutional strengths and weaknesses along the public investment cycle. Strengthening public investment management in the Philippines would help maximize the return from the infrastructure investment in the coming years. While the public investment management institutions in the Philippines are generally comparable to emerging market economies, there is scope to improve performance. Standard methodologies for maintenance planning and costing of infrastructure assets exist for certain types of assets, and the same practice should be extended to other sectors. It would also be beneficial to establish a central monitoring mechanism to ensure the routine maintenance of major infrastructure assets. |
| Keywords: | Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP);Public investment spending;Infrastructure;Budget planning and preparation;Capital spending;ISCR,CR,public investment,investment project,nonfinancial asset,annual budget,General government investment |
| Date: | 2019–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/137&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition) |
| Abstract: | In 2016, Vietnam planned to build a fleet of new coal-fired power plants, expanding capacity to 54.5 GW in 2030, from 13.1 GW in 2015. Three years later, the risk of stranded assets not only made this plan sub-optimal, it also made it infeasible because investors are looking elsewhere. |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02263622&r=all |
| By: | Eckstein, Johannes; Ordonez, Jose Antonio; Wachsmuth, Jakob |
| Abstract: | The unconditional target of Indonesia's NDC foresees a reduction of GHG emissions of 29% relative to a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, to reach 2034 MtCO2eq in 2030. It further specifies that the energy sector shall take a share of 37.6% of this mitigation effort to reduce emissions by 18.8% relative to BAU, reaching 1355 MtCO2eq emissions in 2030. This study analyses how falling cost projections of renewable energy technologies (solar PV and wind energy) could inform energy sector and climate change mitigation plans of Indonesia.We show that cost projections valid for Indonesia for renewable energies have dramatically fallen over the past years. Costs projected for 2030 a couple of years ago are well undercut by more recent projections for 2030. Recent cost projections for 2030 for wind energy are 31% lower than projections dating from 2015, solar PV cost projections have fallen by 49% on average. If falling costs for renewables are considered, the renewable capacities given in RUEN (the National Energy Master Plan) could be revised at constant investments. The overall renewable energy capacity given in RUEN for 2030 could be increased from 70 GW to 85 GW. Solar PV would become the dominant source of renewable energy, wind energy would slightly surpass geothermal power generation. This increase in renewable capacities could inform the revision of Indonesia's NDC. If falling cost projections of renewables are considered, the unconditional target could be reduced from 2034 MtCO2eq to 2005 MtCO2eq at constant costs. This corresponds an increase from 29% to 30.1% reduction and presents a 9.1% increase in the ambition of the energy sector. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s132020&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Banks & Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Public & Municipal Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Rural Finance |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33630&r=all |
| By: | Aditya Alta (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Development aid always sends a message about development problem(s) that it wishes to solve. Using discourse analysis and interviews, this paper attempts to clarify which problem(s) Indonesia wants to address with its South-South and triangular cooperation and finds a lack of them. Instead, messages found in the communication of Indonesia’s aid are diplomatic, supported by the principles of demand-driven, solidarity, and ownership. The lack of indication of development objects and expected aid quality combined with an emphasis on these principles may lead policymakers and aid practitioners to prioritize the maintenance of good relationships with recipients and donor partners over actual development impact. This paper illustrates this tendency through the case of Strengthening Gender Mainstreaming (SGM), a triangular program conducted with USAID and Fiji. Despite drastic change in design and a brief tension among the stakeholders, SGM was “successfully” conducted. Vague messaging on program goals contributed to this “success” as preservation of good relationships and attainment of direct diplomatic objectives were more important. Taking the new regulations on business process into account, the paper concludes with policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | discourse analysis — development aid — South-South cooperation — triangular cooperation — Indonesia |
| JEL: | F50 O22 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202049&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economy is expected to gain steam albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previously envisaged but faces greater downside risks including from the crisis in Rakhine state. The country’s long-term prospects remain strong, supported by a growing demographic dividend, a competitive labor force and its strategic location. The discussions recommend that successful implementation of the second wave of reforms in the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan with a focus on peace, stability and good governance will help sustain the growth take-off and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Financial regulations and supervision should be strengthened with a view to ensuring financial stability and deepening, while forming contingency plans to address systemic banking risks, and strengthening the resolution framework. Fiscal policy should be directed towards SDG-related spending, while lowering Central Bank of Myanmar financing and ensuring debt sustainability. The business environment is expected to benefit from upgraded infrastructure, access to finance, and strengthening of the overall governance framework. |
| Keywords: | External debt;Public debt;Banking;External sector statistics;Monetary operations;ISCR,CR,FDI project approval,deposit auction rate,capital goods import,inflation rate.,rate |
| Date: | 2019–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/100&r=all |
| By: | Eckstein, Johannes; Kurdziel, Marie-Jeanne; Castro, Leonardo Nascimento; Ordonez, Jose Antonio |
| Abstract: | This study builds on three case studies in Argentina, Indonesia and Mexico which analyse the implications of falling costs for renewable energy systems on the countries' energy sector planning and climate policy. Each case study consists of two country specific reports. The first report analyses how falling costs of renewable energy could impact country specific power sector development. The second report analyses the process of climate and renewable energy target setting, as well as the prevalent narrative around renewable energy integration. Finally, the present report provides a cross-country synthesis of all case studies, providing insights into the question of how falling costs of renewable energy systems might support the achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement. Globally falling cost figures for solar PV and wind energy do not naturally translate into increased ambition in planning. The integration of these technologies to the energy system still face substantial barriers in our case study countries: The integration of higher shares of renewable energy goes along with investments into transmission and distribution network modernisation, network expansion and interconnections between power grids. Though an important element, falling costs for renewable energy projects alone do not necessarily translate into overall reduced power system costs. While globally falling costs for wind and solar PV are indicative for learning curve effects in the manufacturing of these technologies, the LCOE of renewable projects is highly sensitive to financing costs. These are largely determined by the local political and regulatory framework and remain high in our case countries, representing a barrier. We find that a number of regulatory and administrative barriers hinder higher integration of solar PV and wind. Frequently changing regulations and ill-designed support schemes often prevail over welldesigned renewable energy auction schemes that are followed over several years. We find the political economy fossil fuels to be pivotal in the energy sector and climate planning and target setting processes. Fossil fuel endowments and a long history of natural resource exploitation lead to strong vested interests towards sustaining the use of fossil fuels to satisfy a growing electricity demand. [...] |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s172020&r=all |
| By: | Parisa Kamali |
| Abstract: | In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two. |
| Keywords: | Exports;Trade facilitation;Price indexes;Tariffs;Technology;WP,fixed cost,appendix E |
| Date: | 2019–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/302&r=all |
| By: | Eckstein, Johannes; Ordonez, Jose Antonio; Wachsmuth, Jakob |
| Abstract: | The unconditional target of Mexico's NDC foresees a reduction of GHG emissions of 22% relative to a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, to reach 762 MtCO2eq in 2030. It further specifies that specifies that electricity generation shall take a share of 30% of this mitigation effort to reduce emissions by 31.4% relative to BAU, reaching 139 MtCO2eq in 2030. This study analyses how falling cost projections of renewable energy technologies (solar PV and wind energy) could inform energy sector and climate change mitigation plans of Indonesia. We show that cost projections valid for Mexico for renewables have dramatically fallen over the past years. Costs projected for 2030 a couple of years ago are well undercut by more recent projections for 2030. Recent cost projections for 2030 for wind energy are 77% lower than projections dating from 2015, solar PV cost projections have fallen by 74% on average. If falling costs for renewables are considered, the renewable capacities given in PRODESEN (the national power sector plan) could be revised at constant investments. The overall renewable energy capacity given in PRODESEN for 2030 could be increased from 37 GW to 52 GW. This increase in renewable capacities could inform the revision of Mexico's NDC. If falling cost projections of renewable energies are considered, the unconditional target could be reduced from 762 MtCO2eq to 747 MtCO2eq at constant costs. This corresponds an increase from 22% to 23.5% reduction and presents a 23.4% increase in the ambition of the power sector. Further Reading In a companion paper, Eckstein et al. (2020a) discuss the processes and assumptions underlying the current revision of the NDC in Mexico. Based on Interviews, they discuss the roles of the different institutions responsible for energy and climate mitigation plans, their policy and planning instruments and the relationship between these. Within the same project, the team of authors has written two more studies of the same structure for Indonesia (Eckstein et al. 2020b, Ordonez and Eckstein 2020) and Argentina (Nascimento et al.2020, Kurdziel et al.2020). |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s152020&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Xiaohu (Fudan University); Xiao, Weilin (Zhejiang University); Yu, Jun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This paper derives asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in local to unity processes with errors being fractional Gaussian noises with the Hurst parameter H. It is shown that the estimator is consistent when H ∈ (0, 1). Moreover, the rate of convergence is n when H ∈ [0.5, 1). The rate of convergence is n2H when H ∈ (0, 0.5). Furthermore, the limit distribution of the centered least squares estimator depends on H. When H = 0.5, the limit distribution is the same as that obtained in Phillips (1987a) for the local to unity model with errors for which the standard functional central theorem is applicable. When H > 0.5 or when H |
| Keywords: | Least squares; Local to unity; Fractional Brownian motion; Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process |
| JEL: | C22 |
| Date: | 2020–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2020_027&r=all |
| By: | Yusuf Sofiyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Atiqah Amanda Siregar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this study is to provide and to compare a detailed statistical overview of commuting patterns, spatial commuting flows, and travel-to-work behavior of workers who work and live reside within the Jakarta Metropolitan Area (JMA). The descriptive analysis is based on the results of two cross-sectional JMA Commuting Surveys, which conducted by the Indonesia Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2014 and 2019. By comparing the results of two surveys, we find that the commuting indicators have been decreased, except for the travel cost. The average commuting distance and the commuting time decrease by 5,16 percent and 11,6 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the average travel cost rises by 21,6 percent. Among 169 possible origin-destination sets, a commute route from Depok to South Jakarta has been consistently become the largest commuting flows during the last five years. Respondents who live in Jakarta subregions and commute by private vehicles tend to have a lower willingness to shift to public transport than those from other cities. In terms of the use of non-privately owned vehicles, most of the commuter respondents switch from non-dedicated lane buses to the online-ride hailing services as the travel reliability of certain public transport services within the JMA has been reduced during the period of 2014-2019. Our findings also emphasize the important role of online-ride hailing services in providing better opportunities, particularly for female commuters, to access job locations. |
| Keywords: | commuting — transport mode — travel to work — travel behaviour — Jakarta metropolitan area |
| JEL: | R40 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202054&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Xintong; Flores, Carlos A.; Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso |
| Abstract: | We analyze the short- and long-term effects of the U.S. Vietnam-era military service on veterans' health outcomes using a restricted version of the National Health Interview Survey 1974-2013 and employing the draft lotteries as an instrumental variable (IV). We start by assessing whether the draft lotteries, which have been used as an IV in prior literature, satisfy the exclusion restriction by placing bounds on its net or direct effect on the health outcomes of individuals who are nonveterans regardless of their draft eligibility (the "never takers"). Since we do not find evidence against the validity of the IV, we assume its validity in conducting inference on the health effects of military service for individuals who comply with the draft-lotteries assignment (the "compliers"), as well as for those who volunteer for enlistment (the "always takers"). The causal analysis for volunteers, who represent over 75% of veterans, is novel in this literature that typically focuses on the compliers. Since the effect for volunteers is not point-identified, we employ bounds that rely on a mild mean weak monotonicity assumption. We examine a large array of health outcomes and behaviors, including mortality, up to 40 years after the end of the Vietnam War. We do not find consistent evidence of detrimental health effects on compliers, in line with prior literature. For volunteers, however, we document that their estimated bounds show statistically significant detrimental health effects that appear 20 years after the end of the conflict. As a group, veterans experience similar statistically significant detrimental health effects from military service. These findings have implications for policies regarding compensation and health care of veterans after service. |
| Keywords: | Veteran health,Treatment effects,Bounds,Instrumental variables |
| JEL: | I12 C31 C36 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:764&r=all |
| By: | Federico S. Mandelman |
| Abstract: | This article uses international evidence to argue that we still have limited knowledge about the efficacy of widely used preventive actions, such as social distancing and face masks, in containing the spread of the novel COVID-19 virus. I document three puzzles. One, Peru enacted unprecedented lockdowns early in the pandemic, which led to a record contraction in economic activity. The country’s residents also adopted near-universal face mask usage. None of these actions, however, prevented Peru from experiencing the world’s highest per capita mortality rate from the virus. Second, southeast Asian countries practically did not register cases despite being closely interconnected to the source of the virus and adopting rather lax viruscontainment policies. Third, sub-Saharan African countries were largely spared from the virus, despite being considered very high-risk countries at the onset of the pandemic. I also discuss some emerging hypotheses that could explain these puzzles. Rather than rebuffing proven preventive actions like social distancing and face mask usage, this article highlights the limited knowledge we still have on this novel disease. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E19 I19 |
| Date: | 2020–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:a00001:89438&r=all |
| By: | Andhika Putra Pratama (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Muhammad Halley Yudhistira (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Transport development has been widely recognized as one of the major drivers in shaping urban forms. While recent literature has documented the urban-land use effect of transport networks between cities, little is known about the effect within cities. Using the Global Human Layer Settlement (GHSL) data provided by European Commission Joint-Project, this paper aims to find any causation between highway expansion and urban sprawl within the Jakarta Metropolitan Area, one of the most urbanized areas in the developing countries. Employing historical transport infrastructures as instruments, the result shows that areas experiencing the most improvement in highways access are converging slower than those with small improvement. This paper adds a piece of enticing evidence for urban economics literature that highway expansion may not always lead to a sprawling development of urban areas, but it can hamper its growth into a more compact urban form. Our results also confirm the existence of transport-led urban expansion in the JMA over the last three decades. |
| Keywords: | urban development — urban expansion — urban sprawl — transport access |
| JEL: | O18 P25 R14 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202053&r=all |
| By: | Paul Jackson (National University of Singapore); Victor Ortego-Marti (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Abstract: | We integrate the SIR epidemiology model into a search and matching framework with skill loss during unemployment. As infections spread, fewer jobs are created, skills deteriorate and TFP declines. The equilibrium is not efficient due to infection and skill composition externalities. Job creation increases infections due to increased interactions among workers. However, lower job creation decreases TFP due to skill loss. A three-month lockdown causes a 0.56% decline in TFP, i.e. nearly 50% of productivity losses in past recessions. We study the efficient allocation given the trade-off between both externalities and show that quantitatively the skill composition externality is sizable. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Skill loss; TFP; Search and matching; Unemployment; Pandemics |
| JEL: | E24 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202104&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); an Ha Truong (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition); Hoang Anh Tran (VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition) |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-03059625&r=all |