|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Dorothee Bühler; Rasadhika Sharma; Wiebke Stein |
| Abstract: | The Big Five model is widely used to measure and analyse personality traits in developed countries. However, there exist concerns regarding its validity in developing countries. We use a novel data set on personality traits from rural Thailand and Vietnam on around 4,000 individuals to test the universality of the model. We find that the measures demonstrate internal and external validity, and, that the analysis reveals a five factor structure similar to the Big Five model. In regard to stability of traits, we observe significant differences over time though the magnitude of differences is low. Also, gender and education influence the stability. We further test for acquiescence bias in our sample. While we find evidence for acquiescence bias, our results remain robust to its effect. We conclude that it is possible to employ the Big Five model to examine personality traits in rural Southeast Asia. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Education, Vietnam, Survey data, Probit regression |
| JEL: | D91 O1 R2 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tvs:wpaper:wp-021&r=all |
| By: | Zhuldyz Ashikbayeva; Marei Fürstenberg; Timo Kapelari; Albert Pierres; Stephan Thies |
| Abstract: | This thesis studies the impacts of flooding on income and expenditures of rural households in Northeast Thailand. It explores and compares shock coping strategies and identifies household level differences in flood resilience. Drawing on unique household panel data collected between 2007 and 2016, we exploit random spatio-temporal variation in flood intensities on the village level to identify the causal impacts of flooding on households. Two objective measures for flood intensities are derived from satellite data and employed in the analysis. Both proposed measures rely on the percentage area inundated in the surrounding of a village, but the second measure is standardized and expressed in comparison to the median village level flood exposure. We find that household incomes are negatively affected by floods. However, our results suggest that rather than absolute levels of flooding, deviations from median flood exposure are driving negative effects on households. This indicates a certain degree of adaptation to floods. Household expenditures for health and especially food rise in the aftermath of flooding. Lastly, we find that above primary school education helps to completely offset potential negative effects of flooding. |
| Keywords: | Flooding, Household level effects, Southeast Asia, TVSEP |
| JEL: | Q54 D10 I10 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tvs:wpaper:wp-022&r=all |
| By: | Nguyen Doan; Canh Phuc Nguyen; Ilan Noy; Yasuyuki Sawada |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the economic impacts of SARS on the four affected Asian economies and the two most affected Chinese regions using synthetic control methods with macroeconomic and remote-sensing nightlight data. For the four affected economies (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore), we find only very short-term identifiable adverse impact on per capita GDP. These economies grew at a very fast pace in the post-SARS period, showing a strong V-shaped recovery. We detect a persistent decrease of 2-4 percent in the affected Chinese regions, Guangdong and Beijing; and this identifiable downturn appears to be robust to placebo analysis with standard synthetic control methods, but not when using the Augmented Synthetic Control method (ASCM). The ASCM analysis suggests that even the decline in the most heavily affected Chinese regions was fairly short lived. Overall, these finding suggests that the benign picture that emerges from the analysis of national-level data might be somewhat misleading; but that SARS did not eventually lead to statistically observable declines in economic activity, given its relatively limited spread to other countries, and the affected countries ability to stop its spread within very quickly. Obviously, by now it is clear that the picture emerging for COVID-19 is very different. |
| Keywords: | disease, epidemic, pandemic, SARs, COVID-19, economic impact |
| JEL: | I15 I18 O11 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8687&r=all |
| By: | Devasmita Jena (Lecturer, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India); Swati Saini (Assistant Professor, Dyal Singh College, University of Delhi) |
| Abstract: | In recent time, India‘s growing trade deficits with its partner countries have been a major policy concern, making Indian policymakers cautious about signing new free trade deals. In this paper, we argue that in addition to the impact of trade agreements on India‘s trade balance, policy discussions on trade agreements should also take into account the impact of trade on a spectrum of other economic indicators, such as economic growth, income distribution and employment. In particular, the impact on employment is central to assess whether or not greater trade integration is helping or harming the country, since employment numbers capture both growth and distributional aspect of trade. This paper sheds light on this aspect by examining the impact of Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)- India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) on industry-level employment in India during the period of 1996-97 to 2016-17. We use a dynamic econometric model in a panel framework and find that while export and import have had favorable impact on industrial sector employment prior to 2004-05, AIFTA led to decline in industrial sector employment post 2004-05. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Employment, India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, KLEMS |
| JEL: | F1 F4 J2 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2020-190&r=all |
| By: | Hilhorst, D.J.M.; Vervest, M.-J.; Desportes, I.; Melis, S.; Mena Fluhmann, R.A.; van Voorst, R.S. |
| Abstract: | This report describes the main findings and recommendations of research carried out for the Partners for Resilience (PfR) alliance on how the PfR programme is affected by – or may affect – conflict. Although PfR works in different conflict-affected countries and contexts, it does not address conflict or insecurity explicitly. This is potentially problematic for PfR’s effectiveness. It is therefore important to consider whether PfR could or should address conflict more explicitly. For this research, a qualitative analysis of the experiences within the ongoing PfR programme was conducted in all 10 countries: Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mali, Philippines, South Sudan, Uganda and the regional programmes in Asia, Africa and Central America. The research was conducted by consultants and researchers from the International Institute of Social Studies, the Hague. The core of the study consisted of an online survey, for which PfR staff and partners from all countries were invited, in addition to Skype interviews and a desk study. In all, 52 people participated. The overall recommendation for PfR is to address conflict more explicitly in its IRM approach and to integrate conflict in the design and programming of a new phase. This would entail acknowledgment by PfR that conflict is impacting the goals of PfR work, and a commitment to support and train staff in addressing conflict. More concretely, the report offers several recommendations and ideas for next steps. In line with suggestions of research participants, the key elements for conflict-sensitive programming for PfR partners are: 1. transparent communication towards all parties 2. facilitation of multi-stakeholder dialogues to increase parties’ understanding of conflict dynamics 3. the creation of a safe spaces for stakeholders. It is also suggested that Netherlands embassies play a role in addressing conflict and supporting PfR, for example by lobbying stakeholders and supporting partners financially or otherwise. Moreover, PfR should create a conflict-sensitivity toolbox and develop guidelines for conflict-sensitive and inclusive policy and programming (not just including women, but also ethnic minorities) and training for its worldwide staff in the use of conflict risk assessment tools. We believe that these steps will make the work of PfR more effective and decrease the risk that interventions feed into conflict. A more detailed set of recommendations feature at the end of this report. |
| Keywords: | Resilience in practice, Disaster Risk Reduction, Conflict, Partners for Resilience, Do no Harm |
| Date: | 2020–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:131291&r=all |
| By: | Hanke, Steve H. (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a contributor at the National Review. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0158&r=all |
| By: | Martin Johnsen; Oliver Brandt; Sergio Garrido; Francisco C. Pereira |
| Abstract: | The impacts of new real estate developments are strongly associated to its population distribution (types and compositions of households, incomes, social demographics) conditioned on aspects such as dwelling typology, price, location, and floor level. This paper presents a Machine Learning based method to model the population distribution of upcoming developments of new buildings within larger neighborhood/condo settings. We use a real data set from Ecopark Township, a real estate development project in Hanoi, Vietnam, where we study two machine learning algorithms from the deep generative models literature to create a population of synthetic agents: Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) and Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGAN). A large experimental study was performed, showing that the CVAE outperforms both the empirical distribution, a non-trivial baseline model, and the CGAN in estimating the population distribution of new real estate development projects. |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2011.06851&r=all |
| By: | Hanke, Steve H. (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co - Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at C entral Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion pages . Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Han ke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976 - 77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1981 - 82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984 - 88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994 - 96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999 - 2003. He was also an A dvisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997 - 2002, Venezuela in 1995 - 96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia - Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0153&r=all |
| By: | Hanke, Steve H. (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute forApplied Economics,Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The JohnsHopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a contributor at Forbes. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997-2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, BosniaHerzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0150&r=all |
| By: | Hanke, Steve H. (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a contributor at Forbes. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997-2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, BosniaHerzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. Prof. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Universität Liechtenstein, the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the Free University of Tbilisi, Istanbul Kültür University, Varna Free University, and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in recognition of his scholarship on exchange-rate regimes. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0133&r=all |
| By: | Hanke, Steve H. (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a contributor at Forbes. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997-2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0135&r=all |
| By: | Hanke, Steve H. (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a contributor at the National Review. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0154&r=all |
| By: | Sy-Hoa Hoa; Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | We investigate short-run nonlinear impacts of bank credit on economic growth in ASEAN countries. We find an inverted L-shaped relationship and a statistically significant threshold of 96.5%. Positive effects of bank credit expansion on short-run economic growth fade away after this threshold. |
| Keywords: | Bank credit, Economic growth, Dynamic threshold estimation, ASEAN. |
| JEL: | C23 E51 G21 O41 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2020-48&r=all |
| By: | Abba AHmed, Bello; Isah I, Salamatu; Aliyu Chika, Umar |
| Abstract: | The paper examined the risk-adjusted performance of Dow Jones and FTSE conventional and Islamic indices. The daily closing stock prices of 22 indices from January 2006 to December 2017 were selected from 11 countries comprising US, Europe, Canada, Japan, Turkey, Malaysia, China India, Qatar, Kuwait, and Taiwan. The returns of the series were first computed and then Sharpe ratio and Treynor index were used to analyze the data. It was clear that in some countries conventional indices out performed Islamic indices (US, Malaysia and Taiwan) whereas in others Islamic indices were better (EU, Kuwait, China and Qatar). The last category had inconclusive result this was because whereas the Sharpe ratio suggests a better performance of the conventional indices, on the contrary the Treynor ratio suggested that the Islamic indices performed better (Canada, Japan, Turkey and India). |
| Keywords: | Risk-adjusted measures, Islamic stock index, Conventional stock index, Sharpe ratio, Treynor index |
| JEL: | G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2019–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104168&r=all |
| By: | Xintong Wang (Department of Accounting, Economics, and Finance, Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania); Carlos A. Flores (Orfalea College of Business, California Polytechnic State University); Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the short- and long-term effects of the U.S. Vietnam-era military service on veterans’ health outcomes using a restricted version of the National Health Interview Survey 1974-2013 and employing the draft lotteries as an instrumental variable (IV). We start by assessing whether the draft lotteries, which have been used as an IV in prior literature, satisfy the exclusion restriction by placing bounds on its net or direct effect on the health outcomes of draft avoiders. Since we do not find evidence against the validity of the IV, we assume its validity in conducting inference on the health effects of military service for individuals who comply with the draft-lotteries assignment (the “compliers”), as well as for those who volunteer for enlistment (the “always-takers”). The causal analysis for volunteers, who represent over 75% of veterans, is novel in this literature that typically focuses on the compliers. Since the effect for volunteers is not point-identified, we employ bounds that rely on a mild mean weak monotonicity assumption. We examine a large array of health outcomes and behaviors, including mortality, up to 40 years after the end of the Vietnam War. We do not find consistent evidence of detrimental health effects on compliers, in line with prior literature. For volunteers, however, we document that their estimated bounds show statistically significant detrimental health effects that appear 20 years after the end of the conflict. As a group, veterans experience similar statistically significant detrimental health effects from military service. These findings have implications for policies regarding compensation and health care of veterans after service |
| Keywords: | Veteran Health, Treatment Effects, Bounds, Instrumental Variables |
| JEL: | I22 C31 C36 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:234&r=all |
| By: | Mehdi Chowdhury (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University); Nigel Williams; Nicholas Karen Thompson |
| Abstract: | Since August 2017, more than 700000 Rohingya seek refuge in Bangladesh from neighboring Myanmar that resulted in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. However little is known about the humanitarian operations of the Government of Bangladesh and humanitarian bodies in the management of this crisis. This article aims to fill this gap. It provides a profile of organizations in relation to the Rohingya refugee crisis which will serve a baseline for any future research. The article analyzes the 4W data of the UNOCHA and provides an evaluation of humanitarian operators and involvement of various actors. Segregation of humanitarian operators by National and International NGOs suggests that the humanitarian operations are still dominated by international actors and localization i.e. a greater involvement of the Bangladeshi actors is yet to be achieved. |
| Keywords: | Rohingya; Bangladesh; Humanitarian operations; 4W data; Localization |
| JEL: | L31 F22 H12 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes28&r=all |