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on South East Asia |
| By: | Jihyun Lee (University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | Non-cognitive characteristics of students in four Southeast Asian countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam – were reviewed based on the PISA 2009, 2012, and 2015 data. Overall, students in this region demonstrated similarities with respect to their non-cognitive dispositions such as learning habits, approaches to learning, motivation for school subject matters and self-beliefs about their abilities.The non-cognitive characteristics that were most prevalent in the region included enjoyment and instrumental motivation to learn, which were evidenced by the indices of intrinsicmotivation for mathematics (INTMAT), instrumental motivation for mathematics (INSTMOT), enjoyment in learning of science (JOYSCIE), and instrumental motivation in learning science (INSTSCIE). However, these variables were not strong predictors of student achievement in this region.The review also revealed that the best non-cognitive predictors of student achievement were metacognitive awareness (METASUM and UNDREM) for reading achievement; self-efficacy, self-concept, and anxiety (MATHEFF, SCMAT, and ANXMAT) for mathematics achievement; and environmental awareness and epistemological beliefs (ENVAWARE and EPIST) for science achievement. These variables were also the best predictors, on average, across all PISA participants and economies. However, some region-specific non-cognitive predictors were also noted. These were intrinsic motivation (INTMAT) in Malaysia; perseverance (PERSEV) in Thailand; and mathematics intentions (MATINTFC)in Viet Nam.Overall, the similarities found in the non-cognitive characteristics among Southeast Asian students suggest that (a) regional collaboration in designing the educational strategies may be beneficial and that (b) an implementation of regional questionnaires in future PISA surveys may be useful to gain an in-depth understanding of achievement-related factors in this region. |
| Date: | 2020–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:233-en&r=all |
| By: | Takahiro Akita (IUJ Research Institutey, International University of University); Sachiko Miyata (Graduate School of Business Administration, Ritsumeikan University) |
| Abstract: | No Abstract |
| Keywords: | urban and rural dimensions, educational inequality, expenditure inequality, hierarchical decomposition of Theil indices, comparative analysis |
| JEL: | I24 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2020_04&r=all |
| By: | Cheng, John W.; Mitomo, Hitoshi; Seo, Youngkyoung; Kamplean, Artima |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines factors that influence public opinion towards regulating fake news in three Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. Based on the lesser evil principle, it is hypothesised that the perceived harm of fake news (one evil) will increase one's support towards regulating it. In parallel, it is also anticipated that some people might realise that restricting fake news may also harm freedom of expression (another evil) and thus, those who use fact-checking websites (a non-regulatory counter fake news solution) would be less supportive towards regulating fake news. Using original survey data collected from the three countries (n=5,218) and multi-group SEM analysis, it is found that the above hypotheses hold true for respondents from Japan and South Korea, but not for those from Thailand. This implies that the lesser evil principle may be applicable only in democratic countries, where freedom of expression is protected. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itso20:224849&r=all |
| By: | Schmidt, Emily; Dorosh, Paul A.; Gilbert, Rachel |
| Abstract: | Rice prices in international markets rose sharply between December 2019 and May 2020, increasing, for example, by 25 percent in Thailand and 30 percent in Vietnam. Given that essentially all of the rice supply for Papua New Guinea (PNG) comes from rice imports, the domestic price of rice in PNG is likely to rise substantially in coming months. Although PNG’s food economy is dominated by domestically produced starchy staples, rice imports have almost doubled from 167,000 tons annually in 2005 to an estimated 300,000 tons in 2020. This note examines rice consumption patterns and international trade trends for PNG to shed light on the potential impacts in rural and urban PNG of disruptions to rice imports. Our model simulations indicate that a 30 percent rise in the world price of rice would be expected to decrease the rice consumption of poor households by 17.3 percent. Under this scenario, consumers in poor households, which are those in the bottom 40 percent of the household expenditure distribution in PNG, would suffer a net welfare loss of USD 23.0 million, equivalent to a 1.6 percent decrease in a per capita daily income of one US dollar. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA, OCEANIA, food prices, rice, welfare, households, food consumption, trade, exports, rice prices. rice consumption |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:6&r=all |
| By: | Oo, Than Zaw; Lambrecht, Isabel; Headey, Derek D.; Goudet, Sophie |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, social impact, economic impact, rural areas, urban areas, surveys, policies, households, phone surveys, COVID-19 prevention measures |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myansn:5&r=all |
| By: | neifar, malika |
| Abstract: | In this paper we test the weak form of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) using monthly data of stock prices for the period from 2010M01 to 2019M07 for seven markets (Tunindex) in Tunisia and 6 Asian countries : Saudi Arabia (TSAI), Japon (Nikkei 225), China (SSEC), Turkey (BIST100), India (BSE30), and Indonesia (JKSE) by using linear and nonlinear (KSS and Modified KSS) unit root tests. Our empirical results indicate that the stock markets are efficient [not efficient] in the weak form of EMH in Tunisia and Saudi Arabia [Japan, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and China]. The major policy implications is that in these five countries (Japan, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and China), fund managers and investors can enjoy excess returns to their investment. |
| Keywords: | Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH); BDS test; Linear Unit root test; Nonlinear Unit root test, Tunisia and 6 Asian countries |
| JEL: | C12 C22 G10 G14 |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103232&r=all |
| By: | Kamplean, Artima |
| Abstract: | In recent years, fake news has become a worldwide phenomenon. The advancement of technology also plays a critical part in the spreading process since it changes the process and the speed of information spreading. Media consumption trend has shifted toward more online content and therefore, recently fake news report also follows the trend to occur more in an online platform. One of the most significant events in the U.S. presidential election in 2016 which sparks a wide concern that the effect of fake news spreading could lead to further social problems especially in the online platform such as social media (Allcott and Gentzkow, 2017). This study is an empirical study aiming to investigate how people react with different types of fake news focusing on spreading or encountering behavior. The study uses a quantitative approach with international and domestic case studies, in a total of 4 case studies. Most studies focus in the U.S. (especially after the 2016 presidential election) leaving a gap of study from other regions. This study can fill in the academic gap of fake news studies in Asia where the region is a high internet usage and also faces fake news problem. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itso20:224861&r=all |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Aung, Nilar; Lwin, Wuit Yi; Zone, Phoo Pye; Nyunt, Khin Maung; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | The policy measures taken by the Government of Myanmar to contain the transmission of COVID-19 are a necessary and appropriate response to the pandemic. In-depth analysis of policy measures of this magnitude on firms, households, government, and the economy as a whole is key to the design of policy interventions that can mitigate the economic losses and support a sustained and robust recovery. In this policy paper, we use a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Myanmar’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is a simulation tool ideally suited to measuring short-term direct and indirect economy-wide impacts of unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks, such as COVID-19. The multiplier model builds on a SAM, which is a database that captures resource flows associated with all economic transactions taking place in an economy and represents the structure of the economy at a point in time by showing the interlinkages and relationships between actors, i.e., productive activities, households, governments, and relationships with the rest of the world. The Myanmar SAM captures 63 distinct activities or sectors to characterize Myanmar’s economy in 2019. |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, agriculture, service industry, secondary sector, policies, tourism, mining, economic impact, trade, remittances, agrifood systems, gross national product, Covid-19, SAM multipliers, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), lockdown |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myanwp:1&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to understand how countries have leveraged on their economic resilience to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. The focus is on a global sample of 150 countries divided into four main regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, America and Europe. The study develops a health vulnerability index (HVI) and leverages on an existing economic resilience index (ERI) to provide four main scenarios from which to understand the problem statement, namely: ‘low HVI-low ERI’, ‘high HVI-low ERI’, ‘high HVI-high ERI’ and ‘low HVI-high ERI’ quadrants. It is assumed that countries that have robustly fought the pandemic are those in the ‘low HVI-high ERI’ quadrant and to a less extent, countries in the ‘low HVI-low ERI’ quadrant. Most European countries, one African country (i.e. Rwanda), four Asian countries (Japan, China, South Korea and Thailand) and six American countries (USA, Canada, Uruguay, Panama, Argentina and Costa Rica) are apparent in the ideal quadrant. |
| Keywords: | Novel coronavirus, health vulnerability, economic resilience |
| JEL: | E10 E12 E20 E23 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:20/074&r=all |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Mahrt, Kristi |
| Abstract: | With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar’s economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015. |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, social protection, households, income, farm income, models, remittances, poverty, rural areas, remuneration, Covid-19, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS), lockdown, rural households, agricultural income |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myanwp:2&r=all |
| By: | Headey, Derek D.; Goudet, Sophie; Lambrecht, Isabel; Oo, Than Zaw; Maffioli, Elisa Maria; Field, Erica; Toth, Russell |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, poverty, food security, rural areas, urban areas, households, diet, cash transfers, social protection, surveys, employment, economic recovery, Covid-19, Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myansn:4&r=all |
| By: | Persada, Pena; , Zulfiyanda |
| Abstract: | Perjalanan sejarah perbankan syariah di Indonesia telah berjalan lebih dari 25 tahun. Usia ini cukup dewasa apabila melakukan penilaian terhadap perkembangannya, sehingga wajar dalam perjalanannya banyak sorotan dan pendapat dari berbagai kalangan masyarakat, baik positif maupun negatif. Sejak diberlakukannya Undang-Undang Nomor 21 Tahun 2008 tentang Perbankan Syariah yang di dalamnya selain mencakup sistem bagi hasil juga mencakup sistem jual beli atau murabahah yang selanjutnya dijalankan oleh bank-bank syariah hingga saat ini. Di Indonesia, pembiayaan murabahah menjadi produk pembiayaan yang utama di dalam bank syariah menjalankan bisnis pembiayaannya, sehingga pengikatan pembiayaannya menggunakan akad pembiayaan murabahah. Pada umumnya perbankan syariah di Indonesia dalam menyalurkan pembiayaannya menggunakan skema akad pembiayaan murabahah bil wakalah. Untuk itu, dalam buku ini penulis ingin menjelaskan bagaimana prosedur dalam menyalurkan produk pembiayaannya dengan menggunakan akad pembiayaan murabahah bil wakalah sesuai dengan peraturanperaturan yang berlaku, sehingga terpenuhinya prinsip syariah. |
| Date: | 2020–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:ac9ef&r=all |
| By: | Headey, Derek D.; Goudet, Sophie; Lambrecht, Isabel; Oo, Than Zaw; Maffioli, Elisa Maria; Toth, Russell |
| Abstract: | Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar’s Dry Zone. Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 – median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences. These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative. |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, poverty, food security, nutrition, malnutrition, social protection, welfare, households, livelihoods, health, economic impact, social impact, surveys, phone surveys |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myanwp:3&r=all |
| By: | Wicaksono, Hendro |
| Abstract: | Presentasi ini membahas konteks pendidikan tinggi di Jerman, terutama keunikan Jacobs University yang merupakan universitas internasional yang berorrientasi riset. Presentasi tersebut membandingkan hak dan kewajiban seorang dosen di Indonesia dan Jerman. Kemudian, presentasi tersebut memberi gambaran tentang proses belajar yang ideal di tingkat perguruan tinggi yang dilanjutkan dengan transformasi digital yang terjadi di perguruan tinggi. Transformasi digital di perguruan tinggi dipercepat dengan adanya pandemi COVID-19, baik di Indonesia maupun Jerman. Presentasi tersebut ditutup dengan paparan tentang persan dosen dalam pembelajaran di era digital, beserta tips dan trik untuk mengoptimalkan proses pembelajaran. |
| Date: | 2020–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pk8vb&r=all |
| By: | Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University |
| Abstract: | Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans. |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, COVID-19, agrifood systems, food systems, policies, social protection, ex ante impact assessment, agricultural production, processing, marketing, retail markets, household income, food security |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myanwp:4&r=all |
| By: | Touati, Fatima; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The objective of this research is to identify the influences between Islamic index in Europe, and its counterpart in Asia, whether the requirement of Shariah (Islamic) compliance of Islamic indexes will tend to get the indexes closer by being influential on each other, or other indexes such as, the conventional regional index and/or conventional interest rate such as LIBOR, will have more influence on the European Islamic index. To answer this question, we applied our study to the following indexes, European Islamic, Asian Islamic, Europe conventional, US conventional, and LIBOR. The standard time series techniques have been employed for the analysis. Our findings tend to indicate that European Islamic index will be influenced more by the movements in LIBOR and conventional markets, rather than the other Islamic indexes. For the policy makers and investors, our results are useful to predict movements of European Islamic index. |
| Keywords: | European Islamic market, conventional market, LIBOR |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102911&r=all |
| By: | Uddin, Md Akther; Ali, Md Hakim; Radwan, Maha |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate Islamic monetary policy and proposes an alternative monetary policy instrument, namely gross domestic products (GDP) growth link instrument. The modeling techniques applied are ordinary least square (OLS) and the method is applied to a dataset of 99 countries for the year 2012 and time series data for Malaysia over the period of 1983-2013. Moreover, six months (January – June 2014) daily data on Islamic and conventional interbank rates are used for the correlational study. The results tend to show that GDP growth rate adjusted for interest income and inflation can be set as a benchmark for money market instruments and reference rate for financial and capital market to set the cost of capital or rate of return. Also, we found that real interest rate is mostly not representative across 99 countries as most of the time policy rates are either determined in the money market which is usually disintegrated with the real sector of an economy, or it is fixed by the Central Bank. Islamic and conventional money market rates are found significantly correlated in the presence of dual banking system. Moreover, inflation and employment rate in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries are found higher than non-OIC countries. Therefore, the interest rate should be replaced with more representative policy rate like the GDP growth rate linked instrument which could provide a benchmark rate for pricing products in Islamic commercial banking, and an avenue for investment in the Islamic financial market. |
| Keywords: | Real Economy, Islamic Monetary Policy, Real Interest Rate, GDP Growth Rate, Inflation, Real Exchange Rate, Gross Savings |
| JEL: | E42 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2019–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102888&r=all |
| By: | Musaeva, Gulzhan; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The connection between oil price fluctuations and stock markets has gained much attention in the recent decades due to the critical importance of global oil prices. This paper aims to study the Granger-causal relationship between real prices of the Islamic stock market and real oil prices – a novel study, to the best of our knowledge. Malaysia is chosen as a case study. Using the standard time series techniques, we have discovered that Islamic stock prices and oil prices are both more or less independently leading; that is, neither of them drives the other to a large extent. These results are explained in part by Malaysia’s prevaling oil price subsidies. We thus conclude that, in all similar scenarios, investors should not use real oil price changes as a predictor of subsequent changes in the Islamic stock market, seeing that the latter seems to be strongly resilient to oil price fluctuations. The policymakers, in turn, could experiment by monitoring Islamic stock prices more closely to gauge the performance of the economy, in order to take any further action (if necessary) for affecting economic variables (through either stabilization or supply-side policies). |
| Keywords: | Islamic stock market, oil prices, Granger causality, Malaysia |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102862&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Chudik; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran; Mehdi Raissi; Alessandro Rebucci |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TG-VAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long-term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the COVID-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sample uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long-lasting, with outcomes that are quite heterogenous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies is estimated to be less severe, the United States, the United Kingdom and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global interconnections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could fall significantly below their recent lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | Threshold-augmented Global VAR (TGVAR); international business cycle; COVID-19; global volatility; threshold effects |
| JEL: | C32 E44 F44 |
| Date: | 2020–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:88829&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Chudik; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran; Mehdi Raissi; Alessandro Rebucci |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TG-VAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sam-ple uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long-lasting, with outcomes that are quite heterogenous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies are estimated to be less severe, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global interconnections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could fall significantly below their recent lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | threshold-augmented global VAR (TGVAR), international business cycle, Covid-19, global volatility, threshold effects |
| JEL: | C32 E44 F44 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8588&r=all |
| By: | Suryadeepto Nag; Sankarshan Basu; Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty |
| Abstract: | A Higher Order Markovian (HOM) model to capture the dynamics of commodity prices is proposed as an alternative to a Markovian model. In particular, the order of the former model, is taken to be the delay, in the response of the industry, to the market information. This is then empirically analyzed for the prices of Copper Mini and four other bases metals, namely Aluminum, Lead, Nickel and Zinc, in the Indian commodities market. In case of Copper Mini, the usage of the HOM approach consistently offer improvement, over the Markovian approach, in terms of the errors in forecasting. Similar trends were observed for the other base metals considered, with the exception of Aluminum, which can be attributed the volatility in the Asian market during the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.03350&r=all |
| By: | Robert W. Fairlie |
| Abstract: | Social distancing restrictions and health- and economic-driven demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter many small businesses and entrepreneurial ventures, but there is very little early evidence on impacts. This paper provides the first analysis of impacts of the pandemic on the number of active small businesses in the United States using nationally representative data from the April 2020 CPS – the first month fully capturing early effects. The number of active business owners in the United States plummeted by 3.3 million or 22 percent over the crucial two-month window from February to April 2020. The drop in active business owners was the largest on record, and losses to business activity were felt across nearly all industries. African-American businesses were hit especially hard experiencing a 41 percent drop in business activity. Latinx business owner activity fell by 32 percent, and Asian business owner activity dropped by 26 percent. Simulations indicate that industry compositions partly placed these groups at a higher risk of business activity losses. Immigrant business owners experienced substantial losses in business activity of 36 percent. Female business owners were also disproportionately affected (25 percent drop in business activity). Continuing the analysis in May and June, the number of active business owners remained low – down by 15 percent and 8 percent, respectively. The continued losses in May and June, and partial rebounds from April were felt across all demographic groups and most industries. These findings of early-stage losses to small business activity have important implications for policy, income losses, and future economic inequality. |
| Keywords: | small business, entrepreneurship, business owners, self-employment, COVID-19, coronavirus, shelter in place restrictions, social distancing restrictions, minority business, female business |
| JEL: | J15 J16 L26 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8581&r=all |