nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒10‒19
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Challenges and Prospects of the Halal Hotel Industry in Muslim-majority and Muslim-minority Countries: The Case of Malaysia and Thailand By Waehama, Wanamina; Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Hayeemad, Mahmood; Waehama, Waemamu
  2. Socioeconomic Impacts of Climatic Change on Paddy Cultivation: An Empirical Investigation in Malaysia By Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Siwar, Chamhuri; Molla, Rafiqul Islam; bin Toriman, Mohd Ekhwan; Talib, Basri Abdul
  3. Suggested administrative management on green purchasing behavior in Vietnam By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
  4. Science and technology policies and the middle-income trap: lessons from Vietnam By Klingler-Vidra, Robyn; Wade, Robert
  5. Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Sukuk Returns on Economic Growth - Evidence from Indonesia, a NARDL Perspective By jallow, ousman; Joof, Foday
  6. Changes in Healthcare Utilization, Spending, and Perceived Health during COVID–19: A Longitudinal Study from Singapore By Ahn, SangNam; Kim, Seonghoon; Koh, Kanghyock
  7. Implementasi Layanan Kesehatan bagi Lansia By Winatha, Arvin
  8. Contribution of Islamic Social Capital on Green Economic Growth in Malaysia By Hamid, Nazrah Abdul; Muda, Ruhaini; Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Omar, Normah; Nadzri, Farah Aida Ahmad
  9. New Era Posyandu By Ramadhan, Rizki Akbar
  10. UTS By nathalia, alicia
  11. public health service By Rahmadanti, Wina illirian sevi
  12. The Impact of COVID-19 on Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Singapore By Cheng, Terence Chai; Kim, Seonghoon; Koh, Kanghyock
  13. Chinese and Indian investment in Ethiopia: Infrastructure for ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ exchange and the land grabbing approach By Addis, Amsalu; Asongu, Simplice; Zuping, Zhu; Addis, Hailu
  14. Who benefits from health insurance? Uncovering heterogeneous policy impacts using causal machine learning By Noemi Kreif; Andrew Mirelman; Rodrigo Moreno-Serra; Taufik Hidayat,; Karla DiazOrdaz; Marc Suhrcke
  15. A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model By Alexander Chudik; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran; Mehdi Raissi; Alessandro Rebucci
  16. Translation in Social and Environmental Sustainability: Case of Energy Sector in few Asian Countries By Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Don, Anurasiri Nalaka Geekiyanage; Arachchillage, Aruna Prasad Nissanka; Mukherjee, Sacchidananda; Fatimah, Yuti Ariani
  17. Data-Driven Models of Selfish Routing: Why Price of Anarchy Does Depend on Network Topology By Francisco Benita; Vittorio Bil\`o; Barnab\'e Monnot; Georgios Piliouras; Cosimo Vinci
  18. The Exports of Higher Education Services from OECD Countries to Asian Countries. A Gravity Approach By Beghin, John C.; Park, Byung Yul
  19. The Impact of Interest Rate Changes on the Islamic Foreign Exchange Forward in the Malaysian Derivative Market By Arif, Nor Azmah Md.; Muda, Ruhaini; Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Mohamad, Saadiah
  20. Quantifying the U.S. Market Response to the African Swine Fever Outbreak in China By Pudenz, Christopher C.; Schulz, Lee L
  21. Covid-19 Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indexes: Global Evidence By Samba Diop; Simplice A. Asongu; Joseph Nnanna
  22. The Optimal Degree of Reciprocity in Tariff Reduction By Chang, Pao-Li

  1. By: Waehama, Wanamina; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Hayeemad, Mahmood; Waehama, Waemamu
    Abstract: The number of Muslim tourists has surged in recent years due to increased number of Muslim population with higher segment of better educated and more prosperous Muslim community. Although this is undoubtedly an opportunity for the hotel industry, the unique religious and cultural needs of Muslims pose some challenges for hoteliers. A response to this has been the development of halal hotels which offer food, accommodation and entertainment that is halal. While establishing halal hotels in Muslim-majority countries like Malaysia seems to be easier with the inherent good understanding of Islamic practices as well as support from the government, halal hotel industry could also give competitive advantage to Muslim-minority industry such as Thailand. It is therefore pertinent and timely to look into the challenges and prospects of halal hotel industry in Malaysia and Thailand. The comparative research framework must include a considerable number of hotels encompassing a variety of scales of operation from both countries to obtain reliable qualitative data. The findings could assist policymakers and relevant authorities in setting the way forward for the industry particularly by establishing relevant regulation and economic environment that support the industry.
    Date: 2020–09–17
  2. By: Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Siwar, Chamhuri; Molla, Rafiqul Islam; bin Toriman, Mohd Ekhwan; Talib, Basri Abdul
    Abstract: The changing natures of climatic factors have different impacts on agriculture based on areas, periods and crops. Farmers are the most vulnerable group who are affected both directly and indirectly through climatic changes. In the study area in Malaysia, climatic changes have adverse impacts on farmers. Due to climatic change productivity and profitability of paddy cultivation have declined in the Integrated Agricultural Development Area, North-West Selangar. Farmers perceive that paddy cultivation is no longer profitable due to low productivity as a result of climatic changes. They now prefer full-time to part-time engagement in paddy cultivation. Heavy government subsidy and encouragement are not enough; it requires increase in productivity and profitability of paddy cultivation for making its viable and sustainable sector. All efforts of mitigation and adaptation must be pursued to counter the adverse impacts of climatic changes and increase the productivity of paddy cultivation in the area. It is observed that there is a high degree of income inequality among the paddy farmers in the study area.
    Date: 2020–09–17
  3. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
    Abstract: This research aims at examining factors affecting green purchasing behaviour in Vietnam, by interviewing 297 consumers who are over 18 at the beginning of 2018. Cronbach’s Alpha, exploratory factor analysing and linear multiple regressioning were used. The results show that there are three main factors affecting green purchasing behaviour in Vietnam, arranged by reducing the importance: (1) green promotion activities, (2) information sources, and (3) price of green products. This is one of the first researches in Vietnam about this topic, and the research reveals some suggestions for businesses and governmental administrations to enhance green purchasing behaviour.
    Date: 2020–09–09
  4. By: Klingler-Vidra, Robyn; Wade, Robert
    Abstract: As Vietnam crossed the World Bank’s threshold from ‘low income’ to ‘lower middle-income’ in 2010 the government and aid donors started to speak about ‘the middle-income trap’ as a central problem; and to frame ‘science and technology (S&T) policy’ as a means of sustaining economic growth and thereby avoiding the trap. They identified China and its S&T policy as a model, and pointed to Intel’s $1 billion facility as evidence of a burgeoning technology hub. Yet in the years that followed, Vietnam’s S&T policy has limped along, with efforts simply to boost the number of Silicon Valley-styled start-ups rather than to pursue a ‘Made in China 2025’-like programme. This paper reveals two main reasons. First, the Ministry of Science and Technology is a weak ministry with little budget, unable to persuade other ministries to cooperate in more ambitious and capital-intensive strategies. Second, excitement around S&T policies was fuelled by an influx of high-tech Vietnamese returning home after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, lending support for building start-up ecosystems. These mechanisms are reinforced by Western aid agencies’ support for this narrow S&T policy conception. Findings are based on policy documents and interviews conducted with S&T policy-makers, aid donor staff, and start-up investors between 2012 and 2018.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–04–02
  5. By: jallow, ousman; Joof, Foday
    Abstract: Purpose - This paper aims to examine the asymmetric association between Sukuk returns and economic growth in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach - The Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and Granger causality test are employed from the periods 2014:M1 to 2019:M4, using GDP Growth as a proxy of economic activities, Indonesia Sukuk return index as explanatory variables and inflation and interest rate as control variables. Findings - The results posit a long run asymmetric relationship between Sukuk return and economic growth and that a positive shock on Sukuk returns results to an increase in GDP growth by 0.31% in the long run. Moreover, the results also imply that Sukuk returns and economic growth moves at different magnitude in Indonesia. However, a negative shock in the long run has no impact on economic growth. Finally, the granger causality analysis reported a unidirectional causal association flowing from Sukuk returns to economic growth, while interest and inflation rate has a neutral association with economic growth. Research limitations/implications -The sample size used in this paper is relatively small due to data availability; therefore, contradicting results with other studies conducted with this regard may arise. Practical Implications - An increase in economic growth directly impact on Sukuk returns thereby maximizing the wealth of households and holding corporations. The economy can also feel the negative effect if the reverse happens. Originality/Value: This is one of the first time research is conducted using non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag NARDL to assess the impact of Sukuk issuance on economic growth with special concentration in Indonesia.
    Keywords: Keywords: Sukuk Return, Economic Growth, NARDL, Indonesia
    JEL: E44
    Date: 2020–09–15
  6. By: Ahn, SangNam (University of Memphis); Kim, Seonghoon (Singapore Management University); Koh, Kanghyock (Korea University)
    Abstract: The COVID–19 pandemic has challenged the capacity of healthcare systems around the world and can potentially compromise healthcare utilization and health outcomes among non-COVID–19 patients. Using monthly panel data of nationally representative middle-aged and older Singaporeans, we examined the associations of the pandemic with healthcare utilization, out-of-pocket medical costs, and perceived health. At its peak, doctor visits decreased by 30% and out-of-pocket medical spending decreased by 23%, mostly driven by reductions in inpatient and outpatient care. Although there were little changes in self-reported health and sleep quality, COVID–19 increased depressive symptoms by 4%. We argue that it is imperative to monitor COVID–19's long-term health effects among non-COVID–19 patients since our findings indicated delayed healthcare and worsened mental health during the outbreak.
    Keywords: COVID–19, pandemic, healthcare utilization, healthcare spending, self-reported health status, mental health
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2020–09
  7. By: Winatha, Arvin
    Abstract: Penyediaan layanan kesehatan bagi orang lanjut usia di Indonesia, khususnya dalam kajian di daerah Surabaya dan Malang berdasarkan pada 5 prinsip. Prinsip Pertama ada Ketersediaan (availability) , Prinsip kedua ada aksesibilitas (accessibility), Prinsip Ketiga ada akseptabilitas (acceptability), Prinsip Keempat ada kualitas (quality), Prinsip Kelima ada Universalitas. Saya melakukan pengamatan dan wawancara dengan seorang nenek yang bernama Siem Giok Lin yang akrab disapa Linda. Tahun ini beliau genap berusia 80 tahun. Beliau akan mengupas layanan kesehatan yang diterima dan perbedaannya saat pandemi berdasarkan pada prinsip-prinsip
    Date: 2020–09–22
  8. By: Hamid, Nazrah Abdul; Muda, Ruhaini; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Omar, Normah; Nadzri, Farah Aida Ahmad
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between social capital on the green growth in Malaysia, with the aim of ascertaining whether faith based social capital has a role in sustaining economic growth. The study utilizes the annual data over the period of 1970-2015. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and causality using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings demonstrate the long and short-run associations between social capital and green growth in Malaysia. The causality only runs in a unidirection from social capital to the green economic growth. The findings have important policy implications for green economic growth measurement to account for social well-being and to fulfil the objectives of Islamic Sharia.
    Date: 2020–09–17
  9. By: Ramadhan, Rizki Akbar
    Abstract: Menjelaskan perkembangan terkait pelayanan kesehatan di sekitar masyarakat terutama posyandu khusus lansia. Dan memaparkan juga prinsip-prinsip yang telah diterapkan di Indonesia khususnya di wilayah Malang dan Surabaya, hal tersebut ditujukan agar para lansia mendapatkan layanan kesehatan semaksimal mungkin tanpa adanya rasa kekhawatiran dari pihak lansia itu sendiri
    Date: 2020–09–22
  10. By: nathalia, alicia
    Abstract: layanan untuk lansia di Indonesia dan Negara Lain
    Date: 2020–09–23
  11. By: Rahmadanti, Wina illirian sevi
    Abstract: layanan kesehatan masyarakat terhadap lansia di indonesia khususnya surabaya dan beberapa daerah lainnya.
    Date: 2020–09–23
  12. By: Cheng, Terence Chai (University of Adelaide); Kim, Seonghoon (Singapore Management University); Koh, Kanghyock (Korea University)
    Abstract: We provide novel evidence on how the COVID-19 global health and economic crisis is affecting overall life satisfaction and domain-specific satisfaction using data from a monthly longitudinal survey of middle-aged and older Singaporeans. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we document large declines in overall life satisfaction and domain-specific satisfaction during the COVID-19 outbreak, except satisfaction with health. These declines coincide with the introduction of a nationwide lockdown, with life satisfaction remaining below its pre-pandemic levels even after the lockdown is lifted. We also find that individuals who report a drop in household income during the COVID-19 outbreak experience a decline in overall life satisfaction almost twice as large as those who do not report any income loss.
    Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, life satisfaction, subjective well-being, individual-level monthly panel data, difference-in-differences
    JEL: E2 I12 I31
    Date: 2020–09
  13. By: Addis, Amsalu; Asongu, Simplice; Zuping, Zhu; Addis, Hailu
    Abstract: Purpose: The aim of this study is to examine the motive of China’s and India’s engagement in African countries particularly in Ethiopia, and to address the land grabbing and debt-trap diplomacy between Ethiopia and the Asian drivers, which creates challenges across the diverse social, political, economic, and ecological contexts. Methodology/approach: This study utilises both primary and secondary data. The available literature is also reviewed. The primary data were gathered through semi-structured interviews and discussions from: (i) several authority offices in Ethiopia, sources close to authorities, information-rich informants, employees, and (ii) perspectives, perceptions, and prospects from individual members of society. Findings: The study unmasks the win-win cooperation strategy from the perspective of the members of society in Ethiopia, evaluates whether China and India have strings attached or land grabbing motives. The study also shows that whether China’s and India’s move was deliberate, the implications of debt-trap diplomacy and exploitation in Ethiopia are apparent. Additionally, this study investigated several considerable potential threats to Ethiopia that will persist unless significant measures are taken to control the relations with Asian drivers. Limitations: Some of the limitations of this paper pertain to the primary data collection process from the Ethiopian Investment Commission (EIC) and other authorities, which was very challenging because people can be punished for talking to journalists or researchers. Furthermore, some investors were not willing to participate in discussions because they were engaged in areas that are not related to their licenses. Many interviewees were also not willing to disclose their names, and the data are not exhaustive in the number of investment projects covered. Originality/value: This study provides new evidence on the influence of Chinese and Indian investment, aid and trade on Ethiopia's social, political, and economic spheres. Additionally, this study contributes to the ongoing debate on land grabbing anddebt-trap diplomacy in Ethiopia.
    Keywords: Ethiopia, China, India, Land grabbing, Investment, Debt-trap diplomacy
    JEL: O1 O20 O40 O5 O55
    Date: 2020–01
  14. By: Noemi Kreif (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Andrew Mirelman (World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland); Rodrigo Moreno-Serra (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK); Taufik Hidayat, (Center for Health Economics and Policy Studies (CHEPS), Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia); Karla DiazOrdaz (Department of Medical Statistics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK); Marc Suhrcke (Centre for Health Economics, University of York, UK and Luxembourg Institute of Socio-economic Research, Luxembourg)
    Abstract: To be able to target health policies more efficiently, policymakers require knowledge about which individuals benefit most from a particular programme. While traditional approaches for subgroup analyses are constrained only to consider a small number of arbitrarily set, pre-defined subgroups, recently proposed causal machine learning (CML) approaches help explore treatment-effect heterogeneity in a more flexible yet principled way. This paper illustrates one such approach – ‘causal forests’ – in evaluating the effect of mothers’ health insurance enrolment in Indonesia. Contrasting two health insurance schemes (subsidised and contributory) to no insurance, we find beneficial average impacts of enrolment in contributory health insurance on maternal health care utilisation and infant mortality. For subsidised health insurance, however, both effects were smaller and not statistically significant. The causal forest algorithm identified significant heterogeneity in the impacts of the contributory insurance scheme: disadvantaged mothers (i.e. with lower wealth quintiles, lower educated, or in rural areas) benefit the most in terms of increased health care utilisation. No significant heterogeneity was found for the subsidised scheme, even though this programme targeted vulnerable populations. Our study demonstrates the power of CML approaches to uncover the heterogeneity in programme impacts, hence providing policymakers with valuable information for programme design.
    Keywords: policy evaluation;machine learning;heterogeneous treatment effects;health insurance
    Date: 2020–10
  15. By: Alexander Chudik; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran; Mehdi Raissi; Alessandro Rebucci
    Abstract: This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sample uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long-lasting, with outcomes that are quite heterogeneous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies are estimated to be less severe, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global interconnections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could fall significantly below their recent lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets.
    JEL: C32 E44 F44
    Date: 2020–09
  16. By: Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Don, Anurasiri Nalaka Geekiyanage; Arachchillage, Aruna Prasad Nissanka; Mukherjee, Sacchidananda; Fatimah, Yuti Ariani
    Abstract: In 1987, the Brundtland Commission introduced the term “sustainable development” to highlight the needs for taking the future generations into account. The term has evolved from only focusing on the human kind to reconciliation between humans and nature. On one hand, this evolution opens space for nature and vulnerable people to be acknowledged, on the other hand, it raises difficulties in implementing the idea due to its heterogeneity. By the mid 1990s, for instance, there were more than 100 definitions of sustainability (Marshall and Toffel, 2005). Rather than following previous scholars trying to find a general definition for sustainability, we try to approach it through the idea of translation. From this perspective, diversity is being bounded via others’ right such as a practice is wrong whenever it might harm others and not because it looks different. Based on the argument above, we look at the energy sector within Asian countries in an attempt to increase variety in understanding sustainability.
    Date: 2020–09–18
  17. By: Francisco Benita; Vittorio Bil\`o; Barnab\'e Monnot; Georgios Piliouras; Cosimo Vinci
    Abstract: We investigate traffic routing both from the perspective of real world data as well as theory. First, we reveal through data analytics a natural but previously uncaptured regularity of real world routing behavior. Agents only consider, in their strategy sets, paths whose free-flow costs (informally their lengths) are within a small multiplicative $(1+\theta)$ constant of the optimal free-flow cost path connecting their source and destination where $\theta\geq0$. In the case of Singapore, $\theta=1$ is a good estimate of agents' route (pre)selection mechanism. In contrast, in Pigou networks the ratio of the free-flow costs of the routes and thus $\theta$ is infinite, so although such worst case networks are mathematically simple they correspond to artificial routing scenarios with little resemblance to real world conditions, opening the possibility of proving much stronger Price of Anarchy guarantees by explicitly studying their dependency on $\theta$. We provide an exhaustive analysis of this question by providing provably tight bounds on PoA($\theta$) for arbitrary classes of cost functions both in the case of general congestion/routing games as well as in the special case of path-disjoint networks. For example, in the case of the standard Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) cost model, $c_e(x)= a_e x^4+b_e$ and more generally quartic cost functions, the standard PoA bound for $\theta=\infty$ is $2.1505$ (Roughgarden, 2003) and it is tight both for general networks as well as path-disjoint and even parallel-edge networks. In comparison, in the case of $\theta=1$, the PoA in the case of general networks is only $1.6994$, whereas for path-disjoint/parallel-edge networks is even smaller ($1.3652$), showing that both the route geometries as captured by the parameter $\theta$ as well as the network topology have significant effects on PoA (Figure 1).
    Date: 2020–09
  18. By: Beghin, John C.; Park, Byung Yul
    Abstract: We analyze bilateral exports of higher education services between OECD countries and Asia, using a gravity equation approach, panel data from 1998 to 2016, and PPML regression. The approach treats higher education consumption by Asian countries as a consumable durable good reflecting investment in human capital. Asian Students come to OECD countries to obtain degrees from their universities. Structurally, the flow of students from Asian country j to OECD country i depends on the higher-education capacity of i, the perceived quality of universities in i, expected earnings in i, a series of bilateral transaction costs between i and j, the income per capita in j, school-age demographics in j, and the usual multilateral trade resistance terms. We find that bilateral flows of students are strongly influenced by wage levels in the host country, bilateral distance, importers’ income, demographics, common language, the visa regime prevailing in bilateral country pairs, and the network of migrants from j in i. These results hold through a variation of specifications, proxies, and estimation methods. We find mixed evidence on the role of tertiary education capacity in OECD countries and no evidence of a country’s universities reputations explaining the flow of students. The evolution over time of education capacity, earnings, visa regimes, migrant networks, strong income growth and changes in demographics in nearby export markets explain the emergence of Australia, Canada, Korea, and New Zealand and the loss of market share by the US, which still strongly dominates international trade in higher education services. The decline in Chinese students coming to the US is also predicted for the most recent years driven by reduced by its college-age population.
    Date: 2019–11–11
  19. By: Arif, Nor Azmah Md.; Muda, Ruhaini; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Mohamad, Saadiah
    Abstract: Islamic foreign exchange forward plays a significant role to mitigate various foreign currency exchange risks. The main challenge that impedes the development and operation of the Islamic foreign exchange forward as a hedging instrument is the behaviour of relying on existing conventional framework with core conception of relying on interest rate and excessive risk taking. This study utilized monthly data from April 2004 to October 2017 of the Malaysian derivatives market. This study found that in the absence of an alternative profit-rate related benchmark and cross border activities, Islamic banks are constrained to use the interest rate benchmark. In the short run, both medium term (6-months) and longer term (12-months) tenures indicate faster speed of adjustment possibility due to higher trading volume and less demand for the medium term for the Islamic foreign exchange forward contract. It implies a need of the Islamic foreign exchange forward as a longer-term hedging instrument and not for a short term speculation and risk-taking purposes, as prohibited by shariah.
    Date: 2020–09–17
  20. By: Pudenz, Christopher C.; Schulz, Lee L
    Abstract: China reported its first outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018. The devastation caused to the Chinese hog herd has had far-reaching implications for the international pork market. The protein deficit caused by the African swine fever outbreak in China and elsewhere in Southeast Asia continues to create opportunities for exporting countries to fill the void and provides openings for back-filling other partner country’s demand needs. At the same time, increased prevalence of ASF has fueled concerns regarding the spread into disease-free regions, including the United States. Given the position of both China and the United States in the international pork market, of interest is how the U.S. pork market has responded. A structural break test identifies up to five structural breaks in a constructed series of “year-out†implied volatilities calculated from CME lean hog options. We calculate changes in the market-perceived probability of a catastrophic price decrease occurring in the CME lean hog market, with results indicating that the probability has increased substantially. The average market-perceived probability of a 30% price decrease during August 27, 2018, to March 13, 2019, increased by 165% compared to the period November 11, 2017, to August 26, 2018. Hog producers, government entities, and allied industries could all leverage this information in many of their business decisions, risk analyses, and contingency planning.
    Date: 2020–01–01
  21. By: Samba Diop (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The study complements the extant literature by constructing Covid-19 economic vulnerability and resilience indexes using a global sample of 150 countries which are categorized into four principal regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, America and Europe. Seven variables are used for the vulnerability index and nine for the resilience index. Both regions and sampled countries are classified in terms of the two proposed and computed indexes. The classification of countries is also provided in terms of four scenarios pertaining to vulnerability and resilience characteristics, notably: low vulnerability-low resilience, high vulnerability-low resilience, high vulnerability-high resilience and low vulnerability-high resilience to respectively illustrate, sensitive, severe, asymptomatic and best cases. The findings are relevant to policy makers especially as it pertains to decision making in resources allocation in the fight against the global pandemic.
    Keywords: Novel coronavirus, Economic vulnerability, Economic resilience
    JEL: E10 E12 E20 E23 I10 I18
    Date: 2020–10
  22. By: Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in the environment of Melitz (2003) with firm productivity heterogeneity. With all the conflicting effects of import tariffs on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tariff reduction is shown to be free trade.
    Keywords: Firm Heterogeneity; Reciprocal Trade Policy
    JEL: F12 F13
    Date: 2020–08–21

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