nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒08‒31
twenty-six papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Do Human Restriction Mobility Policy in Indonesia effectively reduce The Spread of COVID-19 By Satyakti, Yayan
  2. Outpatient satisfaction at private general hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Thy, Nguyen Thi Anh; Vuong, Bui Nhat; Van Kiet, Truong; , Le thi Phuong Lien
  3. Income Inequality and Ethnic Cleavages in Malaysia: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (1984-2014) By Muhammed Abdul Khalid; Li Yang
  4. Tourists satisfaction towards Bao Loc city, Vietnam By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Hang, Tran Dieu; , Le Thai Son; Kiem, Dinh; Vuong, Bui Nhat
  5. Malaysia; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia By International Monetary Fund
  6. The impact of opportunity factors leading to fraudulent behavior in Vietnam stock market By THI HOAI PHUONG NGUYEN; THI BICH THUY NGUYEN; THI THU CUC NGUYEN; HUU TAI NGUYEN
  7. The Political Economy of Palm Oil Expansion and Deforestation in Indonesia By Elías Cisnerosy; Krisztina Kis-Katosz; Nunung Nuryartono
  8. Divided Information Space: Media Polarization on Twitter during 2019 Indonesian Election By Maulana, Ardian; Situngkir, Hokky
  9. bagaimana anak muda Indonesia menghadapi global citizenship dan apakah strategi aliansi global berlaku di industri selain kesehatan By , melly
  10. Measuring Media Partisanship during Election: The Case of 2019 Indonesia Election By Maulana, Ardian; Situngkir, Hokky
  11. The aggregate productivity effects of internal migration: evidence from Indonesia By Bryan, Gharad; Morten, Melanie
  12. Malaysia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  13. bagaimana anak muda Indonesia menghadapi global citizenship dan apakah strategi aliansi global berlaku di industri selain kesehatan By , melly
  14. Overinvestment and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Renewable and Non-Renewable Resource Firms By Denny IRAWAN; OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi
  15. Medical Worker Migration and Origin-Country Human Capital: Evidence from U.S. Visa Policy By Abarcar, Paolo; Theoharides, Caroline
  16. Predictors of school dropout across Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam By Cueto, Santiago; León, Juan; Felipe, Claudia
  17. Globalization and Female Economic Participation in MINT and BRICS countries By Tolulope T. Osinubi; Simplice A. Asongu
  18. Factors Affecting the Competitive Capacity of Commercial Banks: A Critical Analysis in an Emerging Economy By Dao, Kieu Oanh; Kieu, Le; Tu, Pham Thuy; Nguyen, V.C.
  19. Determinants of Inclusive Growth in ASEAN By Victoriia Alekhina; Giovanni Ganelli
  20. Stock market vulnerability to the Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from emerging Asian stock markets By Rabhi, Ayoub
  21. Tying peasants to their land: The rise and fall of private property rights in historical Vietnam By Hoang-Anh Ho
  22. Myanmar; Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Operations By International Monetary Fund
  23. Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID-19 By Ilan Noy; Nguyen Doan; Benno Ferrarini; Donghyun Park
  24. Common Bubble Detection in Large Dimensional Financial Systems By Ye Chen; Peter C.B. Phillips; Shuping Shi
  25. Bootstrap Inference for Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments with Matched Pairs By Liang Jiang; Xiaobin Liu; Peter C.B. Phillips; Yichong Zhang
  26. Myanmar; Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Satyakti, Yayan
    Abstract: Since COVID-19 spread across the globe. Every country has attempted to reduce the spread by containment policy. Indonesia as one of the hot spot countries in South East Asia has been conduct this policy to reduce the spread. The Indonesian government introduce partial lockdown policy that called as Large Scale of Social Restriction (PSBB) in some regions. This paper examined the interaction between restriction of human mobility policy on spreading of COVID-19 confirmed case. I proxied human mobility dataset by hourly report of car congestion traffic from Waze application with sub level district. The COVID-19 confirm case retrieved from official government report with province level. In order to measure the impact of this policy, I conducted regression discontinuity design using consistent panel dataset across sub level district and daily frequency. The result indicates that the containment policy has various impact on other reduce. The policy that impact in adequate region such as DKI Jakarta has effectively reduced about 60%-70% of spreading COVID-19 confirmed case. Whereas the region with vast area such as West Java is depend on neighbor area less effectively impact on spreading COVID-19 confirm case. The model has produced robust estimation that containment policy will reduced human mobility on COVID-19 confirmed case.
    Keywords: epidemic model, regression discontinuity, econometric, spatial model, Waze, car congestion report.
    JEL: I12 I15 R41
    Date: 2020–07–18
  2. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Thy, Nguyen Thi Anh; Vuong, Bui Nhat; Van Kiet, Truong; , Le thi Phuong Lien
    Abstract: The quality of hospital services remains a concern of both the manager and the patient. The study aims to identify factors affecting outpatient satisfaction at private general hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, establishing a scale for measuring them. Some 450 outpatients who were treated in five top private hospitals in Ho Chi Minh city (HCMC) in 2019 – An Sinh General Hospital, Hoan My General Hospital, Columbia Asia International Hospital, FV Hospital, and Vu Anh International General Hospital – were interviewed directly in the last quarter of 2019 to obtain the information. The SERVPERF model, plus the cost, together with the SPSS software, have been used to process information by Cronbach’s alpha analysis, Exploratory Factor analysis, and linear regression analysis. The results show that there are five factors influencing outpatient satisfaction at private general hospitals in HCMC, in which four factors affects positively in the order of decreasing importance: treatment outcome, doctors and nurses’ professional capacity, facilities and environment of the hospital, hospital care, and the treatment time factor affects negatively. The results of the study provide private hospital in HCMC managers with a number of suggestions to increase the level of hospital service quality, so that increase outpatients satisfaction.
    Date: 2020–07–07
  3. By: Muhammed Abdul Khalid (University of Malaysia); Li Yang (PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we document the evolution of income inequality in Malaysia, not only at the national level (for the period of 1984-2014) but also by ethnic group (for the period of 2002-2014). We combine information obtained from national accounts, household surveys, fiscal data, and demographic statistics. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to produce inequality measurements of Malaysia, which are fully consistent with the national accounts. Our research shows that despite Malaysia's exceptional economic growth rate, its growth has been inclusive. For the period of 2002 – 2014, the real income growth for the bottom 50% is the highest (5.2%), followed by the middle 40% (4.1%), the top 10% (2.7%) and then the top 1% (1.6%). However, while average growth rates are positive across all ethnic groups (Bumiputera 4.9%, Indians 4.8%, and Chinese 2.7%), the highest growth of real income per adult accrued to the Bumiputera in the top 1% (at 8.3%), which sharply contrasts the much lower growth rate of the Indians (at 3.4%) and negative income growth rates of the Chinese (at -0.6%). Despite the negative growth rate, the Chinese still account for the lion's share in the top 1%. In 2014, 60% of the adults in the top 1% income group are Chinese, while 33% Bumiputera, and 6% Indians (compared to 2002, in which the top 1% consists of 72% Chinese, 24% Bumiputera, and 3% Indians). We conclude that in this period, Malaysia's growth features an inclusive redistribution between income classes, but with a twist between racial groups.
    Keywords: Income Inequality,Ethnic Cleavages,Malaysia,Distributional National Accounts,DINA World Inequality Lab
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh; Hang, Tran Dieu; , Le Thai Son; Kiem, Dinh; Vuong, Bui Nhat
    Abstract: Bao Loc City is the new tourism destination in Lam Dong province, Vietnam, where more and more tourists have been drawn to pay a visit. This study aims to test the correlative impact of tourism service quality factors on satisfaction of the tourists who have visited Bao Loc City. The key theory used in this study is SERVQUAL scale. The survey sample consists of 350 tourists who stayed overnight in Bao Loc City in the last quarter of 2019; 315 valid survey questionnaires could be used for the analysis. The research applied Cronbach’s Alpha, exploratory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modeling (SEM), and bootstrap test. The results show that the satisfaction of the tourists who have visited Bao Loc City has been affected statistically by three factors: (1) Responsiveness; (2) Reliability; and (3) Empathy, which were ranked by descending importance. Surprisingly, the research found that Tangibles and Assurance do not have an impact on tourists’ satisfaction towards Bao Loc City. The research formulates some suggestions to the city policy-makers and the tourism businesses management in Bao Loc City in order to enhance tourists’ satisfaction through improving the tourism service quality at Bao Loc City.
    Date: 2020–07–07
  5. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Article IV Consultation highlights that the Malaysian economy has shown resilience and continues to perform well. Policy priorities are governance reforms and fiscal consolidation while safeguarding growth and financial stability. Structural reforms are needed to boost productivity and help further rebalancing growth towards domestic demand. Domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver of growth over the medium term. Risks to the outlook are to the downside and stem mainly from external sources. The paper also discusses that with growth returning to sustainable levels and no underlying inflation pressures, maintaining the current broadly neutral monetary policy stance is appropriate. Exchange rate flexibility should remain the first line of defence against external shocks. Also, governance reforms should be anchored in legislation to ensure the independence of anti-corruption institutions and appropriate separation of powers. Focus should be on improving the transparency and efficiency of public services.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Real sector;Expenditures;Financial soundness indicators;Financial statistics;percent of GDP,tax refund,percent,medium term,household debt
    Date: 2019–03–08
  6. By: THI HOAI PHUONG NGUYEN (School of Banking and Finance, National Economics University); THI BICH THUY NGUYEN (Faculty of Economics, Vinh University); THI THU CUC NGUYEN (Faculty of Economics, Vinh University); HUU TAI NGUYEN (School of Banking and Finance, National Economics University)
    Abstract: To evaluate the opportunity factors that lead to fraudulent behavior in Vietnam stock market, the authors combine the case study methodology with in-depth interviews and surveys. During the survey process, the answers from 568 experts were collected from securities companies, fund management companies, Stock Exchanges and the State Securities Commission in Vietnam. By using the exploratory factor analysis method, the authors have identified opportunity factors leading to fraudulent behavior in Vietnam stock market including: (i) Group of opportunity factors due to an internal person and an issuer (Person whose internal information has not been published by the company; Collusion of the issuer and securities company; An important person in the company who abuses power; An issuer has complex organizational structure; A person has multiple positions; An issuer does not control internal information well). (ii) Group of opportunity factors by investors (Investors trade securities following an internal person; Investors trade securities following foreign investors; Investors trade securities according to brokerage company recommendations; Investors make securities transaction according to advisory information on securities forums). (iii) Group of opportunity factors due to market management and supervision (The penalty is not strict and deterrent; The penalty is untimely; The authority of the securities committee is limited). The authors then use the regression model to determine the order of the impact of each group of factors that lead to fraudulent behavior in Vietnam stock market from high to low including: opportunity factors due to an internal person and the issuing organization, the opportunity factors due to the market management and supervision and finally the opportunity factors due to investors.
    Keywords: Fraudulent behavior, Price manipulation, Insider trading, Opportunity factors
    JEL: G28
  7. By: Elías Cisnerosy; Krisztina Kis-Katosz; Nunung Nuryartono
    Abstract: This paper studies the interactions between political and economic incentives to foster forest conversion in Indonesian districts. Using a district–level panel data set from 2001 to 2016, we analyze variation in remotely sensed forest loss and forest fires as well as measures of land use licensing. We link these outcomes to economic incentives to expand oil palm cultivation areas as well as political incentives arising before idiosyncratically–timed local mayoral elections. Empirical results documentsubstantial increases in deforestation and forest fires in the year prior to local elections.Additionally, oil palm plays a crucial role in driving deforestation dynamics. Variations in global market prices of palm oil are closely linked to deforestation inareas which are geo-climatically best suited for growing oil palm and they amplify the importance of the political cycle. We thus find clear evidence for economic and political incentives reinforcing each other as drivers of forest loss and land conversion for oil palm cultivation.
    JEL: O13 Q15 Q56 P16
    Date: 2020–07
  8. By: Maulana, Ardian; Situngkir, Hokky
    Abstract: Nowadays, the understanding of the impact of social media and online news media on the emergence of extreme polarization in political discourse is one of the most pressing challenges for both science and society. In this study, we investigate the phenomenon of political polarization in the indonesian news media network based on the pattern of news consumption patterns of Twitter users during 2019 Indonesian elections. By modeling news consumption patterns as a bipartite network of news outletsTwitter user, and then projecting to a network of news outlets, we observed the emergence of a number of media communites based on audience similarity. By measuring the political alignments of each news outlet, we shows the politically fragmented Indonesian news media landscape, where each media community becomes an political echo chamber for its audience. Our finding highlight the important role of mainstream media as a bridge of information between political echo chamber in social media environment
    Keywords: network, news media network, echo-chamber, twitter, community detection, news consumption
    JEL: C00 C10 C12 C13 C15 C60 C63 C90 D80 D85
    Date: 2020–06
  9. By: , melly
    Abstract: bagaimana anak muda Indonesia menghadapi global citizenship dan apakah strategi aliansi global berlaku di industri selain kesehatan
    Date: 2020–07–02
  10. By: Maulana, Ardian; Situngkir, Hokky
    Abstract: Analysis of media partisanship during election requires an objective measurement of political bias that frames the content of information conveyed to the audience. In this study we propose a method for political stance detection of online news outlets based on the behavior of their audience in social media. The method consists of 3 processing stages, namely hashtag-based user labeling, network-based user labeling and media classification. We applied this methodology to the tweet dataset related to the 2019 Indonesian general election, to observed media alignments during the election. Evaluation results show that the proposed method is very effective in detecting the political affiliation of twitter users as well as predicting the political stance of news media. Over all, the stance of media in the spectrum of political valence confirms the general allegations of media partisanship during 2019 Indonesian election. Further elaboration regarding news consumption behavior shows that low-credibility news outlets tend to have extreme political positions, while partisan readers tend not to question the credibility of the news sources they share.
    Keywords: news media network, label propagation algorithm, twitter, election, media partisanship, news consumption
    JEL: C60 C63 C79 C80 C90 D83 D85
    Date: 2020–05–01
  11. By: Bryan, Gharad; Morten, Melanie
    Abstract: We estimate the aggregate productivity gains from reducing barriers to internal labor migration in Indonesia, accounting for worker selection and spatial differences in human capital. We distinguish between movement costs, which mean workers will move only if they expect higher wages, and amenity differences, which mean some locations must pay more to attract workers. We find modest but important aggregate impacts. We estimate a 22 percent increase in labor productivity from removing all barriers. Reducing migration costs to the US level, a high-mobility benchmark, leads to a 7.1 percent productivity boost. These figures hide substantial heterogeneity. The origin population that benefits most sees a 104 percent increase in average earnings from a complete barrier removal, or a 25 percent gain from moving to the US benchmark.
    Keywords: Selection; Internal migration; Indonesia
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2019–10–01
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper analyzes saving to understand history and identify the drivers in Malaysia. IMF analysis suggests that Malaysia’s current account (CA) surplus is higher than warranted by medium-term fundamentals and desired policies. The changes in the corporate saving rate almost entirely reflect the changes within each group of firms of similar size or age. Leveraging firm-level data for listed firms, the paper focuses on the contribution to the CA surplus of private non-financial corporations. The trend analysis indicates a high dependence of listed firms in Malaysia on internal funds (savings) to finance their investments or, equivalently, a lower dependence on external funds. The results suggest that relaxing firms’ external financing constraints and lifting productivity growth could help encourage investment and reduce excess corporate saving. The regression results show that the transaction cost and precautionary saving motives, as well as their interaction with external financing dependence, could play an important role in explaining corporate net saving.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy;Gross domestic product;Business cycles;Investment;Economic growth;medium-term,external finance,MTFF,non-financial corporation,net save
    Date: 2019–03–08
  13. By: , melly
    Abstract: Berarti diindonesia menujukan bahwa anak muda dengan budaya konsumen global kurang suka dengan perilaku kewarganegaraan global yaitu berpartisipasi dalam isu sosial ekonomi dan lingkungan global.Kewarganegaraan biasanya dikaitkan dengan serangkaian praktik, hak, dan kewajiban yang ditentukan keanggotaan individu di suatu negara
    Date: 2020–07–05
  14. By: Denny IRAWAN; OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi
    Abstract: Investment is an inherent component of business activities. This study examines the tendency of resource firms to overinvest induced by the business cycle and uncertainties. The analysis is conducted using unbalanced panel data drawn from 584 resource companies across 32 countries covering 1986 to 2017 in four resource sectors: (1) alternative energy, (2) forestry and paper, (3) mining, and (4) oil and gas producers. The results indicate that the forestry and paper sector overinvests relative to the standard investment level predicted by the investment function regardless of the sample period, while the alternative energy sector tends to underinvest. Also, many emerging economies, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and South Korea, are found to have overinvested over the last three decades or so. In addition, the results suggest that commodity price inflation plays a more important role in inducing firms' overinvestment than commodity price uncertainty. It is also found that the home country's business cycle significantly affects overinvestment, with the sign alternating from negative to positive after the global financial crisis. Furthermore, the finding also shows no significant relationship between global geopolitical risk and overinvestment but a significantly positive relationship is found between global economic and country-level governance policy uncertainties and overinvestment. Lastly, the results suggest that the effect of overinvestment on firm performance after three years is positive, especially for firms in the mining sector.
    Date: 2020–06
  15. By: Abarcar, Paolo; Theoharides, Caroline
    Abstract: We exploit changes in U.S. visa policies for nurses to measure brain drain versus gain. Combining data on all migrant departures and postsecondary institutions in the Philippines, we show that nursing enrollment and graduation increased substantially in response to greater U.S. demand for nurses. The supply of nursing programs expanded to accommodate this increase. Nurse quality, measured by licensure exam pass rates, declined. Despite this, for each nurse migrant, 10 additional nurses were licensed. New nurses switched from other degree types, but graduated at higher rates than they would have otherwise, thus increasing the human capital stock in the Philippines.
    Date: 2020–07–31
  16. By: Cueto, Santiago; León, Juan (Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)); Felipe, Claudia
    Abstract: In this paper the authors utilize the five rounds of Young Lives household surveys across four countries (Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam) to study the characteristics of children who had dropped out of school by 22 years of age. While most children in the longitudinal sample go to primary school, they tend to drop out more often and earlier in Ethiopia. In India most children complete the early grades of school but drop out later, particularly in grades 11 and 13. Researchers find that in all countries, except Vietnam, there is a considerable number of children who drop out of school but at some point return to it, either to complete secondary or drop out again. The reasons provided by children for dropping out across the countries are oftentimes related to poverty: for example, the need to work, or care or provide for family. The multivariate analysis shows that indeed in many cases the wealth level of the family at an early age predicts later dropout, as does maternal education level, students’ early skills and residence in certain regions of each country. There are also some variations across countries; for example, boys are more likely to drop out of school in Ethiopia and Vietnam, and children who have repeated a grade are more likely to drop out of school in Peru. However, having high educational aspirations at early ages seems to be a protective factor against dropping out. This suggests that the value that children place on education may be an important preventative factor against dropping out. Overall, these results suggest the need to act early through education and social protection interventions to target young children who are at risk of dropping out, and the follow their trajectories, providing support as needed to specific groups and even individuals, so that all children may fulfill their right to complete at least secondary education.
    Keywords: Dropping out, Student drop out, Deserción escolar, Comparative analysis, Análisis comparativo, Young Lives, Niños del Milenio, Ethiopia India, Vietnam, Etiopia, Vietnan, Perú, Peru
    JEL: I20 I21
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Tolulope T. Osinubi (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of globalization on female economic participation (FEP) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) countries between 2004 and 2018. Four measures of globalization are employed and sourced from KOF globalization index, 2018, while the female labour force participation rate is a proxy for FEP. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators. The findings of the PMG estimator from the Panel ARDL method reveal that political and overall globalization in MINT and BRICS countries have a positive impact on FEP, whereas social globalization exerts a negative impact on FEP in the long-run. It is observed that economic globalization has no long-run effect on FEP. Contrarily, all the measures of globalization posit no short-run effect on FEP in the short-run. This supports the argument that globalization has no immediate effect on FEP. Thus, it is recommended that both MINT and BRICS countries should find a way of improving the process of globalization generally to empower women to be involved in economic activities. This study complements the extant literature by focusing on how globalization dynamics influence FEP in the MINT and BRICS countries.
    Keywords: Globalization; female; gender; labour force participation; MINT and BRICS countries
    JEL: E60 F40 F59 D60
    Date: 2020–08
  18. By: Dao, Kieu Oanh; Kieu, Le; Tu, Pham Thuy; Nguyen, V.C.
    Abstract: This research was conducted to investigate the factors influencing the commercial bank’s competitive capacity in an emerging country. Data were collected from the domestic-owned commercial banks and foreign-owned commercial banks listed on Vietnam’s Stock Exchange over the period of nine years from 2010 to 2018. Three statistic approaches were employed to address econometrics issues and to improve the accuracy of the regression coefficients: Pooled Ordinary Least Square (Pooled OLS), Random Effects Model (REM), and Fixed Effects Model (FEM). To correct the diagnostics and endogeneity in the model, the study uses Generalized Least Square (GLS) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). In order to account for the degree of competitive capacity we use Lerner index. Results demonstrate that the impact of bank-specific characteristics on market power in banks is statistically significant, and there are substantial distinguishments of economic consideration among these factors. In addition, a bank with a higher level of competitive capacity in the previous year will outstandingly generate competitive capacity in the current year. Another possibility, a greater level foreign investment into the banks in the host country could further encourage competitive capacity in the banking system. Finally, economic growth rate has no impact on competitive capacity at a significant level of 5% while a positive effect from inflation on bank’s market power could be found.
    Date: 2020–07–06
  19. By: Victoriia Alekhina; Giovanni Ganelli
    Abstract: Over the past decades ASEAN countries have experienced rapid economic growth accompanied by a dramatic fall in poverty rates, but income inequality has not retreated. This research aims at identifying factors which could contribute to more equally distributed growth in ASEAN. To measure inclusive growth, we use a variable integrating per capita income growth and an equity index. A cross-country panel analysis of the impact of macro-structural factors on inclusive growth and its two components suggests that fiscal redistribution, female labor force participation, productivity growth, FDI inflows, digitalization, and savings significantly drive inclusive growth. A scenario analysis based on our econometric results suggests that the implementation of fiscal redistribution and labor market-oriented structural reforms could help significantly accelerate inclusive growth in ASEAN.
    Date: 2020–07–03
  20. By: Rabhi, Ayoub
    Abstract: This paper studies empirically the emerging Asian stock market vulnerability to pandemics. Taking the Covid-19 virus as a case study, we used the ARDL panel data approach to investigate the impact of the daily Covid-19 confirmed cases along with a behavioral component based on a triggering fear event related to news about Covid-19 deaths. The results indicate that both the reported daily growth of Covid-19 confirmed cases along with the triggering fear event related to news about death, affected the Asian stock markets performance negatively, other variables such as oil price, gold price, exchange rates, and the U.S stock market were also found to be determinants of the Asian stock markets during the studied period.
    Keywords: Behavioral finance, Covid-19, Event study, Pandemic, Stock market
    JEL: C4 C5 G1 G10 G15
    Date: 2020–04
  21. By: Hoang-Anh Ho
    Abstract: I present a theory to account for the emergence of land rights in a subsistence agricultural economy. An important feature is that, to maximize tax revenue, an authoritarian state must devise land rights to overcome the informational constraint in registering the population for tax collection. It can do so, given the state capacity is sufficiently high, by owning land and assigning cultivation rights (but not sale or transfer rights) to landless peasants to tie them to their land. The theory gives rise to a testable hypothesis, positing that private ownership of land is less prevalent in areas where population density is higher. In the early 19th century, the new Nguyen Dynasty of historical Vietnam carried out a land registry to establish formal land rights in the whole country. Exploiting this land registry, I discover that private ownership of land is less prevalent in areas where population density is higher. Furthermore, primary accounts and related historical studies show that the mechanism at work is in line with the proposed theory. Thus, the theory in question and the associated empirical evidence show that a strong state could reverse the general process in economic history whereby societies moved towards private land rights as population density increased and land became more scarce.
    Keywords: Land rights,Population density,Historical Vietnam
    JEL: D02 Q15 N45
    Date: 2020
  22. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance Report presents discussions focused on the financial market’s developments and monetary operations-related issues. the data collected by the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) show that there already exist a significant number of uncollateralized interbank (I/B) transactions in Myanmar, but that the data on these transactions are not effectively used. Analysis shows that banks are conducting both types of uncollateralized transactions rather actively, while the total number and amount of the I/B deposit market are higher than those of the I/B borrowing market. It is recommended that efforts to correct data discrepancy should be continued and that this issue should be solved as soon as possible. It is necessary to find the data discrepancy in a timely manner, correct the data, and ask the reasons for misreporting by communicating with banks. In order to ensure the smooth preparation for the next fiscal year, a recommendation has been made to start preparing the liquidity forecasting for the next fiscal year as soon as possible.
    Keywords: Bank rates;Central banks;Bank liquidity;Market interest rates;Reserve requirements;CBM,transaction amount,repo,market participant,credit facility
    Date: 2019–03–26
  23. By: Ilan Noy; Nguyen Doan; Benno Ferrarini; Donghyun Park
    Abstract: We measure the economic risk of COVID-19 at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the current prevalence of confirmed cases, we use data from 2014-2018 and a conceptual disaster risk model to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of the epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard, the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy’s resilience (i.e., its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of this pandemic is particularly high in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc equal weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, an algorithm that assumes equal hazard for all countries, and one based on estimated weights using previous aggregated Disability-Adjusted Life Years losses associated with communicable diseases.
    Keywords: epidemic, COVID-19, risk measurement, economic impact
    JEL: I10
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Ye Chen (Singapore Management University); Peter C.B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Shuping Shi (Macquarie University)
    Abstract: Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The explosive and stationary factors model latent forces that underlie the formation and destruction of asset price bubbles, which typically exist only for subperiods of the sample. The paper provides an algorithm for testing the presence of and date-stamping the origination and termination of price bubbles determined by latent factors in a large-dimensional system embodying many markets. Asymptotics of the bubble test statistic are given under the null of no common bubbles and the alternative of a common bubble across these markets. We prove consistency of a factor bubble detection process for the origination and termination dates of the common bubble. Simulations show good finite sample performance of the testing algorithm in terms of its successful detection rates. Our methods are applied to real estate markets covering 89 major cities in China over the period January 2003 to March 2013. Results suggest the presence of three common bubble episodes in what are known as China's Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities over the sample period. There appears to be little evidence of a common bubble in Tier 3 cities.
    Keywords: Common Bubbles, Mildly Explosive Process, Factor Analysis, Date Stamping, Real Estate Market
    JEL: C12 C13 C58
    Date: 2020–08
  25. By: Liang Jiang (Singapore Management University); Xiaobin Liu (School of Economics, Academy of Financial Research, and Institute for Fiscal Big-Data & Policy of Zhejiang University); Peter C.B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Yichong Zhang (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). We derive the limit distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs, highlighting the difficulties that arise in analytical inference due to parameter tuning. We show that the naive weighted bootstrap fails to approximate the limit distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs because it ignores the dependence structure within the matched pairs.To address this difficulty we propose two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution: the gradient bootstrap and the weighted bootstrap of the inverse propensity score weighted (IPW) estimator. The gradient bootstrap is free of tuning parameters but requires knowledge of the pair identities. The weighted bootstrap of the IPW estimator does not require such knowledge but involves one tuning parameter. Both methods are straightforward to implement and able to provide pointwise confidence intervals and uniform confidence bands that achieve exact limiting coverage rates. We demonstrate their finite sample performance using simulations and provide an empirical application to a well-known dataset in microfinance.
    Keywords: Bootstrap inference, Matched pairs, Quantile treatment effect, Randomized control trials
    JEL: C14 C21
    Date: 2020–08
  26. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to hit hard Myanmar’s economy via weaker exports, tourism, remittances and domestic demand. The economic and social costs of a widespread outbreak could be large, against the backdrop of a frail healthcare system and inadequate social safety nets, as well as already low international reserves and a fragile banking system. The measures to contain and alleviate the effects of the pandemic open up sizeable BOP and fiscal financing gaps in the near term.
    Keywords: Rapid Credit Facility (RCF);Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI);Credit;External sector;Macroprudential policies and financial stability;Central banks;Flexible exchange rates;ISCR,CR,DSSI,percent of GDP,RCF,CBM,Proj
    Date: 2020–07–02

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