nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒08‒10
24 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Why are boys falling behind? Explaining gender gaps in school attainment in Sri Lanka By Rozana Himaz; Harsha Aturupane
  2. Chinese Entrepreneurship in Indonesia: A Business Demography Approach By Pierre van der Eng
  3. kasus pencurian By Umar, Takbir
  4. Heterogenous Effects of Visa Exemption Policy on International Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from Indonesia By Muhammad Halley Yudhistira; Yusuf Sofiyandi; Witri Indriyani; Andhika Putra Pratama
  5. Income Inequality and Ethnic Cleavages in Malaysia: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (1984-2014) By Muhammed Abdul Khalid; Li Yang
  6. Gender, crop diversification, and nutrition in irrigation catchment areas in the central dry zones in Myanmar: Implications for agricultural development support By Ragasa, Catherine; Mahrt, Kristi; Aung, Zin Wai; Lambrecht, Isabel; Scott, Jessica
  7. The Impacts of Farmland Expropriation on Vietnam's Rural Households By Le, Kien; Nguyen, My
  8. Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia By Lie, Denny
  9. Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis By Majdeline El Rayess; Avril Halstead; Jason Harris; John Ralyea; Alexander F. Tieman
  10. The Turning Tide: How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates? By Bo Jiang; Tahsin Saadi Sedik
  11. Forecasting Singapore GDP using the SPF data By Xie, Tian; Yu, Jun
  12. The methane footprint of nations: Stylized facts from a global panel dataset By Fernández-Amador, Octavio; Francois, Joseph; Oberdabernig, Doris; Tomberger, Patrick
  14. Introduction of Bond Market: Would it be a possible Solution for Bangladesh? By Rahman, Md. Nafizur; Nower, Nowshin; Abbas, Syed Mahdee; Nahian, Abdullah Hill; Tushar, Md. Raqibul Hasan
  15. Students’ Perception on Instructor Bullying in a Local College in Zambales, Philippines By Asio, John Mark Ramos; Gadia, Ediric D.
  16. The nutrition transition in Vietnam: some recent empirical insights By Michel Simioni
  17. The Financial Inclusion Landscape in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Dozen Key Findings By Sarwat Jahan; Jayendu De; Fazurin Jamaludin; Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon; Cormac Sullivan
  18. The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy By Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov
  19. Anchor Me: The Benefits and Challenges of Fiscal Responsibility By Serhan Cevik
  20. What drives shariah (islamic) stock index? a case study of Malaysia By Anuar, Khairul; Masih, Mansur
  21. Religion in Economic History: A Survey By Sascha O. Becker; Jared Rubin; Ludger Woessmann
  22. Le panier bleu : un outil pour accélérer la transition numérique et écologique du Québec By Henri-Paul Rousseau
  23. The Blue Basket: A Tool to FastTrack Quebec’s Digital and Ecological Transition By Henri-Paul Rousseau
  24. Islam and the State: Religious Education in the Age of Mass Schooling∗ By Samuel Bazzi; Masyhur Hilmy; Benjamin Marx

  1. By: Rozana Himaz; Harsha Aturupane
    Abstract: A trend that is increasingly common in developed countries and middle income countries such as Thailand, South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka is that females outperform males in terms of attainment at school and enrolment in higher education, on average. Alarmingly in countries such as Sri Lanka and Thailand, households also seem to allocate significantly higher resources towards girls' education rather than boys’ (Himaz, 2010, Wongmonta and Glewwe, 2017). This paper looks at attainment in mathematics among a sample of 12 year olds in Sri Lanka to see to what extent parental aspirations, teacher attitudes as well as school-based management programs, inter alia, can explain gender differentials disfavouring boys. The paper finds that although teacher attitudes and parental aspirations are significantly lower for boys, these factors -as we measure them- do not sufficiently explain the attainment gap. Much of the gap remains ‘unexplained’ and is due to differences in returns to endowments. The paper argues that positive discrimination of men in the labour market and bottle necks in higher-education may be important in understanding the unexplained component.
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Pierre van der Eng
    Abstract: This paper analyses the demography of 1,600 registered firms owned and/or operated by ethnic Chinese businessmen in Indonesia during 1890-1940 in search of generalizable indications of Schumpeterian entrepreneurship. The population of firms increased significantly since 1890, before many went out of business in the 1920s and a new generation of firms and entrepreneurs emerged. By 1910 most firms were active in trade, but this categorisation takes insufficient account of their diverse business activities. During 1910-1940 the share of firms in other industries increased. Several were active in finance, taking deposits and financing business ventures. In the 1930s, the average equity value of the enterprises more than doubled, reflecting diversification into more capital-intensive operations, particularly manufacturing. These changes in the population of firms refute the perception that ethnic Chinese businessmen were not Schumpeterian entrepreneurs.
    Keywords: Business demography, entrepreneurship, Chinese, Indonesia, Southeast Asia
    JEL: L10 L20 N85
    Date: 2020–07
  3. By: Umar, Takbir
    Abstract: Dalam agama islam kejahatan sangat tidak di anjurkan bahkan sampai mendapat ganjaran baik secara fisik maupun batin. Seperti halnya kasus pencurian, maraknya kasus pencurian di berbagai manca Negara mengakibatkan angka kejahatan atau kriminalitas di seluruh dunia meningkat pesat .seperti halnya negara Indonesia yang dimana angka kriminalitas pada tahun 2019 mencapai 53.360 kasus (yang dikutip dari Kepala Kepolisian RI Jenderal Idham Aziz) dan Indonesian masih dalam posisi menengah angka kriminalitas di seluruh Indonesia. Dalam agama islam terdapat hadis yang mengatur tentang pencurian yang dimana Allah SWT Berfirman: “ Hai orang-orang yang beriman, janganlah kamu saling memakan harta sesamamu dengan jalan yang batil, kecuali dengan jalan perniagaan yang berlaku dengan suka sama suka diantara kamu. [An-Nisa’/4:29].
    Date: 2020–07–19
  4. By: Muhammad Halley Yudhistira (Institute for Economic and Social Research Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Yusuf Sofiyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Witri Indriyani (Cluster Research of Urban and Transportation Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Andhika Putra Pratama (Institute for Economic and Social Research Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI))
    Abstract: We examined the potential heterogeneous impact of implementing a series of visa-exemption policies on foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia by exploiting a rich dataset of monthly series of foreign tourist arrivals, by country and by port of entry between January 2014 and December 2018. This is the first study in providing empirical evidence of the heterogenous impact of a country’s visa-exemption policy across tourist’s origins and within-country destinations. Using a panel data approach, our estimates showed that while the policy increased monthly foreign tourist arrivals by 5% on average, the effect was evident for non-traditional destinations only. The policy also potentially provided a diversion effect between destinations, such that created an adverse effect on the traditional destinations of Indonesia. Our estimates also suggest a heterogenous impact at the continent level, and an 8% higher impact per year after the policy’s introduction, which was relatively lower than has been found in other studies. The findings imply that the visa-exemption policy is not a one-size-fits-all policy in attracting international tourist arrivals.
    Keywords: visa exemption — foreign tourist arrivals — Indonesia — panel
    JEL: L83 Z32 Z38
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Muhammed Abdul Khalid (University of Malaysia); Li Yang (PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we document the evolution of income inequality in Malaysia, not only at the national level (for the period of 1984-2014) but also by ethnic group (for the period of 2002-2014). We combine information obtained from national accounts, household surveys, fiscal data, and demographic statistics. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to produce inequality measurements of Malaysia, which are fully consistent with the national accounts. Our research shows that despite Malaysia's exceptional economic growth rate, its growth has been inclusive. For the period of 2002 – 2014, the real income growth for the bottom 50% is the highest (5.2%), followed by the middle 40% (4.1%), the top 10% (2.7%) and then the top 1% (1.6%). However, while average growth rates are positive across all ethnic groups (Bumiputera 4.9%, Indians 4.8%, and Chinese 2.7%), the highest growth of real income per adult accrued to the Bumiputera in the top 1% (at 8.3%), which sharply contrasts the much lower growth rate of the Indians (at 3.4%) and negative income growth rates of the Chinese (at -0.6%). Despite the negative growth rate, the Chinese still account for the lion's share in the top 1%. In 2014, 60% of the adults in the top 1% income group are Chinese, while 33% Bumiputera, and 6% Indians (compared to 2002, in which the top 1% consists of 72% Chinese, 24% Bumiputera, and 3% Indians). We conclude that in this period, Malaysia's growth features an inclusive redistribution between income classes, but with a twist between racial groups.
    Keywords: Income Inequality,Ethnic Cleavages,Malaysia,Distributional National Accounts,DINA World Inequality Lab
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Ragasa, Catherine; Mahrt, Kristi; Aung, Zin Wai; Lambrecht, Isabel; Scott, Jessica
    Abstract: This report describes the baseline data collected from 1,835 men and women respondents in 998 households in two irrigation sites in the central dry zone in Myanmar to help diagnose, design, and test interventions to enhance the Myanmar Agricultural Development Support Project’s impacts on gender equality and nutrition. Baseline data show large gender gaps, in which fewer women than men achieved adequacy in all 11 indicators of empowerment. Eighty-nine percent of women versus 64 percent of men respondents were not empowered, and 66 percent of dual-adult households have gender gaps. The main contributors of disempowerment among women were high tolerance and acceptance of intimate partner violence, lack of work balance, and low membership in groups, especially influential groups. Although 95 percent of respondents owned smartphones, women were less likely than men to access Internet or social media through their phones. Thirty-nine percent of respondents received rice-related information and half received health-related information. Nine to 14 percent of respondents attended agriculture- or health-related training courses. Women were significantly less likely to receive agriculture and nutrition-related information and training than men. The dietary diversity score, a common indicator of diet quality and a good proxy for nutrition, is low in the sample. The individual dietary diversity score was 4.32, with no significant difference between women and men and no major differences between irrigation water users and other households. Dairy, nuts and seeds, eggs, vitamin-A-rich fruits and vegetables, and other fruits are not commonly or frequently consumed by a majority of respondents. Beans and dark leafy vegetables, which are relatively abundant in the study context, are consumed by only 38–48 percent of the respondents on a daily basis. Nutrition education highlighting dietary diversity can help the sample communities achieve better nutrition. Overall, most women and men in the sample communities employ good sanitation practices, but more people need to be sensitized on proper garbage disposal, drinking water treatment, and proper and more frequent handwashing.
    Keywords: MYANMAR; BURMA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; ASIA; empowerment; gender; women; women's empowerment; irrigation; technology; internet; mobile phones; nutrition; water treatment; crops; arid zones; diversification; crop diversification; dietary diversity
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Le, Kien; Nguyen, My
    Abstract: The expropriation of agricultural land to provide new land for industrial and urban expansion, referred to as compulsory acquisition, is prevalent in developing countries. Using Vietnam as a laboratory, this study evaluates the impacts of losing farmland through compulsory acquisition on household welfare and reaches the following findings. A 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of land expropriated results in a 2.2% decrease in household welfare proxied by food expenditure. Besides, politically unconnected and ethnic minority households are disproportionately vulnerable. The adverse welfare effect could take up to 10 years to evaporate. The reduction in household welfare is attributable to the decline in agricultural income and the inability to participate in the non-agricultural labor market. Other aspects of household behavior following compulsory acquisition are also explored, such as saving, social capital, labor, and capital allocation.
    Keywords: Land expropriation, rural households, Vietnam
    JEL: J22 O12 O13 R28
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Lie, Denny
    Abstract: This paper studies the implications of state-dependent pricing in a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Indonesia. I show that variations in the timing and frequency of price adjustment inherent in a state-dependent pricing assumption could have important implications for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia. This extensive margin effect produces disparities in the conditional variance decompositions and the impulse responses to various shocks responsible for business cycle fluctuations. An investigation into the impact of COVID-19 pandemic shocks indicates that such variations non-trivially affect the analysis on the appropriate degree of monetary policy response to the shocks. A state-dependent pricing model would call for a greater degree of monetary easing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, than that prescribed by a traditional time-dependent pricing model. The broader implication is clear. For modelling and analyzing the Indonesian economy, in which the inflation rates have historically been moderate-to-high and highly variable, state-dependent pricing is an essential model feature.
    Keywords: state-dependent pricing; monetary policy; DSGE model for Indonesia; COVID-19 pandemic
    Date: 2020–07
  9. By: Majdeline El Rayess; Avril Halstead; Jason Harris; John Ralyea; Alexander F. Tieman
    Abstract: Public sector balance sheets (PSBS) provide a framework for comprehensive and deep analysis of fiscal risks and policies. To illustrate these benefits, this paper shows how PSBS analysis can be applied to assess risks to Indonesia’s public sector stemming from its public corporations. The paper also shows that the government’s plans to finance a ramp-up in public investment with additional tax revenue increases both economic growth and public wealth.
    Keywords: Financial soundness indicators;Economic growth;Interest rate increases;Real interest rates;Public financial corporations;Public Sector Balance Sheet,Intertemporal Fiscal Balances,Public Investment,Indonesia.,intertemporal,tax-financed,public corporation,percent of GDP,non-financial
    Date: 2019–04–24
  10. By: Bo Jiang; Tahsin Saadi Sedik
    Abstract: Using a new firm-level dataset with comprehensive information on Asian firms’ FX liabilities, we show that Asia’s nonfinancial corporate sector is vulnerable to a tightening of global financial conditions. Higher global interest rates and exchange rate depreciation increase the probability of default of Asian firms. A 30 percent currency depreciation is associated with a two-notch downgrade in the corporate credit rating (e.g., from A to BBB+), resulting in 7 percent of Asian firms falling into bankruptcy. But the impact is nonlinear—as the firms’ FX liability increases, the balance sheet channel of exchange rate offsets, then dominates, the competitiveness channel. The balance sheet channel offsets the competitiveness channel when the share of U.S. dollar debt is between 10 and 20 percent. We also find that currency depreciation increases firm-level investment on average, but for firms with the share of FX liabilities above 20 percent, investment contracts with depreciation.
    Keywords: Nominal effective exchange rate;Real effective exchange rates;Exchange rate policy;Real exchange rates;Exchange rate adjustments;Asian Emerging Markets,Corporate Debt,Corporate Distress,Global Finacnial Conditions,Exchange Rate Depreciation.,currency depreciation,bond issuance,firm 's balance,corporates,U.S. dollar
    Date: 2019–05–06
  11. By: Xie, Tian (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Yu, Jun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: In this article, we use econometric methods, machine learning methods, and a hybrid method to forecast the GDP growth rate in Singapore based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We compare the performance of these methods with the sample median used by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). It is shown that the relationship between the actual GDP growth rates and the forecasts from individual professionals is highly nonlinear and non-additive, making it hard for all linear methods and the sample median to perform well. It is found that the hybrid method performs the best, reducing the mean squared forecast error (MSFE) by about 50% relative to that of the sample median.
    Date: 2020–07–14
  12. By: Fernández-Amador, Octavio; Francois, Joseph; Oberdabernig, Doris; Tomberger, Patrick
    Abstract: We develop a global dataset of methane inventories derived from production, sup-ply use (fi nal production), and consumption activities for 1997-2014, disaggregated to 78 countries/regions. Our dataset extends existing data on methane emissions to 2014 and allows to trace emissions embodied in international trade in intermediates and in fi nal goods. Anthropogenic emissions are quantitatively important for global warming and increased by about 18% from 1997 to 2014. The bulk of produced emissions is attributable to developing economies, though a considerable amount is exported mainly via manufactured goods to high income countries, which are net-importers of methane. Trade-embodied emissions increased by 8% more than nationally produced emissions during 1997-2014, with the strongest increase experienced by China, India, and Indonesia. Decompositions of the growth rate of emissions over this period suggest that methane efficiency improved but that it was outweighed by the effect of economic and population growth in low- and middle-income countries. In high-income countries, however, methane efficiency gains outweighed the effect of economic and population growth.
    Keywords: decomposition analysis; emissions embodied in trade; methane emissions; methane footprints; MRIO analysis; production-based inventories
    JEL: F18 F64 O44 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2019–11
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    Date: 2020–04–28
  14. By: Rahman, Md. Nafizur; Nower, Nowshin; Abbas, Syed Mahdee; Nahian, Abdullah Hill; Tushar, Md. Raqibul Hasan
    Abstract: This study aims at investigating the prospects of a bond market in Bangladesh. Most of the developed and developing economies have an active and successful bond market. But Bangladesh despite being one of the fastest-growing economies, does not have an active bond market. Hence, this study was designed to investigate the impact of a bond market on the economic growth of Asian countries and what are the prospects and challenges in Bangladesh. To investigate the benefits of a bond market in Bangladesh, this study examined the relationship between bond market return and economic growth of 4 Asian economies which included, India, Indonesia, Hong Kong, and Japan. The average annual yield of 10-year bonds was used as the independent variable and the annual GDP growth rate of these countries was used as the dependent variable in the econometric model. Data for the last 20 years from 2000 to 2019 were used for all the variables. The Unit Root Test showed that 3 variables were stationary at first difference and the other five variables were stationary at level. The Johansen Co-integration test identified the long-run association among the variables indicating the long-run relationship between bond market return and economic growth. Granger Causality revealed a bi-directional relationship for India; unidirectional relationship for Indonesia (Bond GDP growth) and Japan (GDP Growth Bond); and no unidirectional or bidirectional relationship among the bond market return and economic growth of Hong Kong. The various new projects, the overextension of the banking sector, and perhaps the overall good condition of the economy has created the perfect situation to develop a bond market in Bangladesh. As there are conditions that provide advantages in bond market creation, there are also various challenges that the government must overcome. Some of the most important challenges to clear up are the underdeveloped tax system, the illiquid or absent secondary market, the alternative source of debt, and the overall lack of investors. Considering the various developed bond markets these policy implications could seriously aid the development process.
    Keywords: GDP growth, Johansen Co integration Test, Granger Causality, Bond Market
    JEL: G1 G15 G2 O4
    Date: 2020–05
  15. By: Asio, John Mark Ramos (Gordon College); Gadia, Ediric D.
    Abstract: Instructor bullying in the higher institution is an area given with the least attention and significance in the local context since bullying is affixed and attributed to with the students only. This descriptive study aimed to determine the perception of students on instructor bullying in a local college in Zambales, Philippines. There were 110 respondents in the study who enrolled and studied in the academic year of 2017-2018, which were conveniently selected. An instrument was created by the researchers and subjected to validity and reliability to a panel of experts. The data were then tabulated and analyzed using SPSS 20. The study found that the respondents were moderately aware of instructor bullying by college students. There was also a significant difference found when respondents were grouped according to sex. The rest of the demographic variables like age, year level and college did not produce a significant result. The implications drawn from the study can be considered for the basis of the policy included in the student handbook.
    Date: 2019–07–29
  16. By: Michel Simioni (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques)
    Date: 2018–06–11
  17. By: Sarwat Jahan; Jayendu De; Fazurin Jamaludin; Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon; Cormac Sullivan
    Abstract: Financial inclusion is a multidimensional concept and countries have chosen diverse methods of enhancing financial inclusion with varying degrees of results. The heterogeneity of financial inclusion is particularly striking in the Asia-Pacific region as member countries range from those that are at the cutting edge of financial technology to others that are aiming to provide access to basic financial services. The wide disparity is not only inter-country but also intra-country. The focus of this paper is to take stock of the current state of financial inclusion in the Asia-Pacific region by highlighting twelve stylized facts about the state of financial inclusion in these countries. The paper finds that the state of financial inclusion depends on several factors, but a holistic approach calibrated to specific country conditions may lead to greater financial inclusion.
    Keywords: Financial inclusion;Financial services;Financial institutions;Financial infrastructure;Macroprudential policies and financial stability;Emerging Markets,Developing Asia,Pacific Islands,Asia-Pacific,Asia-Pacific region,financial development,Asia-Pacific country,financial service
    Date: 2019–04–19
  18. By: Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov
    Abstract: Industrial policy is tainted with bad reputation among policymakers and academics and is often viewed as the road to perdition for developing economies. Yet the success of the Asian Miracles with industrial policy stands as an uncomfortable story that many ignore or claim it cannot be replicated. Using a theory and empirical evidence, we argue that one can learn more from miracles than failures. We suggest three key principles behind their success: (i) the support of domestic producers in sophisticated industries, beyond the initial comparative advantage; (ii) export orientation; and (iii) the pursuit of fierce competition with strict accountability.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Commodity markets;Economic policy;Economic analysis;Economic theory;Industrial policy,technology,innovation,growth,diversification,Cherif,Rodrik,Taiwan province,productivity gain,government failure
    Date: 2019–03–26
  19. By: Serhan Cevik
    Abstract: This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of implementing a rule-based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study. It estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016 and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis indicates that discretionary fiscal policy has been procyclical, and the degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years. While the national government’s non-binding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful, it does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle and necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. To this end, using stochastic simulations, this paper makes the case for a well-designed fiscal responsibility law that enshrines explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and long-term debt sustainability, and an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.
    Keywords: Economic stabilization;Fiscal policy;National budgets;Budgetary policy;Fiscal stimulus;procyclicality,structural budget balances,fiscal rules,output gap,countercyclical,budget balance,fiscal operation,rule-based
    Date: 2019–03–25
  20. By: Anuar, Khairul; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: Islamic finance has been rising rapidly as an alternative investment outlet since the subprime crisis. Although there are many papers on the determinants of conventional stock prices, there is relatively much less attention paid to the determinants of Shariah (Islamic) stock indices. This paper analyses the relationship between the major macroeconomic variables and the Shariah Stock Index. Malaysia is taken as a case study. This study examines the determinants of Shariah stock exchange and to what extent each variable influences the prices of the stocks. We use the standard time series method to analyse the data. The findings tend to indicate that inflation rate is the most leading macroeconomic variable followed by Shariah stock index. All other variables are led by them. That implies that inflation rate is the most important driver of Shariah stock
    Keywords: Islamic stock index, inflation rate, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 E44 G15
    Date: 2018–07–30
  21. By: Sascha O. Becker (Monash University; University of Warwick); Jared Rubin (Chapman University); Ludger Woessmann (ifo Institute, University of Munich)
    Abstract: This chapter surveys the recent social science literature on religion in economic history, covering both socioeconomic causes and consequences of religion. Following the rapidly growing literature, it focuses on the three main monotheisms—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—and on the period up to WWII. Works on Judaism address Jewish occupational specialization, human capital, emancipation, and the causes and consequences of Jewish persecution. One set of papers on Christianity studies the role of the Catholic Church in European economic history since the medieval period. Taking advantage of newly digitized data and advanced econometric techniques, the voluminous literature on the Protestant Reformation studies its socioeconomic causes as well as its consequences for human capital, secularization, political change, technology diffusion, and social outcomes. Works on missionaries show that early access to Christian missions still has political, educational, and economic consequences in present-day Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Much of the economics of Islam focuses on the role that Islam and Islamic institutions played in political-economy outcomes and in the “long divergence†between the Middle East and Western Europe. Finally, cross-country analyses seek to understand the broader determinants of religious practice and its various effects across the world. We highlight three general insights that emerge from this literature. First, the monotheistic character of the Abrahamic religions facilitated a close historical interconnection of religion with political power and conflict. Second, human capital often played a leading role in the interconnection between religion and economic history. Third, many socioeconomic factors matter in the historical development of religions.
    Keywords: Judaism; Christianity; Islam; Economic development; Education; Persecution;; Political Economy; Finance; Specialization; Trade
    JEL: Z12 N00 J15 I15 I25
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Henri-Paul Rousseau
    Abstract: L’idée du panier bleu est née de la volonté de relancer l’économie québécoise et de diminuer l’empreinte écologique de notre consommation par l’achat local en renforçant notamment le commerce électronique québécois. Mais ce panier bleu exigera beaucoup plus que la publication d’un répertoire de fournisseurs québécois et des efforts ont été entrepris par ses promoteurs pour mieux définir le projet. Ce texte souhaite contribuer à cette réflexion. Identifier si un produit ou un service est « québécois » est complexe Au Québec, comme ailleurs dans le monde, les produits et les services qui arrivent sur nos marchés sont le fruit du travail de designers, fournisseurs, fabricants et distributeurs dont les activités ne sont pas nécessairement situées au Québec. Dans les faits, les importations du Québec représentent 49,8 % de son PIB dont 34,3 % proviennent de pays étrangers et 15,5 % des autres provinces canadiennes. Dans un tel contexte, identifier si un produit ou un service est « québécois » devient très complexe. En effet, un bien ou un service offert sur le marché québécois peut à toutes les étapes intermédiaires de sa production et de sa distribution contenir tantôt des intrants locaux, tantôt des intrants importés. Par exemple, est-ce qu’un vêtement désigné par un créateur québécois, mais cousu au Vietnam se qualifierait ? Est-ce qu’un robot sophistiqué conçu au Québec mais assemblé au Mexique se qualifierait ? La rigueur est essentielle dans cet exercice sinon très rapidement les entreprises et les consommateurs québécois y verront trop de « blue washing » pour croire à la validité du panier bleu. Une identification « québécoise » du panier bleu rendue possible grâce aux technologies numériques Pour mesurer le contenu local d’un produit équivalent à sa valeur ajoutée, il faudrait colliger des données microéconomiques sur l’origine (locale ou importée) de tous ses intrants et leur contribution relative à chaque étape de la production et de la distribution de ce bien. En répétant cette opération pour tous les biens et services offerts, on saurait lesquels peuvent faire partie du panier bleu. Malheureusement on ne collige pas de telles informations, mais il serait possible de le faire en numérisant la TPS et la TVQ. La numérisation de la TPS et de la TVQ en utilisant les technologies de traçabilité permettraient de connaître l’origine détaillée des produits et des services et les technologies des registres distribués décentralisés (blockchain) permettraient de certifier leur pourcentage de contenu local. La numérisation de ces deux taxes serait par conséquent un excellent moyen pour bâtir l’infrastructure technologique du panier bleu. En effet, lorsque ces technologies sont implantées, le client paie sa facture incluant les taxes, et le montant des taxes est versé directement aux autorités fiscales et simultanément le compte du vendeur est crédité du montant net de la vente ; il en est de même pour tous les fournisseurs de ce détaillant ou de ce producteur. Tout est simultané et exécuté par des contrats intelligents, sans risque de fraude, et « toutes les informations pertinentes » sont enregistrées. La numérisation de la TPS et de la TVQ permettrait ainsi à Revenu Québec de connaître la valeur ajoutée, et donc le pourcentage de contenu local, de chacun des biens et des services offerts par les entreprises percevant la TPS et la TVQ sur son territoire. Ce pourcentage certifié pourrait être ajouté au Code QR qui donne également les informations de traçabilité du produit ou du service offert. Ce pourcentage certifié c’est l’instrument du panier bleu : un produit ou un service fabriqué à 100 % avec des intrants du Québec afficherait un panier bleu foncé, un autre à 60 % québécois, un panier d’un bleu plus pâle. Le panier bleu permettrait d’accélérer la transition numérique de nos entreprises, qui, une fois numérisées, seront plus efficientes et compétitives sur les marchés domestiques et extérieurs. Un panier bleu qui pourrait devenir la pierre angulaire d’une stratégie de transition écologique pour le Québec La numérisation procure également un bénéfice écologique important, trop souvent ignoré. Parce qu’elle fournit une pléthore d’informations sur les composantes et les origines de tous les intrants, mais aussi sur les processus de fabrication et de distribution, elle rend possible la mesure de l’empreinte écologique des entreprises. Ainsi on peut connaître la distance parcourue pour s’approvisionner en tel ou tel intrant, le type et la quantité d’énergie utilisée pour fabriquer un bien, ou de carburant pour le distribuer, la quantité de matière recyclée pour le fabriquer, ou s’il est lui-même recyclable. La révolution numérique devient ainsi un puissant instrument pour accélérer la transition écologique. En y ajoutant des teintes de vert un panier bleu pourrait devenir turquoise : un panier de produits et services écologiques fabriqués au Québec ! Évidemment, comme tout grand projet de politique publique, une analyse des coûts et des bénéfices devra effectivement être conduite, mais il importe avant tout de bien comprendre le contexte de ce projet. Il impose un virage culturel, organisationnel et financier qui requiert audace, prise de risques, beaucoup de capital et l’embauche de nouvelles compétences. Tout un chantier sur quelques années mais qui est à la hauteur des défis que nous impose la double transition numérique et écologique. Pour le bénéfice des générations futures, il faut construire non seulement des infrastructures physiques mais également des infrastructures numériques.
    Keywords: , Panier bleu,Transition numérique,Transition écologique,Québec
    Date: 2020–07–15
  23. By: Henri-Paul Rousseau
    Abstract: The idea of the Blue Basket was born out of a commitment to boost the Quebec economy and reduce the ecological footprint of our consumption through local purchasing, while strengthening Quebec’s e-commerce specifically. However, this Blue Basket will require much more than the publication of a directory of Quebec suppliers, and efforts have been undertaken by its proponents to better define the project. This text is intended to contribute to the reflection on the matter. Identifying whether a product or service is “Quebec made” and complex In Quebec, as anywhere else in the world, the products and services delivered on our markets are the work of designers, suppliers, manufacturers and distributors whose activities are not necessarily based in Quebec. Indeed, Quebec imports account for 49.8% of its GDP, of which 34.3% originate from foreign countries and 15.5% from other Canadian provinces. In such an environment, identifying whether a product or service is “Quebec” becomes very complex. Actually, a good or a service available on the Quebec market may, at all intermediate stages of production and distribution, include local and imported inputs. For example, would a garment made by a Quebec designer, but sewn in Vietnam be qualified? Would a sophisticated robot designed in Quebec but assembled in Mexico be eligible? Exactness is essential in this exercise, as otherwise, Quebec businesses and consumers will quickly experience too much “blue washing” to believe in the validity of the Blue Basket. A “Quebec” identification of the Blue Basket is possible through digital technologies To measure the local content of a product, equivalent to its value-added, microeconomic data should be collated on the source (local or imported) of all its inputs and their relative contribution at each stage of production and distribution of the product. By replicating this exercise for all goods and services available, it would be possible to determine which goods and services could be included in the Blue Basket. Unfortunately, such information is not collated, but it would be possible to collate it through a digitization of GST and QST. Digitizing GST and QST using traceability technologies would make it possible to determine the detailed source of goods and services, and decentralized distributed registry (blockchain) technologies would make it possible to certify their local content percentage. The digitization of both taxes would therefore be a great way to build the Blue Basket technology infrastructure. Indeed, when these technologies are implemented, the customer pays the bill including taxes, and the amount of the taxes is paid directly to tax authorities; the seller’s account is simultaneously credited with the net sale’s amount; the same applies to all suppliers for that retailer or producer. Everything is concurrent and executed via smart contracts, without any risk of fraud, and “all relevant information” is recorded. A “Quebec” identification of the Blue Basket is possible through digital technologies To measure the local content of a product, equivalent to its value-added, microeconomic data should be collated on the source (local or imported) of all its inputs and their relative contribution at each stage of production and distribution of the product. By replicating this exercise for all goods and services available, it would be possible to determine which goods and services could be included in the Blue Basket. Unfortunately, such information is not collated, but it would be possible to collate it through a digitization of GST and QST. Digitizing GST and QST using traceability technologies would make it possible to determine the detailed source of goods and services, and decentralized distributed registry (blockchain) technologies would make it possible to certify their local content percentage. The digitization of both taxes would therefore be a great way to build the Blue Basket technology infrastructure. Indeed, when these technologies are implemented, the customer pays the bill including taxes, and the amount of the taxes is paid directly to tax authorities; the seller’s account is simultaneously credited with the net sale’s amount; the same applies to all suppliers for that retailer or producer. Everything is concurrent and executed via smart contracts, without any risk of fraud, and “all relevant information” is recorded. The GST and QST digitization therefore help Revenu Québec determine the value-added, and thus the local content percentage, of the individual goods and services available from businesses collecting GST and QST in Revenu Québec’s jurisdiction. This certified content could be added to the QR Code, which also provides traceability information on the product or service available. This certified content is the instrument of the Blue Basket: a product or service 100% made from Quebec inputs would display a dark Blue Basket, and another 60% Quebec made, would carry a lighter Blue Basket. The Blue Basket would make it possible to fast-track the digital transition of our businesses, which, once digitized, will be more efficient and competitive on domestic and foreign markets. A Blue Basket that could become the cornerstone of an ecological transition strategy for Quebec Digitization also provides a significant ecological benefit that is too often ignored. Because it includes massive information on the components and origins of all inputs, in addition to manufacturing and distribution processes, it becomes possible to measure the ecological footprint of businesses. For example, we can find out how far an input is sourced, the type and amount of energy used to manufacture a good, or fuel used to distribute it, the amount of material recycled to make it, or whether it is itself recyclable. The digital revolution therefore becomes a powerful instrument for fast-tracking the ecological transition. By adding shades of green, a Blue Basket could become turquoise: a basket of ecological products and services made in Quebec! Obviously, as with any major public policy project, a cost-benefit analysis will indeed have to be completed; however, above all, it is important to understand the context of this project. This requires a cultural, organizational and financial shift, in addition to boldness, risk taking, a lot of capital and hiring of new skills. It will take several years to complete, but the project is equal to the challenges initiated by the dual digital and ecological transition. For the benefit of future generations, we must build not only physical but also digital infrastructures.
    Keywords: Blue Basket,Digital Transition,Ecological Transition,Quebec,
    Date: 2020–07–15
  24. By: Samuel Bazzi (Boston University, CEPR, NBER); Masyhur Hilmy (Boston University); Benjamin Marx (Sciences Po and CEPR)
    Abstract: Public schooling systems are an essential feature of modern states. These systems often developed at the expense of religious schools, which undertook the bulk of education historically and still cater to large student populations worldwide. This paper examines how Indonesia’s long-standing Islamic school system responded to the construction of 61,000 public elementary schools in the mid-1970s. The policy was designed in part to foster nation building and to curb religious influence in society. We are the first to study the market response to these ideological objectives. Using novel data on Islamic school construction and curriculum, we identify both short-run effects on exposed cohorts as well as dynamic, long-run effects on education markets. While primary enrollment shifted towards state schools, religious education increased on net as Islamic secondary schools absorbed the increased demand for continued education. The Islamic sector not only entered new markets to compete with the state but also increased religious curriculum at newly created schools. Our results suggest that the Islamic sector response increased religiosity at the expense of a secular national identity. Overall, this ideological competition in education undermined the nation-building impacts of mass schooling.
    Keywords: Religion, Education, Nation Building, Islam, School Competition
    JEL: H52 I25 N45 P16 Z12
    Date: 2020–04

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