|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Robert C. Feenstra; Chang Hong |
| Abstract: | In December 2019, the United States and China reached a Phase One trade agreement, under which China committed to purchase more imports from the United States: $12.5 billion more agricultural imports in 2020 and $19.5 billion more in 2021, as compared to 2017. We show that the most efficient way for China to increase its imports from the United States is to mimic the effect of an import subsidy. If China’s agricultural imports did not otherwise grow from their 2017 values, then the subsidies would need to be 42% and 59% to meet the 2020 and 2021 targets, respectively. These effective subsidies mean that China would divert agricultural imports away from other countries. We find that this trade diversion is especially strong for Australia and Canada, followed by Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. |
| JEL: | F14 F53 Q17 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27383&r=all |
| By: | Anand, Abhishek (Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge); Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | In last few years, several central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to boost domestic economy. However, such policies may have some unintended consequences for the emerging Asian markets (EAMs). The objective of this paper is to provide an assessment of the domestic and global implications of negative interest rate policy. We also present how the implications differ from that of quantitative easing (QE). The analysis shows that the impact NIRP is heterogeneous; with differential impacts for big Asian economies (India and Indonesia)and small trade dependent economies (STDE) (Hong Kong, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand). Nominal GDP and exports are adversely impacted in EMs in response to NIRP, especially in India and Indonesia. The inflation goes significantly high in EMs in response to plausible negative interest rates but the impact is much more severe for India and Indonesia than in STDEs. The local currencies also depreciate in all EAMs in response to negative interest rates. QE, on the other hand, has no significant impact on inflation but nominal GDP growth declines in EAMs. The currency appreciates and exports decline. The impact is much more severe in big emerging economies like India and Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Negative interest rate policy ; Quantitative easing ; emerging economies |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:20/307&r=all |
| By: | Mark Brooks; Rattiya S. Lippe; Hermann Waibel |
| Abstract: | Realistic poverty assessments necessitate high-quality household survey data. Such data provide the foundation for designing sound policies to sustainably reduce poverty. Despite of this, welfare measures from household surveys are often plagued by non-sampling errors in the form of non-response and measurement error. Current research, while generating important lessons, is often limited in scope and the majority of studies on determinants of data quality deal with quantifiable interviewer and respondent characteristics. A comprehensive study on data quality of an ongoing long-term household panel survey in Thailand and Vietnam is presented in this paper. Determinants drawn from respondent and interviewer characteristics, the interview and survey environment and interview paradata are found to have a significant effect on the overall quality of income-related data. We suggest that survey managers utilizing computerized questionnaires further develop and optimize validation and plausibility guidelines in order to minimize non-sampling errors. Furthermore, referring to validation data (e.g. from administrative records) during data processing is likely to be a promising approach in improving the identification of such errors. |
| Keywords: | Non-sampling error, Paradata, Household survey, Poverty assessments, Southeast Asia, TVSEP |
| JEL: | C83 I3 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tvs:wpaper:wp-019&r=all |
| By: | Ng, Jonathan Cho Kin |
| Abstract: | Food hawking businesses around the world largely contribute to the economy of countries and provides much needed jobs that feed employment, even though earnings are low. The food hawking business in Malaysia is under threat of extinction due to the reluctance of the next generation in taking over the food hawking businesses from the elderships. As research in the area of family business succession is scarce, this study serves to add to the theoretical aspect of the area. The purpose of this study was to analyse the effects of vending environment, operating hours, successor willingness, relationship among family members and preparation level of heir on the intention of family succession in the food hawking business in Malaysia. Leader’s approval was also studied as a potential moderator. The methodology used was a questionnaire survey study design with a sample size of 208, respondents were obtained via convenience sampling from Kuala Lumpur and Penang as hawkers are abundant in these two locations. Findings show that vending environment, successor willingness, relationship among family members and preparation level of heir have a significant effect on the intention of family succession in the food hawking business in Malaysia. Leader’s approval was found to be insignificant as a moderator. Operating hours was not significant, possibly due to the difference in importance placed by Malaysian hawkers in succession. |
| Date: | 2020–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:frenxi:8mdxe&r=all |
| By: | Persada, Pena; Gusti, Girang Permata |
| Abstract: | The writing of this book is motivated by the author's curiosity about the performance of a long-standing company, with a large number of assets and with a large number of branch offices and even received full support from the government of the Republic of Indonesia, but instead showed a disappointing performance. All the resources that are owned and with long-term experience can not be a guarantee that the company will have a good financial performance and can be accounted for in every financial statement preparation. History will continue to experience the same repetition and events in the future. It takes real effort if you want to change the situation for the better than before. Learning from the experiences of companies that are wrong in managing corporate risk management, the community and potential investors should have adequate knowledge when deciding to buy investment products. In order not to become a victim of the promotion method with the scheme gives a promise of great profits, but the result is a loss. The public must be aware and critical of the various offers made by the company's marketing, so as not to get caught up in investment schemes that provide big returns. Communities must invest their time in advance to be well informed so that they have sufficient knowledge when deciding to invest. This book provides an example of a case where the application of risk management is wrong, so the company is experiencing losses due to incorrect decisions. It is hoped that we can learn from the mistakes they have made. |
| Date: | 2020–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:2rvgx&r=all |
| By: | Vitor Gaspar; David Amaglobeli; Mercedes Garcia-Escribano; Delphine Prady; Mauricio Soto |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to estimate the additional annual spending required for meaningful progress on the SDGs in these areas. Our estimates refer to additional spending in 2030, relative to a baseline of current spending to GDP in these sectors. Toward this end, we apply an innovative costing methodology to a sample of 155 countries: 49 low- income developing countries, 72 emerging market economies, and 34 advanced economies. And we refine the analysis with five country studies: Rwanda, Benin, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Guatemala. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable development;Sustainable Development Goals (SDG);Development;Fiscal policy;Economic growth;Tax revenues;Government expenditures;Poverty reduction;Low-income developing countries;Emerging markets;Development policy;National income;Economic conditions;Sustainable Development Goals,Structure and Scope of Government,General,International Fiscal Issues,Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,Health and Economic Development,Education and Economic Development,Railroads and Other Surface Transportation: Autos,Buses,Trucks,and Water Carriers,Electric Utilities,low-income develop country,emerge market economy,SDG,advanced economy,world GDP |
| Date: | 2019–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:2019/003&r=all |
| By: | Ilzar Daud (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Tanjungpura, Pontianak, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | Objective - This study examines the influence of organizational culture and compensation on employee performance with work motivation as a mediating variable. This study was conducted at the State Owned Bank of Pontianak, Indonesia. Methodology/Technique - The population in this study is 150 employees from a State-Owned Bank. The sampling method uses census techniques so that the number of samples used is 150 employees. The research data was collected using a questionnaire which is then analyzed using a path analysis technique using SPSS software to examine the relationships among the constructs, which are: organizational culture, compensation, work motivation and employee performance. Findings - The results show that, in the first substructure, organizational culture and compensation have a significant influence on work motivation. In the second substructure, organizational culture, compensation and work motivation have a significant influence on employee performance. The path analysis results show that work motivation does not mediate the relationship between organizational culture and employee performance, whereas the relationship between compensation and employee performance is mediated by work motivation. Novelty - Previous studies have been carried out in many western countries, raising doubts about generalizations in the same research results in developing countries such as Indonesia. Therefore, the novelty is that this study is carried out in the context of developing countries, especially in the State-Owned Bank in West Kalimantan, Indonesia.Type of Paper - Empirical. |
| Keywords: | Organizational Culture; Compensation; Work Motivation; Employee Performance. |
| JEL: | L22 M12 M19 |
| Date: | 2020–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr247&r=all |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Win, Myat Thida; Masias, Ian |
| Abstract: | Agricultural equipment retailers (ERs) play an essential role in meeting the demand for a diverse set of machines and equipment at affordable prices that are needed for the heterogeneous agricultural production environments in Myanmar. ERs can be particularly sensitive to bottlenecks in trade flows and internal logistical disruptions that affect their inventory management. Given their close linkages with mechanization service providers, the financial and supply challenges that ERs face can have repercussions on the provision of mechanization services as well. The COVID-19 pandemic in Myanmar and the policy responses to it have affected key aspects of the business operations of ERs. Measures to support equipment retailers and to ensure the access of buyers to their equipment and services should be guided by an understanding of the situation on the ground. This policy note uses qualitative findings from a rapid phone survey of ERs across Myanmar. |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, equipment, farm equipment, supply chains, policies, sales, arid zones, Covid-19, retailers, agricultural equipment retailers (ERs), agricultural equipment sales, equipment availability, equipment price |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myanpn:9&r=all |
| By: | Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | We quantified influences of Confucianism on gender inequality in present-day Vietnam. We used the number (or density) of the most successful test takers in the Vietnamese imperial examinations (1075–1919) in a given district as a proxy for mastering the subject of Confucianism. Using an instrumental variable approach, we considered possible impacts on sex ratio and educational attainment of women relative to men, based on test score and population census data. We found that Confucianism has a long lasting impact on gender inequality. The results also suggested that women tended to try harder, perhaps as a countermeasure against discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Confucianism, Gender inequality, Sex ratio, Education, Vietnam, J16, N35, Z1, I14, I24 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000180&r=all |
| By: | Muin, Muhamad Fathul (Badan Pusat Statistik) |
| Abstract: | BUMN memiliki peranan penting sebagai pilar ekonomi nasional. Salah satu tujuan pendirian BUMN adalah menjadi sumber pendanaan bagi negara dalam bentuk pajak dan dividen. Secara umum, kontribusi BUMN terhadap penerimaan negara memiliki tren positif. Namun, kerugian dan potensi kebangkrutan masih menjadi tantangan bisnis hingga saat ini. Oleh karena itu, studi tentang profitabilitas masih relevan dan penting untuk dilakukan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menganalisis kinerja keuangan BUMN dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi profitabilitas. Metode yang digunakan yaitu regresi data panel terhadap 118 perusahaan selama tahun 2012-2016. Variabel yang digunakan terdiri dari profitabilitas (return on assets), pertumbuhan aset (total asset growth), likuiditas (current ratio), efektivitas dan efisiensi manajemen aset (total assets turnover), serta liabilitas (debt to equity ratio). Setelah memangkas data outlier sebanyak 10 perusahaan serta melakukan uji statistik lainnya, model yang diperoleh adalah fixed effect model (FEM). Efek dari total asset growth, current ratio, dan total assets turnover adalah positif dan signifikan terhadap return on asset. Sementara itu, pengaruh debt to equity ratio adalah positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap return on asset. Secara umum, model regresi ini mampu menjelaskan varians return on asset pada BUMN sebesar 92,40 persen. |
| Date: | 2020–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:3fyq2&r=all |
| By: | Chaohua Dong; Jiti Gao; Oliver Linton; Bin Peng |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the trending behaviour of COVID-19 data at country level, and draw attention to some existing econometric tools which are potentially helpful to understand the trend better in future studies. In our empirical study, we find that European countries overall flatten the curves more effectively compared to the other regions, while Asia & Oceania also achieve some success, but the situations are not as optimistic as in Europe. Africa and America are still facing serious challenges in terms of managing the spread of the virus and reducing the death rate. In Africa, the rate of the spread of the virus is slower and the death rate is also lower than those of the other regions. By comparing the performances of different countries, our results on the performance of different countries in managing the speed of the virus agree with Gu et al. (2020). For example, both studies agree that countries such as USA, UK and Italy perform relatively poorly; on the other hand, Australia, China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore perform relatively better. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2006.11060&r=all |
| By: | bahri, muhamad |
| Abstract: | The reservoir usually has multiple functions such as hydropower and water distribution for different end users. Multiple functions and multiple agents also mean there are tradeoffs among multiple functions among different end users. Through feedback loops, the system dynamics tools concern on the interdependency and the complexity of the nexus elements. This paper applies the system archetypes in investigating water-energy-food-land nexus (WEFLN) in the Jatiluhur reservoir, the largest reservoir in Indonesia. Using the system archetypes. It is found that there are growth engines to support industrial, residential, and fisheries sectors. However, water availability will be a crucial issue that possibly bounds the growth engines. This situation is called the limits to growth archetype. Another system archetype, the success to successful, is also identified. This archetype reminds us the distribution of water and power should be adjusted accordingly to sustain the growth in all sectors including industry, residence, and fisheries. |
| Date: | 2020–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c9b7d&r=all |
| By: | Etienne Romsom; Kathryn McPhail |
| Abstract: | This study provides an overview of the use of natural gas and liquefied natural gas in Asia, both historic, current, and with an outlook for the future. Traditionally, Asia has been a strong liquefied natural gas producing region as well as the premier liquefied natural gas market. This continues to be the case today, and it is expected to continue as well in the future. There are significant lessons to be obtained from the Asian gas market for other new liquefied natural gas producing nations and developing gas markets, such as Mozambique. |
| Keywords: | Energy, energy utilities, fuel, Gas, Liquefied natural gas, renewable resources |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-80&r=all |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Ragasa, Catherine; Wang, Michael; Ei Win, Hnin; Win, Khin Zin |
| Keywords: | MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, gender, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, employment, migration, women, empowerment, decision making, maternal and child health, social protection, health, Covid-19, COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP), informal work, household chores, cash transfer |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:myanpn:burmese4&r=all |
| By: | Afkar,Rythia; Yarrow,Noah Bunce; Surbakti,Soedarti; Cooper,Rachel Danielle |
| Abstract: | This study seeks to examine gender gaps and disability issues in education in Indonesia, and to suggest policy actions as well as future analytical and operational work to address these differences. Field visits were conducted to uncover drivers of gender differences, as well as issues of social inclusion, and to explore policy approaches to improve learning outcomes and educational achievement for all children. Secondary data analysis shows that Indonesia has demonstrated great progress on gender parity in education; however, the national averages mask important variations at the subnational level, including variations of significant male and female disadvantage between and within provinces. Women are still underrepresented in school and government leadership positions, as well as the workforce overall. Despite women making up the majority of the teaching workforce, men dominate the management and leadership roles in schools. The study also reveals significant challenges and offers policy recommendations to ensure inclusivity in education for children with disabilities. |
| Keywords: | Educational Sciences,Gender and Development,Social Cohesion,Inequality,Disability |
| Date: | 2020–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9282&r=all |
| By: | Devadas,Sharmila; Guzman,Jorge P.; Kim,Young Eun; Loayza,Norman V.; Pennings,Steven Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper studies economic growth in Malaysia, with the purpose of assessing the potential to attain the status and characteristics of a high-income country. Future economic growth is simulated under a business-as-usual baseline, where the growth drivers follow their historical or recent trends, and under different scenarios of reform, using the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM). Under the business-as-usual baseline, Malaysia's GDP growth is expected to decline from 4.5 to 2.0 percent over the next three decades, following the country's transition to high income in 2024 (which might be delayed due to the effects of COVID-19). This decline is partly due to demographics, but also a declining marginal product of private capital and slowing growth rates of total factor productivity and human capital. Strong reforms are required for Malaysia to grow beyond what is expected based on historical trends, especially for human capital, female labor force participation, and total factor productivity. In the strong reform scenario, based on growth drivers achieving a target corresponding to the 75th percentile of high-income countries, GDP growth is expected to have a substantially higher trajectory, reaching 3.6 percent by 2050. |
| Keywords: | Educational Sciences,Economic Growth,Industrial Economics,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Markets,Health Care Services Industry |
| Date: | 2020–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9278&r=all |
| By: | Janssen, Aljoscha (Singapore Management University); Shapiro, Matthew (Singapore Management university) |
| Abstract: | Limiting the spread of contagious diseases can involve both government-managed and voluntary efforts. Governments have a number of policy options beyond direct intervention that can shape individuals’ responses to a pandemic and its associated costs. During its first wave of COVID-19 cases, Singapore was among a few countries that attempted to adjust behavior through the public provision of detailed case information. Singapore’s Ministry of Health maintained and shared precise, daily information detailing local travel behavior and residences of COVID-19 cases. We use this transparency policy along with device-level cellphone data to quantify how local and national COVID-19 case announcements trigger differential behavioral changes. We find evidence that individuals are three times more responsive to outbreaks in granularly defined locales. Conditional on keeping infection rates at a manageable level, the results suggest economic value in this type of transparency by mitigating precautionary activity reductions. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Transparency; Precautionary behavior |
| JEL: | H12 I18 R50 |
| Date: | 2020–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1344&r=all |
| By: | Anderson, Kym |
| Abstract: | Asia's alcohol consumption, and its retail expenditure on each of beer, distilled spirits and grape wine, have more than doubled so far this century. In the process, the mix of beverages in Asia's consumption of alcohol has been converging on that of the west as wine's share rises. Since Asia's beverage production has not kept up with its expansion in demand, imports net of exports are increasingly filling the gap - especially for wine. This paper analyses trends in consumption and imports for the region and key Asian countries, and provides projections to 2025 using a new model of global beverage markets. |
| Keywords: | beverage market projections; Changes in beverage tastes; impacts of tax and trade policies; premiumization of alcohol consumption |
| JEL: | F14 F17 L66 Q13 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14389&r=all |
| By: | Nurulhasanah Abdul Rahman (School of Distance Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Penang, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Daisy Mui Hung Kee Author-2-Workplace-Name: School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Penang, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Ai Wah Tan Author-3-Workplace-Name: School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Penang, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | Objective - Leadership and innovation are two related concepts which have gained a lot of interest among researchers focusing on management and entrepreneurship. Research on these topics are important for the development of the dynamic workforce and are useful to various organisations. However, in the real world, the effectiveness of employee performance is considered as unsatisfactory meaning there is room for improvement. Methodology/Technique - Previous literature had found that Transformational Leadership and Team Innovation are among the key factors which can be used to improve employee performance. This study will examine and test the relationship between Transformational Leadership and Team Performance to understand how Team Innovation mediates this relationship. A total of 197 samples are collected from employees in Multinational Companies (MNC). The data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23.Findings - The findings indicate that Transformational Leadership has a significant positive impact on Team Performance. Further, Team Innovation mediates the relationship between Transformational Leadership and Team Performance. Novelty - The major implications of these findings are further explored. In particular, this paper contributes to leadership literature by recommending that team leaders aim to inspire and empower employees to achieve organizational goals. Type of Paper - Empirical |
| Keywords: | Transformational leadership; Innovation; Multinational Companies. |
| JEL: | M11 M15 M19 |
| Date: | 2020–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr244&r=all |
| By: | Ichiro Fukunaga; Manrique Saenz |
| Abstract: | A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy is used to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy rules when faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the model shows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectives accompanied by a well targeted counter-cyclical macroprudential policy yields better macroeconomic outcomes than a lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule under a wide range of assumptions. |
| Date: | 2020–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:20/83&r=all |
| By: | Mayuko Nakamaru (School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology); Ayumi Onuma (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | A major challenge in biodiversity management is overharvesting by unsustainable harvesters. If a scenario could be created where sustainable harvesters benefit more than the unsustainable ones, even in the short term, the issue of overharvesting would be solved. Then, everyone would follow the lead of sustainable harvesters. However, creating such a scenario is not an easy task; the difficulty is intensified if the habitat is open-access and a property rights system is not in place. There is a special case where sustainable harvesters are believed to gain more than unsustainable harvesters: swiftlets in Sarawak, Malaysia. Edible nests built by adult swiftlets are used as ingredients for a traditional luxurious soup in Chinese cuisine. A rise in nest prices has increased the instances of unsustainable harvesters wrongfully collecting nests along with the eggs and fledglings, which are then abandoned. Swiftlets live in caves and build nests on cave ceilings. It is known that swiftlets escape from cave ceilings when these harvesters take the nests, and they do not return to the same place. This ecological feature appears to work as the swiftlet's punishment against unsustainable harvesters. This paper constructs a stage-structured population model and examines the effect of property rights and the punishment by swiftlets on the population dynamics of the bird and on the economic return of both sustainable and unsustainable harvesters. Our findings are as follows: the punishment by swiftlets provides sustainable harvesters a higher short-term return than unsustainable harvesters under the property rights system, as long as swiftlets return to the cave after they escape from the unsustainable harvesters. While previous studies regarding the management of a commons have stressed the importance of rules and regulations for sustainable harvesting without considering the ecological uniqueness of each species, this study suggests that ecological exploration, and the discovery of ecological features are also essential for designing a sustainable framework. |
| Keywords: | the tragedy of the commons, property rights, indirect punishment by swiftlets, difference equations |
| JEL: | Q01 Q57 |
| Date: | 2020–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2020-011&r=all |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Giang, Long T. (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in income and employment loss in many countries around the world. Yet, hardly any formal study exists on household finance and future economic expectations in poorer countries. To fill in this gap, we implemented and analyzed a web-based rapid assessment survey immediately after the removal of lockdown measures in Vietnam, a lower-middle-income country that has received widespread recognition for its successful fight against the pandemic. We find that having a job is strongly and positively associated with better finance and more income and savings, as well as more optimism about the resilience of the economy. Further disaggregating employment into different types of jobs such as self-employment and jobs with permanent and short-term contracts, we find those with permanent job contracts to be more strongly associated with better assessments and fewer job worries. Individuals with good health and higher educational levels also have more positive evaluations for their current and future finance. These findings are relevant for post-outbreak economic policies, especially regarding the labor market in a developing country context. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, recession, labor market, wage work, household finance, Vietnam |
| JEL: | I1 I3 J01 J08 O1 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13315&r=all |
| By: | Mariya Brussevich; Era Dabla-Norris; Christine Kamunge; Pooja Karnane; Salma Khalid; Kalpana Kochhar |
| Abstract: | New technologies?digitalization, artificial intelligence, and machine learning?are changing the way work gets done at an unprecedented rate. Helping people adapt to a fast-changing world of work and ameliorating its deleterious impacts will be the defining challenge of our time. What are the gender implications of this changing nature of work? How vulnerable are women’s jobs to risk of displacement by technology? What policies are needed to ensure that technological change supports a closing, and not a widening, of gender gaps? This SDN finds that women, on average, perform more routine tasks than men across all sectors and occupations?tasks that are most prone to automation. Given the current state of technology, we estimate that 26 million female jobs in 30 countries (28 OECD member countries, Cyprus, and Singapore) are at a high risk of being displaced by technology (i.e., facing higher than 70 percent likelihood of being automated) within the next two decades. Female workers face a higher risk of automation compared to male workers (11 percent of the female workforce, relative to 9 percent of the male workforce), albeit with significant heterogeneity across sectors and countries. Less well-educated and older female workers (aged 40 and above), as well as those in low-skill clerical, service, and sales positions are disproportionately exposed to automation. Extrapolating our results, we find that around 180 million female jobs are at high risk of being displaced globally. Policies are needed to endow women with required skills; close gender gaps in leadership positions; bridge digital gender divide (as ongoing digital transformation could confer greater flexibility in work, benefiting women); ease transitions for older and low-skilled female workers. |
| Keywords: | Information technology;Technological innovation;Labor force participation;Gender equality;Gender;Automation, Technological Change, Jobs, Female Labor Force, Occupational Choice, Gender Equality |
| Date: | 2018–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:2018/007&r=all |
| By: | Ling, Gabriel Hoh Teck; Ho, Christina Mee Chyong |
| Abstract: | The health crisis of the COVID-19 outbreak has global impacts on humanity and the economy. Such pandemic effects also influence human behaviour; issues of panic buying (overbuying) and noncompliance with government orders and law among individuals are evident. However, the underlying understanding of such behaviours due to the pandemic remains unclear. Therefore, this perspective paper adopts the social dilemma theory and microeconomics concepts to analyse and explain the effects of COVID-19 on social behavioural reactions. It attempts to address the questions of what and why are the behaviours of individuals shown during the coronavirus pandemic and showcase how the theory is associated with the current social phenomena. Real scenarios based on media reporting from the sociodemographic context of Malaysia, concerning the following issues; (i) competition over daily essentials; (ii) self-honesty of individuals; and (iii) adherence to government policies and measures enforcement (governance) were discussed. A conceptual framework was developed to illustrate interrelationships between social dilemma concepts and the phenomena. In essence, due to fear, uncertainty, and greed, self-interest and opportunistic (defective/unethical) behaviours of most individuals prevailing over societal collective interest amid the pandemic have been prevalently observed in the above instances, although a cooperative choice can eventually result in a better outcome for everyone. Not only do these non-cooperative behaviours of individuals create inconveniences, dissatisfactions, and other forms of negative externalities, they also incentivise others to act selfishly, if no restrictions are imposed, which may eventually cause government intervention failures. This paper demonstrates the relevancy of the social dilemmas theory in better understanding fundamental human behavioural reactions amid the health crisis and the importance of incorporating the findings into government policymaking. These sociopsychological considerations help the government formulate holistic measures, namely stringent sanctions and monitoring enforcement, as well as incentivising cooperative and compliant behaviours of the public, which then contribute to curbing the COVID-19 pandemic more effectively. |
| Date: | 2020–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8duvx&r=all |
| By: | Fairlie, Robert W. (University of California, Santa Cruz) |
| Abstract: | Social distancing restrictions and demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter many small businesses, but there is very little early evidence on impacts. This paper provides the first analysis of impacts of the pandemic on the number of active small businesses in the United States using nationally representative data from the April 2020 CPS – the first month fully capturing early effects from the pandemic. The number of active business owners in the United States plummeted by 3.3 million or 22 percent over the crucial two-month window from February to April 2020. The drop in business owners was the largest on record, and losses were felt across nearly all industries and even for incorporated businesses. African-American businesses were hit especially hard experiencing a 41 percent drop. Latinx business owners fell by 32 percent, and Asian business owners dropped by 26 percent. Simulations indicate that industry compositions partly placed these groups at a higher risk of losses. Immigrant business owners experienced substantial losses of 36 percent. Female-owned businesses were also disproportionately hit by 25 percent. These findings of early-stage losses to small businesses have important policy implications and may portend longer-term ramifications for job losses and economic inequality. |
| Keywords: | small business, entrepreneurship, self-employment, COVID-19, coronavirus, shelter in place, social distancing |
| JEL: | J15 J16 L26 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13311&r=all |
| By: | Roger Kronenberg (Consultants at the Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, UNESCAP); Ulukbek Usubalie (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, UNESCAP); Tientip Subhanij (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, UNESCAP) |
| Abstract: | Financial integration brings much benefits but at the same time some associated costs. In developing country context, such trade-off is even more pronounced for policy consideration. This paper aims to systematically analyze financial landscape in SPECA countries as well as its financial integration potential, drawing on the experience of ASEAN. It is one of the first paper on financial integration to critically analyze SPECA financial landscape in this context. The paper finds that Financial interlinkages among SPECA financial systems remain very weak due to low economic interlinkages. As economic integration and strong domestic financial sector are fundamental preconditions for any successful financial integration, the highest priority for some SPECA countries are to complete the rehabilitation of weak banks, strengthen supervisory practices, and improve the legal frameworks in order to foster the development of strong banking sectors. A key lesson learned from ASEAN experience is that regional integration is a very long process which requires highest political commitment and appropriate sequencing of financial liberalization. Given the current stage of economic development of the SPECA countries, and particularly in the wake of weak banks, one of the priority areas for enhancing financial interlinkages among SPECA countries should be in facilitating the expansion of financially strong and well-managed banks, as the cross-border presence of strong regional banks can help improve the banking and credit culture in countries where it has been weakest. In this context, lessons could be drawn from ASEAN banking integration and seek capacity building for actual implementation. |
| Keywords: | Financial Integration, SPECA, Financial Landscape |
| JEL: | F36 F62 E65 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:wpmpdd:wp/20/08&r=all |
| By: | Shurojit Chatterji (Singapore Management University); Atsushi Kajii (Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | We study a simple two period economy with no uncertainty and complete markets where agents trade based on forecasts about the second period spot price. We propose as our solution concept a set of forecasts with the following properties: there exist (heterogenous) forecasts contained in this set that lead to efficient allocations, the set contains only those forecasts that correspond to some efficient equilibrium, and finally that the forecasts assign positive probability to the actual market clearing spot price. We call such a set of prices an efficient equilibrium with ambiguity, and interpret it as a generalization of Radner equilibrium that delivers efficient allocations under forecasts that possess a self-fulfilling property that is weaker than perfect foresight. |
| JEL: | D51 D53 D61 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upd:utmpwp:024&r=all |
| By: | Tien Manh Vu (Asian Growth Research Institute); Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | We investigated the impact of individuals who passed the Vietnamese imperial examinations (1075-1919) on the present-day quantity and quality of education in their home districts. We layered the 2009 Population and Housing Census and the 2009 National Entrance Exams to University (NEEU) test scores on the geographical distribution of imperial test takers' home districts. We constructed a novel instrumental variable representing the average distance between the examinees' home districts and the corresponding imperial examination venues. We found a persistent legacy in the average years of schooling, literacy rate, school attendance rate, NEEU test scores, and primary school dropout rate. |
| Keywords: | Education, Human Capital, Imperial Examination, Historical Legacy, Vietnam |
| JEL: | I25 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2020-012&r=all |
| By: | Jiangtao Li (National University of Singapore); Piotr Dworczak (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE); Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | We study the design of mechanisms involving agents that have limited strategic sophistication. The literature has identified several notions of simple mechanisms in which agents can determine their optimal strategy even if they lack cognitive skills such as predicting other agents' strategies (strategy-proof mechanisms), contingent reasoning (obviously strategy-proof mechanisms), or foresight (strongly obviously strategy-proof mechanisms). We examine whether it is optimal for the mechanism designer who faces strategically unsophisticated agents to offer a mechanism from the corresponding class of simple mechanisms. We show that when the designer uses a mechanism that is not simple, while she loses the ability to predict play, she may nevertheless be better off no matter how agents resolve their strategic confusion. |
| Keywords: | Simple mechanisms, complex mechanisms, robust mechanism design, dominant-strategy mechanisms, obviously strategy-proof mechanisms, strongly obviously strategy-proof mechanisms |
| JEL: | D71 D82 D86 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:42&r=all |
| By: | Septyani, Yessy; Dede, Moh. (Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of regional development is to improve the standard of living and welfare of the community. Therefore, local governments must strive to improve the welfare of the community. Improving community welfare can be done through developing existing potential through superior commodities. The purpose of this study was to find out the analysis of the superior primary out the superior primary sector of Sragen District and its spatial distribution in 2016- 2017. The method used in this study is to use Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ) and Geographic Information System (SIG). The data used in the form of Sragen Regency primary commodity production data in 2016-2017 and primary commodity production data for Central Java ProvinceS 2016-2017. From the result if the analysis, it can be concluded that from the result of DLQ, the primary sector which is the leading commodity is green beans, large chillies, tomatoes, kale, eggplant, watermelon, bananas and aquaculture. Wheareas based on thr geographich information system approach model shows that superior primary commodity of green beans is spread in the Tanon Region. Chili spread in the Kedawung area, Tanon, Plupuh, Gemolong, Gondang, Kalijambe, Karangmalang, Masaran, Miri, Ngrampal, Sambungmacan, Sambirejo, Sumberlawang and Sukodono. Tomatoes spread in the Gemolong area, Sidoharjo and Tanon. Kale spread in the Miri area, Mondokan, Sukodono. Eggplant spread in the Mondokan area, Sambungmacan and Tangen. Semangka tersebar di wilayah Plupuh and Sumberlawang. Watermelon spread in the Plupuh dan Sumberlawang area. Bananas spread in the Gemolong, Gesi, Gondang, Jenar, Kalijambe, Kedawung, Masaran, Miri, Mondokan, Ngrampal, Plupuh, Sambirejo, Sambungmacan, Sukodono, Sumberlawang, Tangen and Tanon. |
| Date: | 2019–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:vez8d&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Usman M. Usman (University of Malaya, Malaysia); Xuan V. Vo (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The novel Coronavirus has spread internationally to more than two hundred countries and territories. At the same time, human trafficking in girls and women constitutes a global oppression in virtually all nations either as the source, transit, or destination. The feminist investigators have it that women are in destitute situations, which is a substantial trait of exploitation, especially in the light of the present Covid-19 pandemic. There is practically no research on the relevance of the current deadly respiratory disease to human trafficking from the gender dimension. This study fills the identified gap by providing theoretical and practical perspectives on children, women, and sex trafficking. It is a qualitative inquiry that employs process tracing as a primary research instrument. To better understand the present plague and gender situation, secondary data which are utilized consist of articles, books, reports, and integrated statistics. This research is arguably the first attempt that creates data evidence connecting the pandemic to female sexual exploitation. The paper illustrates that a policy is needed that will strengthen the capacity of existing structures in the fight against the underlying trafficking so that these attendant structures efficiently react to the corresponding threats to public health safety as well as contribute towards stopping the trafficking of girls and women during a pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus, pandemic, human trafficking, girls and women, feminism |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:20/039&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Usman M. Usman (University of Malaya, Malaysia); Xuan V. Vo (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | The novel Coronavirus has spread internationally to more than two hundred countries and territories. At the same time, human trafficking in girls and women constitutes a global oppression in virtually all nations either as the source, transit, or destination. The feminist investigators have it that women are in destitute situations, which is a substantial trait of exploitation, especially in the light of the present Covid-19 pandemic. There is practically no research on the relevance of the current deadly respiratory disease to human trafficking from the gender dimension. This study fills the identified gap by providing theoretical and practical perspectives on children, women, and sex trafficking. It is a qualitative inquiry that employs process tracing as a primary research instrument. To better understand the present plague and gender situation, secondary data which are utilized consist of articles, books, reports, and integrated statistics. This research is arguably the first attempt that creates data evidence connecting the pandemic to female sexual exploitation. The paper illustrates that a policy is needed that will strengthen the capacity of existing structures in the fight against the underlying trafficking so that these attendant structures efficiently react to the corresponding threats to public health safety as well as contribute towards stopping the trafficking of girls and women during a pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus, pandemic, human trafficking, girls and women, feminism |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:20/039&r=all |