nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒06‒08
sixteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Review Jurnal Boosting Indonesia's Tourism Sector to be Competitive By Pratiwi, Refinda Ayu
  2. Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach By Diao, Xinshen; Aung, Nilar; Lwin, Wuit Yi; Zone, Phoo Pye; Nyunt, Khin Maung; Thurlow, James
  3. The curse of the Andaman Sea Crisis: Policy implications for Africa on Mixed Migration Flows By Mutsvara, Shepherd; Kugonza, Gorret
  4. Government Ability, Bank-Specific Factors and Profitability - An insight from banking sector of Vietnam By Nguyen, V.C.
  5. A gender-transformative response to COVID-19 in Myanmar By Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Ragasa, Catherine; Wang, Michael; Ei Win, Hnin; Win, Khin Zin
  6. The determinants of islamic mudharabah interbank investment rate: Malaysia as a case study By Aziz, Nur Aziah; Masih, Mansur
  7. Pengaruh inflasi dan investasi terhadap nilai tukar rupiah By , Nesya
  8. Moral incentives in credit card debt repayment: evidence from a field experiment By Bursztyn, Leonardo; Fiorin, Stefano; Gottlieb, Daniel; Kanz, Martin
  9. Government Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Thailand under the Floating Exchange Rate Regime By Jiranyakul, Komain
  10. Accounting for Intergenerational Social Immobility in Low- and Middle-Income Countries By Fabian Koenings; Jakob Schwab
  11. A propensity score matching analysis of the relationship between forest resources and household welfare in Vietnam By Hoang Van, Cuong Van; Tran Quang, Tuyen; Nguyen Thi, Yen; Lan Nguyen, Thanh
  12. Why did some countries catch-up, while others got stuck in the middle? Stages of productive sophistication and smart industrial policies By Hartmann, Dominik; Zagato, Lígia Maria de Jesus Cestari; Gala, Paulo; Pinheiro, Flávio L.
  13. Sharing sequentially triggered losses By Jens Gudmundsson; Jens Leth Hougaard; Chiu Yu Ko
  14. The Value of Health Insurance during a Crisis: Effects of Medicaid Implementation on Pandemic Influenza Mortality By Clay, Karen; Lewis, Joshua; Severnini, Edson R.; Wang, Xiao
  15. Bootstrap Inference for Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments with Matched Pairs By Jiang, Liang; Liu, Xiaobin; Zhang, Yichong
  16. On the paradox of mediocracy By Fu, Qiang; Li, Ming; Qiao, Xue

  1. By: Pratiwi, Refinda Ayu
    Abstract: Indonesia adalah suatu negara yang kaya akan kelestarian alamnya yang indah di setiap kota-kota. Indonesia terkenal dengan sektor pariwisata dan indonesia juga bergantung dalam pendapatannya dari sektor tersebut. Hal menarik dari sektor masa depan pariwisata adalah sebagai andalan untuk mengurangi defisit neraca berjalan, karena pada sektor ini ditargetkan memberikan kontribusi devisa sekitar 17,6 Miliar US$ dengan kedatangan 18 juta wisatawan asing pada tahun 2019.
    Date: 2020–05–04
  2. By: Diao, Xinshen; Aung, Nilar; Lwin, Wuit Yi; Zone, Phoo Pye; Nyunt, Khin Maung; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: The measures taken by the Government of Myanmar to contain the transmission of COVID-19 are a necessary and appropriate response. In-depth analysis of measures of this magnitude on firms, households, government, and the economy as a whole is key to the design of policy interventions that can mitigate the economic losses and support a sustained and robust recovery. The economic losses to Myanmar’s economy in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be huge – a drop in production on the order of between 6.4 and 9.0 trillion Kyat – and likely will push the economy into a recession or lead to stagnant growth, at best, for the year. Although lockdown policies provide exemptions for most agricultural activities, linkages to other sectors indirectly affect the agri-food sector significantly. The agricultural sector is expected to contract by between 1.1 and 2.4 percent in 2020, and recovery will be slow. Closure of factories will have a large negative economic impact due to the strong linkage effects between manufacturing and upstream primary agriculture and downstream marketing services. Reopening the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic recovery in Myanmar.
    Keywords: MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, agriculture, service industry, secondary sector, policies, tourism, mining, economic impact, trade, remittances, agrifood systems gross national product, Covid-19, SAM multipliers, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), lockdown
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Mutsvara, Shepherd; Kugonza, Gorret
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the collective failure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) in protecting the victims of the Andaman Sea crisis in May 2015. It draws parallels between the ASEAN region’s efforts to contain mixed migrant flows and that of the African Union in Libya and Eritrea. Little attention has been given to the policy implications for the African Union (AU) after the aftermath of the Andaman Sea crisis in 2015. As a result, the key question for determination in this paper is two-fold. Firstly, it needs to be determined, through literature review, if Malaysia’s policy of border securitization dithered with the principle of non-refoulment by making the Andaman Sea victims pawns at the hands of smugglers and traffickers. The second line of inquiry draws policy prescriptions for the African Union by evaluating how the European Union has implemented border management projects in an effort to contain migrants transiting to Europe through Libya
    Date: 2020–04–30
  4. By: Nguyen, V.C.
    Abstract: To the best of our knowledge, a very few studies have focused on the effects of government ability on bank performance in developing and emerging countries. The aim of this work is to study the impact of government ability, bank-specific factors on profitability in the banking system in Vietnam. Using a panel data analysis in the period over 2014-2018, the study analyzes based on the methods of fixed, random effects, and pooled ordinary least squares. Data were collected from Vietnam’s Stock Exchange, General Statistics Office, and Worldwide Governance Indicators. Our results demonstrate that government ability has negatively affected bank efficiency while economic growth will not affect bank efficiency. In addition, the prime bank-specific factors that can significantly impact on bank efficiency are non-performing loan, loan-to-deposit ratio, loan loss reserves. A bank with a higher loan-to-deposit ratio can positively impact on the probability of a bank. In contrast to the risk, a bank with a greater risk as well as a higher level in non-performing loan in operation will negatively impact on its efficiency.
    Date: 2020–03–24
  5. By: Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Ragasa, Catherine; Wang, Michael; Ei Win, Hnin; Win, Khin Zin
    Abstract: On 27 April, the Myanmar Government published the COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) which aims to mitigate COVID-19’s impact on the macroeconomic environment and the private sector and to ease the impact on laborers, workers, and households. The CERP action plan should pay explicit attention to gender discrepancies to avoid unintentional harm or aggravating existing gender inequalities.
    Keywords: MYANMAR, BURMA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASIA, gender, Coronavirus, coronavirus disease, Coronavirinae, employment, migration, women, empowerment, decision making, maternal and child health, social protection, health, Covid-19, COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP), informal work, household chores, cash transfer
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Aziz, Nur Aziah; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: This paper is intended to identify the determinants of Islamic Interbank Money Market (IIMM) rate in Malaysia with a specific focus on Mudharabah Interbank Investment (MII) transactions. The nature of Mudharabah outlined is that profit for this contract is based on Profit Sharing Ratio (PSR) pre-agreed between two contracting parties which are capital provider and enterpreneur. Basically, it should be based on real business case. On the other hand, IIMM is operated within the framework of financial transactions and governed by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM). The main issue here is the justification of whether MII rate of return is moving in line with the movement of real economy rather than moving in parallel with any policized or quoted rate.Time series standard methodology will be applied in testing the relationships and causality between the factors affecting the determination of MII rate. Factors include real economy represented by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) while Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) and conventional interbank money market rate representing the policized and quoted rate. Another independant variable that may affect MII rate is the volumes of MII transaction. This study evidences the long-run relationship between the MII rate and various economic units, financial and economic variables. Findings suggest that MII rate are not influenced by the financial variables but mostly influenced by the economic variables which is in contrast with the nature of banking industries. It is strongly viewed that MII rate will move depending on the movement of the conventional money market rate which is also benchmarking against the overnight policy rate (OPR) but it is proven otherwise.
    Keywords: Mudharabah interbank investment, overnight policy rate, VECM, VDC, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 E44 G21
    Date: 2018–07–20
  7. By: , Nesya
    Abstract: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh tingkat inflasi dan investasi terhadap nilai tukar rupiah di Indonesia selama periode 2003-2019. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yaitu data time series tahun 2003-2019 yang diperoleh dari BPS dan Bank Indonesia. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah teknik analisis linear berganda. Berdasarkan hasil analisis ditemukan bahwa inflasi berpengaruh negative dan tidak signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah pada dollar AS. Sedangkan investasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah pada dollar AS. Untuk itu diharapkan pemerintah dapat lebih menjaga harga-harga yang ada dipasar dan mengawasi kegiatan investasi agar tingkat inflasi, investasi, dan nilai tukar tetap stabil.
    Date: 2020–05–18
  8. By: Bursztyn, Leonardo; Fiorin, Stefano; Gottlieb, Daniel; Kanz, Martin
    Abstract: We study the role of morality in debt repayment, using an experiment with the credit card customers of a large Islamic bank in Indonesia. In our main treatment, clients receive a text message stating that \non-repayment of debts by someone who is able to repay is an injustice." This moral appeal decreases delinquency by 4.4 percentage points from a baseline of 66 percent, and reduces default among customers with the highest ex-ante credit risk. Additional treatments help benchmark the effects against direct financial incentives, and rule out competing explanations, such as reminder effects, priming religion, and provision of new information.
    Keywords: credit cards; household finance; religion; moral suasion
    JEL: D14 G20 G21 Z10 Z12
    Date: 2019–08
  9. By: Jiranyakul, Komain
    Abstract: Contributing to the controversial issue on the impact of government spending on economic growth, this paper shows that government spending has both long-run and short-run impacts in stimulating aggregate output in Thailand during the floating exchange rate regime. In addition, real money supply can also stimulate aggregate output in the long run even though it does not have any contribution to economic growth in the short run. Based on quarterly dataset during 1997Q3 to 2017Q4, the results suggest that expansionary fiscal policy is effective under the floating exchange rate regime.
    Keywords: Government expenditures, money supply, cointegration, causality
    JEL: E62
    Date: 2020–05
  10. By: Fabian Koenings (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Jakob Schwab (German Development Institute)
    Abstract: This study investigates the transmission channels of intergenerational social immobility in low- and middle-income countries. Using a rich longitudinal survey dataset on Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam, we analyze through which factors socioeconomic status is passed on between generations. We reduce the information elicited throughout children’s youth to certain latent factors of their development process, such as cognitive and non-cognitive skills as well as the characteristics of their social environment and the social opportunities they face. We then analyze to what extent each of these factors is explained by parental socioeconomic status, and how much each factor in turn determines the outcome of the children. Next, we combine these results in order to decompose the immobility into the different pathway factors. The findings indicate that children’s aspirations and their cognitive skills can each account for around 20 percent of the correlation between parental and children’s education. Starting a family while still a minor, and the need for child labor also play important, but smaller roles, explaining 10 percent and 6 percent of the immobility, respectively. While children’s health, parent’s attentiveness and the local school infrastructure only have small but still significant roles, parents’ spending on education, children’s social environment, and particularly children’s non-cognitive skills have no significant part in the transmission of socioeconomic status in the sample of developing countries, once all other factors are taken into account.
    Keywords: Intergenerational social mobility, transmission mechanisms, low- and middle-income countries
    JEL: I24 J62 O15
    Date: 2020–05–18
  11. By: Hoang Van, Cuong Van; Tran Quang, Tuyen; Nguyen Thi, Yen; Lan Nguyen, Thanh
    Abstract: Using secondary data from a socio-economic quantitative household survey in of the North Central region of Vietnam, the main aim of our study is to analyze the causal effect of forest resources on household income and poverty. Based on the observed characteristics of a forest-based livelihood and forest-related activities, we use a propensity score matching (PSM) method to control for potential bias arising from self-selection. The PSM results indicate that households with a forest livelihood had a higher level of income and lower level of poverty than did those without. Interestingly, our findings confirm that a forest-based livelihood offers much higher income than any other type of livelihood adopted by local households. Also, the poverty rate among households with a forest livelihood is lower than those earning non-labor income or engaged in wage/crop and crop livelihoods. Moreover, households whose livelihoods depend on timber forest products (TFPs) and animals (non-TFPs) also had higher income and lower levels of poverty than did those lacking these resources. Among households and provinces, we find differing opportunities deriving from forest resources, suggesting that there are potential barriers hindering local households from pursuing a forest livelihood or participating in some forest activities. Therefore, government policy and regulations on forest management should focus on improving the access of households to forest resources, at the same time enhancing the sustainability of these resources.
    Keywords: forest resources; household income; livelihood; poverty; rural livelihood.
    JEL: I3 I32 I38 R2
    Date: 2019–08–10
  12. By: Hartmann, Dominik; Zagato, Lígia Maria de Jesus Cestari; Gala, Paulo; Pinheiro, Flávio L.
    Abstract: Development studies on the middle-income trap have highlighted the challenges for developing economies to transform their productive systems from simple towards high valueadded activities. Here, we use trade data of 116 countries to quantify the stages of productive sophistication and reveal the critical phase that countries encounter at intermediate levels of economic sophistication. Our results reveal that only five countries (i.e. Ireland, Israel, Hungary, Singapore, and South Korea) overcame the gravitation towards simple products and fully transformed their economies towards complex products between 1970 and 2010. They successfully made use of windows of opportunities in the digital and electronics sectors through smart industrial policies that promoted endogenous skills and access to international knowledge sources. In contrast, countries like Brazil or South Africa still struggle with the gravitation towards simple economic activities, social fragmentation, and a lack of coherent industrial policies.
    Date: 2020–05
  13. By: Jens Gudmundsson (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Jens Leth Hougaard (NYU-Shanghai, China; Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Chiu Yu Ko (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: We examine a chain of sequential losses: an agent causes a loss to another, which triggers a loss to a third, and so forth. Our objective is to devise a fair distribution of liability, taking into account that the chain turns “victim” to “injurer” in its subsequent step. This opens up for many interpretations of the notion of strict liability: should agents merely be responsible for the direct loss they cause or also bear some of the indirect losses they trigger? Through an axiomatic approach, we characterize the parametric class of fixed-fraction rules. These hold each agent accountable for a fixed fraction of the direct harm she causes while the initiator — the root cause of the loss chain — is liable for the residual. We then explore the case in which individual losses are contested while agreement remains on the total loss and the order of liability. We extend the principle of equalizing losses to equalizing distances to ideal allocations. In particular, we find that liability always can be distributed equidistant to every agent’s ideal allocation. Interestingly, this fair allocation coincides with the intermediate fixed-fraction rule when individual losses are identical.
    Keywords: Sequential losses, Strict liability, Ordered liability, Fair allocation, Cost allocation
    JEL: K12 C7 D6
    Date: 2020–05
  14. By: Clay, Karen (Carnegie Mellon University); Lewis, Joshua (University of Montreal); Severnini, Edson R. (Carnegie Mellon University); Wang, Xiao (Carnegie Mellon University)
    Abstract: This paper studies how better access to public health insurance affects infant mortality during pandemics. Our analysis combines cross-state variation in mandated eligibility for Medicaid with two influenza pandemics — the 1957-58 "Asian Flu" pandemic and the 1968-69 "Hong Kong Flu" — that arrived shortly before and after the program's introduction. Exploiting heterogeneity in the underlying severity of these two shocks across counties, we find no relationship between Medicaid eligibility and pandemic infant mortality during the 1957-58 outbreak. After Medicaid implementation, we find that better access to insurance in high-eligibility states substantially reduced infant mortality during the 1968-69 pandemic. The reductions in pandemic infant mortality are too large to be attributable solely to new Medicaid recipients, suggesting that the expansion in health insurance coverage mitigated disease transmission among the broader population.
    Keywords: public health insurance, medicaid, influenza pandemics
    JEL: I13 I18 N32 N52
    Date: 2020–04
  15. By: Jiang, Liang (Fudan University); Liu, Xiaobin (Zhejiang University); Zhang, Yichong (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper examines inference for quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). We derive the limiting distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs and highlight the difficulty of analytical inference due to parameter tuning. We show that a naive weighted bootstrap fails to approximate the limiting distribution of the QTE estimator under MPDs because it ignores the dependence structure within the matched pairs. We then propose two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate that limiting distribution: the gradient bootstrap and the weighted bootstrap of the inverse propensity score weighted (IPW) estimator. The gradient bootstrap is free of tuning parameters but requires the knowledge of pairs’ identities. The weighted bootstrap of the IPW estimator does not require such knowledge but involves one tuning parameter. Both methods are straightforward to implement and able to provide pointwise confidence intervals and uniform confidence bands that achieve exact limiting rejection probabilities under the null. We illustrate their finite sample performance using both simulations and a well-known dataset on microfinance.
    Keywords: Bootstrap inference; matched pairs; quantile treatment effect; randomized control trials
    JEL: C14 C21
    Date: 2020–05–25
  16. By: Fu, Qiang (National University of Singapore); Li, Ming (Concordia University, CIRANO, and CIREQ); Qiao, Xue (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: We consider a two-agent hierarchical organization with a leader and a manager in a reputation-signaling model. The manager proposes an innovative but risky projectto the leader, and decides whether to exert an effort to improve the value of the project, which benefi ts the organization. The leader decides whether to endorse the project or block it. The leader's competence is her private information, and the market updates its belief about the leader's type based on observation of her action (endorsing the project or blocking it) and its outcome. In equilibrium, the leader could behave excessively conservatively when she is subject to reputation concerns. We have two main fi ndings. First, aside from its usual distortionary effects, the leader's reputation concern has a benefi cial effect by inducing the manager to supply productive effort and improves the organization's performance. Second, there exists a non-monotonic relationship between the perceived competence of the leader and the performance ofthe organization. As a result, a paradox of mediocracy emerges: The organization may benefi t from a seemingly mediocre leader, as a mediocre leader motivates the manager to exert effort, which offsets the efficiency loss due to incorrect decisions.
    Keywords: Leadership, Meritocracy, Organizational Performance, Reputation Concerns, Managerial Effort
    JEL: C72 D23 D72 D82
    Date: 2018–08

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