nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒05‒18
twenty-six papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Antecedents of Social Funds Productivity of Islamic Banks in Indonesia By Andriyani, Lilik; Usman, Nurodin; Pambuko, Zulfikar Bagus
  2. Structural transformation and inclusive growth: Kuznets' 'developer's dilemma' in Indonesia By Kyunghoon Kim; Arriya Mungsunti; Andy Sumner; Arief Yusuf
  3. Do Vertical Spillovers Differ by Investors' Productivity? Theory and Evidence from Vietnam By Ni, Bin; Kato, Hayato
  4. Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Technical Efficiency in Vietnamese Agriculture By Etienne ESPAGNE; Yoro DIALLO
  5. Non-linear Impacts of Climate Change on Income and Inequality in Vietnam By Etienne ESPAGNE; Nicolas DE LAUBIER-LONGUET MARX
  6. Economic and political stakes of the middle income group expansion in Vietnam By Jean-Philippe BERROU
  7. Review Jurnal : Boosting Indonesia’s Tourism Sector to be Competitive By Dewi, Violita
  8. Review Jurnal “Boosting Indonesia’s Tourism Sector to be Competitive” (Steffi Monika - 130218310 - KP B - (34)) By Monika, Steffi
  9. Boosting Indonesia’s Tourism Sector to be Competitive By Pratiwi🧞‍️, Safadela Gigania
  11. Benign growth: Structural transformation and inclusive growth in Thailand By Peter Warr; Waleerat Suphannachart
  12. The energy transition in Asia: Country priorities, fuel types, and energy decisions By Etienne Romsom; Kathryn McPhail
  13. Migration in Southern Shan State: Characteristics and Outcome By Eaindra Theint Theint Thu; Khun Moe Htun; Ben Belton
  14. Comparing public policy implementation in Taiwan and Vietnam in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak: a review By Acosta, Matias; Nestore, Matias
  15. Bossting Indonesia's Tourism Sector to be Competitive By Joanita, Regina
  16. Carbon consumption patterns of emerging middle classes By Never, Babette; Albert, Jose Ramon; Fuhrmann, Hanna; Gsell, Sebastian; Jaramillo, Miguel; Kuhn, Sascha; Senadza, Bernardin
  17. L’essor des classes moyennes dans les pays en développement et émergents : une étude comparative des enjeux d’identification, de caractérisation et de politiques publiques By Jean-Philippe BERROU
  18. Asian American Discrimination in Harvard Admissions By Arcidiacono, Peter; Kinsler, Josh; Ransom, Tyler
  19. The Edible Oil Milling Sector in Myanmar's Dry Zone By Ben Belton; Myat Thida Win
  20. The Value of Health Insurance during a Crisis: Effects of Medicaid Implementation on Pandemic Influenza Mortality By Karen Clay; Joshua A. Lewis; Edson R. Severnini; Xiao Wang
  21. The impact of impact evaluation: Are impact evaluation and impact evaluation synthesis contributing to evidence generation and use in low- and middle-income countries? By Richard Manning; Ian Goldman; Gonzalo Hernández Licona
  22. Émergence économique et développement durable et inclusif du Maroc By Bertrand SAVOYE
  23. Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility in the United Kingdom By Afees A. Salisu; Rangan Gupta
  24. Sectoral Electricity Demand and Direct Rebound Effect in New Zealand By Nepal, Rabindra; al Irsyad, Muhammad Indra; Jamasb, Tooraj
  25. Con?dence Management in Tournaments By Shanglyu Deng; Hanming Fang; Qiang Fu; Zenan Wu
  26. Growth and Transformation in Off- Farm Segments of the Maize Value Chain in Shan State By Ame Cho; Ben Belton

  1. By: Andriyani, Lilik; Usman, Nurodin; Pambuko, Zulfikar Bagus
    Abstract: Purpose: The study aims to analyse the social funds’ productivity of Islamic banks in Indonesia and the antecedents of it. The study will measure the social fund productivity followed by the investigation about the variable which can determine the Islamic bank productivity. Methodology: The study conducted at nine Islamic banks Indonesia. Two stages of the Malmquist productivity index were applied to annual data from 2012-2018. The variables which are tested its effect on social funds’ productivity return on asset, operational efficiency, inflation, OPEC oil price, and economic growth. Main Findings: social funds’ productivity of Islamic banks in Indonesia has experienced progress during the observation period. It is supported by the progress on technological change and efficiency change. The antecedents of social funds’ productivity return on asset and operational efficiency, while macroeconomics conditions have no significant effect on social funds’ productivity. Applications of this study: This study enriches the research on Islamic banks and gives the recommendation for policymakers to supervise better and for banks’ managers to improve the social funds’ productivity. Novelty/Originality of this study: This research is the preliminary study on the determinant of social funds’ productivity in Islamic banks.
    Date: 2020–04–06
  2. By: Kyunghoon Kim; Arriya Mungsunti; Andy Sumner; Arief Yusuf
    Abstract: We focus on special characteristics of the manufacturing sector, in terms of employment generation and productivity growth, that enable the rapid, resilient economic catch-up of developing countries. We consider the 'developer's dilemma' and the relationship between manufacturing value added or employment shares and trends in income inequality. In Indonesia, structural transformation was growth-enhancing and economic growth inclusive during the decades before the 1997?98 Asian financial crisis.
    Keywords: Structural transformation, Inclusive growth, Indonesia, Industrial policy, Social assistance
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Ni, Bin; Kato, Hayato
    Abstract: Developing countries are eager to host foreign direct investment to receive positive technology spillovers to their local firms. However, what types of foreign firms are desirable for the host country to achieve spillovers best? We address this question using firm-level panel data from Vietnam to investigate whether foreign Asian investors in downstream sectors with different productivity affects the productivity of local Vietnamese firms in upstream sectors differently. Using endogenous structural breaks, we divide Asian investors into low-, middle-, and high-productivity groups. The results suggest that the presence of the middle group has the strongest positive spillover effect. The differential spillover effects can be explained by a simple model with vertical linkages and productivity-enhancing investment by local suppliers. The theoretical mechanism is also empirically confirmed.
    Keywords: FDI spillovers; Heterogeneous productivity; Firm-level data; Endogenous structural break; Vertical Cournot model
    JEL: D22 F21
    Date: 2020–03–27
  4. By: Etienne ESPAGNE; Yoro DIALLO
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine farm household-level impacts of weather extreme events on Vietnamese rice technical efficiency. Vietnam is considered among the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and the Vietnamese economy is highly dependent on rice production that is strongly affected by climate change. A stochastic frontier analysis is applied with census panel data and weather data from 2010 to 2014 to estimate these impacts while controlling for both adaptation strategy and household characteristics. Also, this study combines these estimated marginal effects with future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to project the potential impact of hot temperatures in 2050 on rice technical efficiency. We find that weather shocks measured by the occurrence of floods, typhoons and droughts negatively affect technical efficiency. Also, additional days with a temperature above 31°C dampen technical efficiency and the negative effect is increasing with temperature. For instance, a one day increase in the bin [33°C-34°C] ([35°C and more[) lessen technical efficiency between 6.84 (2.82) and 8.05 (3.42) percentage points during the dry (wet) season.
    Keywords: Vietnam
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2019–03–28
    Abstract: This paper measures the marginal impact of climate variability on Vietnamese households’ income. We combine survey data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) database with daily climate data from the Climate Prediction Center to estimate the response function of Vietnamese households’ revenues to past climate variability. We focus on the non-linearity of the response and notably on the impacts of extremely warm days. We find that on average an additional day above 33°C is associated with a decrease of the yearly income by 1.3%. This strong effect is not specific to the agricultural sector. It is highest for the lowest deciles of the revenue distribution. Using projection scenarios under the Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5, we find an estimated impact of global warming of up to 100% of households’ revenues in 2090s in some regions (Northern region and the Red River Delta area) under RCP8.5. These strong negative impacts are also likely to be specifically concentrated on poor households and to increase revenue inequalities.
    Keywords: Vietnam
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2019–03–28
  6. By: Jean-Philippe BERROU
    Abstract: Middle class expansion in formerly poor countries has become the focus point of business groups, development banks and national governments over the latter decade. By naturalizing an income group into a social class with political agency, they misapprehend what exactly are these “people in the middle” and what exactly are their margins of influence on the economy and public policies. By combining microeconomic data on economic and social characteristics of middle income earners taken from the national representative living conditions survey and primary data on subjective perceptions of a representative sample of middle class household heads, we find that the Vietnamese middle-income earners (1) now represent a significant share of the population, (2) are strongly heterogeneous in terms of income, occupation and status, (3) comprises a large share of highly vulnerable households facing high individual risks uncovered by social protection, (4) is not a significant source of political change.
    Keywords: Vietnam
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2019–02–07
  7. By: Dewi, Violita
    Abstract: Indonesia masih sangat bergantung pada sektor pariwisata untuk menutupi defisit anggaran negara, namun pemerintah dan pelaku usaha pariwisata masih kesulitan untuk mendatangkan wisatawan sesuai target. Karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan sektor pariwisata melalui peningkatan daya saing. Penelitian membuktikan bahwa pemerintah telah melakukan banyak hal untuk mengembangkan pariwisata namun masih ada ketidakharmonisan dan ego sektoral antara kementerian dan pemerintah daerah yang menyebabkan turunnya daya saing.
    Date: 2020–04–29
  8. By: Monika, Steffi
    Abstract: Review Jurnal “Boosting Indonesia’s Tourism Sector to be Competitive” (Steffi Monika - 130218310 - KP B - (34))
    Date: 2020–04–29
  9. By: Pratiwi🧞‍️, Safadela Gigania
    Abstract: Boosting Indonesia’s Tourism Sector to be Competitive
    Date: 2020–05–13
  10. By: Simanjuntak, Fredy
    Abstract: Hari-hari belakangan kaum Kristen khususnya aliran pentakosta-kharismatik di Indonesia diramaikan oleh polemic mengenai “pentakosta ke tiga, peristiwa tersebut dideklarasikan bersamaan dalam acara Empowered21 di SICC Bogor beberapa waktu yang lalu. Tokoh utama yang menjadi sorotan adalah Pdt. DR. Ir. Niko Nyotorahardjo Kaum Pentakostal mempopulerkan istilah pentakosta yang ke-3. Fenomena tersebut menimbulkan pro dan kontra di kalangan gereja aliran pentakosta-Kharismatik. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pandangan alkitab, sejarah serta relevansi kegerakan tersebut dengan menggunakan analisis kontrastif sebagai sarana untuk membandingkan bagaimana konteks para Rasul dengan zaman ini. Tulisan ini diharapkan dapat memberikan masukan konstruktif kepada gereja khususnya aliran pentakosta-kharismatik. Penulis menyimpulkan bahwa peristiwa pentakosta perlu dipahami manakah dari unsur-unsur yang dapat terulang, bahkan menjadi norma atau ketetapan bagi gereja masa kini?
    Date: 2019–05–07
  11. By: Peter Warr; Waleerat Suphannachart
    Abstract: Between 1981 and 2017, real gross domestic product in Thailand grew at an average annual rate of 5.7 per cent. Agricultural output grew more slowly than industry or services, and its gross domestic product share consequently declined. Industry's gross domestic product share increased, and the share of services remained relatively constant. Agriculture's employment share declined, but most new jobs were in services. Concurrently, poverty incidence declined dramatically.
    Keywords: Inclusive growth, Inequality, Poverty reduction, Structural transformation, Thailand
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Etienne Romsom; Kathryn McPhail
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the energy transition in Asia. It sets out the underlying drivers and how these set energy transition priorities in China, India, and South East Asia. It particularly describes the role of (liquefied) natural gas in the growing energy demand and changing energy mix. A comparison is then made for each of the three regions on how four main fuel types (coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables) contribute differently to eight energy transition priorities.
    Keywords: renewable resources, Energy, energy utilities, fuel, Gas
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Eaindra Theint Theint Thu; Khun Moe Htun; Ben Belton
    Abstract: Migration is a common phenomenon in southern Shan. Nearly one in three households (31%) have a household member who has ever migrated. At the time of the survey, 14% of households had a migrant and 7% of individuals of working age were migrating. However, southern Shan has developed as a migrant sending area less rapidly than other areas of the country. Migrant flows began to increase rapidly from 2009. Six times more individuals migrated for the first time in 2017 than in 2009 International migrants outnumber domestic migrants, but domestic migration is growing more rapidly. Sixty-five percent of current migrants are currently working internationally, as compared to 35% working domestically. However, in every year from 2013 onwards, the number of first-time migrants to domestic destinations exceeded the number of first-time international migrants, indicating that opportunities for migration within Myanmar have increased in recent years Thailand and Shan State are the most common destinations for migrants from southern Shan. Eighty-eight percent of current international migrants work in Thailand. Surprisingly, the majority of domestic migration takes place within Shan state, where 62% of domestic migrants are based. The vast majority of migration is to urban areas. Domestic migrants work in roughly equal numbers in state/region capitals (38%) and other urban areas (41%), indicating that secondary and tertiary cities are providing significant opportunities for migration. Women and men migrate in roughly equal numbers. Women account for 46% of migrants, men 54%. This ratio varies little between international and domestic migrants Propensity to migrate varies with ethnicity, but is not closely related to landholding status. Individuals of mixed and Shan ethnicity are most likely to migrate (22% and 13% of working age individuals of these ethnicities migrated). Households are equally likely to have a migrant, irrespective of how much land they own. About half of current international migrants borrowed to cover the cost of their migration. Only 11% of domestic migrants borrowed to migrate. The average cost of migration was at MMK 549,327 ($365) and MMK 25,321 ($17) for international and domestic migrants, respectively. Average amounts borrowed to support migration are of a similar order. Migrant earnings are typically sufficient for migration costs to be recouped quite rapidly. International migrants earn more than twice as much as domestic migrants on average. Reported monthly salaries averaged MMK 458,000 ($305) and MMK 175,000 ($115), for international and domestic migrants, respectively Well over half of migrants send remittances. Fifty-eight percent of migrants were reported to have sent remittances in the past 12 months. Most remittances are spent on day-to-day living costs. More than half (52%) of respondents reported that the primary use of remittances was to cover the cost of day-to-day living expenses. Everyday necessities such as medical expenses, debt repayment, education costs and farm operating costs are among the most important uses of remittances after outlay for daily living expenses. This suggests that by migrating from rural areas (‘stepping out’), remittance-sending migrants provide vital v support that enables remaining household members to get by (‘hanging in’), but are less frequently able support household investments on a scale that allows for upgrading or expansion of productive activities (‘stepping up’). The average duration of migration is quite short. Eighty percent of domestic migrants who returned to their place of origin migrated for two years or less. International return migrants spent more time away from home than domestic migrants (an average of four years, versus one year), but almost half migrated for one year or less (19% less than one year and 30% around one year). Reasons for return migration reflect the precarious nature of much migrant work. Poor working conditions, loss or lack of work, poor health, and lack of legal status together account for 43% of decisions to return from migration. Together, these results suggest that the experience of migrating is often difficult and characterized by a high degree of precarity and vulnerability. Most return migrants migrated only once, and have no intention to migrate again. Eighty-one percent of international and 69% of domestic return migrants had migrated on only one occasion, and more than 70% of return migrants did not expect to migrate again, with 14% undecided and 14% expressing the intention to migrate again Implications for policy and programming: Domestic migration is growing more rapidly that international migration. Domestic migration is cheaper, less risky, and is associated with higher levels of skills acquisition than international migration. Moreover, value created by domestic migrants remains in country, creating economic spillovers. A policy environment that stimulates the growth of businesses, combined with skills training for domestic migrants, can also help to ensure that more of the benefits of migration remain in Myanmar. The impact of migration on rural labor markets in Shan appears to have been smaller than expected to date. Most migrants migrate only once, the average duration of migration is quite short, and most migrants return to farming when they come home. This may reflect high levels of access to agricultural land in southern Shan, relative to other areas of the country. …Nevertheless, the rural labor market in southern Shan is likely to tighten if migration continues to intensify. This will result in rising agricultural wages, and the need for further mechanization in agriculture to offset increased costs and ensure timeliness. Financial services designed to meet migrants’ needs could reduce the need to borrow informally, reducing the risk of becoming trapped in exploitative labor arrangements. Expanded provision of public health care, social safety nets, and cheaper schooling can free up more remittance income to be saved or used in productive investment by lessening the impact of shocks and reducing the burden of every day expenses. Although men and women migrate in roughly equal numbers, the burden of unpaid work caring for children left behind falls mainly on non-migrant women.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–07–23
  14. By: Acosta, Matias; Nestore, Matias
    Abstract: Taiwan and Vietnam have taken successful measures to combat the spread of COVID-19 at the early stages. Many authors attributed the successful policies to the lessons learned by these countries during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemic in 2002.(Ohara, 2004) This manuscript provides a summary of recent early-stage policies that were successful in mitigating the spread and creating resilience against the negative consequences of COVID-19 in Taiwan and Vietnam. Crucially, these policies go beyond and complement social isolation. As social isolation is expected to have a negative socio-economic impact on the population and adherence is likely to decrease with time(Armitage and Nellums, 2020; Weems et al., 2020), it is important to consider a broad range of policies to promote a steady control of the COVID-19 spread. Initially, we provide a brief introduction to some general concepts related to COVID-19. Thereafter, we introduce a concise review of policies and their dates relative to the first detection case in Taiwan and Vietnam as well as doing a comparative analysis.
    Date: 2020–04–25
  15. By: Joanita, Regina
    Abstract: Tourism is one of the main sectors expected by the government to be a source cover for the country's deficit. Even though the role play is big, it is still difficult to reach the target of tourists visiting Indonesia, both domestic and foreign tourists. This is because of the lack of promotion, the price of domestic admission tickets and the limited number of airline tickets.
    Date: 2020–04–30
  16. By: Never, Babette; Albert, Jose Ramon; Fuhrmann, Hanna; Gsell, Sebastian; Jaramillo, Miguel; Kuhn, Sascha; Senadza, Bernardin
    Abstract: As households move out of poverty, spending patterns change. This is good news from a development perspective, but changing consumer behaviour may imply substantially more carbon emissions. The lifestyle choices of the emerging middle classes are key, now and in the future. This paper explores the consumption patterns of the emerging middle classes and their carbon intensity, using unique micro data from household surveys conducted in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. We find that carbon-intensive consumption increases with wealth in all three countries, and most sharply from the fourth to the fifth middle-class quintile due to changes in travel behaviour, asset ownership and use. In Peru, this shift in the upper-middle-class quintiles translates to annual incomes of roughly USD 11,000-17,000 purchasing power parity. Environmental knowledge and concern are fairly evenly spread at mid- to high levels and do lead to more easy-entry sustainable behaviours, but they do not decrease the level of carbon emissions. To some extent, a knowledge/concern-action gap exists. In our study, social status matters less than the literature claims. Our results have two implications. First, the differentiations between developing/developed countries in the global climate debate may be outdated: It is about being part of the global middle classes or not. Second, a positive spillover from existing easy-entry sustainable behaviours to a change in carbon-intensive consumption patterns needs policy support.
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Jean-Philippe BERROU
    Abstract: La densification rapide des groupes à revenu intermédiaire dans les économies en développement est certainement un événement majeur du début du 21ème siècle (Kharas, 2010). Ce projet de recherche a pour objectif de proposer un examen approfondi des classes moyennes, de leurs caractéristiques, comportements, aspirations et attentes, ainsi que des implications de leur essor en matière de design des politiques publiques. L’étude porte sur quatre pays, le Brésil, la Côte d’Ivoire, la Turquie et le Vietnam, présentant des niveaux et trajectoires de développement différents. Premièrement, les résultats montrent qu’il est délicat, dans une perspective comparative, d’établir une délimitation monétaire commune des classes moyennes de revenu. Compte tenu des différences de niveau de développement économique entre les pays, les intervalles monétaires pertinents doivent être adaptés à la réalité de la distribution locale des revenus afin de rendre comparable les ménages des classes moyennes. En dépit de différences considérables de revenu, les classes moyennes s’apparentent bien à des classes de consommation, ce qui se traduit par des dépenses de consommation élevés qui se déplacent et se diversifient vers l’éducation, le logement et la santé. La relative satisfaction des besoins immédiats autorise la formulation d’aspirations à la promotion de soi et des siens, qui sont partout associées à une valorisation de l’effort individuel. Ensuite, au-delà de ces éléments de proximité, l’étude comparative souligne la forte hétérogénéité interne de chaque classe moyenne nationale, notamment au regard des différences significatives qui existent entre elles en termes de statut dans l’emploi, de niveau d’éducation ou de revenu. Chaque ensemble national se caractérise par l’existence de quatre à six groupes bien spécifiques pouvant s’expliquer par l’historicité des trajectoires propres à chaque société. Les différentes classes moyennes nationales entretiennent des rapports ambigus et complexes avec l’Etat, le pouvoir et les politiques publiques. D’un côté, la très forte hétérogénéité socio-économique des classes moyennes nationales limite leur capacité d’organisation collective et d’influence politique. D’un autre côté, l’étude constate l’absence de politique officielle et globale de promotion de la classe moyenne en tant que groupe social dont l’influence pourrait être reconnue stratégique dans la trajectoire présente et future de développement économique.
    Keywords: Brésil, Côte d'Ivoire, Turquie, Vietnam
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2019–01–22
  18. By: Arcidiacono, Peter (Duke University); Kinsler, Josh (University of Georgia); Ransom, Tyler (University of Oklahoma)
    Abstract: Detecting racial discrimination using observational data is challenging because of the presence of unobservables that may be correlated with race. Using data made public in the SFFA v. Harvard case, we estimate discrimination in a setting where this concern is mitigated. Namely, we show that there is a substantial penalty against Asian Americans in admissions with limited scope for omitted variables to overturn the result. This is because (i) Asian Americans are substantially stronger than whites on the observables associated with admissions and (ii) the richness of the data yields a model that predicts admissions extremely well. Our preferred model shows that Asian Americans would be admitted at a rate 19% higher absent this penalty. Controlling for one of the primary channels through which Asian American applicants are discriminated against — the personal rating — cuts the Asian American penalty by less than half, still leaving a substantial penalty.
    Keywords: higher education, racial discrimination, college admissions, admissions preference
    JEL: I23 I24 J15
    Date: 2020–04
  19. By: Ben Belton; Myat Thida Win
    Abstract: This report presents findings from a survey of edible oil mills in Myanmar’s Central Dry Zone, comprised of structured interviews with 144 mills in five urban centers, and 38 mills in rural areas of nine townships (total 182 mills). The following results stand out: Groundnut is the most important crop processed by Dry Zone millers, milled by 94% and 87% of urban and rural mills, respectively. Sesame is of lesser importance for urban mills (milled by 31%), but is a major crop for rural mills (milled by 74%). The domestic mill sector utilizes only a small share of Myanmar’s total oilseed production. The majority of sesame produced in Myanmar is exported. The quantity of oilseeds procured by urban mills fell by more than half from 2012 to 2017. The mean volume of groundnut procured fell 55%, from 509 t to 230 t, while the mean volume of sesame procured fell 53%, from 386 t to 182 t. The mill sector is highly concentrated and concentration has intensified since 2012. Large mills procured around 90% of all groundnut and sesame milled by urban mills in 2017. The Gini coefficient of oilseed procurement rose from 0.63 in 2012 to 0.76 in 2017, indicating deepening market concentration. Urban and rural mills have different business models. Urban mills earn income mainly by adding value to purchased oilseeds by processing them, whereas rural mills earn income mainly by providing custom milling services to oilseed farmers for a fee. Most equipment owned by mills is old. The average age of most items of milling equipment owned by urban mills is 14-17 years. Most oil produced in the Dry Zone is consumed locally. Sixty-nine percent of all oil produced by urban mills in the Dry Zone is sold locally. Local consumers account for 57% of sales. Local retailers are the second largest market segment (12% of sales). More than half of urban mills brand the oil that they sell, and one third advertise their products. The number of mills that advertise has grown rapidly since 2011. Oilcake is an important co-product that contributes mill income. Oilcake sales account for around 20% of the gross revenues earned by urban mills. Mills have responded to demand for cheaper oil by selling blended oils. Many mills sell groundnut oil blended with palm oil to consumers more cheaply than pure groundnut oil. Palm oil accounted for 15% of the volume of reported oil sales by Dry Zone mills in 2017. The real retail price of palm oil has halved since 2011, while the price of groundnut oil has remained stable. The long run decline in the price of palm oil corresponds with the removal of restrictions on imports in April 2011 that opened up the market to private importers. Domestically milled oil cannot compete with imported palm oil on the basis of price. Processed palm oil is cheaper than un-milled groundnut, and groundnut oil sells for more than double the price of palm oil. Myanmar’s market for edible oil has become segmented. Retail prices for groundnut oil and palm oil have diverged to such an extent that locally sourced products cater to a relatively small group of better-off consumers who can afford domestically produced oil, and a large group of lower income consumers who cannot Better-off consumers are willing to pay a premium for niche high quality oil. Lack of confidence in the provenance of oil produced by conventional ‘expeller’ mills has created opportunities for a ‘niche’ oil with distinct sensory characteristics produced by small artisanal mills adapted from traditional designs. Oil from these mills attracts a price premium over oil produced by expeller mills Numbers of conventional oil mills fell 30% over the past decade, but the number of artisanal mills doubled. Numbers of urban ‘expeller’ mills dropped from 266 to 186, whereas the number of small artisanal urban mills producing premium oil jumped from 78 to 156, but artisanal mills account for only 2-3% of edible oil production. Implications for policy and programming These results paint a picture of Myanmar’s edible oil milling industry attempting to adjust to the longterm challenge posed by liberalization of palm oil imports, and suggests a number of implications for policy and programming, as follows. Efforts to protect Myanmar’s edible oil milling industry (e.g. by restricting palm oil imports or raising import duties) would hurt poorer consumers. Although liberalization of palm oil imports has proven challenging for domestic millers, it enables consumers to access edible oil at affordable prices. Establishing a national quality assurance scheme for edible oil could give customers more confidence in the quality and provenance of the oil they buy. However, costs of compliance should not represent a barrier to SMEs, and training and support would be needed to help to mills to upgrade practices to meet the standard. Support for improving branding and marketing strategies could help mills differentiate their products and target a larger customer base. For example, by developing more effective online marketing campaigns and integration with emerging e-commerce platforms, or adopting geographical indications or regional brands (e.g. for Pakkoku sone hsi oil). Adoption of national standards combined with better marketing can provide a foundation for entry into export markets with higher quality standards for the best performing mills, enabling more of the value added from the oilseed sector to be retained in Myanmar. Infrastructure such as laboratory testing facilities will be needed if Myanmar is to climb the value ladder. Productivity increases in Dry Zone oilseed farming will increase farm incomes but are unlikely to improve the competitiveness of the milling sector relative to imported palm oil. Any oilseed surplus to domestic requirements is exported, dampening any effect that an increase in oilseed production by farms in Myanmar might have on domestic oil prices.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–07–30
  20. By: Karen Clay; Joshua A. Lewis; Edson R. Severnini; Xiao Wang
    Abstract: This paper studies how better access to public health insurance affects infant mortality during pandemics. Our analysis combines cross-state variation in mandated eligibility for Medicaid with two influenza pandemics — the 1957-58 "Asian Flu" pandemic and the 1968-69 "Hong Kong Flu" — that arrived shortly before and after the program's introduction. Exploiting heterogeneity in the underlying severity of these two shocks across counties, we find no relationship between Medicaid eligibility and pandemic infant mortality during the 1957-58 outbreak. After Medicaid implementation, we find that better access to insurance in high-eligibility states substantially reduced infant mortality during the 1968-69 pandemic. The reductions in pandemic infant mortality are too large to be attributable solely to new Medicaid recipients, suggesting that the expansion in health insurance coverage mitigated disease transmission among the broader population.
    JEL: I13 I18 N32 N52
    Date: 2020–05
  21. By: Richard Manning; Ian Goldman; Gonzalo Hernández Licona
    Abstract: In 2006 the Center for Global Development's report 'When Will We Ever Learn? Improving lives through impact evaluation' bemoaned the lack of rigorous impact evaluations. The authors of the present paper researched international organizations and countries including Mexico, Colombia, South Africa, Uganda, and Philippines to understand how impact evaluations and systematic reviews are being implemented and used, drawing out the emerging lessons.
    Keywords: Evaluation, evidence use, Impact evaluation, research synthesis, systematic reviews
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Bertrand SAVOYE
    Abstract: Les réflexions sur la stratégie de développement économique du Maroc ont fait l’objet de nombreuses études de qualité et ont couvert, sous la forme de plans sectoriels, la plupart des secteurs d’activité de l’économie marocaine. Au coeur de ces travaux, aux diagnostics le plus souvent concordants, se retrouve la question lancinante de l’émergence économique et cette interrogation : pourquoi le Maroc ne réussit-il pas à s’engager durablement dans une trajectoire d’émergence, alors que les conditions paraissent en grande partie réunies ? Ainsi, en dépit d'une relative stabilité politique et sociale, d'une amélioration notable du climat des affaires, d'un effort exceptionnel d’investissement public et parapublic, et d'une insertion réussie dans des chaînes de valeur mondiales à fort contenu technologique, telles que les industries automobile et aéronautique, cette question reste posée dans les derniers rapports produits sur la situation du Maroc, comme elle l’était déjà dans des termes identiques en 2005 dans le rapport Prospective Maroc 2030.À cette interrogation fait écho une préoccupation, également de longue date mais croissante ces derniers temps : comment poursuivre les politiques de réduction de la pauvreté mises en oeuvre et maintenir la cohésion sociale, si la croissance économique et l’emploi escomptés par une trajectoire d’émergence ne sont pas au rendez-vous ?De fait, le Maroc affiche depuis plusieurs décennies ces deux ambitions en accordant tantôt la priorité à l’émergence économique, dans le sillage remarquable des pays du Sud-Est asiatique, et tantôt aux questions sociales et à la lutte contre la pauvreté, élargie ces dernières années aux enjeux du développement durable et inclusif.
    Keywords: Maroc
    JEL: E
    Date: 2019–12–09
  23. By: Afees A. Salisu (Department for Management of Science and Technology Development, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Faculty of Business Administration, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)
    Abstract: We use constant and time-varying parameters vector autoregressive models that allow the estimation of the impact of monetary policy shocks on volatility of macroeconomic variables in the United Kingdom. Estimates suggest that an increase in the policy rate by 1% is associated with a rise in unemployment and inflation volatility of about 10% on average, with peaks observed during episodes of local and global crises.
    Keywords: Non-Linear SVAR, Stochastic Volatility, Monetary Policy Shock
    JEL: C32 E30 E40 E52
    Date: 2020–05
  24. By: Nepal, Rabindra (Faculty of Business, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Centre for Contemporary Australasian Business and Economics Studies (CCABES), University of Wollongong, Australia); al Irsyad, Muhammad Indra (R&D Centre of Electricity, Renewables, and Energy Conservation Technology, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: This paper is one of the limited studies to investigate rebound effects in sectoral electricity consumption and the specific case of New Zealand. New Zealand, like other OECD economies, has aimed for energy efficiency improvements and reduced electricity consumption from 9.2 MWh per capita in 2010 to 8.6 MWh per capita in 2015. However, following a significant decline since 2010, electricity consumption in the main New Zealand sectors is increasing. Energy conservation could play an important role in meeting the growing demand for electricity but rebound effect can affect the effectiveness of conservation policies. We decompose the sectoral electricity prices to capture the asymmetric demand response to electricity price changes and estimate electricity demand elasticity during 1980 and 2015 to estimate the sectoral rebound effects. We find partial rebound effects of 54% and 23% in the industrial and commercial sector respectively while we find no partial rebound effect at aggregate sectoral level. The rebound effect is insignificant in the residential sector. These findings lead to policy recommendations for more sector specific energy conservation measures and policies.
    Keywords: Electricity; Demand; Rebound; Heating; Time series analysis
    JEL: C32 L94 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2020–05–01
  25. By: Shanglyu Deng (University of Maryland); Hanming Fang (University of Pennsylvania); Qiang Fu (National University of Singapore); Zenan Wu (Peking University)
    Abstract: An incumbent employee competes against a new hire for bonus or promotion. The incumbent’s ability is commonly known, while that of the new hire is private infor-mation. The incumbent is subject to a perceptional bias: His prior about the new hire’s type di?ers from the true underlying distribution. He can be either ex ante overcon?dent or undercon?dent. We ?rst explore whether a ?rm that aims to maxi-mize aggregate e?ort would bene?t or su?er from the bias. It is shown that debiasing may not be productive in incentivizing e?orts. We then study the optimal information disclosure policy. The ?rm is allowed to ex ante commit to whether an informative signal—which allows the incumbent to infer the new hire’s type—will be disclosed publicly. We fully characterize the conditions under which transparency or opacity will prevail. We further take a Bayesian persuasion approach to optimally design the ?rm’s evaluation and feedback structure. We also consider an alternative context in which the manager is concerned about the expected winner’s e?ort. We demonstrate that the insights obtained from the baseline setting remain intact. Our results shed light on the extensive discussion of con?dence management in ?rms and the debate about organizational transparency.
    Date: 2020–05–10
  26. By: Ame Cho; Ben Belton
    Abstract: This report details results from the first representative sample-based study of maize traders and agricultural input suppliers conducted in Myanmar. We interviewed 109 input suppliers and 218 traders in twelve of the major maize growing and trading townships of southern Shan State, and the cities of Lashio and Muse in northern Shan. The following results stand out: The supply of agricultural inputs in South Shan is increasing extremely rapidly. The average quantity of maize seed sold by individual trading and input supply businesses grew by around 50% since 2013. Fertilizer sales have also increased sharply. The number of agricultural input suppliers selling pesticides and herbicides has grown quickly since the mid-2000s. In contrast to input suppliers, however, comparatively few traders sell pesticides or herbicides. The maize seed market is diversifying as it grows. CP dominates supply, but its market share is shrinking. Input providers are not restricted to selling inputs supplied by any single company and the number of brands and varieties of seed stocked is increasing. The market for fertilizer is relatively mature, with suppliers stocking more brands and types of fertilizer than maize seed. Less than 40% of maize seed and fertilizer is supplied in the form of in-kind credit. Sixty-one percent of maize seed and 63% of fertilizer was paid for in cash. Cash sales accounted for around half the volume of maize seed and fertilizer sold by traders and three-quarters of the maize and fertilizer sold by input suppliers. Interest rates paid by farmers on in-kind credit have fallen sharply since 2013, from 4.5% per month in 2013 to 3.0% per month in 2018. The interest paid on a seed pack purchased using an average duration in-kind loan would amount less than one-quarter of its value. Less than half of maize seed suppliers report charging any form of interest on maize seed provided as credit in-kind. Traders and input suppliers receive most of their information about agriculture via word of mouth and private sector marketing activities. Facebook and government extension agents are also important sources of information for traders and input suppliers, respectively. NGOs and traditional media provide very little business information to these enterprises. The number of enterprises in the maize value chain has grown quickly since 2013. The estimated number of maize traders operating in surveyed townships grew 71%, from 231 to 395, and numbers of agricultural input suppliers grew 69%, from 113 to 191. Numbers of businesses providing logistics (transport), maize drying services, agricultural machinery and animal feed supply also increased. Ownership of business assets has increased dramatically since 2013. In 2018, the vast majority of traders (≥85%) owned mobile phones, motorbikes, bagging machines and manual scales. Around half of traders owned generators, electronic scales, or 4 to 6-wheel trucks. The volume of maize procured by traders in our sample nearly doubled in the past five years. The total volume of maize purchased annually jumped from 486,364 t to 943,530 t (94%). The degree of concentration among traders (measured as the Gini coefficient of total maize procured) decreased from 0.72 in 2013, to 0.62 in 2018, apparently driven by growing sales from medium sized traders. Traders procure most maize directly from farmers. Farmer sales contributed 78% of the maize procured, indicating relatively low levels of intermediation and low dependence on small village level collectors. Three-quarters of maize traders are wholesalers (obtaining profit from arbitrage). The average markup earned by wholesalers after deducting operating costs is 4.3% of the purchase price. Traders are taking increasing measures to improve the quality of maize traded. Between 2013 and 2018 the share of traders drying maize in the open air or drying maize using a machine increased from 69% to 73% and from 5% to 11%, respectively. The share of traders using digital moisture meters or maize cleaning machines increased from 28% to 47% and 9% to 19%, respectively. Most traders utilize formal financial institutions. Over two-thirds of traders received payment from buyers by bank transfer. Banks are an increasingly important source of credit for traders. One-third of traders reported having borrowed working capital in the past year. Of these, almost half took bank loans. Yoma Bank, which offers a loan scheme designed specifically for traders, is the most popular of these, providing loans to 30% of traders who borrowed from any source. The average value of loans taken by traders within the past 12 months was MMK 110 million ($73,600). The average size of vehicles used to transport maize has increased over the past five years. The share of deliveries made using 22 to 24-wheel trucks grew from 9% to 36% of all deliveries over the period 2013 to 2018. These have taken the place of deliveries by 10 to 18-wheel trucks. There is very little loss of maize between time of procurement and time of sale. Losses of maize during trading amounted to just 0.18% of the total volume procured. CP factories procure twice as much maize as all other feed factories combined. Sales of maize to CP account for 13% of total sales by traders, while other factories only account for 7%. The share of maize sold to feed factories is higher in South Shan (29%) than North Shan (3%).CP factories have higher quality standards than other buyers. Closure of the China border to maize exports impacted 82% of traders. Nearly all-overland trade in maize from North Shan to China is informal, and is subject to periodic closure due to anti-smuggling campaigns. The most recent of these was particularly severe, beginning a few weeks prior to the survey in October 2019, and continuing for several months afterward. Implications for policy and programming. In sum, these findings indicate that upstream and midstream segments of the maize value chain in Shan State are growing and transforming rapidly. They are becoming more competitive and more inclusive, and show early signs of modernization, formalization and the emergence of forms of conduct intended to produce higher quality goods. As such, there are relatively few areas where intervention is necessary or desirable, but the following stand out: Formal imports of maize from Myanmar into China are subject to high tariffs, leading to informal cross border trade to evade them. Periodic crack-downs on informal trade are a major cause of price volatility and unpredictability for traders and farmers in Myanmar. Securing a bilateral agreement on export quotas could help to address this issue, and government efforts to do so should be prioritized. Investment in technologies that facilitate long term storage of maize grain by traders or farmer groups could also help to smooth out troughs in demand. Rapid increases in pesticide and herbicide use have potentially negative implications for environmental and human health. Strengthening existing regulation and regulatory enforcement of the sale and use of these products, and supporting and expanding ongoing efforts by government and development partners to provide safety training and information for farmers should be a priority. The marketing activities of agricultural input companies are important conduits for delivering information to traders and agricultural input supply businesses, who pass information to their customers. Forging closer partnerships between government, development partners and input suppliers can provide opportunities to disseminate extension messages and materials to large numbers of end users. The terms of informal credit provision by traders and input suppliers are not exploitative, but the cost of borrowing informally remains several times higher than subsidized borrowing from Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB). Relatively few Shan farmers are able to access loans from MADB. Innovative approaches to delivering formal agricultural credit to farmers at scale are therefore required. The success Yoma Bank’s efforts to provide working capital loans to traders, and high levels of trader enrolment in the formal banking sector, indicate that there is considerable potential to expand delivery of formal financial services to enterprises in agricultural supply chains. DOWNLOAD FILE
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2019–12–09

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