nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒04‒27
twenty-six papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Further Estimations of the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version 2 dt. April 10, 2020) By Morris, Sebastian
  2. The effect of emotiomal intelligence on turnover intention and the moderating role of perceived organizational support: Evidence from the banking industry of Vietnam By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
  3. Public Policy and Program Administration in the Philippines: A Critical Discourse By Alipio, Mark
  4. Do socio-economic indicators associate with COVID-2019 cases? Findings from a Philippine study By Alipio, Mark
  5. The Impact of Perceived Brand Globalness on Consumers Purchase Intention and the Moderating Role of Consumer Ethnocentrism An Evidence from Vietnam By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
  6. Middle test rizkia ananda sari (1910128120001) By sari, rizkia ananda
  7. Minimum Wages and Firm-Level Employment in a Developing Country By Sjöholm, Fredrik
  8. Akuntabilitas Pelayanan Publik By , Fatmawati
  9. Persistent Privilege? Institutional Education Gaps during Vietnam's Economic Boom By Diep Phan; Ian Coxhead
  10. The influence of website quality on consumers e-loyalty through the mediating role of e-trust esatisfaction and perceived enjoyment An evidence from online shopping in Vietnam By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
  11. Impacts of enterprise zones on local households in Vietnam By Vu, Tien; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  12. Can Boosting Savings and Skills Support Female Business Owners in Indonesia? Evidence from A Randomized Controlled Trial By Mayra Buvinic; Hillary C. Johnson; Elizaveta Perova; Firman Witoelar
  13. The children are alright: Revisiting the impact of parental migration in the Philippines By Pajaron, Marjorie; Latinazo, Cara T.; Trinidad, Enrico G.
  14. Determinants of tuberculosis incidence in East Asia and Pacific: A panel regression analysis By Alipio, Mark
  15. Pioneering a New Approach to Improving Working Conditions in Developing Countries: Better Factories Cambodia By Robertson, Raymond
  17. A Model of Organizational Culture for Enhancing Organizational Commitment in Telecom Industry: Evidence from Vietnam By Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
  18. Revenue Administration in the Philippines: Significant Collection Reforms, TRAIN Law, Fiscal Incentives, Excise Tax, and Rice Tariffication Law By Alipio, Mark
  19. Menghindari Corona Bagian 4 Ujian On line By Razak, Muhammad Rais Rahmat
  20. Mobile phone network and migration: evidence from Myanmar By Riccardo Ciacci; Jorge García-Hombrados; Ayesha Zainudeen
  22. Structural barriers to health-provider training programmes for ethnic minorities: the case of the Katu and diabetes management in Vietnam By Bec, Caroline; Wells, Geoff
  23. Payment Dollarization and Foreign Exchange Market Development in Cambodia: The Role of Money Changers By Koji Kubo; Vichet Sam; Yuthan Chea
  24. Impacts of long-lasting civil conflicts on education: Evidence from the 2014 Census of Myanmar By Yamada, Hiroyuki; Matsushima, Midori
  25. Urbanization Policy and Economic Development: A Quantitative Analysis of China’s Differential Hukou Reforms By Hsu, Wen-Tai; Ma, Lin
  26. Weighing up the Credit-to-GDP gap: A cautionary note By Oezer Karagedikli; Ole Rummel

  1. By: Morris, Sebastian
    Abstract: We had earlier estimated the likely cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic for a number of countries. This was an early attempt and gave somewhat tentative results. With some 7 more days of data being now available, better estimates are possible which we bring out in this paper. As in the previous paper we use a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths, to estimate the zero growth level of cases and deaths. We also provide an upper bound to these estimates. The earlier estimates are further reinforced, and new estimates are made for a select set of countries where the growth rates in the numbers of cases, and in deaths have begun to decline. We also give estimates of the current growth rates in cases and deaths that these countries are likely to witness. The study as before presumes that the spread of infection is one-stage logistic process, once significant numbers of infections have taken place. This may not be true of countries which witnessed low deaths and cases. In countries that have witnessed much spread and deaths relative to their populations and with more sustainable approaches to containment may not witness significantly more deaths than what has happened thus far. This would be the case of Iran, Italy. China and Korea too with their rather highly coordinated approach despite low spread of cases and low number of deaths relative to their population would along with Iran, Italy and Denmark and Turkey would most likely not see a secondary wave of infections. Argentina and South Africa show very high growth rate in deaths even the increase in cases have slowed down considerable. Spain has stabilized its growth in deaths to nearly zero levels bit since the cases are continuing to grow at around 5.7% the death rates could again turn positive after a while. Germany and Indonesia show continuing rise in deaths and cases at moderately high rates. Japan, Malaysia, Brazil and Singapore show low to moderate death rates, but since the rise in cases continues to be between 5 and 8%, these low(Japan) moderate growth rate in deaths are likely to continue for a while before they fall to zero. France, Sweden Australia and Thailand would see continuing growth in cases at moderate rates even though the growth in deaths continue to be at high rates. The US most notably shows very high growth rates in both deaths and in cases indicating that the deaths at high rates are likely to continue for a while. While estimates are made for Canada, India, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, UK and the Philippines, they are of limited value since it is too early for the logistic model to fit. However, all of these except Russia show high death rates and high case rates. These countries could all see continuing rise in cases before the decline in rates happen, so that their current decline in death rates even when statistically significant could change for the worse. We have as in the previous paper used a logistic model to estimate the current growth rates, and made forecasts of the ultimate stable cases and deaths before these stop rising any further. For 26 countries (with a combined population of 3.8 billion) the total cases as on date 9th /10th April was where the logistic trend has been realized for cases, was 1.36 million. We expect the cases to rise to a maximum in the countries covered to 2.9 million. The death trends in only 22 of the 29 countries considered had stabilized to a logistic model. In these 22 countries (with a combined population of 3.7billion) the deaths as on date were 87,472. These would surely rise to between 121,000 to 355,000 before stabilizing. In the estimates above India most notably has not been included, since its trends have not yet stablised to a logistic unfoldment. At present it is engaged in a titanic struggle through near complete lock downs to restrict the cases and deaths to low levels. Whether this would work to quell the spread to very levels, or whether the problem explodes later is still an open question.
    Date: 2020–04–13
  2. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of emotional intelligence on turnover intention, noting the mediating roles of work-family conflict and job burnout as well as the moderating effect of perceived organizational support. Survey data collected from 722 employees at banks in Vietnam was analyzed to provide evidence. Results from the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) using the SmartPLS 3.0 program indicated that there was a negative effect of emotional intelligence on employees’ turnover intention; this was mediated partially through work-family conflict and job burnout. Besides, this study indicated that perceived organizational support could decrease work-family conflict, job burnout and turnover intention of employees. It could also moderate the relationship between emotional intelligence and work-family conflict. This negative relationship was stronger for employees who work in a supportive environment. The main findings of this research provided some empirical implications for the Vietnamese banking industry. It implied that organizations in the service industry should try to improve their employees’ work-family balance, reduce job burnout and take advantage of these emotional balances and supportive environments to create beneficial outcomes.
    Date: 2020–02–11
  3. By: Alipio, Mark
    Abstract: This study was conducted to explore and describe the current public policy and program administration in the Philippines. The approaches, roles, scope, practice, contributions, and discipline of public administration was first discussed, followed by the history, heritage, and hubris of the Philippine public administration. Issues such as identity crises were revisited, as well as in specific problems in Government Owned and Controlled Corporations. Finally, the nature and state of local government of the Philippines were elucidated.
    Date: 2020–04–09
  4. By: Alipio, Mark
    Abstract: Background: A wide spectrum of indicators has been postulated to associate with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-2019) cases. Among which were demographic profile, latitude, humidity, temperature, and ozone concentration. Despite obtaining significant results, there is still a dearth of research exploring other substantial determinants of Covid-2019 cases. The Philippine government is currently challenged to address issues pertaining to poverty and substinence. Empirical evidence of these studies suggests how identification of potential indicators could aid in the formulation of targeted strategies to mitigate future health problems. In this study, seven socio-economic indicators were associated with Covid-2019 cases across 17 regions in the Philippines. This is a retrospective study utilizing readily accessible public data in the analysis. Socio-economic indicators used were poverty incidence, magnitude of poor families, substinence incidence, and magnitude of substinence poor population. In addition, the income, expenditure, and savings recorded per Philippine region were taken for the analysis. A single Philippine region was the sampling unit; hence, a total of 17 regions were assessed. Covid-2019 cases as of April 7, 2020 were considered for the analysis. Descriptive statistics, Kendall rank correlation, and stepwise regression were used to determine if the seven socio-economic indicators were associated with Covid-2019 cases. Substinence incidence and income were retained for the regression model, which explained 87.2 percent of the variance in the Covid-2019 cases (R2 = .872). The results indicated that for every 1,000 PhP increase in income, there was a decrease of 3.99 Covid-2019 cases in each Philippine region. Meanwhile, for every 1.0 percent increase in substinence incidence, there was an increase of 3.34 Covid-2019 cases in each Philippine region. High income and low substinence incidence are associated with significant reductions in Covid-2019 cases across the 17 regions of the Philippines. This provides additional knowledge to policy makers and health officials in formulating targeted strategies to regions that could potentially record high number of Covid-2019 cases in the future. Early identification of these high-risk regions would warrant prompt preventive measures. Given the seasonal and recurring nature of Covid-2019 with respect to previous outbreaks, it is essential for the Philippine government to formulate directed policies and innovate programs that would decrease substinence and increase income. Concerted multi-region efforts should be made to prepare for possible infection outbreaks in the future. Additional studies could be explored in the future to capture significant changes in the socio-economic indicators.
    Date: 2020–04–08
  5. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
    Abstract: The aim of this research is to examine the effect of perceived brand globalness on consumers’ purchase intention, noting the mediating roles of perceived brand prestige and quality, brand social responsibility, and the moderating roles of consumer ethnocentrism. Survey data collected from 613 consumers in Vietnam was analyzed to provide evidence. Results from the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) using the SmartPLS 3.0 program indicated that there was a positive impact of perceived brand globalness on consumers’ purchase intention; this was mediated partially through perceived brand prestige and quality, and brand social responsibility. Moreover, this study also found the moderating effects of consumer ethnocentrism on the impacts of perceived brand globalness on consumer’s purchase intention and on perceived brand quality. Consumer ethnocentrism dampened the positive association between perceived brand globalness and perceived brand quality as well as reduced purchase intention of Vietnamese consumers. The finding also implies that marketers should build a suitable marketing strategy to heighten consumers’ purchase intention.
    Date: 2019–12–11
  6. By: sari, rizkia ananda
    Abstract: Dalam lembar kerja ini untuk memenuhi soal UTS dan menjawabkan tentang soal yang berisikan analisis buku yang berjudul sejarah pendidikan indonesia (Era pra Kolonialisme Nusantara sampai Reformasi ) kemudian penulis menjawab tentang apa saja fakta sejarah yang ada pada dalam buku tersebut kemudian mengaitkan tentang fakta sejarah budaya asing yang menyembabkan pendidikan semakin berkembang di nusantara sehingga menyembabkan Adanya dampak sosial yang terjadi di nusantara karena masuk nya budaya asing. Tujuannya untuk mengetahui lebih dalam lagi apa saja fakta sejarahnya yang bisa analisis sehingga dapat dijadikan referensi dalam pembelajaran IPS di SMP. Kemudian menjelaskan tentang pengaruh masuknya bangsa eropa ke nusantara terhadap perkembangan pendidikan di nusantara kemudian menghubungan konsep dasar IPS apa saja yang dapat digunakan untuk melihat peristiwa sejarah ini tujuannya untuk memudahkan dalam pembaca yang ingin mengetahui dan mendalami tentang sejarah pendidikan indonesia karena lembar jawaban ini disusun dengan ringkas padat dan jelas.
    Date: 2020–04–15
  7. By: Sjöholm, Fredrik (Department of Economics, Lund University, and)
    Abstract: The effect of minimum wages on employment is a matter of debate, and the existing empirical literature contains mixed results. One reason for this is the methodological difficulties involved where changes in minimum wages are endogenous to other important economic changes. To overcome this problem, we examine exogenous changes to local minimum wages in Indonesia between 1989 and 1994. Our natural experiment results from a national policy change: from minimum wages being determined by local guidelines and criteria to minimum wages being harmonized and set according to nationwide criteria. We examine how these changes in minimum wages affect employment, considering the effect both on employment within plants and on exit of plants. Our results show no evidence of an effect of minimum wages on employment in Indonesian plants. One explanation found in the data is that higher minimum wages force plants to increase productivity, which in turn enables them to retain their labor force, despite higher wage costs.
    Keywords: Minimum wages; Employment; Plants; Indonesia
    JEL: J21 J23 J38
    Date: 2020–04–08
  8. By: , Fatmawati
    Abstract: Akuntabilitas publik adalah sebagai suatu upaya untuk memberikan pertanggung jawaban yang dilakukan oleh unit organisasi atau pihak-pihak yang berekpentingan secara terbuka kepada pihak-pihak yang memberikan pertanggungjawaban tersebut. pelayanan publik adalah segala bentuk jasa pelayanan baik dalam bentuk barang publik maupun jasa publik yang pada prinsipinya menjadi tanggung jawab dan dilaksanakan oleh Instansi pemerintah di pusat, daerah, dan dilingkungan BUMN atau BUMD dalam rangka pelaksanaan ketentuan peraturan perundang-undangan. Hambatan dalam pelaksanaan akuntabilitas pelayanan publik yaitu pemerintah yang belum teliti dalam mencari penyebabnya apakah dalam rumusan bentuk pertanggungjawaban atau mekanisme pertanggungjawaban serta komitmen pelaksananya. Artinya, pemerintah harus terus mencari suatu formula yang baik, sehingga akuntabilitas publik ini dapat berjalan efektif, dan ketidakpuasan masyarakat yang muncul dalam bentuk aksi-aksi demonstrasi dapat diredam atau setidaknya diminimalkan. Problematika dalam akuntabilitas publik di Indonesia adalah Rendahnya kualitas pelayanan publik merupakan salah satu sorotan yang diarahkan kepada birokrasi pemerintah dalam memberikan pelayanan kepada masyarakat. Perbaikan pelayanan publik di era-reformasi merupakan seluruh masyarakat, namun dalam perjalanannya, ternyata tidak mengalami perubahan yang signifikan. Upaya dalam meningkatkan pelaksanaan dan mengembangkan akuntabilitas pelayan publik adalah political will yang kuat dari para pelaksananya termasuk dalam hal ini pemerintah pusat dan daerah agar bersedia mempertanggungjawabkan semua tindakannya kepada publik, pemerintah harus memegang teguh prinsip yang merujuk ada atau tidaknya prosedur prinsip. Untuk menyempurnakan sistem ini di masa yang akan datang, pemerintah harus mengembangkan suatu sistem standar akuntansi dan ini harus disebarluaskan kepada masyarakat dan mewujudkan akuntabilitas penyelenggaraan pemerintahan, birokrasi pemerintah dituntut untuk dapat memenuhi harapan-harapan ideal masyarakat.
    Date: 2020–04–15
  9. By: Diep Phan (University of Wisconsin, Madison); Ian Coxhead (University of Wisconsin–Madison)
    Abstract: A persistent public-private sector difference in returns to skills is one sign that Vietnam’s transition from command to market economy remains incomplete. Matching this is large gap in post-compulsory education enrollments favoring children from families with members employed by government or state enterprises. We compare that gap between 2004 and 2014, a decade during which Vietnam experienced a boom in private-sector and foreign-invested economic activity. Despite the boom, we find a persistent and widening enrollment gap between “state” and “nonstate” households which are similar in other observable respects. This institutional gap is not the only basis for enrollment differences—the ethnicity gap has also widened, even as rural-urban disparities have diminished—but they may contribute to slow and unequal progress in overall educational attainment. Unless addressed, enrollment gaps are likely to worsen intergenerational inequality and may reduce long-run economic growth.
    Keywords: schooling, developing countries, Inequality, state-owned enterprises, Vietnam
    JEL: I24 I25 J24 O15 P23
    Date: 2020–04
  10. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
    Abstract: The aim of the present study is to examine the influence of website quality on consumer’s eloyalty, noting the mediating role of e-trust, e-satisfaction, and perceived enjoyment. Besides, this study examines the consequence of consumer’s e-loyalty. Survey data collected from 594 respondents aged at least 16 years and performed some online shopping through websites in Vietnam. Based on the theoretical framework, PLS-SEM using SmartPLS 3.0 software was deployed to discover links between the constructs. The results showed a positive effect of website quality on e-loyalty, which was mediated partially through consumer e-trust and e-satisfaction. Moreover, e-loyalty had a positive association with electronic word of mouth (eWOM) as well. The main findings of this research provide some empirical implications for Internet marketers and online retailers in Vietnam. E-vendors should understand the customers’ expectations and e-loyalty regarding online shopping to attract new customers as well as to retain their existing customers.
    Date: 2019–11–18
  11. By: Vu, Tien; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: Based on the “winner-loser” scheme, we examine the possible impacts of enterprise zones (EZs) on local Vietnamese households between 2002 and 2008, using differences-in-differences and a panel-event study. We layer four waves of household surveys using a census of EZs in 2007, based on the same commune identity for our household and individual analyses. Within five years of EZ establishment, we find they are associated with higher household incomes, an increase in private property prices, and an increase in working hours. However, we do not find a significant impact on household living expenditure or school attendance/working probabilities among members aged between 7 and 17 years. Neither do we find a significant impact on health outcomes.
    Keywords: Enterprise zone; Health; Household; Income; School Attendance; Vietnam
    JEL: D1 O12 O18 P36
    Date: 2020–04–06
  12. By: Mayra Buvinic (Center for Global Development); Hillary C. Johnson (World Bank); Elizaveta Perova (World Bank); Firman Witoelar (Australian National University)
    Abstract: There is broad evidence of gender gaps in the productivity of microenterprises, which are in part linked to financial and human capital constraints. Existing literature suggests that interventions simultaneously addressing skills and capital constraints can be effective, but there is little evidence to date exploring the combination of skills and savings interventions. This study tests the relative effectiveness and cost effectiveness of providing supply-side incentives to promote agent banking savings accounts, business and financial literacy training for female entrepreneurs, and the combination of the two on women’s businesses and agency in Indonesia. The study took place in 401 villages in East Java in which agent banking products were recently introduced. Although the trial found only small positive effects on the take-up of branchless banking services, both interventions had significant positive impacts on women’s profits. The impacts of the training and mentoring intervention seem to come in part from improved business practices, greater savings, increased business assets, and increased decision-making power. Because the high incentives treatment impacted women’s profits but not any intermediate outcomes the mechanisms are less clear—potentially coming either from a more woman-friendly business environment or through using their husbands’ savings or their existing savings to support their businesses. Although the high agent incentives are more cost-effective than the training and mentoring, policy makers may still prefer the demand-side intervention, as it has more positive implications for women’s overall empowerment and stronger impacts for the poorest quintile of female entrepreneurs.
    JEL: D14 M2 O16
    Date: 2020–04–10
  13. By: Pajaron, Marjorie; Latinazo, Cara T.; Trinidad, Enrico G.
    Abstract: The Philippine government has focused most of its migration policy initiatives to encouraging international labour migration and protecting the rights of Filipino migrant workers. However, government interventions and aids to left-behind families and children left much to be desired. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the impact of parental migration on the welfare of left-behind children in the Philippines so that policies can be devised to support them. This study’s analytical methods (instrumental variable analysis and propensity score matching) enable it to address several issues in migration research including endogeneity, migrant selectivity and community (regional) context, using previously unexamined nationally representative data from the Philippines. Our results suggest an overall positive impact on education, work, and temper of left-behind children. However, they tend to be more physically sickly. This warrants government attention to preclude any long-term negative health effects.
    Keywords: Parental Migration,Children’s Welfare,Instrumental Variable,PSM
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Alipio, Mark
    Abstract: Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the world’s deadliest communicable disease. To circumvent surges of TB cases, several studies have been carried out analyzing the determinants of TB incidence and recommended policy measures based on the significant indicators. Although the determinants were suggested for strategic planning of TB, the implementation of new measures was either unsuccessful or difficult to realize because of logistical, administrative, and financial constraints. This study aims to unravel potential determinants of TB incidence across 23 countries in East Asia and Pacific. The disentangling of possible association between variables was carried out using panel regression analysis. This is an ecological multinational-based study utilizing readily accessible public data in the analysis. Carbon dioxide emission, PM2.5 air pollution exposure, unemployment (percent of total labor force), percent of people using at least basic sanitation services, percent of people practicing open defecation, health expenditure (percent of GDP), and out-of-pocket health expenditure are included as the determinants of TB incidence. The single outcome variable of this study was TB incidence which is the estimated number of new and relapse tuberculosis cases arising in a given year, expressed as the rate per 100,000 population. A total of 23 countries in the East and Pacific region were included as sampling unit with a time-series length of five years (2010 – 2014), producing 115 samples. Given the nature of data, a panel regression was used to estimate the relationship between the potential determinants and TB incidence. A significant regression coefficient was found (F(7,107) = 37.9, p
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide emission,air pollution,unemployment,sanitation,open defecation,health expenditure,out-of-pocket health expenditure,tuberculosis incidence,East Asia and Pacific,public health,economics
    JEL: A12 C4 C6 H51 I14 I15 I18 I38
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University)
    Abstract: The rise of global supply chains over the last three decades intensified international attention to the conditions endured by workers in poor countries. Collapsed buildings, fires and death created an imperative to address poor conditions. Consumers, non-governmental organizations, inter-governmental organizations, international buyers and governments began seeking ways to improve working conditions in exporting factories in developing countries. The goals of this chapter is to describe the birth and growth of the Better Factories Cambodia (BFC) program, review the academic literature that has focused on both the BFC program and its descendent, Better Work, and identify some of the key aspects of the program that have been shown to be particularly successful.
    Keywords: working conditions, global value chains, Cambodia, Better Factories Cambodia
    JEL: F16 F66 F23 J8
    Date: 2020–03
  16. By: Safira, Ananda Putri
    Abstract: Praktek penyelenggaraan pelayanan publik di Indonesia saat ini masih penuh dengan ketidakpastian biaya, waktu dan cara pelayanan. Mengurus pelayanan publik ibaratnya memasuki hutan belantara yang penuh dengan ketidakpastian. Waktu dan biaya pelayanan tidak pernah jelas bagi para pengguna pelayanan. Hal ini terjadi karena prosedur pelayanan tidak pernah mengatur kewajiban dari penyelenggara pelayanan dan hak dari warga sebagai pengguna. Prosedur cenderung hanya mengatur kewajiban warga ketika berhadapan dengan unit pelayanan. Ketidakpastian yang sangat tinggi ini mendorong warga untuk membayar pungli kepada petugas agar kepastian pelayanan bisa segera diperoleh. Ketidakpastian bisa juga mendorong warga memilih menggunakan biro jasa untuk menye lesaikan pelayanannya daripada menyelesaikannya sendiri.
    Date: 2020–04–14
  17. By: Giao, Ha Nam Khanh
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of organizational culture on organizational commitment in the context of the Vietnam telecom industry. The model was tested with a sample of 324 employees working for telecom companies. The result from the partial least squares method (PLS) using SmartPLS 3.0 program revealed a good fit between collected data and measurement scales which were introduced and developed in the Western contexts. Besides, the findings showed that the six dimensions of organizational culture had positive impacts on organizational commitment decreasingly: innovativeness, teamwork, training and development, reward and recognition, organizational communication, empowerment. This discovery highlighted the importance of organizational culture in enhancing employee commitment towards the organization as well as calls the management attention to these dimensions and long-term development policies.
    Date: 2020–04–09
  18. By: Alipio, Mark
    Abstract: This paper argues the present revenue administration of President Duterte in the Philippines. Significant collection reforms, TRAIN law, fiscal incentives, excise tax, and rice tariffication law were especially discussed in this paper to provide a lens of the current revenue restructuring and an improvement plan for the country’s economy
    Date: 2020–04–08
  19. By: Razak, Muhammad Rais Rahmat
    Abstract: Covig-19 memposisikan diri sebagai wabah dunia, karena penyebarannya cepat dan menimbulkan korban ribuan meninggal. Virus yang menurut media awalnya ditemukan berasal dari Wuhan China, kemudian menyebar cepat dan sekarang beberapa negara maju sudah menerapkan kebijakan LOCKDOWN seperti Italia, Spanyol, Amerika, Chine, dll. Covig-19 membawa perubahan cepat kepada prilaku manusia, pemerintah Indonesia menganjurkan social distancing daripada lock down, namun keyataannya beberapa daerah seperti Tegal menerapkan lockdown kemudian diralat menjadi lockdown wilayah. Dalam dunia pendidikan, kebijakan social distance kemudian diterapkan disekolah dan perguruan tinggi untuk mengganti proses belajar dari sebelumnya tatap muka menjadi daring. Hal ini menciptakan masalah baru, bagaimana dengan pelaksanaan ujiannya. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk mencari metode dan aplikasi kemudian membuat pedomannya . Dengan penggunaan aplikasi socrative yang tersedia di internet dapat membantu mahasiswa dan dosen dalam melaksanakan ujian. Hasil penelusuran dan diskusi dengan mahasiswa dan dibuat dalam bentuk pedoman, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa, aplikasi socrative dapat digunakan sebagai salah satu metode pelaksanaan ujian yang murah dan mudah dijalankan.
    Date: 2020–04–03
  20. By: Riccardo Ciacci; Jorge García-Hombrados; Ayesha Zainudeen
    Abstract: This study explores the effect of the expansion of mobile phone signal on migrationdecisions in Myanmar. The empirical strategy proposed follows Manacorda and Tesei (2019) and Andersen et al. (2011), it uses variation in lightning frequency across spaceas an instrumental variable for the expansion of mobile phone signal. Our results suggest that longer exposure to mobile phone network decreases migration. Specifically, an increase of 1 s.d. in the time exposed to mobile phone signal diminishes the probability of household members to migrate by 17%. We find empirical evidencesuggesting that such findings are driven by the positive effects of access to mobilephone signal on labor market outcomes and on perceived well-being.
    Keywords: Burma/Myanmar, migration
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2020
  21. By: naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI)
    Abstract: Covid-19 or the corona virus is a virus that has become a disaster and a global humanitarian disaster began in December 2019 in Wuhan province in China, April 2020 the spread of the corona virus has spread throughout the world making the greatest humanitarian disaster in the history of human civilization after the war world II, Already tens of thousands of people have died, millions of people have been infected with the conona virus from poor countries, developing countries to developed countries overwhelmed by this virus outbreak. Increasingly, the spread follows a series of measurements while patients who recover recover from a series of counts so that this epidemic becomes a very frightening disaster plus there is no drug or vaccine for this corona virus yet found, so that all countries implement strategies to reduce this spread from social distancing, phycal distancing to with a city or country lockdown.
    Date: 2020–04–15
  22. By: Bec, Caroline; Wells, Geoff
    Abstract: Objective: Training of primary care practitioners is one of the most implemented interventions in medical international development programmes targeting non-communicable diseases (NCD). Yet in many cases their effectiveness is below expectations. One potential cause of this is that they struggle to account for local context, especially when working with ethnic minorities. Here we begin to address this gap through a qualitative case-study of how local contextual factors have impacted the success of a World Health Organization (WHO) healthcare training programme on Type 2 diabetes with an ethnic minority group in rural central Vietnam. Design: A qualitative case-study collected data during 2018. 25 semi-structured interviews, two focus groups, and participant observation with patients, healthcare professionals, and members of a local non-governmental organisation involved in the programme were conducted. Thematic coding to identify important contextual factors and how they helped or hindered programme delivery was used. Next, we synthesised each of these themes in a narrative style, drawing on the rich detail provided by respondents. Results: We found that, despite using a notionally decentralised approach, the effectiveness of the training was hindered by social, political, and economic determinants of health which influenced the inhabitants’ relations to healthcare and diabetes. Particular barriers were the political perceptions of minorities, their economic access to services, the healthcare prejudices toward ethnic rural populations and the rigidity of medical training. Conclusions: Given the similarity of our case with other WHO NCD programmes, we view that our findings are of wider relevance to global public health policy and practice. We suggest that better recognising and addressing local contextual factors would make such programmes more polyvocal, grounded, and resilient, as well as enabling them to better support long-term transformative change in public health systems. We conclude by discussing methods for implementing this in practice.
    Date: 2020–02–02
  23. By: Koji Kubo; Vichet Sam; Yuthan Chea
    Abstract: Cambodia's foreign exchange market is cash-based, overshadowed by the retail transactions of money changers. Based on the original dataset of the enterprise survey on uses of currency exchange services, we elucidate the structure of the foreign exchange market and investigate how payment dollarization is related to the prosperity of money changers. The empirical evidence indicates that firms in the domestic business sector confront currency mismatch situations that mean they have to undertake currency exchange. Besides, cash transactions are the most common means of payment in the country. The combination of prevalent currency mismatch and cash-based transactions is considered to give rise to retail currency exchange transactions with which money changers are more compatible than banks are. The empirical results also suggest that the recent regulation to promote bank lending in Khmer Riels will boost banks' currency exchange services, a situation conducive to foreign exchange market development.
    Keywords: Cash-based transaction, Money changer, Currency mismatch, Payment dollarization, Cambodia
    Date: 2019–10
  24. By: Yamada, Hiroyuki; Matsushima, Midori
    Abstract: Geocoded conflict information was combined with the 2014 household census data to study the impact of long-lasting internal conflicts at township level on Myanmar's primary and secondary-level school attendance (i.e., the short-term impact) and years of education (i.e., the long-term impact). The impacts of internal conflicts on school attendance in 2014 were consistently negative. Then, we constructed quasi-panel data for primary-level schooling to find, again, consistently negative impacts of internal conflicts. The results are robust, even if incompleteness of census or migration are taken into account. The estimated magnitudes of the impacts are smaller than those of the findings from other countries: a 10% increase in the number of deaths result in a 0.01% decline in enrollment probability. Finally, we confirmed that exposure to conflicts during age 6-10 years has a negative but insignificant impact on years of education. Gender differences in terms of negative impact are almost negligible. By carefully reviewing previous papers and characteristics of Myanmar’s conflicts up to 2014 with respect to the mechanism of the negative effect of conflict on education, we argue that the small negative impact found in our analysis is due to the long-lasting and low-intensity nature of the conflicts, as well as the fact that schools and social services are provided by military forces. However, it is important to note that our analysis does not include data of the recent violence in Rakhine state.
    Keywords: Civil conflict; Education; Population census; Myanmar
    JEL: I21 I25 O15
    Date: 2020–04–10
  25. By: Hsu, Wen-Tai (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Ma, Lin (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: The household registration system (hukou system) in China has hampered rural-urban mi-gration by posing large migration friction. The system has been gradually relaxed in the past few decades, but the reforms have been differential in city size and by the coastal-inland di-vide. We find a striking contrast in the migration patterns between years 2005 and 2015; rural people tended to move more to the coastal urban region in 2005, but more to the inland urban region in 2015. We calibrate a spatial quantitative model to the world economy in both years with China being divided into the rural, coastal urban, and inland urban regions. We find that alternative urbanization policies that are not differential and that are more laissez-faire would substantially improve national welfare, in magnitudes that are comparable to the welfare gains from the trade liberalization that China has put in place in the past.
    Keywords: Hukou system; household registration system; differential reform; urbanization policy; economic development; spatial quantitative analysis
    Date: 2020–03–01
  26. By: Oezer Karagedikli (South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN)); Ole Rummel (South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN))
    Abstract: It has been argued that credit-to-GDP gaps (credit gap) are useful early warning indicators for banking crises. In addition, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has also advocated using these gaps - estimated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with a smoothing parameter of 400,000 - to inform policy on the appropriate counter-cyclical capital buffer. We use the weighted average representation of the same filter and show that it attaches high weights to observations from the past, including the distant past: up to 40 lags (10 years) of past data are used in the calculation of the one-sided trend/permanent component of the credit-to-GDP ratio. We show how past data that belongs to the ‘old-regime’ prior to the crises continue to influence the estimates of the trend for years to come. By using narrative evidence from a number of countries that experienced deep financial crises, we show that this leads to some undesirable influence on the trend estimates that is at odds with the post-crisis environment.
    JEL: J31 J64
    Date: 2020

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