nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒04‒13
eighteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. ASEAN, SAARC, and the indomitable China in food trade: A gravity model analysis of trade patterns By Ajmani, Manmeet; Choudhary, Vishruta; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh
  2. Do Vertical Spillovers Differ by Investors' Productivity? Theory and Evidence from Vietnam By Ni, Bin; Kato, Hayato
  4. The financialization of real estate in megacities and its variegated trajectories in East Asia By Natacha Aveline-Dubach
  5. Effect of Working Capital Turnover on Operating Profit on PT. Holcim Indonesia, Tbk By naryono, endang
  7. Determinants of inter-regional financial inclusion heterogeneities in the Philippines By Burguillos, Je-Al; Cassimon, Danny
  8. ANALISIS PENGARUH CAR, KUALITAS ASET PRODUKTIF, KUALITAS MANAJEMEN, BOPO DAN LIKUIDITAS TERHADAP PROFITABILITAS (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di BEI Tahun 2012 – 2016) By Hanafiah, Irsyad; Tanjung, Mariani St.B; Sari, Desfriana
  9. カンボジアの銀行資本構成の決定要因 : 高度ドル化経済の実証研究 By 奥田, 英信; 潘, 鵬欽; 胡, 詩翌
  10. Equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments in large emerging markets: A Re-look through panel cointegrating estimation By Krittika Banerjee; Ashima Goyal
  11. Disparities in Regional Productivity, Capital Accumulation, and Efficiency across Indonesia: A Convergence Clubs Approach By Mendez-Guerra, Carlos; Kataoka, Mitsuhiko
  12. Choosing Your Ethnicity: A Longitudinal Analysis of Ethnic Identity Choice and Intra-Individual Ethnicity Change By Rademakers, Robbert; van Hoorn, Andre
  13. THE ANTECEDENT OF CUSTOMER SATISFACTION By Barusman, Andala Rama Putra; Rulian, Evelin Putri; Susanto, Susanto
  17. Japan's Outward FDI Potential By Theresa Greaney; Kozo Kiyota
  18. The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis By Choi, Eleanor J.; Choi, Jaewoo; Son, Hyelim

  1. By: Ajmani, Manmeet; Choudhary, Vishruta; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh
    Abstract: We assess food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, we find subpar trade for several countries but some over-trading as well, likely driven by weak economic fundamentals determining trade. Further, we find that Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam under-export to China, and to nearly all ASEAN and SAARC countries, with the magnitude varying between 40 and 100 percent below the predicted trade levels. While checking for competing explanations, we identify trading pair time variant factors such as tariffs reducing the magnitude of under-exporting of ASEAN and SAARC countries by 1 and 3 percent, respectively. We also highlight unobserved variables such as trust between countries as factors important for strong agricultural trade.
    Keywords: CHINA; EAST ASIA; ASIA; ASEAN; models; trade; international trade; gravity model; multilateral resistance; zero trade; under-trading; over-trading; SAARC
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Ni, Bin; Kato, Hayato
    Abstract: Developing countries are eager to host foreign direct investment to receive positive technology spillovers to their local firms. However, what types of foreign firms are desirable for the host country to achieve spillovers best? We address this question using firm-level panel data from Vietnam to investigate whether foreign Asian investors in downstream sectors with different productivity affects the productivity of local Vietnamese firms in upstream sectors differently. Using endogenous structural breaks, we divide Asian investors into low-, middle-, and high-productivity groups. The results suggest that the presence of the middle group has the strongest positive spillover effect. The differential spillover effects can be explained by a simple model with vertical linkages and productivity-enhancing investment by local suppliers. The theoretical mechanism is also empirically confirmed.
    Keywords: FDI spillovers; Heterogeneous productivity; Firm-level data; Endogenous structural break; Vertical Cournot model
    JEL: D22 F21
    Date: 2020–03–27
  3. By: Elvira, Hilda; Dona, Elva; Tanjung, Mariani St.B
    Abstract: Seiring dengan perkembangan globalisasi, kebutuhan dalam bertransaksi juga semakin meningkat. Sebagai penyelenggara kliring, Bank Indonesia Provinsi Sumatera Barat berperan penting dalam kelancaran transaksi pembayaran. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui bagaimana mekanisme pelaksanaan kliring pada Kantor Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Sumatera Barat, apakah telah sesuai dengan prosedur yang telah ditetapkan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam Tugas Akhir ini adalah metode deskriptif kualitatif, dengan menggunakan informasi dan data yang ada pada perpustakaan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Dalam mekanisme pelaksanaan kliring, Kantor Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Sumatera Barat selaku Penyelenggara Kliring Lokal (PKL) melaksanakan prosedur kliring debet, sementara kliring kredit dilakukan oleh Penyelenggara Kliring Nasional (Bank Indonesia Pusat).
    Date: 2019–08–21
  4. By: Natacha Aveline-Dubach (GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This chapter sheds light on the forces that drive global financial investment into the real estate markets of megacity regions across the world. Although financial approaches and metrics of valuation stem from the Anglo-American investment culture, their rooting in different institutional contexts produces varied trajectories of financialization. Hybridization dynamics are seen especially in East Asia, where local cultures and institutional arrangements were not initially fit to integrate Western investment concepts. This chapter highlights the diverging patterns of real estate financialization in three East Asian countries /regions: Japan, Hong Kong, and Mainland China. It is based on a framework that combines three key elements: i) the representations of 'investable' markets by the global financial industry; ii) the initiatives taken by state agencies to provide a supportive environment for financial investment; and iii) the response by property developers to the supply of market capital in the built environment.
    Abstract: Ce chapitre révèle les dynamiques de l'investissement financier global vers les marchés immobiliers des mégapoles à travers le monde. Bien que les approches financières et les mesures d'évaluation proviennent de la culture d'investissement anglo-américaine, leur enracinement dans des contextes institutionnels différents produit des trajectoires de financiarisation variées. Les dynamiques d'hybridation sont particulièrement visibles en Asie orientale, où les cultures locales et les arrangements institutionnels n'étaient pas initialement adaptés pour intégrer les concepts d'investissement occidentaux. Ce chapitre met en évidence les modèles divergents de financiarisation de l'immobilier dans trois pays/régions d'Asie de l'Est : Le Japon, Hong Kong et la Chine continentale. Il est basé sur un cadre qui combine trois éléments clés : a) les représentations des marchés "investissables" par l'industrie financière mondiale ; b) les initiatives des pouvoirs publics pour fournir un environnement favorable à l'investissement financier ; c) la réponse des promoteurs à l'offre de capital financier pour les opérations immobilières.
    Keywords: Real estate,financialization,East Asia,REITs,property,urban policy,China PRC,Hong Kong Chine,Japanese Studies
    Date: 2020
  5. By: naryono, endang (STIE PASIM SUKABUMI)
    Abstract: This research is about the Effect of Working Capital Turnover on Operating Profit at PT. Holcim Indonesia, Tbk for a period of 6 years, so the samples were taken in the form of financial statement data from 2014 - 2019 using financial report data on the Company's Working Capital Turnover and Operating Profit. In this study the researchers used the theory of Sarwono (2005: 95), this research aims to determine the significant and positive influence between Working Capital Turnover and Operating Profit at PT. Holcim Indonesia Tbk. The method used in this research is ex post facto by taking secondary data from PT. Holcim Indonesia Tbk period 2014 - 2019 and the analysis of the influence using regression analysis, correlation, coefficient of determination and hypothesis testing using t test. The results of this study show a correlation value (r) of 0.543 or 29.48%, this means that the influence of Working Capital Turnover on operating income is quite strong and the nature of the relationship is positive, meaning that if the value of Working Capital Turnover increases, resulting in operating profit will increase. The regression equation for Working Capital Turnover towards Operating Profit is if the working capital turnover is 0 X (times), - the magnitude of the Company's operating profit. 55.969%, which means that if the working capital turnover is 0 X (times / no turnover), - the operating profit at the company is 55.969%%, and the regression coefficient x is 15.185% indicating that each increase in Working Capital 1X (times), it will increase the Company's operating profit by 55.969%, - (due to a positive sign).
    Date: 2020–02–22
  6. By: Faizin, Mu'adil (IAIN Metro)
    Abstract: Buku ini berisi materi studi Hukum Perikatan Islam Di Indonesia. Terdiri dari 15 bab, diawali dengan telaah teori iltizam, perbedaan sudut pandang Perikatan dalam Hukum Islam dan konvensional, sumber perikatan, konsep akad sampai dengan anatomi perancangan akad yang biasa dilakukan dalam praktik Lembaga Keuangan Syariah. Buku bertujuan memberikan panduan dari teori hingga praktik Hukum Perikatan Islam di Indonesia, baik klasik maupun kontemporer.
    Date: 2020–01–19
  7. By: Burguillos, Je-Al; Cassimon, Danny
    Abstract: This study explores the key factors that affected the deepening of financial inclusion across the 17 regions of the Philippines from 2013-2017. Using the regional multidimensional financial inclusion index (FII) developed by the BSP, the study finds out that significant heterogeneities exist among regions, and that they persist over time, suggesting most importantly that the least financially inclusive regions do not show significant progress. Moreover, using different panel estimation techniques, we try to determine the possible factors that affect this inter-regional financial inclusion heterogeneities. Overall, we show that regional GDP per capita, population, a proxy for the availability of physical infrastructure, and the degree of mobile penetration are among the robust factors explaining the financial inclusion variations across regions.
    Keywords: financial inclusion, financial development, inter-regional disparities, the Philippines
    JEL: I30 G18 O53 R11
    Date: 2020–04
  8. By: Hanafiah, Irsyad; Tanjung, Mariani St.B; Sari, Desfriana
    Abstract: The soundness of a bank can be seen with several indicators. Some of the indicators are the main indicators on which the valuation is based. Financial statement analysis can help users of financial statements in assessing the financial condition of the bank. In assessing the bank's financial condition, some ratios are Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Non Performing Loan (NPL), Net Interest Margin (NIM), Operating Income Operating Cost (BOPO) and Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) as independent variable. The purpose of this study to see and test how the influence of these ratios on bank profitability as a dependent variable. The research was conducted at a banking company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The samples of this research are 20 banks listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2012 - 2016. Test data in this research using E-Views 6 statistical application, the result of this research shows that CAR has negative and significant effect on profitability, NPL has negative and insignificant on profitability, NIM positively and significantly affect profitability, BOPO has a negative and significant effect on profitability and LDR have negative and insignificant effect on profitability.
    Date: 2020–02–17
  9. By: 奥田, 英信; 潘, 鵬欽; 胡, 詩翌
    Abstract: 金融自由化が進んだ1990年代以降の先進諸国では、銀行業の資本構成も他の一般企業と同様に内生的に決定されるので、Modigliani and Miller定理をベースとする代表的な企業金融理論が当て嵌まるとする見解が有力となった。近年では途上国についても、Romdhane (2012)、Ukaegbu and Oino (2013)、Allen and et al. (2013)らが、チュニジア、ケニア、東南アジアの商業銀行の資本構成に、一般の企業金融理論が妥当することを検証している。本稿は、ドル化が進んだカンボジアで、商業銀行の資本構成の決定要因を初めて検討した実証研究である。本稿では、2011年から2017年まで8年間の主要商業銀行12行のパネルデータを利用し、資本比率の回帰分析を行った。暫定的な推計結果によれば、(1)カンボジア商業銀行の資本構成には概ね企業金融理論の仮説が当てはまること、(2)ただし積極的な経営拡大を目指す銀行は経営リスクを低く評価する傾向があること、が観察された。ドル化経済では、中央銀行の最後の貸手機能が制約されるため、商業銀行は自己責任において高いシステミックリスクに備えなければならない。本稿の分析結果は、カンボジアの銀行はリスクにより配慮した経営をする必要があることを示唆している。, In developed countries where financial liberalization has progressed, the view that the capital structure of the banking business is determined endogenously like other non-financial companies, and that the standard corporate finance theory well explain banks’ capital structure. For developing countries, Romdhane (2012), Ukaegbu and Oino (2013), and Allen and et al. (2013) verified that corporate finance theory is valid to determine the capital structure of commercial banks in Tunisia, Kenya, and Southeast Asia. This paper is the first empirical study to examine what factors determine the capital structure of commercial banks in Cambodia, where financial activities are highly dollarized. In this paper, we conducted a regression analysis of capital ratios by using panel data on 12 major commercial banks during the 2011-2017 period. According to the tentative estimates, (1) the capital structure of Cambodian commercial banks can be generally explained by the standardized corporate finance theory, and (2) banks aiming for aggressive business expansion tend to value credit and liquidity risk low. In a dollarized economy, commercial banks must be prepared for high systemic risks at their own risk, since the last lender function of the central bank is limited. Our analysis suggests that Cambodian banks need to be fully more risk-conscious in their business activities.
    Keywords: 資本構成, 銀行, ドル化, カンボジア, capital structure, banks, dollarization, Cambodia
    Date: 2020–03
  10. By: Krittika Banerjee (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)
    Abstract: Equilibrium real exchange rates (ERERs) of a set of major emerging market economies (EMEs) are estimated in a panel cointegrating equation framework against trade weighted advanced economy (AE) currencies taking into account structural emerging market issues, and then used to derive misalignments of the RER. Since US as a dominant economy has considerable effect on EME monetary policy, we use weighted AE variables in order to avoid endogeneity when US data alone is used. We find robust support for the Balassa-Samuelson effect, whereby productivity appreciates RER. This is also seen to be a dominant factor, along with financial development. We find that dependency ratio appreciates ERER indicating excess demand possibly from increase in young dependent population, as well as future growth potential for these EMEs. Rise in fiscal expenditure and financial development, on average, have a depreciatory effect indicating improvements in long run supply conditions. Institutions are found to improve competitiveness in all EMEs in our sample, except Thailand. On average, Asian economies have more appreciated ERER indicating better fundamentals. Over 1995-2017 we find that EME RER followed a cyclical pattern closely linked to global events, with periods of appreciation followed by depreciation. Asian economies along with Brazil and Mexico can be grouped together in terms of RER movement. Russia and Turkey have edged on the side of under-valuation and followed a more random path. The absence of substantial prolonged under-valuation before the Global Financial Crisis implies it was not a sole cause of imbalances. Over-valuation indicates EMEs bore large post-crisis adjustment costs.
    Keywords: Real exchange rate, fundamentals, emerging markets, misalignments, global imbalances, adjustment costs
    JEL: C21 C22 C23 F31 F41 O5
    Date: 2020–01
  11. By: Mendez-Guerra, Carlos; Kataoka, Mitsuhiko
    Abstract: This paper studies the evolution of regional disparities in labor productivity, capital accumulation, and efficiency across Indonesian provinces over the 1990-2010 period. Through the lens of a non-linear dynamic factor model, we first test the hypothesis that all provinces would eventually converge to a common steady-state path. We reject this hypothesis and find that the provincial dynamics of labor productivity are characterized by two convergence clubs. We next evaluate the dynamics of the proximate determinants of labor productivity and find some mixed results. On the one hand, physical and human capital accumulation are characterized by four and two convergence clubs, respectively. On the other hand, efficiency is characterized by a unique convergence club. The paper concludes suggesting that based on the provincial composition of each club and the common low level of efficiency across Indonesia, considerable improvements in both capital accumulation and efficiency are still needed to reduce regional disparities and accelerate productivity growth.
    Keywords: Regional productivity, Capital Accumulation, Efficiency, Convergence clubs, Indonesia
    JEL: R10 R11 R58
    Date: 2020–03–28
  12. By: Rademakers, Robbert; van Hoorn, Andre
    Abstract: This paper studies individuals’ possible choice to forgo their ancestral ethnicity and adopt a specific new ethnicity. We first use individual-level panel data for Indonesia as well as other countries (e.g., the U.S.) to document the pervasiveness of intra-individual ethnicity change and its coincidence with major life events, particularly, interethnic marriage. Next, we focus on individuals who have intermarried and exploit variation in deep-rooted community-level norms on matrilocality (co-residence with the wife’s family) to identify how differences in expected costs and benefits of ethnicity change causally affect newlyweds’ choice to adopt a specific ethnicity (i.e., their spouses’ ethnicity) or not. Results obtained using a three-wave panel comprising more than 13,000 Indonesians confirm the expected effect of matrilocality, as newly intermarried men (women) are significantly more (less) likely to adopt their spouses’ ethnicity when the couple lives in a matrilocal community compared to a non-matrilocal one. Because ethnicity change is a means to fit in, important implication of our findings is that in many countries key statistics on ethnic fractionalization and segregation are severely inflated.
    Keywords: Intra-individual ethnic fluidity; ethnic boundaries; ethnic options; intermarriage; post-marital residence norms; racial identity change
    JEL: J12 J15 Z13
    Date: 2020–03–20
  13. By: Barusman, Andala Rama Putra; Rulian, Evelin Putri; Susanto, Susanto (Universitas Bandar Lampung)
    Abstract: Taking a case study of tourism as hospitality industry in Lampung Province in Indonesia, we analyze the antecedent of customer satisfaction and its impact on customer retention. Using Structural Equation Model (SEM), we find that customer relationship management has a significant impact on service quality, customer satisfaction and customer retention.
    Date: 2020–03–12
  14. By: Nurti, Vina Asri; Dona, Elva; Tanjung, Mariani St.B
    Abstract: The purpose of this study was to find out how the determinants of Nagari Banks as a distributor of people’s business loans in Painan. The research method used is the metohed of data descriptive. The kind of used data is secondary data obtained from the publication of the bank indonesia and the bank nagari painan period 2015 – 2018. The results of this study indicate that the recapitulation of people’s business lending to nagari bank is running well. The level of the NPL of the bank is in a very good condition, meaning that the bank is able to repay the problem loans. The CAR level also shows that the bank is able to finance its operations from the sources of funds it has. While the credit period is determined based on the type of people’s business credit chosen by the debtor
    Date: 2019–07–07
  15. By: Firnando, Yori; Dona, Elva; Tanjung, Mariani St.B
    Abstract: Banks are business entities that collect funds from the public in the form of deposits and channel to the public in the form of credit or other forms in order to improve the standard of living of the people. Banks are defined as financial institutions whose main activities are raising funds from the public and other bank services. Banks are defined as financial institutions whose main activities are raising funds from the public and other bank services. The Bank functions as a financial intermediary that is raising funds, channeling public funds from surplus units to deposit units or transferring money from debtors to creditors. According to the Law of the Republic of Indonesia No. 7 of 1992 about banking has been changed to Law No. 10 years 1998 what is meant by a Bank is a business entity that collects funds from the public in the form of deposits and distribution to community in the form of credit or other forms in order improve the standard of living of the people. According to (Kasmir, 2001: 11) in (Zamien, 2013) Banks are defined as financial institutions whose main activities are to collect funds from the public and other bank services.
    Date: 2019–07–25
  16. By: Irwan, Ria; Dona, Elva; Tanjung, Mariani St.B
    Abstract: The purpose of this research was coundoced to find out how credit management in an effort to increase liquidity on bank bank nagari padang. The research method used is the metohed of data qualitative descriptive.The kind of used data is secondary data obtained from the publication of the bank indonesia and the bank nagari padang period 2013 – 2017. The results of research shows that comparison level LDR banks are in the position of healthy, a comparison level NPL was still in a position to less healthy, and a comparison LAR also shows the bank has not been able to meet the demand of the credits. While the comparison of QR banks shows in a healthy position so that the bank is able to cover its obligations by using tools liquid owned by the bank.
    Date: 2019–07–29
  17. By: Theresa Greaney (Department of Economics, University of Hawai'i); Kozo Kiyota (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)
    Abstract: While Japan's outward FDI stock is historically high, it is not necessarily clear whether there is untapped growth potential, given the economic size of Japan and that of partner countries. This paper examines whether Japan's actual outward FDI stock is high or low relative to the FDI predicted by the gravity model using the outward FDI patterns of all OECD nations, which we call counterfactual FDI. The results indicate that the ratio of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI is the highest among the OECD countries as of the year 2015. The regional distribution of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI favors Southeast Asian nations, South Africa and the US. These results imply that Japan has no unrealized potential for outward FDI.
    Keywords: Outward foreign direct investment, Gravity model, Japan
    JEL: F14 F21 F23
    Date: 2020–03–08
  18. By: Choi, Eleanor J. (Hanyang University); Choi, Jaewoo (Korea Development Institute (KDI)); Son, Hyelim (University of Seoul)
    Abstract: This study investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during a recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing. Our results suggest that labor market entry in a large-scale recession has prolonged effects on a young worker's life course even after the penalties in the labor market have disappeared.
    Keywords: recession, financial crisis, long-term effects, college graduates
    JEL: E32 J10 E21 J20 J31
    Date: 2020–02

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