nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2020‒04‒06
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Vietnam's Extraordinary Performance in the PISA Assessment: A Cultural Explanation of an Education Paradox By Asadullah, Niaz; Perera, Liyanage Devangi; Xiao, Saizi
  2. Productivity, Efficiency and Firm Size Distribution: Evidence from Vietnam By Hien Thu Pham; Nhan Buu Phan; Shino Takayama
  3. Regional Income Disparities and Convergence Clubs in Indonesia: New District-Level Evidence 2000-2017 By Aginta, Harry; Gunawan, Anang Budi; Mendez, Carlos
  4. Pendidikan Kewirausahaan Berbasis Ketahanan Nasional By Sadewo, Yosua Damas
  6. Policy response, social media and science journalism for the sustainability of the public health system amid COVID-19 outbreak: The Vietnam lessons By Viet-Phuong La; Thanh-Hang Pham; Manh Toan Ho; Minh Hoang Nguyen; Nguyen Phuc Khanh Linh; Thu-Trang Vuong; Hong Kong To Nguyen; Manh-Tung Ho; Quan-Hoang Vuong
  7. Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Is Economics the Fairest of Them All ? By Quan-Hoang Vuong; Nguyen Phuc Khanh Linh; Viet Phuong La; Thu-Trang Vuong; Manh-Tung Ho; Minh Hoang Nguyen; Thanh-Hang Pham; Manh Toan Ho
  9. STEM education and outcomes in Vietnam: Views from the social gap and gender issues By Quan-Hoang Vuong; Thanh-Hang Pham; Trung Tran; Thu-Trang Vuong; Nguyen Manh Cuong; Nguyen Phuc Khanh Linh; Viet-Phuong La; Manh Toan Ho
  10. KEWIRAUSAHAAN TAHU ISI LELE (TISeL) By Denni, Denni; Buntukaraeng, Buntukaraeng; Wijaya, Hengki
  11. Determinants of Global Value Chain Participation : Cross-Country Evidence By Fernandes,Ana Margarida; Kee,Hiau Looi; Winkler,Deborah Elisabeth
  13. The Influence Of Climate Leadership, Organizational Behavior And Discipline Work Against The Performance Of Members Of The Police Of The Republic Of Indonesia Sabhara Units Of The Resort City Of Padang By Jaya, Anton Kusuma; Tanjung, Mariani St.B
  15. Persuasive Agenda-Setting: Rodrigo Duterte's Inauguration Speech and Drugs in the Philippines By Jetter, Michael; Molina, Teresa
  16. Реформа государственной системы проектной деятельности, 2018-2019 годы By Polterovich, Victor
  17. Asian Bond Market Development By Masahiro Kawai
  18. Addressing the Needs of Highly Vulnerable Households in Luzon during the Covid-19 Lockdown By Geoffrey Ducanes; Sarah Lynne Daway-Ducanes; Edita Tan
  19. Borrowing constraints and export decision : the case of Vietnamese exporters By T.T.A. Duong; C.J.M. Kool; L. Zhang
  20. Nonstationary Panel Models with Latent Group Structures and Cross-Section Dependence By Huang, Wenxin; Jin, Sainan; Phillips, Peter C.B.; Su, Liangjun
  21. Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy By Yongheng Deng; Eric Girardin; Roselyne Joyeux
  22. Corrigendum to “On Time-varying Factor Models: Estimation and Testing” [J. Econometrics 198 (2017) 84-101] By Su, Liangjun; Wang, Xia

  1. By: Asadullah, Niaz (University of Malaya); Perera, Liyanage Devangi (Monash University); Xiao, Saizi (University of Malaya)
    Abstract: This paper examines the nature and drivers of Vietnam's paradoxical performance in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) – consistently high student achievement despite being the poorest of all participating countries and a centralized education system. We first document 'Vietnam advantage' in a wide-range of supply and demand-related indicators such as school participation rate, educational inequality, inputs and expenditure in cross-country regression models. We then estimate an augmented educational production function to show that these supply and demand-side advantages don't explain away Vietnam's positive deviance in PISA when compared to other participating developing and developed countries. We then conduct student-level analysis to examine Vietnam's performance in PISA 2012 in a regional context, vis-a-vis three high-spending but low-performing ASEAN member countries (Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand) and two high performing Asian countries (South Korea and Singapore). Pooled regression estimates show that, holding differences in various indices of socioeconomic background, the gap in average student test scores between Vietnam and South Korea in Reading and Science becomes statistically insignificant. Moreover, once school-specific differences are also accounted for, Vietnamese students do just as well as Singaporean across all subjects — equalizing for existing socioeconomic differences between countries would give Vietnam an even better advantage in the PISA. A similar gain in PISA scores is absent in the case of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. The paper concludes by offering a cultural explanation for the significant variation in educational performance among high-spending East Asian countries.
    Keywords: ASEAN, Confucian culture, expenditure policy, school quality, Malaysia
    JEL: A20 I21 I28
    Date: 2020–03
  2. By: Hien Thu Pham (CSIRO, QLD, Australia); Nhan Buu Phan (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Shino Takayama (School of Economics, University of Queensland)
    Abstract: By applying recently developed methodologies to Vietnamese data from 2000 to 2016, this paper studies production efficiencies and total factor productivity in manufacturing industries, using two separate empirical methodologies. The paper shows that middle-sized firms’ production efficiencies tend to be lower than those of small-sized or large-sized firms in most of the manufacturing industries, and that the middle-sized firms are quite diverse in terms of efficiencies. Further, we show that the level of productivity is also quite diverse across different firm sizes in most industries. Given these observations, we present a simple theoretical analysis to indicate how our empirical findings could affect a firm’s decision in expanding business size. Over the past few decades, the Vietnamese government has conducted policies to promote small-sized and middlesized firms. Our findings indicate the importance of adopting policies that reduce the uncertainty that those firms may possibly face, such as financial support.
    Date: 2020–03–26
  3. By: Aginta, Harry; Gunawan, Anang Budi; Mendez, Carlos
    Abstract: Reducing regional income disparities is a central challenge for promoting sustainable development in Indonesia. In particular, the prospect for these disparities to be reduced in the post-decentralization period has become a major concern for policymakers in Indonesia. Motivated by this background, this paper re-examines the regional convergence hypothesis at the district level in Indonesia over the 2000-2017 period. Using a novel data set, this study investigates the formation of multiple convergence clubs using non-linear dynamic factor model. The results indicate that Indonesian districts form five convergence clubs, implying that the growth of income per capita in 514 districts can be clustered into five common trends. From the lens of spatial distribution, two common occasions can be observed. First, districts belonging to the the same province tend be in the same club and second, the highest club is dominated by districts with specific characteristic (i.e., big cities or natural resources rich regions). From a policy standpoint, the identification of multiple convergence clubs at significantly different levels of income allows regional policy makers to identify districts facing similar challenges.
    Keywords: regional income inequality, convergence, districts, Indonesia
    JEL: O40 O47 R10 R11
    Date: 2020–03
  4. By: Sadewo, Yosua Damas
    Abstract: Kewirausahaan merupakan salah satu faktor penentu kemajuan ekonomi suatu bangsa. Kegiatan wirausaha di negara Indonesia menjadi salah satu faktor dalam mengurangi angka pengangguran yang ada. Kondisi ini tentu sangat menguntungkan negara Indonesia mengingat banyaknya angka pengangguran di Indonesia. Meninjau kondisi tersebut, STIM Shanti Bhuana sebagai salah satu perguruan tinggi di Indonesia menyediakan program studi pendidikan kewirausahaan dengan tujuan mencetak calon wirausaha muda yang handal, cerdas, kreatif dan inovatif. Sebagai perguruan tinggi yang berdiri di perbatasan, STIM Shanti Bhuana menerapkan pendidikan berbasis ketahanan nasional dalam proses perkuliahan serta dalam pelaksanaan dharma perguruan tinggi. Secara khusus pada program pendidikan, ketahanan nasional ini selanjutnya menjadi bagian pada salah satu mata kuliah penciri institusi. Hal ini dimaksudkan untuk memupuk jiwa nasionalisme para mahasiswa secara khusus pada program studi kewirausahaan. Pendidikan kewirausahaan pada umumnya menciptakan wirausaha muda yang kreatif dan inovatif, sehingga mampu bersaing seiring perkembangan jaman. Namun STIM Shanti Bhuana tidak hanya berfokus untuk mencetak calon wirausaha yang demikian melainkan juga diimbangi dengan jiwa nasionalisme. Oleh sebab itu penanaman karakter nasionalisme berlandaskan pada unsur ketahanan nasional, yakni mandiri, dinamis, wibawa, dan kerjasama. Unsur-unsur tersebut selanjutnya dijadikan landasan karakter wirausaha untuk berkepribadian ketahanan nasional. Pembentukan karakter wirausaha berkepribadian nasional dilakukan dalam proses perkuliahan.
    Date: 2019–11–05
  5. By: Alvianis, Pesmin; PURNOMO, YIDA SEKTI
    Abstract: Pandemi korona kian menebar ancaman yang mengganggu stabilitas negara-negara yang ada di dunia. Indonesia termasuk yang kena dampak besar karena banyaknya warga negara Indonesia yang menjadi korban. Hal ini dapat berakibat pada timbulnya masalah serius yang menerpa paling setiap bidang kehidupan. Diantaranya yakni banyaknya perusahaan yang libur sebab ada larangan bekerja yang dibuat oleh pemerintah. Keadaan ini bisa “dimanfaatkan” oleh pengusaha yang kebetulan tidak suka dengan pegawai sehingga pegawai dipecat. Kalau ini terjadi, maka melanggar undang-undang bahkan pengusaha tersebut bisa dihukum seberat-beratnya karena melakukan tindakan tersebut pada saat sedang darurat. Keadaan darurat ini juga bisa digunakan oleh banyak pihak untuk melakukan kegiatan korupsi. Kenapa ini bisa terjadi? Karena pemerintah pusat Republik Indonesia telah membolehkan pemerintah daerah atau instansi untuk menggunakan sebagian dana dalam upaya melawan penyakit tersebut. oleh sebab itu menurut penulis situasi ini dapat dicegah ketika ada hukum khusus yang bisa memonitoring, mengevaluasi, memberi hukuman terhadap pemanfaatan keadaan seperti ini. Tentunya hukum khusus ini dibuat menurut hukum yang berlaku di negara Republik Indonesia yang kita cintai ini.
    Date: 2020–03–30
  6. By: Viet-Phuong La; Thanh-Hang Pham; Manh Toan Ho; Minh Hoang Nguyen; Nguyen Phuc Khanh Linh; Thu-Trang Vuong; Hong Kong To Nguyen; Manh-Tung Ho; Quan-Hoang Vuong
    Abstract: With the geographic proximity and high volume of trade with China, Vietnam was expected to have a high risk of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. However, to date [mid-March 2020], in comparison to attempts to containing the disease around the world, responses from Vietnam are seen as prompt and effective in protecting the interests of its citizens. This study analyzes the situation in terms of Vietnam’s policy response, social media, and science journalism. It contributes valuable lessons for other nations in the concurrent fight against the COVID-19 pandemic via fostering genuine cooperation between government, civil society, and private individuals.
    Keywords: Coronavirus; COVID-19; Pandemic; Policy Response; Social Media; Science Journalism; Public Health System; Vietnam
    JEL: I12 I18 Q54
    Date: 2020–03–24
  7. By: Quan-Hoang Vuong; Nguyen Phuc Khanh Linh; Viet Phuong La; Thu-Trang Vuong; Manh-Tung Ho; Minh Hoang Nguyen; Thanh-Hang Pham; Manh Toan Ho
    Abstract: As an example of a recent emerging economy, Vietnam has witnessed changes in its research policies and productivity during the last ten years. Since the establishment of the National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) in 2008, the Vietnamese scientific community had adapted to new international standards in 2014 and 2017, which resulted in different productivity between social sciences and humanities (SSH) disciplines. Therefore, to understand the effects of new research policies, this study deploys Bayesian analysis on a comprehensive dataset of 1,564 Vietnamese authors in the 2008-2018 period. The dataset was extracted from the exclusively designed Social Sciences Humanities Peer Award (SSHPA) database ( Various factors are considered in the data collecting process, including age, gender, new authors in a year, leading authors, co-authorship, and journal’s Impact Factor (JIF). The findings indicate three main characteristics of the Vietnamese SSH community after the research policy application. First, in terms of output, Economics is the dominant field relative to other SSH’s disciplines in Vietnam. It has contributed 858 publications in 12 years, about two times as much as the total output of Education, the second place. Economics also experiences a high level of contribution from authors at the age of 40-44 and nearly 500 new authors within the period. Secondly, despite a rapid rise in the number of lead authors, gender disparity among disciplines is a critical issue. Male researchers outnumber female ones in Economics and Social medicine, with Education being the sole exception. Lastly, authors in Education appears to have less international collaboration than those in Social medicine, Economics, and other fields. The success of Economics could be a reference point for other SSH disciplines to increase their research output. These findings enable a better understanding of SSH research policy application and call for a more suitable policy to support female academics in a number of SSH fields.
    Keywords: Social sciences and humanities; Social medicine; Education; Scientific productivity; Research policy application; Economics; SSHPA database; Vietnam
    JEL: A00 A10 B40 I20
    Date: 2020–03–18
  8. By: Luca Alfieri; Nino Kokashvili
    Abstract: This article aims to measure and compare the voting power of the member states of two financial nets: the ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) - Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralized (CMIM) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Furthermore, the study observes the changes to the CMIM before and after the increase of its resources in 2012. The literature on the comparison between regional safety nets lacks proper evaluations from a political economy perspective. This work fills the gap in the literature by placing two of the most important and recent regional financial safety nets under scrutiny. The article employs empirical analyses using two typical measurements of voting systems such as the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices. The article shows that the small ASEAN countries, contrary to assumptions in the literature, have been penalised after changes in 2012. By observing simple voting weights only, these effects are not visible. However, based on the results obtained from Shapley-Shubik and the Banzhaf power measurements, we argue that the voting powers of big countries, such as Japan and China, have increased after the changes in the system in 2012. In contrast to the ASEAN example, results in the case of the ESM show that there are no substantial differences in the voting powers of member states based on the Banzhaf index and Shapley-Shubik Index. Based on the empirical results of the article, the authors suggest that AMRO-CMIM should take into account the ESM experience regarding the voting mechanism.
    Keywords: Financial Safety Nets, Chang Mai Initiative, European Stability Mechanism, voting power
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Quan-Hoang Vuong; Thanh-Hang Pham; Trung Tran; Thu-Trang Vuong; Nguyen Manh Cuong; Nguyen Phuc Khanh Linh; Viet-Phuong La; Manh Toan Ho
    Abstract: United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals 4 Quality Education has highlighted major challenges for all nations to ensure inclusive and equitable quality access to education, facilities for children, and young adults. The SDG4 is even more important for developing nations as receiving proper education or vocational training, especially in science and technology, means a foundational step in improving other aspects of their citizens’ lives. However, the extant scientific literature about STEM education still lacks focus on developing countries, even more so in the rural area. Using a dataset of 4967 observations of junior high school students from a rural area in a transition economy, the article employs the Bayesian approach to identify the interaction between gender, socioeconomic status, and students’ STEM academic achievemen ts. The results report gender has little association with STEM academic achievements; however, female students (αa_Sex[2] = 2.83) appear to have achieved better results than their male counterparts (αa_Sex[1] = 2.68). Families with better economic status, parents with a high level of education (βb(EduMot) = 0 .07), or non-manual jobs (αa_SexPJ[4] = 3.25) are found to be correlated with better study results. On the contrary, students with zero (βb(OnlyChi) = -0.14) or more than two siblings (βb(NumberofChi) = -0.01) are correlated with lower study results compared to those with only one sibling. These results imply the importance of providing women with opportunities for better education. Policymakers should also consider maintaining family size so the parents can provide their resources to each child equally.
    Keywords: STEM education; Gender gap; Socioeconomic status; Social disparities; SDGs; Developing country; Rural area
    JEL: I24 I25 O15
    Date: 2020–03–16
  10. By: Denni, Denni; Buntukaraeng, Buntukaraeng; Wijaya, Hengki (Sekolah Tinggi Filsafat Jafray Makassar)
    Abstract: Makanan Tahu isi adalah lauk pauk yang umum dikonsumsi di Indonesia sebagai cemilan atau jadi lauk pauk Bersama nasi putih. Namun ketika tahu isi ini dimodifikasi dengan isinya diganti dengan daging ikan lele tentunya mengubah cita rasnya. Selama ini dikenal dengan tahu isi yang berisi sayuran, dan tauge serta cabe. Olahan kedelai ini bernilai gizi yang baik. Hasil uji organoleptik tahu isi Lele atau disingkat TISel memberikan penilaian suka untuk cita rasa, warna, aroma, dan tekstur. Dengan demikian, tahu isi ini dapat dipasarkan ke masyarakat karena memiliki nilai jual yang sesuai dengan ketertarikan konsumen. Harganya juga terjangkau yaitu dua ribu rupiah
    Date: 2020–03–13
  11. By: Fernandes,Ana Margarida; Kee,Hiau Looi; Winkler,Deborah Elisabeth
    Abstract: The past decades witnessed big changes in international trade with the rise of global value chains. Some countries, such as China, Poland, and Vietnam, rode the tide, while other countries, many in the Africa region, faltered. This paper studies the determinants of participation in global value chains, based on empirical evidence from a panel data set covering more than 100 countries over the past three decades. The evidence shows that factor endowments, geography, political stability, liberal trade policies, foreign direct investment inflows, and domestic industrial capacity are very important in determining participation in global value chains. These factors affect participation in global value chains more than traditional exports.
    Date: 2020–03–26
  12. By: yanti, Mega
    Abstract: Pengaruh perkembangan zaman di kalangan pemuda di era sekarang ini sangat berkembang pesat khususnya di Indonesia. Berbagai pengaruh kemajuan teknologi dapat di peroleh dengan sangat mudah. Hal ini jugalah yang merupakan permasalahan serius khususnya bagi perkembang spiritualitas mahasiswa teologi. Berdasarkan hal tersebut perlu diadakan tindakan agar tidak terjadi sesuatu yang tidak dinginkan, dan untuk menaggulangi permasalahan tersebut perlu di adakannya secara rutin kegiatan PA(Pendalaman Alkitab) dan ibadah. Berdasarkan hal tersebut maka diadakanlah penelitian mengenai faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi perkembangan spiritualitas mahasiswa teologi melalui kegiatan PA.
    Date: 2020–03–15
  13. By: Jaya, Anton Kusuma; Tanjung, Mariani St.B
    Abstract: The purpose of this research was: 1) to explain whether there was a Climate of leadership, Organizational Behavior Disciplines Work on performance of Member unit of the police of the Republic of Indonesia Sabhara Resort City of Padang and 2) measure the magnitude of the influence of Climate leadership, Organizational Behavior Disciplines Work on performance of Member unit of the police of the Republic of Indonesia Sabhara Resort City of Padang. This research was conducted in February-March 2016 in Sabhara units of the police force of the Republic Indonesia's resort city of Padang. The sample used in this study as many as 32 respondents using a sampling of saturated. As for the independent variable of climate leadership, Organizational Behavior Disciplines work, whereas the variable dependennya is the performance of members of the police. This research is explanatory research. The method of data collection is the kuestioner. Data analysis techniques using Descriptive Analysis and Inferensial Analysis. To know how the variables are independent of the dependent variable are partial, used test t. Whereas to know the influence of the variables are independent of the dependent variables simultaneously, use the test F. Assumptions used in the test of validity is if R-female > R-table item is declared valid. R-count shown in the table above, from individual items suggests that R-female > R-table so that the items are declared valid. Based on a test of the validity of the instrument of climate leadership, Organizational Behavior and discipline Work against Performance known to all items stated valid and reliability test results show that the instruments have a high reliability and meets the criteria of a good instrument requirements, i.e., valid and reliability. Free Leadership Behavior variables (X 1) effect significantly to performance (Y), Organizational Climate (X 2) a significant effect on performance, variable (Y) Discipline work (X 3) a significant effect on performance (Y). Hypothesis (H1) until the Union (H3) third.
    Date: 2019–11–06
  14. By: Tanjung, Mariani St.B; , Suhardiman
    Abstract: Cooperation is a family organization with legal status which at present is get the government's attention. Cooperation built to create businesses and services in creating the principle of kinship which correspond to economic democracy.This research aimed to analyze the financial performance of cooperatives through the effect of the ratio Liquidity, Solvency and Profitability against Time Results of Operations (SHU) at Primkoppol Mapolda West Sumatra were conducted over 5 years (2010 s / d 2014), where the ratio is used to search for Liquidity (current ratio), Solvency (Long Term Debt to Equity ratio) and profitability (Return on Assets ratio). This study uses secondary data of financial statements with quantitative approach. The results of this research indicate that the variable Liquidity, Solvency and Profitability affect the rest of Results of Operations (SHU). It can be seen from 1). Financial Statement Analysis, 2). Linear Regression Analysis, 3). T test, 4). Test F and 5). The coefficient of determination (R²)
    Date: 2019–11–01
  15. By: Jetter, Michael (University of Western Australia); Molina, Teresa (University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: Can democratically elected politicians persuade their constituents to alter policy priorities? With little empirical support for this hypothesis to date, we propose that Rodrigo Duterte's inauguration speech on June 30, 2016 systematically shifted the Filipinos' policy agenda toward prioritizing illegal drugs. We first study day-to-day variation in national and sub-national Google searches over six months, identifying a strong and persistent increase in drug-related searches right after the speech. Placebo tests rule out potentially confounding topics, such as pharmaceutical drugs, Duterte's 'War on Drugs', or common time trends with neighboring countries. Next, to better identify causality, we exploit the exogenous timing of traditional local festivals, which we argue resulted in some of the Philippines' 81 provinces being less exposed to Duterte's speech. The corresponding results are consistent with our hypothesis: less exposed provinces had smaller increases in drug-related Google searches. Finally, we examine individual-level survey responses that more directly capture policy priorities and uncover similar results: crime has moved to the top of the Filipinos' policy agenda. Results that exploit the same identication strategy based on local festivals hint at a causal effect of the speech on these policy priorities.
    Keywords: agenda setting, persuasion, policy priorities
    JEL: D72 H11 H75 I12 K42 N45
    Date: 2020–03
  16. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: The reform of the project activity state system (PASS) carried out in Russia in 2018-2019 is analyzed on the basis of its comparison with the system of institutions of catching-up development (ICD). The expediency of their implementation in modern conditions is confirmed by the experience of Malaysia and Tatarstan. Relying on the IСD system, Malaysia has been able to achieve rapid economic growth, reduce inequality and make significant strides in diversifying production. Due to a system of indicative planning and consolidation of elites, Tatarstan has become one of the most successful regions in Russia. The PASS built now, like the ICD system, brings the task of forming and selecting large-scale projects outside ministries and creates an institutional framework for indicative planning. The next task is to define more precisely the order of interaction of project offices, expert councils of different levels, private companies, and to develop a methodology for drawing up forecasts and plans of development indicators. Civil society and trade union representatives should be involved in these activities. Functions of PASS should be expanded, it is necessary to replenish the list of national projects. Large-scale projects should be aimed at borrowing more advanced technologies, creating new value chains and diversifying the Russian economy. The government faces the task of promoting inter-regional and intercompany technology exchange. The "Science" project should be substantially redesigned, and a project on improving the national innovation system should be developed. It should include a system of sectorial research institutes as intermediaries between academic science and the research units of large firms. Ultimately, a Federal Agency for Development with broad credentials should be created, a system of rolling indicative planning should be formed, and all economic policies should be harmonized with the objectives of the plans.
    Keywords: development agency; indicative planning; economic growth; project office; competence center
    JEL: L52 O21 O25 P11 P21
    Date: 2020–03–17
  17. By: Masahiro Kawai (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA))
    Keywords: local-currency bonds; market liquidity; Asian Bond Fund; Asian Bond Markets Initiative; credit rating; cross-border securities settlement
    Date: 2019–01
  18. By: Geoffrey Ducanes (Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University); Sarah Lynne Daway-Ducanes (School of Economics, University of the Philippines); Edita Tan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines)
    Abstract: In this brief article, we attempt to quantify the number of highly vulnerable (to hunger and poverty) households in Luzon, resulting from the Covid-19 lockdown, and to estimate the amount of money that will be needed to address their vulnerability. Highly vulnerable households are defined as those unlikely to receive income during the lockdown period and which likely have little or no savings to tide them over. Using nationally-representative household data, we estimate the number of highly vulnerable households in Luzon at 2.4 million and the amount needed to support their food and non-food needs at Php17.7 billion per month, with the amount per month likely to rise if the lockdown is extended. We also propose a way for the government to operationalize the process of identifying and helping highly vulnerable households.
    Keywords: social protection, vulnerable households, poverty, targeting, Covid-19, lockdown
    JEL: I32 I38 H53
  19. By: T.T.A. Duong; C.J.M. Kool; L. Zhang
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of borrowing constraints and productivity on the export decision of Vietnamese firms, where we approximate borrowing constraints by leverage and the tangible asset ratio. Using a large firm-level dataset for the years 2009-2014, we show that borrowing constraints play an important role in the export decision. There is an inverse U-shaped relationship between leverage and the export probability for private manufacturers. The marginal effect of leverage is declining with leverage, but positive up till a leverage ratio of about 47 percent and negative beyond. Borrowing constraints matter both for the decision to start exporting and for the decision to continue exporting, but more so for the latter. Medium and high productive firms are more sensitive to borrowing constraints than low productive firms.
    Keywords: international trade, heterogeneous firms, non-linear effects, probit analysis, leverage, productivity, credit constraints
    Date: 2019–12
  20. By: Huang, Wenxin (Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Jin, Sainan (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Phillips, Peter C.B. (Yale University); Su, Liangjun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel Lasso-based approach to handle unobserved parameter heterogeneity and cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models. In particular, a penalized principal component (PPC) method is developed to estimate group-specific long-run relationships and unobserved common factors and jointly to identify the unknown group membership. The PPC estimators are shown to be consistent under weakly dependent innovation processes. But they suffer an asymptotically non-negligible bias from correlations between the nonstationary regressors and unobserved stationary common factors and/or the equation errors. To remedy these shortcomings we provide three bias-correction procedures under which the estimators are re-centered about zero as both dimensions (N and T) of the panel tend to infinity. We establish a mixed normal limit theory for the estimators of the group-specific long-run coefficients, which permits inference using standard test statistics. Simulations suggest the good finite sample performance of the proposed method. An empirical application applies the methodology to study international R&D spillovers and the results offer a convincing explanation for the growth convergence puzzle through the heterogeneous impact of R&D spillovers.
    Keywords: Nonstationarity; Parameter heterogeneity; Latent group patterns; Penalized principal component; Cross-section dependence; Classifier Lasso; R&D spillovers
    JEL: C13 C33 C38 C51 F43 O32 O40
    Date: 2020–03–24
  21. By: Yongheng Deng (NUS - National University of Singapore); Eric Girardin (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Roselyne Joyeux (Macquarie University)
    Abstract: In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to "bubble" concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai. However many observers and researchers argue that fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on the government housing prices which may suffer from the well-documented downward bias, this paper uses original high frequency unit price as well as transaction series for the residential resale housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai between January 2005 and December 2010 to test alternative hypotheses about housing prices volatility.
    Date: 2018–04
  22. By: Su, Liangjun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Wang, Xia (Lingnan (University) College, Sun Yat-sen University)
    Abstract: We note that Su and Wang (2017, On Time-varying Factor Models: Estimation and Testing, Journal of Econometrics 198, 84-101) ignore the bias terms when estimating the time-varying factor models. In this note, we correct the theoretical results on the estimation of time-varying factor models. The asymptotic results for testing the correct specification of time invariant factor loadings are not affected.
    Keywords: Approximation error; Bias; Correction; Factor Model; Time-varying
    JEL: C12 C14 C33 C38
    Date: 2020–02–27

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