|
on South East Asia |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Indonesian economy performed well in 2018, despite external headwinds, including capital flow reversals. Growth stabilized above 5 percent and inflation eased to around 3 percent. A surge in imports and weak export growth contributed to a higher current account deficit. Growth is projected to remain stable over the medium term. Inflation is expected to remain within the target band and the current account deficit is expected to narrow gradually on lower imports. Risks are tilted to the downside and are mainly external. Reliance on portfolio inflows to finance the twin deficits leaves Indonesia vulnerable to capital flow reversals. President Joko Widodo has been re-elected for a second term and has committed to push ahead with economic reforms. Creating quality jobs for the young and growing population to harness Indonesia’s demographic dividend requires a stronger impetus to growth, which has been constrained by structural weaknesses, including low tax revenues, shallow financial markets, and labor and product market rigidities. |
| Date: | 2019–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/250&r=all |
| By: | Stephan Klasen; Janneke Pieters; Manuel Santos Silva; Le Thi Ngoc Tu |
| Abstract: | We investigate the micro-level determinants of labor force participation of urban married women in eight low- and middle-income economies: Bolivia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Jordan, South Africa, Tanzania, and Vietnam. In order to understand what drives changes and differences in participation rates since the early 2000s, we build a unified empirical framework that allows for comparative analyses across time and space. We find that the coefficients of women’s characteristics differ substantially across countries, and this explains most of the between-country differences in participation rates. In particular, the relationship between a woman’s education and her participation in the labor force varies from being positive and linear (Brazil and South Africa) to being U- or J-shaped (India, Jordan, and Indonesia), or a mixture of both (Bolivia, Vietnam, and Tanzania). Overall, the economic, social, and institutional constraints that shape women’s labor force participation remain largely country-specific. Nonetheless, rising education levels and declining fertility consistently increased participation rates, while rising household incomes contributed negatively in relatively poorer countries, suggesting that a substantial share of women work out of economic necessity. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation; gender; labor markets; development |
| JEL: | J20 J16 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:253&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Singapore’s macroeconomic performance has been impressive. GDP per capita more than doubled in the last twenty years and income inequality has been declining since the GFC. Policies have been aimed at boosting growth while promoting greater equity. As a highly open economy and an important financial center, Singapore is strongly influenced by developments in the region and the rest of the world. Singapore’s growth is expected to continue to moderate as export momentum slows and growth drivers shift back to domestic demand. Inflationary pressures remain modest. The current account surplus declined in 2019Q1 from a year ago but remains large as a share of GDP. Risks to the near-term outlook are tilted to the downside and arise mainly from external sources. Over the medium term, modern services are expected to become increasingly important in driving growth. |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/233&r=all |
| By: | Mala Raghavan; Evelyn S. Devadason |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amidst the unfolding effects of the US-China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (US, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a structural VAR framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1 to 2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the US and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the US and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects, apart from the direct trade links. |
| Keywords: | trade links, SVAR model, ASEAN-5, China, US |
| JEL: | F41 C32 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-53&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Rising trade tensions and volatility in emerging economies were felt in Vietnam in 2018. Nevertheless, the real economy remains resilient, the private sector-led expansion is broad-based, and inflation remains muted. The public finances are being consolidated, bank capital rules strengthened, and capital markets are deepening. Risks are related to geopolitics, trade policy uncertainty and domestic reform implementation. Longer term risks relate to aging, climate change and digitalization. |
| Date: | 2019–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/235&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Singapore is a small and very open economy and a major financial center. The financial system is highly integrated into international financial markets and serves as an important regional financial hub. After a period of subdued economic activity, growth accelerated in 2017–18, but is expected to moderate in 2019. To strengthen long-term growth prospects, amid population aging, the government is pursuing a strategy to transform the economy by harnessing emerging digital technologies. In the financial services area, this strategy has put Singapore at the forefront in fintech. |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/224&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech, VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition) |
| Abstract: | In 2016, Vietnam planned to build a fleet of new coal-fired power plants, expanding capacity to 54.5 GW in 2030, from 13.1 GW in 2015. Three years later, the risk of stranded assets not only made this plan sub-optimal, it also made it infeasible because investors are looking elsewhere. |
| Date: | 2019–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02263622&r=all |
| By: | Nadezhda V. Baryshnikova (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Ngoc T. A. Pham (School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Adelaide); Nicholas C. S. Sim (Singapore University of Social Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Reducing child marriage is seen as one of the essentials to women’s empowerment and wellbeing, ending the intergenerational cycle of poverty and rights violation. In this paper, we use a longitudinal household survey from Indonesia to study whether a food subsidy (Raskin) reduces child marriage. Modelling treatment assignment with Coarsened Exact Matching and Differences-in-Differences, we show that the unconditional rice subsidy significantly reduces the likelihood of marrying as a child. |
| Keywords: | Child marriage, Food subsidy, Raskin, Indonesia, Coarsened exact matching, Diffs-in-Diffs |
| JEL: | J82 I21 I38 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2019-5&r=all |
| By: | Nadezhda V. Baryshnikova (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Ngoc T. A. Pham (School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Adelaide); Nicholas C. S. Sim (Singapore University of Social Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Reducing child marriage is seen as one of the essentials to women’s empowerment and wellbeing, ending the intergenerational cycle of poverty and rights violation. In this paper, we use a longitudinal household survey from Indonesia to study whether a food subsidy (Raskin) reduces child marriage. Modelling treatment assignment with Coarsened Exact Matching and Differences-in-Differences, we show that the unconditional rice subsidy significantly reduces the likelihood of marrying as a child. |
| Keywords: | Child marriage, Food subsidy, Raskin, Indonesia, Coarsened exact matching, Diffs-in-Diffs |
| JEL: | J82 I21 I38 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2019-05&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This note offers three narratives about the future of coal based electricity generation in Vietnam. "Blazing up" corresponds to the power development plan 7 revised and updated as of March 2019. "Closed window" tells what we think would happen under pure market forces. "Coal peak" tells what could happen if the State continues to steer the electricity system into the energy transition, decisively and without imposing high costs to stakeholders. |
| Date: | 2019–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02263898&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Macroprudential policy in Singapore has centered on the property market, given the importance of this market for households’ balance sheets, banks’ loan portfolios, and the potential systemic risks. In the last decade, the authorities have been proactive in using property-related macroprudential tools to promote a stable and sustainable property market and to encourage financial prudence among borrowers. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is the authority with a macroprudential policy mandate. |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/227&r=all |
| By: | Naoki FUJIWARA (Associate Professor, Faculty of Regional Development Studies, Otemon Gakuin University, Osaka, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Urbanization has progressed in parallel with rapid economic development in Asia, and people living in the region’s megacities face severe urban environmental problems, with the water-environment problem being especially serious. Such cities must develop the infrastructure to provide clean water and process sewage in densely populated areas. Meanwhile, water-supply and sewerage services in Japan are conducted by municipalities as a public service, but their revenues are shrinking in response to a decreasing birthrate, an aging population, and the waterconservation movement. In this study, we investigated the overseas expansion of Japanese public water services as an effort to improve the living environment in developing Asian countries and to advance the sustainability of public water services. The research methods included scrutinizing preliminary research, conducting case studies through text analysis of materials issued by national and local governments, and conducting interviews with municipalities. We examined four urban municipal water services, including ones in Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, and Kitakyushu, that developed publicprivate cooperative platform associations for expanding abroad. As a result of the research, we first identified the overseas expansion of public water services as a collaborative model—based on an international inter-city network—for solving urban problems. Japan’s water-related public and private sectors have a motivation to share their technologies and experiences of solving urban waterrelated environmental problems with the growing cities of Asia, but it is difficult for Japanese public water services to sustain a unilateral contribution to developing countries because their business environment is becoming less hospitable in a shrinking domestic market. Therefore, with national governmental support, major municipal water services in Japan have aimed to expand their business abroad to achieve regional economic development, relying on trust based on the solidarity and cooperation of the international cities to reduce the transaction cost of international water-related project development. Second, we clarify that the public-private cooperative platform established by the leadership of municipalities enhances the accountability and transparency of the overseas expansion projects of public water services. Municipalities hold themselves accountable to be fair to citizens and stakeholders. The Public and private cooperative platform established by Japanese public water service, as an intermediate organization, not only develops the implementation capacity but also strengthens accountability and transparency of the international public water service 5 expansion projects’ sharing information about the water-environment problems of each cities and selecting project partner companies. Third, we find that the international city networks that municipalities build are evolving from one-to-one mutual networks to multilateral networks. To date, municipalities have developed international sister-city networks that centered more on cultural and educational administrative exchanges. Recent years, however, have witnessed the rise of more pragmatic city networks that focus on problem-solving city liaisons. Municipalities are realizing the efficiency of mutual project-making and of participating in international associations or organizations of cities for specific purposes. They even organize international meetings or conferences at which they seek business partner cities, promote their environment technologies to their region, and enhance their brand images as regional technology hubs. |
| Keywords: | cooperative platform, accountability, multilateral network |
| JEL: | L32 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:1909&r=all |
| By: | Xu, Shang; Klaiber, Allen; Miteva, Daniela A. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290986&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2019–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/251&r=all |
| By: | Lennart Kaplan; Jana Kuhnt; Katharina Richert; Sebastian Vollmer |
| Abstract: | A crucial prerequisite for the success of development interventions is their uptake in the targeted population. We use the setup of an intervention conducted in Indonesia and Pakistan to investigate dis-/incentivizing factors for program’s uptake and support. Making use of a framework grounded in psychological theory, “The Theory of Planned Behaviour,” we consider three determinants for intervention uptake: personal attitudes, the social influence of important others and the perceived ease of intervention use. As most development interventions are characterized by a cooperation among local and international agents, we investigate further a potentially important dis-/incentivizing factor: the salience of the implementer’s background. Our findings show that attitudes, important others and ease of intervention use are indeed associated with increased uptake in our two culturally different settings. Conducting a framed field experiment in Indonesia we show further that the study population in the Acehnese context exhibits higher levels of support for the project if the participation of international actors is highlighted. We find that previous experience with the respective actor is pivotal. To strengthen supportive behaviour by the target population for locally led projects, it is essential to strengthen local capabilities to create positive experiences. Hence, our results encourage development research and cooperation, first, to consider personal attitudes, the social influence of important others and the perceived ease of intervention use in the design of interventions in order to increase uptake. Second, depending on the country context, implementers should consider the previous experience with and attitude towards partners – either local or international – when aiming to achieve behavioural change. |
| Keywords: | Theory of Planned Behaviour; Framed Field Experiment; Implementation Research; Public Health |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:261&r=all |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | - Is industrial policy necessary for successful development or the market “knows” better, how to allocate resources? - If industrial policy is needed, how to select industries that need to be supported? - What are the appropriate tools / instruments to support particular industries? Eastern European countries in general did not have any explicit industrial policy, neither via tax concessions and/or subsidies, nor via under/overpricing the exchange rate. Many countries of former Soviet Union carried out large import substitution programs through regulation of domestic fuel and energy prices (directly and via export tax) that subsidized all energy consumers. They also provided subsidies to agricultural enterprises. China and Vietnam (and to some extent Uzbekistan) were carrying out export oriented industrial policy mostly via underpricing the exchange rate. The paper discusses pros and cons, achievements and failures of various models of industrial policy. It is argued that export oriented industrial policy via undervaluation of the exchange rate is the best possible option to promote export oriented catch up development based on export of manufactured goods. It is especially needed for resource rich countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) that are prone to Dutch disease. Assistance to domestic producers via keeping low domestic prices for fuel and energy also helps to stimulate growth, but at a price of very high energy intensity. Industrial policy that is not targeting particular industries (general support for education, research and development and infrastructure) may be reasonable for counties at a higher level of development. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, economic diversification, industrial policy, exchange rate policy |
| JEL: | O14 O25 O4 |
| Date: | 2019–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95332&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Singapore’s financial market infrastructures (FMIs) have continued to operate safely and efficiently since they were assessed in the FSAP of 2013. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has taken important steps to address the recommendations made for capital market FMIs. Remedial actions were implemented or are in progress for the two central counterparties. The privately-operated securities settlement system has moved its SGD money settlements for equities and debt securities to settle at the MAS in December 2018. Two additional central counterparties and one trade repository have also entered the FMI landscape. MAS has signed a supervisory cooperation on crisis management arrangements with the U.S. authorities. |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/225&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is the designated resolution authority for financial institutions, including holding companies and domestic branches of foreign banks. In this role, MAS determines if the conditions for entry into resolution are met and designs and implements the resolution strategy. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) plays only a limited role in the technical decisions concerning bank resolution, intervening when the use of public resources is contemplated. In 2017, the passage of amendments to the MAS Act strengthened the resolution framework. It introduced enhanced resolution powers and strengthened the framework for recovery and resolution of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs). These powers are broadly consistent with international best practices as outlined in the Financial Stability Boards (FSB) Key Attributes for Effective Resolution of Financial Institutions. The powers are generally applicable to all financial institutions. |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/226&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Singapore is a large financial center with a strong regulatory framework and significant external exposures. Singapore is a small and very open economy with a high saving rate and a significant foreign asset position. It boasts a highly developed and sophisticated financial sector, with many foreign branches intermediating funds throughout the region. Regulations are closely aligned to international standards. Since the last FSAP, bank solvency and liquidity has improved, and the authorities have adopted Basel III capital and liquidity requirements and the new International Financial Reporting Standards. |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/228&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Fintech developments hold the promise of having a far-reaching impact on the Singaporean financial services sector, bringing both opportunities and new risks. Technological innovation is one of the most influential developments affecting the financial sector. While fintech promises opportunities for new entrants and incumbents, innovation and change introduce new risks for clients, financial institutions (FIs) and the system. Early indications suggest that while a significant amount of activity has taken place across the financial services landscape, the impact is largely characterized as helping incumbents deliver financial services in a more efficient manner as opposed to disrupting existing business models. Nonetheless, disruption could be around the corner. |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/229&r=all |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST) |
| Abstract: | Animal production accounts for 16% of international agri-food trade. The growing imbalance between supply and demand for animal products in Asian countries, where consumption is growing, particularly in China, stimulates trade for the benefit of the major exporting countries: the European Union (EU), the United States, New Zealand, Brazil and Australia. While this development offers trade opportunities for countries with a structural surplus, purchases fluctuate from year to year and price competition is very strong, despite the qualitative requirements of some countries. The EU, which has a positive trade balance in dairy products and pork, but a negative one (in monetary terms) in beef and poultry meat, is the world's largest exporter of animal products (with 22% of the extra-EU trade in 2016). This article analyses the evolution of trade in animal products using customs statistics data (BACI and COMEXT) from 2000 to 2016. It presents the evolution of international trade for different types of goods (dairy products, beef, pork, poultry meat) and highlights the trade trajectories (patterns) of the main net importing countries (China, Japan and Russia) and net exporting countries (India, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, the United States and the EU). |
| Abstract: | Les productions animales représentent 16% du commerce agroalimentaire international. Le déséquilibre croissant entre l'offre et la demande de produits animaux dans les pays asiatiques où la consommation progresse, surtout en Chine, stimule les échanges au bénéfice des grands pays exportateurs que sont l'Union européenne (UE), les Etats-Unis, la Nouvelle- Zélande, le Brésil et l'Australie. Si cette évolution offre des opportunités commerciales pour les pays structurellement excédentaires, les achats ne sont pas toujours réguliers d'une année à l'autre et la concurrence par les prix est très forte, même si certains pays ont des exigences qualitatives. L'UE, qui est excédentaire en produits laitiers et en viande porcine, mais déficitaire (en valeur) en viande bovine et en viande de volailles, est le premier exportateur mondial de productions animales (avec 22% du total, hors commerce intra-UE en 2016). En utilisant les données statistiques des douanes (BACI et COMEXT) de 2000 à 2016, cet article traite de l'évolution du commerce en productions animales. Il présente l'évolution du commerce international pour différents types de biens (produits laitiers, viande bovine, viande porcine, viande de volailles) et met en évidence les trajectoires commerciales des principaux pays déficitaires (Chine, Japon et Russie) et excédentaires (Inde, Australie, Nouvelle Zélande, Brésil, Etats-Unis et UE). |
| Keywords: | animal product,international trade patterns,trade balance,livestock farms,international trade,net trade,production animale,commerce international,balance commerciale |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02182574&r=all |
| By: | Gee Hee Hong; Anne Oeking; Kenneth H Kang; Changyong Rhee |
| Abstract: | Asian countries have high demand for U.S. dollars and are sensitive to U.S. dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis spread in the cross-currency swap market that emerges when there are deviations from covered interest parity (CIP). CIP deviations mean that investors need to pay a premium to borrow U.S. dollars or other currencies on a hedged basis via cross-currency swap markets. These deviations can be explained by regulatory changes since the global financial crisis, which have limited arbitrage opportunities and country-specific factors that contribute to a mismatch in the demand and supply of U.S. dollars. We find that an increase in the basis spread tightens financial conditions in net debtor countries, while easing financial conditions in net creditor countries. The main reason is that net debtor countries are, in general, unable to substitute smoothly to other domestic funding channels. Policies that promote reliable alternative funding sources, such as long-term corporate bond market or stable long-term investors, including a “hedging counterpart of last resort,” can help stabilize financial intermediation when U.S. dollar funding markets come under stress. |
| Date: | 2019–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/169&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Khan; Stephan Klasen |
| Abstract: | This study explores how domestic violence and female employment interact and impact female economic empowerment in developing economies. Using micro data data from 35 countries (Central Africa, West Africa, East Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, Middle East & North Africa, and Latin America), the effect of women’s employment on reported domestic violence is estimated. An instrumental Variables technique is used to correct for the potential endogeneity of women’s employment, which might bias the relationship between employment and domestic violence. The study also attempts to do an in-depth analyses on the linkage between types of domestic violence and break down results by region. Without taking endogeneity into account, the estimation suggests that most woman’s employment increases violence by her spouse, while formal sector work reduces it. After controlling for endogeneity, the results are confirmed for the full sample. Breaking down the estimation by region and controlling for endogeneity shows, however, that women’s employment decreases domestic violence in most regions except Latin America and East Africa. Differentiating by employment type shows that women working in agricultural occupations experience more marital abuse. |
| Keywords: | Domestic violence; Female Employment; Developing countries |
| JEL: | J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2018–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:249&r=all |
| By: | Caroline Devaux (Université de Nantes, France); Jean-Philippe Nicolai (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Faced with the widespread use of dismantling sites in Asia, whose processes present alarming health and environmental issues, the European Commission has raised the question of implementing a financial mechanism to encourage shipowners to use higher standards for ship recycling. This mechanism would take the form of a recycling licence applicable to any vessel wanting to call at a port within EU territory, whether flying the flag of an EU Member State or of a third country. The present paper aims to critically assess the main features of the EU’s proposed mechanism from a legal and economic perspective and to examine the criticisms the mechanism has received to date. Our study shows that reform is desirable but that the nature and success of the proposed licence remain uncertain, depending on whether the mechanism is able to provide sufficient incentives. In this light, the paper makes several suggestions designed to improve the project’s economic and legal viability. It also shows that such a project could speed up the entry into force of the Hong Kong Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships adopted in May 2009, whose ratification process has been severely delayed. |
| Keywords: | Shipbreaking, Financial instruments, Pollution, Hong Kong Convention, EU Regulation on Ship Recycling, World Trade Organization |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:19-323&r=all |
| By: | International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "The United Arab Emirates (UAE) comprises seven Emirates (Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm al-Quwain), bordering Oman to the east and Saudi Arabia to the south. In 2016 the total population was 9.2 million people, of whom 5 per cent under the age of 5 and 16.6 per cent under the age of 18. In 2013, immigrants constituted more than 83 per cent of the total population, with the majority of migrant workers being of South and South-East Asian descent. Children born to Emirati women married to non-Emirati men can only acquire citizenship when applying for it at the age of 18". (...) |
| Keywords: | Non-contributory, social protection, child, equity, lens, United Arab Emirates |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:oparab:409&r=all |
| By: | Kim, Kyoochul |
| Abstract: | Despite international sanctions, North Korea's trade has exhibited quantitative growth. However, the sanctions have also limited North Korea's trade partners to China. The surging demand for anthracite in China has skewed North Korea's trade structure, leaving it vulnerable to external shocks and possibly distorting the allocation of resources and diminishing the capital investment in other industries. In response, the South Korean government must make efforts to seek new measures for economic cooperation to encourage North Korea to foster other industries that have comparative advantage. In addition, assistance must be made available to enable North Korea to establish a balanced trade structure by diversifying its trade partners and trade portfolio. - North Korea's trade has grown in quantity since the 2000s. - North Korea's economic growth was unable to catch up with the growth in trade due to the qualitative decline. - North Korea's trade has been heavily dependent on China from the mid-2000s. - From 2008, North Korea's top export item has been anthracite and its export volume has expanded sharply. - The spike in North Korea's anthracite exports from the late 2000s was driven by demand factors including an increase in the demand for fossil fuels on China's economic development and also supply factors including the difficulties in earning foreign currency. - National income and economic growth are determined by qualitative aspects such as what items are being exported. - The trends in North Korea's physical and human capital investment helps to evaluate the quality of its export and to project the sustainability of its long-term economic growth. - An anthracite-dependent export structure would reduce the investment in physical and human capital, possibly leading to longterm economic stagnation. - Vietnam's exports have grown in both quantity and quality, since consistently expanding its export of hightech products, contrary to North Korea whose trade quality has weakened. - North Korea's China- and anthracite-dependent trade structure is vulnerable to external shocks as well as reducing human and physical capital investment, diminishing long-term growth. - The South Korean government needs to act as a bridge between North Korea and the world, helping North Korea discard the existing trade structure and transform itself into a normal member of the global economy. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:93&r=all |
| By: | Yang Mestre-Zhou (MRE, Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | In recent years the Chinese government has instituted a series of reforms to restructure and open the Chinese financial system. This paper studies the dynamic correlations and sensitivities between Chinese mainland stock market and five major stock markets with the multivariate t-DCC-GARCH model. We also consider a Normal-DCC model and results show that t-DCC improves slightly the results. The analysis of reforms’ effects on dynamic correlations and sensitivities prove that the Chinese mainland market is more closely tied to Asian stock markets over time, followed by the United States, and with relatively lower correlations with Europe and the United Kingdom. We highlight that the implementation of reforms changes theirs correlations and sensitivities over time. Since the reforms, the correlation between China and international stock markets has been reinforced. |
| Keywords: | DCC-GARCH, bivariate t distribution, Chinese Stock Market, Dynamic Correlation, Timevarying sensitivity, Chinese reforms |
| JEL: | C32 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:19-06&r=all |
| By: | D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier (CREST); Maurel, Arnaud (Duke University); Qiu, Xiaoyun (Northwestern University); Zhang, Yichong (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the eqregsel command for implementing the estimation and bootstrap inference of sample selection models via extremal quantile regression. The command estimates a semiparametric sample selection model without instrument or large support regressor, and outputs the point estimates of the homogenous linear coefficients, their bootstrap standard errors, as well as the p-value for a specification test. |
| Keywords: | extremal quantile regressions, sample selection models, eqregsel |
| JEL: | C21 C24 C87 J31 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12486&r=all |
| By: | Ando, Tomohiro (Melbourne University); Bai, Jushan (Columbia University); Nishimura, Mitohide (Nikko Asset Management Co. Ltd); Yu, Jun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that the standard estimators of the risk premium in asset pricing models are biased when some price factors are omitted. To address this problem, we propose a novel quantile-based asset pricing model and a new estimation method. Our new asset pricing model allows for the risk premium to be quantile-dependent and our estimation method is applicable to models with unobserved factors. It avoids biased estimation results and always ensures a positive risk premium. The method is applied to the U.S., Japan, and U.K. stock markets. The empirical analysis demonstrates the clear benefits of our approach. |
| Keywords: | Five-factor model; Quantile-based asset pricing model; Risk premium |
| JEL: | G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2019–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2019_015&r=all |
| By: | Isabelle Guérin (IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7) |
| Abstract: | Isabelle GUÉRIN J'ai eu la chance de faire partie de l'équipe de recherche Finance, exclusion et activités au sein du centre lyonnais Auguste et Léon Walras. Créée en 1997 par Jean-Michel Servet (JMS) avec l'étroite collaboration de David Vallat, doctorant à l'époque, cette équipe a perduré jusqu'à la dissolution du Centre Walras fin 2004. De nombreux liens se sont maintenus néanmoins, à la fois entre JMS et ses anciens doctorant(e)s, et entre doctorant(e)s, au travers de projets structurés ou d'échanges plus informels. Les notions de crédit et de dette ont été l'un des fils directeurs de ces collaborations, avec pour particularité de s'intéresser à la double face de la dette : moteur des liens sociaux et support potentiel de nouvelles solidarités, d'une part, source d'exploitation et de creusement des inégalités, d'autre part. À la relecture des travaux de JMS et de ses étudiant(e)s, émerge cette dimension ambivalente, à la fois universelle, tragique et émancipatrice. Universelle, puisque la dette est appréhendée comme une forme élémentaire et fondamentale de l'interdépendance entre les êtres humains ; tragique, puisque la dette est une source essentielle d'exploitation et de domination ; et enfin émancipatrice, puisque la dette est aussi un vecteur possible de solidarité, entendue ici comme interdépendance recherchée, de reconnaissance et d'intégration sociale. Ces trois aspects pourraient constituer l'esquisse d'une socioéconomie de la dette, et c'est à cette étude que ce chapitre est dédié. Participer à cette équipe de recherche a été une opportunité inouïe, loin du parcours solitaire dont souffrent nombre d'étudiants. Ce collectif a été un lieu d'échanges, de réflexions, de débats et de co-écriture fort stimulant, parfois contraignant-il supposait un engagement sans réserve !-mais d'une immense richesse. Au-delà de la transmission de connaissances, de projets en commun, et d'une mise en réseau-éléments qui sont déjà fort appréciables-JMS a su nous insuffler, me semble-t-il, une véritable vision de la recherche et de la socioéconomie : le lien étroit avec le terrain comme fondement premier de la connaissance, la nécessité d'être en prise systématique avec le réel et ses acteurs, une attention permanente aux sociétés qui nous entourent et à leurs mutations, à la fois en cours et à venir. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:ird-02196925&r=all |