nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2019‒07‒15
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Can the Tripartite Rubber Council manipulate international rubber prices? By Kopp, Thomas; Dalheimer, Bernhard; Alamsyah, Zulkifli; Yanita, Mirawati; Brümmer, Bernhard
  2. Federal fiscal policy effectiveness and Inequality: Empirical evidence on Gender Budgeting in Asia Pacific. By Chakraborty, Lekha
  4. Forecasting the Remittances of the Overseas Filipino Workers in the Philippines By Merry Christ E. Manayaga; Roel F. Ceballos
  5. Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies – evidence from inflation targeting economies in the Asia-Pacific region and potential implications for China By Soyoung Kim; Aaron Mehrotra
  6. The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity: Regional Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Hysteresis By Laura Alfaro; Alejandro Cunat; Harald Fadinger; Yanping Liu
  7. The Hoarding of International Reserves: It’s a neighborly day in Asia By Yin-Wong Cheung; XingWang Qian; Eli Remolona
  8. "Disaster Aid Targeting and Self-Reporting Bias: Natural Experimental Evidence from the Philippines" By Yuki Higuchi; Nobuhiko Fuwa; Kei Kajisa; Takahiro Sato; Yasuyuki Sawada
  9. "Disaster Aid Targeting and Self-Reporting Bias: Natural Experimental Evidence from the Philippines" By Yuki Higuchi; Nobuhiko Fuwa; Kei Kajisa; Takahiro Sato; Yasuyuki Sawada
  10. Systemic crisis and growth revisited: Has the global financial crisis marked a new era By Sven Steinkamp; Frank Westermann
  11. What Skills Lead to Entrepreneurial Success? Evidence from Non-Farm-Household Enterprises in Indonesia By Niken Kusumawardhani; Daniel Suryadarma; Luca Tiberti; Veto Tyas
  12. Remittance Inflows and State-Dependent Monetary Policy Transmission in Developing Countries By Immaculate Machasio; Peter Tillmann
  13. Dutch Shell Companies and International Tax Planning By Lejour, Arjan; Mohlmann, Jan; van't Riet, Maarten; Benschop, Thijs
  14. The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia By Samuel Bazzi; Robert A. Blair; Christopher Blattman; Oeindrila Dube; Matthew Gudgeon; Richard Merton Peck
  15. Earnings gaps among higher-educated workers withinmain cities insemi-industrializedandnewly industrialized Asian countries By Mamiko Takeuchi
  16. "Disability and Poverty: Landmine Amputees in Cambodia" By Yoshito Takasaki
  17. Women in land struggles: The implications of female activism and emotional resistance for gender equity By Hennings, Anne
  18. Debauchery and Original Sin: The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt By Charles Engel; Jungjae Park
  19. L’internationalisation des marchés en productions animales By Chatellier, Vincent
  20. Setting the Stage for RMB Internationalisation - Liberalizing the Capital Account and Strengthening the Domestic Bond Market By Michel Aglietta; Camille Macaire
  21. Fiscal Implications of Rohingya Crisis for Bangladesh By Fahmida Khatun; Md Kamruzzaman
  22. Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets By John T. Saunders; Marcel Adenauer; Jonathan Brooks

  1. By: Kopp, Thomas; Dalheimer, Bernhard; Alamsyah, Zulkifli; Yanita, Mirawati; Brümmer, Bernhard
    Abstract: Abstract: In contrast to the trend of a generally increasing liberalization of markets, agriculture remains one of the most protected sectors. In globally distributed production networks the effects of sector specific policies may spill over to other sectors and other countries. While the effects of these policy spill-overs are likely to be substantial, both conceptual and empirical work is surprisingly limited in the literature. This paper suggests an extension of the Gardner Model by two policy interventions to theoretically predict effects of exogenous policy shocks in one input market on price relations towards its substitutes. The economic model is then applied to the markets for natural and synthetic rubber which is an insightful example because the natural rubber market has been dominated by three big exporters who have collectively introduced policies to gain price control for decades. Results of a vector error correction analysis indicate that prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber and crude oil are cointegrated. Both policies under consideration {an export tax and several measures to restrict supply} partly detached the natural from the synthetic rubber price in international markets. However, one of the policy measures might have produced effects detrimental to the intended targets.
    Keywords: Price Transmission Analysis,VECM,Tripartite Rubber Council,Indonesia,Thailand,Malaysia,Policy Interventions
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Chakraborty, Lekha (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: This paper assesses gender budgeting in Asia Pacific region. The countries in the region have achieved mixed success in improving gender equality, with "missing women" in India and China still reaching catastrophic dimensions. Gender budgeting is ideally a fiscal innovation that translates gender-related goals into budgetary commitments and can help countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with regard to gender equality. India has a sustainable gender budgeting model for the region, while a few countries in the region have begun such efforts more recently. The legislative mandates for gender budgeting in the Philippines and South Korea are remarkable achievements and are contributing to their efforts.
    Keywords: Gender Budgeting ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Financial Management ; Asia Pacifi ; Gender Inequalities
    Date: 2019–07
  3. By: Cao Chenrui
    Abstract: Human resource mobility is an essential feature of today’s globalized world where integrated world markets, networks and technologies are all contributing to the increasing movement of labor, students, professionals, and families. Governments on both sides of the migration chain increasingly recognize the value of the diaspora’s voluntary engagement with their countries of origin and are seeking ways to optimize this engagement. The question facing policy-makers is not so much whether the diaspora can benefit their countries of origin, but what kind of government policies and programmes’ can foster and promote these relationships. Diasporas are not only key drivers in development efforts but also in strengthening bilateral relations between host and home nations. In the contemporary globalized world, the diasporas have emerged as a powerful factor in developing relations between the nation-states. Notably, the Indian diaspora has acted as a catalyst in strengthening bilateral relations between India and the host nations. The India-US Civil Nuclear Deal is a case in point, as Indian diasporas in the United States successfully lobbied for clinching of the nuclear deal. Indian Diaspora is one of the largest in the world and it has considerable soft power credentials for the Indian Foreign Policy effecting trade and business relations. The South East Asian region has a plethora of economic avenues for investors from across the globe. It has become vital for India to build a favorable rapport with this region. The Indian presence in Southeast Asia is set deep down in history. There are innumerable accounts of traders, preachers and adventures who ventured into the high seas and influenced the eastern part of the world, to the extent of ‘Indianising’ it socially, culturally, religiously, and in many other ways. However, it was during the colonial period that government sponsored migrations in the form of labourers, officials and service providers started, which later resulted into permanent settlements. The diasporic consciousness emerged as the settlers became integral part of economic and political lives of receiving societies, while continuing to be connected with the motherland. More recently, the migration of skilled and highly skilled professionals and entrepreneurs and India’s opening towards Southeast Asia has given a new face and identity to the Indian communities in the region. Hence, this paper is an attempt to analyze the impact of India’s diaspora policy with regard to Indian diaspora in Southeast Asia. It seeks to examine how effectively India can utilize its diaspora as a foreign policy tool to exert its influence in the South East Asia. Key Words:diaspora, Indian diaspora, foreign policy, south east asia Policy
    Date: 2018–03
  4. By: Merry Christ E. Manayaga; Roel F. Ceballos
    Abstract: This study aims to find a Box-Jenkins time series model for the monthly OFW's remittance in the Philippines. Forecasts of OFW's remittance for the years 2018 and 2019 will be generated using the appropriate time series model. The data were retrieved from the official website of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. There are 108 observations, 96 of which were used in model building and the remaining 12 observations were used in forecast evaluation. ACF and PACF were used to examine the stationarity of the series. Augmented Dickey Fuller test was used to confirm the stationarity of the series. The data was found to have a seasonal component, thus, seasonality has been considered in the final model which is SARIMA (2,1,0)x(0,0,2)_12. There are no significant spikes in the ACF and PACF of residuals of the final model and the L-jung Box Q* test confirms further that the residuals of the model are uncorrelated. Also, based on the result of the Shapiro-Wilk test for the forecast errors, the forecast errors can be considered a Gaussian white noise. Considering the results of diagnostic checking and forecast evaluation, SARIMA (2,1,0)x(0,0,2)_12 is an appropriate model for the series. All necessary computations were done using the R statistical software.
    Date: 2019–06
  5. By: Soyoung Kim (Seoul National University); Aaron Mehrotra (Bank for International Settlements)
    Abstract: We examine the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in the Asia-Pacific region, where many inflation targeting economies have adopted macroprudential policies in order to safeguard financial stability. Using structural panel vector autoregressions that identify both monetary and macroprudential policy actions, we show that tighter macroprudential policies used to contain credit growth have also had a significant negative impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as real GDP and the price level. The similar effects of monetary and macroprudential policies may suggest a complementary use of the two policies at normal times. However, they could also create challenges for policymakers, especially during times when low inflation coincides with buoyant credit growth.
    Keywords: financial stability; price stability; macroprudential policy; monetary policy; panel VAR
    JEL: E58 E61
  6. By: Laura Alfaro; Alejandro Cunat; Harald Fadinger; Yanping Liu
    Abstract: We evaluate manufacturing firms’ responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts: In export-oriented emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with faster growth of firm-level productivity, higher sales and cash-flow, and higher probabilities to engage in R&D and export. We find negative effects for firms in other emerging economies, which are relatively more import dependent, and no significant effects for firms in industrialized economies. Motivated by these facts, we build a dynamic model in which real depreciations raise the cost of importing intermediates, affect demand, borrowing constraints and the profitability of engaging in innovation (R&D).We decompose the effects of RER changes on productivity growth across regions into these channels. We estimate the model and quantitatively evaluate the different mechanisms by providing counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements and conduct several robustness analyses. Effects on physical TFP growth, while different across regions, are non-linear and asymmetric.
    Keywords: real exchange rate, innovation, productivity, exporting, importing, financial constraints, firm-level data
    JEL: F O
    Date: 2019–05
  7. By: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong); XingWang Qian (SUNY Buffalo State); Eli Remolona (Williams College)
    Abstract: To explain why Asian countries seem to have been hoarding international reserves, especially since the 1997 crisis, we consider various regional neighborhood effects. One such effect is that of “catching up with the Joneses” as documented by Cheung and Qian (2009). We revisit that effect by analyzing several refinements of it. We also consider the fear of the kind of contagion that the crisis-hit countries saw in 1997. Finally, we look at the possibility of a regional financial cycle, in which the conditions that led to the crisis might have been correlated across countries. We find that refining the Joneses effect to take account of trade links strengthens its power to explain the build-up of reserves. We also observe that a country that finds itself more vulnerable than its regional neighbors would tend to accumulate more reserves. Finally, we find that a common regional factor related to current-account balances spurs further reserve accumulation. Contrary to previous analyses, our results suggest that only a couple of Asian countries have been holding excessive reserves. Some were actually holding less reserves than would be optimal in the presence of neighborhood effects.
    Keywords: International reserves, Joneses, neighborhood effects, contagion, financial cycle
    JEL: F3 F4
  8. By: Yuki Higuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University); Nobuhiko Fuwa (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo); Kei Kajisa (School of International Politics, Economics and Communication, Aoyama Gakuin University); Takahiro Sato (Faculty of Agriculture and Life Science, Hirosaki University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: Aid from local governments can play a critical role as a risk-coping device in a postdisaster situation if the recipients have been properly targeted. Combining (i) satellite images (objective information on flood damage), (ii) administrative records (objective information on aid receipt), and (iii) sui generis survey data (self-reported information on damage assessment and aid receipt) on a large-scale flooding in the Philippines, we analyze the accuracy of disaster aid targeting and self-reporting bias in flood damage and aid receipt. We find that damage is over-reported while aid receipt is under-reported, and as a result, the estimated targeting accuracy based on self-reported information is substantially downward-biased.
    Date: 2018–12
  9. By: Yuki Higuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University); Nobuhiko Fuwa (Graduate School of Public Policy, The University of Tokyo); Kei Kajisa (School of International Politics, Economics and Communication, Aoyama Gakuin University); Takahiro Sato (Faculty of Agriculture and Life Science, Hirosaki University); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: Aid from local governments can play a critical role as a risk-coping device in a postdisaster situation if the recipients have been properly targeted. Combining (i) satellite images (objective information on flood damage), (ii) administrative records (objective information on aid receipt), and (iii) sui generis survey data (self-reported information on damage assessment and aid receipt) on a large-scale flooding in the Philippines, we analyze the accuracy of disaster aid targeting and self-reporting bias in flood damage and aid receipt. We find that damage is over-reported while aid receipt is under-reported, and as a result, the estimated targeting accuracy based on self-reported information is substantially downward-biased.
    Date: 2018–12
  10. By: Sven Steinkamp (Osnabrueck University); Frank Westermann (Osnabrueck University)
    Abstract: Occasional crises have been shown to be part of growth enhancing mechanism (see Rancière, Tornell and Westermann, 2008). In this paper, we document that neither the stereotypical case study of India vs. Thailand, nor the benchmark growth-regression in this earlier research support this result anymore when updating the sample by one decade that includes the Global Financial Crisis, 2007/8. We analyze the time-varying nature of this relationship in rolling regressions and an historical dataset. In the subset of countries with enforceability problems, we find that the link between occasional crisis, measured by the negative skewness of credit growth, and per-capita output growth still remains intact.
    Keywords: Long-Term Growth; Systemic Crisis; Financial Liberalization
    JEL: F34 O43 G01
  11. By: Niken Kusumawardhani; Daniel Suryadarma; Luca Tiberti; Veto Tyas
    Abstract: The abundance of small enterprises in developing countries has led to debates regarding the role that of entrepreneurial skill in business performance. Analyses of the skills and characteristics important for success can inform entrepreneurship training programs or educational curricula designed to increase the number of successful entrepreneurs. We addressed these issues in the context of Indonesia, a low-middle-income country in which almost half of workers are self-employed. After developing a conceptual framework linking fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, and educational attainment, we estimated the effect of these different types of intelligence on the profit and value of non-farm-household businesses. We found that fluid intelligence had sizeable and positive returns on business. On the other hand, crystallized intelligence had a positive and large effect only in sectors that required intense concentration or computers. Some heterogeneous effects regarding business size were also found. Our results were robust when we controlled for possible selection into non- farm entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: cognitive skills, human capital, entrepreneurship, household firm, farm business, non-farm business
    JEL: J24 O15 L26
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Immaculate Machasio (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Germany); Peter Tillmann (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Germany)
    Abstract: Remittance inflows from overseas workers are an important source of for- eign funding for developing and emerging economies. The literature is in- conclusive about the cyclical nature of remittance inflows. To the extent remittances are procyclical they pose a challenge to monetary policy: a tight- ening of policy will be less effective if at the same time remittances increase strongly. The same is true for a policy easing under exceptionally weak remit- tance inflows. This paper estimates a series of nonlinear (smooth-transition) local projections to study the effectiveness of monetary policy under differ- ent remittance inflows regimes. The model is able to provide state-dependent impulse response functions. We show that for Kenya, Mexico, Colombia and the Philippines monetary policy indeed has a smaller domestic effect under strong inflows of remittances. These results have important implications for the design of inflation targeting in developing countries.
    Keywords: Remittance inflows, monetary policy, inflation targeting, smooth- transition model, local projections
    JEL: E52 E32 O16
  13. By: Lejour, Arjan (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Mohlmann, Jan; van't Riet, Maarten; Benschop, Thijs
    Abstract: This paper uses the financial statements of special purpose entities (SPEs) for explaining the origin and destination of dividend, interest, and royalty flows passing the Netherlands. We find that Bermuda is the most important destination for royalty flows. These flows come from Ireland, Singapore and the United States. For dividend and interest payments the geographical pattern is more widespread. We find a substantial tax reduction for royalties by using Dutch SPEs compared to a direct flow between the origin and destination country. However, we cannot find such tax savings for dividends and interest with an approximation based on statutory tax rates. When controlling for country characteristics in our regression analysis we do find that tax differentials partially explain the geographical patterns of income flows diverted through the Netherlands. This is the case for the likelihood that a route is used, as well as for the size of the flows. This paper is one of the first using bilateral income flows as dependent variables instead of bilateral FDI stocks or flows.
    Keywords: corporate taxation; international tax planning; treaty shopping; bilateral dividend flows; bilateral interest flows; bilateral royalty flows
    JEL: G32 H25 H32
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Samuel Bazzi; Robert A. Blair; Christopher Blattman; Oeindrila Dube; Matthew Gudgeon; Richard Merton Peck
    Abstract: Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best. Rich socio-economic data also substitute well for these histories. Even with such unusually rich data, however, the models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. "Best case" scenarios with panel data fall short of workable early-warning systems.
    JEL: C52 C53 D74
    Date: 2019–06
  15. By: Mamiko Takeuchi (Kyushu University,)
    Abstract: This paper comparatively analyzes determinants of earningsand the gender earningsgapamong higher-educated workers in nine maincities inseven semi-industrializedandnewlyindustrializedAsian countries. Theanalysisfocuses on effects of specific qualificationsor skillsbeyonda bachelor fsdegree; such as a postgraduate degree, specific field of degree, or experience working or studying abroad. The results show some such attributespositivelyaffectearnings, although thesevaried by cityand gender.Adecomposition analysis also revealsthere isno gender gap among higher-educated workers in Delhi and Mumbai, whereas endowment or coefficient effects ongender gaps are detectedin othercities.
    Keywords: Asian countries, Higher-educated workers, Specific abilities, Comparative analysis, Genderearningsgap
    JEL: J24 J71
    Date: 2019–04
  16. By: Yoshito Takasaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of disability on poverty in rural Cambodia. I combine a natural experiment and spatial blocking. First, I focus on amputation among adults due to landmines, which is free from measurement errors and the onset of which is an exogenous shock. Second, I conduct an original survey stratified by disability status within villages, where people have shared the same local vulnerability to landmine accidents. This research design enables a matching analysis within small geographic areas, treating demographic factors, such as household formation and fertility, as endogenous. Amputation greatly reduces consumption and income, but not subjective well-being (i.e., adaptation), increasing poverty and augmenting its magnitude, especially among the poorest of the poor. Disability triggers a vicious circle of low labor productivity, low earnings, and low accumulation of productive assets and social capital. This productivity-cum-asset channel also leads to adverse intergenerational effects on child schooling and labor.
    Date: 2019–04
  17. By: Hennings, Anne
    Abstract: Despite deeply engrained images of female domesticity and conventional gender norms, women are increasingly joining land struggles in Cambodia. Based on extensive ethnographic fieldwork, my findings suggest that land rights activism in Cambodia has undergone a gendered re-framing process. Reasoning that women tend to use non-violent means of contestation and are less prone to violent responses from security personnel, nongovernmental organizations push women affected by land grabs and eviction to the frontline of protests. Moreover, female activists are encouraged to publicly display emotions such as sorrow and pain, in sharp contrast with the notion of feminine modesty. I critically question the women-to-the-front strategy and, drawing on Sara Ahmed's politics of emotions, show the adverse risks for female activists. Following that, I argue that the instrumentalization of female bodies and emotions in land rights protests perpetuates gender disparities instead of strengthening female agency in Cambodian society or opening up political space for women.
    Keywords: dispossession,land grabbing,gendered reistance,politics of emotion,Cambodia,Enteignung,Landraub,geschlechtsspezifischer Aktivismus,Politik der Emotionen,Kambodscha
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Jungjae Park (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: This study quantitatively investigates the currency composition of sovereign debt in the presence of two types of limited enforcement frictions arising from a government’s monetary and debt policy: strategic currency debasement and default on sovereign debt. Local currency debt obligations are state contingent in that the real value can be changed by a government’s monetary policy. It thus acts as a better consumption hedge against income shocks than foreign currency debt. However, this higher degree of state contingency for local currency debt provides a government with more temptation to deviate from disciplined monetary policy, thus restricting borrowing in local currency more than in foreign currency. The two financial frictions related to the two limited enforcement problems combine to generate an endogenous debt frontier for local and foreign currency debts. Our model predicts that a less disciplined country in terms of monetary policy borrows mainly in foreign currency, as the country faces a much tighter borrowing limit for local currency debt than for the foreign currency debt. Our model accounts for the surge in local currency borrowings by emerging economies in the recent decade and the “Mystery of Original Sin”. An important extension demonstrates that in the presence of an expectational Phillips curve, local currency debt improves the ability of monetary policymakers to commit.
    JEL: E32 E44 F34
  19. By: Chatellier, Vincent
    Abstract: Animal production accounts for 16% of international agri-food trade. The growing imbalance between supply and demand for animal products in Asian countries, where consumption is growing, particularly in China, stimulates trade for the benefit of the major exporting countries: the European Union (EU), the United States, New Zealand, Brazil and Australia. While this development offers trade opportunities for countries with a structural surplus, purchases fluctuate from year to year and price competition is very strong, despite the qualitative requirements of some countries. The EU, which has a positive trade balance in dairy products and pork, but a negative one (in monetary terms) in beef and poultry meat, is the world's largest exporter of animal products (with 22% of the extra-EU trade in 2016). This article analyses the evolution of trade in animal products using customs statistics data (BACI and COMEXT) from 2000 to 2016. It presents the evolution of international trade for different types of goods (dairy products, beef, pork, poultry meat) and highlights the trade trajectories (patterns) of the main net importing countries (China, Japan and Russia) and net exporting countries (India, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, the United States and the EU).
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2019
  20. By: Michel Aglietta; Camille Macaire
    Abstract: Internationalizing the Renminbi pertains to the new era of China’s reform, starting at the 19th Congress of the Communist Party. It is not a technical reform, but a political one. The objective is threefold: to match China’s autonomy in economic policy, to further Asian integration, and to safeguard worldwide multilateralism against by the rise of protectionist forces. The challenge has been aggravated by the protectionist policies pursued by the US, degrading ipso facto the functions assumed by the dollar in the international payment system. China’s authorities have drawn lessons from the Asian crisis of 1997-98 and the systemic crisis of 2008-09. They are now searching for a second-best option in advocating a multilateral international payment system based on the SDR. The process of currency internationalization is linked to the modernization of domestic capital markets. Studying the progress in both dimensions makes the first two parts of the paper We ask the following questions. In the first part: which steps has China taken, and should take in the future, to complete the gradual process of currency internationalization currently under way? In the second part: how can China build the deep and resilient bond market required to attract international investors? A shorter third part examines why emerging market countries are incentivized to issue their government debt in their own currencies to attract foreign investors in the lingering context of ultra-low interest rates in the main convertible currencies. The status of a freely usable currency, already reached by the Renminbi in its prudent internationalization, together with a reform of the huge domestic bond market, should make China able to attract foreign saving. This is compatible with the Belt and Road Initiative, which is bound to mobilize massive capital exports in the form of long-term loans.
    Keywords: China;Bond Markets;Local Governments;RMB Internationalization;International Monetary System
    JEL: F36 G15 G18 H70 H74
    Date: 2019–06
  21. By: Fahmida Khatun; Md Kamruzzaman
    Abstract: The study presents some preliminary observations on economic and social impact of recent Rohingya influx to Bangladesh, based on field-level investigations. It also makes estimations on resource requirements for hosting Rohingyas under various scenarios. According to the study, required fund for Rohingya population amounts to USD 1,211 million in fiscal year 2018-19. Assuming that 300 Rohingyas will be repatriated per day from January 2019, and there are no increases in population growth and inflation rates, the required repatriation time will be 11 years. Assuming that 300 Rohingyas are repatriated per day, and population growth and inflation rates will follow the existing trend, repatriation will take 12 years. If 100 Rohingyas are repatriated per day, and population growth and inflation rates are taken into consideration, total repatriation period will be 42 years. Resource requirements in the above mentioned scenarios will be USD 6,348 million, USD 9,197 million and USD 75,011 million, respectively. A fourth scenario, where there is no repatriation, and changes in population growth and inflation rates are included, the cost of hosting the Rohingya people during the first five years will stand to USD 7,046 million.
    Keywords: Fahmida Khatun, Md Kamruzzaman, CPD, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Rohingya, Fiscal implication, Population growth, Inflation rates, Repatriation
    Date: 2018–10
  22. By: John T. Saunders (Lincoln University); Marcel Adenauer (OECD); Jonathan Brooks (OECD)
    Abstract: The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand.
    Keywords: agricultural prices, agricultural productivity, climate change, food security, long-run analysis, partial equilibrium, total factor productivity, trade modelling
    JEL: C6 C69 F1
    Date: 2019–07–10

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