nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2019‒06‒24
35 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Asia’s third giant: A survey of the Indonesian economy By Hal Hill
  2. Assimilation of rural-urban migrants under a less restrictive internal migration policy: Evidence from Indonesia By Rus’an Nasrudin; Budy P. Resosudarmo
  3. Global production networks and the evolution of industrial capabilities: Does production sharing warp the Product Space? By Russell Thomson; Prema-chandra Athukorala
  4. Domestic value added, exports and employment: An input-output analysis of Indonesian manufacturing By Prema-chandra Athukorala; Arianto A. Patunru
  5. Economic development in post-war Thailand By Peter Warr
  6. Does export performance improve firm performance? Evidence from Indonesia By Deasy Pane; Arianto A. Patunru
  7. The Effect of Social Interactions on Exporting Activities: Evidence from Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises in rural Vietnam By SHIMAMOTO Daichi; Yu Ri KIM; TODO Yasuyuki
  8. From School to Work: Does Vocational Education Improve Labour Market Outcomes? An Empirical Analysis of Indonesia By Dyah Pritadrajati
  9. Land consolidation as technical change: impacts on-farm and off-farm in rural Vietnam By Huy Quynh Nguyen; Peter Warr
  10. The impact of mayor-council coalitions on local government spending, service delivery, and corruption in Indonesia By Blane D. Lewis; Adrianus Hendrawan
  11. Does income or house price lead in the public housing market? a case study of Singapore’s public housing sector. By Razak, Nursakina; Masih, Mansur
  12. The lead lag relationship between oil prices and exchange rate in an oil importing country: evidence fromThailand using ARDL By Tayeb, Hamza; Masih, Mansur
  13. Digitalization and the performance of micro and small enterprises in Yogyakarta, Indonesia By Anna T. Falentina; Budy P. Resosudarmo; Danang Darmawan; Eny Sulistyaningrum
  14. Philippine (Metro Manila) Case Study on Municipal Financing By Justine Diokno-Sicat
  15. Policy failure and educational attainment in Indonesia By Blane D. Lewis; Hieu T. M. Nguyen
  16. Structural transformation in Asia-Pacific small island developing States By Yusuke Tateno; Andrzej Bolesta
  17. Older and wiser? The impact of school starting age on teenage marriage and motherhood in Vietnam By Hieu T. M. Nguyen; Blane D. Lewis
  18. The impact of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia By Blane D. Lewis
  19. Globalization and Obesity: Asian Experiences of ‘Globesity’ By Ghosh, sudeshna
  20. The Impact of Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries By Bakari, Sayef; Sofien, Tiba
  21. Time-Varying Exchange Rate Risk Premium By D.M.Nguyen, Anh; Dai Hung, Ly
  22. Industrial policy for structural transformation to reduce poverty in LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS By Andrzej Bolesta
  23. Hoarding for Stormy Days - Test of International Reserves Providing Financial Buffer Services By Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak
  24. Structural transformation, backward and forward linkages and job creation in Asia-Pacific least developed countries By Yusuke Tateno; Nyingtob Pema Norbu; Andrzej Bolesta
  25. The Human-Centred Business Model and Hybrid Business Forms: A Primer and a Roadmap By Diletta Lenzi; Andrea Zorzi
  26. Tapping Capital Markets and Institutional Investors for Infrastructure Development By Mathieu Verougstraete; Alper Aras
  27. Poverty and inequality impact of natural disasters: Myanmar, 2005 to 2010 By Peter Warr; Lwin Lwin Aung
  28. Structural transformation in Asia's landlocked developing countries By Andrzej Bolesta
  29. Exporting and Pollution Abatement Expenditure: Evidence from Firm-Level Data By Soumendra N. Banerjee; Jayjit Roy; Mahmut Yasar
  30. How do Housing Returns in Emerging Countries Respond to Oil Shocks? A MIDAS Touch By Afees A. Salisu; Rangan Gupta
  31. New Zealand; Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund
  32. Incentives to Persevere By Elif Incekara-Hafalir; Grace HY Lee; Audrey KL Siah; Erte Xiao
  33. Global Value Chains and Domestic Innovation By ITO Keiko; IKEUCHI Kenta; Chiara CRISCUOLO; Jonathan TIMMIS; Antonin BERGEAUD
  34. Eurasia Integration Index By Gharleghi, Behrooz
  35. Biofuel versus protein policies: what best strategy for self-sufficiency and climate mitigation in the EU? By Sasu-Boakye, Yaw; Valin, Hugo; Wirsenius, Stefan; Havlik, Petr; Hedenus, Fredrik; Frank, Stefan; Herrero, Mario

  1. By: Hal Hill
    Abstract: This paper surveys the Indonesian economy and the drivers of socio-economic development over the past half-century. It highlights the country’s rapid economic development in the face of unfavourable ‘initial conditions’. We examine episodes in economic development, in particular comparing and contrasting the two main sub-periods, of high economic growth during the authoritarian Soeharto era, 1966-98, and moderate economic growth during the democratic era since 1999. The paper emphasizes the importance of sound macroeconomic management, economic openness, inclusive social progress and institutional development. For all the challenges that Indonesia faces, and its unfinished reform agenda, the major conclusion is one of development success, broadly defined.
    Keywords: Indonesia, economic development, Asian economies, policy reform
    JEL: N15 O11 O53
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Rus’an Nasrudin; Budy P. Resosudarmo
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on how a relatively open internal migration policy can influence migrant assimilation outcomes. We revisit the findings of previous studies on international labour migration in developing countries by investigating the economic consequences of moving people from rural areas to four Indonesian cities in which international migration is relatively free. The empirical investigation uses cross-sectional and individual-level panel data techniques. The results suggest that Indonesian migrants do not experience earnings penalties following their arrival in urban areas but have persistently higher earnings than their urban non-migrant counterparts. However, the higher earnings are accompanied by a worrying decline in migrant mental health. The finding of persistently higher earnings contrasts with the results of studies in countries such as China and Vietnam, which have more restrictive policies for rural–urban migration. We argue that economic assimilation can be highly successful in developing economies if the internal migration regime is relatively open, yet it creates an adverse mental health consequence.
    Keywords: Indonesia, rural–urban migration, migration policy, mental health of internal migrants
    JEL: O15 R23 R28
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Russell Thomson; Prema-chandra Athukorala
    Abstract: Do production capabilities of countries evolve from existing capabilities or emerge de novo? The Product Space approach developed by Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabási & Hausmann (2007) postulates that a country’s existing industrial structure largely determines its opportunities for industrial upgrading. However, this is difficult to reconcile with the export dynamism of many developing countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Costa Rica and Vietnam that transformed from primary commodity dependence to exporters of dynamic manufactured products. In each of these cases, global production sharing facilitated industrial transition. In this paper, we advance the Product Space approach to accommodate the role of global production sharing. Using a newly constructed multi-country dataset of manufacturing exports that distinguishes between trade within global production networks and traditional horizontal trade, we find that that existing industrial structure has smaller impact, but trade openness has greater impact, on industrial upgrading within vertically integrated global industries.
    Keywords: industrialization, product space, global production sharing, fragmentation
    JEL: L60 O14 F14
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Prema-chandra Athukorala; Arianto A. Patunru
    Abstract: The paper is motivated by the current emphasis on the share of domestic value added in exports (SVEX) as a policy criterion for export development strategy in developing countries. Our hypothesis is that, the policy emphasis on SVAD, which harks back to the import substitution era, is not consistent with the objectives of achieving economic growth with employment generation in this era of economic globalisation. We test this hypothesis by examining relationship of SVEX with both export-induced employment and the total domestic value added (TVAD) or the contribution of exports to GDP by applying the standard input-output methodology to data from the Indonesian manufacturing. Our findings do not support the widely held view in policy circles that industries characterised by higher SVAD have the potential to make a greater contribution to employment generation and TVAD. The policy inference is that in this era of economic globalisation, in designing export development policy, policy makers should focus on the export potential of industries rather than on the share of domestic value added of exports
    Keywords: Indonesia, linkages, value added, global value chain, global production sharing
    JEL: F13 F14 O19
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Peter Warr
    Abstract: This paper discusses five aspects of Thailand’s economic performance since World War II: the changing rate of growth and its composition; the sources of that growth; the causes and consequences of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) of 1997-99, including the reason it originated in Thailand; the distribution among the Thai population of the fruits of long-term growth; and whether Thailand is caught in a middle-income trap. The evidence from Thailand demolishes the notion that economic growth fails to benefit the poor – provided ‘benefit’ is understood in absolute and not relative terms. It is argued that Thailand is now caught in a ‘middle-income trap’ caused by a backward and under-resourced educational system. Exit is possible, but requires a public commitment to overcoming the under-supply of human capital that a market-based economic system inherently produces and to raising the public revenue needed to finance higher levels of educational investment.
    Keywords: Thailand, economic growth, poverty incidence, inequality, human capital
    JEL: O10 O47 O53 N95
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Deasy Pane; Arianto A. Patunru
    Abstract: ‘Learning-by-exporting’ hypothesis suggests that once a firm enters a foreign market, its productivity will increase thanks to the exposure to new knowledge and experience abroad. We test this hypothesis using Indonesia’s firm level data from 2000 to 2012. The methodology involves scrutinizing the learning process of exporters by incorporating ‘export age’ – the number of years engaged in exporting activities – as an explanatory variable in the model. We find that exporter’s total factor productivity increases with export age, but not linearly. Furthermore, larger exporting firms and those in particular industries undergo a clearer learning process. However, even though export experience can boost productivity, it is only applicable for firms that have high productivity from the beginning, supporting the ‘self-selection’ hypothesis.
    Keywords: Indonesia, learning-by-exporting, Indonesia, export performance, productivity
    JEL: F12 F14 L23 L25
    Date: 2019
  7. By: SHIMAMOTO Daichi; Yu Ri KIM; TODO Yasuyuki
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of social interactions on exporting activities of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in traditional apparel and textile clusters in Vietnam. To deal with econometric issues due to the reflection problem of Manski and endogeneity of network formation, we apply the estimation method developed by Bramoullé et al. (2009). Specifically, we eliminate the sub-network fixed effects using within transformation and instrument the average share of exports among peers of the focal firm by attributes of its peers' peers. This method enables us to identify the effects of exporting activities of the focal firm's peers on its own exporting activities (the endogenous effect according to Manski) and the effect of its peers' attributes (the exogenous effect). We find that peers' export share has a negative and significant effect on own export share, suggesting that the negative competition effect surpasses the positive learning effect. We also find that firms are encouraged to export by their large peers, possibly because firms can obtain technology spillovers from large peers and thus can be productive enough to start exporting.
    Date: 2019–03
  8. By: Dyah Pritadrajati (Intern at the Macroeconomic and Financing for Development Division)
    Abstract: While vocational education is believed to provide students with the opportunity to learn specific-job relevant, empirical evidence on the impact of vocational education on labour market outcomes is far from conclusive. In order to reduce youth unemployment rate, the Indonesian government plans to increase the proportion of vocational schools in upper-secondary education, from 42 per cent today to 70 per cent by 2025. Using a rich longitudinal household survey for Indonesia, this paper analyses the effects of different school types on four labour market outcomes: labour force participation, risk of unemployment, job formality, and income. To correct for endogeneity bias, this paper uses multiple instrumental variables, including parents’ educational backgrounds and the proportion of each school type in the district to reflect the supply of each school type. The results suggest that public vocational education provides better prospects of labour outcomes for women, relative to public general schools. However, no such difference is found for men. Moreover, the results suggest that many vocational schools, especially private ones, perform poorly in terms of their graduate’s job formality and income. For vocational education to truly improve labour market prospects for youth, greater attention needs to be paid to quality assurance as well as change in hiring practice.
    Keywords: vocational education, general education, upper-secondary school, labour market outcomes
    Date: 2018–12
  9. By: Huy Quynh Nguyen; Peter Warr
    Abstract: This paper studies whether land consolidation – reduction of land fragmentation – promotes or hinders the Vietnamese government’s policy objectives of encouraging agricultural mechanization and stimulation of the off-farm rural economy. It does this by viewing land consolidation as a form of technical change, making it possible to apply the insights developed in the economic literature on technical change. This treatment reveals that the impacts of land consolidation depend partly on its factor bias and partly on the degree to which labor is substitutable in production for other factors. At a theoretical level, if a technical change is factor neutral, it will reduce off-farm labor supply and slow rural structural transformation away from agriculture; if it is labor-augmenting and the elasticity of substitution between factors is low enough, the opposite effects are predicted. The paper studies these issues empirically for rice production in Vietnam, focusing on the impact that consolidation of rice land has on rice production, machinery use, and labor allocation. The findings confirm that land consolidation raises both farm productivity and farm income and stimulates increased machinery use. It also reduces farm labor supply, lowers labor intensity in farming, and thereby releases more farm labor to off-farm development, consistent with government policy objectives. Based on these findings, the paper concludes that land consolidation should be encouraged through development of land ownership rights and the promotion of land rental markets.
    Keywords: Land consolidation, factor-biased technical change, rural diversification, machinery use
    JEL: Q15 N65 O13
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Blane D. Lewis; Adrianus Hendrawan
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of majority coalitions on local government spending, service delivery, and corruption in Indonesia. The investigation finds that majority coalitions, i.e. those coalitions for which participating political parties control greater than half of council seats, cause a shift in local government spending towards health sector activities and induce improvements in citizen health service access—but only for a year or two, after which the positive effects disappear. The study shows that budget fraud starts to become problematic in the last two years of the coalition’s life. Majority coalition support for the local health spending and service agenda dissipates quickly as attention turns to corrupting the budget, via increased infrastructure outlays and associated rent-seeking. We hypothesize that budget fraud serves, in part, to finance subsequent rounds of local parliamentary and executive elections.
    Keywords: majority coalitions, local government spending and service delivery, corruption, regression discontinuity, Indonesia
    JEL: H72 H75 H76
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Razak, Nursakina; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to find the Granger-causal relationship between house price and income. Singapore is taken as a case study and standard time-series approach is employed. The outcome of this relationship will determine the lead-lag relation between house price and income which will then provide some policy implications to tackle the rising housing price and income distribution as well as housing affordability in Singapore. However, the empirical findings based on the generalised VDC (forecast variance decompositions) tend to indicate that unemployment rate is the most lagging factor, while house price is the most leading variable followed by the income variable. This happens due to the probability that house price is controlled and determined by HDB (Housing Development Board), the government entity for public housing in Singapore. This has strong policy implications.
    Keywords: HDB, CPI, GDP, House price, cointegration, unemployment, Singapore
    JEL: C58 E44
    Date: 2018–06–28
  12. By: Tayeb, Hamza; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to explore the Granger-causal relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and inflation rates using Thailand as a case study. Discerning this relationship will help us understand the mechanics of the Thai economy and the factors contributing to its development. Standard time-series and ARDL methods were used to investigate this relation. The reason for choosing to apply both methods is that ARDL is a more robust technique than the standard time series technique. Also, ARDL helped us overcome a problem regarding the variables used in the study as we had a mix of I(0) and I(1) variables which is unacceptable under the standard time-series technique when cointegration of the variables is examined. Our empirical findings tend to indicate that there is a long run relationship existing between these variables and that the exchange rate appears to be the variable leading oil prices and inflation at least in the context of Thailand during the period under review. The results are reasonable and have strong policy implications.
    Keywords: Oil Price, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Thailand, cointegration, exogeneity, endogeneity
    JEL: C58 G15
    Date: 2018–06–30
  13. By: Anna T. Falentina; Budy P. Resosudarmo; Danang Darmawan; Eny Sulistyaningrum
    Abstract: The world is going digital. Little is known about how this digitalization affects the performance of micro and small enterprises, one of the major foundations of the economy in developing countries but with relatively low productivity. This paper examines the causal impact of internet utilization, as a part of digitalization, on enterprise performance. We conducted a field survey among micro and small enterprises in Yogyakarta, the densest micro and small enterprise population province in Indonesia. The identification strategy exploits the fact that the differences in geographic topography produce conceivably exogenous variations in the strength of cellular signal that micro and small enterprises in various areas can receive to connect to the internet. We find that internet utilization has enabled micro and small enterprises to engage in the digital economy and has improved labor productivity and exports.
    Keywords: digital technology, internet, micro and small enterprises, productivity, exports
    JEL: H54 L53 L96
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Justine Diokno-Sicat (Assistant Professor at the Cesar E.A. Virata School of Business, University of the Philippines (Diliman))
    Abstract: Strong economic growth and rapid urbanization in the Philippines in recent years has led to increased pressure on government to provide public infrastructure, goods and services. At the same, this economic expansion serves as an opportunity for the public sector to mobilize resources to accommodate and finance increased public services. This study aims to understand how public financing is carried out in Metropolitan (Metro) Manila by examining governance structures and institutional mandates in revenue mobilization. Metro Manila, also known as the National Capital Region (NCR), is the center of economic, political and educational power (Department of Trade and Industry n.d.) and is comprised of 16 cities and 1 municipality. These local government units (LGUs) have revenue raising and spending authority and autonomy as provided in the 1991 Local Government Code (LGC). At the same time these LGUs are under the jurisdiction of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA). This metropolitan governance structure is a public corporation that coordinates development plans, policies and reforms across all the member sub-national governments.
    Keywords: Economic growth, urbanization, public infrastructure, resource mobilization
    Date: 2019–03
  15. By: Blane D. Lewis; Hieu T. M. Nguyen
    Abstract: By the late 1980s, child completion of primary education was near universal in Indonesia. The country has since turned its attention to increasing access to secondary school. We examine the causal impact of two classic education policies on secondary school participation in Indonesia: compulsory schooling and spending mandates. We find that the country’s 1994 nine-year compulsory schooling initiative had no impact on child educational attainment. We also determine that Indonesia’s 2002 constitutionally-imposed education spending mandate has been ineffective in influencing secondary school enrolments. Both policies suffer from weak enforcement. Improved enforcement would be beneficial in the case of compulsory schooling. However, the major risk in the case of spending mandates is that government begins to enforce them more rigorously, as they are applied to additional sectors, thereby constraining the efficient delivery of education and other local public services.
    Keywords: education policy, compulsory schooling, spending mandates, regression discontinuity, dynamic panel data models, Indonesia
    JEL: I25 I28 H75 H77
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Yusuke Tateno (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP); Andrzej Bolesta (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP)
    Abstract: Asia-Pacific small island developing States (SIDS) face various challenges concerned with their structural economic transformation and indeed their overall development trajectory. The Asia-Pacific Countries with Special Needs Development Report: Structural Transformation and its Role in Reducing Poverty examines those development challenges and offers policy recommendations.
    Date: 2019–05
  17. By: Hieu T. M. Nguyen; Blane D. Lewis
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of school starting age on teenage marriage and motherhood in Vietnam, where the rates of both are rising rapidly. We exploit a discontinuity in the age at which children start school and use regression discontinuity methods to identify the causal effect of school starting age on premature marriage—a first in the literature—and early motherhood. We find that girls who start school earlier and who are therefore younger relative to their classmates are significantly more likely to marry and/or give birth in their teenage years. We argue that the negative effects of starting school early are transmitted through adverse peer influences. We also determine that school starting age impacts are heterogeneous across girl subgroups. The significant effects of school starting age are concentrated among teenage girls who are members of ethnic minorities, whose mothers have relatively less education, whose households are relatively poor, and/or who live in rural areas. Girls that fall into these subgroups are more likely to benefit from starting school later. Finally, we present some preliminary and suggestive evidence that participation in extracurricular activities may help mitigate negative school-based peer effects.
    Keywords: school starting age, teenage marriage, teenage motherhood, peer influences, regression discontinuity, Vietnam
    JEL: J12 J13 J16
    Date: 2018
  18. By: Blane D. Lewis
    Abstract: The extent to which pre-electoral coalitions (PECs) influence executive elections in presidential systems has not been subject to rigorous empirical study. This paper uses regression discontinuity methods to identify the causal effect of PEC size on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia. The study finds that mayoral candidates backed by PECs comprising political parties that control council seat shares exceeding first-round electoral vote thresholds are around 18-24 percentage points more likely to win those elections than their counterparts supported by smaller-sized PECs.
    Keywords: Pre-election coalitions, presidential systems, subnational elections
    JEL: C21 C31 D72
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Ghosh, sudeshna
    Abstract: This paper explores the ‘globesity’ hypothesis that is, it examines, the effect of globalization in its social and economic dimensions on the obesity of the nations. The study utilized a panel set of Asian countries dividing it into two groups based on the income classification. The annual time period of data series runs from 1985 to 2015. For the low and low middle income countries economic and social globalization positively affects obesity, implying the benefits of globalization leads to adverse impact on health. This is due to life style changes, availability of processed food and lack of public awareness. However, for the richer Asian nations globalization, particularly in its social dimension has negative impact on obesity. The study employs the Westerlund cointegrating techniques to investigate upon the long run causal association between obesity and globalization
    Keywords: Obesity; Health; KOF index; Social globalization; Economic globalization; Asia, Granger Causality.
    JEL: C1 I00
    Date: 2017–10–10
  20. By: Bakari, Sayef; Sofien, Tiba
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of openness, foreign investment inflows, and domestic investment on economic growth for the case of 24 Asian economies over the time span 2002-2017 through the use of the fixed and random effect models. Our empirical results pointed out that domestic investment positively influences economic growth. However, we found that foreign direct investment and exports are negatively affecting the growth path. Also, the population, imports, and final consumption expenditure have no real impact on economic growth. Due to the importance of the positive externalities linked to the trade openness and foreign direct investments inflow, in terms of technology transfer bias, financial capacities, human expertise, large markets size, and spillover effect added to the domestic capacities and the national investment, the pace of the phenomenal economic performance of the Asian economies is very well justified.
    Keywords: Trade openness, FDI, Domestic Investment, Economic Growth.
    JEL: E22 F14 F15 O16 O47 O53
    Date: 2019–01
  21. By: D.M.Nguyen, Anh; Dai Hung, Ly
    Abstract: We characterize the exchange rate risk premium on the context of a small open economy with controlled floating exchange rate regime. The data set includes 100 observations on case of Vietnam over 01/2011-04/2019. The risk premium is varying over time. And it is determined by output growth rate, inflation rate, foreign capital inflows and liquidity supply. As one application, the existence of time varying risk premium reduces the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention by forward contract.
    Keywords: Exchange Rate Premium, Foreign Exchange Intervention, Forward Contract
    JEL: F15 F36 F43
    Date: 2019–06
  22. By: Andrzej Bolesta (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP)
    Abstract: Industrial policy is once again becoming a favoured tool to address countries’ development challenges. As the Asia-Pacific Countries with Special Needs Development Report: Structural Transformation and its Role in Reducing Poverty1 highlights, industrial policy is particularly relevant for effective structural economic transformation in least developed countries (LDCs), landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS), a group collectively refered to as ‘countries with special needs’, and one that is characterised by various vulnerabilities and significant challenges to reduce poverty. Indeed, the report demonstrates that poverty cannot be reduced sustainably without productivity enhancing structural transformation. It also shows that structural transformation in Asia-Pacific LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS has been sluggish and thus the poverty reduction has been slow. Despite some evident successes, particularly in reducing extreme poverty, 2 out of 5 people still live for less than $3.20 a day in these economies, compared to 1 out of 15 among other developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
    Date: 2019–05
  23. By: Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak
    Abstract: This paper outlines a tractable cost-benefit analysis of the buffers stock financial services provided by international reserves, and applies it to 8 of the largest Emerging Markets (BRICS, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey) during 2000Q1-2019Q1. Efficient management of international reserves generates sizable benefits for countries characterized by hard-currency external debt. These benefits increase with the volatility of the real exchange rates and sovereign spreads. Counter-cyclical management of hoarding reserves in good times and selling them in bad times provides buffers stock financial services adding up to about 3% of GDP during our sample period.
    JEL: F31 F34 F41
    Date: 2019–05
  24. By: Yusuke Tateno (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP); Nyingtob Pema Norbu (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP); Andrzej Bolesta (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP)
    Abstract: Structural transformation can influence employment creation and poverty reduction through direct and indirect channels. For instance, productivity growth in one sector stimulates employment and wage growth in that sector. It can also impact other sectors through increased demand for labour with similar skill profiles. Higher output in one sector can further spillover to other sectors through increased input demand from other sectors through production linkages thereby increasing incomes. The benefit of such spillovers will be limited if the growing sector does not have strong backward and forward production linkages with other sectors. However, it is not clear whether Asia-Pacific LDCs have been able to harness the potential backward and forward linkages between sectors to the extent that productivity growth in one sector indirectly stimulates demand for goods and services of other sectors. For a country to fully benefit from such indirect impacts, structural transformation should be accompanied by strong backward and forward linkages.
    Date: 2019–05
  25. By: Diletta Lenzi; Andrea Zorzi
    Abstract: The paper was written as part of the preliminary research for the Human Centred Business Model Project, a project developed within the Global Forum on Law, Justice and Development and now supported by the OECD Development Centre. In a preliminary fashion, the paper skims the surface of ‘social’ businesses, in the broadest sense, around the world, identifying some general trends and commonalities and some differences. The paper covers jurisdictions from North and South America, Europe, Asia and Australia and describes the organisations that can be used to carry out social business.
    Keywords: corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, stakeholder value, social enterprise, benefit corporation, hybrid organization
    JEL: G30 G34 G38 K20 K22 L31 M14
    Date: 2019
  26. By: Mathieu Verougstraete (Former staff of the Macroeconomic and Financing for Development Division of United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Alper Aras (Former staff of the Macroeconomic and Financing for Development Division of United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: The paper studies the possibility of using capital markets to channel more resources for infrastructure development while mobilizing assets managed by institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies. To this end, the paper is structured as follows. First, it analyzes the level of capital market development in the region, and finds that markets are still at a nascent stage in many economies. Banks continue to dominate private financing in Asia and the Pacific. Second, it reviews the size of institutional investors in the region and suggests that prudential regulation might need to be adjusted to enable more infrastructure investments. Third, it highlights that different modalities are available to investors seeking infrastructure exposure and presents initiatives launched by different countries to support the development of infrastructure-related instruments. Fourth, the paper proposes a series of policy actions that governments could implement to further tap this source of financing. The paper concludes by proposing criteria to tailor the different options to each country’s circumstances.
    Keywords: capital markets, infrastructure development, institutional investors, financing, Asia and the Pacific
    JEL: G23 F21 G15
    Date: 2018–05
  27. By: Peter Warr; Lwin Lwin Aung
    Abstract: According to national household survey data for Myanmar, spanning the five-year interval 2005 to 2010, average real household consumption expenditures remained stagnant, but measured poverty incidence and inequality both declined significantly. The distribution of the economic pie shifted in favor of the poor while the overall size of the pie barely changed. This paper examines the possibility that the hitherto unexplained reduction in measured inequality was caused, at least partly, by a natural disaster, Tropical Cyclone Nargis, which devastated parts of Myanmar in May 2008. This hypothesis is supported by a recent historical study which argues that, globally, large reductions in inequality normally occur only through either man-made or natural disasters. The paper develops a method, based on regression analysis of household level data, for isolating the impact of an exogenous natural event like a cyclone. The estimated regression model is used to simulate a counterfactual distribution of expenditures in which, hypothetically, the cyclone did not occur. The estimated impact of the cyclone is the difference between the observed outcome, in which the cyclone happened, and this simulated, counterfactual outcome in which it did not. The findings indicate that the cyclone reduced inequality between regions of Myanmar, because the negatively affected regions were on average better-off than the unaffected regions, both before and after the cyclone. Within the affected regions the negative impact of the cyclone was largest in absolute terms among richer households, but as a proportion of household expenditures, these negative effects were larger among the poorer households. The cyclone therefore increased economic inequality within the affected regions. Overall measured inequality declined because the between-region reduction exceeded the within-region increase. The hypothesis that the cyclone caused the reduction in inequality is rejected.
    Keywords: Expenditure distribution, inequality, decomposition analysis, regression-based decompositions, Myanmar
    JEL: C12 C51 D31 D63
    Date: 2018
  28. By: Andrzej Bolesta (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP)
    Abstract: Asia’s landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) are a heterogeneous group that differ in various dimensions, including development needs. For instance, some countries have transformed from a centrally-planned, state-command model to a market based one; many are resource dependent and have very concentrated production structures; four of them belong to the group of least developed countries (LDCs). Asia-Pacific Countries with Special Needs Development Report: Structural Transformation and its Role in Reducing Poverty provides an in-depth analysis on policy options for LLDCs. It highlights that for resource-based economies the process must involve economic diversification away from extractive industries, as the natural resource dependence exposes them to external shocks and macroeconomic imbalances; in least developed landlocked countries a shift of employment from agriculture to manufacturing must take place to increase productivity and reduce poverty. Industrialization is of paramount importance as a thriving labour-intensive manufacturing base is best at generating productive employment. More productive employment means higher remuneration, which in turns means less poverty. In some particular cases, the shift from agriculture to services might indeed be the only direction possible, if factors such as small size of an economy, limit opportunities to develop a manufacturing base. In general, this process however should be discouraged, as it inhibits the creation of productive jobs and slows the pace of poverty reduction. This is because employment in the manufacturing sector can be several times more productive than in services, particularly informal services. Hence the shift towards manufacturing allows for greater reduction in poverty.
    Date: 2019–05
  29. By: Soumendra N. Banerjee; Jayjit Roy; Mahmut Yasar
    Abstract: The relevance of analyzing whether exporting rms engage in greater pollution abatement cannot be overemphasized. For instance, the question relates to the possibility of export promotion policies being environmentally benecial. In fact, the issue is especially relevant for developing countries typically characterized by ine/ective environmental regulation. However, despite the signicance of the topic, the extant literature examining the environmental consequences of rm-level trade is skewed toward developed countries. Moreover, the existing contributions rarely attend to concerns over non-random selection into exporting. Accordingly, we employ cross-sectional data across Indonesian rms as well as a number of novel identication strategies to assess the causal e/ect of exporting on abatement behavior. Two of the approaches are proposed by Millimet and Tchernis (2013), and entail either minimizing or correcting for endogeneity bias. The remaining methods, attributable to Lewbel (2012) and Klein and Vella (2009), rely on higher moments of the data to obtain exclusion restrictions. While we largely nd exporting to encourage pollution abatement, the estimated impacts are more pronounced after accounting for selection into exporting. Key Words: Exporting, Environment, Pollution Abatement, Instrumental Variables, Treatment Efects
    JEL: C26 F18 F23 Q4
    Date: 2019
  30. By: Afees A. Salisu (Department for Management of Science and Technology Development, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and Faculty of Business Administration, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: In this study, we utilize the recent oil shock data of Baumeister and Hamilton (2019) to analyze how housing returns in China, India and Russia respond to different oil shocks. Given the available data for the relevant variables, the MIDAS approach which helps circumvent aggregation problem in the estimation process is employed. We also extend the MIDAS framework to account for nonlinearities in the model. Expectedly, the housing returns of the countries considered respond differently to the variants of oil shocks. More specifically, we find that the housing returns of India and China which are net oil-importing countries do not seem to possess oil risk hedging characteristics albeit with the converse for Russia which is a major net oil-exporter. We also find that modeling with the MIDAS framework offers better predictability than other variants with uniform frequency.
    Keywords: Housing return, Oil shock, MIDAS regression, Nonlinearities, Forecasting
    JEL: C12 C22 Q41 Q47 R12 R31
    Date: 2019–06
  31. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: At the request of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and with the support of the IMF’s Asia & Pacific Department (APD), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) technical assistance (TA) mission visited Wellington, New Zealand during October 1–12, 2018.1 The mission’s main objectives were to assist the RBNZ to: (i) complete the central bank Standardized Report Form (SRF 1SR); (ii) review the source data and bridge table used to produce Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) Standardized Report Form (SRF 2SR);(iii) assist the RBNZ to produce additional historical data in the SRFs 1SR and 2SR for the past five years; (iv) review the available source data for the compilation the Other Financial Corporations (OFCs) Standardized Report Form (SRF 4SR); (v) prepare metadata for the central bank, ODC, and OFC surveys; and (vi) agree on a timetable for RBNZ’s SRF-reporting of its MFS.
    Date: 2019–06–14
  32. By: Elif Incekara-Hafalir (University of Technology Sydney); Grace HY Lee (Monash University (Malaysia)); Audrey KL Siah (Monash University (Malaysia)); Erte Xiao (Monash University)
    Abstract: Achieving success often requires persistent efforts. We study the effectiveness of two reward mechanisms, all-or-nothing and piece-rate, to incentivize full completion of repeated tasks over a period of time. Data from two randomized controlled trials show that the full completion rate under the all-or-nothing mechanism does not differ from that under the regular piece-rate mechanism. However, when given the choice between the all-or-nothing and piece-rate mechanisms in a third (self-select) treatment, a significant number of participants chose the all-or-nothing mechanism despite the risk. The overall full completion rate is significantly higher in the selfselect treatment than the piece-rate treatment. Our results highlight the importance of choice in incentivising persistent efforts.
    Keywords: Perseverance; incentives; self-control; field experiments
    JEL: C93 D91
    Date: 2019–06–04
  33. By: ITO Keiko; IKEUCHI Kenta; Chiara CRISCUOLO; Jonathan TIMMIS; Antonin BERGEAUD
    Abstract: This paper explores how changes in both position and participation in Global Value Chain networks affect firm innovation. The analysis combines matched patent-firm data for Japan with measures of GVC network centrality and GVC participation utilizing the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Tables for the period 1995 to 2011. We find that Japan's position in the GVCs has shifted from being at the core of Asian value chains towards the periphery relative to other countries in the network, i.e. becoming less "central". We use China's WTO accession as an instrumental variable for changes in Japanese centrality. Our analysis shows that increases in forward centrality – as a key supplier - tends to be positively associated with increasing firm patent applications. Firms in key hubs within GVCs, more specifically as key suppliers, appear to benefit from knowledge spillovers from various customers and downstream markets.
    Date: 2019–04
  34. By: Gharleghi, Behrooz
    Abstract: Economic integration is a process that aims to reduce barriers that exist in economic, social, and cultural affairs between countries. Integration in its current format has risen significantly since the 1980s, when several trade agreements were made to facilitate collaboration between developed and developing countries. However, there is a need to measure outcomes and understand the phenomena of integration in various respects besides the economic perspective. The idea of tighter economic integration in Eurasia is gaining attraction, largely based on the experiences of other regional economic integration projects, such as NAFTA, the EU, CEMAC, and ASEAN. The economic integration of Eurasian states has been an issue for policymakers over the last two decades. Efforts have been made to promote initiatives to integrate these countries through creating a custom union and facilitating labour and capital mobility, but so far there has not been any attempt to coordinate the monetary policies. The region of Eurasia which is going to be analysed in this project includes thirteen states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Therefore this research is trying to identify the level of integration among these economies.
    Keywords: Eurasia Integration Index, Institution, socio-culture
    JEL: E0 E5 O1
    Date: 2019–05–02
  35. By: Sasu-Boakye, Yaw; Valin, Hugo; Wirsenius, Stefan; Havlik, Petr; Hedenus, Fredrik; Frank, Stefan; Herrero, Mario
    Abstract: The European Parliament recently adopted a plan for a European strategy for the promotion of protein crops for food and feed. While the motivation is to reduce further deepening of the dependence on third-party imports, it is also anticipated that increased sourcing of protein feed from the EU will contribute to reduce deforestation and lower GHG emission footprint from EU livestock production. However, a significant part of the protein meals currently sourced from the EU is the result of a different policy, the Renewable Energy Directive, that promotes the use of vegetable oil for fossil fuel substitution in the EU transportation sector. This paper compares two different strategies to decrease reliance of the EU feed protein market to imports - direct support to oilseed production, and incorporation targets for biodiesel in transport. We assess GHG emission impacts of these scenarios using GLOBIOM, a partial equilibrium model of agriculture and land use, enriched with detailed representation of the oilseed supply chains. The results show that direct substitution of soybean feed with protein meal from rapeseed and sunflower decreases deforestation related GHG emissions even though increased demand for agricultural land contributes to higher GHG emissions from agricultural production. Direct substitution of soybean feed leads to net savings if the protein crops are sourced from Europe. However, when a demand for vegetable oil-based biofuel is introduced as the primary driver of feed substitution, the land-use emissions go in opposite direction, with net increase in overall GHG emissions, partly due to additional imports of palm oil from Southeast Asia. Therefore, a supply-oriented policy targeting domestic protein and oil crops appear environmentally preferable to sponsoring demand of vegetable oil for energy use, which shows the importance of connecting better the discussions on the Renewable Energy Directive and the European strategy for the promotion of protein crops for food and feed.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2019–05–29

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