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on South East Asia |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | For much of the past 25 years, Philippine general government investment has trailed that of most other Asian economies. The budgetary allocation to public investment in the Philippines declined from about 4 percent of GDP during the 1990s to about 3 percent of GDP from 2000 to 2015, but it has increased in the last few years. As a result, Philippine public capital stock remains low by emerging market standards, and its general government capital stock has eroded steadily from the early 1990s. The gap between the Philippines’ capital stock and the average of ASEAN countries is more than 30 percent. The average emerging market economies’ capital stock is almost 60 percentage points higher than that in the Philippines. |
| Date: | 2019–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/137&r=all |
| By: | Skorbiansky, Sharon Raszap; Childs, Nathan; Hansen, James |
| Abstract: | Historically, only humans—not livestock—consumed rice. Consequently, rice is considered a food grain and not a feed grain. However, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that in 2013 more than 33 million metric tons (mt) of rice were devoted to feed, with the amount growing by 0.5 million mt per year since 2003, an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. In several Asian countries, policies incentivized overplanting and boosted stocks, eventually leading governments to release rice from their stocks for feed use at a small fraction of the procurement cost. Thus far, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand have diverted rice into feed grain markets to reduce government stocks. China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of rice, has near-record rice stock levels, and policymakers there could follow a similar path. This report discusses policies and consumption changes that have led to the increased use of rice for feed. It also uses the USDA, Economic Research Service baseline model to simulate the effect on corn and rice markets if China were to divert rice into its feed market. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersmp:290025&r=all |
| By: | Fukao, Kyoji; Makino, Tatsuji; Settsu, Tokihiko |
| Abstract: | After the Meiji Restoration of 1868, Japan modernized its institutions and economic growth gradually picked up. Growth accelerated especially during the so-called high-speed growth era from 1955 to 1970, when Japan rapidly caught up with Western economies. The long-term sustained high-speed growth recorded during this period was unprecedented not only in Japan but worldwide. While other East Asian countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and China subsequently also experienced remarkable growth over a prolonged period, Japan’s place in history as the first country to record such sustained high-speed growth means that its experience continues to garner worldwide interest. Using newly constructed Hitotsubashi estimates of Japan’s historical GDP statistics and a growth accounting framework, we analyze the sources of Japan’s economic growth from 1885 to 1970 and try to answer why Japan was not able to accomplish such high-speed growth before 1955. Since until the mid-1960s the primary sector accounted for a large share of economic activity and was a major determinant of overall economic growth, we use a Hayashi and Prescott (2008) type two-sector model in which the economy overall is divided into the primary sector and the non-primary sector |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:693&r=all |
| By: | Stephen Oluwatobi (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria); Isaiah Olurinola (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria); Philip Alege (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria); Adeyemi Ogundipe (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | The experience of South Korea, India, China and Singapore reveals that developing economies can fasttrack development, leapfrog the stages of development and catch up with advanced economies by putting knowledge capital as the driver of development. If the knowledge economy is therefore an accelerant of development for both advanced and developing economies, it is possible for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies to also catch up with advanced economies. It was on this basis that this study assessed the knowledge capacity of SSA and the effect it has on its economic advancement. Given the importance of the interrelatedness among the knowledge economy elements, this study, thus, examined how the interaction effect between the elements of the knowledge economy affects economic growth in 32 SSA countries, for which data were available, over the period of 17 years (1996-2012). Using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), the study found out that institutions and human capital in SSA mitigate the effect of innovation on economic growth in the region, thus, making it a lean knowledge economy. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Human Capital; ICT; Innovation; Institutions; Knowledge Economy |
| JEL: | O10 O30 O38 O55 O57 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:18/030&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Uduak S. Akpan (SPIDER Solutions, Nigeria); Salisu R. Isihak (Rural Electrification Agency, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study employs panel analysis to examine the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (MINT) using data for eleven years i.e. 2001 – 2011. First, it uses pooled time-series cross sectional analysis to estimate the model on determinants of FDI for three samples: BRICS only, MINT only, and BRICS and MINT combined; then, fixed effects model is also employed to estimate the model for BRICS and MINT combined. The results show that market size, infrastructure availability, and trade openness play the most significant roles in attracting FDI to BRICS and MINT while the roles of availability of natural resources and institutional quality are insignificant. Given that FDI inflow to a country has the potential of being mutually beneficial to the investing entity and host government, the challenge is on how BRICS and MINT can sustain the level of FDI inflow and ensure it results in economic growth and socio-economic transformation. To sustain the level of FDI inflow, governments of BRICS and MINT need to ensure that their countries remain attractive for investment. BRICS and MINT also need to ensure that their economies absorb substantial skills and technology spillovers from FDI inflow to promote sustainable long-term economic growth by investing more in their human capital. The study is significant because it contributes to literature on determinants of FDI by extending the scope of previous studies which often focus only on BRICS. |
| Keywords: | FDI, determinants, fast-growing economies, BRICS, MINT |
| JEL: | C52 F21 F23 O40 P37 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:18/038&r=all |
| By: | 深尾, 京司; 牧野, 達治; 攝津, 斉彦 |
| Abstract: | 日本経済は1868年の明治維新以降，アジアで最初に近代経済成長を開始し，第二次世界大戦後の高度成長期を経て，1970年ごろには欧州の主要国にほぼ追いついた．戦前の経済成長率は西欧諸国とほぼ同水準であったものの，高度成長期に急激な産業構造の変化を伴いながら，アメリカ・イギリスの4倍という高い成長率を達成したことが，このようなキャッチアップを可能とした．本論文では，このおよそ100年間に及ぶ経済成長の過程を，近年整備された新たなGDP推計にもとづき，成長会計の手法を用いて分析する．特に，産業構造の変化，すなわち資源の再配分の効果が，経済成長にどのような影響を与えたのかを明らかにするべく，第一次産業と非第一次産業に分けて分析を試みた．我々の分析の結果，以下の知見を得た．戦前の第一次産業は，企業勃興期から第一次世界大戦ブーム期にかけて労働生産性の上昇が著しかったが，同期間の前半部分においては， TFPの上昇がその主要因となっていたのに対し，後半部分については労働者1人あたり資本ストックおよび耕地面積の寄与が相対的に大きかった．非第一次産業では，戦前期のほぼ全期間を通じて，TFPの上昇が労働生産性上昇を説明する主要因であった．戦後については，高度成長の源泉はTFPの上昇と労働者1人あたり資本ストックの増加の寄与であったが，その上昇率は非第一次産業で圧倒的に大きかった．また，これらの成長要因と比較すると，資源の再配分効果は限定的なものであった．, After the Meiji Restoration of 1868, Japan modernized its institutions and economic growth gradually picked up. Growth accelerated especially during the so-called high-speed growth era from 1955 to 1970, when Japan rapidly caught up with Western economies. The long-term sustained high-speed growth recorded during this period was unprecedented not only in Japan but worldwide. While other East Asian countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and China subsequently also experienced remarkable growth over a prolonged period, Japan’s place in history as the first country to record such sustained high-speed growth means that its experience continues to garner worldwide interest. Using newly constructed Hitotsubashi estimates of Japan’s historical GDP statistics and a growth accounting flamework, we analyze the sources of Japan’s economic growth from 1885 to 1970 and try to answer why Japan was not able accomplish such high-speed growth before 1955. Since until the mid-1960s the primary sector accounted for a large share of economic activity and was a major determinant of overall economic growth, we use a Hayashi and Prescott (2008) type two-sector model in which the economy overall is divided into the primary sector and the non-primary sector |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:692&r=all |
| By: | Guanie Lim (Nanyang Centre for Public Administration, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on China fs outward foreign direct investment (FDI), arguably one of the most prominent forms of enew f capital entering the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in recent times, not least since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. Despite initial warmth and hopes for Chinese capital to uplift the economies of the region, recent years have witnessed some high profile pushback against China by some ASEAN members. Key concerns include but are not limited to new, often project-related concerns as well as old, if unspoken, fears that eChina is buying the world f through a spate of edebt trap diplomacy f. This paper aims to shed light on this issue, focusing on China fs outward FDI into ASEAN. Through an analysis of statistical information, it shows that Chinese FDI in ASEAN economies is considerably esmaller f than what popular rhetoric suggests. Firstly, Chinese outward FDI, while increasing in value, is not more significant than the region fs traditional investors, mainly Japan and ASEAN itself. Secondly, the quality of Chinese outward FDI is considerably less sophisticated and sustainable than what is commonly expected. Much of it is directed towards tertiary industries such as real estate activities, which contain a rather speculative element. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:19-04&r=all |
| By: | Saleemi, Muhammad Waqar; Amir-ud-Din, Rafi |
| Abstract: | Though the theoretical relationship between governance quality and crime is clear, there is no clear understanding regarding the specific characteristics of governance quality which prevent crime. To be specific, which type of crime is affected by which aspect of the governance quality is not clear. We propose to take a set of Asian countries and analyze the effect of quality of governance on the crime rates in these countries during the period of 1984 to 2014. Quality of governance is proxied by a set of indicators which include government stability, corruption, accountability, socioeconomic conditions and law and order, internal conflict, external conflict, military in politics, investment profile, religious tensions, ethnic tensions and bureaucratic quality. The types of crime analyzed in this study include homicide, burglary, robbery and kidnapping. Some economic variables like poverty, income inequality, unemployment, GDP growth and per capita GDP are used to control for the effects of governance quality on crime. We estimate the relationship by applying fixed effect model and random effects model. We also use System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method to check the issues of endogeneity. The results showed that socioeconomic conditions, corruption, law and order, external conflict, investment profile and ethnic tensions are significantly related with different categories of crime such as homicides, robbery, kidnapping and burglaries. Among different economic variables, only per capita GDP and income inequality had a significant negative relationship with homicides. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Governance, Fixed Effect, Random Effect, System GMM |
| JEL: | G38 |
| Date: | 2019–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94142&r=all |
| By: | Aziz Atamanov; R. Andres Castaneda Aguilar; Paul A. Corral Rodas; Reno Dewina; Carolina Diaz-Bonilla; Dean M. Jolliffe; Christoph Lakner; Kihoon Lee; Jose Montes; Laura Liliana Moreno Herrera; Rose Mungai; David Locke Newhouse; Minh C. Nguyen; Espen Beer Prydz; Prem Sangraula; Judy Yang |
| Abstract: | The March 2019 update to PovcalNet involves several changes to the data underlying the global poverty estimates. Some welfare aggregates have been changed for improved harmonization, and the national accounts and population input data have been updated. This document explains these changes in detail and the reasoning behind them. Emphasis is given to the update of the CPIs series released by the IMF on November 2018 and the changes to the national inequality measures in China, India, and Indonesia. In addition to the changes listed here, 50 new country-years have been added, bringing the total number of surveys to 1657. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbgpmt:7&r=all |
| By: | Long, Yan (New York University Abu Dhabi); Sethuraman, Jay (Columbia University); Xue, Jingyi (Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | A group of agents have uncertain needs on a resource, and the resource has to be divided before uncertainty resolves. We propose a class of division rules we call equal-quantile rules, parameterized by λ ∈ (0, 1]. The parameter λ is a common maximal probability of satisfaction — the probability that an agent’s realized need is no more than his assignment — imposed on all agents. Thus, the maximal assignment of each agent is his λ-quantile assignment. If the endowment of the resource exceeds the sum of the agents’ λ-quantile assignments, each agent receives his λ-quantile assignment and the resource is not fully allocated to the agents. Otherwise, the resource is fully allocated and the rule equalizes the probability of satisfaction across agents.We provide justifications for the class of equal-quantile rules from two perspectives. First, each equal-quantile rule maximizes a particular utilitarian social welfare function that involves an outside agent, who provides an alternative use of the resource, and aggregates linear individual utilities. Equivalently, it minimizes a particular utilitarian social cost function that is the sum of the aggregate expected waste and the aggregate expected deficit, weighted, respectively, by a unit waste cost and a unit deficit cost. Second, four familiar axioms, consistency, continuity, strict ranking, and ordinality, when extended to the uncertain context, characterize the class of equal-quantile rules. Thus, requiring the four axioms is equivalent to imposing either of these utilitarian objective functions. |
| Keywords: | Resource allocation; Fair division; Uncertain needs; Equal-quantile rules; Utilitarian social welfare function; Waste; Deficit; Ordinality |
| JEL: | D44 D63 D71 D82 |
| Date: | 2019–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2019_011&r=all |
| By: | Mamiko Takeuchi (Kyushu University,) |
| Abstract: | This paper comparatively analyzes determinants of earningsand the gender earningsgapamong higher-educated workers in nine maincities inseven semi-industrializedandnewlyindustrializedAsian countries. Theanalysisfocuses on effects of specific qualificationsor skillsbeyonda bachelor fsdegree; such as a postgraduate degree, specific field of degree, or experience working or studying abroad. The results show some such attributespositivelyaffectearnings, although thesevaried by cityand gender.Adecomposition analysis also revealsthere isno gender gap among higher-educated workers in Delhi and Mumbai, whereas endowment or coefficient effects ongender gaps are detectedin othercities. |
| Keywords: | Asian countries, Higher-educated workers, Specific abilities, Comparative analysis, Genderearningsgap |
| JEL: | J24 J71 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1906&r=all |
| By: | Laixun Zhao (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine the Sino-U.S. trade disputes from less-talked about angles: institutional differences, SOEs, hukou control and contemporary Chinese history. Based on these, I provide suggestions for future cooperation and improvement. |
| Keywords: | China, US, Trade Disputes, Institutions, East-Asian Cooperation |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2019-10&r=all |
| By: | van Weezel, Stijn |
| Abstract: | Significant progress has been made in improving global food security, yet some countries still face severe challenges. In some cases, violent armed conflict has potentially contributed t local food insecurity due to disruption of food production and agricultural markets. Despite the relevance of this topic in context of tracking global food security, there is a paucity of empirical work examining this cross-country variation. Therefore, this study uses country level data, covering 106 countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America between 1961-2011, to estimate the relation between conflict and food security. To proxy food security the dietary energy supply (DES) is used. Results show that conflict is associated with lower food security levels. Specifically conflicts about government power or with large fatality numbers are correlated with a large estimated reduction in the national DES. The results highlight the negative correlation between conflict and food security, illustrating how certain types of conflict could potentially undo years of progress. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2018–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:faoaes:288955&r=all |
| By: | ITO Hirotake; KASAI Keiko; NAKAMURO Makiko |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effect of computer-aided instruction (CAI) on children's cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Closely working with the Cambodian government, we ran clustered-randomized controlled trials at five elementary schools near Phnom Penn for three months. Students were randomly assigned into 20 treatment classes which were allowed to use an app based on CAI instead of regular math classes during the intervention, or 20 control classes. Our empirical results drawn from these experiments suggest that average treatment effect on cognitive skills measured using several types of math achievement tests and IQ tests is positive and statistically significant. The effect is significantly large, especially as compared with prior literature examined in developing countries: the estimated coefficients on student achievements are 0.56-0.67 standard deviations and IQ scores 0.70 standard deviations even after controlling for demographic factors. Furthermore, it is found that that CAI-based app can increase the students' subjective expectation of being able to attend tertiary education in the future. However, there is no significant effect on non-cognitive skills, such as motivation. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:19040&r=all |
| By: | Edita A. Tan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The paper briefly surveys recent migration policies in major destinations of Filipino migrants and tries to see their effect on migration flows in the past two decades. Most Western OECD economies have heightened their restrictive immigration programs that covered not only those relating to workers but also those for family unification. Their admission for employment is restricted to the highly skilled/highly educated labor. Despite the tightening of policy, emigration to Western OECD increased in the past three decades. Emigration to the US has been declining but emigration to other countries, though relatively small, rose. Saudi Arabia, the largest employer of foreign workers in the Gulf adopted the Nitaqat policy of imposing higher national to foreign labor ratio in the private sector. This may explain the drop in the flow of labor to the GCC in 2015 and 2016. The drop could be a temporary fluctuation as the state could not easily develop sufficient number of skilled and disciplined citizens to replace foreign labor. The GCC states’ heavy dependence on foreign labor is expected to continue. The skill composition of foreign workers may change depending on their future economic and social development. |
| Keywords: | migration; Philippines |
| JEL: | J08 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:201902&r=all |
| By: | Raul V. Fabella (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Geoffrey Ducanes |
| Abstract: | The power industry is being severely disrupted globally and local industry stakeholders have every reason to be worried. The question is how stakeholder capital should henceforth be deployed to reduce the risk of stranded assets. This study is undertaken to assess the impact of power industry disruptors on the near-term prospect of the electricity demand in the most important submarket of the Philippine power market, the greater Metro-Manila area. The emphasis is on the impact of technology disruptors, especially of solar photovoltaic generation and storage, on top of and in conjunction with policy disruptors. Part One tackles firstly the risks to sustained economic and income growth which will, in turn, impact on the demand for electricity?the macro-economic risks, the global risks, and the policy risks; secondly the risks internal to the electricity industry itself?the technology disruptors especially coming from growing adoption of rooftop and mini-grid solar photovoltaic installations and battery storage. The challenge of solar distributed generation counsels a more sober outlook and a more inclusive portfolio diversification by centralized power generation capitalists. Part Two employs an error correction model to forecast the growth of aggregate and disaggregate (by customer types) demand in a distribution utility franchise, in this case, the Meralco franchise, over the next five years. This model can be adopted as benchmark and adapted by industry stakeholders especially other distribution utility franchises for their own forecasts which should inform the rate setting exercise between the distribution utilities and the regulator, the Energy Regulatory Commission. |
| Keywords: | Electricity demand; Forecast methods; Distributed Solar Photovoltaic; Rooftop and Mini-grid systems; Policy disruptors |
| JEL: | C53 Q47 Q43 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:201901&r=all |
| By: | Alok Kumar (Department of Economics, University of Victoria) |
| Abstract: | Old-age income support is an important motive for parents to invest in schooling of their children in developing countries. At the time parents choose schooling investment for their children, both parental future income and return from schooling are uncertain. This paper analyzes effects of parental income risk and human capital investment risk on parental schooling investment using alternative models (altruism and educational loan model) of determination of old-age income support in a model with intergenerational transfers. It finds that effects of these risks on schooling investment depend on whether old-age income support is state-contingent. When income support is state-contingent, increasing parental income risk (human capital investment risk) has a positive (negative) effect on schooling investment. However, when income support is not state-contingent, effects of these two types of risks may get reversed. Numerical analysis using Indonesian data suggests that risks have significant negative effect on schooling investment. |
| Keywords: | Schooling, Parental Income Risk, Human Capital Investment Risk, Old-Age Income Support, Risk-Sharing |
| Date: | 2019–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vic:vicddp:1903&r=all |
| By: | Sumit Agarwal (National University of Singapore); Abhiroop Mukherjee (Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); S Lakshmi Naaraayanan (Ph.D in Finance, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Does financing respond to changes in productive opportunities even for the world's poor? We shed light by examining the response of private bank financing to a rural road-building program in India. The program prioritized roads for villages above explicit population thresholds, allowing us to use discontinuities in treatment probability for identification. We find large financing responses - odds of a villager getting a loan is twice as high, and the average loan amounts are about 50% higher - for villages just above the threshold compared to those below. Benefits seem to flow disproportionately to those traditionally disadvantaged in rural societies. |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201961&r=all |