nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2019‒06‒10
twenty-one papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The impact of the economic crisis on micro, small, and medium enterprises and their crisis mitigation measures in Southeast Asia with reference to Indonesia By Tulus T. H. Tambunan
  2. Corruption and the business environment in Vietnam: Implications from an empirical study By Daisuke Maruichi and Masato Abe
  3. An institutional analysis of the fiscal autonomy of public hospitals in Vietnam By Minh Thị Hải Võ and Karl Löfgren
  4. Childcare and Maternal Employment: Evidence from Vietnam By Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Hiraga, Masako; Nguyen, Cuong Viet
  5. Becoming Owners: The Business Case for Customer-Centered Banking By Daly, Mary C.
  6. How can Taiwan enlarge its role in the process of Asia-Pacific economic integration By Liu, Da-Nien
  7. Projection of fossil fuel demands in Vietnam to 2050 and climate change implications By Quang Minh Tran
  8. Effects of information and seedling provision on tree planting and survival in smallholder oil palm plantations By Rudolf, Katrin; Romero, Miriamt; Asnawi, Rosyani; Irawan, Bambang; Wollni, Meike
  9. Drivers of Growth in Fast Emerging Economies: a Dynamic Instrumental Quantile Approach to Real Output and its Rates of Growth in BRICS and MINT countries, 2001-2011 By Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  10. Stepping up from subsistence to commercial intensive farming to enhance welfare of farmer households in Indonesia By Joko Mariyono
  11. Identifying Sri Lanka’s Sources of Growth: The Application of Primal and Dual Total Factor Productivity Growth Accounting Approaches By Ranpati Dewage Thilini Sumudu Kumari; Sam Hak Kan Tang
  12. The Property Market, Affordability and the Malaysian National Housing Policy By Ferlito, Carmelo
  13. Education, fertility and childlessness in Indonesia By Marine de Talancé
  14. Can crop diversification of perennial crop by smallholder farmers explained by risk attitudes and time preferences? By Wening Sarwosri, Arieska; Mußhoff, Oliver
  15. Can Transparency and Accountability Programs Improve Health? Experimental Evidence from Indonesia and Tanzania By Arkedis, Jean; Creighton, Jessica; Dixit, Akshay; Fung, Archon; Kosack, Stephen; Levy, Dan; Tolmie, Courtney
  16. The Belt and Road Initiative: What is in it for China? By Lauren A. Johnston
  17. EFForTS-LGraf: A landscape generator for creating smallholder-driven land-use mosaics By Salecker, Jan; Dislich, Claudia; Wiegand, Kerstin; Meyer, Katrin M.; Pe'er, Guy
  18. Formal Financial Inclusion in Cambodia: What are the Key Barriers and Determinants? By SAM, Vichet
  19. Determinants of School Dropout in Lao PDR: A Survival Analysis By Kikeo Boualaphet; Hideaki Goto
  20. Assessment of risks and benefits for the Russian economy from the conduct of various integration strategies in modern conditions By Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр); Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Кузнецов, Дмитрий); Sedalischev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир)
  21. The economic value of NBS restoration measures and their benefits in a river basin context: A meta-analysis regression By Nabila Arfaoui; Amandine Gnonlonfin

  1. By: Tulus T. H. Tambunan
    Abstract: The literature on the impact of the economic crisis on micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and how they deal with it is still limited. Focusing on the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, this study aims to fill this gap. There are two key questions: how these two economic crises have affected MSMEs and what were then their crisis mitigation (CM) measures. To answer these questions, this study reviews experiences in several countries in Southeast Asia with the impacts of these two crises on MSMEs and their responses to the crises. It shows that the impact of the 1997/1998 crisis on MSMEs is different from the 2008/2009 crisis. Findings from a survey of MSMEs affected by the 2008–2009 crisis indicate that finding new customers or markets in other countries unaffected by the crisis or switching to the domestic market was the most widely adopted CM measure. For other respondents who made adjustments to their workforce, the most important form was to reduce working day.
    Keywords: Asian economic crisis, global financial crisis, Indonesia, MSMEs, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2019–01–22
  2. By: Daisuke Maruichi and Masato Abe
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of corruption on the business environment in Vietnam. Our survey of firms conducted in Vietnam suggests that corruption is perceived as the most impactful business obstacle for their operation. It was also found that corruption has a significant negative association with the overall satisfaction of the business environment in Vietnam, which supports the hypothesis that corruption has a “sand the wheel†effect on firms' business activities. Given these results, it is urgent that the Vietnamese public authorities accelerate efforts in mitigating this issue. Although this paper sheds light on the importance of corruption, it would be useful to conduct follow†up studies examining corruption and its impact in more detail. Such studies could be conducted in segments that most severely suffer from corruption according to our survey, that is, medium†sized enterprises in the hotel/restaurant and construction sectors, Hanoi based, and Vietnamese owned firms.
    Keywords: business environment, business obstacle, corruption, firm perception, Vietnam
    Date: 2019–06–07
  3. By: Minh Thị Hải Võ and Karl Löfgren
    Abstract: This paper explores the fiscal autonomy of Vietnam's public hospitals through analysing the formal autonomy rules and the actual autonomy practices among selected hospitals. We argue that Vietnam's autonomisation of public hospitals underpins the increasing switch of healthcare costs from the state onto society alongside the transition from the universal and free healthcare services to a mix of state subsidy and fees†for†services. Utilised as a strategic instrument, hospital autonomy is reinforced in service provision, capital mobilisation, and allocation of net revenues, leaving autonomy in other dimensions increase incrementally. Consequently, Vietnam's hospital autonomisation has occasioned various revenue†maximising practices including the provision of “patient†requested†services, provider†induced supply of unnecessary services, excessive use of high†tech diagnostic equipment, inappropriate prescription of drugs, increase in patients' length of stay, and receipt of informal payments. While discerning healthcare reform in a country context, this paper expects to offer lessons to policy†makers in developing countries, which reform their healthcare services along the market principle.
    Keywords: autonomy, health care, institutions, public hospitals, Vietnam
    Date: 2019–01–22
  4. By: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Hiraga, Masako; Nguyen, Cuong Viet
    Abstract: Little literature currently exists on the effects of childcare use on maternal labor market outcomes in a developing country context, and recent studies offer mixed results. We attempt to fill these gaps by analyzing several of the latest rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey spanning the early to mid-2010s. Addressing endogeneity issues with a regression discontinuity estimator based on children’s birth months, we find a sizable effect of childcare attendance on women’s labor market outcomes, including their total annual wages, household income, and poverty status. The effects of childcare attendance differ by women’s characteristics and are particularly strong for younger, more educated women. Furthermore, childcare has a medium-term effect and positively impacts men’s labor market outcomes as well.
    Keywords: Gender equality,child care,maternal employment,women’s empowerment,Vietnam
    JEL: J13 J16 J22 H42
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Daly, Mary C. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: Remarks at Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance, Singapore, Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 3, 2019.
    Date: 2019–06–03
  6. By: Liu, Da-Nien
    Abstract: The forming of regional alliances has become a trend, and the number of FTAs has grown exponentially in recent years. Regionalism has become a trend that has not only affected functions of the WTO, but also severely impacted global trade, investment, and even industrial division of labor. From Taiwan's point of view, the vogue for large-scale FTAs in the past few years has had a major impact on Taiwan, which is heavily dependent on foreign trade, is closely tied up with global supply chains, and it has been able to sign only a handful of FTAs. On this basis, this paper mainly analyzes how Taiwan can assume a greater role and make breakthroughs in the trend of regional economic integration. We will first summarize global trends and latest developments in regional economic integration. The second part is to describe Taiwan's participation in regional economic integration and the difficulties that were encountered. The third explains how Taiwan should make adjustments in its industry and system to increase opportunities for breakthrough in regional integration, and also increase Taiwan's importance in the Asia-Pacific's regional economy.
    Keywords: Regional Economic Integration, Free Trade Agreement(FTA), Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), O
    Date: 2019–05
  7. By: Quang Minh Tran
    Abstract: Over the past decade, Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies. Fossil fuel use, which is a dominant energy source and vital for economic growth, have been increasing considerably. Undoubtedly, the projection of fossil fuel demand is essential for a better understanding of energy needs, fuel mix, and Vietnam's strategic development. This paper provides an outlook for coal, oil, and gas demand in Vietnam to 2050. The projection is based on the calibrated results from a hybrid model (that combines a GTAP†R version for resources, and a micro simulation approach) and an energy database. Under the baseline scenario (business as usual), from 2018 to 2050, the demand for coal, oil products, and gas are expected to increase by a factor of 2.47†fold, 2.14†fold, and 1.67†fold, respectively. Emissions are also projected to increase. Because fossil fuels are the dominant source of carbon emissions in Vietnam, it follows, going forward, that an effective fuel†mix strategy that encourages the development of renewables and energy efficiency is essential.
    Keywords: climate change, emissions, fossil fuels demand, projection, Vietnam
    Date: 2019–06–07
  8. By: Rudolf, Katrin; Romero, Miriamt; Asnawi, Rosyani; Irawan, Bambang; Wollni, Meike
    Abstract: Oil palm expansion in Indonesia is associated with a reduction in biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as livelihood improvements for smallholder farmers. While this dichotomy highlights the importance of sustainable management options, empirical evidence on which policies are effective in stimulating biodiversity-friendly plantation management is relatively scarce. This paper addresses this gap by presenting results from a randomized controlled trial implemented in Jambi province, Sumatra, in 2016. We focus on native tree planting in oil palm plantations as one sustainable management option. To test whether information and input provision affect the number of trees planted by smallholders two treatments were designed: the first provided information about tree planting in oil palm, while the second combined information and seedling delivery. We model adoption in a double-hurdle framework where farmers first decide whether to adopt or not and then how many trees they plant per hectare. Our results suggest that both interventions are effective in stimulating tree planting in oil palm. Seedling provision in combination with information leads to a higher probability of adoption, but farmers plant on average relatively few trees per hectare. In contrast, in the informational treatment, few farmers adopt, but they plant more trees per hectare than farmers who received seedlings. Furthermore, we observe that the survival rate of trees planted is lower for farmers who received seedlings in comparison to farmers who only received information. Since we cannot find evidence for farmer and plot selection effects, it is likely that species choice and seedling quality are the underlying drivers of this difference.
    Keywords: technology adoption,randomized control trial,double-hurdle model,policy analysis,tree survival,video-based extension
    JEL: Q12 Q16 Q57 D04 C9
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: We analyze the evolution of fast emerging economies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) countries, by assessing growth determinants throughout the conditional distributions of the growth rate and real GDP output for the period 2001-2011. An instrumenal variable (IV) quantile regression approach is complemented with Two-Stage-Least Squares and IV Least Absolute Deviations. We find that the highest rates of growth of real GDP per head, among the nine countries of this study, corresponded to China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Turkey, but the highest increases in real GDP per capita corresponded, in descending order, to Turkey China, Brazil, South Africa and India. This study analyzes the impacts of several indicators on the increase of the rate of growth of real GDP and on the logarithm of the real GDP. We analyze several limitations of the methodology, related with the selection of the explained and the explanatory variables, the effect of missing variables, and the particular problems of some indicators. Our results show that Net Foreign Direct Investment, Natural Resources, and Political Stability have a positive and significant impact on the rate of growth of real GDP or on real GDP.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Emerging countries; Quantile regression
    JEL: C52 F21 F23 O40 O50
    Date: 2018–01
  10. By: Joko Mariyono
    Abstract: This article assesses the welfare impact of intensive chilli farming and determines the factors motivating farmers to engage in commercial farming. This study uses a structural equation model that measures the direct and indirect effects of explanatory variables on intensive chilli production and welfare. This study uses data of field surveys of randomly selected 220 farmers in three regions of Java. The results show that stepping up to intensive and profit†oriented farming improved farmers' welfare. Internal and external factors, directly and indirectly, affected farmers' decision to devote more resources to commercial chilli farming. Farmers' knowledge, as well as access to credit, technology adoption, marketplace, and traders, played significant roles in improving rural welfare. The government needs to reform marketing system of horticultural products and establish market infrastructures to accommodate oversupply during peak season. Easy and flexible credit should be available and accessible to farmers, with technology applicable to such agriculture.
    Keywords: chilli farming, external and internal factors, farming society, structural equation modelling (SEM), welfare impact
    Date: 2019–06–07
  11. By: Ranpati Dewage Thilini Sumudu Kumari (Economics Discipline, Business School, The University of Western Australia and Central Bank of Sri Lanka); Sam Hak Kan Tang (Economics Discipline, Business School, The University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: This study aims to identify how much of economic growth is driven by improvement in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in Sri Lanka, a small open economy, in comparison to other Asian economies. To examine this, aggregate TFP growth was calculated for Sri Lanka by using both primal and dual growth accounting frameworks. The study covers the period 1980-2016 and eight sub-periods, classified according to distinctive socio-economic-politico changes. For the whole period, TFP growth accounts for 45 percent of the total output growth. The annual average TFP growth rates under the primal and dual approaches are 2.3 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. Though the growth accounting framework has limitations, the results were robust enough to draw comparative conclusions with those of other Asian countries. Sri Lanka’s TFP growth under both methods has been positive and higher than some Asian countries, except for China. Further, though Indonesia and Sri Lanka have similar per capita GDP levels, Sri Lanka’s TFP growth has been higher than that of Indonesia. Additionally, we show that the two growth drivers in Sri Lanka have been capital accumulation and productivity growth.
    Keywords: Dual Approach, Growth Accounting, Primal Approach, Sources of Growth, Sri Lanka, Total Factor Productivity
    JEL: D24 E22 E23 F43 O47
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Ferlito, Carmelo
    Abstract: Key Messages • The industry is suffering a downturn that might lead to a wider economic crisis. The negative stage experienced by the housing sector is recognizable in the increasing number of unsold units, in the declining number of transactions and in the progressive cooling down of prices. Failing to recognize this fact would lead to the risk of being unprepared for an economic downturn. • The debate on affordable housing is incomplete if it is not contextualized in the realm of the general evolution of the property market. The current discussion is strongly unbalanced toward the issue of affordability, while the property market’s cyclical dynamic is disregarded; such a tendency could lead to a situation in which the country will not be equipped to face the consequences of the downturn that has already started. • With regard to the affordability issue, the present study argues that home ownership is less of a problem than what the political debate would tend to suggest: with 76.3 per cent of home ownership, Malaysia is performing better than neighbouring countries. • The affordability issue is a complex one, and looking at it simply by looking at the ratio between median house price and median income is simplistic and misleading; in order to decide what is affordable is a choice involving a trade-off between three elements: price, floor area and location. • The low-end market segment is not disregarded by the private developers because it is naturally unprofitable, but because it is artificially made unprofitable by a series of regulatory obstacles that become supply-side bottlenecks. Recommendations • In order to face a downturn in the property market, this paper suggests primarily acting to address home-owners’ negative equities. In the case of the emergence of a severe mortgage crisis, loan condition modifications should be helpful in seeking to reboot homeowners’ damaged balance sheets in an effort to arrest a prolonged deleveraging process and more quickly restore household demand to levels no longer dominated by negative home equity. Keep in mind that this should be an emergency measure to be implemented only in dramatic circumstances. • Fiscal discipline and strict down-payment rules are recommended. In particular, it would be important for the government to monitor quantity and quality of the expenses, being clear on how eventual deficits are financed. With reference to down-payment rules, mortgage, property insurance, and property taxes should not exceed 30 percent of income. • Redesign of the fiscal system in favour of consumption taxes rather than income taxes. A mix of GST and reduced income taxes can be studied in order to ensure a source of income for the government from one side and to orient consumer attitudes toward saving, and so support re-building the monetary funds available for investment projects. • The better way to generate affordable projects would be to remove regulatory obstacles, starting with reducing the direct involvement of government agencies in building low-cost homes. • In contrast with what is suggested by the National Housing Policy, too-strict requirements for low-cost developments (i.e. minimum size) should be avoided in order to facilitate the interaction between supply and demand, taking into account the location and size factors, and therefore allowing lower income people to move toward the economic heart of the country, supporting thus not only their housing issues but also promoting their possibilities for a higher degree of social mobility. • Disruptive entrepreneurship will play a key role in developing new technologies for making housing developments cheaper from the cost side. However, in order to emerge such kind of entrepreneurship requires freedom to react to market signals and cannot be centrally designed, because of the specific nature of entrepreneurial discovery processes. • A higher role for the rental market is expected to emerge in the future. Under this perspective, the government might consider Jacob’s proposal of guaranteed-rent homes, where the central authority guarantees the loan for those developers investing in affordable projects, and partially covers the rent disbursement, in order to make the projects both affordable and economically viable. This method would have the advantage of avoiding capital expenditure from the government side, and moreover of decreasing current expenditures whenever the subsidised tenants improve their economic conditions.
    Keywords: National Housing Policy,Malaysia,Affordable Housing
    JEL: B30 B32
    Date: 2019
  13. By: Marine de Talancé
    Date: 2019
  14. By: Wening Sarwosri, Arieska; Mußhoff, Oliver
    Abstract: This study examines whether the decision of crop diversification for perennial crops is based on underlying risk attitudes and time preferences. We conducted incentivised field experiments on Sumatra Island, Indonesia, involving farmers who cultivate rubber and farmers who cultivated rubber and oil palm trees, i.e., undertook crop diversification. We estimated risk attitudes and time preferences jointly. The results indicated that farmers who undertook crop diversification were statistically significantly more risk-averse than rubber farmers. However, the time preferences between the two groups were not statistically significantly different.
    Keywords: crop diversification,oil palms,risk attitudes,rubber,time preference
    Date: 2019
  15. By: Arkedis, Jean (Harvard Kennedy School); Creighton, Jessica (Harvard Kennedy School); Dixit, Akshay (Harvard Kennedy School); Fung, Archon (Harvard Kennedy School); Kosack, Stephen (Harvard Kennedy School); Levy, Dan (Harvard Kennedy School); Tolmie, Courtney (Harvard Kennedy School)
    Abstract: We assess the impact of a transparency and accountability program designed to improve maternal and newborn health (MNH) outcomes in Indonesia and Tanzania. Co-designed with local partner organizations to be community-led and non-prescriptive, the program sought to encourage community participation to address local barriers in access to high quality care for pregnant women and infants. We evaluate the impact of this program through randomized controlled trials (RCTs), involving 100 treatment and 100 control communities in each country. We find that on average, this program did not have a statistically significant impact on the use or content of maternal and newborn health services, nor the sense of civic efficacy or civic participation among recent mothers in the communities who were offered it. These findings hold in both countries and in a set of prespecified subgroups. To identify reasons for the lack of impacts, we use a mixed-method approach combining interviews, observations, surveys, focus groups, and ethnographic studies that together provide an in-depth assessment of the complex causal paths linking participation in the program to improvements in MNH outcomes. Although participation in program meetings was substantial and sustained in most communities, and most attempted at least some of what they had planned, only a minority achieved tangible improvements and fewer still saw more than one such success. Our assessment is that the main explanation for the lack of impact is that few communities were able to traverse the complex causal paths from planning actions to accomplishing tangible improvements in their access to quality health care.
    Date: 2019–06
  16. By: Lauren A. Johnston
    Abstract: China's outbound investment exceeded inbound investment for the first time in 2015. In years leading up this transition, a maturing demographic transition alongside slowing internal migration and diminishing returns to physical capital investment, all had a role in China's diminished competitiveness in low†wage manufactured exports and the fading of the related growth model. In that context, the 2013 launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) took place in two stages in two developing countries, Kazakhstan and Indonesia. These launch choices, and the BRI in general are herein elaborated in terms of economic history, geography, and demography. The BRI in turn is considered to be aiming to foster the ongoing development of China, and in doing so also seeks to instigate new era development opportunity for other developing countries. One facilitation channel for the latter is China's concept of “patient capital,†essentially concessional capital, or foreign aid. For China that offers a means via which to internationalise the financial sector and also the Renminbi. Lessons from China's own use of foreign aid and economic development hence serve as an important reference for ongoing scoping of the shape and trajectory of the BRI. To that end, this article sheds light on what is in the BRI for China.
    Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, China, development, economic demography, RMB internationalisation
    Date: 2019–01–22
  17. By: Salecker, Jan; Dislich, Claudia; Wiegand, Kerstin; Meyer, Katrin M.; Pe'er, Guy
    Abstract: Spatially-explicit simulation models are commonly used to study complex ecological and socio-economic research questions. Often these models depend on detailed input data, such as initial land-cover maps to set up model simulations. Here we present the landscape generator EFFortS-LGraf that provides artificially-generated land-use maps of agricultural landscapes shaped by small-scale farms. EFForTS-LGraf is a process-based landscape generator that explicitly incorporates the human dimension of land-use change. The model generates roads and villages that consist of smallholder farming households. These smallholders use different establishment strategies to create fields in their close vicinity. Crop types are distributed to these fields based on crop fractions and specialization levels. EFForTS-LGraf model parameters such as household area or field size frequency distributions can be derived from household surveys or geospatial data. This can be an advantage over the abstract parameters of neutral landscape generators. We tested the model using oil palm and rubber farming in Indonesia as a case study and validated the artificially-generated maps against classified satellite images. Our results show that EFForTS-LGraf is able to generate realistic land-cover maps with properties that lie within the boundaries of landscapes from classified satellite images. An applied simulation experiment on landscape-level effects of increasing household area and crop specialization revealed that larger households with higher specialization levels led to spatially more homogeneous and less scattered crop type distributions and reduced edge area proportion. Thus, EFForTS-LGraf can be applied both to generate maps as inputs for simulation modelling and as a stand-alone tool for specific landscape-scale analyses in the context of ecological-economic studies of smallholder farming systems.
    Keywords: landscape generator,agent-based model,ABM,NetLogo,process-based,Indonesia
    Date: 2019
  18. By: SAM, Vichet
    Abstract: This article investigates the barriers to formal financial inclusion in Cambodia, focusing on saving and credit strands. We propose the multinomial logit model, allowing to distinguish the outcome variable into three categories: Formal inclusion, Informal inclusion and Financial exclusion. We apply this model to the FinScope survey data conducted in late 2015, which represents the adult population in Cambodia. Results suggest that the trust to financial institutions, the financial literacy, the distance to banks or MFI, the lack of documentation and the service costs are the main obstacles, but these barriers affect the probability of using formal financial services differently according to the types of financial services (saving or credit). Gender, marital status, education, income, access to media and information, the use of mobile phone with the access to the Internet and the household size are also found to be the key determinants.
    Keywords: Determinants and Barriers to financial inclusion, Developing country, Multinomial logit model.
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2019–05–18
  19. By: Kikeo Boualaphet (Bank of Lao PDR); Hideaki Goto (International University of Japan)
    Abstract: Using the most recent round of a nationally representative survey series, this study examines determinants of dropout from primary to higher levels of education in Lao PDR. The existing studies show that, unlike in other developing countries, the effects of household income and gender are limited. Our analysis confirms the former, that is, net household income has a negligible effect but not the latter-gender inequality remains an issue to be resolved at relatively higher levels of education. Further, despite the government's significant emphasis on early childhood education, the earlier studies report only insignificant effects. In contrast, we find that preschool attendance helps reduce dropout rates, implying that the government policy has been gaining effectiveness in recent years. As in other countries, mothers' schooling and school construction have positive effects on school enrollment in Lao PDR as well.
    Keywords: School dropout, education, preschool, gender inequality, survival analysis, Laos
    Date: 2019–05
  20. By: Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalischev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Assessment of risks and benefits for the Russian economy from various integration strategies in modern conditions To find the best ways for Russia to liberalize trade between EAEU and other countries of the world, taking into account the hostile actions of third parties (the sanctions confrontation with the EU and the USA, etc.), we used the GLOBE v1 computable general equilibrium model. We have limited ourselves to considering five integration sites, the formation of which, in our opinion, is most likely due to the current state of their negotiation progress: TPP without the USA, SCO, ASEAN, RCEP and TTIP. It was assumed that with each of these sites the EAEU may or may not create an FTA, which led us to consider 243 different scenarios. As shown by the calculations, the inaction of the EAEU has, as a rule, a weak positive effect on the countries of the EAEU both at the level of industries and at the level of the economy as a whole. At the same time, the participation of the EAEU countries in the integration processes can give noticeable gains in terms of GDP (up to 1.2% from Russia) and trade. Nevertheless, participation in these processes creates noticeable industry risks (decline in output to 1.9%) in some sectors.
    Date: 2019–04
  21. By: Nabila Arfaoui (University Catholic of Lyon, ESDES); Amandine Gnonlonfin (Université de Nice/IMREDD)
    Abstract: The study collects original monetary estimates for Nature Based Solutions (NBS) and benefits, with restoration approach in a basin context. A database of 187 monetary estimates is constructed to perform the first meta-analysis, which will assess how individuals value the NBS restoration measures and their benefits. We find that individuals value, in particular, global climate regulation, local environmental regulation, recreational activities, and habitat and biodiversity benefits. We find also that NBS measures aimed at floodplains and river streams are more highly valued. The results of this study suggest that the Willingness-to-pay (WTP) is weakly influenced by the methodological variables. While the contingent valuation method affects the WTP compared to studies using choice experiments, the payment and econometric method means have only a marginal effect. Survey modes are never significant. Finally, studies on the US and Europe country contexts show higher WTP than those conducted in Asia.
    Keywords: Nature Based Solution (NBS), Meta-Analysis, Ecosystem services, Willingness To Pay
    JEL: Q51 Q57 O13
    Date: 2019–04

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