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on South East Asia |
| By: | Mansur, Alfan; Al Arif, Munafsin |
| Abstract: | Kepemilikan investor nonresiden pada surat berharga negara (SBN) saat ini relatif cukup tinggi. Dibandingkan beberapa negara di kawasan seperti Malaysia, Thailand, Jepang, dan Korea Selatan, porsi kepemilikan investor non residen di Indonesia merupakan yang tertinggi. Hal ini dapat meningkatkan risiko apabila terjadi sudden reversal. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk tidak hanya mengukur dampak perubahan arus modal masuk maupun arus modal keluar oleh investor nonresiden terhadap perubahan yield dan volatilitas yield, lebih dalam lagi juga dengan mempertimbangkan kondisi pasar keuangan global. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa aliran keluar/masuk modal asing terbukti secara statistik berpengaruh terhadap kinerja SBN secara signifikan. Hasil empiris juga menunjukkan bahwa masuk dan keluarnya modal asing memiliki dampak yang asimetris terhadap kinerja pasar SBN. Dampak negatif arus modal keluar lebih besar daripada pengaruh positif ketika modal asing masuk ke pasar SBN. 1 persen penurunan kepemilikan asing pada SBN menaikkan yield SBN sebesar ±16 bps s.d. 41 bps. Sedangkan 1 persen kenaikan kepemilikan asing pada SBN hanya menurunkan yield SBN sebesar ±15 bps s.d. 30 bps. Hal yang bisa dilakukan regulator untuk mengurangi potensi dampak sudden reversal adalah dengan memperdalam pasar keuangan itu sendiri dengan mendorong partisipasi investor domestik lebih besar lagi, terutama dari pengelola sovereign wealth fund, sehingga akan menciptakan pasar dan memperdalam likuiditas pasar keuangan Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | surat berharga negara, sudden reversal, yield, volatilitas |
| JEL: | E40 E60 G10 |
| Date: | 2017–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93944&r=all |
| By: | Liehui Wang; Yuanbo Zheng; César Ducruet (GC - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fan Zhang |
| Abstract: | After the the Belt and Road initiative launched in 2013, Chinese terminal operators invested in ports situated along the "21st- century Maritime Silk Road (MSR)". Identifying which ports are important is made possible through applying complex network methods and GIS analysis. This paper thus identifies strategic hub ports and investment strategies along the MSR. Our main conclusions are as follows. (1) In 2017, the ports with the greatest contact with China were located in the Southeast Asian and European shipping areas. (2) The overseas invested terminals of Chinese terminal operators are mainly concentrated in European and the Mediterranean Sea. Although the connection between China and Southeast Asia is strengthening, terminal operations in Southeast Asia did not expand significantly in the past 12 years. (3) The ports of Singapore, Kelang, Manila (Asia), Rotterdam, Hamburg (Europe), Suez and Port Said (Mediterranean and Red Sea), Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney (Oceania) are the ports of major concern for current and future investment by Chinese terminal operators. |
| Keywords: | Maritime Silk Road,port competition,terminal operators,terminal investment,investment direction,shipping networks |
| Date: | 2019–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02092097&r=all |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the association between globalization and carbon emissions for N-11 countries. In doing so, we apply bounds testing approach to examine cointegration between globalization and CO2 emissions. The results confirm the U-shaped association between globalization and carbon emissions for Bangladesh, Iran, and South Korea. Contrarily, traditional approach validates an inverted-U relationship between globalization and carbon emissions for Pakistan and South Korea, but U-shaped relationship exists for the Philippines and Vietnam. The presence or absence of an inverted-U relationship between globalization and carbon emissions has important policy implications using globalization as an economic tool for sustainable economic development. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Emissions, EKC, N-11 |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2019–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93959&r=all |
| By: | Fitri Amalia, Rizki |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the comparison of financial distress in construction companies in the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2014 -2018 using 5 methods are Altman Z-Score, Falmer, Grover, Springate and Zmijewski methods. The samplingtechnique used was purposive sampling. The sample in this study amounted to 8 construction companies. The analysis technique used is descriptive analysis by comparing the results of financial distress using the 5 methods. The results of the study stated that some companies experienced financial distress or experienced conditions of financial difficulties, such as Adhi Karya (ADHI) and Nusa Konstruksi Enjiniring (DGIK). Financial conditions that are unstable or experience fluctuations that cause companies to have the possibilityof financial distress |
| Keywords: | financial distress, construction |
| JEL: | G1 G10 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2019–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93962&r=all |
| By: | suhardi, suhardi; Afrizal, Afrizal |
| Abstract: | The pecking order theory of capital structure is one of the most influential theories of corporate finance. The purpose of this study is to explore the most important factors on a firm’s capital structure by pecking-order theory. Hierarchical regression is used as the analysis model. This study examines the determinants of debt decisions for 31Indonesianbanking companies that are quoted on the Indonesian Stock Exchange of 2010-2015. The results indicate that the determinants of capital structure are profitability and growth rate. The profitability negatively effects on the capital structure. It implies that firms prefer to use their earnings to finance business activities and thus useless debt capital. Growth rate positively affects capital structure. The greater growth opportunity will have more capital structure to finance the growth. Size is a moderator variable in this study. Size of firms moderates the effects of the tax rate on capital structure. Large firms appear to take advantage of the tax deductibility of debt. The findings are important for management and investors |
| Keywords: | Corporate finance, Capital structure, Pecking order theory, Banking |
| JEL: | G10 G11 G14 |
| Date: | 2019–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93963&r=all |
| By: | Mansur, Alfan |
| Abstract: | Barangkali di benak semua orang Indonesia, krisis moneter 1998 dan krisis keuangan 2008 merupakan dua episode krisis yang paling diingat. Tidak hanya di sektor ekonomi dan keuangan, dua periode krisis tersebut juga diwarnai keterkaitan dengan kejadian politik yang sepertinya lebih menyebabkan gaduh dibandingkan dengan dampak krisis terhadap sektor ekonomi itu sendiri. Jarak waktu antara kedua krisis tersebut adalah 10 tahun. Tulisan ini berusaha menjawab pertanyaan benarkah bahwa krisis memiliki siklus 10 tahunan? Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa tidak ditemukan bukti yang cukup untuk mengatakan bahwa krisis memiliki siklus 10 tahunan. Selain itu, fundamental ekonomi dan sistem keuangan Indonesia sudah jauh lebih baik dibanding 20 atau 10 tahun yang lalu. Kita tidak pernah tahu apa yang akan terjadi ke depan, terutama dinamika shocks yang akan muncul termasuk dari sisi geopolitik. Namun, kita dapat mempersiapkan diri sebaik mungkin dan sejauh ini Indonesia sudah jauh lebih siap apabila terjadi hal – hal yang tidak diinginkan pada sistem keuangan kita. |
| Keywords: | krisis, ekonomi, siklus, sistem keuangan |
| JEL: | E44 G01 |
| Date: | 2017–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93945&r=all |
| By: | Bo Jiang; Tahsin Saadi Sedik |
| Abstract: | Using a new firm-level dataset with comprehensive information on Asian firms’ FX liabilities, we show that Asia’s nonfinancial corporate sector is vulnerable to a tightening of global financial conditions. Higher global interest rates and exchange rate depreciation increase the probability of default of Asian firms. A 30 percent currency depreciation is associated with a two-notch downgrade in the corporate credit rating (e.g., from A to BBB+), resulting in 7 percent of Asian firms falling into bankruptcy. But the impact is nonlinear—as the firms’ FX liability increases, the balance sheet channel of exchange rate offsets, then dominates, the competitiveness channel. The balance sheet channel offsets the competitiveness channel when the share of U.S. dollar debt is between 10 and 20 percent. We also find that currency depreciation increases firm-level investment on average, but for firms with the share of FX liabilities above 20 percent, investment contracts with depreciation. |
| Date: | 2019–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/93&r=all |
| By: | Asavasaetakul, Chawin |
| Abstract: | The hilltribes of northern Thailand lead a unique rural lifestyle centered around agriculture, traditions and their community. Through field research in selected villages, this thesis analyzes and attempts to explore expenditure patterns of the hill tribes through an econometric model and in doing so gains valuable insight which can be utilized for evidence-informed public policy. |
| Keywords: | Hill tribes, expenditure, econometrics |
| JEL: | Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93918&r=all |
| By: | Gunawan, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This study aims to test empirically whether public share ownership is able to moderate the relationship between the financial performance proxy with profitability on the quality of information. The quality of IFR information is measured through the disclosure index compiled by Boubaker et al (2012). This index contains 100 items of website-based disclosure that are commonly used in measuring the quality of accounting-based reporting information. The sample of this study is a manufacturing company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, where the data analysis techniques that will be used are moderated Regression Analysis with the help of Indirect macro created by Andrew F. Hayes (2015) in combination with SPSS 23. The results show that public shareholding is able to moderate the relationship between financial performance with the quality of IFR information. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: public share ownership, financial performance, profitability and quality of information |
| JEL: | G10 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2019–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93960&r=all |
| By: | Hein, Yarzar; Vijitsrikamol, Kampanat; Attavanich, Witsanu; Janekarnkij, Penporn |
| Abstract: | With the existing state of issues related to global climate change, the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate is critically important if they plan to implement appropriate adaptation measures in their farming. This article evaluated if farmers perceive the trends of local climate variability accurately, and was verified by the historical meteorological data analysis. Ordered probit perception models were applied in this study to determine the factors influencing the accuracy of farmer perception. It was observed that farmers’ perceptions of the rainfall amount during the early, mid, and late monsoon periods were highly accurate, and they also accurately perceived summer temperature change, but less accuracy of perception was observed of the temperate changes of the winter and monsoon seasons. Access to weekly weather information, participation in agricultural trainings, farming experience, and education level of the farmer were the major factors determining the accuracy of perception in this study. Based on the empirical results, this study suggested policy implications for (a) the locally specified weather information distribution, and (b) integration of weather information into agricultural training programs, which are available to the farming community to enhance the government implantation of the Myanmar Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy and Myanmar Climate Change Master Plan 2018–2030. |
| Keywords: | accuracy of perception; climate trend; climate variability; Myanmar; ordered probit |
| JEL: | Q12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93990&r=all |
| By: | Shida, Yoshisada |
| Abstract: | The sanctions against Russia, beginning in early 2014, provide us with a unique opportunity to study whether, and how sanctions affect a vast territorial global superpower. This study attempts to empirically examine the economic impact of this event, paying particular attention to the existence or nonexistence of its regional heterogeneity. For these purposes, this study used a dataset from a survey that asked the executive managers of Russian regional companies to assess the impact on their management activities in late 2015. The key findings are as follows. First, approximately half of those interviewed perceived the economic sanctions as having a negative impact. Second, no regional variations in the impact of the sanctions could be found. It follows that financial sanctions, aimed at an entire nation, exert a significant and geographically uniform impact. Moreover, even regional businesses near the Asia-Pacific region, holding strong connections with Asian countries, cannot avoid its impact. |
| Keywords: | economic sanctions, enterprise survey, Far East, Russian economy |
| JEL: | F51 M21 P27 |
| Date: | 2019–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93817&r=all |
| By: | Yim, Chin Shin |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to identify the cause of scandals that faced by Malaysia Airlines Berhad (MAS) in year 2001. One of the causes of this scandals is about corporate scandals. A corporate scandal means that it is involves alleged or actual unethical behavior by people acting within or on behalf of a corporation. Many recent corporate collapses and scandals have involved false or inappropriate accounting of some sort. Besides that, this study was carried out using the secondary data which was obtained from annual report for five years that is from years 1999 until year 2003. Return on asset (ROA) has been as the dependent variable to study its relationship with the independent variables such as Return on equity (ROE), Unemployment rate, Exchange rate, corporate governance index, Tobin Q and Altman Z. The enter method was used to obtain the correlation and regression result to observe significance level of the risk with the profits. And the Altman Z data is used to identify the probability of bankruptcy in this five years because of the scandals that face by MAS. Based on the result attained, the regression result show that the company of MAS might facing the bankruptcy problem in year 2000 until 2002 where the financial performance is low. While the loan of the company is higher. This causes can refers to data of ROA, ROE and Altman Z where the data of Altman Z show that in year 2002 is lower. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance Index, ROA, ROE, Altman Z, Tobin Q, Unemployment rate, Exchange rate. |
| JEL: | B22 G3 G33 |
| Date: | 2019–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93860&r=all |
| By: | Tim Johnson; Dalton Conley |
| Abstract: | Since at least T.H. Marshall, scholars have recognized military service as a form of sacrifice that warrants compensation from the state. Indeed, some see the very genesis of the modern welfare state as compensation for wartime sacrifice. War-widow pensions, expansion of the franchise, and subsidized higher education are all examples of rights and benefits “bestowed” in return for wartime mobilization. Similarly, in the U.S., governments have hired veterans preferentially for civilian public jobs as recompense for active military service. Although oft-overlooked, those policies appear influential: the percent of job holders identifying as veterans in the civilian U.S. executive branch exceeds the proportion in the wider population by several multiples. This century-old pattern suggests a significant means by which wartime mobilization has influenced the state. Yet efforts to understand it have struggled to rule out the possibility that those who serve in the armed forces are predisposed to work for the state in both military and civilian capacities (for example, preferring the stability of government employment). Here we rule out this possibility by examining whether birthdates randomly called for induction in the Vietnam-Era Selective Service Lotteries (VSSL) appear disproportionately in the population of non-sensitive personnel records of the civilian U.S. executive branch. We find that birthdates called for induction appear with unusually high frequency among employees who were draft eligible and at risk of induction, but not among other employees. This finding suggests a treatment effect from military service, thus dovetailing with the hypothesis that wartime mobilization has substantially and continually influenced who works in the contemporary administrative state. |
| JEL: | J01 J45 J48 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25859&r=all |
| By: | Larionova, Marina (Ларионова, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shelepov, Andrey (Шелепов, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sakharov, Andrey (Сахаров, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This study presents a comparative analysis of the mechanisms of raising capital, operational instruments and conditions for project support offered by the NDB, AIIB and "traditional" multilateral development banks, and makes an attempt to assess the trajectory of the new banks’ development and their role in the transformation of the global financial system. Despite the fact that the new development banks have quickly overcome the period of formation (the NDB has approved 26 projects worth USD 6.5 billion and AIIB – 31 projects worth USD 27.8 billion with an AIIB contribution of USD 6.2 billion), the needs of developing countries and emerging markets, where the deficit of infrastructure investment exceeds USD1 trillion, pose a challenge of accelerating financing and attracting private investment. The study presents the analysis of the possibilities for expanding the loan portfolios of the new development banks, mobilizing private investment, and strengthening their role in the system of multilateral development banks (MDBs). Besides, recommendations are made to strengthen Russian influence in the NDB and AIIB. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041926&r=all |
| By: | Isabelle Guérin (CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7); Magdalena Isaurralde (EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Mariam Sangaré (CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7) |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:ird-02112865&r=all |