nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2019‒05‒13
thirty-one papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Six development paths in Southeast Asia: Three plus three By Montes Manuel
  2. Asian development after the Asian Drama By Kozul-Wright Richard; Poon Daniel
  3. Earnings polarization, ethnicity, and regional perspective in Indonesia By Muttaqien Arip; Sologon Denisa; O'Donoghue Cathal
  4. Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture By Yoro Diallo; Sébastien Marchand; Etienne Espagne
  5. Memantau Risiko Makro Finansial di dalam Perekonomian Indonesia By Mansur, Alfan
  6. The interaction of institutional quality and human capital in shaping the dynamics of capital structure in Viet Nam By Santarelli Enrico; Tran Hien
  7. Study on the effect of leadership style, reward systems, and working conditions on employee work performance (case study of the state plantation of Merbau Pagar, Indonesia) By Ebenezer Aritonang, Zhon Jepri; Sadalia, Isfenti; Wibowo, Rulianda P
  8. The analysis of the influence of motivation, competence, and incentive toward employee performance at pt Sianjur resort, a housing developer of Oma Deli Medan, Indonesia By Ridwansyah, Ridwansyah; Sadalia, Isfenti; Absah, Yeni
  9. The influence of emotional intelligence on the performance of health department officers of Deli Serdang regency By Osro, Siti Aisah; Nasution, Harmein; Sadalia, Isfenti
  10. The state and development By Evans Peter; Heller Patrick
  11. Income under-reporting and tax evasion: How they impact inequality in Viet Nam By Dang Duc; La Hai
  12. Employment and development in Asia By van der Hoeven Rolph
  13. The influencing factors of turnover on nurses in private hospitals in Binjai city, Indonesia By Anugrah, Septi Utami; Nasution, Harmein; Nazaruddin, Nazaruddin
  14. Black cat, white cat: Lessons to be learned from ASEAN By Lowitt Sandy
  15. Tax-benefit microsimulation model in developing countries: A feasibility study for an extension of SOUTHMOD in Indonesia By Muttaqien Arip; Sologon Denisa; O'Donoghue Cathal
  16. Rethinking Asian Drama By Nayyar Deepak
  17. Industrial agglomeration in Myanmar By Rand John; Tarp Finn; Trifkovi? Neda; Zille Helge
  18. Agricultural and rural transformations in Asian development By Vos Rob
  19. Measuring Systemic Risk on Indonesia’s Banking System By Mansur, Alfan
  20. Innovation efforts in developing countries: The case of Vietnamese small and medium-sized enterprises By Le Son
  21. How important are management practices for the productivity of small and medium enterprises? By Demenet Axel; Hoang Quynh
  22. What Caused the Asian Currency? By Kirrane, Chris
  23. Economic Assessment of Climate Adaptation Options in Myanmar Rice-Based Farming System By Hein, Yarzar; Vijitsrikamol, Kampanat; Attavanich, Witsanu; Janekarnkij, Penporn
  24. Slack resources and innovation in Vietnamese SMEs: A behavioural, stewardship, and institutional perspective By Chieu Trinh; Nguyen Tam
  25. Tenurial security and agricultural investment : Evidence from Viet Nam By Bellemare Marc; Chua Kenn; Santamaria Julieth; Vu Khoa
  26. An Appraisal of IMF Policies to the AFC By Kirrane, Chris
  27. Economic inequality and subjective well-being across the world By D'Ambrosio Conchita; Clark Andrew
  28. Does an Oligopolistic Primary Market Matter? The Case of an Asian Housing Market By Tang, Edward Chi Ho; Leung, Charles Ka Yui; Ng, Joe Cho Yiu
  29. Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships By Hüseyin Şen; Ayşe Kaya; Savaş Kaptan; Metehan Cömert
  30. Managerial attributes and enterprise access to formal credit in Myanmar By Hansen Henrik; Rand John; Tarp Finn; Trifkovi? Neda
  31. Impact of Decentralized Electrification Projects on Sustainable Development: A Meta-Analysis By Jean-Claude Berthelemy; Arnaud Millien

  1. By: Montes Manuel
    Abstract: Six Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand) defied Gunnar Myrdal’s pessimistic prognosis in his 1968 volume, Asian Drama, regarding their prospects for development.In the past half-century, these countries raised agricultural productivity faster than population growth and displayed sufficient state capability to direct change towards a respectable level of industrial development. In this period, the contrasts in achievements among the six countries can be understood from the variations in their initial conditions, socio-political contexts, international relations, and economic policies.These contrasts are investigated across four areas: agriculture, industry, foreign trade and investment, and social development. By using a more socially grounded analytical approach à la Myrdal, it is possible to understand how unorthodox economic policies have been effective in overcoming developmental disadvantages. However, shortfalls in social development could make further progress difficult in the future.
    Keywords: Poverty reduction,Trade,Agricultural productivity,Industrial policy,Investments, Foreign
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Kozul-Wright Richard; Poon Daniel
    Abstract: Inspired by Gunnar Myrdal’s core concepts discussed in his seminal work, Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations, published in 1968, this paper analyses the opening-up experiences of three Asian countries (China, India, and Malaysia) by triangulating between the following:(i) the orientation of selected policy tools in trade, technology, investment, and finance in shaping a country’s degree of economic openness;(ii) the rational coordination of operational controls of these policy tools to achieve stated objectives; and(iii) the overall development trends observed in the Asia region. The ‘rational coordination of operational controls’ is interpreted with reference to the strategic use of selected policy tools in the historically successful cases of earlier East Asian industrialization.Under this framework, the paper contends that divergence in Asian growth experiences can be understood by variations in institutional capabilities to address market and firm-level (and government) failures in the catch-up process, and the pragmatic experimentation by policymakers in search of more effective institutional mechanisms—carrots, sticks, and competitive pressures—in pursuit of desired development outcomes.
    Keywords: Capabilities,Economic openness,Gunnar Myrdal,Operational controls,Strategic integration,Industrialization
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Muttaqien Arip; Sologon Denisa; O'Donoghue Cathal
    Abstract: Recently, quantitative methods have been increasingly used in ethnicity research, which traditionally has relied mainly on qualitative methods. However, quantitative studies on ethnicity in Indonesia are scarce, even though the country has more than 600 ethnic groups living across some 17 thousand islands and a history of ethnic conflicts in several regions.This study aims to address the earnings polarization in Indonesia, which is interwoven with social problems, ethnic conflicts, and social tensions. In particular, we examine the impact of ethnic diversity on earnings polarization in the Indonesian labour market using Re-centered Influence Function regression approach.With considering additional covariates, the results show that regional characteristics are more important than ethnicity. Finally, ethnicity becomes not significant anymore by including the interaction effect between ethnicity and regional characteristics.
    Keywords: Earnings inequality,Ethnicity,Regional characteristics
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Yoro Diallo (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sébastien Marchand (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Etienne Espagne (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech, AFD - Agence française de développement, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine farm household-level impacts of weather extreme events on Vietnamese rice technical efficiency. Vietnam is considered among the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and the Vietnamese economy is highly dependent on rice production that is strongly affected by climate change. A stochastic frontier analysis is applied with census panel data and weather data from 2010 to 2014 to estimate these impacts while controlling for both adaptation strategy and household characteristics. Also, this study combines these estimated marginal effects with future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to project the potential impact of hot temperatures in 2050 on rice technical efficiency. We find that weather shocks measured by the occurrence of floods, typhoons and droughts negatively affect technical efficiency. Also, additional days with a temperature above 31°C dampen technical efficiency and the negative effect is increasing with temperature. For instance, a one day increase in the bin [33°C-34°C] ([35°C and more]) lessen technical efficiency between 6.84 (2.82) and 8.05 (3.42) percentage points during the dry (wet) season.
    Keywords: Weather shocks,Technical efficiency,Rice farming,Vietnam
    Date: 2019–03–22
  5. By: Mansur, Alfan
    Abstract: This paper adopts model of MCM Spidergram: Macro Financial Environment Tool (Ms Muffet) developed by the IMF as an analytical tool for assessment of risks and macro-financial conditions which affect Indonesian financial system stability. This model comprises 68 indicators merged into 6 composite indices reflecting 4 risks and 2 macro-financial conditions. The results show that this model perform well in signaling building up risks of instability in the Indonesian financial system during period of 2015 – 2016. Therefore, this model can be a valuable tool complementary to existing tools used to gauge Indonesian financial system stability. In addition, this model is also be able to cover a number of drawbacks arising in the previous models to measure financial system stability.
    Keywords: Financial system stability, Ms Muffet, risks, macro-�financial conditions
    JEL: E20 F30 F41 G10 G30
    Date: 2017–11–28
  6. By: Santarelli Enrico; Tran Hien
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to find which of two theories of capital structure—trade-off theory or pecking order theory—best explains the capital structure decision of non-state firms during the post-transition process in Viet Nam. We also investigate the effect of human capital, institutional quality, and their interaction on the capital structure decision. For empirical evidence, we use a unique database provided by the CIEM-DANIDA project covering around 2,000 micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises in Viet Nam for each year from 2003 to 2014. We estimate our empirical models by employing the System Generalized Method of Moments estimator.Our findings suggest that the capital structure of Vietnamese firms is a balance between the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. On one hand, accessing formal debts is extremely tough for young and non-state firms; they bootstrap themselves out of financial constraints by stretching and making the most of their internal resources and assets. On the other hand, those with access to formal sources take advantage of leverage tools from using formal loans to exploit the tax benefits against the costs of financial distress.Other noteworthy findings include: (i) profitability and debt tax shields are no longer significantly important when entrepreneurs adopt informal debt financing; (ii) high-quality institutions with transparent and fair credit rationing rules will enable firms to reduce their reliance on debt financing; and (iii) while human capital encourages entrepreneurs to obtain more loans, its interaction with institutional quality deters debt financing and favours other financial sources.
    Keywords: Pecking order theory,Trade-off theory,Capital Structure,Debts,Institutional quality,Human capital
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Ebenezer Aritonang, Zhon Jepri; Sadalia, Isfenti; Wibowo, Rulianda P
    Abstract: The purpose of this study was to observe the influence of leadership style, reward system, working conditions on the work performance of employees of The State Plantation of Merbau Pagar, Indonesia. The samples obtained were 105 respondents, according to the above objectives, this study was formulated using respondent testing, hypothesis testing and questionnaire testing. Data collection techniques used in this study consisted of observations, interviews (interviews), questionnaires and documentation studies in the form of primary and secondary data. To facilitate problem solving, this research was carried out using a linear regression analysis method with the help of SPSS 23. The results of the study showed that, 1) Simultaneously leadership style, reward system and working conditions significantly influence work performance, 2) partially each each factor of the leadership style variable, reward system and working conditions have a significant effect on Work performance, 3) the results of the partial regression analysis indicate that the value of the working conditions factor is the most dominant factor in Work Performance.
    Keywords: Leadership Style; Reward System; Working Conditions; Work performance;
    JEL: A30 D21 J81 L25 M51
    Date: 2018–10
  8. By: Ridwansyah, Ridwansyah; Sadalia, Isfenti; Absah, Yeni
    Abstract: This research aims to find out the influence of motivation, competence, and incentive variables toward employee performance. Population of this research is all employees of PT. Sianjur Resort, Medan, Indonesia that is, 37 people. The sample is selected using total population sampling method. The data is collected using questionnaires, while it is analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. The research results prove that motivation, competence, and incentive simultaneously give significant influence toward employee performance. Motivation, competence, and incentive partially give significant influence toward employee performance. It is recommended that PT. Sianjur Resort pay more attention to aspects that can increase employee performance such as giving incentive regularly and fairly so that there is no negative perception among employees about discriminative behaviour by the employer in term of giving incentive. It is also suggested that PT. Sianjur Resort’s employees increase their performance based on motivation, competence, and incentive that have been given, such as increasing self-competence without waiting for the command from the employer, so self-performance can be more increased.
    Keywords: Motivation; competence; incentive; employee performance;
    JEL: J83 M51 O15 Q31
    Date: 2018–09
  9. By: Osro, Siti Aisah; Nasution, Harmein; Sadalia, Isfenti
    Abstract: Employee performance is the responsibility of employees to their work and the results achieved by the employees in performing the job given to them either in quantity or quality within a certain time. The goals of employee performance are to adjust employee expectation with organizational goals. Incompatibility between efforts to achieve employee performance goals with organizational goals will result in poor performance. Employee performance is influenced by internal and external factors. One of the internal factors that affect employee performance is emotional intelligence. This research analyzed the influence of emotional intelligence which consists of self-awareness, self-regulation, motivation, empathy and social skills on the performance of the Officer of Health Department of Deli Serdang Regency, North Sumatera, Indonesia. The type of this research was causal research with cross-sectional study design. The subjects of this research were Civil Servants working in the Health Department of Deli Serdang Regency who occupied operative positions or staff of 100 people. The sampling used data were collected through interviews, questionnaires distribution and literature study. The data were analyzed using a multiple linear regression model, hypothesis and testing was done by using T-test and F-test. This research was conducted at the Health Department of Deli Serdang Regency, North Sumatera Province, Indonesia. The result showed that emotional intelligence which had a significant influence on the performance of Health Service Officers of Deli Serdang Regency was motivation and social skill. The results of the T-test showed that the emotional intelligence: self-awareness, self-regulation, motivation, empathy and social skills simultaneously had a positive influence on the performance of the Health Department officers of Deli Serdang Regency. The results of the -test concluded that emotional intelligence: motivation and social skills had a positive and significant influence on the performance of the Health Department officers of Deli Serdang Regency. Emotional intelligence consisting of self-awareness, self-regulation, motivation, empathy and social skills had a positive and significant influence on the performance improvement of the Health Department officers of Deli Serdang Regency. The higher the emotional intelligence of the Health Department officers of Deli Serdang Regency, the better the employee performance, the lower the emotional intelligence, the lower the performance of the employees.
    Keywords: self-awareness; self-regulation; motivation; empathy; social Skills; employee Performance;
    JEL: G18 H11 M38 M48 P47
    Date: 2018–09
  10. By: Evans Peter; Heller Patrick
    Abstract: Using a comparative frame that draws on the variation of developmental trajectories in Asia from Northeast Asia to China to Southeast Asia and to India, this paper explores the changing role of the state in these countries and the contributions that the analysis of the Asian state has made to general theoretical understandings of the role states can play in promoting economic and social transformation.The emergence and evolution of the concept of the ‘developmental state’ is a central focus. The ambiguous relation between the developmental state and the politics of representation and redistribution is a second central concern. Building on region-wide comparative analysis, we examine how state structures and possibilities for state action in Asia have been shaped by geo-political context and colonial heritage.We analyse the ways in which development, defined as enhanced well-being and human flourishing, and democracy, defined as accountability to the deliberatively constructed goals of society, have been facilitated or frustrated by state structures and state action. We consider what general lessons the comparative history of the Asian state offers for development theory and policy possibilities.
    Keywords: Redistribution,State,Democracy
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Dang Duc; La Hai
    Abstract: Personal income tax is attracting more attention from the Vietnamese government, which has been looking for a way to reinforce its budget revenue.Although this tax plays an increasing role, representing 7.3 per cent of the revenue expected in 2018, this figure is still small, suggesting an issue of tax evasion and ineffective tax policy.Using the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Surveys 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 and the expenditure-based approach pioneered by Pissarides and Weber, this paper first applies the non-linear least squares method to distinguish under-declaration rates for various income sources, and then uses a static microsimulation SOUTHMOD model to estimate the impact of income under-reporting on the scale of tax evasion and income inequality of Viet Nam.The paper finds that the officially reported income only accounts for 80 per cent of the true income, leaving 20 per cent unreported. Consequently, without income under-reporting, tax revenue in Viet Nam would increase by about VND23,000 billion (equivalent to US$1.0 3 billion) and the Gini coefficient for disposable income would increase from 0.379 to 0.409.
    Keywords: Tax evasion,Income inequality,Income under-reporting,permanent income,SOUTHMOD
    Date: 2018
  12. By: van der Hoeven Rolph
    Abstract: How have economic development, employment, and labour markets in Asian countries interacted since the publication of Myrdal’s Asian Drama?Myrdal rejected, the western approach to and definition of employment and emphasized the role of ‘informal’ employment, but he underestimated the effects of the Lewisian development process.In fast-growing countries with better labour market development, initial conditions have played a role, though less than Myrdal predicted. Myrdal’s concept of cumulative causation better explains how fast-growing countries with better labour markets have developed. These countries have pursued a developmental state and applied interventionist policies in agriculture, industry, and macroeconomics, as well as in social policies and in strengthening the position of women in the labour market.Successful countries are also characterized by initial low-income inequality and targeted redistribution of factors of production. For some countries, though, growing inequality together with other development challenges can, if not attended to, become a problem in the future.
    Keywords: Economic growth,Income distribution,Labor,Productivity,Employment,Macroeconomic policy,Human capital
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Anugrah, Septi Utami; Nasution, Harmein; Nazaruddin, Nazaruddin
    Abstract: In Indonesia, turnover in hospital employees often occurs in private hospitals. Some private hospitals in Binjai city, find some obstacles in human resources because the turnover rate on nurses is quite high. Almost all hospitals have an average turnover rate above 10% every year and it is increasing. Basically, there are no hospitals can avoid the turnover, however, if the high turnover rate is immediately declined, it is feared to be able to interrupt the service to patients, and becomes a problem for the hospital as a whole. The purpose of this study is to determine the influencing factors of turnover on nurses at Private Hospitals in Binjai City, Indonesia. This research is categorized as Correlational Research. The population of this research was the nurses who have made a turnover and are working in private hospitals in Binjai City. There were 60 respondents taken as the sample of research. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression test. The results showed that there are simultaneously and significant effect on the following variables; job satisfaction; working environment has positive and significant effect; organizational commitment has positive and significant effect on turnover on nurses in private hospital nurses in Binjai city. Based on these results, the most influencing factor on turnover on nurses is job satisfaction.
    Keywords: Nurses; Turnover; Job Satisfaction;
    JEL: D91 I11 J28 J62 N35
    Date: 2018–09
  14. By: Lowitt Sandy
    Abstract: There is general agreement at present that the Southern African Development Community needs to re-imagine itself and breathe new life into its somewhat moribund structure.The European Union is often presented as the textbook example to be followed by other regional associations—a rules-based, heavily bureaucratic, and powerful supranational institutional structure to which individual nations have ceded sovereignty in several spheres (most notably the economy). At the other end of the integration spectrum sits the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Based on Confucian values and culture, it emphasizes harmony, group above individual, and pragmatism above rules.In this paper, some of the key elements of the Association and its operationalization are considered, not as recommendations or a systematic alternative guide to reconsidering the conceptual basis of the Southern African Development Community’s regional integration efforts, but simply as a potential catalyst for discussion and thinking about problems from a different perspective.
    Keywords: regional associations,Regional integration,SADC,ASEAN
    Date: 2019
  15. By: Muttaqien Arip; Sologon Denisa; O'Donoghue Cathal
    Abstract: This study aims to expand the use of tax-benefit microsimulation tools in Indonesia. In particular, it reviews the feasibility of expanding SOUTHMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model being applied in developing countries that was developed based on the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation tool (EUROMOD) framework.First, the study reviews the tax and benefits system in Indonesia, followed by an explanation of possible data set and data requirements for simulation. Two potential sources of data are the fifth round of the Indonesia Family Life Survey and the National Socio-Economic Survey.Despite advantages and disadvantages to each, the results of the feasibility study show that both data sets could support the extension of the microsimulation model. This extension should be adjusted to the conditions of the data. For instance, we can focus on simulating indirect taxes, which are more relevant as they represent one of the core revenue sources in developing countries.
    Keywords: microsimulation,SOUTHMOD,Tax-benefit microsimulation,EUROMOD
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Nayyar Deepak
    Abstract: Gunnar Myrdal published Asian Drama in 1968, a work which made important analytical contributions to our understanding of development but was deeply pessimistic about Asia’s future prospects.Since then, contrary to Myrdal’s expectations, Asia’s development has been remarkable, although transformations have been uneven across countries and unequal between people.This paper explains the conception and design of the UNU-WIDER study on Asian Transformations, which seeks to analyse the amazing story of economic development in Asia over the past 50 years. It begins with reflections on Gunnar Myrdal, the author, and rethinking Asian Drama, the book, in retrospect 50 years later. It goes on to outline the rationale and objective of the study.It then discusses some critical issues and lessons that emerge—diversity in development, history and context, economic growth and structural change, wellbeing of people, markets and governments, economic openness, and institutions and policies—to serve as a teaser.It concludes with some brief reflections on Asia’s future prospects over the next 25 years.
    Keywords: Gunnar Myrdal,Transformation,History (Economics)
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Rand John; Tarp Finn; Trifkovi? Neda; Zille Helge
    Abstract: Focusing on labour productivity and working conditions, we investigate the benefits of industrial zones for private manufacturing enterprises in Myanmar.We find that being located in an industrial zone associates with higher labour productivity. Value added gains, however, are not transferred to employees. The results are robust to different measures of productivity and model specifications, as well as to controlling for the natural level of industrial agglomeration in a particular location.The findings in general indicate additional benefits of planned industrial activities as opposed to naturally driven industrial clustering.
    Keywords: Working conditions,Agglomeration,industrial zones
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Vos Rob
    Abstract: Over the past sixty years, most Asian countries have undergone relatively rapid agricultural transformations that helped jumpstart broader economic development. However, the changes have differed markedly in nature and speed across countries of the region.In much of East and Southeast Asia, the Green Revolution brought a quantum leap in yields of staple crops. Agricultural productivity growth facilitated labour exit and savings transfers, which helped jumpstart industrial growth and urbanization, which in turn induced deeper agrarian change and food system transformations.In South Asia, these transformative changes have lagged in part because of structural hurdles to agrarian change signalled by Gunnar Myrdal in his seminal book Asian Drama of 1968. More recently, South Asian economies also managed to overcome most of those obstacles, inducing accelerated growth of both agriculture and non-agricultural sectors.Vast challenges of still widespread poverty and food insecurity in this part of Asia remain. These challenges remain in a context of relatively advanced urbanization, strongly changed dietary patterns and agri-food systems, and pressing environmental constraints.Consequently, as this paper argues, moving forward, the role and nature of agricultural transformations and structural change in forging economic growth and poverty reduction in still disadvantaged regions of Asia will need to be different as well.
    Keywords: Agricultural productivity,Food policy,structural change,Rural development
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Mansur, Alfan
    Abstract: Inter-connectedness is one important aspect of measuring the degree of systemic risk arising in the banking system. In this paper, this aspect together with the degree of commonality and volatility are measured using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), dynamic Granger causality tests and a Markov regime switching model. These measures can be used as leading indicators to detect pressures in the financial system, in particular, the banking system. There is evidence that the inter-connectedness level together with a degree of commonality and volatility among banks escalate substantially during the financial distress. It implies that less systemically important banks could become more important in the financial system during abnormal times. Therefore, the list of systemically important banks regulated in the Law on Prevention and Mitigation of Financial System Crisis (UU PPKSK) should be updated more frequently during the period of financial distress.
    Keywords: Inter-connectedness, systemic risk, Principal Component Analysis, Granger causality, regime switching.
    JEL: C32 C38 G21
    Date: 2018–01–19
  20. By: Le Son
    Abstract: The identification of potential innovation efforts plays an important role in evaluating the innovation process. The innovation efforts of firms in developing countries might be different to those of Western enterprises.This paper evaluates innovation processes in developing countries, especially the relationship between innovation efforts and outcomes. Instead of capturing only investment in research and development as in Western firms, the innovation efforts of firms in developing countries include investments in in-house research and development, technology acquisition, and other informal innovation activities.This research develops a mechanism to capture all innovation efforts based on firms’ characteristics, market features, and business environment. A predicted value of innovation investment is created which is intended to capture observed and latent innovation efforts.The results show that predicted innovation investment triggers innovation outcomes (jointly, product and process innovation outcomes) in the context of Vietnamese small- and medium-sized enterprises.
    Keywords: Small and medium enterprises,Developing countries,Innovation
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Demenet Axel; Hoang Quynh
    Abstract: Is the lack of ‘managerial capital’, alongside human and financial capital, a constraint on the growth of firms in developing countries? The evidence on this is still mixed, especially among small and medium enterprises.This paper uses a panel of Vietnamese small and medium enterprises to investigate this question. We build a multidimensional measure of managerial capital, combining both practices and attitudes, and link it with consistent estimates of firm-level productivity and mark-up. Even though bias may still affect the estimation of the overall influence of managerial capital on productivity, we show that there is a positive and significant association.Changes in management practices allow firms to be more efficient. Furthermore, we compare this association by firm size, and show that managerial capital is arguably as important for micro and small firms as it is for medium firms. Finally, it appears that the indicators related to ‘entrepreneurial attitudes’ play a more important role than elementary business skills.
    Keywords: Small and medium enterprises,Informal sector (Economics),Entrepreneurship
    Date: 2018
  22. By: Kirrane, Chris
    Abstract: This particular paper attempts to answer a few questions: Does global finance in general and state and international monetary as well as financial institutions cause financial as well as economic instability for nations around the world? Is it possible to prevent the advantages of increased access to international funds markets from being reduced and even reversed by global and national monetary and financial crises. Are existing national currencies outdated?
    Keywords: Financial crisis
    Date: 2018–04
  23. By: Hein, Yarzar; Vijitsrikamol, Kampanat; Attavanich, Witsanu; Janekarnkij, Penporn
    Abstract: Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate change and understandings how the adaptation options improve the farming household’s adaptive capacity are critical to the agricultural policies. The study was carried out for the economic assessment of climate adaption options in rice-based farming system of Myanmar. The propensity score matching approach was applied to explore the existing adaptation options and its contribution on the farm income. In addition, the binary probit model was used to analyse the factors influencing those adaptation decisions. The erratic rainfall, especially dry spell period and unexpected rain during the critical crop growth, was the critical challenge of rice-based farming in the study. The timely operation of farm machineries was one of the major adaptation options for the farmers, followed by other options such as use of more agrochemicals and changing rice varieties including early maturity, high yielding and stress tolerant varieties. The combination of those adaptations gave additional 0.86-0.89 ton/ha yield, 152-158 USD/ha total return and 108-124 USD/ha profit to the adapter farmers. The institutional factors such as irrigation access, access to credit, access to weekly weather information and participation to agricultural training were critically important to the adaptation decision. Moreover, the social capital factors like farming experience, farm size and farm income share were also major influencing variables.
    Keywords: climate adaptation, economic impact, Myanmar, propensity score matching, rice-based farming
    JEL: C52 O13 Q12 Q54
    Date: 2019–01
  24. By: Chieu Trinh; Nguyen Tam
    Abstract: Slack resources are usually identified as an endogenous motivation for firms’ innovation. Still, it is crucial to assess the importance of slack in supporting innovation, especially in different institutional contexts.Therefore, the paper investigates the relationship by exploring a longitudinal dataset of 15,589 observations from about 2,500 surveyed manufacturing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Viet Nam. The analysis reveals that slack resources promote innovation in different ways.While the financial slack harms the efforts of introducing innovation, the presence of human resource slack encourages firms to engage more in innovation activities resulting in the introduction of new products or business processes.We further found that for firms located in a more favourable business environment the impact of human resource slack on innovation is less pronounced whereas the negative impact of financial slack is lessened. The above results enrich the current literature on the relationship between slack and innovation within an institutional context in emerging economies.
    Keywords: Slack,SMEs,Stewardship theory,Institutional economics,Behavioural Theory,Innovation,Institutional economics theory
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Bellemare Marc; Chua Kenn; Santamaria Julieth; Vu Khoa
    Abstract: In Viet Nam, all lands belong to the state, who assigns usufruct rights to those lands to individuals and households. In 1993, the state gave 20-year usufruct rights to growers of annual crops, and 50-year usufruct rights to growers of perennial crops.In 2013, as the usufruct rights of growers of annual crops were set to expire, the Vietnamese government passed a law—the Land Law of 2013—that extended the usufruct rights of all landowners by 50 years. We exploit this largely unanticipated shock to study the effect of the Land Law of 2013 on the investment behaviour of growers of annual crops.Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the Land Law of 2013 is associated with a higher likelihood of investment in irrigation technology or soil and water conservation, but not other types of investment.Our results are robust to controlling for endogenous switching from annual to perennial crops, and our data support the parallel trends assumption. Our results also suggest that the long-term effects of the Land Law of 2013 are larger than its short-term effects.
    Date: 2018
  26. By: Kirrane, Chris
    Abstract: The IMF Fund is now centred on crisis prevention and supervision}, particularly in developing as well as transition countries. While confirming that the IMF as a focal point of the international financial system, the Asian crisis tends to illustrate the limits, or excesses, associated with its action. A redefinition of its role along with its mandate seems necessary.
    Keywords: Financial crisis, IMF
    JEL: F33
    Date: 2017–07–05
  27. By: D'Ambrosio Conchita; Clark Andrew
    Abstract: We here use repeated cross-section data from the Afrobarometer, Asianbarometer Latinobarometer, and Eurobarometer to analyse the variables that are correlated with both current and future evaluations of standards of living. These are related not only to an individual’s own economic resources but also to the country distribution of resources.We consider resource comparisons (the gap in resources between richer and poorer individuals) and the normative evaluation of distribution (conditional on these gaps), given by the Gini coefficient. The ‘typical’ pattern of a negative effect of gaps on the better-off but a positive effect of gaps on the worse-off is found only in Europe: gaps for the better-off in Africa and Central and Latin America have no correlation with current life evaluations and are associated with more positive expectations of the future.Equally, there is no positive estimated coefficient for gaps to the worse-off in Asia. The Gini coefficient is negatively correlated with current life evaluation only in Asia, and is insignificant everywhere else. On the contrary, future life evaluations are more positive in more unequal countries in Africa and Central and Latin America.The relationship between the distribution of resources and measures of individual well-being over time is far from universal.
    Keywords: Relative deprivation,WIID,Baromters,Gini coefficient,Inequality,Living conditions
    Date: 2018
  28. By: Tang, Edward Chi Ho; Leung, Charles Ka Yui; Ng, Joe Cho Yiu
    Abstract: This paper takes advantage of the oligopolistic structure of the Hong Kong primary housing market and examines whether the time-variations of the market concentration are caused by or cause the variations of the local economic factors. The analysis also takes into consideration of the changes of the U.S. variables and commodity prices, which arguably may represent changes in the construction cost. We find clear evidence of time-varying responses of housing market variables to macroeconomic variables. Policy implications and directions for future research are also discussed.
    Keywords: Oligopoly, market share, Herfindahl index, macroeconomic variables, dynamic factor model, Time-Varying Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR
    JEL: E30 L12 L85 R31
    Date: 2018–06
  29. By: Hüseyin Şen (AYBU - Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University); Ayşe Kaya; Savaş Kaptan; Metehan Cömert
    Abstract: This study attempts to establish the possible existence of the long-run interrelationship between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in five fragile emerging market economies (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey), what is so-called by Morgan Stanley ‘Fragile Five'. To do so, we utilize Li and Lee's (2010) Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) test for threshold cointegration and apply it to sample countries' monthly time-series data from 2013:1 to 2018:12. Overall, our primary results are threefold: First, there seems to be a long-run positive relationship between inflation rates and nominal interest rates supporting the validity of the Fisher hypothesis for all the sample countries. Second, sample countries' data supports the existence of a cointegration relationship between interest rates and exchange rates for the case of Brazil, India, and Turkey but not for the case of Indonesia and South Africa. Lastly, without exception, exchange rates and inflation in all countries examined tend to co-move in the long-run, implying that increases in exchange rates affect inflation through raising the prices of foreign goods imported into the sample countries. The results above are widely compatible with theoretical expectations and with the results of the most previous empirical studies on the long-run interrelationships between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in the literature.
    Keywords: Macroeconomic policy,emerging market economies.,macroeconomic policy management,autoregressive distributed lag,threshold cointegration,emerging market economies
    Date: 2019–04–10
  30. By: Hansen Henrik; Rand John; Tarp Finn; Trifkovi? Neda
    Abstract: Using data from a new survey of small and medium-sized enterprises in Myanmar, we analyse enterprise demand for formal credit and the extent to which they are constrained in the formal credit market. We account for firms self-selecting out of the credit market in Myanmar.Our data contain information about individual firm owner/manager gender, managerial capacity, and attitude towards risk. We use this information to test whether the allocation of scarce loanable funds is systematically associated with these attributes. It emerges that managerial capacity and risk attitudes are positively associated with the probability of firms demanding credit, while firms with female owner/managers have lower probabilities of demanding credit. On the supply side we find no discernible links to any of the three traits, whereas firm’s size and age have substantial impacts on the probability of obtaining credit. As such, the allocation of credit could improve
    Keywords: Personality traits,SMEs,Access to credit,formal credit,Gender
    Date: 2019
  31. By: Jean-Claude Berthelemy (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Arnaud Millien (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: This paper is the first product of a project which aims to build a Collaborative Smart Mapping of Mini-grid Action (CoSMMA), whose principal objective is to identify best practice in decentralized electrification projects. Using evaluations of 421 projects, from published research papers, we built a pilot CoSMMA which proves its feasibility. Its relevance is demonstrated by a meta-analysis, which reveals the principal characteristics of decentralized electrification projects which have positive impacts on sustainable development. Four main characteristics were considered: technology (source or energy), system size (power), decision level (from local to country level) geographic location. When searching for best practices, technology and system size must be considered together, because the chosen technology may constrain the power, which is provided by the system. We find that the most popular projects, which are based on Solar Home Systems (SHS) are not the most effective. The problem with SHS is not the use of solar energy, but the small system size often chosen for SHS. Mini-grids, of larger size, especially those which use hybrid renewable sources of energy, have more positive impacts, because these systems combine the benefits of sustainability and flexibility. In terms of decision level, we find that both top-down and bottom-up approaches have advantages, with the observation of a U-shaped curve for the influence of the decision level on the probability of obtaining positive impacts. Geographical location matters, as it is very often the key to system feasibility. We find that DEPs are more effective in Latin America than in Asia, and more effective in Asia than in Africa. We also attempted to study the type of effects resulting from DEPs. Descriptive data suggest that for some types of effects, positive impacts are more likely than for others. Decentralized electrification projects have a more positive impact on Lifestyle & NICT or Household agenda than on Economic transformation or Community life. However, this pilot CoSMMA does not contain enough information to study precisely the types of effects, because some types of effects have not been studied frequently in the existing literature. This is the case, for instance, for environmental effects, which have been rarely measured scientifically. Finally, we attempted to broaden our information set by including expert data, which was entered into the CoSMMA meta-analysis. We define expert data as data that are not supported by statistical tests with measures of significance, whereas the evaluations based on scientific data were supported by statistical tests of significance. The expert data may be valid, but our attempt to include it in the analysis failed at this stage. The determinants of unproven effects appear to be quite different from the determinants of proven effects in our meta-analysis, and using expert data would imply merging proven and unproven effects, which would totally blur the conclusions.
    Keywords: decentralized electrification,sustainable developement,impact assessment,meta-analysis,méta-analyse,électrification décentralisée,développement durable,évaluation d'impact
    Date: 2018–12

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