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on South East Asia |
| By: | Anna Falentina; Budy Resosudarmo |
| Abstract: | Reliability of electricity supply is one of pressing challenges to many micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in developing countries. MSEs play a pivotal role in employment generation in these countries, but productivity of MSEs is relatively low. Little is known about how blackouts affect performance of MSEs. This paper is the first study to estimate the impact of power blackouts on productivity of manufacturing MSEs and to discuss the role of the government in addressing problem. We employ a pseudo-panel dataset covering six firm cohorts within 21 Indonesian national electricity company working areas from 2010 to 2015. Our identification strategy involves first examining blackouts determinants and then using these determinants as instruments in an IV dynamic panel fixed effects estimation while controlling for factors potentially affect productivity and correlated with blackouts. We find that electricity blackouts reduce the average labor productivity and the resultant loss amounts to approximately IDR 71.5 billion (USD 4.91 million) per year in Indonesia. Therefore, it is crucial to improve electricity supply reliability in developing countries. We find that introducing a captive generator as a way to cope with power outages, is positively associated with productivity, and MSEs that have captive generators benefit more when the power supply is poor. Our findings will assist policy makers to prioritize addressing power blackouts relative to other constraints MSEs face. |
| Keywords: | micro and small enterprises, power blackouts, productivity, captive generators, pseudo-panel data analysis |
| JEL: | H54 L53 L94 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2019-01&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) in Apia, Samoa during November 19–30, 2018. This was a follow-up to the initial mission (April 2018) under the Project to Improve ESS in the Asia–Pacific Region, funded by the Government of Japan and managed by the IMF’s Statistics Department (IMF-STA) and the IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT). |
| Date: | 2019–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/86&r=all |
| By: | idris, rafiq |
| Abstract: | In an effort to explore new economic window, there was a suggestion to further integrate the economies in Borneo island by improving connectivity. Road connectivity with Kalimantan has been proposed as having the potential to further stimulate Sabah’s economic growth. One of the suggestions was to have road from Serudong to Simanggaris from Malaysia’s side of Sabah. In the context of Sabah, several questions arise: how does this benefit the state? Should there be additional efforts to connect Sabah and Kalimantan via road? Should Sabah spend money to improve logistical connectivity with Kalimantan? This chapter discusses briefly the latest proposal in recent years to establish a road connectivity with North Kalimantan, by estimating the effect of common border when having good road on export. Generally, there are limited studies assesses the impact of Sabah-Kalimantan Road Connectivity from Sabah’s perspective. The study uses gravity model. The regression results indicate that common border is positively linked to trade of Malaysia for the period under investigation. Similarly, it is expected that the road connectivity with Kalimantan is projected to increase Malaysia's and Sabah's export. This study shall give an overview and fill in the literature gap by providing an estimation of the common border effect through road connectivity in the context of Sabah-Kalimantan further economic integration. |
| Keywords: | Sabah, Kalimantan, Common Border, Effect, Export |
| JEL: | F10 F14 R4 |
| Date: | 2018–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92991&r=all |
| By: | Dinda, Soumyananda |
| Abstract: | This paper examines empirical relationships, analyses determinants of CFGT trade in the pre-crisis period and predict bilateral trade flows using the gravity model in Asia. Income level, geographical distance, and developmental position of both trading partners, and country characteristics, economic policy reforms and available infrastructure are important determinants of CFGT trade and its sub-categories. Through trade gap, this paper estimates the value of trade opportunity of CFGT in Asia, identifies potential trading partners, and also suggests CFGT trade among the trade partners. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model, potential trade opportunity, CFGT, CCT, EEL, WE, SPVS, SAARC, ASEAN, APTA, Asia |
| JEL: | C20 C5 C54 O3 O53 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93238&r=all |
| By: | Bullard, James B. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | In Singapore, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed the surprisingly strong performance of the U.S. economy relative to projections made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the first half of 2017. A key consequence of this growth surprise, Bullard said, is that it has allowed the FOMC to normalize its policy rate along a projected path, with attendant consequences for global financial markets. He added that a continuation of the growth surprise likely requires faster U.S. productivity growth. |
| Date: | 2018–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlps:323&r=all |
| By: | Shoji, Masahiro; Takafuji, Yoko; Harada, Tetsuya |
| Abstract: | Although children are exposed to a high mortality risk during disasters, what determines their disaster response, especially during earthquakes, remains largely unexplored. The goal of this study is to examine the association between formal education and earthquake response. Using a unique survey collected from elementary school students in the coastal villages of Indonesia, we show that students’ attitude to learning science is positively associated with their risk perception, perceived coping ability, knowledge about the disaster mechanism and response, and propensity to respond appropriately. Parents’ disaster experience also significantly affects these outcomes. In contrast, attitude to religious class explains none of outcomes. Locus of control is associated with perception and knowledge, but not the response. Our findings suggest that the effects of education on the disaster mortality of children could vary with the school curriculum. |
| Keywords: | formal education; disaster response; earthquake; children; locus of control; Indonesia |
| JEL: | I25 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93250&r=all |
| By: | Tien Manh Vu (Asian Growth Research Institute); Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | We examined the effects of Vietnamese enterprise zones on local businesses based on different patterns of place-based policies as well as the ownership structure of the zone infrastructure developers (ZIDs). We constructed a panel of communes during 2000-2007 using a census survey of firms having more than nine employees and a census of zones and zone-based firms. We found that place-based policies led to growth in the number of jobs and firms in the communes where enterprise zones were located, even after excluding zone-based firms. Our findings also suggest that privately owned ZIDs worked best under corporate-tax incentives, while zones with a designated central government agency as the ZID had adverse spillover effects on business development in neighboring communes of the same district. |
| Keywords: | Enterprise zone, Place-based policy, Infrastructure, Private sector, Local business development |
| JEL: | O14 O25 L53 |
| Date: | 2019–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2019-008&r=all |
| By: | Nith, Kosal; Ly, Singhong |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analysis to identify the factor constraining on Cambodian agriculture in transforming from extensive to intensive agriculture. The objective of this study was to examine the general situation of Cambodian agriculture by comparing with neighboring countries in Southeast Asia from a period of 22 years (1996 – 2018) through cultivate areas, technical using, technologies using, fertilizer using, agricultural infrastructure system, agricultural production cost, agricultural output, agricultural market and climate change. The results show that the Cambodian agriculture sector is still at a level where there is significant need to improve the capacity of farmers, the new technologies use and the prevention of climate change. However, the production cost is still high cost and agricultural output has been in low prices. It also causes for farmers to lose confidence in farming and they will be stop working in the sector. Moreover, we also have other policies to improve agriculture sector in Cambodia. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Development, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Technology, Intensive Farming, Farmer Education |
| JEL: | F13 O13 Q13 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2018–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93086&r=all |
| By: | Nith, Kosal; Ly, Singhong |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analysis to identify the factor constraining on Cambodian agriculture in transforming from extensive to intensive agriculture. The objective of this study was to examine the general situation of Cambodian agriculture by comparing with neighboring countries in Southeast Asia from a period of 22 years (1996 – 2018) through cultivate areas, technical using, technologies using, fertilizer using, agricultural infrastructure system, agricultural production cost, agricultural output, agricultural market and climate change. The results show that the Cambodian agriculture sector is still at a level where there is significant need to improve the capacity of farmers, the new technologies use and the prevention of climate change. However, the production cost is still high cost and agricultural output has been in low prices. It also causes for farmers to lose confidence in farming and they will be stop working in the sector. Moreover, we also have other policies to improve agriculture sector in Cambodia. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Development, Agricultural Policy, Agricultural Technology, Intensive Farming, Farmer Education |
| JEL: | F13 O13 Q13 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2018–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93091&r=all |
| By: | Nguyen, Cuong |
| Abstract: | In this study, we will simulate different ways of select households according to the LC-LQAS method, and examine the accuracy of these ways to measure the percentage of communes having the sanitation coverage of 70%. We tried different sampling methods which differ in the number of clusters (village) and the number of households selected in each communes. The results suggest that the methods identify communes with the sanitation rate of at least 70% quite well. More than 90% of communes are correctly identified. The number of clusters selected in a commune plays an important role in reducing the mean squared error and increasing the correct prediction rates. Possible, two clusters within a commune with the total number of sampled households of 19 is the best choice. |
| Keywords: | Sampling method, LC-LQAS method, household survey, sanitation, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | C15 C8 |
| Date: | 2017–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93137&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This aide-mémoire covers the four visits to Myanmar between February and May 2018 by Mr. Jun Iwasaki, Regional Advisor in Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations for the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) in TAOLAM. During these visits, the advisor focused his work on the areas of the financial markets developments and monetary operations-related issues through discussions with officials in the Central Bank of Myanmar’s (CBM) Monetary Policy Affairs Department (MPAD), Accounts Department (AD), as well as with market participants. As for financial markets developments, the data collected by the CBM show that there already exist a significant number of uncollateralized interbank (I/B) transactions in Myanmar, but that the data on these transactions are not effectively used. The CBM is publishing graphs of “interbank market rates” on its website, based on the data, but the information is outdated and its presentation can be improved. One major obstacle is the low quality of data reporting by banks. The advisor recommends finding out what motivates banks to use different types of I/B transactions and strengthening the effort for upgrading banks’ reporting quality. He also recommends considering better use of the data by publishing Trade Weighted Average Interest Rates on key durations and the total transaction amount weekly, with due considerations of the operational feasibility. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is providing support to the CBM’s data with the necessary IT solutions. If implemented, this provision of market rates information would function as reference rates for the I/B markets, with the expectation of contributing to the further development of this market. |
| Date: | 2019–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/87&r=all |
| By: | Hanna, Rema (Harvard Kennedy School); Olken, Benjamin A. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Developing country governments are increasingly implementing cash assistance programs to combat poverty and inequality. This paper examines the potential tradeoffs between targeting these transfers towards low income households versus providing universal cash transfers, also known as a Universal Basic Income. We start by discussing how the fact that most households in poor countries do not pay income taxes changes how we conceptually think about Universal Basic Incomes. We then analyze data from two countries, Indonesia and Peru, to document the tradeoffs involved. The results suggest that, despite the imperfections in targeting using proxy-means tests, targeted transfers may result in substantially higher welfare gains than universal programs, because for a given total budget they deliver much higher transfers to the poor. On the other hand, targeted transfers do lead to more horizontal equity violations, and do create an implied tax on consumption in the region where benefits are phased out. We discuss how alternative targeting approaches, such as community-targeting and self-targeting, can be used to further improve targeting in some situations. |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp18-024&r=all |
| By: | Ken Odajima; Daiju Aiba; Vouthy Khou |
| Abstract: | Beyond dollarization in financial systems and business transactions, foreign currency is widely used in domestic transactions by households in several dollarized economies. Based on data from a nationally representative household survey in Cambodia, we examined the key factors that affect household preferences in relation to currency choice in those transactions where they accept money when selling some assets. We found that size of transaction is negatively correlated to household choice of local currency. In addition, we found that having a bank account mitigates the negative effect of size of transaction on local currency choice, suggesting that availability of financial services could reduce the transaction costs for households when accepting local currency. We also found that our measures of the extent of the network externalities of foreign currency are significantly correlated to household choice of foreign currency. Our findings suggest that improvement in the usability of local currency gained by reducing the transaction costs of local currency relative to foreign currency, particularly for large transactions, can have a positive impact on household use of the local currency in domestic transactions. |
| Keywords: | Dollarization, currency preference, transaction cost, household survey data |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:185&r=all |
| By: | Kalus Abbink; Donna Harris |
| Abstract: | We study in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination in a novel multiplayer dictator game in a naturally occuring setting. An allocator divides a large sum of money among three groups of around 20 recipients each and to Self. The groups are supporters of two rival political movements in Thailand and politically neutral subjects. The non-rival out-group as a reference point allows us to measure in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination. A treatment with artificial groups serves as a control. We find both in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination among the naturally occurring groups. In artificial groups, favouritism is observed, but not discrimination. Our results suggest that the two behaviours are not driven by the same motive, and only when groups are in conflict out-group discrimination is likely to occur. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2019-02&r=all |
| By: | Mukherjee, Sacchidananda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | In World Energy Outlook 2018, India's total primary energy demand (TPED) is ex-pected to grow from 898 million tonne of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2017 to 1465 Mtoe in 2030. India's growth in TPED during 2017 to 2030 is expected to be the single largest source of global growth in TPED. India's share in world's TPED will go up from 6.4 percent in 2017 to 9.1 percent in 2030. With rising demand for energy, India's contribution in world's energy-related total CO2 emission is expected to go up from 6.7 percent in 2017 to 10.6 percent in 2030. Though India's per capita CO2 emission is one-third of world's average, the rising contribution in CO2 emission is mostly attributable to high emission intensity of India's GDP. It is expected that India will be the single largest driver of global growth in total energy-related CO2 emission during 2017-2030. Achieving energy security is important for India to sustain high economic growth and socio-economic wellbeing of Indian populace. However, it would be important for India to reduce emission intensity of GDP and explore low carbon energy security path through inter-regional energy cooperation. Coal is the single largest source of India's total primary energy demand and it is expected to be so in 2030. Coal is predominantly used in India's power sector and it con-tributes 71 percent in India's total energy-related CO2 emission. Reducing dependence on coal in power sector could be the foremost priority in achieving low carbon energy secu-rity for India. Power sector contributes 53 percent of India's total energy-related CO2 emission in 2017 and it is expected to fall to 46 percent in 2030. India needs to explore options for electricity trade rather than high value primary energy sources for power gen-eration to reduce dependence on energy imports as well as greening up the power sector. Being net importer, 58 percent of India's trade imbalance is attributed to import of energy sources. Given the vast potential exists in non-hydro renewable power generation in In-dia, it would be important for India to explore electricity trade in the Asia-Pacific region by mobilizing finance to invest in inter-regional electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. India's objectives to achieve energy security and environment sustainability need to be integrated. This paper explores challenges in achieving India's low-carbon energy secu-rity and possible scope for Asia-Pacific energy cooperation thereof. |
| Keywords: | Energy security ; CO2 emission ; inter-regional energy cooperation ; India |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:19/259&r=all |
| By: | Nguyen, Cuong |
| Abstract: | This study predicts the impact of increasing VAT on household welfare as measured by the average expenditure and poverty rate in Viet Nam. We forecast the impact of two scenarios of increasing VAT. Scenario 1 is to increase VAT by 1.2 times, i.e. increasing 5% VAT and 10% VAT to 6% and 12% VAT, respectively. Scenario 2 applies a common rate of 10% on all items, i.e., commodities subject to 5% tax can be taxed by a 10% rate. The results show that Scenario 1 has a stronger impact on households compared to Scenario 2. In particular, Scenario 1 reduces households' expenditure by 0.89%, while Scenario 2 decreases households’ expenditure by 0.32%. Under Scenario 1, the poverty rate is increased by 0.26 percentage points, while under Scenario 2, the poverty rate is increased by 0.22 percentage points. The number of poor people increases approximately by 240 and 202 thousand people in Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Regarding the impact on poverty, VAT only affects the near poor households. Better-off households are also affected, but this effect does not cause them fall into poverty. |
| Keywords: | Value added tax, simulation, poverty, household expenditure, Vietnam |
| JEL: | H2 O2 |
| Date: | 2017–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93139&r=all |
| By: | Humberto Llavador (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); John E. Roemer (Dept. of Political Science, Yale University); Joaquim Silvestre (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Carbon budgets are a useful way to frame the climate mitigation challenge and much easier to agree upon than the allocation of emissions. We propose a mechanism with countries agreeing on the global carbon budget, while the decision to emit is decentralized at the country level. The revenue is collected in a global fund and allocated according to endogenously defined weights proportional to the marginal cost of climate change. The proposal features a unanimous agreement of the national citizenries of the world and global Pareto e?iciency. We run a simulation in the spirit of the Paris Agreement, with zero emissions after 2055. At the Global Unanimity Equilibrium, permits are priced at 90$/tC, yielding 1.3 trillion dollars annually. Africa, India and the less developed countries in Asia are the only net recipients, while the US and China are the largest net contributors. |
| Keywords: | Unanimity equilibrium, Climate change, Carbon pricing, Integrated assessment models |
| JEL: | Q5 D5 D6 H0 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2172&r=all |
| By: | Mochamad Pasha (Consultant, World Bank, Indonesia); Marc Rockmore (Department of Economics, Clark University); Chih Ming Tan (Department of Economics, University of North Dakota) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of early life exposure to above average levels of rainfall on adult mental health. While we find no effect from pre-natal exposure, post-natal positive rainfall shocks decrease average Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CESD) mental health scores by 15 percent and increase the likelihood of depression by 5 percent, a more than 20 percent increase relative to the mean. These effects are limited to females. We rule out prenatal stress and income shocks as pathways and find evidence suggestive of increased exposure to disease. |
| Keywords: | Acute myocardial infarction, instrumental variables, mortality |
| JEL: | I15 O12 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1805&r=all |