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on South East Asia |
| By: | Kyunghoon Kim; Andy Sumner; Arief Anshory Yusuf |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between structural transformation and the inclusivity of growth using the case of Indonesia. In the past two decades, Indonesia has become a service-centred economy; manufacturing sector’s capacity to generate employment and lead productivity growth has deteriorated compared to during the two decades prior to the Asian financial crisis. A multidimensional analysis of Indonesia’s structural transformation shows that productivity growth since the crisis has been higher than the long-term average, driven both by within-sector productivity gains and labour movement to higher productivity sectors. Also, Indonesia has not experienced a rising level of informality that is increasingly a concern for other developing countries going through service-led structural change. We argue thus that structural transformation has offered sustainable opportunities to the Indonesian workers in general. However, Indonesia’s economic growth is unlikely to as dynamic as during the high growth period (1986–1996) if the service sector continues to lead structural transformation. Compared to the industrial subsector, the service subsector with large employment absorptive capacity, has low productivity. Indonesia face challenges of recovering economic dynamism as well as managing the consequences of structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, structural change, inclusive growth, productivity, employment |
| JEL: | O14 O16 O53 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-11&r=all |
| By: | Kim, Kunmin (Asian Development Bank Institute); Salazar, Dani Rose C. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The global population is composed of an almost equal proportion of men and women. In contrast, the global labor force is disproportionately male. Only four in every 10 workers in the global labor force are women. Similar discrepancies between the women’s share in the population and the labor force are reported in Asia and the Pacific, specifically in Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and the Republic of Korea. India has the widest gap (about 23 percentage points) between the population and labor force shares, which are 48% and 25% female, respectively. |
| Keywords: | gender gap; gender bias; female labor force participation; gender equality |
| Date: | 2018–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbipb:2018&r=all |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf; Peter Warr |
| Abstract: | Since the 1997-99 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the rate of poverty reduction in Indonesia has slowed and economic inequality has increased. At the same time, protectionism also increased, both at the global level and within Indonesia. The objective of this paper is to find the extent, if any, that protectionism, both at the global level and within Indonesia, explains the observed slowing down in poverty reduction and rising We do this using a general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy which enables detailed calculation of the poverty and inequality impacts of policy changes and external shocks. We conclude that increased protection had harmful effects on both poverty reduction and inequality, but that its impact was relatively small. It was not the major cause of either the slowdown in poverty reduction or increased inequality. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; poverty; Indonesia; general equilibrium |
| JEL: | I32 O53 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-03&r=all |
| By: | Arianto Patunru; Prema-chandra Athukorala |
| Abstract: | The validity of the ‘proportionality assumption’ made in estimating value added in exports using aggregate input-output tables is tested using separately compiled domestic- and imported-input matrices for Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Australia. The results show that the use of the proportionality assumption results in overestimation of value-added exports, and that the magnitude of the bias becomes amplified when the export composition of a country shifts from primary products to manufactured goods through integration into global production networks. |
| Keywords: | trade in value-added, global production networks, input-output analysis |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O19 O24 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2019-03&r=all |
| By: | Mikio Kuwayama (Research Fellow of Kobe University Research Institute for Economics and Business (RIEB) and Managing Director of the Japan Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (JALAC)) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the economic and political implications of the entry into force of the TPP11 (CPTPP) on trade relations between Japan and Latin America amid the increasing anti-globalism sentiments and protectionism in the world economy. The paper argues that its entry in force sends the world the message that Japan is prepared to play a leading role in preserving the multilateral trading system and that the benefits of TPP11 are significant; it has a potential to discourage harmful trade policies by building a 21st-century rules-based trading system, with a possibility that its trade rules will become the de facto trade rules of the Asia-Pacific region. The TPP also differs from other conventional mega FTAs by incorporating development dimensions into trade negotiations. In addition, TPP11 is likely to fill a geopolitical vacuum created by the retreat of U.S. global leadership, which is unlikely, at least for now, to be filled by China's "socialist-type" trade liberalism. Another benefit of TPP11 might be that it will open to Latin America new venues and ways to construct strategic relations with the Asia-Pacific countries, and rewrite integration strategies within the proper LAC region. A more unified and enlarged regional market resulting from joint efforts between the Alliance and Mercosur, on the one hand, and more connected regional markets with the EU, EFTA and Asia-Pacific countries (e.g., Australia, Canada, Korea, Singapore, and possibly Japan), on the other, will enhance the attractiveness of LAC as a region. However, as the membership of the Pacific Alliance expands, there might emerge two similar, overlapping transpacific mega agreements in progress; this might pose a challenge to the ongoing "Japan-led" TPP process. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2019-05&r=all |
| By: | Seetha Ram, KE (Asian Development Bank Institute); Hashimoto, Kazushi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Bugalia, Nikhil (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Even though access to improved sanitation facilities has improved, progress in access to safely managed sanitation services is still slow. Globally, 4.5 billion people still lack access to safely managed sanitation (UNICEF and WHO 2017). Such inappropriate management of excreta is a main source of pollution of public water bodies, rivers, canals, and ponds, particularly in the urban areas of many Asian developing countries. According to a survey conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (2012), in Jakarta, Indonesia, although the share of residents with access to improved sanitation facilities has reached 87% (85% to septic tanks and 2% to sewerage systems), the rivers in the city are seriously polluted. |
| Keywords: | sanitation; wastewater management; packaged aerated wastewater treatment plants; desludging |
| Date: | 2019–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbipb:0018&r=all |
| By: | Peter Warr; Archanun Kohpaiboon |
| Abstract: | We argue that the success of Thailand’s export-oriented automotive industry was based on three factors. First was the substantial public investment in productivity-raising port facilities and related infrastructure, beginning in the 1990s, that constituted the Eastern Seaboard economic corridor. The second was the exchange rate depreciation that accompanied the 1997-99 Asian Financial Crisis. Jointly, these two factors made manufacturing production for export more profitable. The third was two key policy changes adopted by the Thai government shortly after the crisis, and partly in response to it: (a) abolition of restrictions on foreign ownership, and (b) abolition of local content requirements. |
| Keywords: | Automotive exports; final assembly; parts and components; Eastern Seaboard scheme; Thailand. |
| JEL: | F14 L62 O18 O24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-02&r=all |
| By: | Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Binh Vo-Ninh Pham (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Trung Vu-Thanh Pham (Curtin University, Australia.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | Any critical analysis of the corporate financial distress of listed firms in international exchange would be incomplete without a serious dissection at the industry level because of the different levels of risks concerned. This paper considers the financial distress of listed firms at the industry level in Vietnam over the last decade. Two periods are considered, namely during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (2007 - 2009) and post-GFC (2010 - 2017). The logit regression technique is used to estimate alternative models based on accounting and market factors. The paper also extends the analysis to include selected macroeconomic factors that are expected to affect the corporate financial distress of listed firms at the industry level in Vietnam. The empirical findings confirm that the corporate financial distress prediction model, which includes accounting factors with macroeconomic indicators, performs much better than alternative models. In addition, the evidence confirms that the GFC had a damaging impact on each sector, with the Health & Education sector demonstrating the most impressive recovery post-GFC, and the Utilities sector recording a dramatic increase in bankruptcies post-GFC. |
| Keywords: | Listed firms, Industry level, Corporate financial distress, Bankruptcy, Distance to default, Fundamentals, Global Financial Crisis, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | G01 G31 G33 G34 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1909&r=all |
| By: | Le, Nga (UNU-MERIT); Groot, Wim (UNU-MERIT, TIER and CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, Maastricht University); Tomini, Sonila M. (UNU-MERIT); Tomini, Florian (Centre for Primary Care and Public Health Queen Mary University, London,) |
| Abstract: | Health insurance can have important effects on self-employment and self- employment transitions. However, there is a literature gap on the relationship between health insurance and self-employment in low and middle income countries, especially in the context of rapid expansion of health insurance in these countries. This paper examines this relationship in Vietnam with a focus on the comparison between the voluntary scheme for the informal sector (mostly self-employed workers) and the compulsory insurance for the formal sector (mostly wage workers). We employ a Probit model with selection on a panel from the Vietnamese Household Living Standards Surveys 2010-2014 to investigate the association between health insurance and self-employment entry and exit. We show that those with compulsory health insurance in Vietnam, the formal workers, are 10 percentage points less likely to enter self-employment compared to those having voluntary insurance. Regarding self-employment exit, people with compulsory insurance are more likely to exit self-employment compared to those covered by voluntary insurance. However, the effect size is relatively small. |
| Keywords: | health insurance, self-employment, Vietnam, self-employment entry, self-employment exit |
| JEL: | I13 J22 |
| Date: | 2019–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2019008&r=all |
| By: | Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Ha Minh Nguyen (Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Anh The Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the role of consumption of both renewable and sustainable energy, as well as alternative and nuclear energy, in mitigating the effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The papers introduces a novel variable to capture trade openness, which appears to be a crucial factor in inter-regional co-operation and development, in order to evaluate its effect on the environment, The empirical analysis is based on a sample of nine signatories to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) for the period 1971-2014, which is based on data availability. The empirical analysis is based on several time series econometric methods, such as the cointegration test, two long run estimators, namely the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methods, as well as the Granger causality test. There are several noteworthy empirical findings: it is possible to confirm the U-shaped EKC hypothesis for six countries, namely Australia, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Peru and Vietnam; there is no evidence of the EKC for Mexico; a reverse-shaped EKC is observed for Japan and Malaysia, there are long run relationships among the variables, the adoption of either renewable energy, or alternative energy and nuclear energy, mitigates CO2 emissions, trade openness leads to more beneficial than harmful impacts in the long run, the Granger causality tests show more bi-directional-relationships between the variables in the long run, and the Granger causality tests show more uni-directional-relationships between the variables in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Renewable and sustainable energy, Alternative energy, Nuclear energy, Carbon emissions, CPTPP, EKC hypothesis, DOLS, FMOLS, Granger causality, VECM. |
| JEL: | C12 C52 Q42 Q43 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1908&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Malaysian economy has shown resilience and continues to perform well. A peaceful political transition following the May 2018 elections demonstrated the strength of Malaysia’s institutions. Although vulnerabilities exist, capital outflows have been manageable. The new government has launched multiple initiatives to address governance weaknesses and corruption. Policy priorities are governance reforms and fiscal consolidation while safeguarding growth and financial stability. Structural reforms are needed to boost productivity and help further rebalancing growth towards domestic demand. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth;Real sector;Expenditures;Financial soundness indicators;Financial statistics;percent of GDP;tax refund;percent;medium term;household debt |
| Date: | 2019–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/71&r=all |
| By: | Hal Hill |
| Abstract: | This paper selectively surveys Southeast Asian economic development over the past half-century and anticipates some of the region’s challenges if it is to progress to the ranks of developed countries. In the long sweep of development, three key features stand out. First, the region’s “initial conditions” in the early post-independence period appeared to be quite unfavorable. The literature at this time reflected the resulting pessimism. But, second, several countries belong to the very small group to have achieved historically unprecedented growth since the 1960s. The drivers of rapid growth remain contested. But the common feature has been a strong commitment to reasonably broad-based economic growth. Moreover, third, the propensity for growth in the region has spread as countries have progressively joined the regional and global mainstream. Policy regimes that favored outward orientation and prudent macroeconomic management have generally resulted in faster growth. The accurate forecasting of crises and growth decelerations has proven to be elusive, reinforcing the view that an eclectic, historical, and multi-disciplinary framework is necessary to understand the region’s long-term development dynamics. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, global economy, Southeast Asia Association of Southeast Asian Nations |
| JEL: | N15 O53 P52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-12&r=all |
| By: | José Cobián Álvarez; Budy P. Resosudarmo |
| Abstract: | Although many megacities in developing countries experience floods that affect a large number of people, relatively few empirical studies have evaluated the costs involved. This paper estimates such costs by conducting a hedonic price analysis of the impacts of floods on the housing market in Jakarta. A robust regression technique on a simple linear transformation model, and a maximum likelihood estimation technique on the spatial lag version of the simple linear transformation model are utilized to estimate the correlation between the level of the 2007 floods and monthly housing rental prices in Jakarta, Indonesia. This paper concludes that in developing countries’ megacities the total cost of floods is not as considerable as the total estimated cost of making the city of Jakarta floodfree |
| Keywords: | Environmental economics, hedonic price analysis, spatial analysis, flood. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 R32 O21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-05&r=all |
| By: | Paul J Burke; Sandra Kurniawati |
| Abstract: | Indonesia’s budget has for years been burdened by large subsidies for electricity consumption. A series of recent reforms has delivered a substantial reduction in these subsidies. In this paper we estimate demand-side effects of these reforms on electricity use. Our analysis utilizes a three-dimensional dataset covering six consumer groups, 16 regions, and 1992–2015. We control for various fixed effects, and use an instrumental variable approach. Our estimates suggest that subsidy reductions since 2013 had induced savings in annual electricity use of around 7% relative to the no-reform counterfactual as of 2015. The phase-out of remaining subsidies has the potential to generate further improvements in the efficiency of electricity use, while freeing up resources for other priorities such as infrastructure spending. |
| Keywords: | electricity subsidy, electricity demand, price elasticity, Indonesia, panel data |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 L94 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-01&r=all |
| By: | Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Ngoc Phu Tran (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Tam Nguyen-Thanh Duong (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to estimate market risk for the ten major industries in Vietnam. The focus is on the Energy sector, which has been designated as one of the four key industries, together with Services, Food, and Telecommunications, targeted for economic development by the Vietnam Government through to 2020. Oil and Gas is a separate energy-related major industry. The data set is from 2009 to 2017, which is decomposed into two distinct sub-periods after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), namely the immediate post-GFC (2009-2011) period and the normal (2012-2017) period, in order to identify the behaviour of market risk for Vietnam major industries. Two widely-used approaches to measure and analyze risk are used in the empirical analysis, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The empirical findings indicate that Energy and Pharmaceuticals are the least risky industries, whereas Oil and Gas and Securities have the greatest risk. In general, there is strong empirical evidence that the four key industries display relatively low risk. For public policy, the Vietnam Government’s pro-active emphasis on the targeted industries, including Energy, to achieve sustainable economic growth and national economic development, seems to be working effectively. |
| Keywords: | Market risk, Energy, Industries, Value-at-Risk, Conditional Value-at-Risk, Sustainable growth, Economic development, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | C10 G10 E32 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1914&r=all |
| By: | Tan Ngoc Vu (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | The paper develops a model to examine rent seeking in innovation and export licenses, with an application to Vietnam rice exports. Firms can lobby for export restrictions or for free trade. Innovation is introduced as a cost-reducing technology. The analysis focuses on the innovation incentives of the firm lobbying for export restrictions, and the determinants of lobbying incentives. The analysis shows that firms lobbying for export restrictions may have lower incentives to adopt technological innovations under export restrictions than under free trade. The findings can help to identify economic inefficiency when the political elites use export restrictions to seek rents. |
| Keywords: | Trade restrictions, Export licenses, Innovation, Monopoly, Rent seeking; Free trade, Economic development. |
| JEL: | D72 G1 L12 O13 Q55 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1913&r=all |
| By: | Ha Minh Nguyen (Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Ngoc Hoang Bui (Graduate School, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam, University of Labour and Social Affairs, Vietnam.); Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | The importance of non-renewable, renewable and sustainable energy sources and energy consumption in the economic development strategy of a country is undeniable. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the impacts of energy consumption on the economic growth of Vietnam during the 1980-2014 period. By applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran et al. (2001), and the Granger causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the empirical results provide evidence that electricity consumption has positive impacts on Vietnam’s economic growth in both the short run and long run. For public policy prescriptions, the empirical evidence suggests that an exploration of new sources of renewable and sustainable energy is essential for long run economic development. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption, Renewable and sustainable energy, Economic growth, Economic development, ARDL, Granger causality. |
| JEL: | F42 O13 O47 Q42 Q43 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1910&r=all |
| By: | Juswanto, Wawan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kelkar, Vedanti (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | More than half of the world’s megacities are in Asia and the Pacific, and they constitute hubs of knowledge, culture, commerce, and industry. Parallel to the rapid growth of Asian economies, intense infrastructure investments are necessary to cater to the needs of the growing urban populations. Building quality and resilient infrastructure in developing Asia will require financial investments of approximately $1.7 trillion annually until 2030 to withstand the shocks of climate change (ADB 2017). Especially in the Pacific island countries (PICs) where regional interconnectivity and integration remains a challenge with rapid urbanization, providing sustainable infrastructure is key to ensuring the livelihood, economy, and climate adaptation of the region and necessary to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. |
| Keywords: | urbanization; sustainable infrastructure; informal dwellers; housing |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbipb:2019&r=all |
| By: | Jayant Menon; Anna Fink |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It argues that technologies of the 4IR can bring huge benefits such as empowerment for small and medium sized enterprises and opportunities for countries to leapfrog traditional pathways of development. It will also bring tremendous challenges, such as deep disruption to labor markets and the potential of rising inequality. To address the challenges and seize the opportunities of the 4IR, ASEAN will need a new way of formulating policy and regulation that will require: (i) evolution of the ASEAN Secretariat to become a “platform organization”; (ii) greater delegation of key activities to affiliated functional bodies; (iii) a shift from long-term blueprints to three year rolling plans; (iv) democratize and decentralize; and (v)establish multi-country test beds. |
| Keywords: | Fourth Industrial Revolution, ASEAN; Digital economy; Regional economic integration. |
| JEL: | O19 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2018-04&r=all |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Communicable Diseases Health, Nutrition and Population - Early Child and Children's Health Health, Nutrition and Population - HIV AIDS Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Health, Nutrition and Population - Malaria Health, Nutrition and Population - Tuberculosis |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:30175&r=all |
| By: | Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Tan Ngoc Vu (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Anh The Vo (Business and Economics Research Group Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Vietnam.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | The food-energy nexus has attracted great attention from policymakers, practitioners and academia since the food price crisis during the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and new policies that aim to increase ethanol production. This paper incorporates aggregate demand and alternative oil shocks to investigate the causal relationship between agricultural products and oil markets, which is a novel contribution. For the period January 2000 - July 2018, monthly spot prices of 15 commodities are examined, including Brent crude oil, biofuel-related agricultural commodities, and other agricultural commodities. The sample is divided into three sub-periods, namely: (i) January 2000 - July 2006; (ii) August 2006 - April 2013; and (iii) May 2013 - July 2018. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition technique are used to examine how the shocks to agricultural markets contribute to the variance of crude oil prices. The empirical findings from the paper indicate that not every oil shock contributes the same to agricultural price fluctuations, and similarly for the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the agricultural market. These results show that the crude oil market plays a major role in explaining fluctuations in the prices and associated volatility of agricultural commodities. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodity prices, Volatility, Crude oil prices, Structural Vector Autoregressive model, Impulse response functions, Decomposition. |
| JEL: | C32 C58 Q14 Q42 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1911&r=all |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Information and Communication Technologies - Digital Divide Information and Communication Technologies - ICT Economics Information and Communication Technologies - Information Technology Information and Communication Technologies - Poverty Reduction & ICT Information and Communication Technologies - Telecommunications Infrastructure Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Social Protections and Labor - Vocational & Technical Education |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:30383&r=all |
| By: | Wendy Cunningham; Farima Alidadi; Helle Buchhave |
| Keywords: | Gender - Gender and Law Gender - Gender and Social Development Social Protections and Labor - Employment and Unemployment Social Protections and Labor - Labor Law Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Social Protections and Labor - Wages, Compensation & Benefits |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:30172&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Gross domestic product;Business cycles;Investment;Economic growth;medium-term;external finance;MTFF;non-financial corporation;net save |
| Date: | 2019–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/72&r=all |
| By: | Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma; Trang-Thi Ho; Wei-Chun Kao; Yu-Yen Ou; Kai-Lung Hua |
| Abstract: | Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors effect to the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment and economic factors. This work explores the predictability in the stock market using Deep Convolutional Network and candlestick charts. The outcome is utilized to design a decision support framework that can be used by traders to provide suggested indications of future stock price direction. We perform this work using various types of neural networks like convolutional neural network, residual network and visual geometry group network. From stock market historical data, we converted it to candlestick charts. Finally, these candlestick charts will be feed as input for training a Convolutional Neural Network model. This Convolutional Neural Network model will help us to analyze the patterns inside the candlestick chart and predict the future movements of stock market. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated in stock market prediction with a promising results 92.2% and 92.1% accuracy for Taiwan and Indonesian stock market dataset respectively. The constructed model have been implemented as a web-based system freely available at http://140.138.155.216/deepcandle/ for predicting stock market using candlestick chart and deep learning neural networks. |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1903.12258&r=all |
| By: | Humberto Llavador; John E. Roemer |
| Abstract: | Carbon budgets are a useful way to frame the climate mitigation challenge and much easier to agree upon than the allocation of emissions. We propose a mechanism with countries agreeing on the global carbon budget, while the decision to emit is decentralized at the country level. The revenue is collected in a global fund and allocated according to endogenously defined 10 weights proportional to the marginal cost of climate change. The proposal features a unanimous agreement of the national citizenries of the world and global Pareto efficiency. We run a simulation in the spirit of the Paris Agreement, with zero emissions after 2055. At the Global Unanimity Equilibrium, permits are priced at 90$/tC, yielding 1.3 trillion dollars annually. Africa, India and the less developed countries in Asia are the only net recipients, while the US 15 and China are the largest net contributors. |
| Keywords: | carbon budget, emissions, international agreement, permits, climate change |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 F53 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1084&r=all |