nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2019‒03‒25
forty papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Determinants and Impacts of Financial Literacy in the Lao PDR By Morgan, Peter J.; Trinh, Long Q.
  2. Personality traits in Southeast Asia – Evidence from rural Thailand and Vietnam By Buehler, Dorothee; Sharma, Rasadhika; Stein, Wiebke
  3. Analysis of Business Development on Organic Products at Muslim SMEs (MSMEs) in Malang, Indonesia By Sri Muljaningsih
  4. Optimal Route in International Transportation of Thailand – Guangxi (China) By Nathathai Krebs
  5. Variety of Middle-Income Donors: Comparing Foreign Aid Approaches by Thailand and Indonesia By Jin Sato; Awidya Santikajaya
  6. The Basel Capital Requirement, Lending Interest Rate, and Aggregate Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Viet Nam By Minh Phi, Nguyet Thi; Hong Hoang, Hanh Thi; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Yoshino, Naoyuki
  7. Financial inclusion and macroeconomic stability in emerging and frontier markets By Anh The Vo; Loan Thi-Hong Van; Duc Hong Vo; Michael McAleer
  8. Harnessing the Ring of Fire: Political economy of clean energy development finance on geothermal development in Indonesia and the Philippines By Kathryn Chelminski
  9. Lawyers as Meddlers in the Mediation Process - A Malaysian Perspective By Wong Hua Siong
  10. Sectoral and Skill Contributions to Labor Productivity in Asia By Helble, Matthias; Long, Trinh; Le, Trang
  11. Determinants of Personal Financial Literacy among Young Adults in Malaysian Accounting Firms By Kwee Kim Peong
  12. Combating Malaysia's Involvement in Worldwide Organ Trafficking by Tapping into the Potential of Bioprinting By Marina Abdul Majid
  13. When Women are the Criminals: Governing Violent Extremism in Malaysia via 'Hard' and 'Soft' Modalities By Zaiton Hamin
  14. Sustaining the Implementation of Dual-Language Programme (DLP) in Malaysian Secondary Schools By Ashairi Suliman
  15. Enhancing the Resilience of Junior High School Students to Bullying By Asrowi
  16. Nonperforming Loans in Asia: Determinants and Macrofinancial Linkages By Rosenkranz, Peter; Lee, Junkyu
  17. The Vietnamese financial economy: reforms and development, 1986-2016 By Quan-Hoang Vuong
  18. Psychological Resilience Predicted by Personality Traits, Locus of Control and Self-Regulation of Young Entrepreneurs in Pekanbaru By Syarifah Farradinna
  19. Growth and Productivity in the Philippines By World Bank
  20. Negotiating for Justice: Judge's Perception of the Plea-Bargaining Process in Malaysia By Zaiton Hamin
  21. Analysis of instruments for the protection of the domestic market by countries that form a free trade zone with the People’s Republic of China By Volovik, Nadezhda (Воловик, Надежда)
  22. Indonesia Economic Quarterly, September 2018 By World Bank
  23. Is Indonesia Ready to Serve? By World Bank Group
  24. Towards Green Growth in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Environmental Performance Reviews By Ivana Capozza; Rachel Samson
  25. Employment Rights Implementation and Industrial Relations Systems: The Case of the Outsourcing Policy in Banking Industry By S Waluyo, Yoyok; Widodo, Tri; Darwin, Muhadjir; Sukamdi, Sukamdi; Mulyadi, Mulyadi
  26. Fintech and Financial Literacy in the Lao PDR By Morgan, Peter J.; Trinh, Long Q.
  27. Endogenous and Exogenous Explanations for the Financial Crises in Mexico, SE Asian and Russia By Sinta, Nur
  28. Multi-dimensional Individual Work Performance: Predictors and Mediators By Rostiana
  29. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Fractional Vasicek Model By Tanaka, Katsuto; Xiao, Weilin; Yu, Jun
  30. Multi-product Firms, Tariff Liberalization, and Product Churning in Vietnamese Manufacturing By Thanh Doan, Ha Thi
  31. Improving Subnational Government Development Finance in Emerging and Developing Economies: Toward a Strategic Approach By Smoke, Paul
  32. Forecasting Equity Index Volatility by Measuring the Linkage among Component Stocks By Qiu, Yue; Xie, Tian; Yu, Jun; Zhou, Qiankun
  33. Second-chance Education in Post-conflict Timor-Leste: Youth and Adult Learners’ Motives, Experiences and Circumstances By Taro Komatsu
  34. Establishment of the Credit Risk Database: Concrete Use to Evaluate the Creditworthiness of SMEs By Kuwahara, Satoshi; Yoshino, Naoyuki; Sagara, Megumi; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
  35. The allocation of CO2 emissions as a claims problem By Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio; Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel); Vilella, Cori
  36. Why Is Green Finance Important? By Sachs, Jeffrey D.; Woo, Wing Thye; Yoshino, Naoyuki; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
  37. Bursting the Bitcoin Bubble: Assessing the Fundamental Value and Social Costs of Bitcoin By Podhorsky, Andrea
  38. The Role of Credit Guarantee Schemes in the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises with an Emphasis on Knowledge-Based Enterprises By Aboojafari, Roohollah; Daliri, Alireza; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Mokhtari, Mohammad; Ekhtiari, Mohsen
  39. Countries' perceptions of China's Belt and Road initiative: A big data analysis By Alicia Garcia-Herrero; Jianwei Xu
  40. Refusal bias in HIV data from the Demographic and Health Surveys: Evaluation, critique and recommendations By Adegboye, Oyelola A.; Fujii, Tomoki; Leung, Denis H.Y.

  1. By: Morgan, Peter J. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Trinh, Long Q. (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: However, internationally comparable information on financial literacy is still scarce. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development International Network on Financial Education (OECD/INFE) survey of adult financial literacy is a standardized survey instrument, but so far has mainly been implemented in higher-income countries outside of Asia. Our paper extends the literature by conducting the survey in a relatively low-income Asian economy—the Lao PDR—and analyzing the determinants of financial literacy and the effects of financial literacy on other behaviors. We also compare these results with those of our earlier study of financial literacy in Cambodia and Viet Nam. This study of the Lao PDR extends our research in the Cambodia-Lao PDR-Myanmar-Viet Nam (CLMV) region, and the survey was broadened to include more variables that could be used as effective instrumental variables for financial literacy to deal with possible endogeneity problems. This increases our confidence in our findings that financial literacy positively affects both savings and financial inclusion.
    Keywords: financial literacy; financial behavior; financial inclusion; household saving; Cambodia; Lao PDR; Viet Nam
    JEL: D14 G11 J26
    Date: 2019–03–06
  2. By: Buehler, Dorothee; Sharma, Rasadhika; Stein, Wiebke
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold: First, we implement and validate the famous Big Five model on personality traits in a rural developing country setting. Second, we provide micro level evidence that examines personality traits of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam. Using new representative individual level data, our results show that the Big Five model can be applied in a rural setting. Moreover, we find substantial differences in personality traits between the rural populations of Thailand and Vietnam as well as persistent gender differences among both emerging societies.
    Keywords: Personality traits, Big Five Factor Model, Southeast Asia, TVSEP
    JEL: D91 O1 R2
    Date: 2019–02
  3. By: Sri Muljaningsih (Faculty of Economics and Business, Brawijaya University, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - This study aims to determine the constraints on business development of organic products run by Muslim SMEs (MSMEs) in Malang city. Businesses concerned with organic generally adopt the principles of health, ecology, justice and protection. Organic products are very popular in today's global market. This is because organic products provide great opportunity for development. However, the requirements of organic products can be quite stringent, as is the experience of developers of organic products in Muslim SMEs (MSMEs) in Malang, Indonesia. Methodology/Technique - This research analyses the root problem using a fishbone method. To determine the main problem, an AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) method is used. The data is obtained using FGD (Focus Group Discussion) attended by informants with an understanding of organic products produced by: Lily Group, Organic Vigur, Representatives of AOI (Organic Alliance of Indonesia) and Representatives of Pamor (Association of Organic Society) in East Java. Finding and Novelty - The research results identifies the problems faced by Muslim SMEs including: raw material, market condition, organic certification, and financial and social capital. Furthermore, the main policy issue faced by these businesses is organic certification. The implications of these policies impact market accessibility and expansion of market reach. The novelty of this research is the identification of the effect of business development policies on Muslim SMEs producing organic products.
    Keywords: Organic Products; Muslim SMEs; Organic Certification; Business Development.
    JEL: L20 L23 L29
    Date: 2019–02–22
  4. By: Nathathai Krebs (School of Logistics and Supply Chain, Naresuan University, Thailand Author-2-Name: Boonsub Panichakarn Author-2-Workplace-Name: School of Logistics and Supply Chain, Naresuan University, Thailand Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - This study examines the selection of international transportation routes from Thailand to Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (Guangxi), People's Republic of China. Guangxi has been designated a significant role as the gateway to ASEAN and has several land borders and seaports connecting to countries in ASEAN. Methodology/Technique - In this work, we studied 6 connecting routes, 3 of which are road routes, namely routes R8, R9, and R12 and 3 other multimodal (road-sea) routes operating from/to Laemchabang port and Nanning of Guangxi, route through Haiphong port of Vietnam, route through Qinzhou port of China, and route through Guangzhou port of China. We analysed the data using the Cost/Time Distance Model, in combination with surveys and in-depth interviews, to investigate the limitations and benefits of each route. Findings - Base on costs in 2017, we found that sea routes have much lower costs than the land routes in general; the lowest cost is route through Qinzhou port. On the other hand, the time used in transportation is much shorter for the land routes; the shortest route is the R12 route. Furthermore, in terms of limitations and benefits, we found that the Qinzhou route has many limitations such as long custom processes for fruit and agricultural products and no backhaul cargo. Meanwhile, the limitations for route R8 include crossing Mekong river on truck ferries and the presence of very steep mountain roads in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. Route R12 winds down the mountain both in Vietnam and Laos, whereas route R9 is advantageous; most of that route has a flat terrain and is operated under the Cross-Border Transport Agreement (CBTA). The route through Haiphong port is also advantageous with a direct highway from Haiphong to Hanoi of Vietnam. In conclusion, it is suggested that road transportation is more efficient than sea transportation. Novelty - Further consideration among road routes and, with emphasis on costs and time, the best route is then route R12. However, if one is concerned with risk of damage to products, then route R9 is the best. The optimal route from Thailand to Guangxi depends on the conditions and decision criteria of the stakeholders.
    Keywords: International Transportation; Multimodal Transportation; Cost/time Distance Model; Guangxi (China); Road Transportation; Sea Transportation.
    JEL: F02 F10 F19
    Date: 2019–02–23
  5. By: Jin Sato; Awidya Santikajaya
    Abstract: Is there a middle-income approach to international cooperation that differs from the approach of advanced countries? To answer this question, this paper conducts comparative case studies of Thailand and Indonesia from a public administration perspective. By examining how these countries transformed themselves from recipients to donors of aid, we argue that there is a plurality of approaches among middle-income donors that can be explained by variations in ministerial politics and the historical evolution of expertise. The paper highlights the importance of geo-political conditions that make each country a unique donor in the emerging landscape of foreign aid in Southeast Asia.
    Keywords: Middle-income donors, Thailand, Indonesia, aid bureaucracy, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2019–01
  6. By: Minh Phi, Nguyet Thi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Hong Hoang, Hanh Thi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: In recent years, the Vietnamese economy has shown signs of financial distress, and especially small banks have experienced serious liquidity and solvency problems. Based on the new policy of the State Bank of Vietnam, in order to ensure safe and effective banking operations, the Basel II accord will be widely applied to the whole banking system by 2018. This paper investigates the effects of the Basel II capital requirement implementation in Viet Nam on the bank lending rate and national output. The paper provides a theoretical framework as well as empirical model by developing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) over the period 2018 to 2016 by employing three groups of indicators (macroeconomics, banking, and monetary). The main finding of the paper is that at the bank level, a tightening of regulatory capital requirements does not induce a higher lending rate in the long run. Also, changes in micro-prudential capital requirements on banks have statistically significant spillovers on the GDP growth rate in the short term; yet, their effects significantly lessen over a longer period.
    Keywords: Basel II; regulatory capital requirements; bank capital; lending rate; aggregate growth
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2019–01–18
  7. By: Anh The Vo (Business and Economics Research Group. Ho Chi Minh City Open University. Vietnam.); Loan Thi-Hong Van (Business and Economics Research Group. Ho Chi Minh City Open University. Vietnam.); Duc Hong Vo (Business and Economics Research Group. Ho Chi Minh City Open University. Vietnam.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain And Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.)
    Abstract: Financial inclusion, being considered as a key enabler to reducing poverty and boosting prosperity in emerging and frontier markets such as Vietnam, is the process in which individuals and small businesses are provided with an access to useful and affordable financial products and services. The extant literature on the empirical evidence regarding the contribution of financial inclusion to macroeconomic stability is mixed. This paper investigates the linkages between financial inclusion and macroeconomic stability, which has not yet been thoroughly examined in the literature, for 22 emerging and frontier economies from 2008 to 2015, with particular focus on a potential optimal level. Using the panel threshold estimation technique, the empirical findings show that financial inclusion, as approximated by the growth rate in the number of bank branches over 100,000 account holders, is found to enhance financial stability under a certain threshold. Financial inclusion is also found to be of benefit to maintaining stable inflation and output growth. Policy implications are also discussed on the basis of the important empirical findings.
    Keywords: Financial inclusion; Macroeconomic stability; Panel threshold; Emerging and frontier markets.
    JEL: C62 O16 P45
  8. By: Kathryn Chelminski (University of Cambridge Energy Policy Research Group and the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center)
    Keywords: clean energy development, development finance, energy policy, geothermal energy
    JEL: O13 Q42 N55
    Date: 2018–01
  9. By: Wong Hua Siong (Faculty of Law, Multimedia University, Melaka, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - The scope of a lawyer's role is common knowledge and is often construed as one who advises on the application of the law, especially in the area of litigation or conveyancing. Nevertheless, it is pertinent to consider the role of a lawyer in mediation and the link between lawyer and mediation. Methodology/Technique - Mediation as a form of dispute resolution is arguably still at its infancy in Malaysia. Judges in Malaysia do encourage people to use mediation to settle disputes, instead of settling disputes through the court. As such, lawyers play a significant role in mediation, especially when the society regards mediation to be one effective mechanism of Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR), compared to litigation. Findings - As such, the term 'mediation' refers to a process that generates structure negotiation, whereby a mediator (a neutral impartial third party that is acceptable to and independent of the parties) serves to facilitate agreement between the parties involved to resolve their disputes in a systematic manner by isolating the dispute issues, developing alternatives, and reaching a viable and acceptable resolution that satisfy the involved parties. Since the mediator plays the role in the mediation process, how does a lawyer play his role in the mediation process? Does he serve as a meddler in the mediation process? Novelty - A mediator claimed, "…involvement of solicitors is significant. They comprehend the dynamics of positive engagement, apart from having the ability and being prepared for a constructive negotiation so as to look for resolutions, rather than reinforcing litigation. They possess the ability to offer advice and provide guidance to their clients as they seize the opportunity to bring matter to an end. This is an exceptional instance of professionalism at its best." This statement has become, at present time, 'how does a lawyer apply his present skills in mediation settlement?
    Keywords: Role of Lawyers; Mediation Process; ADR; Malaysia.
    JEL: K20 K22 K29
    Date: 2019–02–25
  10. By: Helble, Matthias (Asian Development Bank Institute); Long, Trinh (Asian Development Bank Institute); Le, Trang (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Using a decomposition approach on data collected by the Asian Productivity Organization (APO) as well as World Input-Output data, we show that in most Asian economies the services sector makes the largest contribution to labor productivity. Furthermore, we find evidence of a major reallocation of labor from agriculture directly to services, bypassing the manufacturing sector. This finding challenges the traditional view that countries in their economic development need to have their workforce employed first in manufacturing before switching to services. Lastly, the paper studies how different skill levels contribute to labor productivity growth. We find that high-skilled workers have contributed most to overall labor productivity growth in developing Asia. In services, high-skilled workers have mainly driven labor productivity, indicating that upskilling and training are instrumental in services-led development.
    Keywords: labor productivity; manufacturing; services; skills
    JEL: J21 O11
    Date: 2019–03–07
  11. By: Kwee Kim Peong (Faculty of Business, Multimedia University, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Kwee Peng Peong Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business, Multimedia University, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Kwee Peng Peong Author-3-Workplace-Name: MLK Management Services, Jalan TTC Taman Teknologi Cheng, 75250 Malacca, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - In the twenty-first century, financial competencies are an essential tool in understanding the connection between financial behaviour and knowledge of individual financial problems. High financial knowledge may encourage young adults to carry less debt, increase their wealth and have a better financial retirement plan. According to Wolla (2017), less than one-third of youths have basic financial knowledge. This will have an impact to their lifelong financial well-being. Hence, this research intends to explore the personal financial literacy of young adults in Malaysian accounting firms. Methodology/Technique - The study examines 150 young working adults between the ages of 18-35 years old, working in accounting firms in Malacca, Malaysia. Stratified sampling and convenience sampling techniques were used to distribute questionnaires. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regression analyses were also employed. Findings - The empirical findings show that geographical locations and family characteristics are significantly related to the personal financial literacy of young adults in accounting firms in Malacca. However, financial education and financial experience do not influence young adults in their financial decision making. Novelty - The results of this study suggest that the relevant authority should take an appropriate action to improve the financial well-being of young adults in Malacca, Malaysia.
    Keywords: Financial Literacy; Financial Education; Financial Experience; Family Characteristics; Geographical Location.
    JEL: M40 M41 M49
    Date: 2019–02–21
  12. By: Marina Abdul Majid (Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, National University of Malaysia, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - Organ shortages have caused many Malaysian people to travel to India or China to purchase organs illegally and to have those organs transplanted into their body, thus contributing to the worldwide problem of organ trafficking. Bioprinting presents the potential to develop human organs in the future. The objective of this study is to explore, through empirical research, the potential of bioprinting as a means of addressing Malaysia's organ shortages, thereby discouraging Malaysians from obtaining illicitly acquired organs abroad. Methodology/Technique - This is a qualitative study involving primary data including binding international agreements, soft law (non-binding documents issued by international organizations) and Malaysian legislation dealing with organ trafficking. These legal documents are interpreted through a textual analysis. A content analysis was also conducted on the secondary resources consisting of journals, book chapters, conference and working papers, newspaper reports, and other internet materials. Findings - The results of the study show that between 2014 and 2018, Malaysia experienced significant organ shortages, particularly shortages of kidneys. They also suffered from a lack of transplant specialists and medical teams as well as overburdened government hospitals. The Organ and Tissue Transplantation Bill, a new law replacing the Human Tissues Act of 1974, aims to ban organ trading and regulate organ donations. Malaysian research universities have embraced bioprinting through the production of blood vessels and skin, and the Malaysian government has introduced grants and technology transfers that are hoped to accelerate bioprinting. This has the potential to curb Malaysian involvement in worldwide organ trafficking. Novelty - This study is novel as it proposes bioprinting as a technological solution to illicit organ trading and transplantation within the Malaysian context, which has not been previously suggested.
    Keywords: 2000 Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children; 2008 Istanbul Declaration on Organ Trafficking and Transplant Tourism; Bioprinting; China; Guiding Principles on Human Cell, Tissue and Organ Transplantation; India; Malaysia; Organ and Tissue Transplantation Bill; Organ Trafficking.
    JEL: K10 K14 K49
    Date: 2019–02–23
  13. By: Zaiton Hamin (Faculty of Law, University Teknologi MARA, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Saslina Kamaruddin Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business Management & Professional Studies, Management & Science University, 40100, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - This paper seeks to examine the multiple roles of women in preventing and countering violent extremism (PVE/CVE) efforts and the existing legal ('hard') and non-legal ('soft') modalities governing such criminality. Methodology/Technique - This paper adopts a library-based research methodology through not only the conceptual analysis but also content analysis and doctrinal legal analysis. The secondary data consists of the primary sources, which includes the terrorism-related laws and the Penal Code. The secondary sources include books, law reports, journals, and online databases. Findings - The authors contend that despite the significance of women's role in preventing and countering violent extremism, the gender perspective is glaringly absent in the current Malaysian PVE/CVE initiatives. Novelty - There is a dearth of research on the involvement of women in violent extremism in Malaysia, and their role in PVE/CVE. This paper is very useful in contributing to the existing literature on the role of women in PVE/CVE efforts and beneficial for policy-makers and law enforcement agencies in curbing such criminality.
    Keywords: Violent Extremism; Terrorism; Women; Law; Countering Violent Extremism; Preventing Violent Extremism.
    JEL: K10 K14 K19
    Date: 2019–02–20
  14. By: Ashairi Suliman (Faculty of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Mohamed Yusoff Mohd Nor Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Melor Md Yunus Author-3-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - The implementation of Dual-Language Programmes (DLP) in the teaching and learning of Science and Mathematics is an initiative under the 'Upholding the Malay Language and Strengthening the English Language' (MBMMBI) policy. Though it has some similarities with the previous policy known as 'English for the Teaching of Science and Mathematics' (PPSMI), its execution is idiosyncratic in its own way. Since its inception in 2016, the programme has entered its third cycle involving students in primary and secondary schools in Malaysia. The curiosity to scrutinise the programme implementation has led to this study. The study aims to investigate the execution of this programme and to assess its sustainability. Methodology/Technique - Gleaning through the students' language capabilities, attitudes, teachers' support and acceptance of the programme, the study uses a questionnaire with open-ended questions and focus group discussions to unravel the aforementioned issues. 1,530 students from secondary schools across Malaysia were selected as the respondents of this study. Findings - The results reveal findings that may represent a measure on the direction of this programme. Looking from the student perspective, the challenges confronted in addition to those put forward may further serve as an indicator for the sustainability of the program. Novelty - This study infers how the programme can be further enhanced in terms of its implementation in its fourth year since inception. The findings of this study may assist policy makers in shaping the direction of the programme.
    Keywords: Dual-Language Programme (DLP); Sustainability; Science and Mathematics; Students; Policy and Programme Implementation.
    JEL: A20 A23 A29
    Date: 2019–02–22
  15. By: Asrowi (Universitas Sebelas Maret, Ir. Sutami Street 36A, 57126, Surakarta, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - Junior high schools have realized the need for resilience to prevent and respond to bullying. Resilience can help students better respond to bullying. Enhancing this construct can support the efforts of schools to create a supportive and safe learning environment. Methodology/Technique - This research examines a regional sample of 404 Indonesian junior high school students located in Central Java between the ages of 13 and 15. The study explores the connection between experiences with bullying and resilience by examining whether resilient students seem to be significantly affected at school. Findings - The findings of the study indicate that resilience has the potential to prevent the instance of bullying. Students with high resilience were identified as being able to mitigate the effect of bullying in school.
    Keywords: Level; Bullying Experience; Gender; Age
    JEL: A20 A22 A29
    Date: 2019–02–20
  16. By: Rosenkranz, Peter (Asian Development Bank); Lee, Junkyu (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The recent rise of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in some Asian economies calls for close analysis of the determinants, the potential macrofinancial feedback effects, and the implications for financial stability in the region. Using a dynamic panel model, we assess the determinants of the evolution of bankspecific NPLs in Asia and find that macroeconomic conditions and bank-specific factors—such as rapid credit growth and excessive bank lending—contribute to the buildup of NPLs. Further, a panel vector autoregression analysis of macrofinancial implications of NPLs in emerging Asia offers significant evidence for the feedback effects of NPLs on the real economy and financial variables. Impulse response functions demonstrate that a rising NPL ratio decreases gross domestic product growth and credit supply and increases unemployment rate. Our findings underline the importance of considering policy options to swiftly and effectively manage and respond to a buildup of NPLs. The national and regional mechanisms underlying NPL resolution are important for safeguarding financial stability in an increasingly interconnected global financial system.
    Keywords: dynamic panel model; emerging Asia; financial stability; macrofinancial feedback effects; nonperforming loans; panel vector autoregression model
    JEL: C32 C33 E44 G21 O16
    Date: 2019–03–14
  17. By: Quan-Hoang Vuong
    Abstract: In an age of reform, Vietnam’s financial systems have come to a critical stage in which the quality of policy-making, independence of the central banking operations and over-risk controls will ultimately be required if the country is set to move forward in a sustainable fashion. Analysts may have different views about Vietnam’s financial economy, but all agree that it has evolved and grown fast over the past three decades. The next course of development will depend on how Vietnamese society views raison d’être of its financial systems and financial health. But the process will much depend on the economic growth of the economy as a whole. Failing to support a sustained growth puts VFS’s existence at risk as economic growth helps mitigate higher risk-taking behavior and contain instability in less competitive markets.
    Keywords: Financial economy; Reforms; Emerging market; Money market; Capital market
    JEL: E44 E58 F36 G00
    Date: 2019–03–21
  18. By: Syarifah Farradinna (Universitas Islam Riau Jalan Kaharuddin Nasution no. 113, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Tengku Nila Fadhlia Author-2-Workplace-Name: Fakultas Psikologi, Universitas Islam Riau Jalan Kaharuddin Nasution No. 113, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Dan Azmansyah Author-3-Workplace-Name: Fakultas Ekonomi, Program Studi Manajemen, Universitas Islam Riau Jalan Kaharuddin Nasution No. 113, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - Entrepreneurs are one of the important contributors to increasing non-agricultural economic income and developing micro, small and medium enterprises. In Indonesia, entrepreneurial orientation has empirically proven that psychological factors affect individuals in improving the economy of society. The concept of psychological resilience as the development of models to predict the events and situations of failure. In certain circumstances difficulties cannot be avoided, a person with psychological resilience is able to reduce the problem by creating a new situation. Individuals who have strong personality characteristics thought to be one important factor in the process of creation and development of enterprises. Methodology/Technique - The scale used in this study consisted of a scale big five personality (Openness) McCrae & Costa (2004), The Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SRQ) by Brown et al (1999), The Work Locus of Control Scale (WLCS) by Spector (1988) as modified by Spector (2004), and Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC) compiled by Connor & Davidson (2003) as modified by Manzano and Ayala (2013). A total of 238 micro businesses have voluntarily participated. Findings - The results of path analysis showed that the openness personality directly (ß = 0.131) was significantly associated with resilience. Similarly, the personality trait through self-regulation shows indirect influence on resilience (p1 p3 0.027 x 0.175 = 0.0047) significantly. Novelty - The contributions of personality openness and self-regulation of the resilience of 0.136 or 13.6%. It can be concluded that indirectly associated the entrepreneur's psychological resilience of the personality trait through self-regulation significantly.
    Keywords: Personality Traits; Locus of Control; Self-regulation; Entrepreneurs; Psychological Resilience.
    JEL: M50 M59
    Date: 2019–02–26
  19. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Industry - Industrial Economics International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets
    Date: 2018–09
  20. By: Zaiton Hamin (Faculty of Law, University Teknologi MARA, Malaysia. Author-2-Name: Ahmad Ridhwan Abd Rani Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, UiTM Shah Alam 40450, Selangor, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - This paper aims to examine the role of judges and the reality of the plea-bargaining process from the perspective of the judiciary, focusing primarily on their perceptions on the new law and their role and the problems facing them in implementing the law. Methodology/Technique - This paper adopts a qualitative methodology, in which the primary data is obtained from semi-structured interviews with 20 respondents comprising of the stakeholders in the criminal justice system. The secondary data is obtained from analysing the CPC and other library-based sources. Findings - The research reveals that judges are facing some problems derived from the law itself which makes the new plea-bargaining process unappealing to them. Consequently, judges have invented their solutions either by reverting to the old practice or imposing on the parties their terms in disposing of the case through judge-prompted plea-bargain. Novelty - This paper is significant in providing some evidence of the procedural difficulties faced by judges in hearing plea-bargaining application at the pre-trial stage.
    Keywords: Criminal Procedure; Judiciary; Pre-trial Stage; Plea-Bargaining Process; Plea of Guilty.
    JEL: K40 K49
    Date: 2019–02–22
  21. By: Volovik, Nadezhda (Воловик, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: With the development of Eurasian economic integration, the number of countries expressing a desire to join the free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is increasing. In addition to Vietnam, with which the process of forming an FTA has already begun, about 40 countries are ready to sign similar Agreements with the EAEU, including India and China. By decision of a number of Western countries and, above all, the US, there was a noticeable reduction in access to their markets for Chinese export products, protectionist measures were introduced, customs duties were increased, etc., which forced China to search for new approaches to its foreign economic activity. Among them - the search for new markets, resources and supply chains, which ultimately could lead to a noticeable reduction in the cost of Chinese products and increase its competitiveness. This is reflected in the concepts of the “Economic Belt of the Silk Road” and “Sea Silk Road of the 21st Century”, which received the general name “One Belt and One Road”, which today represents one of the main directions of the foreign economic and foreign policy of China.
    Date: 2019–03
  22. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Commodities Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth Poverty Reduction - Inequality Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Urban Development - Urban Economic Development
    Date: 2018–09
  23. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population - Communicable Diseases Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Economics & Finance Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Service Management and Delivery Health, Nutrition and Population - Reproductive Health Industry - Health Care Services Industry
    Date: 2018–09
  24. By: Ivana Capozza (OECD); Rachel Samson (Carist Consulting)
    Abstract: This paper provides a cross-country review of progress towards green growth in selected emerging market economies that are members or partners of the OECD. It draws on the country studies conducted within the OECD Environmental Performance Review Programme for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Turkey between 2013 and 2019. It presents the main achievements in the countries reviewed, along with common trends and policy challenges. It provides insights into the effectiveness and efficiency of green growth policy frameworks and measures, which may provide useful lessons for other OECD and partner countries.
    Keywords: clean technology, environment and development, environmental policy, environmental taxes and subsidies, green growth, infrastructure, natural resources
    JEL: O13 O44 Q55 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2019–03–15
  25. By: S Waluyo, Yoyok; Widodo, Tri; Darwin, Muhadjir; Sukamdi, Sukamdi; Mulyadi, Mulyadi
    Abstract: Outsourcing is sensitive subject in Indonesia, not only from manpower or employment point of views but also from the public policy angle. There were some violations happened at banking industry on outsourcing implementation. One example can be given when bank assigned outsourcing workers for core type of job, instead of supporting job as required by regulations. This is an example where outsourcing workers have limited avenue to seek for assistance to defend their rights for any dispute settlement and resolution. At least at the bipartite level when there is violation against their rights as a worker, including violation of employment rights, they have no representative to defend their employment rights. Generally, outsourcing workers have limited access or no union labor neither at outsourcing service provider as their employer or at their service user where they are currently assigned. However, though there are some “unfortunate” situations faced by outsourcing workers, but there are also situation where there are banks provide compensation and/or benefit and/or opportunities better than the law and decree requirements through outsourcing agencies. Furthermore, outsourcing workers who are placed in some banks have opportunities to enrolled in trainings as part of job requirements. Workers are also well prioritized for banks’ permanent role candidate selection. The outsourcing practice in Indonesia banking industry, specifically on how outsourcing workers received their employment rights including other added value benefits, have become the interest of researchers to have further study and analysis on the rationales. The research focusing on 3 different bank categories who are implementing outsourcing arrangements for their routine operations; 2 state-owned banks, 2 private-owned banks, and 2 foreign banks. The research and analysis should be able to complement previous studies on the outsourcing implementation. The purpose of the research is to have deep understanding on the outsourcing implementation in the banking industry, specifically whether banks have fulfilled obligations as required by the regulations, including outsourcing workers’ rights. Research have resulted with: 1) banking industry outsourcing workers’ rights characteristic have already implemented as required by the relevant labor regulations. 2) As outsourcing user, 3 bank categories have fulfilled the completion of compensation and benefit as required by the Manpower Law number 13 Year 2003, including workers’ employment rights; wages, overtime pay, other forms of other welfare aspects, and type of work performed by outsourcing workers. And 3) Regulator or Government that governing the outsourcing implementation require banks to comply and implement regulations and policies as required.
    Keywords: outsourcing, industrial relations, and public policy
    JEL: J53 J58
    Date: 2019–03–11
  26. By: Morgan, Peter J. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Trinh, Long Q. (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: A growing literature has examined the role of financial literacy in an individual’s income, saving behavior and the use of various financial products. However, so far, no one has examined the relationship between financial literacy and the awareness and adoption of financial technology (fintech) products, i.e., financial products provided via internet-based and mobile-based platforms. This paper examines this relationship in a developing country, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). We use information collected in the Lao PDR using the standardized questionnaire developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development International Network on Financial Education (OECD/INFE) to calculate our financial literacy. We find that a higher level of financial literacy has strong and positive effects on an individual’s awareness of fintech products. This result still holds when we use a set of instrumental variables for the financial literacy variable. However, there is insufficient data to find a significant relationship between financial literacy and the use of fintech products.
    Keywords: financial literacy; financial behavior; fintech; awareness of fintech; household saving; Lao PDR
    JEL: D14 G11 J26
    Date: 2019–03–18
  27. By: Sinta, Nur
    Abstract: This paper aims at proving empirically the superiority of an explanation for recent financial crises in emerging countries which combines endogenous and exogenous factors rather than focusing only on one of these two kinds of factors. To this end, empirical analysis on estimates of random effects models for statistics of Fisher is built. Elements of a similar explanation have been made in the context of a particular crisis. This contribution covers the crises (Mexican 1994, Asian 1997 and Russian 1998), thus covering most of the financial crises that took place during the last decade of the twentieth century.
    Keywords: Financial crisis
    JEL: G01
    Date: 2018
  28. By: Rostiana (Faculty of Psychology, Universitas Tarumanagara, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Daniel Lie Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Psychology- Universitas Tarumanagara, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - Individual work performance (IWP) has been researched time and time again in the past few decades. Interestingly enough, existing research on IWP focuses mainly on the area of work production and lacks an in-depth holistic understanding of IWP and other interrelated work behaviours. In this study, IWP is explored in the context of a multidimensional construct that includes the dimensions of task, contextual, and counterproductive behaviours. The purpose of this research is to investigate whether the three variables of work engagement (WE), psychological empowerment (PE), and subjective well-being (SWB) mediate and correlate with the relationship between perceived organisational support (POS) and IWP. Methodology/Technique - 780 employees from 4 organisations in Jakarta were selected to participate in this study. The respondents were tasked with responding to five questionnaires including (1) IWP of Koopmans, (2) POS of Eisenberger, (3) SWB of Diener, (4) WE of Baker and Schaufeli, (5) PE of Spreitzer. The data was analysed using structural equation modelling. Findings - The results show that the proposed structural model aligns with the empirical data [X2 (0, N = 780) = 0, p = 1.000; RMSEA=.000]. This research concludes that the relationship between POS and IWP is best mediated by either WE, PE or SWB. Among the three mediators, WE plays the greatest role in mediating the relationship between POS and IWP. Novelty - These findings expand on previous research on the weak relationship between POS and IWP.
    Keywords: Individual Work Performance; Perceived Organizational Support; Psychological Empowerment; Subjective Well-being; Work Engagement.
    JEL: L20 L25 L29
    Date: 2019–02–25
  29. By: Tanaka, Katsuto (Gakushuin University); Xiao, Weilin (Zhejiang University); Yu, Jun (School of Economics and Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper is concerned about the problem of estimating the drift parameters in the fractional Vasicek model from a continuous record of observations. Based on the Girsanov theorem for the fractional Brownian motion, the maximum likelihood (ML) method is used. The asymptotic theory for the ML estimates (MLE) is established in the stationary case, the explosive case, and the null recurrent case for the entire range of the Hurst parameter, providing a complete treatment of asymptotic analysis. It is shown that changing the sign of the persistence parameter will change the asymptotic theory for the MLE, including the rate of convergence and the limiting distribution. It is also found that the asymptotic theory depends on the value of the Hurst parameter.
    Keywords: Maximum likelihood estimate; Fractional Vasicek model; Asymptotic distribution; Stationary process; Explosive process; Null recurrent process
    JEL: C15 C22 C32
    Date: 2019–03–03
  30. By: Thanh Doan, Ha Thi (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Utilizing firm-level data during 2010–2015, we examine the frequency and characteristics of multi-product firms in Vietnamese manufacturing. Our major findings are as follows. First, multi-product firms are larger, more capital-intensive, more productive, and are more likely to export. Second, multi-product firms are active in the market. Approximately 60% of firms adjust their product scope within a 6-year period. Third, the contribution of firms’ product extensive margin to aggregate output growth is limited due to the prevalence of product dropping, which offsets the positive impact of product adding. Much of output growth during the period is thus generated by the intensive margin. Turning to the link between tariff reduction and product shedding, we do not detect any significant impact. However, we find that exporters play an important role in product adding, which suggests that they may contribute to aggregate growth through the channeling of product scope expansion. Contrary to our expectations, our analysis offers limited support for the heterogeneity of product turnover across ownership types. While we find that state-owned enterprises are more likely to spread economic activities across products and industries, there is little difference in terms of product churning among foreign direct investment, state-owned enterprises, and the domestic private sector.
    Keywords: multi-product firms; trade liberalization
    JEL: F15 L23
    Date: 2019–01–23
  31. By: Smoke, Paul (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Considerable attention has been given to enhancing subnational development finance in response to the 2008 global financial crisis and recent global development agendas, including the Sustainable Development Goals, Financing for Development, and Habitat III/New Urban Agenda. Much work on this topic is fragmented, focusing on specific elements of development finance: fiscal transfers, capital market access, public-sector lending agencies, or public–private partnerships. Most countries, however, have a range of subnational governments with varying needs and capacities that require different and evolving mixes of development finance mechanisms. Enabling greater subnational borrowing is often desirable but requires adoption of other reform policies to improve the fiscal capacity and creditworthiness of subnational governments over time. We review the rationale and potential for improving subnational development finance, outline the overall landscape of institutional arrangements available for this purpose, and consider broad challenges involved. Based on a review of global practice and experience in selected Asian developing countries with a range of special entities and innovations to enhance subnational investment, we propose a more integrated, strategic approach to building subnational development finance.
    Keywords: subnational government finance; intergovernmental transfers; subnational government debt; subnational government financial intermediaries; Asia
    JEL: H70 H71 H72 H74 H77
    Date: 2019–02–11
  32. By: Qiu, Yue (WISE and School of Economics, Xiamen University); Xie, Tian (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Yu, Jun (School of Economics and Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University); Zhou, Qiankun (Department of Economics, Louisiana State University)
    Abstract: The linkage among the realized volatilities across component stocks are important when modeling and forecasting the relevant index volatility. In this paper, the linkage is measured via an extended Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach under a panel heterogeneous autoregression model where unobserved common factors in errors are assumed. Consistency of the CCE estimator is obtained. The common factors are extracted using the principal component analysis. Empirical studies show that realized volatility models exploiting the linkage effects lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance, for example, an up to 32% increase in the pseudo R2. We also conduct various forecasting exercises on the the linkage variables that compare conventional regression methods with popular machine learning techniques.
    Keywords: Volatility Forecasting; Heterogeneous autoregression; Common correlated effect; Factor analysis; Random forest
    JEL: C31 C32 G12 G17
    Date: 2019–03–02
  33. By: Taro Komatsu
    Abstract: Timor-Leste is a post-conflict nation that marked its independence in 2002, becoming the newest sovereign state in Asia. Due to prolonged periods of armed conflict and poverty worsened by the conflict, one-fifth of the population (200,000 people) were unable to complete their basic education. Against this background, the Timor-Leste government started the Equivalency Program (EP) in 2010, an accelerated education program for youths and adults whose education was interrupted. The program offers a condensed basic education curriculum that is equivalent to primary and pre-secondary education. This paper examines the motives, experiences and circumstances of the youth and adult learners who have had the opportunity to receive second-chance education (SCE) in Timor-Leste. The study describes their life journeys in a conflict-affected environment with the goal of understanding the meaning of learning as they attend an education program. This study utilized a mixed methods approach, with life-story interviews being the primary data-collection method, complemented by focus-group interviews and a questionnaire survey. The study finds that many participants indicate a longing to learn again, primarily from an intrinsic desire to seek greater knowledge and gain self-confidence, a desire that grew with the emergence of the post-war society. Their life-stories illuminate the ordeals of losing the opportunity for schooling amidst conflict, with many despairing that they had become a ‘lost generation.’ EP restored their chance to attain the inner satisfaction of learning and a sense of self-worth as they gained a sense of autonomy and agency. Their desire to learn was bolstered by the post-conflict euphoria and the advent of a new society that seemed to promise a better future. This euphoria offers a momentum that can be used to achieve learning for all and promote human dignity.
    Keywords: Second-chance education, Timor-Leste, conflict, life-story interviews, youth
    Date: 2019–01
  34. By: Kuwahara, Satoshi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sagara, Megumi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The credit risk database (CRD) makes it possible to mitigate the problem of information asymmetry between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and financial institutions and contributes to improving SMEs’ access to finance by collecting a large number of financial statements through the mechanism of SME finances and establishing a robust statistical model. We use the CRD in Japan, confirm the situation in Japan, and highlight the CRD’s contribution to evaluating the creditworthiness of SMEs. We also explain how to establish the CRD as a financial infrastructure, while indicating that the CRD and the scoring model based on it have maintained their quality owing to their operating system. We hope our experience contributes to the introduction of a statistical credit risk database composed of a large number of anonymous financial statement data in other countries and that the CRD helps to improve SMEs’ access to finance as a financial infrastructure.
    Keywords: credit risk database; CRD creditworthiness; SMEs in Japan
    JEL: G21 G28 G32
    Date: 2019–02–21
  35. By: Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio; Giménez Gómez, José M. (José Manuel); Vilella, Cori
    Abstract: This paper proposes to use claims models as a reasonable and operative alternative in order to allocate CO2 emissions by countries (or groups), in the framework of multilateral negotiations and the fight against climate change. This framework has two characteristics which fits this type of claims models: a restrictive global endowment (the maximum world emissions permitted) and the excess of emissions (and demand) by countries. The proposed methodology consists on establishing some requirements that any admissible distribution solution should satisfy, examining a broad group of theoretical distribution solutions emerged from the specific literature and analyzing their application according to reasonable ordering criteria linked to equity and stability properties. The proposed theoretical framework is applied empirically to an analysis by groups of countries in the period 2010- 2050, using various world endowments from Meinshausen et al. (2009), together with claims forecasts associated with the RCP scenarios. The results obtained point out that for intermediate claims scenarios the solutions associated with the constrained equal awards (CEA) and α-minimal (α-min) solutions are typically selected. In particular, these two solutions are clearly equity-sensitive, where the efforts to be made by Asia and OECD are very important, as a whole, and especially in the case of the CEA. Given these circumstances, and the better balance between equity and proportionality associated to the α-min allocation methodology maybe that one would be more operative and acceptable. Keywords: Carbon emissions, claims problem, climate change policy JEL classification: D7, H4, H8, Q58, Q54
    Keywords: Emissions atmosfèriques, Canvis climàtics -- Política governamental, 32 - Política, 504 - Ciències del medi ambient,
    Date: 2018
  36. By: Sachs, Jeffrey D. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Woo, Wing Thye (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: In 2017, global investment in renewables and energy efficiency declined by 3% and there is a risk that it will slow further; clearly fossil fuels still dominate energy investment. This could threaten the expansion of green energy needed to provide energy security and meet climate and clean air goals. Several developed and developing economies are still following pro-coal energy policies and the extra CO2 generated by new coal-fired power plants could more than wipe out any reductions in emissions made by other nations. Finance is the engine of development of infrastructure projects, including energy projects. Generally financial institutions show more interest in fossil fuel projects than green projects, mainly because there are still several risks associated with these new technologies and they offer a lower rate of return. If we want to achieve sustainable development goals, we need to open a new file for green projects and scale up the financing of investments that provide environmental benefits, through new financial instruments and new policies, such as green bonds, green banks, carbon market instruments, fiscal policy, green central banking, financial technologies, community-based green funds, etc., which are collectively known as “green finance”.
    Keywords: green finance; renewable energy; CO2 emissions; Paris Agreement; sustainable development goals; SDGs
    JEL: O44 Q56 Q59
    Date: 2019–01–22
  37. By: Podhorsky, Andrea (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper develops a microeconomic model of bitcoin production to analyze the economic effects of the Bitcoin protocol. I view the bitcoin as a tradable commodity that is produced by miners and whose supply is managed by the protocol. The findings show that bitcoin’s volatile price path and inefficiency are related, and that both are a consequence of the protocol’s system of supply management. I characterize the fundamental value of a bitcoin and demonstrate that the return on bitcoin appreciates proportionally to the rate of increase in the level of difficulty. In the model, where the price of a bitcoin is based on marginal production costs, successive positive demand shocks result in a rapidly increasing price path that may be mistaken for a bubble. The generalized supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test is used to demonstrate that the model is able to account for the explosive behavior in the bitcoin price path, providing strong evidence that bitcoin is not a bubble. I also show that the difficulty adjustment mechanism results in social welfare losses from 17 March 2014 to 13 January 2019 of $323.8 million, which is about 9.3% of the miners’ total electricity costs during this time period.
    Keywords: bitcoin; digital coins; Bitcoin protocol; cryptocurrency; bitcoin bubble
    JEL: F30 G00 G11
    Date: 2019–03–19
  38. By: Aboojafari, Roohollah (Asian Development Bank Institute); Daliri, Alireza (Asian Development Bank Institute); Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Mokhtari, Mohammad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Ekhtiari, Mohsen (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in their growth stage reach the point where, on the one hand, personal resources do not meet their needs, and, on the other, they do not have enough collateral to attract external finance. Access to finance can be facilitated by obtaining loans from financial institutions backed by governmental credit guarantees. Therefore, the development of a sound credit guarantee scheme will be an important step in filling the financing gap of SMEs. We investigate the situation of the credit guarantee scheme for SMEs in Iran by using the available data and interviews with activists from this field with the grounded theory method. We show the weaknesses of the Iranian credit guarantee scheme, and based on the analysis, present solutions and policy recommendations in accordance with the social and economic environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The most important problem is the lack of a credit database for comprehensive assessment of SMEs, especially knowledge-based enterprises. The lack of a robust database makes it impossible to carry out a comprehensive evaluation because these models require a large amount of data. The lack of accurate models makes it difficult to rate credit status and thus to issue credit guarantees. In addition, the current level of the capital of the credit guarantee funds in Iran is not sufficient given the large number of SMEs in the country.
    Keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); knowledge-based enterprises; credit guarantee scheme (CGS); comprehensive credit evaluation
    JEL: C52 G32 H81 O10
    Date: 2019–03–13
  39. By: Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, NATIXIS; Institute for Emerging Market Studies , Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jianwei Xu (Associate professor, Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: Drawing on a global database of media articles, we quantitatively assess perceptions of ChinaÃs Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in different countries and regions. We find that the BRI is generally positively received. All regions as a whole, except South Asia, have a positive perception of the BRI, but there are marked differences at the country level, with some countries in all regions having very negative views. Interestingly, there is no significant difference in perceptions of the BRI between countries that officially participate in the BRI and those that do not. We also use our dataset of media articles to identify the topics that are most frequently associated with the BRI. The most common topics are trade and investment. Finally, we use regression analysis to identify how the frequency with which these topics are discussed in the news affects the perceptions of the BRI in different countries. We find that the more frequently trade is mentioned in the media, the more negative a countryÃs perception of the BRI tends to be. On the other hand, while investment under the BRI seems also to attract attention in the media, it is not statistically relevant for countriesà perceptions of the BRI.
    Date: 2019–03
  40. By: Adegboye, Oyelola A. (Australian Institute of Tropical Health & Medicine, James Cook University); Fujii, Tomoki (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Leung, Denis H.Y. (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: Non-response is a commonly encountered problem in many population-based surveys. Broadly speaking, non-response can be due to refusal or failure to contact the sample units. Although both types of non-response may lead to bias, there is much evidence to indicate that it is much easier to reduce the proportion of non-contacts than to do the same with refusals. In this article, we use data collected from a nationally-representative survey under the Demographic and Health Surveys program to study non-response due to refusals to HIV testing in Malawi. We review existing estimation methods and propose novel approaches to the estimation of HIV prevalence that adjust for refusal behaviour. We then explain the data requirement and practical implications of the conventional and proposed approaches. Finally, we provide some general recommendations for handling non-response due to refusals and we highlight the challenges in working with Demographic and Health Surveys and explore different approaches to statistical estimation in the presence of refusals. Our results show that variation in the estimated HIV prevalence across different estimators is due largely to those who already know their HIV test results. In the case of Malawi, variations in the prevalence estimates due to refusals for women are larger than those for men.
    Keywords: Bias; Demographic and Health Surveys; Missing data; Non-response; Refusals; Malawi
    Date: 2019–02–25

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