nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2019‒02‒11
24 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The Rice Economy and the Role of Policy in Southeast Asia By Roehlano M. Briones
  2. Contexts, Challenges, and Opportunities for Agrobiodiversity Mainstreaming, Conservation, and Sustainable Use in Southeast Asia By Wayne Nelles
  3. Vietnam; Technical Assistance Report-Report on Residential Property Price Statistics Capacity Development Mission By International Monetary Fund
  4. Competency Certification for Agricultural Workers in Southeast Asia By Bernie S. Justimbaste; Edwin P. Bacani
  5. Investigating the causal relationship between exchange rate variability and palm oil export: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and nonlinear ARDL approaches By Lee, Kam Weng; Masih, Mansur
  6. Made in Singapore By Chang, Pao-Li; Nguyen, Phuong T. B.
  7. Utilizarea optima a materiei prime agricole: aspect metodologic By Gribincea, Alexandru
  8. Food Reserve Management and Policies in Southeast Asia By Bernice Anne C. Darvin; Paul S. Teng
  9. Making the most of tourism in Indonesia to promote sustainable regional development By Patrice Ollivaud; Peter Haxton
  10. Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia’s Local Currency Bond Market By David A. Grigorian
  11. Raising more public revenue in Indonesia in a growth - and equity-friendly way By Christine Lewis
  12. Scaling Up Agroforestry Promotion for Sustainable Development of Selected Smallholder Farmers in the Philippines By Rowena Ezpranza D. Cabahug; Romnick S. Baliton; Leila D. Landicho; Reynaldo A. Comia; Roselyn F. Paelmo
  13. The Hidden Role of Piped Water in the Prevention of Obesity in Developing Countries. Experimental and Non-Experimental Evidence. By Patricia I. Ritter
  14. Enhancing the Marketing Capacity of Agricultural Cooperatives in Hoa Vang District, Da Nang City, Vietnam By Hai Ho; Lien Pham; Tien Du; Xuan Quach
  15. Effect of Microcrystalline Cellulose Reinforcement on Mechanical and Water Barrier Properties of Sugar Palm Starch Biocomposite Films By Mohd Sapuan Salit
  16. Developing a KM System: SEARCA's Experience By Nova A. Ramos; Maria Monina Cecilia A. Villena; Mariliza V. Ticsay; Maria Celeste H. Cadiz
  17. Competition, Markups, and Gains from Trade: A Quantitative Analysis of China Between 1995 and 2004 By Hsu, Wen-Tai; Lu, Yi; Wu, Guiying Laura
  18. Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Technical Assistance Report-Report on National Accounts Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund
  19. Effect of Enforcement Shock on Pushers' Activities: Evidence from an Asian Drug-Selling Gang By Leong, Kaiwen; Li, Huailu; Xu, Haibo
  20. Impact of Decentralized Electrification Projects on Sustainable Development: A Meta-Analysis By Jean-Claude Berthelemy; Arnaud Millien
  21. Identifying Latent Grouped Patterns in Cointegrated Panels By Huang, Wenxin; Jin, Sainan; Su, Liangjun
  22. The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks for In flation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia By David Finck; Peter Tillmann
  23. On Factor Models with Random Missing: EM Estimation, Inference, and Cross Validation By Su, Liangjun; Miao, Ke; Jin, Sainan
  24. Social groups and credit shocks: Evidence of inequalities in consumption smoothing By Vibhor Saxena; Ishaan Bindal; Philippe LeMay-Boucher

  1. By: Roehlano M. Briones
    Abstract: Rice is the key staple of Southeast Asia (SEA), as well as one of its most widely grown crops. The region includes some of the largest rice producers in the world, together with two of the top three exporters (Thailand and Vietnam), and two of the world's top importers (Indonesia and the Philippines). The region has gained prominence as an early adopter of key production innovations, such as modern inbred varieties and hybrid rice. Policy is a key driver of the rice economy, alongside market forces, technology, and the environment. Production support policies, such as public investments in irrigation, the extension bureaucracy, as well as credit and input subsidies, were instrumental in the spread of modern rice varieties. Up to now, rice commands the most public resources in SEA compared with any other crop. Governments have also intervened actively in rice markets, invoking the key role of rice in food security and livelihoods. On the other hand, the region is also active in the promotion of regional economic integration, spearheaded by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Its 10 member states: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, cover all the independent territories of SEA, except for Timor-Leste. This background paper for the Rice Policy Roundtable takes a timely look at rice policies in SEA to offer guidance for policymakers and other stakeholders under current and future market realities. It focuses on developing economies in the region, namely, the CLMV countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam), and the ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand). The objectives of the Roundtable were: To examine rice policies across the countries in SEA; To abstract lessons from the country experiences; To understand knowledge gaps, and where appropriate, list activities such as research and knowledge management that could be undertaken per country or across the region; and To craft possible policy inputs to be presented to governments, particularly  the Philippines. The remainder of this background paper is organized as follows: Section 2 provides a background on Southeast Asian rice economies by examining longterm trends and outlook on the future of the rice economy; Section 3 presents the various policy regimes for rice in developing SEA; Section 4 provides a synthesis and critical assessment of these policies; and Section 5 concludes and identifies knowledge gaps as a guide to future policy research.
    Keywords: rice economy, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Wayne Nelles
    Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to some critical issues pertaining to agrobiodiversity mainstreaming, conservation, and sustainable use in Southeast Asia. An earlier draft initially served as a background paper for a regional agrobiodiversity workshop organized by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) and the ASEAN Center for Biodiversity (ACB), hosted by Maejo University (MJU) in Chiang Mai, Thailand on 12–14 September 2017.
    Keywords: conservation, agrobiodiversity mainstreaming, sustainability, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2018
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during July 9–13, 2018 to assist the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) with the development of a residential property price index (RPPI). This was the first mission conducted to Vietnam under the auspices of the multi-annual STA Data for Decisions (D4D) trust fund. The main objective of TA provided to Vietnam under the D4D will be to assist the GSO to develop an RPPI. The GSO recently launched two initiatives to collect potential source data for the RPPI since taxation data are unreliable in respect of reported transaction prices, and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) does not collect loan level mortgage data.
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;Vietnam;
    Date: 2019–01–10
  4. By: Bernie S. Justimbaste; Edwin P. Bacani
    Abstract: This is based on a background paper delivered during the Regional Workshop on Competency Certification for Agricultural Workers in Southeast Asia held on 9–10 May 2018 at SEARCA Headquarters, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines. This paper aims to provide background information on the state of competency certification for agricultural workers in selected countries in the region.Â
    Keywords: competency, competency certification, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Lee, Kam Weng; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: Exchange rate is seen as an important economic variable that affects Malaysia’s palm oil export, which the policy maker may interfere in order to ensure that it maintains its position as one of the major palm oil exporters in the world. Nevertheless, the lead-lag relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export is unclear. Similarly, it is unclear whether there exists a long run asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the lead-lag relationship between exchange rate variability and palm oil export in Malaysia and whether the relationship between the two is linear symmetric or otherwise. This study employs ARDL, VECM and VDC techniques and further extends the previous research by adopting a recent technique which is Non-linear ARDL (NARDL) by using the data extracted over the period of 2008:1 to 2017:12 from Malaysian Palm Oil Council and DataStream. Based on this study, it is found that exchange rate is the exogenous variable, while palm oil export is the endogenous variable. Further, there exists a long run asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and palm oil export. Based on such findings, it is important to note that although the exchange rate is the most exogenous variable, policy maker could, to some extent, interfere in the exchange rate regime to manipulate the palm oil export and the policy maker should take into consideration the nonlinear asymmetric relationship between them in designing a suitable policy.
    Keywords: Exchange rate, palm oil export, Malaysia, ARDL, NARDL
    JEL: C22 C58 G15
    Date: 2018–12–31
  6. By: Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Nguyen, Phuong T. B. (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we characterize the position of Singapore in global value chains and identify Singapore's key upstream and downstream trade partners. We trace how the position of Singapore in global value chains has changed in the past two decades: whether it has moved upstream or downstream, how involved it is in global value chains, how its trend compares with other major Asian exporting countries (China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan), and which key sectors of Singapore play a major role in these global trade networks.
    Keywords: Global value chain; Gross export decomposition; Value-added exports; Up-stream/downstream trade partners
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2019–01–09
  7. By: Gribincea, Alexandru
    Abstract: production in the Republic of Moldova increased in 2017 compared to the 2016 period. The positive evolution is due to the increase in the processing industry of agricultural raw materials. Innovative modern technologies seem promising for both producers and consumers of agricultural products, but their use also involves potential risks. In order to maximize innovative potential, appropriate policies must be developed to ensure that these risks are accurately identified and, if necessary, to be avoided. But the intensive application of bio and nanotechnologies leads to concerns for ecologists and population in general. Scientists are working to minimize or mitigate the negative impact of human technology on sustainable development. The measures taken include the development and use of tools, selective means that reduce the noosphere’s impact. Scientists are working to minimize or mitigate the negative impact of human technology on sustainable development. The measures taken include the development and use of tools, selective means that reduce the noosphere’s impact. Currently, according to WTO data, the largest producers and exporters of agricultural products can highlight: USA – 10%, EU – 9.5%, Brazil – 4.6%, China – 3.2%, Argentina – 2.8%, Indonesia – 2.4%, Thailand – 2.4%, Malaysia – 2.1%, Australia – 1.9%, Russia – 1.9%, India – 1.6%, New Zealand and Mexico – 3%, Chili – 1.2%. These countries export agricultural products totaling 1117 billion USD. Moldovan exports to EU countries have become a lifeline for domestic companies looking for new outlets. The aim of the research is to estimate the ways to meet internal and external needs under conditions of economic sustainability.
    Keywords: agricultural products, agriculture contribution, plant production, animal production, sustainable development, economic vector orientation
    JEL: Q1
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Bernice Anne C. Darvin; Paul S. Teng
    Abstract: Abstract Food availability is an important dimension of a country’s food security. At the regional level, the latter requires a balance between food production and trade. In Southeast Asia, “rice security†is generally equated to food security. Hence, rice is a good starting point for analyzing food reserve management and policies in the region. For many millennia, public stockpiling has been a popular strategy adopted for mitigating instability in the food supply. Building up of reserves has been a common component of food policies around the world. This policy paper, which draws substantially from the findings of the research project “Food Reserves: A Comparative Study on Food Reserve Management and Policies in Southeast Asia,†compares the experiences and challenges in public food stockpiling of selected Southeast Asian countries, and provides actions and recommendations on how to make food stockpiling a viable strategy toward achieving food security at the national and regional levels. Â
    Keywords: rice security, stockpiling, food reserve, food availability, food, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Patrice Ollivaud; Peter Haxton
    Abstract: Tourism has boomed in Indonesia in recent years and is already one of the main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Indonesia has rich and diverse natural assets, whose tourism potential remains underutilised. The government has an ambitious target of attracting 20 million tourists by 2019, up from nearly 14 million in 2017. The main destination will continue to be Bali. Using Bali as the preferred development model, the government wants to develop other destinations, particularly through infrastructure programmes to improve connectivity, which is a longstanding challenge for tourism as well as for regional development more generally. Enhancing the tourism-related skills of local populations will provide them with expanded job opportunities. This calls for reforms to vocational education and training. Moreover, recent efforts by the authorities to improve the business environment need to continue, including through helping firms embrace digitalisation. Tourism may be growing too fast in some destinations without adequately taking into account sustainability issues, both for the environment and local communities. Better planning and co-ordination at all levels of government and across relevant policy areas can facilitate more sustainable tourism development.This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia ( y-indonesia.htm).
    Keywords: digitalisation, Indonesia, infrastructure, regional development, sustainable development, tourism, vocational education and training
    JEL: L83 R58 Q56 H54
    Date: 2019–02–13
  10. By: David A. Grigorian
    Abstract: Malaysia’s local currency debt market is one of the most liquid public debt markets in the world. In recent years, the growing share of nonresident holders of debt has been a source of concern for policymakers as a reason behind exchange rate volatility. The paper provides an overview of the recent developments in the conventional debt market. It builds an empirical two-stage model to estimate the main drivers of debt capital flows to Malaysia. Finally, it uses a GARCH model to test the hypothesis that nonresident flows are behind the observed exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the public debt market in Malaysia responds adequately to both pull and push factors and find no firm evidence that nonresident flows cause volatility in the onshore foreign exchange market.
    Date: 2019–01–25
  11. By: Christine Lewis
    Abstract: Indonesia’s government needs more revenue to fund spending that can boost GDP growth, raise well-being and reduce poverty. The tax-to-GDP ratio is low relative to other emerging market economies. The difficulty is to raise revenues without denting growth or worsening inequality. Successive reforms have modernised the tax administration and increased the number of taxpayers. Nonetheless, raising compliance is an ongoing challenge and investing in the tax administration rightly remains a government priority. There is also scope to improve the design of various taxes. Broadening the bases of income and consumption taxes would raise more revenue and reduce distortions. Expanding property taxation, if appropriately implemented, could provide additional funds for local governments. Taxes can also be used more extensively to discourage activities and behaviours with negative health and environmental externalities. Strengthening property rights and fighting illegal extraction would increase revenues from Indonesia’s natural resource wealth.This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Indonesia ( y-indonesia.htm).
    Keywords: business tax, consumption tax, green taxation, income tax, Indonesia, natural resources taxation, property tax, tax compliance, tax systems
    JEL: H23 H24 H25 H26
    Date: 2019–02–13
  12. By: Rowena Ezpranza D. Cabahug; Romnick S. Baliton; Leila D. Landicho; Reynaldo A. Comia; Roselyn F. Paelmo
    Abstract: This paper highlights the results of a year-long research, which looked at the food security potentials of agroforestry systems in selected upland communities in the provinces of Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, and Quezon in the Philippines. It characterized the different agroforestry models and systems practiced by the smallholder farmers and assessed their current state in terms of social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Data gathered through transect mapping and farm visits revealed that majority of smallholder farmers in the research sites practiced agroforestry, but with varied components. Alley cropping and contour planting are the dominant agroforestry systems in Nueva Vizcaya; vegetable-based and coffee-based multistorey system are more common in Benguet; and vegetable-based multistorey systems are widely practiced in Quezon. Meanwhile, the agrobiodiversity assessment indicated that the diversity of agroforestry systems in the three study sites are low to moderate. This implies the need to improve the present agroforestry practices into more diverse systems. The analysis revealed that farmers in the three study sites have moderate to high levels of food security. However, smallholder farmers engaged in agroforestry and multiple cropping have higher levels of food security, compared with those engaged in monocropping and relay cropping. This shows that agroforestry systems help ensure food security by making multiple food products and farm components available throughout the year, at the same time, providing income for purchasing other food items. Agroforestry systems also contribute to ecological stability as it promotes biodiversity and carbon sequestration, which can significantly contribute toward climate change mitigation. The ecological and socioeconomic contributions of agroforestry provide firm basis to continuously promote agroforestry in any upland development program implemented by the government and non-government sectors.
    Keywords: agroforestry, sustainable development, food security, upland farms, food accessibility, food utilization, Philippines
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Patricia I. Ritter (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: Child obesity in developing countries is growing at an alarming pace. This study investigates whether expanding access to piped water at home can contribute to stopping this epidemic. It exploits experimental data from Morocco and longitudinal data from the Philippines and finds that access to piped water at home reduces childhood obesity rates. This study further shows that the effect seems to be generated by a re-duction in the consumption of food prepared outside the home. Finally, the study shows that the effect of access to piped water on healthy nu-tritional status is hidden, when access to piped water at home reduces diarrhea prevalence, since this in turn increases BMI.
    Keywords: Obesity, diarrhea, piped water, soft drinks, food prepared outside the home
    JEL: I12 I18 H41 O12
    Date: 2019–01
  14. By: Hai Ho; Lien Pham; Tien Du; Xuan Quach
    Abstract: Traditionally, agricultural cooperatives in developing countries focus their support solely on agricultural production, often overlooking marketing and trading activities. In many cases, this results in a mismatch between supply and demand and increases the risk of bankruptcy among cooperatives. This is true for many cooperatives in Vietnam, including those from the rural district of Hoa Vang in Da Nang City. At present, there are 43 agricultural cooperatives in Da Nang, 18 of which are located in Hoa Vang. Their products include rice, vegetables like cucumber, fruits, mushroom, meat, fishes, eggs, sesame, and ornamentals like flowers and bonsai plants. Like many others, these cooperatives do not provide support to its farmer members for trading their produce. Farmers, thus, have to rely on their own limited capacity to sell their products, usually in the local markets or restaurants. This significantly affects their productivity, as farmers do not feel confident about increasing production. It also affects the cooperatives’ branding because consumers cannot distinguish between local and sustainably produced or clean agricultural products from others. Therefore, it is important to build the capacities of cooperatives and its farmer members in terms of marketing and trading their agricultural products. It is in this context that the project titled “Enhancing the Marketing Capacity of Agricultural Cooperatives in Hoa Vang District, Da Nang City of Vietnam†was proposed. The project aimed to increase the income of farmers and ensure food safety for local residents and tourists in Da Nang through the sustainable supply of “clean†agricultural products. Clean products, in the context of this project, pertains to the produce from farmers who practice Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and do not apply chemical fertilizers or pest control. The outcomes of this project were envisioned to solve not just the current difficulties of cooperatives in HoaVang, but also for agricultural cooperatives elsewhere.
    Keywords: cooperatives, marketing capacity, marketing, GAP, Vietnam
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Mohd Sapuan Salit
    Abstract: Novel biocomposite film materials, 100 percent environmentally friendly with microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) as reinforcement in sugar palm starch (SPS)-based thermoplastic matrix were prepared through casting method. The cellulose content in the composite films varied from 0 to 10 percent w/w. Using atomic force microscopy (AFM), the morphology of the composite films was analyzed. This work is focused on the effects of MCC content on the mechanical and water vapor permeability (WVP) properties of the composites. Incorporation of the MCC to the SPS matrix increased the tensile strength, while the elongation at break decreased with MCC loading. The tensile strength value for the composite with 10 percent w/w of MCC was found maximum (11.30 MPa). Adding 1 percent MCC content significantly reduced the WVP of the composite film by 66.41 percent compared with the neat SPS film. Overall, the incorporation of MCC in the SPS-based films improved the mechanical strength and water barrier properties of the environmentally friendly composite films.
    Keywords: sugar palm starch, biodegradable films, food packaging, environmental pollution, microcrystalline cellulose, biocomposite film materials, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Nova A. Ramos; Maria Monina Cecilia A. Villena; Mariliza V. Ticsay; Maria Celeste H. Cadiz
    Abstract: The Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture’s (SEARCA) current five-year plan, its tenth, focuses on inclusive and sustainable agricultural and rural development (ISARD), described as a scheme and approach of engaging multiple stakeholders toward improving the well-being of the rural poor through their improved natural resource-based livelihoods along with supportive systems and institutions that contribute to food and nutrition security of the wider population beyond present generations. Along ISARD emphases on environmental sustainability, social inclusion, and institutions and governance, SEARCA as a knowledge managing institution with a capacity building mandate, promotes adaptive and social learning, knowledge sharing and use, and knowledge creation with a deliberate effort to capture, store, and make explicit the tangible knowledges generated by its scholars, researchers, and partners.
    Keywords: KM, SEARCA, Southeast Asia
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Hsu, Wen-Tai (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Lu, Yi (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University); Wu, Guiying Laura (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological Univeristy)
    Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade in a model with head-to-head competition using Chinese firm-level data from Economic Censuses in 1995 and 2004. We find a significant reduction in trade cost during this period, and total gains from such improved openness during this period is 7.1%. The gains are decomposed into a Ricardian component and two pro-competitive ones. The procompetitive effects account for 20% of the total gains. Moreover, the total gains from trade are 13 - 31% larger than what would result from the formula provided by ACR (Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012), which nests a class of important trade models, but without pro-competitive effects. We find that head-to-head competition is the key reason behind the larger gains, as trade flows do not reflect all of the effects via markups in an event of trade liberalization. One methodological advantage of this paper’s quantitative framework is that its application is not constrained by industrial or product classifications; thus it can be applied to countries of any size.
    Keywords: Gains from trade; Markups; Pro-competitive effects; ACR formula; Head-to-head competition; Chinese economy
    Date: 2019–01–11
  18. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: A technical assistance mission was conducted during July 2–13, 2018 to support measurement of Lao PDR’s national accounts statistics. The mission assisted with the development of a quarterly GDP time series, reviewed the published annual GDP time series, and developed recommendations to continue improving national accounts statistics compiled by the Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB). The mission built upon previous national accounts statistics missions conducted in April 2017 and January 2018.
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;
    Date: 2019–01–10
  19. By: Leong, Kaiwen (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Li, Huailu (Fundan University); Xu, Haibo (Fudan University, China)
    Abstract: We study a Singaporean drug-selling gang's dataset and empirically find that the gang's pushers purchased larger quantities of drugs during periods of enforcement shocks caused by enforcement activities targeting the gang's drug supply chain. This counter-intuitive finding can be explained by the pushers' profit targeting behavior. Given that enforcement shocks increased the pushers' cost of drugs, pushers must compensate by purchasing more drugs to sell in order to reach their profit targets.
    Keywords: crime, enforcement, labor supply
    JEL: K42
    Date: 2019–01
  20. By: Jean-Claude Berthelemy (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Arnaud Millien (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper is the first product of a project which aims to build a Collaborative Smart Mapping of Mini-grid Action (CoSMMA), whose principal objective is to identify best practice in decentralized electrification projects. By evaluation of 421 projects, from published research papers, we have built a pilot CoSMMA which proves its feasibility. Its relevance is demonstrated by a meta-analysis, which reveals the principal characteristics of decentralized electrification projects which have positive impacts on sustainable development. Four main characteristics were considered: technology (source or energy), system size (power), decision level (from local to country level), geographic location. When searching for best practice, technology and system size must be considered together, because the chosen technology may constrain the power, which is provided by the system. We find that the most popular projects, which are based on Solar Home Systems (SHS) are not the most effective. The problem with SHS is not the use of solar energy, but the small system size often chosen for SHS. Mini-grids, of larger size, especially those which use hybrid renewable sources of energy, have more positive impacts, because these systems combine the benefits of sustainability and flexibility. In terms of decision level, we find that both top-down and bottom-up approaches have advantages, with the observation of a U-shaped curve for the influence of the decision level on the probability of obtaining positive impacts. Geographical location matters, as it is very often the key to system feasibility. We find that DEPs are more effective in Latin America than in Asia, and more effective in Asia than in Africa. We also attempted to study the type of effects resulting from DEPs. Descriptive data suggest that for some types of effects, positive impacts are more likely than for others. Decentralized electrification projects have a more positive impact on Lifestyle & NICT or Household agenda than on Economic transformation or Community life. However, this pilot CoSMMA does not contain enough information to study precisely the types of effects, because some types of effects have not been studied frequently in the existing literature. This is the case, for instance, for environmental effects, which have been rarely measured scientifically. Finally, we attempted to broaden our information set by including expert data, which was entered into the CoSMMA meta-analysis. We define expert data as data that are not supported by statistical tests with measures of significance, whereas the evaluations based on scientific data were supported by statistical tests of significance. The expert data may be valid, but our attempt to include it in the analysis failed at this stage. The determinants of unproven effects appear to be quite different from the determinants of proven effects in our meta-analysis, and using expert data would imply merging proven and unproven effects, which would totally blur the conclusions.
    Keywords: Decentralized electrification,sustainable development,impact assessment,meta-analysis
    Date: 2018–11–15
  21. By: Huang, Wenxin (Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Jin, Sainan (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Su, Liangjun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We consider a panel cointegration model with latent group structures that allows for heterogeneous long-run relationships across groups. We extend Su, Shi, and Phillips’ (2016) classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) method to the nonstationary panels and allow for the presence of endogeneity in both the stationary and nonstationary regressors in the model. In addition, we allow the dimension of the stationary regressors to diverge with the sample size. We show that we can identify the individuals’ group membership and estimate the group-specific long-run cointegrated relationships simultaneously. We demonstrate the desirable property of uniform classification consistency and the oracle properties of both the C-Lasso estimators and their post-Lasso versions. The special case of dynamic penalized least squares is also studied. Simulations show superb finite sample performance in both classification and estimation. In an empirical application, we study the potential heterogeneous behavior in testing the validity of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis in the post-Bretton Woods period from 1975-2014 covering 99 countries. We identify two groups in the period 1975-1998 and three ones in the period 1999-2014. The results confirm that at least some countries favor the long-run PPP hypothesis in the post-Bretton Woods period.
    Keywords: Classifier Lasso; Dynamic OLS; Heterogeneity; Latent group structure; Nonstationarity; Penalized least squares; Panel cointegration; Purchasing power parity
    JEL: C13 C33 C51 F31
    Date: 2018–11–20
  22. By: David Finck (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen); Peter Tillmann (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen)
    Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of business cycles in small open economies and adds to the discussion about the changing nature of in flation dynamics. We estimate a series of VAR models for a set of six Asian emerging market economies, in which we identify a battery of domestic and global shocks using sign restrictions. We find that global shocks explain large parts of infl ation and output dynamics. The global shocks are procyclical with respect to the domestic components of economic activity. We estimate Phillips curve regressions based on alternative decompositions of output into global and domestic components. For the domestic component of GDP we find a positive and significant Phillips curve slope. While the output component driven by oil prices 'fl attens' the Phillips curve, the component driven by global demand shocks 'steepens' the trade-off. Hence, whether or not global shocks fl atten the Phillips curve crucially depends on the nature of these global shocks. A series of counterfactuals supports these findings and suggests that the role of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks is limited.
    Keywords: in ation targeting, business cycle, open economy, monetary policy, Phillips curve
    JEL: E3 E5 F4
    Date: 2019
  23. By: Su, Liangjun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Miao, Ke (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Jin, Sainan (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We consider the estimation and inference in approximate factor models with random missing values. We show that with the low rank structure of the common component, we can estimate the factors and factor loadings consistently with the missing values replaced by zeros. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators and those based on the EM algorithm. We also propose a cross validation-based method to determine the number of factors in factor models with or without missing values and justify its consistency. Simulations demonstrate that our cross validation method is robust to fat tails in the error distribution and significantly outperforms some existing popular methods in terms of correct percentage in determining the number of factors. An application to the factor-augmented regression models shows that a proper treatment of the missing values can improve the out-of-sample forecast of some macroeconomic variables.
    Keywords: Cross-validation; Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm; Factor models; Matrix completion; Missing at random; Principal component analysis; Singular value decomposition
    JEL: C23 C33 C38
    Date: 2019–01–15
  24. By: Vibhor Saxena (School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews); Ishaan Bindal (National University of Singapore); Philippe LeMay-Boucher (Heriot-Watt University)
    Abstract: A strand of research holds the view that restricting access to credit to regulate over-borrowing can worsen consumers’ financial condition. Another strand of research holds the view that access to credit in the developing countries with subprime credit markets is determined by social groupings and ethnic affiliations. By merging these two strands of research, we investigate the impact of Andhra Pradesh microfinance act (2010) on the consumption expenditure of marginalised social groups and the upper caste Hindu groups in India. We construct an aggregated district level panel data for eight quarters and estimate the impact of unanticipated policy change. The results of our analysis show that the sudden restriction of access to credit has larger impact on the consumption levels of the marginalised social groups: lower castes, tribes, and Muslims. The findings also confirm the failure of contingency policy enacted for smoothing consumption.
    Keywords: financial deleveraging; social insurance; consumption smoothing; microfinance; Andhra Pradesh
    JEL: D12 G2 Z13
    Date: 2019–01–31

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