nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒09‒24
thirty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. The impact of market shocks on undernourishment: Evidence from Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam By Hoang, Hoa1mailto; Kimura, Shingo
  2. Social capital and conservation under collective and individual incentive schemes: a framed field experiment in Indonesia By Wollni, M.; Lanza, G.; Ibanez, M.
  3. How swelling debts give rise to a new type of politics in Vietnam By Viet-Ha T. Nguyen; Hong Kong Nguyen-To; Thu Trang Vuong; Manh Tung Ho; Quan-Hoang Vuong
  4. Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies By Geraldine Dany-Knedlik; Juan Angel Garcia
  5. Marketing strategies and Derivative Market for Risk Management Instruments in Thailand By Surang Hensawang; Yupawan Vannavanit; Yupawan Vannavanit
  6. The Social Media Exposure and Online Clothes Buying Behavior in Thailand By Chuenjit Changchenkit
  7. Does climate change cause conflict? Damned if you do, damned if you don’t By Gatti, N.; Baylis, K.; Crost, B.
  8. Effects of Natural Disaster on Rice Production at Farm Level: New Evidence from Vietnam By Nguyen, Hong - Ron; Ngo, Quang - Thanh; Nguyen, Ngoc - Danh
  9. Influences of Entrepreneurial Competencies on Product Development Decision: Longan Processing Enterprises in Thailand By CHANITA PANMANEE; KASEM KUNASRI
  10. What determines the long time lags in farmer’s decision to adopt new rice varieties? Evidence from Lampung, Indonesia By Ahsanuzzaman, Ahsanuzzaman; Maredia, Mywish K.
  11. Firm Dynamics, Misallocation and Targeted Policies By In Hwan Jo; Tatsuro Senga
  12. Internet Shopping and Buying Behavior of Baby Boomers in Bangkok, Thailand By Nadhakan Shinnaranantana
  13. Dietary diversity of children and teenagers in Northern Vietnam By Genova, C.; Umberger, W.; Peralta, A.; Newman, S.
  14. Farmers’ preferences for varietal trait improvements: The case of rice farmers in Nueva Ecija, Philippines By Maligalig, Rio L.; Demont, Matty; Umberger, Wendy J.; Peralta, Alexandra
  15. The Possibility of Implementing the Area Yield Index Rice Insurance Product in Thailand By Bunyasiri, Isriya N.; Sirisupluxana, Prapinwadee
  16. To Market, to Market: Does Smallholder Vegetable Production Lead to Increased Children's Diet Diversity and Improved Diet Quality? Empirical Evidence from Northwest Vietnam By Genova, Christian A.; Umberger, Wendy J.; Newman, Suzie; Peralta, Alexandra
  17. Evaluating local impacts of marine-based economic stimulus policies amid market imperfections in rural Indonesia By Lindsay, Amanda R.; Sanchirico, James N.; Taylor, J. Edward
  18. Fuel Switching and Infant Health: Evidence from LPG Subsidy in Indonesia By Imelda
  19. Fiscal Space and Government-Spending & Tax-Rate Cyclicality Patterns: A Cross-Country Comparison, 1960-2016 By Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Hien Thi Kim Nguyen; Donghyun Park
  20. Private standards and labour productivity in the food sector in Vietnam By Trifkovic, Neda
  21. Food Market Modernization and Diet-related Health Outcomes: Evidence from Urban Vietnam By Zeng, Di; Umberger, Wendy J.; Rupa, Jesmin Ara
  22. Exploring the Influential Factors in Perceived Value of LINE: Enjoyment of LINE Activity, Perceived Risk, and Privacy Concern of LINE Users in Bangkok By David Meredith
  23. Comparative Study of Three Time Series Methods in Forecasting Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Incidence in Thailand By Somsri Banditvilai; Siriluck Anansatitzin
  24. Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia By Serkan Arslanalp; Jaewoo Lee; Umang Rawat
  25. Social Norms and Fertility By Myong, Sunha; Park, JungJae; Yi, Junjian
  26. The relationship between marketing mix and buying decision process on the online shopping in Thailand By Songporn Hansanti; Daoroong Aiyadech; Wilawan Somsuk
  27. Les relations commerciales agroalimentaires de la Russie avec l’Union européenne, l’embargo russe et les productions animales By Vincent Chatellier; Thierry Pouch; Cécile Le Roy; Quentin Mathieu
  28. Determinants of Consumer Preferences for Rice Attributes: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia By Bairagi, Subir K.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Ynion, Jhoanne; Demont, Matty
  29. Mismatch and Assimilation By Ping Wang; Tsz-Nga Wong; Chong K. Yip
  30. Laos consumer perceptions of rice quality and safety: Insights from a conjoint analysis By Chialue, L.; Moustier, P.
  31. COPING MECHANISMS OF PHILIPPINE STUDENTS? LEFT BEHIND BY OFW PARENTS By Kirt Anthony Diaz
  32. A Causal Relationship Model of Undergraduate Students? Willingness to Communicate English By David Meredith

  1. By: Hoang, Hoa1mailto; Kimura, Shingo
    Abstract: A demand system is estimated separately for Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Results showed that rice, the most important staple food in these countries, is a normal good. Food demand elasticity with respect to expenditure is less elastic for higher income country like Thailand while more elastic for lower income country like Myanmar. Market shocks such as a decrease in expenditure or an increase in rice prices tend to have the largest impacts on the prevalence of undernourishment in Myanmar and Vietnam. The study concludes with a recommendation for effective safety net programs.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2017–08–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae17:261174&r=sea
  2. By: Wollni, M.; Lanza, G.; Ibanez, M.
    Abstract: In this study, we explore the effects of payments for environmental services on land use decisions among farmers living in Jambi province in Indonesia. Using a framed field experiment we compare land use decisions in a baseline with no payment with two alternative payments for environmental services (PES): an individual incentive scheme, where each participant receives a flat rate payment for each experimental land unit conserved, and a collective incentive scheme that offers individual payments only if an aggregate pre-determined conservation threshold is passed by the group. We find that individual and collective PES are equally effective on the average to increase environmentally friendly behavior associated with the cultivation of rubber agroforestry. Yet we find that whereas individual incentives work equally well for small and large farmers, collective incentives only work for large farmers. In addition, collective incentives generate an increase in conservation even at low payment levels whereas individual incentives only work when payments are high. Participants with a larger social network cultivating oil palm invest a lower share of their endowment in conservation. These findings highlight how land heterogeneity and social capital influence the success of a PES scheme.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:275968&r=sea
  3. By: Viet-Ha T. Nguyen; Hong Kong Nguyen-To; Thu Trang Vuong; Manh Tung Ho; Quan-Hoang Vuong
    Abstract: Vietnam has seen fast-rising debts, both domestic and external, in recent years. This paperreviews the literature on credit market in Vietnam, providing an up-to-date take on the domesticlending and borrowing landscape. The study highlights the strong demand for credit in both therural and urban areas, the ubiquity of informal lenders, the recent popularity of consumer financecompanies, as well as the government’s attempts to rein in its swelling public debt. Given thehigh level of borrowing, which is fueled by consumerism and geopolitics, it is inevitable that theamount of debt will soon be higher than the saving of the borrowers. Unlike the conventionalwisdom that creditors have more bargaining power over the borrowers, we suggest that—albeitlacking a quantitative estimation—when the debts pile up so high that the borrowers could notrepay, the power dynamics may reverse. In this new politics of debt, the lenders fear to lose themoney’s worth and continue to lend and feed the insolvent debtors. The result is a toxic lending/borrowing market and profound lessons, from which the developing world could learn.
    Keywords: debt; credit; financial system; Vietnam; consumerism; geopolitics; political economy; government finance
    JEL: E26 E44 E51 F34 H63
    Date: 2018–08–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/276130&r=sea
  4. By: Geraldine Dany-Knedlik; Juan Angel Garcia
    Abstract: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips Curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
    Keywords: Phillips curve, monetary policy, inflation expectations, ASEAN countries
    JEL: C22 E31 E5
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1755&r=sea
  5. By: Surang Hensawang (Kasetsart University); Yupawan Vannavanit (Kasetsart University); Yupawan Vannavanit (Kasetsart University)
    Abstract: Locally, risk management instruments including derivatives and financial products have been associated with high-profile corporates. However, for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), those instruments are still beyond their reach due to many sensible business reasons. In order to get out of middle income trap, Thai market need to be fully developed and the level of financial inclusion in terms of risk management should be increased considerably and rapidly nationwide, The paper will discuss current financial institutions? marketing strategy, products and services in derivative and risk management particularly in Thailand. Statistically, Thailand witnessed a significant growth during the past decade. The paper will also put forward several possible ways forward to enhance customer based and boost inclusion. Briefly, the products are basic and simple, mainly being plain vanilla and there are four types of strategies in derivative market provided by financial institutions, namely Sale and Distribution, Market Maker, Proprietary Trading and Structuring.
    Keywords: Derivative Market, Marketing Strategy, Risk Management Instrument Thailand
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7208858&r=sea
  6. By: Chuenjit Changchenkit (Kasetsart University , Department of Marketing , Faculty of Business Administration)
    Abstract: The purpose of this research was to study social media exposure and online clothes buying behavior. Quantitative research consisting of 400 samples was employed to those who had at least 1 year experience on online buying clothes via social media exposure in Bangkok Metropolitan. Data was collected through online questionnaires with convenience sampling method. The results revealed that most of the respondents were female, aged between 26 - 35 years old , held bachelor degree , had marital status of single , were private firm?s employees and earned monthlyincome between 10,001 - 15,000 Thai baht. They made their own purchase via online shops via Facebook for latest collection. Their purchase decision making was influenced by online products reviews. The important step of buying process was information searching about products on social network. The hypothesis testing results showed that different demographic factors led to different decision making procedures on clothes online buying through social media. The difference in demographic factors also affect social media exposure behavior at a statistical significance level of 0.05.
    Keywords: Social Media, Media Exposure , Online Buying Behavior , Clothes , Thailand
    JEL: M31
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7208896&r=sea
  7. By: Gatti, N.; Baylis, K.; Crost, B.
    Abstract: Using detailed data on conflict-related incidents in Indonesia, we exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between rainfall and agricultural production to study the mechanism linking climate change and conflict. Furthermore, we ask whether irrigation and dam infrastructure help mitigate this link. We find that wet-season rainfall decreases production while rainfall during the dry season is beneficial for production. If agriculture is the mechanism through which climate change affects conflict, then we should expect the opposite effect on conflict, but with one-year lag. Our results show that, as expected, dry-season rainfall decreases conflict in Indonesia and in agricultural regions like Java, while wet-season rainfall increases conflict. In the latter, we find that irrigation increases conflict instead of reducing it. For Indonesia, irrigation reduces the effect of conflict during the dry season and amplifies it during the wet season. A plausible explanation is that the irrigation network is not well adapted to agriculture necessities which could generate civil unrest when a weather shock occurs. A policy that aim to reducing the impact of climate change on civil conflict should consider these drawbacks.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:275936&r=sea
  8. By: Nguyen, Hong - Ron; Ngo, Quang - Thanh; Nguyen, Ngoc - Danh
    Abstract: The current study uses a unique balanced panel of 3,922 households between 2008 and 2010 to examine the extent to which rice production in Vietnam is affected by natural disasters and how coping strategies lessen the negative effects of natural disaster, using a fixed effects model that controls for time invariant farm heterogeneity. With regard to natural disaster, we find evidence of the negative inter-temporal occurrence and negative inter-temporal severity effects, and the negative current occurrence one as well. With regard to coping strategies, we find various evidence of current, inter-temporal coping-occurrence and coping severity effects, depending on kinds of coping strategies.
    Keywords: Current and inter-temporal occurrence effects, current and inter-temporal severity effects, current and intertemporal coping-occurrence effects, current and inter-temporal coping-severity effects, natural disaster, rice production, Vietnam.
    JEL: C23 Q12 Q54
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88701&r=sea
  9. By: CHANITA PANMANEE (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University); KASEM KUNASRI (Faculty of Management science, Chiang Mai Rajabhat University)
    Abstract: This research aims to evaluate the entrepreneurial competencies of longan processing entrepreneurs and analyze the impacts of entrepreneurial competencies on new product development decision. The 165 samples of longan processing entrepreneurs are selected by a purposive sampling method. The results of entrepreneurial competencies show that risk taking orientation and competitiveness orientation are the two lowest score competencies in which the longan processing entrepreneurs should be interested in. Moreover, the age of the entrepreneur and pro-activeness orientation of the entrepreneur have some negative impacts on the decision making probability of the new product development. The entrepreneurial competencies on risk taking, innovativeness and competitiveness have positive influences on new product development decision. The findings lead to a discussion about whether the longan processing entrepreneurs are ready to develop the new product, or not.
    Keywords: longan processing, entrepreneurial competencies, product development, composite index, logit model
    JEL: C25 M21 Q13
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7208736&r=sea
  10. By: Ahsanuzzaman, Ahsanuzzaman; Maredia, Mywish K.
    Keywords: International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research Methods/Statistical Methods
    Date: 2017–07–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258528&r=sea
  11. By: In Hwan Jo (National University of Singapore); Tatsuro Senga (Queen Mary University of London)
    Abstract: Access to external finance is a major obstacle for small and young firms; thus, providing subsidized credit to small and young firms is a widely-used policy option across countries. We study the impact of such targeted policies on aggregate output and productivity and highlight indirect general equilibrium effects. To do so, we build a model of heterogeneous firms with endogenous entry and exit, wherein each firm may be subject to forward-looking collateral constraints for their external borrowing. Subsidized credit alleviates credit constraints small and young firms face, which helps them to achieve the efficient and larger scale of production. This direct effect is, however, either reinforced or offset by indirect general equilibrium effects. Factor prices increase as subsidized firm demand more capital and labor. As a result, higher production costs induce more unproductive incumbents to exit, while replacing them selectively with productive entrants. This cleansing effect reinforces the direct effect by enhancing the aggregate productivity. However, the number of firms in operation decreases in equilibrium, and this, in turn, depresses the aggregate productivity.
    Keywords: Firm dynamics, Misallocation, Financial frictions, Firm size and age
    JEL: E22 G32 O16
    Date: 2016–12–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:809&r=sea
  12. By: Nadhakan Shinnaranantana (Faculty of Business Administration, KASETSART UNIVERSITY)
    Abstract: Nowadays retailers have using multichannel of distribution, especially they are more focus on Internet shopping. Because of today consumers are more using internet for several activities such as entertainment, searching for information, social media and also shopping. This conceptual paper focus on internet shopping of Baby Boomers and their buying behavior. Adult consumers are specifically targeted because of their buying power and they are high potential customers for Internet retailer. The study specially address the issues how often and why Internet purchase is made. The 6 Ws and 1 H of buying behavior are asked; who are in the target market, what do they buy, why do they buy, who participate in the buying, when and where do they buy and how do they buy. Regarding the design, methodology, and approach of this paper, a thorough literature investigation will conduct through major databases of leading academic journals and research papers related to the scope of this paper in both Thai and English. An analysis of literature reviews of relevant articles will carry out and present in the paper. The study will provide a vital information for marketers and retailers to develop effective online marketing strategy.
    Keywords: Internet Shopping, Buying Behavior, Baby Boomers, Bangkok Thailand
    JEL: M31
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7208950&r=sea
  13. By: Genova, C.; Umberger, W.; Peralta, A.; Newman, S.
    Abstract: This paper examines the empirical link between smallholder vegetable production and the dietary diversity of children aged 0.5 to 17 years at the household level through: vegetable diversity, market engagement, and gender-related factors. We use Child Dietary Diversity Score (CDDS) as measure of children’s diets. We find that market access and market participation can significantly improve CDDS, especially for older boys >5 to 17 years. For children under five years, improving the nutritional knowledge of the food preparer, promoting market linkage to increase income, and implementing intervention targeted on the low-lying and low vegetable per capita density areas can improve diet quality.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:276033&r=sea
  14. By: Maligalig, Rio L.; Demont, Matty; Umberger, Wendy J.; Peralta, Alexandra
    Keywords: Farm Management, Agricultural and Food Policy, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2017–07–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258459&r=sea
  15. By: Bunyasiri, Isriya N.; Sirisupluxana, Prapinwadee
    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2018–04–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:scc018:276157&r=sea
  16. By: Genova, Christian A.; Umberger, Wendy J.; Newman, Suzie; Peralta, Alexandra
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development
    Date: 2017–07–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258366&r=sea
  17. By: Lindsay, Amanda R.; Sanchirico, James N.; Taylor, J. Edward
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, International Development, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2017–07–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258444&r=sea
  18. By: Imelda
    Keywords: Health Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2017–07–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258478&r=sea
  19. By: Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Hien Thi Kim Nguyen; Donghyun Park
    Abstract: The upward trajectory of OECD policy interest rates may impose growing fiscal challenges, thus testing the fiscal space of countries and their resilience. Against this background, we compare fiscal cyclicality across Asia, Latin America, OECD, and other regions from 1960-2016, then identify factors that explain countries’ government spending and tax-policy cyclicality. Our study reveals a mixed fiscal scenery, where more than half of the countries are recently characterized by limited fiscal space, and fiscal policy is either acyclical or procyclical (though not as high the level of 1980s), notably post-GFC becoming even more procyclical in government spending when accounting for net acquisition of nonfinancial assets and capital expenditure (spending components do matter). The cyclicality is also asymmetric: on average, a more indebted (relative to tax base) government spent more in good times (positive growth) and cut back the spending even more in bad times (weak economy). Added to the public debt/GDP data, we construct the ‘limited-fiscal-capacity’ statistic, measured by the size of public debt/[average tax revenue] and its volatility, which is found positively associated with the fiscal pro-cyclicality. Further, we also find that country’s sovereign wealth fund has a countercyclical effect in our estimation. The analysis depicts a significant economic impact of an enduring interest-rate rise on fiscal space: a 10% increase of public debt/tax base is associated with an upper bound of 6.1% increase in government-spending procyclicality. For both government-spending cyclicality and tax-rate cyclicality, we find no one-size-fits-all explanation for all (OECD/developing) countries at all (good/bad) times. Fiscal space, trade, and financial openness, the share of natural resource/manufacturing exports, inflation, and institutional risks are associated with the cross-country patterns of fiscal cyclicality, suggesting the measured cyclicality is context specific and the fiscal-monetary-political economy interactions are at work. We rank the explanatory factors across countries and regions and discuss policies to increase the fiscal capacity for countercyclical policy.
    JEL: F4 F41 H2 H3
    Date: 2018–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25012&r=sea
  20. By: Trifkovic, Neda
    Abstract: The paper analyses how voluntary private standards affect labour productivity of small and medium firms from the food sector in Vietnam. The results based on a three-year panel show that the application of private standards improves labour productivity. These gains primarily occur to firms operating above a threshold labour-intensity level. Firms with low labour intensity are not likely to experience gains in labour productivity from standards. This implies that employee compensation increase due to standards is a likely mechanism for labour productivity gains. The results are robust to several specification changes and instrumental variable estimation.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2017–08–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae17:261111&r=sea
  21. By: Zeng, Di; Umberger, Wendy J.; Rupa, Jesmin Ara
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics
    Date: 2017–07–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258470&r=sea
  22. By: David Meredith (Webster University,)
    Abstract: The purpose of this research was to explore the influential factors in the perceived value of the users of the LINE application in Bangkok, Thailand. The research model consisted of four latent variables: privacy concern (PC), perceived risk (PR), enjoyment of LINE activities (ELA) and perceived value of LINE (PVL). The data was collected from a sample of 190 respondents all of whom used the LINE application. The research instrument was a survey questionnaire using a five-point Likert scale for measuring respondent?s attitudes. Data was analyzed using the SPSS programme and SmartPLS version 2.0.M3 programme. The findings revealed that LINE application users? ELA influences PVL, while ELA is not influenced by PC and PR. This study also confirms that LINE application users? PR is significantly associated with PC. These findings can help managers and decision makers of the LINE application to keep apace with research on consumer attitudes and to make suitable and appropriate developments in the functions of LINE. Additionally, it will assist LINE managers in developing suitable strategies to achieve competitive advantage.
    Keywords: Enjoyment of LINE activity, LINE application, perceived risk, perceived value of LINE, privacy concern
    JEL: I25
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7209464&r=sea
  23. By: Somsri Banditvilai (King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang); Siriluck Anansatitzin (King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang)
    Abstract: Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease such as dengue hemorrhagic fever is critical for early prevention and detection of outbreaks. This research presents a comparative study of three different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Holt and Winters method, Box-Jenkins method and Artificial Neural Networks were compared. The data were taken from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health starting from January, 2003 to December, 2016. The data were divided into 2 sets. The first set from January, 2003 to December, 2015 were used for constructing and selection the forecasting models. The second set from January, 2016 to December, 2016 were used for computing the accuracy of the forecasting model. The forecasting models were chosen by considering the smallest root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the accuracy of the model. The results showed that Artificial Neural Networks obtained the smallest RMSE in the modeling process and the MAPE in the forecasting process was 14.05%
    Keywords: Dengue hemorrhagic fever, Time Series Forecasting, Holt-Winters method, Box-Jenkins method, Artificial Neural Networks
    JEL: C22 C45
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:6409199&r=sea
  24. By: Serkan Arslanalp; Jaewoo Lee; Umang Rawat
    Abstract: Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
    Date: 2018–07–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/172&r=sea
  25. By: Myong, Sunha (Singapore Management University); Park, JungJae (National University of Singapore); Yi, Junjian (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: We first document three stylized facts about marriage and fertility in East Asian societies: They have the highest marriage rates in the world, but the lowest total fertility; they have the lowest total fertility, but almost all married women have at least one child. By contrast, almost no single women have any children. We then explain these three facts, focusing on two social norms associated with Confucianism: the unequal gender division of childcare within a household and the stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births. We incorporate the two social norms into an economic model, and structurally estimate it using data from South Korea's censuses and household surveys. We find that, on the one hand, the social norm of unequal gender division of childcare significantly contributes to the low fertility of South Korea, and its effect varies across education: The social norm lowers fertility for highly educated women but increases it for the less educated. Pro-natal policies can increase average fertility, but they are not effective in mitigating the role of this norm as they cannot sufficiently boost fertility for highly educated women. On the other hand, the social stigma has negligible effects on marriage and fertility. Historical simulation results show that fertility would have decreased less dramatically in the absence of the first norm, especially for younger birth cohorts. Our results suggest that the tension between the persistent gender ideology and rapid socioeconomic development is the main driving force behind the unique marriage and fertility patterns of East Asian societies, and that this tension has escalated in recent decades.
    Keywords: Confucianism, social norms, fertility, demographic transition, East Asia societies
    JEL: J11 J12 J13
    Date: 2018–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11744&r=sea
  26. By: Songporn Hansanti (Department of Marketing, Kasetsart University); Daoroong Aiyadech (Department of Marketing, Kasetsart University); Wilawan Somsuk (The Young Executive M.B.A. Program, Kasetsart University)
    Abstract: The objectives of this study were 1) to study the buying decision process of the consumers on Central Online Shopping website, 2) to study the personal factors influencing the priority of consumers? buying decision process on Central Online Shopping website, 3) to study the relationship between marketing mix and buying decision process on Central Online Shopping website. The study found that the majority of samples were female, age between 25-30 years old, single status, education with graduated bachelor degree and work as the employees in private company with the average income per month Less than or equal to 40,000 baht. Moreover, different occupations were influencing the priority of consumers? buying decision process on Central Online Shopping website. The marketing mix had positive relationship with the buying decision process.
    Keywords: Marketing mix, online shopping, Thailand
    JEL: M31
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7208830&r=sea
  27. By: Vincent Chatellier; Thierry Pouch; Cécile Le Roy; Quentin Mathieu
    Abstract: [paper in French] Russia has been for many years an important outlet for the European Union (EU) in the agri-food sector. Following the break-up of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991, Russian agriculture, which until then had been dominated by sovkhozes and kolkhozes, had suffered a drastic fall in domestic production, in particular in animal production. Over the past fifteen years, and due to a policy encouraging investment in agriculture, especially in agro-industrial complexes where the integration model prevails, agricultural production progressed rapidly, at least in certain sectors, including cereals, poultry meat and pork. This development of domestic supply and the diversification of supplier countries (including the United States, Brazil, etc.) had, even before the embargo imposed since August 2014, led to a substantial loss of European exports to Russia. Since the embargo was effective, Russia is no longer a privileged partner for European animal productions. Thanks to the growth of imports in several Asian countries, especially in China, several European animal sectors have nevertheless managed, despite the closure of the Russian market, to increase their exports. This paper deals, first of all, with the main stages of the Russian agricultural and trade policy, the development of agricultural production in this country, and the implementation of the embargo. Using customs statistics data (from BACI and COMEXT databases) over the period 2000 to 2016, it then discusses the evolution of trade flows following the implementation of the embargo, with particular emphasis on Russia's bilateral relations with the EU in four animal sectors: milk and milk products, beef and veal, poultry meat, and pork.
    Keywords: Russie, embargo, compétitivité, échanges commerciaux, productions animales
    JEL: Q13 Q17 F13 F14
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rae:wpaper:201806&r=sea
  28. By: Bairagi, Subir K.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Ynion, Jhoanne; Demont, Matty
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2017–07–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea17:258384&r=sea
  29. By: Ping Wang; Tsz-Nga Wong; Chong K. Yip
    Abstract: Income disparity across countries has been large and widening over time. We develop a tractable model where factor requirements in production technology do not necessarily match a country's factor input profile. Appropriate assimilation of frontier technologies balances such multi-dimensional factor input-technology mismatch, thus mitigating the efficiency loss. This yields a new measure for endogenous TFP, entailing a novel trade-off between a country's income level and income growth that depends critically on the assimilation ability and the factor input mismatch. Our baseline model accounts for 80%-92% of the global income variation over the past 50 years. The widening of mismatch and heterogeneity in the assimilation ability account for 41% and 20% of the global growth variation, whereas physical capital accounts for about one third with human capital largely inconsequential. In particular, about 30% of the output growth in miracle Asian economies comes from narrowing the gap arisen from mismatch, and 94% of the growth stagnation in trapped African economies due to the widening mismatch. A country may fall into a middle-income trap after a factor advantage reversal that changes the pattern of mismatch.
    JEL: D90 E23 O40
    Date: 2018–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24960&r=sea
  30. By: Chialue, L.; Moustier, P.
    Abstract: To assess the main factors influencing Lao urban consumers perception of rice quality and safety, a conjoint analysis approach was conducted based on surveys on 300 consumers in 2010. Retailing points and organic certification have a major influence. The preferred retailing point for these attributes is the wet market, followed by minimarts then mobile vendors. Improving organic certification systems and maintaining traditional markets alongside minimarts are recommended. Key words: Consumer, food quality, safety, retail outlet, conjoint analysis
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:276030&r=sea
  31. By: Kirt Anthony Diaz (Cor Jesu College)
    Abstract: Students nowadays are experiencing school life without the presence of their parents. While many children have experienced a decline in classroom performance while parents are away, many were also found to have performed excellently through various mechanisms. This study investigates the influence of coping mechanisms towards the academic performance of students with OFW parents. A survey was conducted to students who were academically high performing for the school year 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. A total of 142 students from Catholic schools in Davao del Sur were given questionnaires and ten underwent the Key Informant Interview. Using Multiple Regression Analysis, it was determined that of the eight coping mechanisms tested only three were found to be significant, namely: active coping, planning and the use of instrumental support. Based on the findings, it is recommended that schools must define policies that would support the creation of a separate program for students with OFW parents with the emphasis on the significant predictors.
    Keywords: Guidance and counseling, coping mechanisms, academic performance, descriptive-correlational design, Philippines
    JEL: I29 I00
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:6408416&r=sea
  32. By: David Meredith (Webster University Thailand)
    Abstract: The purpose of this research is to explore the critical factors that affect undergraduate students? Willingness to Communicate in English (WTC). The data was collected from a sample of 416 respondents using a questionnaire to measure attitudes. Data was analysed using SPSS and Mplus 6.12 computer programmes. The findings revealed that students? Perceived Communication Apprehension (PCA) could influence WTC indirectly via Attitude Toward Willingness to Communicate (AWTC) and Perceived Behavioural Control (PBC), whilst WTC was not affected from PCA indirectly via the Subjective Norm (SN). Students were found to be tense and nervous about speaking English with their friends, strangers, and new acquaintance which was associated with a lack of confidence. However, if activities were perceived to be fun students were more willing to communicate. This research is useful for teachers of English as it can increase awareness of the causes and effects of anxiety on students? learning and suggest teaching methodologies that might reduce nervousness and encourage students? willingness to communicate: thereby helping to improve their English oral communication skills.
    Keywords: Willingness to Communicate English, Perceived Communication Apprehension, Attitude Toward Willingness to Communicate, Subjective Norms, Perceived Behavioural Control
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:6409466&r=sea

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