nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒09‒10
35 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Mapping the OECD Government Procurement Taxonomy with International Best Practices: An Implementation to ASEAN Countries By Julien Gourdon
  2. Responses of macroeconomy and stock markets to structural oil price shocks: New evidence from Asian oil refinery By Hong Thai Le; Marta Disegna
  3. Recent Trade Dynamics in Asia: Examples from Specific Industries By Marc Auboin; Floriana Borino
  4. Estimating the Revenue Costs of Tax Treaties in Developing Countries By Petr Jansky
  5. The Decision to Adopt Organic Practices in Malaysia; a Mix-method Approach By Mohamed Haris, Nur Bahiah; Garrod, Guy; Gkartzios, Menelaos; Proctor, Amy
  6. The Large Consequences and the Spillover Effects of a Small Shock By Elisa Giannone
  7. Determinants of Specialty Rice Adoption by Smallholder Farmers in the Red River Delta of Vietnam By Pham, Thai Thuy Pham; Dao, The Anh; Theuvsen, Ludwig
  8. Corporate Governance Score and Earnings Quality of Companies Listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand By Kanibhatti Nitirojntanad
  9. On the Determinant of Trading Hub in East and Southeast Asia: Theory and Empirical Evidence1 By Deng-Shing Huang; Yo-Yi Huang; Ching-lung Tsay
  10. Potential Economic Effects of RCEP on the Philippines By Cororaton, Caesar B.
  11. How can the environmental efficiency of Indonesian cocoa farms be increased? By Andras Tothmihaly,; Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel,; Verina Ingram.
  12. Data gaps, data incomparability, and data imputation: A review of poverty measurement methods for data-scarce environments By Hai-Anh Dang; Dean Jolliffe; Calogero Carletto
  13. Technical Inefficiency of Chili Farms in Thailand By Krasachat, Wirat
  14. Measuring and Examining Innovation in Philippine Business and Industry By Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Llanto, Gilberto M.; Serafica, Ramonette B.; Vizmanos, Jana Flor V.; Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Bairan, Jose Carlos Alexis C.
  15. Falling Behind and Catching up : India’s Transition from a Colonial Economy By Gupta, Bishnupriya
  16. Long-Term performance of Corporate Governance in Thailand By Chayakrit Asvathitanont; Nopphon Tangjitprom; Vorapol Socatiyanurak
  17. Vietnam; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  18. Maximising Export Returns: Consumer Preferences for Food Attributes in Developed and Developing Countries and Their Potential Impact By Saunders, Caroline; Guenther, Meike; Saunders, John; Dalziel, Paul; Rutherford, Paul
  19. Market Constraints, Misallocation, and Productivity in Vietnam Agriculture By Stephen Ayerst; Loren Brandt; Diego Restuccia
  20. Borrower-Specific and Institutional Factors Leading to the Forced or Voluntary Exit of Microfinance Borrowers By Cesar Escalante; Hofner Rusiana
  21. Diversification benefits under multivariate second order regular variation By Das, Bikramjit; Kratz, Marie
  22. Fish Farms and Land Confiscation in the Ayeyarwady Delta: History, Impact and Prospects for Restitution By Mark, SiuSue
  23. Aquaculture in Myanmar: Fish Farm Technology, Production Economics and Management By Belton, Ben; Filipski, Mateusz; Hu, Chaoran
  25. Fiscal space and government-spending & tax-rate cyclicality patterns: A cross-country comparison, 1960-2016 By Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim; Park, Donghyun
  26. Fachkräftemangel in der Pflege: Kritische Situationsbewertung und Skizzierung einer Handlungsalternative By Watzka, Klaus
  27. Vietnam; 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  28. Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models with Correlated Random Effects By Li, Liyao; Yang, Zhenlin
  29. Improving land governance for more equitable fish farm development in Myanmar By Belton, Ben
  30. How can the productivity of Indonesian cocoa farms be increased? By Andras Tothmihaly,; Verina Ingram.
  31. Convergence vs. the middle income trap: The case of global soccer By Melanie Krause; Stefan Szymanski
  32. Divorce Mixed Crop-Livestock Farming to Increase Dietary Diversity? Evidence from Smallholders in Lao PDR By Parvathi, Priyanka
  33. Bilateral Capital Flows: Gravity, Push, and Pull By Rogelio Mercado Jr.
  34. Knowledge-Driven Economic Growth: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa By Stephen Oluwatobi; Isaiah Olurinola; Philip Alege; Adeyemi Ogundipe
  35. Do You Speak My Language? The Effect of Sharing a Teacher's Native Language on Student Achievement By Seah, Kelvin

  1. By: Julien Gourdon (OECD)
    Abstract: The OECD developed a taxonomy of measures affecting government procurement which provides a classification system for different GP measures, policies and procedures, which can impact cross-border government procurement. This project aims to further assist countries in assessing their procurement regimes by mapping the taxonomy against international good practices. The project maps the taxonomy against both the WTO Government Procurement Agreement and the UNCITRAL Model Law on Public Procurement (2011). It further tests this methodology with data collection in four ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Viet Nam).
    Keywords: Asia, Government procurement, Government Procurement Agreement (GPA), international trade, public good, regulation
    JEL: F13 F53 H41 H57 K20 N55
    Date: 2018–09–05
  2. By: Hong Thai Le (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University); Marta Disegna (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University)
    Abstract: In extensive oil-related literature, less attention has been paid to Asia and particularly little evidence is known for oil-refining countries. This paper examines how the economy of an oil-refining country reacts to an oil price shock and performs cross-country comparisons with oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Singapore (oil refiner), Japan (oil importer), and Malaysia (oil exporter) have been analysed through a SVAR model using both macroeconomic and financial variables. Results show limited reactions of both macroeconomic indicators and stock returns to an oil supply shock and an oil aggregate demand shock negatively impacts economic activities. Our findings reveal that the country’s status in the oil market matters is important when an oil specific demand shock is analysed. Our findings inform policymakers of the effectiveness of using monetary policy tools such as interest rate and exchange rate to mitigate the adverse effects of an oil price shock.
    Keywords: oil price; oil refining; stock return; SVAR; Asian economies
    JEL: G10 E31 C58
    Date: 2018–08
  3. By: Marc Auboin; Floriana Borino
    Abstract: This paper looks at the extent to which the shift in the lower value added production to countries in the following development “tier” is actually becoming a reality. Several countries in East Asia have been upgrading production patterns and moving up the value chain, this paper looks at how this helps and offers new opportunities to less advanced countries to integrate in world trade. The paper uses a combination of techniques, from an analysis of disaggregated trade flows by country and sectors, to the calculation of trade intensity indices by country and sector, and value-added trade by sector. It finds combined evidence of forward and backward trade increasing between several neighbouring Asian economies and China, in the most labour-intensive industries in particular. Econometric analysis shows that relative unit labour costs are an explanatory factor of increased trade links. In cases, the intensification of trade links on the export side can relate to a strongly expanding local market (for example India for electronic products such as smartphones), but mostly the intensification of trade links takes place both on the import and export sides with markets which are much smaller than China (Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.), and which experienced increased outward-processing activities as a result of China's production upgrade.
    Keywords: investment, trade policy, business cycles
    JEL: E22 F13 F44
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Petr Jansky (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: Tax treaties between countries influence how much tax revenues governments receive from multinational enterprises. These treaties often reduce the withholding tax rates on outgoing dividend and interest payments. We provide illustrative estimates of costs for these two taxes for 14 developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia in a first multi-country comparison of this kind. These might be overestimates because we assume that foreign direct investments are not influenced by the tax treaties. We estimate that the highest potential tax revenue losses are within hundreds of millions USD and around 0.1% of GDP, with Philippines incurring the highest losses both in USD and relative to GDP. We also find that around 95% of the losses is due to dividends and that only four investor countries - Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Singapore - are together responsible for more than half of the losses. We discuss the limitations of these estimates and how future research could improve their quality as well as coverage.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment; multinational enterprises; tax treaty; double taxation agreement; withholding tax; developing countries
    JEL: F21 F23 H25 H26
    Date: 2018–08
  5. By: Mohamed Haris, Nur Bahiah; Garrod, Guy; Gkartzios, Menelaos; Proctor, Amy
    Abstract: Organic agriculture is being promoted globally and is considered to have beneficial impacts on sustainable development. Aside from the importance of organic agriculture for human health and the environment, organic farming also indirectly contributes to income generation, development of new technologies and indigenous knowledge, as well as supporting rural development (Darnhofer, 2005; Scialabba, 2000). In Malaysia, people have recently become more aware of the potential advantages of organic food; however, the adoption rate among farmers is still very low and the number of certified farmers remains small. In fact, the demand from consumers for organic products continues to increase and cannot be met by local producers, hence relying on imports from other countries. In this context, this paper aims to investigate the factors that influence the farmer’s decision to adopt organic farming practices. This study was carried out in all four regions of Peninsular Malaysia (Northern, Central, Southern, and East Coast) which also represent the four highest number of organic farmers that have been listed by the Department of Agriculture (DoA) Malaysia. Logistic regression analysis was estimated to ascertain the factors. The paper intends to explain the decision to adopt or not adopt organic farming with respect to a variety of socio-economic, social and attitudinal factors. The analysis was done using both qualitative and quantitative methods, towards a more comprehensive understanding of the overall situation of organic farming practices in Malaysia. The results indicate that environmental attitudes is the most influential factor, followed by information sharing attitudes, as well as land ownership. These observations can contribute to national policy development in the context of future sustainable development.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, International Development
    Date: 2018–04–16
  6. By: Elisa Giannone (PRINCETON UNIV)
    Abstract: In this paper, we find that a small, transitory and sector-specific shock has large and long-lasting effects by inducing structural transformation. We also find evidence of causal spillover effects to the rest of the economy. We exploit a unique quasi-natural experiment: the European Union import ban on black tiger shrimps in Thailand from May 2002 to 2004. The price of black tiger shrimps plummeted by more than 50% and its production went close to zero within a few years. Using detailed household level Townsend Thai Project data, we investigate the effect of the EU ban on resource reallocation within and across sectors, change in sectoral productivity and welfare gains and losses within Thailand. We find that: 1) shrimp farmers experience a loss of income of $10,500 or 50% of their pre-ban income level but their income recover after 5-6 years to pre-ban levels; 2) shrimps’ farmers are more likely to transition to other sectors even after 10 years; 3) they accumulate assets in new sectors; 4) there are significant spillover effects on the local income for non-shrimps’ farmers.
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Pham, Thai Thuy Pham; Dao, The Anh; Theuvsen, Ludwig
    Abstract: This study addresses factors influencing the adoption of specialty rice variety among smallholder farmers in Vietnam. We used a sample of 336 farmers from the Red River Delta who were interviewed between October and December 2014. We follow the adoption behavior model based on the utility maximization criterion and adopt a two-step approach, starting with a Probit model for determinants of specialty rice adoption before analyzing the intensity of adoption using a Tobit model. Overall, 50% of the probability of specialty rice adoption is explained by the selected independent variables such as: cultivated land, experience in growing rice, and network size. Tobit model estimates show that group membership (such as in agricultural cooperatives, farmer’s union, etc.) and possession of a two-wheel-tractor increase the share of land allocation to specialty rice production by 3.4% and 7.8% respectively. Based on the findings manifold social and political implications will be derived.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Production Economics
    Date: 2017–08–29
  8. By: Kanibhatti Nitirojntanad (Chulalongkorn University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between corporate governance score and earnings quality of companies listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. This study used secondary data of companies in the Stock Exchange of Thailand in all industrial groups excluding companies in the market for alternative investment, business financial group, as well as the rehabilitation companies. The sample included companies with corporate governance score which corresponding to ?Excellent? and ?Very Good? recognition level in the year 2014 and 2015. The data was analyzed using regression analysis.In this study, the earnings quality is measured in terms of discretionary accruals and standard deviation of net income. The results suggested that corporate governance score was negatively related to discretionary accruals indicating positive relationship between corporate governance score and earnings quality. Corporate governance score was also found positively related to cash flows return to total assets. However, corporate governance score was not found to be significantly related to standard deviation of net income.The results of this study implied that corporate governance scores, based on the recognition level of the National Committee on Corporate Governance, are likely to represent earnings quality of listed companies in the Stock Exchange of Thailand in the context of discretionary accruals and cash flows return to total assets.
    Keywords: corporate governance, corporate governance score, earnings quality, discretionary accurals, cash flows return to total assets
    JEL: M00 G30
    Date: 2018–07
  9. By: Deng-Shing Huang (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); Yo-Yi Huang (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); Ching-lung Tsay (Institute of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean University)
    Abstract: Based on the existing hubness measure in the trade literature, we developed two modified trading-hub index in two directions, export-destination and import-source. Then we demonstrate the stylized fact of China-and-Japan’s double trading-hub, especially in export-destination sense, in East Asia since the early 1990s. After showing the dynamics of the twin-hub, more specifically the rising China-hub and shrinking Japan-hub, theoretical explanations, such as the home-market effect (HME), FDI and technology advantage etc. are provided. Finally, a panel data ranged from 1993 to 2014 of thirteen economies, including eleven economies in East Asia, USA and EU as a whole, are established to conduct empirical tests. In general, the empirical results support the role of HME, FDI and technology advantage for making a trading-hub, in terms of export-destination and/or import-sources.
    Keywords: : Double Trading-Hub, Export Destination Hub, Import-Source Hub, Homemarket effect, Technology Advantage
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2018–08
  10. By: Cororaton, Caesar B.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–12–03
  11. By: Andras Tothmihaly,; Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel,; Verina Ingram.
    Abstract: We look at the trade-off between smallholder cocoa intensification and the ecosystem in Indonesia and investigate the determinants of environmental efficiency in cocoa production. In our analysis, we apply a distance output function that includes cocoa production and the abundance of native rainforest plants as outputs. Our data set, based on a household and environment survey conducted in 2015, allows us to analyze 208 cocoa producers with both measured and self-reported data. We find that the intensification of cocoa farms results in higher ecosystem degradation. Additionally, the estimations show substantial mean inefficiencies (50 percent). On average, the efficiency scores point to a possible production expansion of 367 kg of cocoa per farm and year, to a possible increase of 43680 rainforest plants per farm, or to a possible acreage reduction of 0.52 hectares per farm. Finally, our results show that agricultural extension services have a substantial role in increasing efficiency.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2017–07–05
  12. By: Hai-Anh Dang (World Bank, USA); Dean Jolliffe (World Bank, USA); Calogero Carletto (World Bank, USA)
    Abstract: We offer a review of methods that have been employed to provide poverty estimates of poverty in contexts where household consumption data are unavailable or missing. These contexts range from completely missing and partially missing consumption data in cross sectional household surveys, to missing panel household data. We focus on methods that aim to compare trends and dynamic patterns of poverty outcomes over time. We present the various existing methods under a common framework, with pedagogical discussion on the intuition. Empirical illustrations are provided using several rounds of household survey data from Vietnam. Furthermore, we also offer a practical guide with detailed instructions on computer programs that can be used to implement the reviewed techniques.
    Keywords: poverty, mobility, imputation, consumption, wealth index, synthetic panels, household survey.
    JEL: C15 I32 O15
    Date: 2018–02
  13. By: Krasachat, Wirat
    Abstract: The primary purpose of this study is to measure and investigate factors affecting technical inefficiency of chili farms in Thailand. This study applies a stochastic frontier production function approach to measure farm-specific technical inefficiency using the 2013 farm-level cross-sectional survey data of Thai chili farms in a single estimation technique applying the maximum likelihood estimation method. The non-negative technical inefficiency effects are modeled as a function of farm-specific management and socio-economic factors. The empirical results suggest two important findings. First, there is confirmation that the difference in variety used has influenced the technical inefficiency of chili farms. Second, good agricultural practice (GAP) also has different impacts on technical inefficiency in Thai chili production in different farms.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2017–04–26
  14. By: Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Llanto, Gilberto M.; Serafica, Ramonette B.; Vizmanos, Jana Flor V.; Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Bairan, Jose Carlos Alexis C.
    Abstract: Innovation involves implementing new or significantly improved goods and services, production processes, marketing, or organizational methods for adding value. The measurement of innovation provides a mechanism for benchmarking national performance, as well as allows a better understanding of its relation to economic growth. Further, examining determinants and bottlenecks to innovation among firms provides inputs to mainstreaming of policies on innovation. In this paper, results of the 2015 Survey of Innovation Activities, conducted by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, are described and discussed. Survey results suggest that less than half of the firms in the country were innovators, with larger-sized firms innovating more than the micro, small, and medium establishments. The most common innovative behavior among firms was process innovation. Effects of innovation were observed to be largely customer-driven. Firms identified cost factors as the most important barrier to innovation. Knowledge and cooperation networks for innovation need strengthening. Government support and its role on innovation was also limited. Firms hardly accessed technical assistance from the government and research institutions. Similarly, firms have limited cooperation with the academe in terms of innovation activities. Firms cooperated more internally with establishments within their enterprise, their customers, and suppliers for their innovation activities. Given these issues, the government needs to have a champion for developing stronger policies and interventions to support and encourage innovation. It is also important to improve information dissemination regarding public programs available to assist firms to pursue innovation. Networking, linkages, and collaboration among the government, industry associations, and universities and research institutions also require further enhancement.
    Keywords: innovation, business, Philippines, process innovation, product innovation, organizational innovation, marketing innovation, MSMEs, micro, small, and medium enterprises, 2015 Survey of Innovation Activities of Establishments
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Gupta, Bishnupriya
    Abstract: India fell behind during colonial rule. The absolute and relative decline of Indian GDP per capita with respect to Britain began before colonization and coincided with the rising textile trade with Europe in the 18th century. The decline of traditional industries was not the main driver Indian decline and stagnation. Inadequate investment in agriculture and consequent decline in yield per acre stalled economic growth. Modern industries emerged and grew relatively fast. The falling behind was reversed after independence. Policies of industrialization and a green revolution in agriculture increased productivity growth in agriculture and industry, but Indian growth has been led by services. A strong focus on higher education under colonial policy had created an advantage for the service sector, which today has a high concentration of human capital. However, the slow expansion in primary education was a disadvantage in comparison with the high growth East Asian economies
    Keywords: Financial Economics
    Date: 2018–01–01
  16. By: Chayakrit Asvathitanont (Thammasat University); Nopphon Tangjitprom (Assumption University of Thailand); Vorapol Socatiyanurak (National Legislative Assembly of Thailand)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to review the impact of the market on Adoption of Corporate Governance in Thailand for a decade during 2003-2017. The study examines the firm-level return in both operations, from ROA & ROE, and equity price return from different level of Corporate Governance rating in comparison to the market-Stock Exchange of Thailand through out the period. The study employs the long-term cross sectional comparison between firms which separate the Corporate Governance Rating firms into four quartile rank as Excellence, Very Good, Good and Poor Corporate Governance Rating. The test of quartile differences indicated that the Excellent level of Corporate Governance firms were performing better in comparison to the Poor level in four measures of returns which are Annual Monthly Return and Annual Holding Period Return, ROE and ROA as well as the TOBINQ.
    Keywords: Corporate Governance, Long Term Performance
    JEL: G34
    Date: 2018–07
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;Vietnam;
    Date: 2018–07–10
  18. By: Saunders, Caroline; Guenther, Meike; Saunders, John; Dalziel, Paul; Rutherford, Paul
    Abstract: This study examined consumer attitudes towards attributes in food and beverages in China, India, Indonesia, Japan and the UK. The attributes are basic attributes such as price and quality, but also included food safety, health benefits, environmental and social attributes. The importance of factors affecting key attributes were examined in more detail. The study used a web-based survey with 1,000 middle and upper income consumers in each country. In addition, the potential economic impact of agricultural returns of different levels of premiums for food attributes in New Zealand were examined using the partial equilibrium Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). This study found that consumers from developing countries valued food attributes more than the developed countries. Trade model projections showed an important impact on the agricultural sectors in New Zealand from the different levels of premiums for food attributes in selected overseas markets.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Marketing
    Date: 2017–04–24
  19. By: Stephen Ayerst; Loren Brandt; Diego Restuccia
    Abstract: We examine important changes in agriculture in Vietnam in the context of ongoing structural changes in the economy. We use a household-level panel dataset and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture during the period between 2006 and 2016. Despite rapid growth in agricultural productivity and a reallocation of factor inputs to more productive farmers, we find that misallocation across farmers remains high and increased during the period. Reallocation of factor inputs has not been strong enough to accommodate substantial changes in farm productivity over time. Our analysis also reveals important differences between the north and south regions.
    Keywords: agriculture, misallocation, Vietnam, productivity, regions.
    JEL: O11 O14 O4 E02 Q1
    Date: 2018–08–22
  20. By: Cesar Escalante (University of Georgia); Hofner Rusiana (University of Georgia)
    Abstract: Microfinance borrowers tend to have no properties to offer as loan security (collateral) as they are poor and low-income, and thus would constitute a considerable risk to lenders once they default. MFIs, therefore, have to device a system to ensure that loan defaults are as low as possible in order to maintain their financial sustainability, without which they would resort to higher interest rates that would only defeat the original intent of their microfinance lending philosophy.This paper seeks to identify factors that affect the voluntary exits or forced eviction of Philippine borrowers from microfinance lending networks focusing on indicators that are (a)internal to the borrowers? personal circumstances and business operating environments; and(b)those that capture the microfinance institutions? loan delivery operations. The analysis will analyze data compiled by the Social Enterprise Development Partnerships, Inc. (SEDPI) on micro-insurance borrowers in the Philippines from 2000 to 2010. Econometric analysis will employ Heckman selection techniques to determine significant determinants of either the forced eviction or the voluntary exit of MFI borrowers. Two versions of the Heckman equation system will be developed. The first version defines the selection equation to select MFI borrower observations who were forced to leave the program (FORCED=1; VOLUNTARY=0) for the outcome equation that identifies significant factors behind such MFI action. The second version?s selection equation focuses on the voluntary borrower exits (VOLUNTARY=1; FORCED=0) so that the outcome equation will determine significant factors behind such borrowers? decisions. Explanatory variables will capture personal, business, Centre-related, and macroeconomic factors. Expected results will shed light on how sudden changes in personal circumstances of certain borrowers (physical and economic), business viability issues (often associated with macroeconomic conditions), and institutional factors affecting borrower servicing and other borrower-lender relationship issues may lead to either the MFIs? decision to evict certain borrowers or individual borrowers voluntarily deciding to exit from the MFI lending system. This study offers important implications on achieving a proper balance of financial sustainability and social outreach goals of microfinance operations. This balancing of goals has been a difficult challenge for most MFIs globally. The Philippine microfinance experience may help shed light on possible remedies to this elusive balancing goal.
    Keywords: microfinance, forced exit, voluntary exit, financial sustainability, loan repayment, loan delivery
    JEL: D19 G21 L26
    Date: 2018–07
  21. By: Das, Bikramjit (Singapore University of Technology and Design); Kratz, Marie (ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School)
    Abstract: We analyze risk diversification in a portfolio of heavy-tailed risk factors under the assumption of second order multivariate regular variation. Asymptotic limits for a measure of diversification benefit are obtained when considering, for instance, the value-at-risk . The asymptotic limits are computed in a few examples exhibiting a variety of different assumptions made on marginal or joint distributions. This study ties up existing related results available in the literature under a broader umbrella.
    Keywords: asymptotic theory; diversification benefit; heavy tail; risk concentration; second order regular variation; value-at-risk
    JEL: C02
    Date: 2017–04
  22. By: Mark, SiuSue
    Abstract: This policy brief draws on qualitative fieldwork conducted in Maubin township, Ayeyarwady – one of the most important locations for aquaculture (fish farming) in Myanmar. Local officials, community members, civil society leaders and operators of large fish farms were interviewed about the history and consequences of land confiscation for use in aquaculture, and the prospects for land restitution.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2017–08–08
  23. By: Belton, Ben; Filipski, Mateusz; Hu, Chaoran
    Abstract: Fish farming (aquaculture) has grown rapidly in Myanmar over the last two decades and plays an increasingly important role in national fish supply, but its technical and economic characteristics have been little studied. Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy (FSP) has conducted the first statistically representative survey of fish farms conducted in Myanmar: the Myanmar AquacultureAgriculture Survey (MAAS). Features analyzed include: farm productivity and profitability; farm size; production cycle duration; use of feed, seed and other production inputs; demand for labor; harvesting and marketing behaviors; technological change; the economic and social characteristics of fish farming households; and land access and tenure.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2017–05–05
  24. By: Noppamash Suvachart (Khon Kaen University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this research was to investigate perceptions of people who live around The Rajamangala National Stadium regarding sporting events impact on the community. The Rajamangala National Stadium is the national stadium of Thailand and the home stadium for the Thailand national football team. It is part of the HuaMak Sports Complex, locate in HuaMak Subdistrict, BangKapi, Bangkok. Host population perceptions were measured through a two-page self-completed questionnaire written in Thai, administered to a sample of 400 residents of the district of Bangkapi (population 67,931 members) in Bangkok, Thailand. Resident questionnaires were distributed within 2 months, August ? October 2017. The questionnaire comprised 27 questions. The first part aimed to identify awareness of event being staged. The second part contained 2 Open ended questions designed to find out how sporting event effect community, positive and negative impacts, with 8 items measure of residents? perceptions of impact. These items related to personal quality of life, quality of life of community, sense of community and community pride. The final part included questions relate to involvement characteristics of respondents; attend sporting events in year 2017 or previous years, level of interest in event, type of involvement in event by respondent or household member, distance from house, and socio-demographic data. Once collected, all data were entered into SPSS version 15.0 for further analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the subjects and the perceived impacts of sporting events. Because of qualitative approach, the findings were described the central position of a frequency distribution for a group of data by mode. Mode is the number that occurs most often in a set of numbers. The results presented by descriptive with percentage in the form of tables, and text. We found both positive and negative impacts of sporting events performance on the community. The findings were identified as seven main positive impacts and six main negative impacts. These impacts related to economic, social and environmental of the community. The directions for future sporting events research on environmental studies: impact and evaluation studies including sustainability and greening of sporting events such as reducing garbage. More research on consequences of sporting events effect local culture community.
    Keywords: Sporting event, Business, Social responsibility, Economic, Environmental
    JEL: M16
    Date: 2018–07
  25. By: Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim; Park, Donghyun
    Abstract: The upward trajectory of OECD policy interest rates may impose growing fiscal challenges, thus testing the fiscal space of countries and their resilience. Against this background, we compare fiscal cyclicality across Asia, Latin America, OECD, and other regions from 1960-2016, then identify factors that explain countries’ government spending and tax-policy cyclicality. Our study reveals a mixed fiscal scenery, where more than half of the countries are recently characterized by limited fiscal space, and fiscal policy is either acyclical or procyclical (though not as high the level of 1980s), notably post-GFC becoming even more procyclical in government spending when accounting for net acquisition of nonfinancial assets and capital expenditure (spending components do matter). The cyclicality is asymmetric: on average, a more indebted (relative to tax base) government spent more in good times (positive growth) and cut back the spending even more in bad times (weak economy). Added to the public debt/GDP data, we construct the ‘limited-fiscal-capacity’ statistic, measured by the size of public debt/[average tax revenue] and its volatility, which is found positively associated with the fiscal pro-cyclicality. Further, we also find that country’s sovereign wealth fund has a countercyclical effect in our estimation. The analysis depicts a significant economic impact of an enduring interest rate rise on fiscal space: a 10% increase of public debt/tax base is associated with an upper bound of 6.1% increase in government-spending procyclicality. For both government-spending cyclicality and tax-rate cyclicality, we find no one-size-fit-all explanation for all (OECD/developing) countries at all (good/bad) times. Fiscal space, trade and financial openness, the share of natural resource/manufacturing exports, inflation, and institutional risks are associated with the cross-country patterns of fiscal cyclicality, suggesting the measured cyclicality is context specific and the fiscal-monetary-political economy interactions are at work. We rank the explanatory factors across countries and regions, and discuss policies to increase the fiscal capacity for countercyclical policy.
    Keywords: Fiscal space, Government spending, Fiscal cyclicality,
    Date: 2018
  26. By: Watzka, Klaus
    Abstract: Das Bundeskabinett hat am 01.08.2018 das Pflegepersonal-Stärkungsgesetz beschlossen. Unter anderem ist darin die Einstellung von 13.000 zusätzlichen Pflegefachkräften vorgesehen. Angesichts der derzeitigen Mangelsituation in diesem Berufsfeld bestehen starke Zweifel, ob diese Stellen adäquat besetzt werden können. Zukunftsprojektionen für das Jahr 2030 zeigen, dass sich die Pflegekraftlücke noch deutlich vergrößern wird. Auch der Zugriff auf bislang unerschlossene Arbeitskräftepotenziale wird zur Schließung nicht ausreichend sein. Die soziale Dramatik dieses Problems verbietet eine abwartende Haltung. Bisher beschlossene Maßnahmen sind zu kleinteilig und zu reaktiv angelegt. Es sind kurzfristig Handlungen erforderlich, die einen aktiven Lösungsbeitrag in einer substanziellen Größenordnung leisten. Vorgeschlagen wird in einem stark fokussierten Handlungsansatz die Errichtung einer groß dimensionierten Pflegefachschule (10.000 Plätze) in einem Drittland. Es wird ein begründeter Kriterienkatalog für die Auswahl geeigneter Länder vorgestellt. Als potenziell geeignetes Land wird Vietnam diskutiert.
    Keywords: Arbeitsmarkt,Demografische Veränderung,Fachkräftemangel,Personalbeschaffung,Pflegefachkräfte,Pflegepersonal-Stärkungsgesetz
    JEL: I19 I29 J08 J11 J44 J61 J68 L89 M51 M53 O53
    Date: 2018
  27. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: 2017 was a bumper year of broad-based and non-inflationary growth. Reforms continued, including in the banking sector, privatizations and cuts in red tape. The momentum is expected to continue, aided by reforms, higher potential output, and the global recovery. However, economic distortions and capacity constraints remain, as do external and domestic risks and longer-term challenges. The strong economy provides an opportunity for additional reforms to boost investment, ensure durable growth and resilient balance sheets, and reduce the external surplus.
    Keywords: Vietnam;Asia and Pacific;
    Date: 2018–07–10
  28. By: Li, Liyao (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Yang, Zhenlin (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: In this paper, M-estimation and inference methods are developed for spatial dynamic panel data models with correlated random effects, based on short panels. The unobserved individual-specific effects are assumed to be correlated with the observed time-varying regressors linearly or in a linearizable way, giving the so-called correlated random effects model, which allows the estimation of effects of time-invariant regressors. The unbiased estimating functions are obtained by adjusting the conditional quasi-scores given the initial observations, leading to M-estimators that are consistent, asymptotically normal, and free from the initial conditions except the process starting time. By decomposing the estimating functions into sums of terms uncorrelated given idiosyncratic errors, a hybrid method is developed for consistently estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the M-estimators, which again depends only on the process starting time. Monte Carlo results demonstrate that the proposed methods perform well in finite sample.
    Keywords: Adjusted quasi score; Dynamic panels; Correlated random effects; Initial-conditions; Martingale difference; Spatial effects; Short panels
    JEL: C10 C13 C15 C21 C23
    Date: 2018–08–23
  29. By: Belton, Ben
    Abstract: This note seeks to contribute to the ongoing debates around the revision of Myanmar’s 2012 Farmland Law. It summarizes key findings of research conducted in the main fish farming areas of Myanmar on the relationship between aquaculture (fish farming) and land use. It makes recommendations for the revision of land use regulations that would allow aquaculture to develop in a manner that benefits small producers and yields more equitable outcomes.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2017–04–04
  30. By: Andras Tothmihaly,; Verina Ingram.
    Abstract: This study investigates the Indonesian cocoa production to reveal the possibilities for poverty alleviation while considering the threats to environmental sustainability. We estimate, based on a large household panel data set and stochastic frontier analysis, the technical efficiency of cocoa production and decompose productivity growth. According to our results, the productivity of Indonesian cocoa farming increased by 75 percent between 2001 and 2013. Technical efficiency growth and the increased chemicals use supported by government subsidies were responsible for the majority of this gain. Furthermore, we find large distortions in the input allocations. Hence, policies that encourage the adjustment of the cocoa farms’ input use would be highly beneficial. Moreover, because of the weather-induced volatility in cocoa production, policy makers should also promote investment in agricultural research and transfer of drought-resistant cocoa varieties to farmers. Additionally, the average efficiency of cocoa farmers is estimated to be around 50 percent. We find that farmers’ educational attainment and their experience in cocoa farming are significant factors that can increase the efficiency levels.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2017–07–05
  31. By: Melanie Krause (Hamburg University, Germany); Stefan Szymanski (University of Michigan, USA)
    Abstract: Unconditional convergence across countries worldwide is typically rejected in terms of GDP per capita. But when focusing on a specific internationally competitive industry, such as manufacturing, rather than the overall economy, unconditional convergence has been found to hold. As the epitome of competition and globalization, this paper uses the performance of national soccer teams as a further test case. We rely on data of more than 25,000 games between 1950 and 2014 and find clear evidence of unconditional $\beta$- and $\sigma$-convergence in national team performance, as measured either by win percentages or goal difference. We argue that transfer of technologies, skills and best practices fosters this catch-up process. But there are limits: we show that good teams from Africa and Asia are failing to close the gap with top European or South American teams for reasons that are analogous to the "middle income trap". Lessons for other sectors include the virtues of internationally transferable human capital as well as the mixed blessings of regional integration for worldwide convergence.
    Keywords: unconditional convergence, global competition, soccer, middle income trap.
    JEL: O47 L83 F20
    Date: 2017–12
  32. By: Parvathi, Priyanka
    Abstract: Under-nutrition and lack of micro-nutrients continues to remain a challenge in developing countries. As the undernourished are largely smallholder farmers, it is predominantly perceived that farm diversification and mixed crop-livestock agricultural systems can help alleviate this problem. But empirical evidence in this context is limited. Hence, this work examines whether farm production diversity as well as mixed crop-livestock farming lead to dietary diversity among smallholder farmers in Laos, using a two year panel data. Results from the fixed effects regression indicate that although farm production diversity does lead to a higher dietary diversity; the effect diminishes with continued diversification. The counterfactual analysis from the endogenous switching regression shows that following mixed crop-livestock farming system reduces household dietary diversity. We further find that markets play a significant role in enhancing the dietary diversity of the specialized farmers.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2017–08–15
  33. By: Rogelio Mercado Jr. (South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre)
    Abstract: Using bilateral capital flows data from 10 advanced reporting economies—with over 186 bilateral country pairs—for 2000 to 2016, this paper provides strong evidence on the significance of gravity factors, including distance and bilateral trade ties, in explaining cross-border financial asset flows. This finding is new to the capital flows literature that consider push and pull factors. In addition, this study offers new evidence of regional contagion as bilateral capital flows decrease more for country pairs with closer geographic proximity (or with less information frictions) than those that are farther apart when global risk aversion rises. These findings have policy implications on the importance of information frictions, bilateral trade ties, and regional cooperation on bilateral financial asset flows.
    Keywords: bilateral capital flows, information frictions, bilateral factors
    JEL: F21 F36 G10
    Date: 2018–08
  34. By: Stephen Oluwatobi (Covenant University, Nigeria); Isaiah Olurinola (Covenant University, Nigeria); Philip Alege (Covenant University, Nigeria); Adeyemi Ogundipe (Covenant University, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The experience of South Korea, India, China and Singapore reveals that developing economies can fasttrack development, leapfrog the stages of development and catch up with advanced economies by putting knowledge capital as the driver of development. If the knowledge economy is therefore an accelerant of development for both advanced and developing economies, it is possible for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies to also catch up with advanced economies. It was on this basis that this study assessed the knowledge capacity of SSA and the effect it has on its economic advancement. Given the importance of the interrelatedness among the knowledge economy elements, this study, thus, examined how the interaction effect between the elements of the knowledge economy affects economic growth in 32 SSA countries, for which data were available, over the period of 17 years (1996-2012). Using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), the study found out that institutions and human capital in SSA mitigate the effect of innovation on economic growth in the region, thus, making it a lean knowledge economy.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Human Capital; ICT; Innovation; Institutions; Knowledge Economy
    JEL: O10 O30 O38 O55 O57
    Date: 2018–01
  35. By: Seah, Kelvin (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: A large body of research has found that, by being better able to serve as cultural translators and role models, demographically-similar teachers can increase students' achievement. These studies have tended to focus on the role of race and gender similarities between student and teacher. This study is the first to examine the role of native language similarity. Using a nationally representative dataset from the United States which allows each student to be matched with two of his subject teachers, this study exploits variation in contemporaneous test scores and whether the student shares the same native language as the teacher across two different academic subjects, within-student, to identify the effect of being assigned to a linguistically-similar teacher. The effect is examined separately for students who are native Spanish-speakers and students who are native English-speakers. It finds that, unconditional on teacher ethnicity, assignment to a native Spanish-speaking teacher reduces the achievement of native Spanish-speaking students, particularly in Science and English. However, once differences in teacher ethnicity are controlled for, a native Spanish-speaking student does no worse or better on his test score when assigned to a native Spanish-speaking teacher than when assigned to a non-native Spanish-speaking teacher. For native English-speaking students, assignment to a linguistically-similar teacher has no impact on achievement. This finding applies regardless of whether teacher ethnicity is controlled for.
    Keywords: native language, student achievement, student fixed effects
    JEL: I21 J15
    Date: 2018–07

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