nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒09‒03
34 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Thailand’s Automotive Manufacturing Corridor By Warr, Peter; Kohpaiboon, Archanun
  2. International Trade and Deforestation: Potential Policy Effects via a Global Economic Model By Beckman, Jayson; Sands, Ronald D.; Riddle, Anne A.; Lee, Tani; Walloga, Jacob M.
  3. International Trade and Deforestation: Potential Policy Effects via a Global Economic Model By Beckman, Jayson; Sands, Ron; Riddle, Anne; Lee, Tani; Walloga, Jacob M.
  4. Individual time preferences of married couples in a fisheries society By Yayan Hernuryadin; Koji Kotani; Tatsuyoshi Saijo
  5. Moc Chau vegetable farmers’ use of data-aided decision-making, traceability, quality assurance, and access to higher value markets By Sen, Pham Thi
  6. Investigating casino event management integration: The case of East and South Asia casinos By Huang, Tzu-Wei (Arwen); Tseng, Wan-Yu (Quentina); Lin, Jing-Yao (Jerry); Tay, Ching-Xiong (Dennis)
  7. Food loss in supermarkets: what can supermarkets do to reduce food loss? By Daryanto, Arief; Sahara
  8. The mega cities, mega waste 'last mile' challenge By Woodhead, Alice
  9. Mobile on-farm digital technology for smallholder farmers By Sukkarieh, Salah
  10. Towards global phosphorus security through nutrient reuse By Cordell, Dana
  11. Price Asymmetry of Coffee Beans: Evidence from Vietnam By Mai, Thang Chien; Shakur, Shamim; Cassells, Sue
  12. Mechanism Design with Financially Constrained Agents and Costly Verification* By Yunan Li
  13. EDB COUNTRIES: TARGETING LOWER INFLATION By Lissovolik, Yaroslav; Kuznetsov, Aleksei; Berdigulova, Aigul
  14. Drivers of Growth in Fast Emerging Economies: a Dynamic Instrumental Quantile Approach to Real Output and its Rates of Growth in BRICS and MINT countries, 2001-2011 By Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas
  15. Les échanges de bovins vivants et de viande bovine dans le monde et dans l’UE : trajectoires productives et commerciales des principaux pays impliqués By Chatellier, Vincent
  16. Nitrogen for smallholders and cereal crops in Myanmar: economic and social dimensions for fertility decisions By Farquharson, Bob; Ramilan, Thiagarajah; Thar, So Pyay; Than, Shwe Mar; Aung, Nay Myo
  17. Asian Option Pricing under Uncertain Volatility Model By Yuecai Han; Chunyang Liu
  18. Aggregate Consequences of Credit Subsidy Policies: Firm Dynamics and Misallocation By In Hwan Jo; Tatsuro Senga
  19. Economic Corridors and Regional Development: The Malaysian Experience By Athukorala, Prema-chandra; Narayanan, Suresh
  20. The Global Landscape of Agricultural Trade, 1995-2014 By Beckman, Jayson; Dyck, John; Heerman, Kari
  21. Domestic value creation in the involvement in global value chains: Evidence of China By Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  22. Domestic quality certification and growth of Vietnamese MSMEs By Calza, Elisa; Goedhuys, Micheline
  23. Crop health capacity-building in least developed countries: a unique approach By Healey, Madaline
  24. Indonesia; Technical Assistance Report – Residential Property Price Statistics Capacity Development Mission By International Monetary Fund
  25. Global data, farm size and food and nutrition security By Herrero, Mario
  26. Export boom, employment bust? The paradox of Indonesia's displaced workers, 2000-14 By Shrestha, Rashesh; Coxhead, Ian
  27. Are Employment Protection Laws for Disabled People E ective in a Developing Country? Evidence from Cambodia By Palmer, Michael; Williams, Jenny
  28. How Women Have Fared with the Rise of the People’s Republic of China in Global Supply Chain Trade By Wang, Limin; Kanji, Shireen; Jha, Shikha; Meurs, Mieke E.
  29. The Role and Impact of Infrastructure in Middle-Income Countries: Anything Special? By Abiad, Abdul; Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita; Sy, Andrea Loren
  30. Affordable Housing and Cyclical Fluctuations: The Malaysian Property Market By Ferlito, Carmelo
  31. Do MAD researchers add value for smallholders? By Higgins, Stuart
  32. Risk-taking over the Life Cycle: Aggregate and Distributive Implications of Entrepreneurial Risk By Dejanir Silva; Robert Townsend
  33. Returns to Scale, Productivity Measurement, and Trends in U.S. Manufacturing Misallocation By Sui-Jade Ho; Dimitrije Ruzic
  34. The Effects of Land Markets on Resource Allocation and Agricultural Productivity By Chaoran Chen; Diego Restuccia; Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis

  1. By: Warr, Peter (Australian National University); Kohpaiboon, Archanun (Thammasat University)
    Abstract: Thailand’s export-oriented automotive industry is a recognized economic success story. How did it happen and what lessons might other countries draw? This paper argues that the success of the industry was based on three factors. First was the substantial public investment in port facilities and related infrastructure, beginning in the 1990s, that constituted the Eastern Seaboard economic corridor. Second was the exchange rate depreciation that followed the 1997–1999 Asian Financial Crisis, making manufacturing production for export more profitable. The third factor was two key policy changes adopted by the Thai government shortly after the crisis, and partly in response to it: (a) abolition of restrictions on foreign ownership and (b) abolition of local content requirements. Neighboring countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, also experienced the crisis and were potential competitors in attracting foreign investment in automotive production for export. But they did not adopt these two key reforms.
    Keywords: automotive exports; Eastern Seaboard scheme; final assembly; parts and components; Thailand
    JEL: F14 L62 O18 O24
    Date: 2017–12–01
  2. By: Beckman, Jayson; Sands, Ronald D.; Riddle, Anne A.; Lee, Tani; Walloga, Jacob M.
    Abstract: Increasing global population and demand for food have led to rising agricultural production and demand for land; expanded agricultural land has often come from tropical deforestation. These forests support biodiverse ecosystems and further benefit the environment through carbon storage. This report analyzes patterns of deforestation in select countries to examine which commodities contribute most to “tropical” deforestation. ERS researchers use historical data on production and international trade patterns of four forest-risk commodities: palm oil, soybeans, beef, and forest products. Trade links for these commodities are quantified between the United States and six major exporting countries: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Deforestation in Argentina and Brazil is linked with production of beef and soybeans, while deforestation in Indonesia and Malaysia is linked with production of palm oil and timber. A global economic model is used to assess two potential policies that could affect tropical forest loss. Results indicate that removing tariffs on these forest-risk products could increase deforestation, while prohibiting exports of illegally logged wood could reduce deforestation.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2017–04–01
  3. By: Beckman, Jayson; Sands, Ron; Riddle, Anne; Lee, Tani; Walloga, Jacob M.
    Abstract: Increasing global population and demand for food have led to rising agricultural production and demand for land; expanded agricultural land has often come from tropical deforestation. These forests support biodiverse ecosystems and further benefit the environment through carbon storage. This report analyzes patterns of deforestation in select countries to examine which commodities contribute most to “tropical” deforestation. ERS researchers use historical data on production and international trade patterns of four forest-risk commodities: palm oil, soybeans, beef, and forest products. Trade links for these commodities are quantified between the United States and six major exporting countries: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Deforestation in Argentina and Brazil is linked with production of beef and soybeans, while deforestation in Indonesia and Malaysia is linked with production of palm oil and timber. A global economic model is used to assess two potential policies that could affect tropical forest loss. Results indicate that removing tariffs on these forest-risk products could increase deforestation, while prohibiting exports of illegally logged wood could reduce deforestation.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2017–04–27
  4. By: Yayan Hernuryadin (Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Republic of Indonesia); Koji Kotani (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Tatsuyoshi Saijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology)
    Abstract: Overexploitation of marine resources in Indonesia is threatening their sustainability and is considered to be induced by shortsightedness of fishermen and/or of their wives at household level. Given this states of affairs, we address individual time preferences of married couples (fishermen and their wives) in fisheries. To this end, we conduct an individual discounting elicitation experiment with 200 married couples (200 fishermen and 200 fishermen’s wives) in an Indonesian fisheries society, Karawang regency. We find that fishermen’s discount factors are slightly higher than their wives’ ones on an average with positive correlation between the two, and their incomes have idiosyncratic influences on individual time preferences of a couple. Fishermen’s incomes weakly influence only wives’ time preferences, while wives’ incomes significantly and positively affect not only fishermen’s but also wives’ time preferences to be farsighted. The betafit regression demonstrates that a wife’s (fisherman’s) discount factor increases by 5.1% (5.6 %) when a wife’s income increases by 1 million Rp. This result suggests that economic empowerment of fishermen’s wives is key for sustainability of marine resources and societies in Indonesia.
    Keywords: Time preferences, Income, Fishermen, Fishermen's wives, Fisheries society
    Date: 2018–08
  5. By: Sen, Pham Thi
    Abstract: Farmers in the Son La region of north-west Vietnam are working together with ACIAR to produce high quality vegetables, supplying emerging retail markets in Vietnam. The market for high quality vegetables in Vietnam is expanding rapidly. Project farmers in Moc Chau supplied 690 tonnes of VietGAP-accredited safe-to-eat vegetables in 2016. That was 65% more than in the previous year. ACIAR projects AGB/2009/053 and AGB/2014/035 have identified the smart use of data as a key factor in helping Vietnamese farmers supply emerging retail vegetable markets. Data management has been used for: 1. Maintaining farm records. Farmers must keep records about agronomy and use of chemicals so they can trade VietGAP-certified vegetables to lucrative retail markets. 2. Value chain reporting. Analysis of vegetable input costs, prices and throughput data using specific software (MonQi® Fresh Studio) is used to inform farmers of the most profitable crops and when to produce them, and to measure their net farm income. 3. QR codes. Farmers are now using QR codes to help trace the origin of vegetable crops supplied to retailers back to the individual farms where they were produced. QR codes are ideal for developing countries because they do not require special barcode readers and software systems.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2017–08–08
  6. By: Huang, Tzu-Wei (Arwen); Tseng, Wan-Yu (Quentina); Lin, Jing-Yao (Jerry); Tay, Ching-Xiong (Dennis)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate the gap of event management in East and South Asia’s casinos throughout the information provided by casinos on their websites. Main objective is to identify the differences and similarities of event holding in East and South Asia’s casinos and suggest future directions for casino managers and event organizers. Four research questions were developed to provide ourselves a goal, as well as to further our understanding of our investigation. There are two steps to structure our study. First is to evaluate the performance of 138 casino’s websites, which were obtained from worldcasinodirectory. com by using a website evaluation tool that we have constructed. In the second step, we conduct a content analysis for the website so we can identify what kind of events are organized in the area on our samples. The data of the content analysis provides a comparison of events in our sampling, such as the event’s size, type, and frequency of holding an event. We believe that our research would contribute to event organizers and large scale corporations to give them an insight on the overall efficiency of websites, as well as the frequency of events around East and South Asian casinos.
    Keywords: Event; casinos; websites; content analysis; evaluation tool
    JEL: L83 M1
    Date: 2017–03–27
  7. By: Daryanto, Arief; Sahara
    Abstract: Food loss occurs along the entire food chain, including losses at wholesale and retail markets. Among retail markets, supermarkets have important roles in food chains since they are located close to the end of the food chain. In developing countries, supermarkets are increasing, and are making a significant contribution to national retail food sales. Along with rapid development, food loss occurs in significant amounts in supermarkets since they sell large quantities of food. This paper aims to review and estimate food loss and food waste in Indonesian supermarkets focusing on fresh fruit and vegetables, fish and meat products. First we review food loss in supermarkets from the previous literature. Then we report on a case study conducted with a leading supermarket in Indonesia in order to estimate its food loss and its efforts to prevent the amount of food loss. Reducing food loss in supermarkets is an important issue in terms of the efforts to increase profit in supermarkets, to increase income for small farmers supplying to supermarkets, and to improve food security in urban areas, as well as avoid environmental problems caused by food waste.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, Industrial Organization
    Date: 2016–08–29
  8. By: Woodhead, Alice
    Abstract: Across Asia, rapid growth of mega cities is driving change in retail outlets and consumer purchasing. Mega city economies are increasing the purchasing power of millions of people, creating the middle class of Asia. Many Asian consumers are internationally educated and are adopting the food habits of western consumers. Increasingly, shelf-ready packaged meats, cheese and imported fruit and vegetables are now purchased from supermarkets rather than local wet markets. In the past, most of Asian food wastage occurred post-harvest, during distribution to wet markets. Congested mega cities have limited cold storage systems and most food continues to be transported in nonrefrigerated trucks. Travel times have increased along congested roads and much imported and local food has lost its freshness long before it reaches the consumer. This results in very short shelf life and increased waste. The systemic failures across food distribution and waste management systems are resulting in mega waste. Unsorted waste, from the ‘last mile’ (distribution centre to consumption), ends up in open landfills on the edges of cities. The challenge is immense. This and the next four presentations explore some of the technology and policy drivers that can help us to understand the problem, including creating energy from waste, and helping consumers make informed choices.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2016–08–29
  9. By: Sukkarieh, Salah
    Abstract: For over 10 years the Australian Centre for Field Robotics (ACFR) at the University of Sydney has been developing novel mechatronic and software systems for the Australian agriculture industry. The aim is to support farmers with the research, development and commercialisation of digital tools that would help them increase yield and productivity and reduce input costs. In 2015 the ACFR received philanthropic funding to look at designing similar technology for smallholder farmers. The hypothesis is that with an appropriate education and training program coupled with low-cost on-farm mobile platforms and digital tools adapted from more precise technology, a system and methodology could be developed that delivers food and nutrition security and encourages next-generation growers to adopt digital agriculture techniques. These requirements led to the development of the Digital Farmhand. The Digital Farmhand comprises a small mobile platform that can be hand towed, remotely controlled, or set into autonomous mode. On the mobile platform exists a smartphone, sensors, and computing. Collectively the system can undertake precision seeding, spraying and weeding. Through the digital capability of monitoring and analysing individual plants the system has the potential to support better on-farm decision making, helping growers increase yield and productivity, reduce input costs, and maximise nutrition security. The Digital Farmhand has been trialled amongst small farm holders in Australia as well as in Indonesia and will be trialled next year in the Pacific Islands. The objective of these trials is to close in on the requirements that would meet the needs of those communities.
    Keywords: Farm Management, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2017–08–08
  10. By: Cordell, Dana
    Abstract: It is not widely recognised that the reuse of phosphorus will be crucial to achieving future food security, supporting farmer livelihoods and buffering against emerging geopolitical risks. All farmers need access to phosphorus fertilisers to grow crops, yet just five countries control 85% of the world’s main source: phosphate rock. Morocco alone controls three-quarters of the world’s remaining phosphate. These phosphate reserves are non-renewable, and becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. Already one in six farmers cannot access fertiliser markets. The 800% phosphate price spike in 2008 demonstrated the vulnerability of global and local food systems to even a short-term disruption in supply. At the same time, a staggering 80% of phosphorus is lost or wasted in the supply chain between mine, farm and fork. Much of this ends up in rivers and lakes, leading to widespread nutrient pollution and algal blooms. The good news is that phosphorus can be recovered and reused from all organic sources in the food system: food waste, human excreta, manure, crop waste. Indeed, there are over 50 low- to high-tech solutions. However, phosphorus vulnerability is very context-specific, and what works in one country may be inappropriate or ineffective in another region. This case study highlights a path forward, including examples from Vietnam, Malawi and Australia. Investing in phosphorus reuse creates locally available ‘renewable fertilisers’. This simultaneously: reduces dependence on imports from geopolitically risky regions and therefore buffers against future price spikes and supply disruptions; reduces phosphorus waste in the food supply chain; and reduces the risk of nutrient pollution.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty
    Date: 2016–08–29
  11. By: Mai, Thang Chien; Shakur, Shamim; Cassells, Sue
    Abstract: The research evaluates the price transmission between export and farmgate prices for Vietnam’s Robusta coffee. Our findings suggest that minor asymmetry price transmission exists for export prices in the long-run and for farm prices in the short-run when thresholds are considered. Besides, the daily speed of adjustment is so high as to lead one to conclude that the price transmission is symmetric. Some possible explanations include the low concentration of local exporters, Robusta’s low quality, and coffee oversupply. Given the recent downward trend in global coffee bean prices, this result also implies that liberalisation current policies are inadequate to ensuring coffee farmers’ welfare.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2016–08–25
  12. By: Yunan Li (Department of Economics, City University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: A principal wishes to distribute an indivisible good to a population of budget-constrained agents. Both valuation and budget are an agent’s private information. The principal can inspect an agent’s budget through a costly verification process and punish an agent who makes a false statement. I characterize the direct surplus-maximizing mechanism. This direct mechanism can be implemented by a two-stage mechanism in which agents only report their budgets. Specifically, all agents report their budgets in the first stage. The principal then provides budget dependent cash subsidies to agents and assigns the goods randomly (with uniform probability) at budget-dependent prices. In the second stage, a resale market opens, but is regulated with budget-dependent sales taxes. Agents who report low budgets receive more subsidies in their initial purchases (the first stage), face higher taxes in the resale market (the second stage) and are inspected randomly. This implementation exhibits some of the features of some welfare programs, such as Singapore’s housing and development board.
    Keywords: Mechanism Design, Budget Constraints, Efficiency, Costly Verification
    JEL: D45 D61 D82 H42
    Date: 2017–01–18
  13. By: Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank)
    Abstract: The beginning of the last year proved to be challenging for the EBD Member States: with oil prices plummeting, both financial markets and exchange rates were highly volatile. Nevertheless, as of the year’s end, the countries of the region saw exchange rates stabilize, and, in a number of cases, their national currencies strengthened considerably. Similarly, inflation in the EBD countries reached its historic minimum of 5.8% at the end of 2016 as compared to 12.8% in late 2015. In 2017, the most probable scenario is continued inertial recovery in the EDB Member States and inflation decreasing as external conditions stabilize. We project a 0.9% growth of the EDB economies, with a further 1.5% acceleration in 2018-2019. And there remain opportunities for reducing inflation that we expect to decrease from 5.8% at the end of 2016 to 4.7% in 2017. Limited demand, stabilized exchange rates and capital flows and a conservative monetary policy in most countries of the region will support the continued downward inflation trend. In 2017, the budget sector will be the main macroeconomic challenge for the EDB countries, given the growth in debt of the countries of the region (Belarus and Kazakhstan), reduced State budget reserves (the Russian Federation) and sizeable budget gaps in 2016 (Armenia and Kyrgyzstan). The oil output reduction agreement reached with the OPEC countries in 2016 was an important event for the region’s major economies and generated a considerable recovery of petroleum prices. The 2017 focus will now be on the OPEC countries’ ability to adhere to their quotas/obligations; historically, the OPEC countries have had great difficulty in observing discipline. Still, the agreement itself mitigates somewhat the risks of a sudden and large-scale fall of oil prices similar to their decline in late 2015 and early 2016. In the field of economic policy, the EAEU countries are just beginning to fully utilize, in the last few years, the potential of regionalism; for now, the agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union Member States and Vietnam, that took effect in 2016, can be recognized as one such achievement. Nevertheless, with the EAEU becoming more active internationally, 2017 may become the year of the EAEU’s breakthrough towards a more diversified system of trade alliances; here the Eurasian Economic Union’s negotiations with such countries as South Korea, Singapore and Israel will be of key importance.
    Keywords: Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy
    JEL: E17 E52 E66 O11
    Date: 2017–01–17
  14. By: Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas
    Abstract: We analyze the evolution of fast emerging economies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) countries, by assessing growth determinants throughout the conditional distributions of the growth rate and real GDP output for the period 2001-2011. An instrumenal variable (IV) quantile regression approach is complemented with Two-Stage-Least Squares and IV Least Absolute Deviations. We find that the highest rates of growth of real GDP per head, among the nine countries of this study, corresponded to China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Turkey, but the highest increases in real GDP per capita corresponded, in descending order, to Turkey China, Brazil, South Africa and India. This study analyzes the impacts of several indicators on the increase of the rate of growth of real GDP and on the logarithm of the real GDP. We analyze several limitations of the methodology, related with the selection of the explained and the explanatory variables, the effect of missing variables, and the particular problems of some indicators. Our results show that Net Foreign Direct Investment, Natural Resources, and Political Stability have a positive and significant impact on the rate of growth of real GDP or on real GDP.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Emerging countries; Quantile regression
    JEL: C52 F21 F23 O40 O50
    Date: 2018–01
  15. By: Chatellier, Vincent
    Abstract: The increase in beef consumption in several Asian countries is helping to strengthen competitive games between the world's leading beef exporters, including Australia, India, Brazil and the United States. The main importers of beef and veal, including the United States, China (with Hong-Kong), Japan and Russia, have some differentiated trajectories according to changes in domestic demand for beef and veal, sanitary conditions in supplier countries and sometimes geopolitical issues. The European Union, which is experiencing both a decline in its production and consumption of beef, is not a major player in international trade in this sector. Domestic demand is largely satisfied by European products and significant flows of live cattle and beef take place between Member States. Using the available customs databases both on a global scale (Comtrade and Baci) and the European Union (Comext), this article proposes an analysis on the evolution of the productive and commercial situation of the main players in the beef cattle sector for the period 2000 to 2015.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–07–03
  16. By: Farquharson, Bob; Ramilan, Thiagarajah; Thar, So Pyay; Than, Shwe Mar; Aung, Nay Myo
    Abstract: The underperformance of cereal crops in Myanmar is closely related to inadequate supply of nutrients, particularly nitrogen (N). Although other crop management practices can limit crop yields, management of nutrients for crop production is an important contemporary issue. Myanmar rice growers have changed from being mainly subsistence to semi-subsistence, and there are also good prospects for increasing rice exports. Therefore there are incentives to improve rice yields and profits. Similarly for maize, as a higher value crop, there is a strong incentive to improve production and profits. But smallholder options to increase crop fertility must be considered in the social and economic context of their farming systems and village livelihoods. With small farm sizes, indebtedness, potentially high borrowing costs, and aversion to risk, their personal perspectives must be identified, discussed and incorporated into development activities. The decision to use more fertiliser is an investment with potential benefits and costs, which must be considered in the family and village contexts in which the decision is made. Smallholder personal (subjective) beliefs about crop yield improvements from added fertiliser are important in considering such decisions. An economic framework is available for evaluating such decisions (marginal analysis of returns from incremental N applications with a high target rate of investment return), which can be used in conjunction with field demonstrations of crop yield responses to fertiliser. But further study of social aspects such as understanding smallholder perspectives, motivations and limits to action will be undertaken in conjunction with agronomic and economic assessments.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–02–07
  17. By: Yuecai Han; Chunyang Liu
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of Asian option prices in the worst case scenario under an uncertain volatility model. We give a procedure to approximate the Asian option prices with a small volatility interval. By imposing additional conditions on the boundary condition and cutting the obtained Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equation into two Black-Scholes-like equations, we obtain an approximation method to solve the fully nonlinear PDE.
    Date: 2018–08
  18. By: In Hwan Jo (National University of Singapore); Tatsuro Senga (Queen Mary University of London)
    Abstract: Government policies that attempt to alleviate credit constraints faced by small and young firms are widely adopted across countries. We study the aggregate impact of such targeted credit subsidies in a heterogeneous firm model with collateral constraints and endogenous entry and exit. A defining feature of our model is a non-Gaussian process of firm-level productivity, which allows us to capture the skewed firm size distribution seen in the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS). We compare the welfare and aggregate productivity implications of our non-Gaussian process to those of a standard AR(1) process. While credit subsidies resolve misallocation of resources and enhance aggregate productivity, increased factor prices, in equilibrium, reduce the number of firms in production, which in turn depresses aggregate productivity. We show that the latter indirect general equilibrium effects dominate the former direct productivity gains in a model with the standard AR(1) process, as compared to our non-Gaussian process, under which both welfare and aggregate productivity increase by subsidy policies. ​
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Athukorala, Prema-chandra (Australian National University); Narayanan, Suresh (Universiti Sains Malaysia)
    Abstract: This paper examines prerequisites for a successful interstate economic corridor development program in a country with a federal system of government through an in-depth study of the design, implementation, and the developmental impact of the Northern Corridor Economic Region (NCER) in Malaysia that encompasses the states of Penang, Kedah, Perak, and Perlis. The analysis suggests that the NCER has the potential to leverage on the core strengths of the state of Penang—global connectivity, mature business ecosystem with a strong presence of multinational enterprises, and sizable talent pool—in order to redress the widening interregional and urban–rural development divide. While it is too early to assess the full outcome of NCER initiative, a potential problem looms in the future. The Northern Corridor Implementing Authority (NCIA), charged with implementing projects in the NCER, is structured with no formal positions allotted to planning officials from the member states. This will not pose problems in implementing projects that are in broad alignment with the interest of the states. Conflicts will arise, however, when state and NCIA views on projects differ. This potential problem can be overcome by restructuring the NCIA to allow for the formal inclusion of planning representatives from member states.
    Keywords: economic corridor; Malaysia; regional development
    JEL: O18 O21 O53
    Date: 2017–12–01
  20. By: Beckman, Jayson; Dyck, John; Heerman, Kari
    Abstract: Global agricultural trade, about $1 trillion in 2014, has been rising about 3.6 percent per year for the last two decades, facilitated by technological change and productivity gains, as well as trade liberalization. In addition, trade patterns have shifted and trade policy has evolved. The largest importers and exporters of agricultural products are largely unchanged over the last 20 years, but five countries—Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, and China—account for much of the increase in trade. The landscape of policies affecting trade is increasingly complex, and agricultural trade is facing obstacles that may restrict future growth. Despite trade rules such as in the World Trade Organization, countries impose trade barriers. High tariffs are permitted for many products in many countries. Rising domestic support in some countries could undermine a level playing field for agricultural trade. Moreover, sanitary and phytosanitary barriers and other technical barriers to trade are growing, with disagreements about the scientific basis for rejecting products becoming particularly contentious. This report surveys 20 years (1995-2014) of trends in world agricultural trade (1995-2016 for some measures of U.S. agricultural trade) and summarizes key policy issues that will confront decision makers and shape agricultural trade in the coming years.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–11–13
  21. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This paper examines how the Chinese economy has been involved in global value chains from the perspective of domestic value creation, by using the OECD value-added-trade data (OECD TiVA database). This study contributes to the existing literature by decomposing the domestic value creation into a direct effect from export industries and an indirect effect from the other supporting industries. The empirical estimation first identified the “smile curve” in the “indirect” domestic value creation in total manufactures as the average pattern of the Asian GVCs development paths, in which the domestic value share to exports declines at the early development stage and regains itself at the later stage with the turning point being at 1,830 US dollars as per capita GDP. Then the analysis confirmed the position of Chinese economy, which has already passed the Asian average turning point and has entered the phase of regaining the domestic value share to exports. Finally, the analysis found that the domestic value creation in China has originated from the development of supporting industries, in particular, service industries, which might reflect the progress in basic infrastructure there.
    Keywords: Domestic value creation, Global value chains, China, Value-added-trade data, Manufactures, Supporting industries
    JEL: F14 L60 O53
    Date: 2018–08
  22. By: Calza, Elisa (UNU-MERIT); Goedhuys, Micheline (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: Using two waves of the Mirco, Small and Medium sized Enterprises (MSMEs) survey of Vietnamese manufacturing firms, this paper first explores what drives firms' decision to have a domestically recognized certificate, taking into account a rich number of factors related to the cost and expected benefits of certification as well as institutional factors. It further explores the presence of a positive and significant effect of domestic certificates on firm growth, these serving as signaling devices for desirable attributes under information asymmetry and thus leading to an increase in legitimacy and reputation. Evidence is indeed found for a signaling effect of certification, this being stronger for more recently adopted certificates, for advertising firms and for women entrepreneurs.
    Keywords: Certification, Firm growth, Transaction costs, Signaling Emerging economies, Viet Nam
    JEL: D22 D23 L25 O12
    Date: 2018–06–21
  23. By: Healey, Madaline
    Abstract: Agriculture employs over 70% of the workforce in Laos, one of the least developed countries in the world, and provides approximately 27% of total GDP. Intensifying vegetable production will increase plant pest and disease pressure and significant on-farm losses for the majority of subsistence and smallholder cooperative farmers. Intensification is likely to happen if Laos is to meet the World Trade Organization Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the ‘SPS Agreement’) requirements for exports to the ASEAN economic community and international markets. This will be a major challenge in the horticultural production areas of Savannakhet and the Bolaven Plateau because there is little capacity in crop health there to support farmers. In collaboration with Provincial Government authorities and the Australian Government volunteer program (AVID) managed by Scope Global, the Crawford Fund has committed to a long-term program to build capacity in crop health, biosecurity and food safety in Laos since 2009. Engaging volunteer early-career scientists to deliver insect and disease diagnostics training has increased the capacity of local counterparts to provide crop protection advice. Placements provide context-specific training and longer-term sustainability through gradual training, while also giving volunteers an opportunity to engage in a career in international agricultural development. Crawford e-mentors support volunteers in five countries with advice and pro-bono laboratory services – a unique feature of the program. Crop management strategies have already been implemented on key farms with the help of local staff, leading to reduced crop loss and increased yields. This long-term commitment will contribute to rural economic development of the smallholder farm sector in Laos, and facilitate trade in rural commodities.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Development
    Date: 2016–08–29
  24. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Technical Assistance Report – Residential Property Price Statistics Capacity Development Mission
  25. By: Herrero, Mario
    Abstract: Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve understanding of food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. We used existing spatially-explicit global datasets to estimate the production levels of crops, livestock, and aquaculture and fish products. We also estimated the production of vitamin A, vitamin B12, folate, iron, zinc, calcium, calories and protein. Furthermore, we estimated the relative contribution of farms of different sizes to the production of different agricultural commodities and associated nutrients, as well as how the diversity of food production, based on the number of different products grown per geographic pixel and distribution of products within this pixel (Shannon diversity index [H]), changes with different farm sizes. Globally, small and medium farms (≤50 ha) produce 51–77% of nearly all commodities and nutrients examined here. However, important regional differences exist. Large farms (>50 ha) dominate production in North America, South America, and Australia and New Zealand. By contrast, small farms (≤20 ha) produce more than 75% of most food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, south-east Asia, south Asia and China. The majority of vegetables (81%), roots and tubers (72%), pulses (67%), fruits (66%), fish and livestock products (60%) and cereals (56%) are produced in diverse landscapes (H>1·5). Our results show that farm size and diversity of agricultural production vary substantially across regions and are key structural determinants of food and nutrient production that need to be considered in plans to meet social, economic and environmental targets. At the global level, both small and large farms have key roles in food and nutrition security. This analysis is crucial to design interventions that might be appropriately targeted to promote healthy diets and ecosystems in the face of population growth, urbanisation and climate change.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession
    Date: 2017–08–08
  26. By: Shrestha, Rashesh; Coxhead, Ian
    Abstract: In Indonesia, an export boom and sustained, rapid GDP growth in the decade after 2000 was accompanied by real earnings that were flat on average, and even declining for many workers. Conventional models of growth and trade predict that labor productivity rises as an economy develops; that this should not be observed during a period of high GDP growth is a puzzle that merits careful investigation. In this paper we explore these seemingly paradoxical trends using several waves of a panel of individual employment data. Economic growth is rarely balanced in a sectoral sense, and the nature of the structural change experienced by Indonesia is also strongly associated with lower competitiveness in sectors where formal employment rates are high, causing some degree of involuntary labor movement from formal to informal modes of employment. We explore this econometrically and find that the earnings of workers displaced from formal to informal jobs are significantly lower relative to workers who remain in the formal market. The fact of this displacement, and its implications for individual earnings, undercuts conventional thinking about the welfare gains from a sustained growth experience. Our findings add, perhaps for the first time, a developing-country dimension to the existing job displacement literature. They also shed some light on the causes of Indonesia's unprecedented increase in inequality during the same growth epoch.
    Keywords: Displacement, Formal, Informal, Earnings, Indonesia
    JEL: E24 F16 J23 J63 O17
    Date: 2018–08
  27. By: Palmer, Michael; Williams, Jenny
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of a law protecting and promoting the employment rights of disabled people in a developing country setting. Using data from the Cambodian Socioeconomic Survey and a di�fference-in-diff�erence design, we �find that employment of the disabled fell by around 9 percentage points in the four years following the introduction of the disability law. The reduction in employment is greater for women than men and is concentrated amongst employees, with the self-employment rate unaff�ected by the policy change. Several mechanisms via which the introduction of the law reduced employment of the disabled are explored. We �find that the most plausible mechanism is that employers reduce their demand for disabled labor in order to avoid the cost of workplace accommodations for disabled workers. We also �find that families respond to the reduced employment of their disabled members by providing unpaid work and roles within the family home, and by providing income transfers to non-resident disabled family members.
    Keywords: disability law; employment; di�erence-indi�erence design; developing country
    JEL: C21 I18 J21 K31
    Date: 2017–07–03
  28. By: Wang, Limin (World Bank); Kanji, Shireen (University of Birmingham); Jha, Shikha (Asian Development Bank); Meurs, Mieke E. (American University)
    Abstract: Global supply chain (GSC) trade has been a driving force underlying economic transformation, urbanization, and social change in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Female migrants account for a large share of the labor force in the country’s GSC production base. Using province-level panel data, this study employs regression analysis to examine how the country’s rapid integration into the supply chain has affected women’s welfare outcomes captured by occupational status. The analysis shows mixed results. On the one hand, global integration through trade expansion improved the concentration of men and women equally in professional and skilled occupations and in management positions. On the other hand, female employment in manufacturing for GSC trade increased faster than male employment. This trend decreased in turn the male–female sex ratio among those aged 0–4 years. This finding is consistent with other studies on the PRC that confirm the beneficial effect of a relative rise in women’s income in reducing the sex imbalance. Gender-specific policies should support female migrants in moving up the job ladder in GSC trade through higher education and skills training for professional and leadership positions. This should be complemented with incentives for the private sector—the biggest source of employment in the PRC—to promote gender equality by harnessing the advancement in technology and opportunities offered by the rapid growth of GSC trade.
    Keywords: global supply chain; People’s Republic of China; trade; women
    JEL: F16 J16
    Date: 2017–07–01
  29. By: Abiad, Abdul (Asian Development Bank); Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita (University of the Philippines); Sy, Andrea Loren (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: We examine the evolution of infrastructure, and the impact of infrastructure investment, in middleincome countries (MICs). We document how different types of infrastructure stocks, as well as infrastructure investment, vary with the level of development and growth performance. We then use the two-stage approach of Corsetti, Meier, and Müller (2012) to identify exogenous public investment shocks and investigate the macroeconomic impact of these shocks. We find that the provision of infrastructure varies across development stages; there is a focus on basic infrastructure, such as transport, water, and sanitation, during early stages, and an emphasis on “advanced” infrastructure, such as power and especially information and communication technology, in later stages. Better-performing MICs tend to invest more in infrastructure. They also have more information and communication technology infrastructure. Finally, we find a more significant and sustained impact of exogenous public investment shocks on output in MICs than in low-income countries.
    Keywords: economic development; infrastructure; middle income
    JEL: H54 O18 O40 Q40
    Date: 2017–08–30
  30. By: Ferlito, Carmelo
    Abstract: Economic reality shows us that business fluctuations are everywhere and the crisis that emerged in the Western world in 2007 is just the latest and most evident manifestation of such dynamics. As mentioned in Ferlito (2016a, pp. 202-203), which develops the vision brought out in Ferlito (2014a), capitalism without fluctuations does not exist. I expressed the idea that business cycles are unavoidable by developing the doctrine of the natural cycle (see in particular Ferlito 2016b, Chapter 3). I will now summarize that framework in order to describe the evolution of the property market in the last decade. Section 2 presents the theory of the natural cycle, which will be used in section 3 for the analysis of the Malaysian property market over the past decade. According to such framework, business cycles are originated from positive profit expectations and each expansionary wave is followed by a secondary wave, which can be called imitative-speculative, usually supported by credit expansion. Such an evolution can be observed in the Malaysian property market from 1997, while today the declining movement is already initiated. In section 4, I focus on certain disproportionalities in the housing industry, arguing that the investor focus on the high-end segment was not unjustified and that government action is crowding out private constructors from the affordable housing segment. In section 5, I present some free market-oriented policy suggestions, aiming to create the conditions to limit the insurgence of future crises, to face the coming property crisis, and to revive the affordable housing market. Section 6 concludes.
    Keywords: Property market,Malaysia
    JEL: E32
    Date: 2018
  31. By: Higgins, Stuart
    Abstract: This presentation explores the deployment of mobile acquired data (MAD) via tablet-based apps in research for development initiatives. It assesses pros, cons and unexpected consequences in the field, for both researchers and smallholder farmers, using the ACIARfunded, University of Queensland Vanuatu Beef Project as a case study. In 2015, ACIAR sought to understand the potential benefits – intended and unintended – that mobile acquired data (apps on tablets) might deliver to its funded projects. In pursuit of this, AgImpact (an R4D company) was commissioned to design and manage a small research activity which reviewed nearly 20 ‘off the shelf’ apps, then conducted three weeks of field testing in Indonesia surveying beef producers, in partnership with the University of Udayana. The researchers concluded that the use of apps for in-field research has significant potential to improve relationships between researchers and smallholder farmers by improving two-way information exchange in near real time. Some of the key findings were: (i) survey times were reduced by approximately 53%; (ii) 93% of farmers found the use of apps informative when research results were provided to them in near real time; (iii) 73% of farmers found the overall survey experience using apps to be positive. By mid-2016, the research activity had gained momentum and evolved into the ACIAR Mobile Acquired Data (MAD) research series, now involving nine ACIAR projects adopting apps in research for the first time. An exemplar project led by the University of Queensland, ‘Increasing the productivity and market options of smallholder beef cattle farmers in Vanuatu’, designed and built apps featuring auto-calculation functions, look-up tables and case histories, to track changes in cattle production performance and cattle prices for individual animals in real time.
    Keywords: Livestock Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2017–08–08
  32. By: Dejanir Silva (UIUC); Robert Townsend (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: We study the risk-taking behavior of entrepreneurs in an environment with two main ingredients: finite lives and uninsurable idiosyncratic risk on the business. We show that the fraction of wealth invested in the business depends on the idiosyncratic risk premium and that it declines substantially over the life cycle. The consumption-wealth ratio is U-shaped over the life cycle. We solve for the wealth distribution both across and within age groups. We show that the variance of wealth conditional on age has an inverted-U shape, initially increasing with age and eventually declining. We find support for these predictions in the data using a survey of entrepreneurial activity in Thailand. We also consider the impact of financial development and demographic transitions on asset prices, economic activity, and inequality. We show that an increase in the fraction of idiosyncratic risk entrepreneurs can insure or a decline in population growth will lead to a reduction in the idiosyncratic risk premium, an increase in the capital stock of the economy, and a decline in inequality.
    Date: 2018
  33. By: Sui-Jade Ho (Central Bank of Malaysia); Dimitrije Ruzic (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: Aggregate productivity suffers when workers and machines are not matched with their most productive uses. This paper builds a model that features industry-specific markups, industry-specific returns to scale, and establishment-specific distortions, and uses it to measure the extent of this misallocation in the economy. Applying the model to restricted U.S. census microdata on the manufacturing sector suggests that misallocation declined by 13% between 1982 and 2007. The jointly estimated markup and returns to scale parameters vary substantially across industries. Furthermore, while the average markup has been relatively constant, the average returns to scale declined over this period. The finding of declining misallocation starkly contrasts the 29% increase implied by the widely used Hsieh & Klenow (2009) model, which assumes that all establishments charge the same markup and have constant returns to scale. Accounting for the variation in markups and returns to scale leads to the divergence of misallocation estimates in this paper from those implied by the Hsieh-Klenow model.
    Date: 2018
  34. By: Chaoran Chen (National University of Singapore); Diego Restuccia (University of Toronto); Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis (MOVE-UAB and Barcelona GSE)
    Abstract: We assess the role of land markets on factor misallocation in Ethiopia—where land is owned by the state—by exploiting policy-driven variation in land rentals across time and space arising from a recent land certification reform. Our main finding from detailed micro data is that land rentals significantly reduce misallocation and increase agricultural productivity. These effects are nonlinear across farms—impacting more those farms farther away from their efficient operational scale. The effect of land rentals on productivity is 70 percent larger when controlling for non-market rentals—those with a pre-harvest rental rate of zero. Land rentals significantly increase the adoption of new technologies, especially fertilizer use.
    Date: 2018

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