nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒07‒30
sixteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Mobile Phones and Financial Access: Evidence from the Finscope Surveys of Selected Asian Countries By Lay, Sok Heng
  2. The nexus between peace and sustainable development in Asia-Pacific countries with special needs By Nyingtob Pema Norbu
  3. Segmentation and informality in Vietnam: A survey of the literature By Jean-Pierre Cling; Mireille Razafindrakoto; François Roubaud
  4. Drivers of growth in fast emerging economies: A dynamic instrumental quantile approach to real output and its rates of growth in BRICS and mint countries, 2001-2011 By Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
  5. Le droit à l'énergie : dangereuse chimère ou juste exigence ? By Minh Ha-Duong
  6. Explanatory factors behind formalizing non-farm household businesses in Vietnam By Jean-Pierre Cling; Mireille Razafindrakoto; François Roubaud
  7. Systemic Crisis and Growth Revisited: Has the Global Financial Crisis Marked a New Era? By Sven Steinkamp; Frank Westermann
  8. Mobilize finance for social protection in ageing societies By Zhenqian Huang; Vanessa Steinmayer
  9. Container Port Hierarchy and Connectivity based on Network Analysis By Nikola Kutin; Marie-Sabine Saget; Thomas Vallée
  10. Highly skilled migration and the internationalization of knowledge By Claudia Noumedem Temgoua
  11. Determination of Different Types of Fixed Effects in Three-Dimensional Panels By Lu, Xun; Miao, Ke; Su, Liangjun
  12. Potential of financial technology in East and North-East Asia By Dorothea Lazaro; Nobuko Kajiura
  13. Financing for peace in countries with special needs By Andrzej Bolesta; Nyingtob Pema Norbu; Yusuke Tateno
  14. Seaweed as snack food - What target consumers ? IDEALG project By Morgane Marchand; Charline Comparini; Marie Lesueur
  15. Enhancing the policy environment for public-private partnerships By Chandan Sharma; Vatcharin Sirimaneetham
  16. The Persistent Effect of Initial Success: Evidence from Venture Capital By Ramana Nanda; Sampsa Samila; Olav Sorenson

  1. By: Lay, Sok Heng
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of mobile phones on the use of formal banking services in some Asian countries. Using the FinScope Surveys of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal, and Thailand conducted between 2012 and 2015, the paper applies a probit model to both cross-sectional and pooled data set. The results consistently suggest that having a mobile phone increases the probability of having access to financial services. The findings also highlight the importance of education which increases the likelihood of being formally banked, while distance or time to banking infrastructure is likely to remain a significant barrier for people to access to financial services for all countries. Other factors associated with the likelihood of changes in the levels of access to financial services vary widely from country to country.
    Keywords: financial access, probit model, mobile financial service, financial institutions
    JEL: C35 G20 O16 O30
    Date: 2018–05–30
  2. By: Nyingtob Pema Norbu (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: While the international community has been largely successful in averting interstate conflicts since the end of the World War II and the Cold War, the rise in intrastate conflicts is disconcerting. Conflicts undermine human development, weaken social cohesion and institutional mechanisms, thereby impeding sustainable development. The Institute for Economics and Peace estimated that in 2016 the cost of violence containment for Afghanistan and Myanmar reached a staggering 52.1% and 8.4% of GDP, respectively.2 In terms of fatalities, around 167,000 people lost their lives to conflict in 2015. Conflicts "reflect not just a problem for development, but a failure of development"..
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Jean-Pierre Cling (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mireille Razafindrakoto (LEDa - Université Paris Dauphine (Paris 9)); François Roubaud (LEDa - Université Paris Dauphine (Paris 9))
    Abstract: Labour market segmentation is usually defined as the division of the labour markets into separate submarkets or segments, distinguished by different characteristics and behavioural rules (incomes, contracts, etc.). The economic debate on the segmentation issue has been focusing in developed countries, and especially in Europe, on contractual segmentation and dualism. However, in developing countries such as Vietnam which is the focus of this study, wage work is marginal and the approach to labour market segmentation is necessarily slightly different. Indeed, most workers are engaged in the informal economy and many of them are self-employed in their own household business. Starting with an analysis of the main characteristics of the national labour market, this paper presents a survey of the literature on informality and labour market segmentation in Vietnam (section 2). Section 3 describes the institutional background related to firm registration and social protection in Vietnam, and analyses the reasons for informality in relationship with the institutional framework. Section 4 describes the reforms being put in place and employment strategies related to the informal economy. Policy recommendations are proposed in the last section.
    Abstract: La segmentation sur le marché du travail est usuellement définie comme la coexistence de deux segments ou secteurs qui se distinguent par leurs caractéristiques et les comportements qui y prévalent (niveau de revenus, contrats, etc.). Le débat économique sur la segmentation s'est focalisé dans les pays développés, et en particulier en Europe, sur le dualisme résultant des contrats. Cependant, dans les pays en développement comme le Vietnam, les emplois salariés étant marginaux, la segmentation sur le marché du travail doit nécessairement être appréhendée de manière différente. La majorité des emplois relève de l'économie informelle et une grande partie est constituée d'auto-emploi dans des entreprises individuelles. Partant d'une analyse des principales caractéristiques du marché du travail national, ce document présente ensuite une revue de la littérature sur l'informalité et la segmentation sur le marché du travail au Vietnam (section 2). La section 3 décrit le cadre institutionnel en matière d'enregistrement et de protection sociale au Vietnam, et analyse les raisons de l'informalité. La section 4 examine les réformes qui ont été mises en place et les stratégies en termes d'emploi touchant l'économie informelle. Enfin, des recommandations politiques sont proposées dans la dernière section.
    Keywords: segmentation,Labour market,Informality,Vietnam,Informel,marché du travail
    Date: 2017–12–01
  4. By: Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
    Abstract: We analyze the evolution of fast emerging economies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) countries, by assessing growth determinants throughout the conditional distributions of the growth rate and real GDP output for the period 2001-2011. An instrumenal variable (IV) quantile regression approach is complemented with Two-Stage-Least Squares and IV Least Absolute Deviations. We find that the highest rates of growth of real GDP per head, among the nine countries of this study, corresponded to China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Turkey, but the highest increases in real GDP per capita corresponded, in descending order, to Turkey China, Brazil, South Africa and India. This study analyzes the impacts of several indicators on the increase of the rate of growth of real GDP and on the logarithm of the real GDP. We analyze several limitations of the methodology, related with the selection of the explained and the explanatory variables, the effect of missing variables, and the particular problems of some indicators. Our results show that Net Foreign Direct Investment, Natural Resources, and Political Stability have a positive and significant impact on the rate of growth of real GDP or on real GDP
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Emerging countries; Quantile regression
    Date: 2018–04–26
  5. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)
    Abstract: Survivre au froid en hiver et au chaud en été sont des besoins humains essentiels, tout comme manger cuit dans un air intérieur libre de fumée. L'objectif de développement durable « Accès à une énergie propre et abordable pour tous » reconnaît ainsi un droit à l'énergie comme une juste exigence universelle. Mais le garantir au quotidien pour sept milliards de contemporains soulève des questions pratiques : Les pays en développement ont ils le droit d'utiliser les énergies fossiles comme l'ont fait les pays riches ? Comment définir et repérer les ménages en situation de précarité énergétique, et comment les aider ? Ce texte propose quelques réponses concrètes, qui s'appuient sur le cas d'un pays riche la France, et d'un pays à revenu intermédiaire le Vietnam.
    Date: 2018–01–25
  6. By: Jean-Pierre Cling (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mireille Razafindrakoto (LEDa - Université Paris Dauphine (Paris 9)); François Roubaud (LEDa - Université Paris Dauphine (Paris 9))
    Abstract: This article sets out to investigate the reasons why some household businesses decide to register and become formal (while others do not) in order to shed light on the origins of informality. We use qualitative as well as quantitative data on household businesses (HB) derived from first-hand representative surveys implemented in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city. The study reveals that although most of the informal businesses operate ‘illegally', this is more due to unclear registration legislation than the mark of a deliberate intention to evade the economic regulations.Among the different factors which influence the registration decisions, the reason for setting up the business appears to be a determining one: the more it is a real choice (businesses set up to be independent or to follow a family tradition) and the less a constraint (set up for lack of an job alternative), the more the HB is more inclined to be registered. Furthermore, the analysis highlights that incentives do prove decisive insofar as the probability of having a formal business is greater among HB heads who consider that registration provides at least partial protection from corruption. Besides, access to information, the market and large business orders also drive the informal entrepreneurs to register. These results stress the need for clarification of the legal framework as well as incentive policies in order to address the issue of informality.
    Abstract: Cet article se propose d'analyser les raisons pour lesquelles certaines unités de production (household businesses, HB) décident de s'enregistrer et de devenir formelles (et pourquoi d'autres ne le font pas) afin d'éclairer les origines de l'informalité. Nous mobilisons des données aussi bien quantitatives que qualitatives sur les HB, issues d'enquêtes représentatives et de première main conduite par nos soins à Hanoï et Ho Chi Minh ville. L'étude révèle que bien que la plupart des unités informelles opère "illégalement", ce trait procède plus d'une législation floue et méconnue que d'une volonté délibérée d'échapper aux régulations publiques. Parmi les différents facteurs qui jouent sur la décision de s'enregistrer, le motif qui a conduit à s'établir à son compte est déterminant : plus il s'agit d'un véritable choix (volonté d'échapper au salariat ou par tradition familiale) et moins il résulte d'une contrainte (manque d'alternative d'emploi), et plus le chef d'unité sera enclin à s'enregistrer. De plus, l'analyse met en évidence le rôle des incitations dans la probabilité de devenir formel. Ainsi, ceux qui considèrent que l'enregistrement protège (au moins partiellement) de la corruption sont plus nombreux à régulariser leur situation. Enfin, l'accès à l'information, aux marchés et aux commandes des grandes entreprises favorisent l'enregistrement. Ces résultats soulignent le besoin de clarification de la législation des entreprises ainsi que l'importance de politiques incitatives pour s'attaquer à la question de l'informalité.
    Keywords: Informal Sector,Vietnam,Registration,Corruption,Incentives
    Date: 2017–12–14
  7. By: Sven Steinkamp (Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, D-49069 Osnabrueck, Germany); Frank Westermann (Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, D-49069 Osnabrueck, Germany)
    Abstract: Occasional crises have been shown to be part of growth enhancing mechanism (see Rancière, Tornell and Westermann, 2008). In this paper, we document that neither the stereotypical case study of India vs. Thailand, nor the benchmark growth-regression in this earlier research support this result anymore when updating the sample by one decade that includes the Global Financial Crisis, 2007/8. We analyze the time-varying nature of this relationship in rolling regressions and an historical dataset. In the subset of countries with enforceability problems, we find that the link between occasional crisis, measured by the negative skewness of credit growth, and per-capita output growth still remains intact.
    Keywords: Long-Term Growth; Systemic Crisis; Financial Liberalization
    JEL: F34 O43 G01
    Date: 2018–05–29
  8. By: Zhenqian Huang (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Vanessa Steinmayer (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: The region is undergoing profound and rapid population changes. In 2017, an estimated 572 million persons aged 60 years or older lived in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 60% of the world’s older population. The number is predicted to increase to 1.3 billion in 2050, which means that one out of four persons in the region will be aged 60 years or above. Population ageing affects sustainable development in all its dimensions. Addressing population ageing is aligned with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development particularly in ending poverty, ensuring healthy lives and promote well-being, achieving gender equality, and promoting sustained and inclusive economic growth. Countries have to prepare early with adequate social policies and financial resources to address the challenges of population ageing. Traditionally, families support their ageing parents, both financially and by providing care. However, with smaller families, there will be fewer family members in working age to shoulder this responsibility. In this context, mobilizing resources to finance social protection programmes are imperative to provide security of income and well-being during old age. There is increasing political will to provide social protection to older persons, reflected by an increasing number of countries providing social pensions.2 However, in many cases, policies focus on some aspects of population ageing only.
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Nikola Kutin (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes, National University of Management); Marie-Sabine Saget (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes); Thomas Vallée (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes)
    Abstract: This study aims to analyze port hierarchy between 153 container ports. For this purpose, a network analysis was conducted. Particular attention was paid to 68 ports from the ASEAN+31 community. We have created five director weighted networks at both port and country levels. Results reveal that the prevailing structure of the global maritime network is hub and spoke, and that the port rankings change according to different centrality measures. Regarding the intra-ASEAN+3 connectivity, ASEAN member states form a cluster of interconnected ports. A comparative analysis shows that both the Export and Maritime connectivity networks have similar patterns, which indicates that the containerized trade within ASEAN+3 has the same features as the intra-regional exports.
    Keywords: Network,ASEAN,Trade,Shipping,Connectivity,Centrality
    Date: 2018–07–03
  10. By: Claudia Noumedem Temgoua
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of Chinese and Indian highly skilled diaspora in the internationalization of knowledge networks, for a sample of OECD destination countries. We mainly focus on two types of knowledge networks: co-inventorship and co-authorship. We jointly exploit country-level data on highly skilled migration and information on co-authorship and co-inventorship from publication and patent data. Based on a gravity model regression analysis, we find that OECD country pairs hosting sizeable portions of the Indian or Chinese highly skilled diasporas tend to collaborate more on publications and patents, after controlling for other migration trends. When extending the analysis to other countries, we find similar results for Vietnam, Pakistan and Iran.
    Keywords: migration, highly skilled, publications, R&D cooperation, diffusion, patent
    JEL: C8 F22 J61 O31 O33
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Lu, Xun (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Miao, Ke (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Su, Liangjun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a jackknife method to determine the type of fixed effects in three-dimensional panel data models. We show that with probability approaching 1, the method can select the correct type of fixed effects in the presence of only weak serial or cross-sectional dependence among the error terms. In the presence of strong serial correlation, we propose a modified jackknife method and justify its selection consistency. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the excellent finite sample performance of our method. Applications to two datasets in macroeconomics and international trade reveal the usefulness of our method.
    Keywords: Consistency; Cross-validation; Fixed effect; Individual effect; Jackknife; Three-dimensional panel.
    JEL: C23 C33 C51 C52 F17 F47
    Date: 2018–04–23
  12. By: Dorothea Lazaro (Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Nobuko Kajiura (Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: FinTech can be broadly defined as the application of information technology (IT) to the financial sector. Its importance is crucial due to the role of the financial sector in channelling savings towards sustainable investments, as it can make them more efficient by circumventing inefficient credit allocation systems that tend to favour State-owned enterprises over innovative MSMEs. Indeed, the rise of FinTech has permeated several aspects of economic dimensions, promoting what is known as the alternative economy: an economic structure that is separate from, and operates largely independently of, the traditional economy. Among many examples of the alternative economy, two well-known global ones are Uber (transport services) and Airbnb (accommodation services).
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Andrzej Bolesta (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Nyingtob Pema Norbu (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific); Yusuke Tateno (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: The Index for Risk Management1 (INFORM) reveals that countries with special needs - least developed countries in particular - are susceptible to conflict due to: a. High levels of socio-economic vulnerabilities such as multidimensional poverty, inequality, vulnerable people and aid dependence; and b. Weak coping capacities as captured through their institutional and infrastructure deficits. The multidimensionality of conflict and its interdependence with sustainable development suggest that sustaining peace essentially requires the pursuit of mutually reinforcing holistic development and peaceful outcomes. Creating and sustaining a peaceful environment that addresses these structural ‘risk factors’ of conflict is thus a long-term pursuit that can only be sustained by ensuring a stable source of financing.
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Morgane Marchand (Pôle halieutique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST); Charline Comparini (AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Pôle halieutique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST); Marie Lesueur (AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Pôle halieutique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST)
    Abstract: The surveys conducted by AGROCAMPUS OUEST as part of the Idealg project iden"fied consumers interested in seaweed as snack food, work that resulted in the authors asking the following ques"on: " Are seaweed food products suited to French ea)ng habits? ". Diagram summing up the methods used Seaweed snacks account for a fairly small part of the range of non-Asian style seaweed food products available although they poten"ally meet the ea"ng requirements of many consumers who have made a habit of ea)ng between meals, outside their homes but who also want to eat healthy, natural and local food. Who are these poten"al consumers of seaweed snacks and what products are currently available? What measures could be taken to encourage consumers to eat seaweed? Context In Asia, seaweed is historically a tradi"onal source of food whereas in France, seaweed consump"on is re-la"vely limited and only started to gain momentum in the 2000s. French seaweed producers and processors have developed a wide range of products suited to French-style cuisine and containing seaweed in all its various forms. In France, food intake is tradi"onally divided in three daily meals. Some consumers, however, choose to move away from this ea)ng pa2ern, with repercussions on breakfast, which they may skip, or on lunch, which will merely consist of a bite to eat. Thus about one third of French consumers eat between tradi"o-nal main meals, a3ernoon snack and aperi"f excluded. Snack food is food that can be eaten with the fingers at any)me and/or anywhere.
    Date: 2017
  15. By: Chandan Sharma (Associate Professor, Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, India); Vatcharin Sirimaneetham (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)
    Abstract: Public-private partnerships are generally defined as a contractual agreement between a public agency and a private entity on a long-term project aimed at providing a public service and infrastructure.1 Examples of public services delivered through PPP are prison services and public parks, while infrastructure can refer to both economic infrastructure, such as electricity and mobile phone networks, and social infrastructure, such as public schools and hospitals. In general, the private entity assumes a large part of the financial and operational risks in a project, while the income could be in the form of user fees of the public service or infrastructure provided. An example is a consortium of private companies that build, operate and maintain a toll road in exchange for toll charges.
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Ramana Nanda (Harvard Business School, Entrepreneurial Management Unit); Sampsa Samila (National University of Singapore); Olav Sorenson (Yale School of Management)
    Abstract: We use investment-level data to study performance persistence in venture capital (VC). Consistent with prior studies, we find that each additional IPO among a VC firm's first ten investments predicts as much as an 8% higher IPO rate on its subsequent investments, though this effect erodes with time. In exploring its sources, we document several additional facts: successful outcomes stem in large part from investing in the right places at the right times; VC firms do not persist in their ability to choose the right places and times to invest; but early success does lead to investing in later rounds and in larger syndicates. This pattern of results seems most consistent with the idea that initial success improves access to deal flow. That preferential access raises the quality of subsequent investments, perpetuating performance differences in initial investments.
    Keywords: venture capital, performance, monitoring, selection
    JEL: G24 M13
    Date: 2017–01

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