|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Shirai, Sayuri (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sugandi, Eric (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the developments of cross-border portfolio assets and liabilities in Asia and the Pacific region over the period 2001–2017. Rapid increases in both portfolio foreign assets and liabilities have taken place particularly after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. These cross-border portfolio investments have the following characteristics. First, equity has been a dominant source of foreign liabilities notwithstanding efforts to develop bond markets in the region. One exception is Australia, where foreign liabilities have been largely in the form of debt securities. Limited capital inflows to debt securities issued by emerging Asia may be attributable to the early stages of bond market development. Second, in contrast, debt securities have remained dominant as foreign assets held by the region. This mostly reflects Japan’s preference toward debt securities. Other Asian and Pacific economies have invested more heavily in foreign equity. Third, the region’s assets and liabilities linkages have remained overwhelmingly strengthened against the United States and Europe. Nonetheless, the post-crisis period has witnessed greater financial integration within the region. The intraregional linkages have been deepest between Hong Kong, China and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), where the former has become a major financier of equity issued by the latter. Singapore increasingly plays a role as an equity investor toward the PRC, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and other ASEAN economies. Albeit from the low level, the intra-ASEAN integration has been noticeable. Fourth, Japan with the largest abundant domestic capital has remained predominantly exposed to the United States and Europe. Within the region, debt securities issued by Australia have increasingly attracted Japan’s capital. To conclude, intraregional financial integration has risen at the center of the PRC with growing linkages with Hong Kong, China and Singapore. |
| Keywords: | portfolio investment; financial market integration; Asia and the Pacific |
| JEL: | F36 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0841&r=sea |
| By: | Sta. Romana, Leonardo L. |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the issue of sustainability reporting by corporations, and the framework(s) and guidelines used in the preparation of those annual reports. It takes as its starting point the UN Sustainable Development Goal 12: “Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns”, with its Target 12.6: “Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle”. And it is the Indicator 12.6.1: “Number of companies publishing sustainability reports” that provides the inspiration for the idea for doing this study. The study provides, firstly, a brief background on the group responsible for the sustainability reporting framework widely used by companies, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). This is followed with another short background on a second, though newer, group with another framework, the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC). The study presents - to the best of the author's knowledge - the first comparative study of corporate sustainability reports (and the frameworks used) across ten Emerging Asian economies. It proceeds to this core empirical contribution of the paper by explaining the process how the corporations in Emerging Asia were selected for inclusion in the study. It notes that the companies and the economies of origin were not picked directly for inclusion. The first step was to find reputable corporate sustainability rankings and ratings. Seven information sources yielded a list of 150 companies from ten Emerging Asian economies. These economies are: China, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore. It then presents the findings from a survey of the sustainability reports of the 150 corporations. Across the entire sample, almost 90 percent cite the use of the GRI guidelines. In three economies with more than just a handful of companies in the sample -- South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand -- all of their companies cite the GRI framework. However, the picture is not as one-sided in India, where less than half cite the GRI. |
| Keywords: | Environmental sustainability,Corporate social responsibility (CSR),Environmental economics,Sustainable development,Sustainable development goals (SDGs),Sustainable reporting,Environment and development,Emerging Asia,Environmental, social and governance (ESG),Global Reporting Initiative (GRI),International Reporting Council (IIRC),Integrated Reporting,China,Hong Kong,India,South Korea,Taiwan,Thailand,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore |
| JEL: | D62 M2 O44 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:179675&r=sea |
| By: | Eric D. , Ramstetter |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) played in Vietnamese firm exports during 2010-2013. Consistent with patterns observed in commodity export data, MNEs are found to account for the majority of firm exports during this period. Wholly-foreign MNEs (WFs), which accounted for the vast majority of MNE production in Vietnam, accounted for most MNE exports. Both WFs and MNE joint ventures (JV) made larger direct contributions to exports than to production or employment, as observed in other Asian developing economies. There was a strong tendency for WFs to have the highest export propensities (export-turnover ratios) followed by JVs. Manufacturing firms exported over four-fifths of the total in most years. Tobit estimates that controlled for the effects of firm size, capital intensity, liquidity, location, and industry affiliation for manufacturers indicate WFs also had the highest conditional export propensities, followed by JVs, private firms, while export propensities tended to be similar in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private firms in most industries. Because Vietnam imposes few ownership restrictions on MNEs, these results imply that MNEs generally prefer to export from WFs rather than JVs, and are consistent with previous results for Thailand and Indonesia, for example. |
| Keywords: | Multinational enterprises, state-owned enterprises, ownership, exports, F14, F23, L33, L60, L81, O53 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000143&r=sea |
| By: | Sta. Romana, Leonardo L. |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the issue of sustainability reporting by corporations, and the framework(s) and guidelines used in the preparation of those annual reports. It takes as its starting point the UN Sustainable Development Goal 12: “Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns”, with its Target 12.6: “Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle”. And it is the Indicator 12.6.1: “Number of companies publishing sustainability reports” that provides the inspiration for the idea for doing this study. The study provides, firstly, a brief background on the group responsible for the sustainability reporting framework widely used by companies, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI). This is followed with another short background on a second, though newer, group with another framework, the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC). The study presents - to the best of the author's knowledge - the first comparative study of corporate sustainability reports (and the frameworks used) across ten Emerging Asian economies. It proceeds to this core empirical contribution of the paper by explaining the process how the corporations in Emerging Asia were selected for inclusion in the study. It notes that the companies and the economies of origin were not picked directly for inclusion. The first step was to find reputable corporate sustainability rankings and ratings. Seven information sources yielded a list of 150 companies from ten Emerging Asian economies. These economies are: China, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore. It then presents the findings from a survey of the sustainability reports of the 150 corporations. Across the entire sample, almost 90 percent cite the use of the GRI guidelines. In three economies with more than just a handful of companies in the sample -- South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand -- all of their companies cite the GRI framework. However, the picture is not as one-sided in India, where less than half cite the GRI. |
| Keywords: | Environmental sustainability, Corporate social responsibility (CSR), Environmental economics, Sustainable development, Sustainable development goals (SDGs), Sustainability reporting, Environment and development, Emerging Asia, Environmental, social and governance (ESG), Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC), Integrated reporting, China, Hong Kong, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore |
| JEL: | D62 M2 O44 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87318&r=sea |
| By: | Gupta, Prachi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Asian financial crises, the Indonesian government launched a subsidized rice program called RASKIN in 1998 to moderate the shocks of food price inflation and reduced employment to poor households. The program has been continued since then with an objective to provide food security to poor families and is currently the largest in-kind transfer in Indonesia. Using data from five rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey covering the period of 1993–2014, we examine the impact of RASKIN on children’s health status. Using the difference-in-difference estimator, we find that children from the households that are beneficiaries of the RASKIN program show improved health status as measured by various anthropometric measures. We further investigate the long-run gains from RASKIN by tracing the health status of children aged between 0 and 5 years old in 1993 and 1997, respectively, until their adolescence/adulthood. We find evidence of improved anthropometric health outcomes for these children in later years. The gains are found to be higher for children who started receiving the subsidized rice in the early years of childhood. |
| Keywords: | in-kind transfers; food consumption; child development; health; long-run impact |
| JEL: | H50 I12 I38 O15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2018–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0826&r=sea |
| By: | Aqil Alviana, Gunawan; Muhammad, Tsani Abdulhakim |
| Abstract: | Zakat is the third pillar of Islam, obliging every Muslim who is willing to expend his treasure in the effort to cleanse, purify, develop and help the mustahik to improve their lives. As the majority of Indonesian people work in the agricultural sector. With the characteristic features of an agriculture-based economy, the people of Indonesia are beginning to look at their economic growth. Distribution of zakat aims to make redistribution of income among the Islamic community, so there is no centralization of wealth on either side. Zakat is very influential on human economic behavior Zakat mal is the zakat imposed on property owned by individuals with the terms and conditions that have been determined. It is expected that the management of good zakat mall as well as proper distribution of targets can improve the economic welfare of Indonesian society. This writing aims to determine the role of zakat mal in the economy of Indonesian society. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: zakat, property, economy, base. |
| JEL: | Z1 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87396&r=sea |
| By: | Firmin Doko Tchatoka (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Virginie Masson (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Sean Parry (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the debate on the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns by replicating the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression model for the US stock market in Sim and Zhou (2015, Journal of Banking and Finance), and extending it to 15 countries. The classification of these countries as oil importers or oil exporters depends on their net position in crude oil trade. Our results indicate that the finding by Sim and Zhou (2015) that large negative oil price shocks can bolster stock returns when markets are performing well is only partially supported by the three largest oil importers in our sample-China, Japan and India-during the period 1988:1-2007:12. However, when extending the study to more recent data (period 1988:1-2016:12), we find that China and India experience higher returns when markets perform well and there is a large positive oil price shock. Also, large positive oil price shocks often lead to higher stock market returns when markets perform well for both oil exporting countries-Canada, Russia, Norway-and moderately oil dependent countries-such as Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. These findings highlight that the relationship between the distributions of oil price shocks and stock market returns is not stable over time in most countries studied. Furthermore, the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks observed in the US market by Sim and Zhou (2015) is less evident in most countries for both the baseline and extended periods. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices; stock returns; Quantile regression |
| JEL: | C01 C14 C31 G15 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2018-01&r=sea |
| By: | Napalang, Ma. Sheilah G.; Agatep, Pia May, G.; Navarro, Adoracion, M.; Detros, Keith, C. |
| Abstract: | Road funds like the Motor Vehicle User's Charge (MVUC) fund in the Philippines are earmarked funds that ensure a stable flow of resources, particularly for public road development projects. However, shortcomings from project identification to fund disbursement hamper effective implementation of the MVUC funding scheme. In assessing the different MVUC processes, this paper finds that transparency and efficiency in collection should be improved through automation and accurate recording. Project identification and investment programming must also adhere to the recommended procedures in the operating manual. As the study finds indications of fund underutilization, it suggests accelerating fund utilization through advance project development and investment programming. Looking at five MVUC-funded projects, it observes that only one of the five projects had an impact monitoring system. Nevertheless, findings from field visits and interviews with beneficiaries reveal that there are positive benefits from the MVUC mechanism. A closer look at successful cases in other countries also reveals good practices that are worth noting. |
| Keywords: | public finance, Philippines, road fund, earmarking, MVUC, transportation, motor vehicle inspection system, program assessment |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:rps_2018-01&r=sea |
| By: | Pham, Tuan; Tran, Thi Ha |
| Abstract: | Using both aggregate and disaggregate data, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of VND/CNY exchange rate (including exchange rate level and volatility) on trade flows between Vietnam and China. For this analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied. In the disaggregate models, long-run results indicate that 9 import commodities (approximately 28.67% of total import value) are sensitive to real exchange rate level, and 9 export commodities (approximately 39,146% of total export value) also respond to changes in exchange rate level. Most of unaffected commodities are raw, intermediate, and simply processed products (the biggest component in total import volume). In addition, the study found that export commodities are more sensitive to exchange rate volatility than import commodities. Notably, the results of aggregate model indicate that there is no statistical evidence of any linkage between exchange rate and trade (export and import). In other words, exchange rate is likely to be ineffective to improve trade balance between Vietnam and China. This is noticeable signal in term of effective coordination between the monetary and trade policy of Vietnam |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, China, Exchange Rate, Import, Export, ARDL |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 E6 F1 F4 |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87457&r=sea |
| By: | Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000–2016 by using a Panel-VAR model in the case of 8 Asian economies: Bangladesh, the People’s Republic of China, Indonesia, India, Japan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Our results confirm that energy price (oil price) has a significant impact on food prices. According to the results of impulse response functions, agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices. The findings from variance decomposition reveal that shares of oil prices in agricultural food price volatilities are the largest. In the second period 4.81%, and in the 20th period 62.49%, of food price variance is explained by oil price movements. We offer new policy insight. Since We also found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2% of the food price variance. However, by increasing the demand for biofuel, especially in advanced countries, there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security, especially in vulnerable economies. |
| Keywords: | oil price; food price; agricultural commodities prices; Panel-VAR model |
| JEL: | O13 Q11 Q18 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0829&r=sea |
| By: | Giudici, Paolo (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Spelta, Alessandro (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We present a new methodology, based on tensor decomposition, to map dynamic trade networks and assess their strength in spreading economic fluctuations at different periods of time in Asia. Using monthly merchandise import and export data across 33 Asian economies, together with the United Sates, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, we detect the modularity structure of the evolving network and we identify communities and central nodes inside each of them. Our findings show that data are well represented by two communities, in which the People's Republic of China and Japan play the major role. We then analyze the synchronization between GDP growth and trade, and apply our model to the prediction of economic fluctuations. Our findings show that the model leads to an increase in predictive accuracy, as higher order interactions between countries are taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Asia; Trade Network; Tensor decomposition; Community detection |
| JEL: | C58 C63 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0832&r=sea |
| By: | Javed, Rashid; Mughal, Mazhar |
| Abstract: | Son preference is common in many Asian countries. Though a growing body of literature examines the drivers and socioeconomic impacts of phenomenon in case of China and India, work on other Asian countries is scarce. This study uses nationally representative survey of over 13 thousand households from Pakistan (PDHS 2012-13) to analyze the effects of observed preference for sons on women’s participation in intra-household decision-making. Four key intra-household decisions are considered: decisions regarding healthcare, family visits, large household purchases and spending husband's income. These correspond to four categories of household decisions, namely healthcare, social, consumption and financial. Probit and Ordered Probit are employed as the main estimation techniques and other determinants of household decision-making are controlled for. Besides, a number of matching routines are employed to account for the possibility of potential selection bias. We find that women with at least one son have more say in household decisions. Bearing at least one son is associated with 5%, 7% and 5% higher say in decisions involving healthcare, social and consumption matters respectively. Women's role in financial affairs, however, does not differ significantly from women with no sons. Female participation in decision-making grows significantly with the number of sons but only up to the third parity. These results are particularly visible among younger, wealthier and educated women, and those who got married earlier. The findings suggest a limited improvement in women's bargaining power at home resulting from the birth of one or more sons. This in part explains higher desire for sons expressed by women compared to men in household surveys. |
| Keywords: | Son preference,Gender bias,Sex selection,Female decision-making,intrahousehold bargaining,Pakistan |
| JEL: | D13 J13 C13 C70 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:179520&r=sea |
| By: | Nabil Kahale |
| Abstract: | We describe general multilevel Monte Carlo methods that estimate the price of an Asian option monitored at $m$ fixed dates. Our algorithms yield an unbiased estimator with standard deviation $O(\epsilon)$ in $O(m + (1/\epsilon)^{2})$ expected time for a variety of processes such as the Black-Scholes model, the CEV model, Merton's jump-diffusion model, a class of exponential Levy processes and, via the Milstein scheme, processes driven by scalar stochastic differential equations. Using the Euler scheme, our approach estimates the Asian option price with root mean square error $O(\epsilon)$ in $O(m+(\ln(\epsilon)/\epsilon)^{2})$ expected time for processes driven by multidimensional stochastic differential equations. Preliminary numerical experiments confirm that our approach outperforms the conventional Monte Carlo method by a factor of order $m$. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.09427&r=sea |
| By: | Rashid Javed (UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Mazhar Mughal (ESC Pau) |
| Abstract: | Son preference is common in many Asian countries. Though a growing body of literature examines the drivers and socioeconomic impacts of phenomenon in case of China and India, work on other Asian countries is scarce. This study uses nationally representative survey of over 13 thousand households from Pakistan (PDHS 2012-13) to analyze the effects of observed preference for sons on women’s participation in intra-household decision-making. Four key intra-household decisions are considered: decisions regarding healthcare, family visits, large household purchases and spending husband's income. These correspond to four categories of household decisions, namely healthcare, social, consumption and financial. Probit and Ordered Probit are employed as the main estimation techniques and other determinants of household decision-making are controlled for. Besides, a number of matching routines are employed to account for the possibility of potential selection bias. We find that women with at least one son have more say in household decisions. Bearing at least one son is associated with 5%, 7% and 5% higher say in decisions involving healthcare, social and consumption matters respectively. Women's role in financial affairs, however, does not differ significantly from women with no sons. Female participation in decisionmaking grows significantly with the number of sons but only up to the third parity. These results are particularly visible among younger, wealthier and educated women, and those who got married earlier. The findings suggest a limited improvement in women's bargaining power at home resulting from the birth of one or more sons. This in part explains higher desire for sons expressed by women compared to men in household surveys. |
| Abstract: | La préférence pour les garçons est courante en asie. Alors que beaucoup d’études s’intéressent aux facteurs et aux impacts socioéconomiques de ce phénomène en Chine et en Inde, les travaux sur les autres pays asiatiques sont plus rares. A partir d’une enquête nationale réalisée sur plus de 13 000 ménages pakistanais (PDHS 2012-13), cette étude analyse les effets de la préférence pour les garçons sur la participation des femmes aux décisions prises dans le ménage. Quatre décisions importantes du ménage seront prises en compte : celles relatives aux soins de santé, aux visites de famille, sur les achats du ménage et sur l’affectation des dépenses des revenus du mari. Celles-ci représentent quatre catégories des décisions au sain du ménage : les décisions lié à la santé, aux liens sociaux, à la consommation et aux affaires financières. Les méthodes Probit et Probit Ordinal sont utilisées pour les estimations de base et d’autres déterminants liés aux décisions prises dans le ménage seront pris en compte. De plus, méthodes d’appariment sont utilisées pour tenir compte d’éventuels biais de sélection. Les résultats indiquent que le fait d’avoir au moins un fils a une influence sur les décisions du ménage. Le fait d’avoir au moins un fils est associé à une hausse de 5%, 7% et 5% sur les décisions impliquant respectivement les soins de santé, les relations sociales et la consommation. L’implication des femmes dans les finances du ménage ne varie pourtant pas significativement avec celle des femmes sans fils. La participation des femmes dans les prises de décision augmente avec le nombre de fils mais seulement jusqu’à 3 garçons. Ce résultat entraine une amélioration relative sur le pouvoir de négociation des femmes au sein du ménage suite à la naissance d’un ou plusieurs garçons. Cela explique en partie le désir plus fort des femmes d’avoir des fils par rapport aux hommes, selon les enquêtes ménages. |
| Keywords: | intrahousehold bargaining,Son preference, Gender bias, Sex selection, Female decision-making,préférence pour les garçons , biais de genre , prise de décision de femmes , Pakistan. |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01810509&r=sea |
| By: | De Resende, Carlos (Asian Development Bank Institute); Takagi, Shinji (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We identify the key features of International Monetary Fund (IMF)–supported programs following the 2008 global financial crisis. The statistical analysis of a large sample of countries that borrowed from the IMF during 1997–2013 indicates that, compared to the amount of financing provided to crisis countries during the post-Asian crisis period, the amount was larger on average by more than 3 percentage points of GDP. Yet, the observed magnitude of adjustment in key macroeconomic variables, such as output, the exchange rate, and the current account balance, was just as large, even when the influence of less favorable global economic conditions was controlled for. We argue that the puzzle can be explained, in part, by the large-scale global financial deleveraging, as well as the large initial domestic imbalances observed during the post-global crisis period. The IMF’s post-global crisis programs routinely allowed fiscal balance targets to be relaxed in the face of adverse shocks; some attempted to bail in private investors or accommodated the use of capital and exchange controls to limit capital outflows; and the IMF often collaborated with other donors to boost total official financing. It is reasonable to surmise that, without these innovations, the required macroeconomic adjustments would have been even greater. |
| Keywords: | Asian financial crisis; global financial crisis; IMF programs |
| JEL: | E65 F33 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2018–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0838&r=sea |
| By: | McGarry, Kathleen (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sun, Xiaoting (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The phenomenon of son preference in the People’s Republic of China and throughout much of Asia has been well documented. However, changing economic conditions, such as increases in educational attainment and employment opportunities for women and the rise in the prevalence of one-child families, have likely changed the incentives for parents to invest in daughters. We take advantage of data spanning three generations of Chinese families to examine the evolution of educational attainment for boys and girls and importantly the relative levels of schooling of each gender. We also use variation in the timing of compulsory schooling laws and the implementation of the one-child policy to assess the effect of these policy measures on the relative educational levels. We find a substantial narrowing of the gap between the schooling of boys and girls, so much so that girls now have more schooling on average than boys. In addition, public policy initiatives had a larger effect in rural than urban areas. |
| Keywords: | compulsory schooling; one-child policy; gender differences in education |
| JEL: | I20 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0834&r=sea |
| By: | Jae Woo Lee; Ashadun Nobi |
| Abstract: | We consider the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the global stock market before, during, and after the crisis. We generate complex networks from a cross-correlation matrix such as the threshold network (TN) and the minimal spanning tree (MST). In the threshold network, we assign a threshold value by using the mean and standard deviation of cross-correlation coefficients. When the threshold is equal to the mean of these coefficients, we observe a giant cluster composed of three economic zones in all three periods. We find that during the crisis, the countries in the Asian zone were weakly connected and those in the American zone were tightly linked to the countries in the European zone. At a large threshold, the three economic zones were fragmented. The European countries connected tightly, but the Asian countries bound weakly. The MST constructed from the distance matrix. In the MST, France remained a hub node in all three periods. The size of the MST shrank slightly during the crisis. We observe a scaling relation between the network distance of nodes from the central hub (France) and the geometrical distance. We observe the topological change of the financial network structure during the global financial crisis. The TN and MST are complementary roles to understand the connecting structure of financial complex networks. The TN reveals to observe the clustering effects and robustness of the cluster during the financial crisis. The MST shows the central hub and connecting node among the economic zones. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04363&r=sea |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); Trinh Le (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Most developing countries lack spatially disaggregated price data, despite the importance of spatial transactions costs in these settings. We experimented in Vietnam with a new way of obtaining disaggregated price data, using local expert knowledge to derive the mean and variance for prices of 64 items in over 1000 communities. We use these prices to calculate regional cost-of-living indexes. These provide a better approximation to benchmark multilateral price indexes calculated from traditional market price surveys than do two no-price methods, based on using food Engel curves to derive deflators and based on unit values (survey group expenditure over group quantity). |
| Keywords: | expert knowledge; inequality; prices; regional cost-of-living |
| JEL: | D12 E31 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:18/08&r=sea |
| By: | Eric D. , Ramstetter |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) contributed to exports by Thai manufacturing plants at the industry level in 2006. The mean export-sales ratio (export propensities) in heavily-foreign MNEs with foreign ownership shares of 90 percent or more exceeded 50 percent and heavily-foreign MNEs accounted for one-third of plant exports. Minority-foreign (10-49% foreign shares) and majority-foreign (50-89% shares) MNEs combined to account for another one-fifth of plant exports but had lower export propensities, about 30 percent and 40 percent, respectively. The mean export propensity for local plants in 20 sample industries was only 15 percent. In large samples of all 20 industries combined, econometric estimates controlling for industry affiliation with intercept dummies as well as the effects of the scale, age, factor intensities or labor productivity, and BOI-promotion status of plants also indicated that export propensities were the highest in heavily-foreign MNEs, followed by majority-foreign MNEs, minority-foreign MNEs, and lastly by local plants. Moreover, ownership-related differences in export propensities were highly significant statistically. When inter-industry heterogeneity was more fully accounted for by allowing slope coefficients as well as intercepts to differ among the 20 industries, export propensities were the highest in heavily-foreign MNEs and significantly higher than in local plants in 12 industries. However, differences among MNE ownership groups were usually insignificant and MNE-local differentials in export propensities differed substantially among industries, suggesting it is important account for inter-industry heterogeneity as fully as possible. |
| Keywords: | ownership, multinational enterprises, exports, Thailand, manufacturing, F14, F23, L33, L60, L81, O53 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000144&r=sea |
| By: | Poole, Jennifer (Asian Development Bank Institute); Santos-Paulino, Amelia (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sokolova, Maria (Asian Development Bank Institute); DiCaprio, Alisa (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Market-oriented reforms, such as liberalizing trade and encouraging foreign direct investment, can generate large efficiency gains for a country. However, there is also concern that lower-skilled workers are increasingly being replaced by technology and that more globalized markets are harming employment opportunities. We investigate these issues by exploring household surveys from Viet Nam, combined with information on the task content of occupations, industrial exposure to international trade, and access to technology across the country. We assess the extent to which exposure to foreign markets and access to digital technologies affect the demand for different types of skills, by exploiting the fact that provinces vary in the degree of access to digital technologies and industries vary in the degree of exposure to foreign markets. We also extend much of the literature to consider the interplay between trade and technology on labor demand. On its own, technological change does not appear to be a main driver of the demand for skill in Viet Nam. Increased trade, rather, does expand employment opportunities across both skilled and unskilled workers. Consistent with classic trade theory, the increase is stronger for manual and routine tasks, shifting the composition of the labor force toward lower-skilled workers. However, the increase in manual and routine employment opportunities in response to the trade shock is smaller in areas of the country with access to digital technologies, providing suggestive evidence of the routine-biased nature of technology. From a policy standpoint, our work contributes to an understanding of job requirements and job security in an increasingly technology-driven and integrated world economy. Our research also offers insights for other lesser developing countries that face similar challenges. |
| Keywords: | Viet Nam; trade; information technology; skills |
| JEL: | F16 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0770&r=sea |
| By: | Morgan, Peter J. (Asian Development Bank Institute); Trinh, Long Q. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine the heterogeneous effect of migration on left-behind children’s education and labor in Viet Nam. Since decisions to attend school and to work are jointly determined, we use a simultaneous equation modeling approach to estimate the effect of migration on child education and labor. Since migration also affects household welfare, we also integrate household welfare into our system of equations. We use a unique household-level data set collected in 2012 and 2014 in rural Viet Nam. We find that migration of other family members does not affect a child’s decision to attend school directly, but does so indirectly through an increase in time spent at work. However, migration might increase household income, and this may also have a positive effect on child education and reduce child labor. We also find some heterogeneous effects by type of migration (migration for education and migration for work purposes) as well as effects of sending money to migrants and receiving money from migrants on household income, child labor, and ultimately child education. |
| Keywords: | child education; child labor; child welfare; migration; Viet Nam |
| JEL: | D01 D13 J13 |
| Date: | 2018–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0835&r=sea |
| By: | Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Inagaki, Yugo (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The decline in solar module prices is one of the key drivers behind the growth of the solar energy market. Thus, the price reduction mechanism in solar modules has become an important topic as the role of solar electricity in the overall energy supply and the market value of solar modules grow globally. Many empirical analyses have been carried out to unveil the mechanism behind this price reduction. However, the research performed on the price reduction mechanism of solar modules over the years have focused purely on the technological aspect of the manufacturing. When analyzing price, the influence of economic factors such as interest rate and exchange rate must also be taken into consideration to achieve a precise analysis. We use an oligopolistic model and econometric method to determine the economic factors that have an influence on solar module prices. |
| Keywords: | solar modules; renewable energy; price reduction |
| JEL: | E43 Q21 Q28 |
| Date: | 2018–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0836&r=sea |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Chris Rooney (University of Cape Town; Director and Professor) |
| Abstract: | The level of unemployment, poverty and inequality in South Africa is high in relation to the rest of the world. To overcome these three challenges, more and better jobs need to be created. A key source for these types of jobs can be found in the labour intensive manufacturing sector. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the performance of the South African manufacturing sector. We find that compared to other sectors of the economy, the manufacturing sector has performed poorly, both in terms of GDP growth and job creation. While all manufacturing sub-sectors showed GDP growth, that growth was marginal. Furthermore, although some manufacturing sub-sectors showed job growth, the rate of job losses in other manufacturing sub-sectors was far greater, resulting in overall job losses. We argue that the poor performance of the manufacturing sector can be attributed to increased competition from south-east Asia, and South Africa’s skills shortage. This research was commissioned by the Manufacturing, Engineering and Related Services SETA (merSETA). The authors wish to acknowledge merSETA’s contribution as funder, to the research and work herein. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing, development, South Africa, jobs, skills shortage |
| JEL: | L60 N67 O1 O14 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:201702&r=sea |
| By: | Victor Stango (University of California-Davis); Joanne Yoong (University of Southern California, National University of Singapore, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Jonathan Zinman (Dartmouth College and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Behavioral economics lacks empirical evidence on some foundational questions. We adapt standard elicitation methods to measure multiple behavioral factors per person in a representative U.S. sample, along with financial condition, cognitive skills, financial literacy, classical preferences, and demographics. Individually, behavioral factors are prevalent, distinct from other decision inputs, and correlate negatively with financial outcomes in richly-conditioned regressions. Conditioning further on other B-factors does not change the results, validating common practice of modeling B-factors separately. Corrections for low task/survey effort modestly strengthen the results. Our findings provide bedrock empirical foundations for behavioral economics, and offer methodological guidance for research designs. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp378&r=sea |
| By: | Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between a declining labor income share and a falling relative price of capital requires capital and labor to be gross substitutes at the aggregate level (i.e., σ_Agg>1). We argue that this restriction can be relaxed if we distinguish labor by skills and identify differential capital-labor substitutability across skill groups. Using the Morishima elasticity of substitution in a three-factor nested-CES production function, we analytically estimate the elasticity of substitution parameters between capital and skilled labor (ρ) and between capital and unskilled labor (σ). We then derive the necessary conditions for a decline in the labor income share based on ρ and σ, which does not require σ_Agg to be greater than unity. |
| Keywords: | substitution elasticity; labor income share; production function parameters |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E25 |
| Date: | 2018–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0839&r=sea |