|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Do Thi Thuy, Thuy; Nguyen, Quang Dung; Nguyen Van, Huy; Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Trinh, Thi-Huong |
| Abstract: | Vietnam launched the national Expanded Program on Immunization in 1981. Since then, this program has contributed signi cantly to the improvement of child health and to the reduction of child mortality rate. Despite of the fact that the coverage of the national EPI keeps expanding, the number of children who complied with the recommended immunization schedule remains low. This article studies the progress of the timeliness childhood immunization compliance among children between 0-5 years of age in Vietnam from 2006 to 2014 and analyzes the socio-economic factors that account for the changes of the compliance rate during this period. The dataset is extracted from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey in 2006 and 2014. We rst identify the socio-economic factors that impact on the vaccination compliance rate using a logistic regression model. Next, we apply the decomposition method to determine the contribution of each factor on the evolution of the timeliness childhood immunization compliance. The progress of the timeliness childhood immunization has been positive and the major contribution comes from the structure e ect (unmeasured e ect). Rural areas show a stronger improvement as of 2014. Among the socio-economic factors, mother education and birth order are the ones that have the larger in uence on the childhood immunization compliance rate. However, these factors have di erent implications in urban and rural areas. These ndings are critical to the current context of Vietnam where the government is designing a strategy focusing on the e ectiveness rather than the traditional coverage indicator. |
| Keywords: | Vaccination; timeliness childhood immunisation compliance; decomposition; logistic model; MICS data; Vietnam |
| JEL: | C02 C21 C51 P46 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32646&r=sea |
| By: | Beal, Ty; Le Danh, Tuyen; Nguyen, Duy Son; Simioni, Michel; Thomas-Agnan, Christine; Trinh, Thi-Huong |
| Abstract: | Vietnam launched the national Expanded Program on Immunization in 1981. Since then, this program has contributed signi cantly to the improvement of child health and to the reduction of child mortality rate. Despite of the fact that the coverage of the national EPI keeps expanding, the number of children who complied with the recommended immunization schedule remains low. This article studies the progress of the timeliness childhood immunization compliance among children between 0-5 years of age in Vietnam from 2006 to 2014 and analyzes the socio-economic factors that account for the changes of the compliance rate during this period. The dataset is extracted from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey in 2006 and 2014. We rst identify the socio-economic factors that impact on the vaccination compliance rate using a logistic regression model. Next, we apply the decomposition method to determine the contribution of each factor on the evolution of the timeliness childhood immunization compliance. The progress of the timeliness childhood immunization has been positive and the major contribution comes from the structure e ect (unmeasured e ect). Rural areas show a stronger improvement as of 2014. Among the socio-economic factors, mother education and birth order are the ones that have the larger in uence on the childhood immunization compliance rate. However, these factors have di erent implications in urban and rural areas. These ndings are critical to the current context of Vietnam where the government is designing a strategy focusing on the e ectiveness rather than the traditional coverage indicator. |
| Keywords: | Vaccination; timeliness childhood immunisation compliance; decomposition; logistic model; MICS data; Vietnam |
| JEL: | C02 C31 C51 I18 I38 Q18 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32652&r=sea |
| By: | Oskar Kowalewski (IÉSEG School of Management and LEM CNRS (UMR 9221), Paris, France; Vistula University, Warsaw, Poland); Paweł Pisany (Institute of Economics of the Polish Academy of Science, Warsaw, Poland. Collegium of World Economy, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland.) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the development of corporate bond markets in 10 Asian countries from 1995 to 2014. Using data on outstanding value and total issue of bonds by financial and non-financial companies, we confirm that macroeconomic and institutional factors are related to the depth of the corporate bond market. We show that creditor rights and institutional quality are important in explaining the size of outstanding value and issuance of corporate bonds. Furthermore, we determine a strong positive association between the level of domestic credit and the outstanding value and issue of corporate bonds. From the results, we surmise that there is a positive relationship between the development of the corporate bond market and the banking sector. These findings indicate that increased demand for bank loans induced the issuance of bonds by financial institutions, which, in turn, might have led to the development of corporate bond markets in Asia. Finally, we document that the development of corporate bond markets might have helped mitigate the outcome of the financial crisis of 2008 in Asia. |
| Keywords: | corporate bond market, bond issuance, crisis, banking sector, Asia |
| JEL: | F36 O16 G15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:285&r=sea |
| By: | Chan, Jin; Mohd Hashim, Intan Hashima; Khoo, Suet Leng; Lean, Hooi Hooi; Piterou, Athena |
| Abstract: | George Town World Heritage Site in Penang, Malaysia is well-endowed with creative and cultural resources, and has recently witnessed a rise in relevant activities. This study examines how 'innovation culture' is inculcated and embedded within two local organisations with distinct approaches to innovation. We adapted the measurements of entrepreneurship orientation constructs (innovativeness, risk-taking, pro-activeness), and conducted semi-structured interviews and archival study on the organisations and their networks. We documented the linkages in their value chains to understand the resulting social networks and whether such network fosters the incubation of an innovation cluster for the local creative and cultural sectors. |
| Keywords: | Innovativeness; World Heritage; Social Network; Cluster; Ecosystem |
| Date: | 2018–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:19989&r=sea |
| By: | CHUN, Hyunbae; HUR, Jung; SON, Nyeong Seon |
| Abstract: | Recently multinational enterprises (MNEs) originating from Asian countries such as China and Korea have rapidly expanded their global operations, but the employment effect of these MNEs in their home countries has rarely been studied. Using Korean firm–plant matched data over 2008–2013, we examine the effects of MNEs on domestic plant turnover and job growth. We find that Korean MNEs are more likely than non–MNEs to not only close down their domestic manufacturing plants but also open new plants. Along with active plant turnover, Korean MNEs exhibit greater active job reallocation across their domestic manufacturing plants within firms; however, this does not result in net job loss. This suggests that Korean MNEs participating in Factory Asia restructured their domestic manufacturing bases rather than hollowing them out. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Job Reallocation, Multinational Enterprise, Plant Birth, Plant Death |
| JEL: | F23 L23 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-71&r=sea |
| By: | Lee, Jong-Wha (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lee, Hanol (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We investigate empirically how human capital, measured by educational attainment, is related to income distribution. We find that the regressions, using a panel data set covering a broad range of countries between 1980 and 2015, show that a more equal distribution of education contributes significantly to reducing income inequality. Educational expansion is a major factor in reducing educational inequality and thus income inequality. Public policies that improve social benefits and price stability contribute to reducing income inequality, while public spending on education helps to reduce educational inequality. In contrast, higher per capita income, greater openness to international trade, and faster technological progress tend to make both income and education distribution more unequal. Using the calibration of empirical results, we find that we can attribute the rising income inequality within East Asian economies in recent decades to the unequalizing effects of fast income growth and rapid progress in globalization and technological change, which have surpassed the income-equalizing effects from improved equality in the distribution of educational attainment during the period. |
| Keywords: | income distribution; inequality; human capital; education; globalization; technological change |
| JEL: | D31 H52 I24 O53 |
| Date: | 2018–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0810&r=sea |
| By: | Braunstein, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | This article examines bailout policies in non-Western states through selected case studies of financial bailouts in Hong Kong and Singapore between the 1960s and 1990s. Given their structural similarities and extreme openness, standard explanations would expect to find similar policy responses over this period. However, between the 1960s and 1990s, bailout policies differed greatly between the two countries, particularly with respect to the use of their sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). This article also shows that the differing uses of SWFs reflected the respective regulatory environments. In line with an emerging stream of studies in comparative politics, the present article finds that these differences take root in the institutional settings of the respective countries and vary across state-business relations. |
| Keywords: | financial crises; sovereign wealth funds; bailouts; government-business relations; small open economies |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2017–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68472&r=sea |
| By: | Kubitza, Christoph; Gehrke, Esther |
| Abstract: | The introduction of new production technologies is often regarded as one of the key drivers of the historical fertility transition in the US and Western Europe. In contrast, empirical evidence on the relationship between technology and fertility in a developing country context is largely inexistent. Our paper addresses this gap by exploring the expansion of oil palm in Indonesia. Oil palm induces labor savings similar to mechanization, but is also widely adopted by smallholder farmers. We use Becker's quantity-quality model to identify different causal mechanism through which the expansion of oil palm could affect fertility rates. Our identification strategy relies on an instrumental variables approach with regency-fixed effects, in which the area under oil palm at regency level is instrumented by regency-level attainable yield of oil palm interacted with the national oil palm expansion. While a labor-saving technology could theoretically increase fertility rates by decreasing maternal opportunity costs of time, we find consistently negative effects of the oil palm expansion on fertility. The results suggest that income gains among agricultural households coupled with broader local economic development explain this effect. Specifically, local economic development seems to have raised returns to education and triggered investments into women's and children's education, which together with the direct income effect explain the bulk of the negative effect of the oil palm expansion on fertility. |
| Keywords: | oil palm,fertility rate,technological change,labor-savings,quantity-quality model |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:crc990:22&r=sea |
| By: | Shoichi Sasaki (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of inequalities in male educational wages and gender–such as the gender wage gap and barriers for labor force participation of female workers–on the labor market. It considers the effects of social infrastructure or public goods on marital segregation in Japan, South Korea, Republic of China, and Taiwan. The theoretical hypothesis that Fernández et al. (2005) build is empirically analyzed using individual data from East Asian Social Survey. The estimation results suggest that wage and gender inequalities in the labor market, such as skill wage premiums for men and full-time rates for married women, significantly affect marital segregation. These results show that policies to decrease inequality in the parental generation can decrease future inequality. |
| Keywords: | Wage premium, skilled workers, gender gap, marital segregation, assortative mating, hypogamy |
| JEL: | J11 J12 J16 J24 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1822&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A cyclical recovery is underway though it is yet to be broad-based. Domestic demand remains sluggish amid structural challenges, inflation continues to show weak dynamics, and the current account surplus remains large. The authorities have taken important measures to strengthen financial stability, and enacted reforms that bode well for medium-term fiscal management and credibility. Under the 12th National Development Plan, the government’s program aims to address the impediments to growth and scale up infrastructure to enhance Thailand’s position in global value chains and propel the economy into the digital age. |
| Date: | 2018–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/143&r=sea |
| By: | Chai, Shijun (Asian Development Bank Institute); Chen, Yang (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Ye, Dezhu (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Using the 2011 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) database, we explore the heterogeneous impacts of social networks on informal financial inclusion for urban and rural households in the People’s Republic of China. We find that social networks significantly increase the probability of households’ participation in the informal financial market, augment the size of informal financial transactions, and raise the ratio of informal lending to total household assets. We also identify the mechanisms through which social networks affect households’ participation in the informal financial market. By reducing the information cost, perceived risk, and precautionary saving, social networks play a larger role for urban households than for rural households. Notably, the effects of social networks on informal finance are strengthened by the development of the formal financial market. |
| Keywords: | social networks; informal financial inclusion; perceived risk; precautionary saving; formal financial market |
| JEL: | D10 G20 |
| Date: | 2018–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0802&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2018–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/144&r=sea |
| By: | Duffie, Darrell (Stanford University); Qiao, Lei (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Sun, Yeneng (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | We develop a general and unified model in which a continuum of agents conduct directed random searches for counterparties. Our results provide the first probabilistic foundation for static and dynamic models of directed search (including the matching-function approach) that are common in search-based models of financial markets, monetary theory, and labor economics. The agents' types are shown to be independent discrete-time Markov processes that incorporate the effects of random mutation, random matching with match-induced type changes, and with the potential for enduring partnerships that may have randomly timed break-ups. The multi-period cross-sectional distribution of types is shown to be deterministic and is calculated using the exact law of large numbers. |
| JEL: | C02 D83 E00 G10 J64 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3359&r=sea |
| By: | Löchel, Horst; Nawaz, Fahad |
| Abstract: | The so-called Belt & Road initiative of China is the largest and most comprehensive global economic activity of our times. It consists on a land as well as a sea channel that covers more than 60 countries in Asia and Europe, around 65 % of the world population, one-third of world's GDP, and 25 % of global trade. Although the project is still in a very early stage it is worth starting a scientific based judgment of its impact and success perspective. This paper aims to kick-off such a discussion by conducting a feasibility study including economic as well as political factors. In order to reduce the complexity of the task the overall project is disaggregated by its six economic corridors plus the sea channel, which are evaluated by the same categories and summarized to an overall result. Our analysis shows that for more than half of the corridors a successful implementation is highly likely, for two the feasibility is judged as medium, and only for one it turns out that a success is unlikely mainly due to political reasons. |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F21 F53 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:226&r=sea |
| By: | Nikolaus Thumm (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Vincenzo Butticè (School of Management, Politecnico di Milano); Federico Caviggioli (Department of Management and Production Engineering, Politecnico di Torino); Chiara Franzoni (School of Management, Politecnico di Milano); Giuseppe, Scellato (Department of Management and Production Engineering, Politecnico di Torino) |
| Abstract: | Counterfeiting activities target companies in various sectors, including digital technology companies, defined as companies that produce and/or commercialize at least one physical product that incorporates a digital technology, excluding the merchandising related to the company brands. Counterfeiting is a fraudulent activity that potentially damages the economic and innovation performance of companies and can pose major threats to global competition and economic growth. However, the actual impact of counterfeiting on the performance of companies has not been tested empirically, due to methodological problems, including the lack of data on counterfeiting at the firm-level. Furthermore, prior theoretical studies have speculated that counterfeiting could have in part a beneficial effect on the performance of companies, due to indirect advertising, calling for empirical investigations to shed light on the issue. The goal of the present study is to provide empirical evidence on the impact of counterfeiting on both the economic and innovative performance of digital technology companies at the firm-level and on the global scale. To this aim, a new database was created combining data on counterfeiting activities during 2011-2013 (OECD-EUIPO, 2016) with financial information and patent data from 2009 to 2015. The result is a firm-level database that enables unprecedented analyses on the impact of counterfeiting on performance of digital technology companies. About 9% of the seizures of counterfeits that were illegally traded across borders during 2011 2013 involved goods commercialized by digital technology companies, equivalent to about the 9.1% of the total value of seizures. Collectively, about 11% of companies affected by illegal international trade of counterfeits are digital technology companies. The majority of these (58%) are big corporations with Operating Revenues greater than USD 1 bn. These account for 77% of the number of total seizures, and 84% of the value of seizures related to the digital technology companies. SMEs, defined as those with Operating Revenues up to USD 50 million, represent 21% of digital technology companies targeted and account for 5% of total seizures and 6% of the total value of seizures. The industries mostly targeted are electronics (both consumers’ electronics and electronics for industrial use), automotive and digital media. The digital technology products commercialized in frauds of IPRs include computer hardware and electronic components, batteries, sensors, autoparts, optical instruments, videogames, and recording of movies and motion picture. About 34% of digital technology companies affected by international trade of counterfeits are located in the EU28 or EFTA, 41% are located in North America, 23% are located in Asia. Within the EU28, UK, Germany, France and Italy are the countries hosting the largest number of targeted digital technology companies. Within the EU28, Germany and UK, followed by Belgium and Ireland, are the most-common country of destination of seized counterfeits. The overwhelming majority of seized goods related to digital technology companies is imported from Asia. 51% of these are imported from China, 41% comes from Hong Kong, China, 3% from Singapore. Other economies of provenance account each for less than 1% of the seizures. The vast majority (93%) of seizures affecting digital technology companies are due to violations of trademarks, and only a minority are due to violations of design models (4%), and copyrights (2%). Less than 1% of the seizures are due to violations of patents. However, seizures enacted in defence of patents are those that have the highest mean value. The analysis of infringed companies with respect to a control samples of non-infringed companies indicates that counterfeiting targets specifically highly profitable companies, with high propensity to innovate. Indeed, digital technology companies are more likely to become target of counterfeiting when they have larger Operating Revenues, and when they perform at a higher level in terms of profitability (return on total assets), prior to the window of observation. Target companies also have on average larger patent portfolios, prior to the observation of counterfeiting activities. Digital technology companies located in EU28 are on average less likely than companies located outside of EU28 to be the target of counterfeiting activities. Results from impact analyses indicate lower growth rates of operating profits for digital technology companies targeted by counterfeiting with respect to control samples of firms not affected by counterfeiting. In particular the econometric models provide evidence of a negative impact of counterfeiting on both EBITDA (Earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortisation) and EBIT (Earnings before interest taxes). This result is robust across different estimation methods, model specifications and time windows. The data reveals only a weak negative impact on operating revenues, with limited statistical confidence. Conversely, there is no significant evidence that counterfeiting affected the investment in Fixed Assets of targeted firms with respect to the control sample. The results about the negative impact of counterfeiting activities on operating profits are in line with reports of greater costs incurred by these companies to enact anti-counterfeiting strategies, reported in prior descriptive literature. These practices include the broadening of product ranges, with fewer scale-economies and the enactment of anti-infringement procedures, such as ‘conspicuous packaging’, more screening and origin certifications, development of licensing downstream retailers and direct self-enforcement aimed at limiting the circulation of counterfeits. Results do not provide support for the existence of indirect positive spillover effects, as hypothesised by the theoretical literature, according to which infringed companies might benefit from an advertising effect due to the greater diffusion of brands from the counterfeiting activities. Indeed, at least for what concerns digital technology companies, there is no evidence of any positive effect of infringement on sales of original products. The digital technology companies that were affected by counterfeiting on average increased their patent portfolios during the observation period, but less than the digital technology companies that were not affected by counterfeiting. However, the result is not robust to the inclusion of control variables and to the adoption of alternative measures of innovation performance (Intangible Assets). It certainly merits further research, once more data on counterfeiting become available. Overall, the results indicate that counterfeiting activities harm the economic performance of targeted digital technology companies, by eroding their operating profits. The effect on innovative performance is negative, but still inconclusive due to insufficient dataset, and cannot exclude that counterfeiting may harm the propensity to innovate of digital technology companies. The analysis rules-out the existence of any positive spillover from counterfeiting. |
| Keywords: | Counterfeiting, trade, trade seizures, digital technologies, economic performance, innovative performance, patents, trademarks |
| JEL: | F1 K42 L63 O25 O31 O32 O34 O39 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:decwpa:2018-03&r=sea |
| By: | Fan, Peilei (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, two of the largest transitional economies in Asia, have improved their innovation capability during economic transition. First, we measure and compare innovation capability of both countries by using not only various input and output indicators of innovation systems but also the contribution of technological progress to economic development at different periods of their economic transition. Then we compare how both countries developed their innovation capabilities by focusing on the transformation of their national innovation systems since the economic reform and evolving technology policies. Then we provide a brief view on how the emerging innovative cities in both countries became dominated by the innovation activities of their respective countries. |
| Keywords: | innovation; R&D; China; India; innovation systems |
| JEL: | L65 O30 O31 |
| Date: | 2018–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0809&r=sea |
| By: | Laura Alfaro; Alejandro Cuñat; Harald Fadinger; Yanping Liu |
| Abstract: | We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts: In export-oriented emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with faster growth of firm-level TFP, higher sales and cash-flow, and higher probabilities to engage in R&D and to export. We find negative effects for firms in other emerging economies, which are relatively more import dependent, and no significant effects for firms in industrialized economies. Motivated by these facts, we build a dynamic model in which real depreciations raise the cost of importing intermediates, affect demand, borrowing-constraints and the profitability of engaging in innovation (R&D). We decompose the effects of RER changes on productivity growth across regions into these channels. We estimate the model and quantitatively evaluate the different mechanisms by providing counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements and conduct several robustness analyses. Effects on physical TFP growth, while different across regions, are non-linear and asymmetric. |
| JEL: | F0 O0 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24633&r=sea |
| By: | Wei, Shang-Jin (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We seek to draw lessons for developing countries based on a survey of the recent literature on financial globalization. First, while capital account openness holds promises (by potentially generating a lower cost of capital, better risk sharing, and stronger disciplines on policies), they do not always work out that way in the data. Distortions in the domestic financial market, international capital market, domestic labor market, and domestic public governance can make financial globalization less beneficial for developing countries. Second, developing countries sometimes need to insulate themselves from foreign monetary policy shocks. The empirical pattern appears to be somewhere between a trilemma and a dilemma. While nominal exchange rate flexibility is insufficient for policy autonomy, capital flow management may be needed to confer more monetary policy autonomy. |
| Keywords: | financial globalization; monetary policy autonomy; overborrowing; capital flow management |
| JEL: | E42 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0804&r=sea |
| By: | Alfaro, Laura; Cuñat, Alejandro; Fadinger, Harald; Liu, Yanping |
| Abstract: | We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts: In export-oriented emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with faster growth of firm-level TFP, higher sales and cash-flow, and higher probabilities to engage in R&D and to export. We find negative effects for firms in other emerging economies, which are relatively more import dependent, and no significant effects for firms in industrialized economies. Motivated by these facts, we build a dynamic model in which real depreciations raise the cost of importing intermediates, affect demand, borrowing-constraints and the profitability of engaging in innovation (R&D). We decompose the effects of RER changes on productivity growth across regions into these channels. We estimate the model and quantitatively evaluate the different mechanisms by providing counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements and conduct several robustness analyses. Effects on physical TFP growth, while different across regions, are non-linear and asymmetric. |
| Keywords: | exporting; Financial constraints; Firm-Level Data; importing; Innovation; productivity; real exchange rate |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F31 F41 F43 F47 L16 L52 O14 O24 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12943&r=sea |
| By: | Helble, Matthias (Asian Development Bank Institute); Ali, Zulfiqar (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lego, Jera (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | While several studies have traced the development of various intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), charting their growth and influence in international affairs, and assessing their prospects, few if any have compared IGOs across various fields. We take a closer look at three different policy fields to better understand the current architecture of global governance, the centrality of IGOs, the role of new and other actors, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of this “new” architecture. We find that, first, the emergence of new private players has significantly eroded the centrality of IGOs such that the course of global governance in health, trade, and development finance has changed irreversibly. Second, regional arrangements have overtaken global ones and nonstate actors have assumed more prominent roles. Third, this multiplicity of powerful players has led to some positive outcomes but also greater inefficiencies and redundancies. Fourth, developed countries have been pivotal in eroding the centrality of IGOs, but developing countries are taking on a greater role in global governance. Fifth, the new architecture can be described as one of diversification in global health governance, fragmentation in global trade, and variation in multilateral development finance. Global governance in the 21st century is thus characterized by a proliferation of actors and a decentralization of authority, an erosion of IGO centrality accompanied by a greater role for nonstate actors, developing countries, and by increased regionalism. Depending on the sector of governance, its inherent aims, and the nature of the actors involved, the new architecture may be one of variation, fragmentation, or diversification. While this new architecture is complex and might possibly lead to inefficiencies and redundancies, it allows a greater number of actors to participate, making it more representative of the current world order and making it possible to mobilize more resources to promote development. |
| Keywords: | global development; global governance; global health; global trade; multilateral development banks; public–private partnerships; regional cooperation |
| JEL: | F13 F53 F55 P45 |
| Date: | 2018–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0806&r=sea |
| By: | Holtemöller, Oliver (Asian Development Bank Institute); Scherer, Jan-Christopher (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We investigate to what extent sovereign stress and banking stress have contributed to the increase in the level and in the heterogeneity of nonfinancial firms’ financing costs in the Euro area during the European debt crisis and how both have affected the monetary transmission mechanism. Employing a large firm-level data set containing 2 million observations, we are able to identify the effect of government bond yield spreads (sovereign stress) and the share of non-performing loans (banking stress) on firms' financing costs in a panel model by assuming that idiosyncratic shocks to individual firms are uncorrelated with country-specific variables. We find that the two sources of stress have increased firms’ financing costs controlling for country and firm-specific factors. Moreover, we estimate both to have significantly impaired the monetary transmission mechanism. |
| Keywords: | banking stress; firms’ financing conditions; government bond yields; interest rate channel; monetary policy transmission; sovereign stress |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0811&r=sea |
| By: | Agarwal, Isha (Asian Development Bank Institute); Duttagupta, Rupa (Asian Development Bank Institute); Presbitero, Andrea F. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bank specific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | bank lending; commodity prices; macrofinancial linkages; developing countries |
| JEL: | F30 F34 G21 Q02 |
| Date: | 2018–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0807&r=sea |
| By: | Li, Jun (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wang, Huijun (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yu, Jianfeng (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Consistent with neoclassical models with investment lags, we find that a bottom-up measure of aggregate investment plans, namely, aggregate expected investment growth, negatively predicts future stock market returns. with an adjusted in-sample R2 of 18.5% and an out-of-sample R2 of 16.3% at the 1-year horizon. The return predictive power is robust after controlling for popular macroeconomic return predictors, in subsample periods, as well as in other G7 countries. Further analyses suggest that the predictive ability of aggregate expected investment growth is more likely to be driven by the time-varying risk premium than by behavioral biases such as extrapolative expectations. |
| Keywords: | aggregate investment plans; market return predictability |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2018–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0808&r=sea |
| By: | David Allen (University of Sydney); Michael McAleer (Asia University, University of Sydney Business School, EUR); David McHardy Reid (Seattle University) |
| Abstract: | A set of 115 tweets on climate change by President Trump, from 2011 to 2015, are analysed by means of the data mining technique, Sentiment Analysis. The intention is to explore the contents and sentiments of the messages contained, the degree to which they differ, and their implications about his understanding of climate change. The results suggest a predominantly negative emotion in relation to tweets on climate change, but they appear to lack a clear logical framework, and confuse short term variations in localised weather with long term global average climate change. |
| Keywords: | Sentiment Analysis; Polarity; Climate Change; Scientific Verification; Weather |
| JEL: | A1 C88 C44 Z0 |
| Date: | 2018–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20180054&r=sea |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University); Michael McAleer (Asia University, University of Sydney Business School, EUR); Yu-Ann Wang (National Chung Hsing University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is to examine latent volatility Granger causality for four renewable energy Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and crude oil ETF (USO), namely solar (TAN), wind (FAN), water (PIO), and nuclear (NLR). Data on the renewable energy and crude oil ETFs are from 18 June 2008 to 20 March 2017. From the underlying stochastic process of a vector random coefficient autoregressive (VRCAR) process for the shocks of returns, we derive Latent Volatility Granger causality from the Diagonal BEKK multivariate conditional volatility model. We follow Chang et al. (2015)’s definition of the co-volatility spillovers of shocks, which calculate the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another asset, and extend the effects of the co-volatility spillovers of shocks to the effects of the co-volatility spillovers of squared shocks. The empirical results show there are significant positive latent volatility Granger causality relationships between solar (TAN), wind (FAN), nuclear (NLR), and crude oil (USO) ETFs, specifically significant volatility spillovers of shocks from solar ETF on the subsequent wind ETF co-volatility with solar ETF, and wind ETF on the subsequent solar ETF co-volatility with wind ETF. Interestingly, there are significant volatility spillovers of squared shocks for the renewable energy ETFs, but not with crude oil ETFs. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy; Latent Volatility; Granger Causality; Co-volatility Spillovers; Solar; Wind; Water; Nuclear Power. |
| JEL: | C32 C58 G12 G15 Q42 |
| Date: | 2018–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20180052&r=sea |
| By: | Bhattarai, Saroj (Asian Development Bank Institute); Chatterjee, Arpita (Asian Development Bank Institute); Park, Woong Yong (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We estimate international spillover effects of the United States (US)’ Quantitative Easing (QE) on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a Bayesian VAR on monthly US macroeconomic and financial data, we first identify the US QE shock. The identified US QE shock is then used in a monthly Bayesian panel VAR for EMEs to infer spillover effects on these countries. We find that an expansionary US QE shock has significant effects on financial variables in EMEs. It leads to an exchange rate appreciation, a reduction in long-term bond yields, a stock market boom, and an increase in capital inflows to these countries. These effects on financial variables are stronger for the “Fragile Five" countries compared to other EMEs. |
| Keywords: | US quantitative easing; spillovers; emerging market economies; bayesian var; panel var; fragile five countries |
| JEL: | C31 E44 E52 E58 F32 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2018–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0803&r=sea |
| By: | Howell, Anthony (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We adopt a structural framework to study the process of indigenous innovation and its impact on firm performance in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In our analysis we use a rich source of panel data comprising almost 70,000 private Chinese firms operating in the PRC from 2004 to 2007. Relying on a structural innovation framework, we estimate the effects of technological learning during each phase of the structural model: (i) the firm’s decision to innovate, (ii) the innovation effort, (iii) the innovation throughput, and (iv) the firm performance. We show that in the early stages of innovation, Chinese firms fail to incorporate learning spillovers into their innovation effort, even when considering their absorptive capacity. Conversely, we found that in the later stages of innovation, learning spillovers positively increase firms’ innovation output as well as their performance, especially for firms with high absorptive capacity. |
| Keywords: | innovation; firm performance; learning; agglomeration; institutions; People’s Republic of China |
| JEL: | O30 |
| Date: | 2018–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0805&r=sea |