nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒05‒14
nine papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Environmental tax reform in Asia and the Pacific By Jacqueline Cottrell; Damian Ludewig; Matthias Runkel; Kai Schlegelmilch; Florian Zerzawy
  2. Is it the natural rate or hysteresis hypothesis for unemployment rates in Newly Industrialized Economies? By Nsenga, Dieu; Nach, Mirada; Khobai, Hlalefang; Moyo, Clement; Phiri, Andrew
  3. Does Indonesia’s macroeconomic work well towards the political year? By Verico, Kiki
  4. Risk Factors in Indian non-listed Real Estate Funds By Ashish Gupta
  5. Analysing the Sources of Growth in an Emerging Market Economy: The Thailand Experience By Ho, Sin-Yu
  6. Determinants of early marriage and model of maturing marriage age policy: a case in Jambi Province, Indonesia By Hardiani, Hardiani; Junaidi, Junaidi
  7. The multifaceted relationship between environmental risks and poverty: new insights from Vietnam By Narloch, Ulf; Bangalore, Mook
  8. From the Lab to the Field: A Review of Tax Experiments By Mascagni, Giulia
  9. Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market By Yinqiu Lu; Dmitry Yakovlev

  1. By: Jacqueline Cottrell (Green Budget Europe and Green Budget Germany); Damian Ludewig (Green Budget Europe and Green Budget Germany); Matthias Runkel (Green Budget Europe and Green Budget Germany); Kai Schlegelmilch (Green Budget Europe and Green Budget Germany); Florian Zerzawy (Green Budget Europe and Green Budget Germany)
    Abstract: Environmental tax reform (ETR) is an important and integral part of a sustainable development strategy. ETR is an effective way of integrating economic, social and environmental costs into the price of goods and services while creating incentives for sustainable practices. In recent years, some developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region have introduced schemes to phase out fuel subsidies and are moving towards further reforms to modernize their fiscal governance and tax practices and make greater use of ETR as a primary component of national development strategies. Indeed, several countries in the region are forerunners for ETR outside OECD countries, including India, Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam and China. This paper examines the rationale for the implementation of ETR in Asia-Pacific and its possible role in the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It offers policymakers practical guidance on how governments can reform tax systems and use fiscal policy to drive the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy while taking into account the specific challenges of developing countries in the region. The paper is divided in two parts. Part I provides background information on ETR and looks at experiences in OECD countries. Part II focuses on ETR in the Asia-Pacific region and makes a series of recommendations for policymakers, examining strategic and political economy considerations typically encountered by policymakers during the process of implementing environmental taxes, as well as practical issues relating to tax design, policy planning and implementation. Finally, the paper looks at international and regional policy processes upon which policymakers in Asia-Pacific can draw on for support and consultation while implementing ETR measures.
    Keywords: Environmental tax, fiscal policy, tax structure
    JEL: H20 H23 E62
    Date: 2017–12
  2. By: Nsenga, Dieu; Nach, Mirada; Khobai, Hlalefang; Moyo, Clement; Phiri, Andrew
    Abstract: The focus of our study is on determining whether unemployment rates in 8 New Industrialized Economies conform to the natural rate hypothesis or the hysteresis hypothesis. To this end, we employ a variety of unit of unit root testing procedures to quarterly data collected between 2002:q1 and 2017:q1. In summary of our findings, conventional unit root tests which neither account for asymmetries or structural breaks produce the most inconclusive results. On the other hand, tests which incorporate structural breaks whilst ignoring asymmetries tends to favour the natural rate hypothesis for our panel of countries. However, simultaneously accounting for asymmetries and unobserved structural breaks seemingly produces the most robust findings and confirms hysteresis in all unemployment rates except for the Asian economies/countries of Thailand and the Philippines.
    Keywords: Natural rate hypothesis; hysteresis hypothesis; Unemployment; unit root tests; Fourier function approximation; Newly Industrialized Economies
    JEL: C22 C51 E24 J60
    Date: 2018–04–18
  3. By: Verico, Kiki
    Abstract: This paper utilizes the timeframe of 2014-2018 as the period with some of the global underperformed macroeconomic indicators. This paper found that in late 2016, Indonesia’s macroeconomic indicators started shown some improvements that keep real and monetary sector’s equilibrium to be stable. This paper observes the external balance of current account, exchange rate stability, inflation and interest rate as well as consumption patterns, saving-investment gap, fiscal discipline & fiscal sustainability. It analyses the government expenditure multiplier, real & monetary sector stability and institutional coordination between fiscal authority, monetary authority, and financial service authority. Real sector improvements which have been rolling since 2017 has significantly contributed to the recent Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability. Technically, if all on the track, this will sustain during the upcoming political year of 2019.
    Keywords: Current Account, Exchange Rate, Economic Growth, Inflation, Interest Rate, Saving-Investment Gap, Real Sector Competitiveness, Fiscal Balance & Monetary Policy
    JEL: E00 E2 E31 E43 E50 E62 F1 F4 H0
    Date: 2018–04–11
  4. By: Ashish Gupta
    Abstract: "Global Financial Crisis" of 2008 and "Demonetization" of 86%of currency notes in circulation in India on 8th November 2016 have yet again emphasized the importance of risk in real estate investments. In good times risks are overlooked by investors but in challenging times importance of risks is realized. These risks assumes even greater significance in an emerging economy like India due to issues of transparency and corporate governance. For investment decision making it is important to understand various risks across the life cycle of an investment including entry, monitoring and exit stages. This studies will develop better understanding of risk factors impacting non listed real estate funds in India. It would evaluate both macroeconomic and fund specific factors across the life cycle of a real estate fund. In absence of reliable data, this study would include primary survey of various real estate professionals associated with real estate fund management in India. We would use factor analysis to identify significant risk factors and sub-factors. Unlike other Asian countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and China, there is hardly any academic research available in India in this area. With fast growth of economy, likely listing of first REIT and increasing transparency real estate sector in India is expected to see substantial flows of capital. This research will contribute towards developing better understanding of risks in Indian real estate for institutional investors, across the life cycle of invested capital.
    Keywords: India; Non-listed fund; Real estate fund; Real estate fund management; Risk Factors
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  5. By: Ho, Sin-Yu
    Abstract: This paper investigates the sources of economic growth in Thailand during the period 1975 to 2014. The results show that, in the long run, human capital and inflation exert a positive and significant impact on output, while foreign direct investment and foreign aid have negative and significant impact on output. The results also show that, in the short run, physical capital, labour and human capital have a positive and significant impact on growth, while the initial level of human capital, government expenditure, the initial level of inflation, foreign direct investment and foreign aid have a negative and significant impact on growth. Based on these findings, we offer some policy implications.
    Keywords: sources of growth; Thailand; ARDL bounds testing
    JEL: C22 O47 O53
    Date: 2018–04
  6. By: Hardiani, Hardiani; Junaidi, Junaidi
    Abstract: This study aims to analyze factors affecting early marriages and to formulate a model of maturing marriage age policy in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Using binary logistic model and interpretive structural modeling, we found that: firstly, factors affecting women’s decision to get married early could come from both individual and their parents charateristics. Secondly, the appropriate model for maturing marriage age policy involved six main elements of the system. Those are objectives, institutions, needs, constraints, community involvement, and assessment benchmarks. We come to the conclusion that maturing marriage age is not only determined by individual characteristics, but also other factors
    Keywords: age at first marriage, early marriage, maturing marriage age, reproductive health
    JEL: Z00 Z13
    Date: 2018–01
  7. By: Narloch, Ulf; Bangalore, Mook
    Abstract: Despite complex interlinkages, insights into the multifaceted relationship between environmental risks and poverty can be gained through an analysis of different risks across space, time and scale within a single context using consistent methods. Combining geo-spatial data on eight environmental risks and household survey data from 2010–2014 for the case study of Vietnam, this paper shows: (i) at the district level, the incidence of poverty is higher in high risk areas, (ii) at the household level, poorer households face higher environmental risks, (iii) for some risks the relationship with household-level consumption varies between rural and urban areas, and (iv) environmental risks explain consumption differences between households, but less so changes over time. While altogether these analyses cannot establish a causal relationship between environmental risks and poverty, they do indicate that Vietnam's poor are disproportionally exposed. Given growing pressures due to climate change, addressing such risks should be a focus of poverty reduction efforts.
    Keywords: climate change; consumption; environment; livelihood; poverty; risks; vulnerability
    JEL: I3 I30 I32 O10 Q50 Q54 R20
    Date: 2018–04–05
  8. By: Mascagni, Giulia
    Abstract: Tax experiments have been gaining momentum in recent years, although this literature dates back several decades.With new developments in methods and data availability, tax experiments have gradually moved away from lab settings and towards the ï¬ eld. This movement from the lab to the ï¬ eld has happened against the background of the ‘credibility revolution’ in applied economics, which has seen more rigorous methods applied to policy relevant questions, and of the availability to researchers of administrative data from tax returns. These developments have allowed signiï¬ cant advances in the experimental literature on tax compliance. This paper reviews this literature, giving particular attention to ï¬ eld experiments using administrative data, but putting them in the broader context of the compliance literature. A particular effort is made to take a global perspective, in a literature that is only recently seeing the emergence of evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia.
    Keywords: Governance,
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Yinqiu Lu; Dmitry Yakovlev
    Abstract: Foreign holdings of Malaysian local currency (LCY) government bonds have increased since the global financial crisis. By exploring the micro-level bank by bank and fund by fund data, we are able to shed light on the key features of the LCY government bonds including their investor base. The data suggest that to gain exposure to the Malaysian credit, holding cash bonds is generally only one part of the strategy of foreign investors and in many cases FX derivatives are involved. The availability of an efficient FX derivatives market could help to attract a wider range of foreign investors and enrich the bond market. Meanwhile, the analysis of the risk related to the foreign ownership ideally could also cover the role of derivatives. The analysis also allows us to conclude that despite the importance of foreign investors, domestic participants, as the core investor base, could help to ensure the stability and proper functioning of the bond market.
    Date: 2018–04–26

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