nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒04‒23
fourteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV By Koshy Mathai; Geoff Gottlieb; Gee Hee Hong; Sung Eun Jung; Jochen M. Schmittmann; Jiangyan Yu
  2. Is it the natural rate or ysteresis hypothesis for unemployment in Newly Industrialized Economies? By Dieu Nsenga; Mirada Nach; Hlalefang Khobai; Clement Moyo; Andrew Phiri
  3. A Democratic Revolution Causes Coup d'etat By Kaori KUSHIMA
  4. Random Coefficient Continuous Systems: Testing for Extreme Sample Path Behaviour By Yubo Tao; Peter C.B. Phillips; Jun Yu
  5. A Probe into the Filipino Migration Culture: What Is There to Learn for Policy Intervention? By Tabuga, Aubrey, D.
  6. Analysis of Regional Trade Agreements Formed with the Participation of ASEAN By Volovik, Nadezhda
  7. Determinants of Commercial Banks' Profitability in Malaysia By Trofimov, Ivan D.; Md. Aris, Nazaria; Ying Ying, Jovena Kho
  8. Shariah-compliant capital asset pricing model: New mathematical modeling By Abdelkader Derbali; Abderrazek Khaldi; Fathi Jouini
  9. The Structure of Origin-Based Social Network and Its Influence on Migration Diffusion: The Case of a Migrant-Sending Village in the Philippines By Tabuga, Aubrey, D.
  10. APEC Agenda on Human Capital Development: Opportunities for Russia By Aliev, Timur; Flegontova, Tatiana; Baeva, Marina; Kuznetsova, A; Manuylov, Ilya; Bondareva, Veronika; Pyzhikov, Nikita
  11. Tracing the Historic Roots of Generalized Trust By Kalischer Wellander, Benjamin; Sanandaji, Tino
  12. Two decades of declining poverty but rising inequality in Laos By Peter Warr; Sitthiroth Rasphone; Jayant Menon
  13. On Maximin Optimization Problems & the Rate of Discount: a Simple Dynamic Programming Argument By Jean-Pierre Drugeon; Thai Ha-Huy; Thi-Do-Hanh Nguyen
  14. How to Solve the Greek Debt Problem By Jeromin Zettelmeyer; Emilios Avgouleas; Barry Eichengreen; Miguel Poiares Maduro; Ugo Panizza; Richard Portes; Beatrice Weder di Mauro; Charles Wyplosz

  1. By: Koshy Mathai; Geoff Gottlieb; Gee Hee Hong; Sung Eun Jung; Jochen M. Schmittmann; Jiangyan Yu
    Abstract: China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.
    Keywords: Trade partners;Global trade;Trade flows;Trade patterns;trade,labor,clmv
    Date: 2016–09–01
  2. By: Dieu Nsenga (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University); Mirada Nach (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University); Hlalefang Khobai (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University); Clement Moyo (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University); Andrew Phiri (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University)
    Abstract: The focus of our study is on determining whether unemployment rates in 8 New Industrialized Economies conform to the natural rate hypothesis or the hysteresis hypothesis. To this end, we employ a variety of unit of unit root testing procedures to quarterly data collected between 2002:q1 and 2017:q1. In summary of our findings, conventional unit root tests which neither account for asymmetries or structural breaks produce the most inconclusive results. On the other hand, tests which incorporate structural breaks whilst ignoring asymmetries tends to favour the natural rate hypothesis for our panel of countries. However, simultaneously accounting for asymmetries and unobserved structural breaks seemingly produces the most robust findings and confirms hysteresis in all unemployment rates except for the Asian economies/countries of Thailand and the Philippines.
    Keywords: Natural rate hypothesis, hysteresis hypothesis, Unemployment, unit root tests, Fourier function approximation, Newly Industrialized Economies.
    JEL: C22 C51 E24 J60
    Date: 2018–04
  3. By: Kaori KUSHIMA (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This study examines how a domestic political regime affects coup d’etat. Recent empirical researches on civil-military relations have found a global decline in military coup, and it has been argued that it can be rare for a democratic country to face coup d’etat following the development of military modernization. However, I suggest that the types of democratization be distinguished, and transitional countries after a democratic revolution face coup d’etat more than other countries after top-down democratization and/or consolidated democratic establishment. The government established by a democratic revolution has the abilities and conditions to exclude military from politics and barred them to their barracks without any mutual agreements. Consequently, the military exercises coup attempts because of the complaint against its own government. This paper analyzes the cases of the Philippines and Indonesia after democratization.
    Keywords: Democartic Revolution, Democratization, the Philippines, Indonesia
    Date: 2018–03
  4. By: Yubo Tao (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Peter C.B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Jun Yu (School of Economics and Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper studies a continuous time dynamic system with a random persistence parameter. The exact discrete time representation is obtained and related to several discrete time random coefficient models currently in the literature. The model distinguishes various forms of unstable and explosive behaviour according to specific regions of the parameter space that open up the potential for testing these forms of extreme behaviour. A two-stage approach that employs realized volatility is proposed for the continuous system estimation, asymptotic theory is developed, and test statistics to identify the different forms of extreme sample path behaviour are proposed. Simulations show that the proposed estimators work well in empirically realistic settings and that the tests have good size and power properties in discriminating characteristics in the data that differ from typical unit root behaviour. The theory is extended to cover models where the random persistence parameter is endogenously determined. An empirical application based on daily real S\&P 500 index data over 1964-2015 reveals strong evidence against parameter constancy after early 1980, which strengthens after July 1997, leading to a long duration of what the model characterizes as extreme behaviour in real stock prices.
    Keywords: Continuous time models, Explosive path, Extreme behaviour, Random coefficient autoregression, Infill asymptotics, Bubble testing
    JEL: C13 C22 G13
    Date: 2017–12
  5. By: Tabuga, Aubrey, D.
    Abstract: For many migrant workers, labor migration is not just a one-time, temporary means of livelihood, it has become the way of life. Among the 1.4 million land-based migrants in 2015, two-thirds comprise of re-hires. The number of new hires has been increasing as well. In fact, the trend of migrant deployment shows a continuous upward trend except during periods of crises and tight government control. From a public policy standpoint, this requires constant vigilance and informed decisionmaking with regard to designing policies and programs that look after the welfare of migrant workers. Some argue that while the government administers the deployment and implement strategies to promote the welfare of migrant workers, it also needs to design a more comprehensive long-term thrust for labor migration. The non-negligible number of cases of abuse, maltreatment, and crimes committed against Filipino migrant workers calls for a more defined policy that is less dependent on labor migration and more toward developing local job opportunities. This paper provides a deeper understanding of the migration motivations and intentions of Filipinos. Get a closer look at the migration intentions of individuals from a high-emigration rural village in the Philippines and some policy recommendations to address migration issues in this paper.
    Keywords: labor migration, Philippines, migration intentions, migration networks, migration-related survey data
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Volovik, Nadezhda (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Regional economic integration has proved itself in the world practice as a successful model of strategic development. Liberalization of customs tariffs, as well as unification and removal of non-tariff restrictions within the integration associations are carried out faster than in the whole world trading system. At present, 419 regional trade agreements (RTS) have been signed, of which more than half are agreements on free trade zones (FTAs). In the context of a certain decrease in the intensity of Russia's interaction with Western partners, the escalation of activity in the Asia-Pacific region (the most dynamically growing world region) acquires special significance for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEC). A key area of ??international cooperation for the EEMA is the implementation of the formats of modern comprehensive agreements on free trade zones. The ASEAN countries have rich experience in concluding regional trade agreements. In total, they concluded more than 80 bilateral and multilateral RTAs. Thus, currently there are multilateral RTAs (the so-called ASEAN 1) ASEAN-China, ASEAN-India, ASEAN-the Republic of Korea and ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand.
    Date: 2018–03
  7. By: Trofimov, Ivan D.; Md. Aris, Nazaria; Ying Ying, Jovena Kho
    Abstract: This study aims to examine the relationship between non-performing loans (NPLs) and commercial banks' performance in Malaysia, alongside other factors. It considers the effect of NPLs, cost efficiency and bank size on commercial banks' profitability by using panel data regression (Pooled OLS model), covering the period of 2010-2015. The findings of the study show that NPLs and cost efficiency have a significant negative relationship with commercial banks' performances in Malaysia. On the other hand, bank size is found to have a significant positive relation with commercial banks' performances in Malaysia. Several policy and strategic implications are outlined: the continuing need to manage credit risk, reduction of non-core lending activities, improvement of systems transparency, cost control, and more lenient competition and anti-trust policies.
    Keywords: Profitability, non-performing loans, banks
    JEL: C23 G21 G28
    Date: 2018–03–16
  8. By: Abdelkader Derbali (Institut Supérieur de Gestion Sousse); Abderrazek Khaldi (Université de Sousse); Fathi Jouini (Université de Sousse)
    Abstract: The main objective of our paper is to propose a novel approach in pricing Islamic financial assets in accordance to shariah, advocated by contemporary investment theories of Markowitz's Mean-Variance Analysis and CAPM. The shariah-compliant Capital Asset Pricing Model that we developed with a few changing's of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model is integrating zakat, purification of return and exclusion of short sales. Then, we utilize a sample composed of 10 shariah-compliant public listed companies in Bursa Malaysia. The empirical results find that the proposed Islamic CAPM is appropriate and applicable in investigating the linkage amongst risk and return in the Islamic stock market. Our investigation contributes to existing body of knowledge by presenting an algorithm and mathematical modelling of the shariah-compliant CAPM which has been lacking in the literature of Islamic finance.
    Keywords: zakat,Islamic finance,purification,CAPM,shariah
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Tabuga, Aubrey, D.
    Abstract: While economic forces drive much of international migration, social factors are known to significantly facilitate movement. By providing information and other resources, networks reduce the cost and risk associated with international migration. The influence of migration networks, however, remains a black box that needs to be unpacked simply because these have been treated in the past mostly as unidimensional. In reality, however, networks do not only vary in type but also have structures. This study seeks to examine the structure of migration networks in a migrant-sending village in the Philippines. It also aims to relate this structure to the diffusion of migration behavior in the village over time through a socio-historical lens--an unconventional approach in the analysis of international migration perpetuation. Results show that the density of the kinship and friendship ties and the network position of pioneer migrants in the village affect the current distribution of migration behavior in the area. Know more about the factors affecting international migration structures in the Philippines through this paper.
    Keywords: Philippines, migration networks, international migration, network structure, network analysis, graph theory
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Aliev, Timur (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Flegontova, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Baeva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kuznetsova, A (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Manuylov, Ilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Bondareva, Veronika (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pyzhikov, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper reviews APEC's education agenda, current state of education market in Asia-Pacific as well as Russia’s involvement in this market. It concludes with the set of recommendations which seek to elaborate how Russia can improve its competitiveness on the said market, including through its participation in APEC activities.
    Date: 2018–03
  11. By: Kalischer Wellander, Benjamin; Sanandaji, Tino (Institute for Economic and Business History Research)
    Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on the historic roots of trust, with a particular focus on Scandinavia. While there are many surveys on various aspects of trust, none reviews the growing literature on the historic roots of trust. One of the most striking facts is the robust cross-country differences in trust. The share of the population who generally trusts others ranges between 60-70 percent in Scandinavian countries and as low as 3-4 percent in countries such as Colombia and the Philippines. The key problem in disentangling the historic roots of trust is that systematic measurements do not go back far enough, as trust was first systematically measured in 1942 in the United States. The lack of historic data has in recent years led scholars to develop other methods to indirectly trace historic roots, such as comparing the trust rates of decedents of immigrants based on the arrival year of their ancestors. This new line of research suggests that the roots of trust are deep and that high Scandinavian trust emerged prior to the welfare state.
    Keywords: Trust; Social capital; economic development
    JEL: N10 Z13
    Date: 2018–03–27
  12. By: Peter Warr; Sitthiroth Rasphone; Jayant Menon
    Abstract: Over the past two decades consumption inequality has risen within Laos, while absolute poverty incidence halved. The estimated Gini coefficient of private household expenditures per person rose from 0.311 to 0.364. This increase in the sample-based estimate of inequality was statistically significant and occurred in all regions, in both rural and urban areas and among all major ethnic, educational and sectoral employment categories. Within-group increases in inequality dominated between-group changes, but official policy largely overlooks this point, focusing on reducing inequality between, rather than within major groups. This assessment argues that economic inequality should become a more pressing policy concern.
    Keywords: Expenditure inequality; poverty reduction; Gini coefficient; Laos
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Jean-Pierre Drugeon (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Thai Ha-Huy (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne); Thi-Do-Hanh Nguyen (Vietnam Maritime University)
    Abstract: This article establishes a dynamic programming argument for a maximin optimization problem where the agent completes a minimization over a set of discount rates. Even though the consideration of a maximin criterion results in a program that is not convex and not stationary over time, it is proved that a careful reference to extended dynamic programming principles and a maxmin functional equation however allows for circumventing these difficulties and recovering an optimal sequence that is time consistent. This in its turn brings about a stationary dynamic programming argument.
    Keywords: maximin principle,non-convexities,value fun-ion,policy fun-ion,supermodularity
    Date: 2018–04
  14. By: Jeromin Zettelmeyer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Emilios Avgouleas (University of Edinburgh); Barry Eichengreen (University of California, Berkeley); Miguel Poiares Maduro (European University Institute, Florence); Ugo Panizza (Graduate Institute, Geneva); Richard Portes (London Business School); Beatrice Weder di Mauro (INSEAD, Singapore); Charles Wyplosz (Graduate Institute, Geneva)
    Abstract: Greece’s debt currently stands at close to €330 billion, over 180 percent of GDP, with almost 70 percent owed to European official creditors. The fact that Greece’s public debts must be restructured is by now widely accepted. What remains controversial, however, is the extent of debt relief needed to make Greece’s debt sustainable. This Policy Brief argues that the debt relief measures outlined by the Eurogroup will not be sufficient to restore the sustainability of Greece’s debt. At the same time it shows that Greece’s debt sustainability can in fact be restored without aggravating moral hazard—i.e., encouraging future governments in Greece and elsewhere in the euro area to take risks in the belief that they will be bailed out—and within the framework of EU law, in particular Article 125 of the Lisbon Treaty, which prohibits EU members from assuming liability for the debts of other members. It concludes that only conditional face value debt relief, in combination with the measures already considered by the Eurogroup, would restore Greece’s debt sustainability with reasonable confidence. Furthermore, if the debt relief is structured in a way that creates incentives for additional fiscal adjustment, as proposed in this Brief, the amount of face value debt relief required could be modest—on the order of 10 to 15 percent of the outstanding official debt.
    Date: 2018–10

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