nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒02‒19
twenty-one papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Estimating the Benefit of Document-Handling Process Improvement for Seaport Reliability: The Case of Indonesia By Yusuf Sofiyandi; Muhammad Halley Yudhistira
  2. Perception of capital, profit and dividends affect the stock purchase intention in Indonesia public company By Muda, Iskandar
  3. Land-use change and livelihoods of non-farm households: The role of income from employment in oil palm and rubber in rural Indonesia By Bou Dib, Jonida; Krishna, Vijesh; Alamsyah, Zulkifli; Qaim, Matin
  4. Indonesian South-South Cooperation: Stepping Up the Institution and Strategy for Indonesias Development Assistance By Aditya Alta; Rhapsagita Malist Pamasiwi
  5. How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move? By Keddad, Benjamin
  6. Estimating infrastructure financing needs in Asia-Pacific least developed countries, landlocked developing countries and small island developing States By Candice Branchoux; Lin Fang; Yusuke Tateno
  7. War, migration and the origins of the Thai sex industry By Brodeur, Abel; Lekfuangfu, Warn N.; Zylberberg, Yanos
  8. The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions By Samuel Bazzi; Matthew Gudgeon
  9. Performance and Inequality in Health: A Comparison of Child and Maternal Health across Asia By Bénédicte H. Apouey; Jacques Silber
  10. Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, and Data Imputation: A Review of Poverty Measurement Methods for Data-Scarce Environments By Dang, Hai-Anh; Jolliffe, Dean; Carletto, Calogero
  11. Obstacles to productivity in Asia and Pacific region: finance reigns By Filipe Lage de Sousa
  12. "Sex in marriage is a divine gift": For whom ? Evidence from the Manila contraceptive ban By Christelle Dumas; Arnaud Lefranc
  13. Sustainable Development Goal 5: How Does the Philippines Fare on Gender Equality? By David, Clarissa C.; Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Vizmanos, Jana Flor V.
  14. FDI, Global Value Chains, and Local Sourcing in Developing Countries By Vito Amendolagine; Andrea Presbitero; Roberta Rabellotti; Marco Sanfilippo; Adnan Seric
  15. Fostering productivity in the rural and agricultural sector for inclusive growth and sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific Abstract: By Upali Wickramasinghe
  16. Strengthening the capacities of Asia and the Pacific to protect workers against unemployment By John Carter
  17. Issues paper on tax policy and public expenditure management in Asia and the Pacific By Zheng Jian; Alberto Isgut
  18. Asia-Pacific’s experience with national systems of TVET By Jenny Grainger; Liz Bowen-Clewley; Sarah Maclean
  19. Shale oil revolution: Implications for oil dependent countries By Afees A. Salisu; Lateef O. Akanni
  20. On the Investigation of Factors Effecting International Tourist Arrivals to Cambodian Market: A Static and Dynamic Gravity Approach By Chhorn, Theara
  21. Credit Booms—Is China Different? By Sally Chen; Joong Shik Kang

  1. By: Yusuf Sofiyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Muhammad Halley Yudhistira (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia)
    Abstract: Low level of seaport reliability is one of the crucial problems amidst the increasing trend of seaborne trade in Indonesia. Main seaports in Indonesia are suffering because of longer dwelling time relative to other international seaports in South East Asian countries partly due to poor administrative process. This paper examines the Indonesian sea transport market focusing on measuring the benefit of seaport service reliability improvement in terms of handling the seaborne trade documents. Using open-ended question of contingent valuation method, our estimates show a moderate benefit, a cost reduction of the administrative process ranging from US$10.8–90.3 per TEU for each day. The cost reduction is even higher for the subsample of importing firms, indicating that the improvement of document-handling plays a more crucial role in accelerating the import activities in Indonesia.
    Keywords: Seaborne Trade — Seaport Reliability — Document-Handling Process — Cost Saving — Indonesia
    JEL: O18 P25 R11
    Date: 2018–01
  2. By: Muda, Iskandar
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the influence perception of Capital Gains and Dividends on Stock Purchase Intention in Indonesian companies. Variables used in this research are the capital, profit and dividends (independent variables) and Stock Purchase Intention (dependent variable) and to show their relationship, it was used multiple linear regression. This research included Manufacturing Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and there were taken into account a number of 38 societies Data of this research are secondary data, obtained from the financial statements of the investigated companies published in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results showed that simultaneous independent variables have a significant influence on the capital structure, while partially effect on the Capital Shares Purchase Intentions. It was also shown that Profit and Dividends do not affect the Stock Purchase Intention
    Keywords: Capital; Earnings; Dividend; Share Purchase Intention and Indonesian companies
    JEL: D53
    Date: 2017–05
  3. By: Bou Dib, Jonida; Krishna, Vijesh; Alamsyah, Zulkifli; Qaim, Matin
    Abstract: Many tropical regions are experiencing massive land-use change that is often characterized by an expansion of oil palm at the expense of forests and more traditional forms of agricultural cropping. While implications of such land-use change for the environment and for local farm households were examined in previous research, possible effects on the livelihoods of non-farm households are not yet well understood. This study analyzes the role of different types of agricultural and non-agricultural employment income for non-farm households in rural Jambi, one of the hotspot regions of Indonesia's recent oil palm boom. Data from a recent survey show that employment in rubber and oil palm are important livelihood components for non-farm households. Employment in oil palm is more lucrative than employment in rubber, so involvement in the oil palm sector as a laborer is positively associated with total household income. Regression models show that whether or not a household works in oil palm is largely determined by factors related to migration background, ethnicity, and the size of the village area grown with this crop. These results suggest that further expansion of the oil palm area will likely benefit non-farm households through gains in employment income. As non-farm households belong to the poorest segments of the rural population, these benefits should not be ignored when designing policies towards sustainable land use.
    Keywords: oil palm,rubber,non-farm households,labor markets,sharecropping,income
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Aditya Alta (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Rhapsagita Malist Pamasiwi (USIP)
    Abstract: This paper reviews Indonesia’s South-South Cooperation (SSC) efforts with an aim of providing policy recommendations to improve Indonesia’s management and implementation of its development assistance. The National Coordination Team on South-South Cooperation (NCT-SSC)—the current national institution mandated with SSC in Indonesia—is suffering from fundamental constraints in terms of coordination, organization, and institutionalization. Furthermore, the efforts to further the institutionalization by establishing a single agency for SSC have been progressing very slowly due to a lack of firm legal basis on one hand, and a proclivity for practical, business-as-usual approach on the other. To improve the institution and programming of Indonesian development assistance, a number of recommendations are suggested. First, a strong legal basis through the issuance of a Presidential Regulation on SSC management should be pushed to serve as a precursor to the single agency. Second, better public communication and outreach should be conducted to promote the SSC programs. Adequate monitoring and evaluation system should also be developed to measure program impacts. Moreover, Indonesia needs to have a strategy to promote the participation of business sector in SSC, such as by promoting firms’ participation as contractor or a source of fund for projects in beneficiary countries. Finally, expertise in specific fields, such as agriculture and tsunami and earthquake risk management, should be promoted as a niche branding of Indonesia’s assistance.
    Keywords: South-South Cooperation — Development Cooperation — Development Assistance
    JEL: F50 H11 O19
    Date: 2018–01
  5. By: Keddad, Benjamin
    Abstract: This paper investigates the degree and the nature of exchange rate co-movements between the Renminbi and a set of seven East Asian currencies by estimating Markov switching models with regime-dependent correlations and time-varying transition probabilities. These models have several advantages. First, exchange rate co-movements can vary across different depreciation and appreciation regimes. Second, the Renminbi can act as a transition variable that provides information regarding how the exchange rates evolve over time. After controlling for global effects and exchange market pressures, the results yield robust evidence of the Renminbi's rising role in East Asia as a significant factor in currency fluctuations. A key result is that regional currencies tend to overreact when the Renminbi depreciates and underreact when it appreciates, suggesting that East Asian economies are not willing to allow their currencies to substantially appreciate against the Chinese currency. Finally, trade transactions and competition as well as financial flows demonstrate significant explanatory power regarding currency movements against the Renminbi -- particularly during episodes of smaller exchange rate fluctuations.
    Keywords: Exchange Rates ; East Asia ; Renminbi Impact ; Markov Switching Models ; Asymmetric Co-movements ; Time-Varying Transition Probabilities
    JEL: F31 F41 F42
    Date: 2016–12
  6. By: Candice Branchoux; Lin Fang; Yusuke Tateno (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP)
    Abstract: This paper develops a framework to estimate infrastructure financing needs of the Asia-Pacific least developed countries (LDCs), landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS) by 2030. The framework takes into account the financing needs to close existing infrastructure gaps, keep up with growing demands for new infrastructure, maintain existing infrastructure and mitigate the vulnerability of infrastructure to climate-related risks. Based on a panel of 71 developing economies from 1990 to 2015 and the application of unit costs to the level of physical infrastructure stock projected to 2030, the required resources are estimated to amount to 7.6% of GDP per annum on weighted average, which exceeds current levels of infrastructure funding of 5-7% of GDP. This indicates that existing sources of financing are insufficient to meet the large and growing needs of infrastructure financing in these economies. The paper finds that a large proportion of financing needs in LDCs and SIDS arises from the current infrastructure shortages, particularly in the transport and the energy sector, implying that provision of universal access to basic infrastructure services would require large outlays of resources. Results also suggest that LLDCs and some SIDS require over one-third of their spending to be allocated to maintenance and replacement of existing assets, while those in low-lying coastal areas face substantial long-run costs in improving infrastructure to mitigate climate change and protecting it against loss and damages caused by extreme weather events.
  7. By: Brodeur, Abel; Lekfuangfu, Warn N.; Zylberberg, Yanos
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants behind the spatial distribution of the sex industry in Thailand. We relate the development of the sex industry to an early temporary demand shock, i.e., U.S. military presence during the Vietnam War. Comparing the surroundings of Thai military bases used by the U.S. army to districts close to unused Thai bases, we find that there are currently 5 times more commercial sex workers in districts near former U.S. bases. The development of the sex industry is also explained by a high price elasticity of supply due to female migration from regions affected by an agricultural crisis. Finally, we study a consequence induced by the large numbers of sex workers in few red-light districts: the HIV outbreak in the early 1990s
    JEL: I28 N15 O17 O18
    Date: 2017–07–01
  8. By: Samuel Bazzi (Boston University, CEPR, BREAD); Matthew Gudgeon (Boston University)
    Abstract: Policymakers in diverse countries face the persistent challenge of managing ethnic divisions. We argue that redrawing subnational political boundaries can fundamentally reshape these divisions. We use a natural policy experiment in Indonesia to show that changes in the political relevance of ethnic divisions have significant effects on conflict in the short- to medium-run. While redistricting along group lines can increase social stability, these gains are undone and even reversed in newly polarized units. Electoral democracy further amplifies these effects given the large returns to initial control of newly created local governments in settings with ethnic favoritism. Overall, our findings show that the ethnic divisions underlying widely-used diversity measures are neither fixed nor exogenous and instead depend on the political boundaries within which groups are organized. These results illustrate the promise and pitfalls of redistricting policy in diverse countries where it is not feasible for each group to have its own administrative unit.
    Keywords: Conflict, Decentralization, Ethnic Divisions, Polarization, Political Boundaries
    JEL: D72 D74 H41 H77 O13 Q34
    Date: 2017–12
  9. By: Bénédicte H. Apouey (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Jacques Silber (Bar-Ilan University [Israël])
    Abstract: A country's performance in health attainment refers to both its achievement (level) and its improvement (evolution) in the health domain. Studies on performance generally measure health attainment using the average health level of the population, and quantify health improvement employing the change in attainment over time. However this approach is flawed because the change in attainment does not satisfy good properties, on the one hand, and because health attainment should not only account for the average health level, but also for disparities in health in the population, on the other hand. We propose a solution to the first limitation by following the lead of Kakwani (1993), who uses achievement and improvement measures which are based on attainment measures and which satisfy important properties. For the second limitation, we extend the work of Kakwani and propose new definitions of attainment that account for the average health level but also for health inequalities in the population. Specifically, we focus on overall and social health inequalities and on the health of the poor. By including these new attainment variables into Kakwani's indices, we generate new classes of achievement and improvement indices. Using data on 11 low and middle-income Asian countries in the twenty-first century, we highlight that child and maternal health have generally improved in recent decades, due to both an increase in the average health level and a decrease in inequalities.
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Dang, Hai-Anh; Jolliffe, Dean; Carletto, Calogero
    Abstract: We offer a review of methods that have been employed to provide poverty estimates of poverty in contexts where household consumption data are unavailable or missing. These contexts range from completely missing and partially missing consumption data in cross sectional household surveys, to missing panel household data. We focus on methods that aim to compare trends and dynamic patterns of poverty outcomes over time. We present the various existing methods under a common framework, with pedagogical discussion on the intuition. Empirical illustrations are provided using several rounds of household survey data from Vietnam. Furthermore, we also offer a practical guide with detailed instructions on computer programs that can be used to implement the reviewed techniques.
    Keywords: poverty,mobility,imputation,consumption,wealth index,synthetic panels,household survey
    JEL: C15 I32 O15
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Filipe Lage de Sousa (Fluminense Federal University - Brazil)
    Abstract: Firms face difference obstacles for their development. This paper investigates which obstacle is the largest to firms’ productivity using micro-level data for the Asia and Pacific region. Access to finance shows the most robust result in our investigation, being stronger for SMEs. Removing SMEs’ credit constraints seem to be a powerful tool to promote economic growth in the region, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
  12. By: Christelle Dumas (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Arnaud Lefranc (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We analyze the tradeoff between child quantity and quality in developing countries by estimating the effect of family size on child education in urban Philippines. To isolate exogenous changes in family size, we exploit a policy shock: in the late 1990s, the mayor of Manila enacted a municipal ban on modern contraceptives. Since other comparable cities in the Manila metropolitan area were not affected by the ban, this allows us to implement a difference-in-difference estimation of the effect of family size. We also exploit the fact that older mothers were less likely to become pregnant during the ban. Our results indicate that the contraceptive ban led to a significant increase in family size. They also provide evidence of a quality-quantity tradeoff: increased family size led to a sizable decrease in school performance.
    Keywords: Philippines,quantity-quality tradeoff,family size,human capital investment,fertility
    Date: 2016
  13. By: David, Clarissa C.; Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Vizmanos, Jana Flor V.
    Abstract: The global goal to attain gender equality, including ending all forms of discrimination against women and girls, and ensuring their safety, is central to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Its attainment means that every person, regardless of sex, is empowered to reach their full potential. This entails having both men and women given equal opportunities to education, paid employment, and real decisionmaking power whether in private or public sectors. This paper discusses how the country fares in several gender-related indicators that can be used to monitor progress toward gender equality and women empowerment. It provides an overview of the current situation in areas such as equality of human capabilities, equality of economic opportunity, equality in political voice and leadership, and the safety of women and girls. The paper also identifies priorities for public policy while seeking new directions in addressing several transformational issues to attain gender equality and women empowerment in the country.
    Keywords: gender, Philippines, , gender equality, equality of human capabilities, women’s economic empowerment, women’s political voice and leadership, violence against women and girls
    Date: 2017
  14. By: Vito Amendolagine; Andrea Presbitero; Roberta Rabellotti; Marco Sanfilippo; Adnan Seric
    Abstract: The local sourcing of intermediate products is one the main channels for foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers. This paper investigates whether and how participation and positioning in the global value chains (GVCs) of host countries is associated to local sourcing by foreign investors. Matching two firm-level data sets of 19 Sub-Saharan African countries and Vietnam to country-sector level measures of GVC involvement, we find that more intense GVC participation and upstream specialization are associated to a higher share of inputs sourced locally by foreign investors. These effects are larger in countries with stronger rule of law and better education.
    Date: 2017–12–21
  15. By: Upali Wickramasinghe (Senior International Consultant, FAO-Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific)
  16. By: John Carter (
  17. By: Zheng Jian (Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division, ESCAP); Alberto Isgut (Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, ESCAP)
    Keywords: Fiscal policy, public expenditure, revenues, taxation
    JEL: E62 H20 H50
  18. By: Jenny Grainger; Liz Bowen-Clewley; Sarah Maclean
  19. By: Afees A. Salisu; Lateef O. Akanni (Department of Economics, University of Lagos,Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently announces that the explosive increases in the United States oil output, particularly from shale oil, would make the country become world’s top oil producer and eventually exporter ahead of Saudi Arabia and Asia in the coming years. Motivated by this projection, we therefore examine the implications of the US shale oil on oil exports of OPEC and selected non-OPEC countries using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach. Our results reveal that the US oil supply shocks particularly those due to shale oil are critical in the output and supply decisions of OPEC and major non-OPEC oil exporters. Underestimating the potential consequences of US overtaken the current world oil giants and failure to put in place critical structural shifts by these countries, especially alternative revenue sources, pose a potential threat to their growth prospects.
    Keywords: Shale Oil, Crude Oil, Oil Supply Shocks, OPEC, Shale Revolution
    JEL: E31 E32 Q31 Q43
    Date: 2018–02
  20. By: Chhorn, Theara
    Abstract: The paper investigates factors influencing international tourist arrivals into the Cambodian market during the period of 1995 to 2015, covered 32 cross-sectional countries by adopting a static and dynamic gravity approach with respect to fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) and the GMM estimator of Arellano and Bond (1991). Our analysis shows that mostly economic factors such as travel cost, GDP per capita and population size are the main sources in attracting international tourist arrivals. The country specific dummy variables are found to be associated with the respects to its significant level. The empirical results demonstrate that one and two step GMM with robust standard errors produces better outcomes and improves the estimated accuracy over a static approach.
    Keywords: Gravity Model, International Tourist Arrivals, Arellano and Bond (1991), GMM, Fixed and Random Effect, Cambodia
    JEL: C1 C3 C33 C50 C82 Z0 Z00
    Date: 2017–04–24
  21. By: Sally Chen; Joong Shik Kang
    Abstract: Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom carries risks. International experience suggests that China’s credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory, with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment and/or a marked growth slowdown. Several China-specific factors—high savings, current account surplus, small external debt, and various policy buffers—can help mitigate near-term risks of a disruptive adjustment and buy time to address risks. But, if the risks are left unaddressed, these mitigating factors will likely not eliminate the eventual adjustment, but make the boom larger and last longer. Hence, decisive policy action is needed to deflate the credit boom safely.
    Keywords: Financial crises;Financial cycles;Banking crises;Asia and Pacific;credit gap, debt overhang, sustainable growth, General
    Date: 2018–01–05

This nep-sea issue is ©2018 by Kavita Iyengar. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.