nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2018‒02‒05
twenty-two papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. School Participation of Children with Disability: The Case of San Remigio and Mandaue City, Cebu, Philippines By Mina, Christian D.; Agbon, Adrian D.
  2. Resource urbanisms: Asia’s divergent city models of Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Hong Kong By Rode, Philipp; Gomes, Alexandra; Adeel, Muhammad; Sajjad, Fizzah; McArthur, Jenny; Alshalfan, Sharifa; Schwinger, Peter; Tunas, Devisari; Lange, Christiane; Montagne, Clemence; Hertog, Steffen; Koch, Andreas; Murshed, Syed Monjur; Wendel, Jochen; Duval, Alice
  3. Decentralization and Health in the Philippines: A Systematic Review of Empirical Evidences By Ortiz, Danica Aisa P.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Tam, Zhandra C.
  4. Developing Green GDP Accounting for Thai Agricultural Sector Using the Economic Input Output - Life Cycle Assessment to Assess Green Growth By Attavanich, Witsanu; Mungkung, Rattanawan; Mahathanaseth, Itthipong; Sanglestsawai, Santi; Jirajari, Athiwatr
  5. Employment Profile of Women with Disabilities in San Remigio and Mandaue City, Cebu, Philippines By Mina, Christian D.
  6. L’Indochine française du XXIe-XXe siècle – politique et religions By Thu-Trang Vuong; Quan-Hoang Vuong
  7. Assessing Hospital Performance in Indonesia: An Application of Frontier Analysis Techniques By Firdaus Hafidz; Tim Ensor; Sandy Tubeuf
  8. Inequality, ethnicity, and social cohesion By McDoom, Omar Shahabudin
  9. Land use, forest preservation and biodiversity in Asia By Halkos, George; Managi, Shunsuke
  10. Coal, Renewable, or Nuclear? A Real Options Approach to Energy Investments in the Philippines By Agaton, Casper
  11. Cambodia Macroeconomic Impacts of Public Consumption on Education: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach By Ear Sothy; Sim Sokcheng; Khiev Pirom
  12. Assessment of Livelihood Success and Implementation Issues on the Sustainable Livelihood Program of the DSWD By Ballesteros, Marife M.; Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C.; Ancheta, Jenica; Corpus, John Paul
  13. Designing the Fiscal Features of a Federal Form of Government: Autonomy, Accountability, and Equity Considerations By Manasan, Rosario G.
  14. Towards urban growth analytics for Yangon: a comparative information base for strategic spatial development By Heeckt, Catarina; Gomes, Alexandra; Ney, David; Phanthuwongpakdee, Nuttavikhom; Sabrié, Marion
  15. Gunnar Myrdal and Asian Drama in Context By Kanbur, Ravi
  16. Output Costs of Currency Crises: Shocks, Policies and Cycles By Nakatani, Ryota
  17. Economic corridors and regional development: The Malaysian experience By Prema-chandra Athukorala; Suresh Narayanan
  18. Cultural Preferences in International Trade: Evidence from the Globalization of Korean Pop Culture By Chang, Pao-Li; Lee, Iona Hyojung
  19. Does “America First” Help America? The Impact of Country Image on Exports and Welfare By Chang, Pao-Li; Fujii, Tomoki; Jin, Wei
  20. Analisis Keuntungan Budidaya Tanaman Penghasil Zat Pemanis (gula) Bit (Beta vulgaris, L) Secara Pertanian Organik By Afifi, Tubagus
  21. The GATT/WTO Welfare Effects: 1950-2015 By Chang, Pao-Li; Jin, Wei
  22. The Role of Macroeconomic, Policy, and Forecaster Uncertainty in Forecast Dispersion By Li, You; Tay, Anthony

  1. By: Mina, Christian D.; Agbon, Adrian D.
    Abstract: In the Philippines, women and children with disabilities were found to have lower literacy and school participation rates, and generally have lower educational attainment, than male persons with disability (PWDs) and nondisabled children. This paper is part of the joint project of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies and the Institute of Developing Economies. It looked into the school participation of children with disability in Mandaue City and San Remigio, Cebu, Philippines. Using survey data (collected involving PWD enumerators) and key informant interviews with various stakeholders, the study found that school participation among PWD children is generally low in both study sites. Possible reasons for low school participation are: type and severity of impairment, distance of school (especially in rural area, San Remigio), household size, and income. Some recommendations include making sure that assistive devices given to PWD children match their needs, possible learning livelihood and basic health care modules/trainings for parents, exploring ways to train more teachers (including the Alternative Learning System or ALS) to handle children with disabilities, and possible local government unit partnerships to provide venues for the ALS. Lastly, the study recommends pushing for more awareness to make schools not just "child friendly" but also "PWD friendly".
    Keywords: Philippines, school participation, person with disability, PWD, San Remigio, PWD children, Mandaue City, Cebu City
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Rode, Philipp; Gomes, Alexandra; Adeel, Muhammad; Sajjad, Fizzah; McArthur, Jenny; Alshalfan, Sharifa; Schwinger, Peter; Tunas, Devisari; Lange, Christiane; Montagne, Clemence; Hertog, Steffen; Koch, Andreas; Murshed, Syed Monjur; Wendel, Jochen; Duval, Alice
    Abstract: This report presents the key findings of the Resource Urbanisms project that LSE Cities at the London School of Economics and Political Science led between 2015 and 2017. This research, supported by the Kuwait Programme at the LSE Middle East Centre investigated questions of urban form, geography and sustainability in Kuwait and the Gulf States as part of a broader comparative analysis of divergent forms of urban growth in Asia. Given the distinct patterns of urban development, and the central role of land availability and natural resources, particularly oil, in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, this research focused on two natural resources, land and energy, and explored their relationships with urban form, transport and housing. It analysed these relationships through a comparative case study approach focusing on the city of Kuwait and Abu Dhabi in the GCC, and Hong Kong and Singapore in East Asia. Both the GCC and East Asian case studies are cities with similar income levels, but exhibit contrasting forms of urban development. More importantly, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi are endowed with vast amounts of natural resources, while Hong Kong and Singapore possess limited natural resources, making them useful and contrasting cases for comparative purposes. The research had four main objectives: first, it analysed the models of urban development that have emerged in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong and Singapore through an inter-urban and intra-urban comparison. Second, it compared the GCC models of urbanisation (Kuwait and Abu Dhabi) with the contrasting forms of development in Hong Kong and Singapore. Third, it provided fresh evidence on the relationship between the built environment, land availability and energy costs, with a particular focus on transport and urban form as well as housing and urban morphology. Finally, it sought to better understand the dynamics between the availability and costs of resources, government interventions, urban form and infrastructure, and environmental outcomes...
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–11
  3. By: Ortiz, Danica Aisa P.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Tam, Zhandra C.
    Abstract: This study provides a systematic review and summary of the extant knowledge on the impacts of decentralization on health in the Philippines. Despite the country's twenty-five years of experience in decentralization, little is known about the topic. Overall, our survey shows that the existing scholarship on the impact of decentralization on health in the country is characteristically thin and with varying degree of methodological rigor. The limited available evidences point to some indication of positive impacts of decentralization on increasing government health expenditures and on improving health outcomes.
    Keywords: Philippines, health, decentralization
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Attavanich, Witsanu; Mungkung, Rattanawan; Mahathanaseth, Itthipong; Sanglestsawai, Santi; Jirajari, Athiwatr
    Abstract: There is no indicator measuring Thailand’s green growth by valuing the resource degradation and environmental damage costs. This article aims to estimate Thailand’s green gross domestic (GDP) that takes into account environmental damage costs with the detailed analysis on the agricultural sector using the Economic Input Output - Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) approach. The representative product in each sector was selected based on the available life cycle inventory data, economic values and their magnitude of impacts. Here we find that oil palm cultivation (Sector 011 in the economic input-output table), fibre crops (Sector 013), rice cultivation using chemicals (Sector 001), coffee-tea-cocao (Sector 015), and coconut growing (Sector 010), respectively, generated the highest environmental damage value. This study revealed that the total environmental damage costs of agricultural products was $22.05 million per year accounting for only 0.1003 percent of total GDP in agricultural sector while the total environmental damage cost from all sectors is equal to $36,950.79 million accounting for 14.58 of total GDP.
    Keywords: Green GDP, EIO-LCA, Life Cycle Assessment, Economic Input Output, Agricultural Sector, Green Growth
    JEL: O1 O13 Q51 Q56
    Date: 2016–11
  5. By: Mina, Christian D.
    Abstract: Persons with disability (PWDs) in developing countries, in general, have lower employment rates, as noted in empirical studies (e.g., Eide et al. 2004; Zaidi and Burchardt 2005; Meyer and Mok 2008). PWDs who are women tend to have much lower employment outcomes. In the Philippines, not even half (36%) of the surveyed PWD women in selected cities in Metro Manila and Rosario, Batangas reported that they were engaged in an economic activity (Tabuga and Mina 2011). The most typical jobs of these few employed PWD women were house helpers, vendors, laundresses, and farmers/farm helpers. This study, an off-shoot of the third joint project of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies and Institute of Developing Economies, looked at the employment profile of adult women with disability in San Remigio and Mandaue City in Cebu, Philippines. Using the primary data collected through survey (involving PWD enumerators) and key informant interviews with various stakeholders, the study found that both the rate and the quality of employment of PWD women in the study sites were generally low. These low employment outcomes of the respondents could be attributed to the following factors: low level of education, lack of training experience, lack of employment opportunities within a community, functioning limitations and low access to assistive devices and/or services, physical barriers and lack of PWD-friendly facilities, and low awareness on relevant policies and programs. Some of the study's recommendations include exploring ways on how to: intensify human capital investment among PWDs, entice employers to provide opportunities to PWDs, provide the necessary assistive devices/services to the needy PWDs, and make public infrastructure more PWD-friendly, among others.
    Keywords: Philippines, employment, labor force participation, person with disability, PWD, adult women, Mandaue City, San Remigio, Cebu
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Thu-Trang Vuong; Quan-Hoang Vuong
    Abstract: La colonisation suivie du règne communiste a laissé sa marque sur l’ancienne Indochine française, constituée des trois pays Vietnam, Laos et Cambodge. Cet article vise à analyser la relation étroite entre des bouleversements politiques de la fin XIXe-début XXe siècle et l’évolution des institutions religieuses en Indochine, pour conclure sur l’interaction et l’influence réciproque entre politique et religieux.
    Keywords: économie politique; pouvoir politique et pouvoir religieux; l’Indochine française (Vietnam, Laos et Cambodge)
    JEL: N15 N35 P48
    Date: 2018–01–11
  7. By: Firdaus Hafidz (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Tim Ensor (Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds); Sandy Tubeuf (Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds)
    Abstract: Despite increased national health expenditure in health facilities in Indonesia, health outcomes remain poor. The aim of our study is to examine the factors determining the relative efficiency of hospitals. Using linked national data sources from facility, households, and village-based surveys, we measure the efficiency of 200 hospitals across fifteen provinces in Indonesia with output oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Inputs include the number of doctors, nurses and midwives, other staff, and beds while outputs are the number of outpatient visits and bed-days. We run truncated regression in second stage DEA and one stage SFA analysis to assess contextual characteristics influencing health facilities performance. Our results indicate a wide variation in efficiency between health facilities. High-performing hospitals are in deprived areas. Hospitals located in less concentrated health facilities, in Java and Bali Island, high coverage of insurance scheme for the poor perform better than in other geographical location. We find an inconclusive impact of quality of care, and ownership on efficiency. This paper concludes by highlighting the characteristics of hospitals that have the potential to increase efficiency.
    Keywords: Efficiency, hospitals, frontier analysis, data envelopment analysis, stochastic frontier analysis, Indonesia
    JEL: C50 I10
    Date: 2018
  8. By: McDoom, Omar Shahabudin
    Abstract: How do changes in socio-economic inequality between ethnic groups affect interethnic ties in a divided society? I analyse the evolution of cross-ethnic marriages in a society affected by violence along ethnic boundaries and make three principal findings. First, as inequality between ethnic groups increases, the prospects of interethnic marriages decline. Status equalization between ethnic groups promotes cross-ethnic ties. Insofar as intermarriage indicates social cohesion, reducing ethnic inequality in multiethnic societies may facilitate ethnic integration. Second, the effect of ethnic inequality is not uniform across ethnic groups. Endogamy remains high among certain groups even when socio-economic disparities diminish. I suggest this is because the ethnic norms and sanctions proscribing outmarriage are particularly powerful within these groups. Third, the social and political salience of ethnic boundaries may be distinct. Intermarriages can increase even as civil war violence intensifies. Ethnic divisions risk being overstated by assuming political attitudes also drive choices in the social sphere. I establish these findings in the deeply-divided society of Mindanao in the southern Philippines by analysing over 6.2 million marriages and comparing individual-level census data for the years 2000 and 2010. Mindanao is home to a longstanding insurgency, waged by rebels drawn from the native Muslim Moro population resentful of their minoritization and dispossession by Christian settlers
    Keywords: Inequality; ethnicity; violent conflict; intermarriage; social cohesion; Philippines
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–12–01
  9. By: Halkos, George; Managi, Shunsuke
    Abstract: Continuous increase in one side of human populations and on the other side on the number of extinct and endangered species in Asia requires appropriate land use and forest preservation. Forests provide a number of benefits such as regulation of global climate and ecosystems, provision of raw materials and wild foods for local communities, watershed protection for a region, national income from ecotourism, carbon sequestration, being a landscape and habitat of rare species. This introduction provides summary for land use, forest preservation and biodiversity policy in Asia.
    Keywords: Asia; Land use; Ecosystem Service; Biodiversity.
    JEL: Q10 Q23 Q56
    Date: 2017–11
  10. By: Agaton, Casper
    Abstract: The Philippines is making a significant step to become energy independent by developing more sustainable sources of energy. The country sees investments in renewable energy and nuclear energy as promising alternatives to address the country’s problem in energy security. This paper evaluates the comparative attractiveness of either investing in alternative energy sources or continuing the use of coal for electricity generation in the Philippines. Applying the real options approach under coal price uncertainty, this study analyzes investment values and optimal timing of switching technologies from coal to renewable or nuclear energy. It also examines how negative externality and the risk of nuclear accident affect investment decisions. Results identify possible welfare losses from waiting or delaying investing in alternative energy. Negative externality favors investment in nuclear energy over coal, whereas the risk of nuclear accident favors investment in renewable energy.
    Keywords: renewable energy, nuclear energy, nuclear accident, coal prices, dynamic optimization, investment under uncertainty
    JEL: C61 G17 Q41 Q42 Q47 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2017–12–18
  11. By: Ear Sothy; Sim Sokcheng; Khiev Pirom
    Abstract: Employing the available social accounting matrix, this paper examines the impacts of different public education consumption schemes on Cambodian macroeconomics, the labour market and household welfare. The results from the simulation scenarios in the CGE model revealed that the reallocation of public spending from primary and secondary education to higher education produced a negative impact on the wage rate of low and fairly educated labour, dropped outputs, and reduced household welfare, which had adverse effects on macroeconomic variables in general. However, the shift of public spending from administration to the three education sectors, showed positive impacts on the economy, household income and welfare. Given the factor endowment structure of the Cambodian education sector, the policy that focuses on higher education by providing more spending to this sector did not yield results as good as keeping the initial education spending structure.
    Keywords: Public education spending, labour market, household Welfare, CGE, simulation modeling
    JEL: C63 C67 C68
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Ballesteros, Marife M.; Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C.; Ancheta, Jenica; Corpus, John Paul
    Abstract: The study aims to assess the Sustainable Livelihood Program (SLP) implementation processes based on recent policy enhancements and to determine additional dimensions or indicators of program success. The analysis is based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and a survey of a small sample of beneficiaries. Majority of those served by the program have expressed positive results from the SLP intervention particularly when it comes to the skills training. There is a felt improvement in the standard of living experienced from additional household income, business expansion, and a stable source of employment. Other dimensions of success include increased motivation to be productive; better links to employment or that the program provided a form of social protection. However, beneficiary targeting is poor with parent leaders, their friends and relatives capturing most of the benefits. Delays in project review and approval caused potential beneficiaries to drop out, back out, or find other opportunities. Moreover, the establishment of SLP associations is viewed as a deterrent instead of a mechanism for success. Overall, additional reforms in the delivery of program services is still needed. The reforms should focus on beneficiary targeting and development of characteristic-based assessment tool on beneficiary readiness and capacities. The Department of Social Welfare and Development also needs to examine project review and approval, caseload of project development officers, and issues with regard to social preparation and development of associations. Lastly, an impact evaluation has to be undertaken to provide better evidence of program success.
    Keywords: Philippines, poverty, livelihood, employment, Sustainable Livelihood Program, microenterprise
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Manasan, Rosario G.
    Abstract: The adoption of a federal form of government was a key campaign promise of President Rodrigo Duterte, a thrust reiterated in his first State of the Nation Address in 2016. It has strong support among the members of the super majority at the House of Representatives, being part and parcel of proposed constitutional amendments that are currently being deliberated by the Committee on Constitutional Amendments. The federalism discourse in the public arena is oftentimes framed along two strands. First, the adoption of a federal form of government is seen as a means to reverse the unequal allocation of resources between what critics call 'imperial Manila' and the rest of the country. Second, advocates view the shift as key to attaining sustainable peace in Mindanao given its potential to secure national unity while protecting regional diversity. The discussion arising from both strands highlights the fact that there is no single federal model, and that the federal model may or may not work in the Philippine context depending on the specific design features of the particular model that is proposed. Given this perspective, this paper focuses on the design options of the fiscal elements of a federal model that will help ensure the realization of potential benefits from adopting a federal system of government. The paper discusses possible design options along the four pillars of intergovernmental relations: (i) functional or expenditure assignment, (ii) tax/revenue assignment, (iii) intergovernmental transfers, and (iv) subnational government borrowing. These principles are aimed at ensuring that the federal government and subnational governments face the right incentives for efficient and equitable delivery of public services and enhancing accountability of subnational governments to their constituents. The discussion of the same is contextualized by lessons from the country's past decentralization experience under the Local Government Code of 1991. The paper also provides estimates of the cost of shifting to a federal form of government under different scenarios in terms of the number of regions. Finally, it concludes with the discussion of why adopting a federal form of government should take into account not only the net benefits of the reform, but also the preconditions for its success.
    Keywords: Philippines, decentralization, expenditure assignment, equalization transfers, federal government, fiscal autonomy, intergovernmental transfers, political dynasties, political turncoatism, tax assignment, unitary government, vertical fiscal gap, vertical fiscal imbalance
    Date: 2017
  14. By: Heeckt, Catarina; Gomes, Alexandra; Ney, David; Phanthuwongpakdee, Nuttavikhom; Sabrié, Marion
    Abstract: Cities around the world face the challenge of understanding why, how and where they are growing; an understanding that is crucial if they are to realise opportunities to steer this growth in ways that promote sustainable and equitable urban development. Being able to measure, visualise and analyse these often complex patterns of growth is essential to effective policy design and implementation. It is within this context that the IGC Myanmar office has collaborated with LSE Cities on this first step towards developing a more in-depth research programme on urban development in Yangon. It has resulted in the creation of a comparative information base that will provide a strong empirical foundation for subsequent analytics and policy research. This will in turn inform strategic spatial development in the Yangon metropolitan region in the future. Over the past decade, LSE Cities has developed a research methodology known as Urban Growth Analytics that provides a framework for this type of data-driven policy analysis. Urban Growth Analytics is based on the collection, visualisation and comparative analysis of critical urban development data, assessing two or more cities across a range of pre-defined indicators. A primary focus is on land use and infrastructure as proxies for various interrelated urban systems. In addition, and depending on data availability, socio-economic and environmental data as well as transport and mobility patterns are analysed to deepen the understanding of the relationship between spatial and social development patterns...
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–02
  15. By: Kanbur, Ravi
    Abstract: This paper attempts to understand Asian Drama in the context of the development debates of its time, and in terms of the sensibilities that Gunnar Myrdal-the brilliant economic theorist and philosopher of knowledge, and the Swedish politician-brought to the conceptualization of the problems and prospects of development. The paper covers: (i) what Gunnar Myrdal brought to the analysis of development from his long, varied and distinguished academic and practitioner career; (ii) the development terrain in the mid-twentieth century; and (iii) how Asian Drama lay on that terrain and in the remaining years of Gunnar Myrdal's continued eventful life. The two central questions posed in the paper are: (i) How did Gunnar Myrdal's broad experience and perspective influence Asian Drama? (ii) How did Asian Drama influence the development debate?
    Date: 2018–01
  16. By: Nakatani, Ryota
    Abstract: This paper studies output declines during currency crises based on the theoretical model by Nakatani (2016, 2017a), highlighting the role of shocks that trigger crises. Using panel data on 49 developing countries, we find that both productivity shocks in the real sector and shocks to the country’s risk premium in financial markets affect the output costs of currency crises, which are 4% of GDP on average and 8% for severe crises. During severe currency crises in Asian and Latin-American countries, both productivity shocks and exchange rate overvaluation were found to be important factors in explaining large output losses.
    Keywords: Growth; Currency Crisis; Productivity; Risk Premium; Exchange Rate Overvaluation; Developing Countries
    JEL: E32 F41 F43 G15 O47
    Date: 2018–01–01
  17. By: Prema-chandra Athukorala; Suresh Narayanan
    Abstract: This paper examines prerequisites for a successful inter-state economic corridor development program in a country with a federal system of government through an in-depth study of the design, implementation and the developmental impact of the Northern Corridor Economic Region (NCER) in Malaysia that encompasses the states of Penang, Kedah, Perak and Perlis. The analysis suggests that the NCER has the potential to leverage on the core strengths of the state of Penang--global connectivity, mature business eco-system with a strong presence of multinational enterprises, and sizeable talent pool--in order to redress the widening inter-regional and urban-rural development divide. However, so far the achievements have not matched the expectations primarily because of an inherent institutional limitation of the program: failure to constitute the Northern Corridor Implementation Authority (NCIA) with adequate power and operational flexibility to achieve the overarching goal of shared growth while ensuring compliance from all stakeholders.
    Keywords: economic corridor, regional development, Malaysia
    JEL: O18 O21 O53
    Date: 2017
  18. By: Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Lee, Iona Hyojung (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: The Korean pop culture (TV dramas and K-pop music) has grown immensely popular across the globe over the past two decades. This paper analyzes its impacts on international trade. We compile a cross-country panel dataset of South Korea's TV show exports to over 150 countries for the period of 1998-2014. These variations in exposure to Korean pop cultures are used to identify changes in consumer preferences for Korean merchandise across time, countries, and products (at the HS 4-digit level). First, we find that more Korean TV show exports significantly increase Korean exports of goods for women, while the effects are much smaller on men's merchandise. This strongly supports the demand-side preference mechanism, because supply-side factors can hardly generate such gender bias within the same product category. Second, we find that the TV show effect is much stronger for consumer goods than capital or intermediate goods. Third, we show that there exist significant and positive effects even for goods that are not actively advertised. Together, these findings provide evidence on the importance of cultural preferences and their diffusions in economic exchanges.
    Keywords: Korean Wave; Trade; FDI; Gravity Equation; Cultural Preferences
    JEL: F14 F21 Z10
    Date: 2017–12–27
  19. By: Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Fujii, Tomoki (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Jin, Wei (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of bilateral and time-varying preference bias on trade flows and welfare. We use a unique dataset from the BBC World Opinion Poll that surveys (annually during 2005-2017 with some gaps) the populations from a wide array of countries on their views of whether an evaluated country is having a mainly positive or negative influence in the world. We identify the effects on bilateral preference parameters due to shifts in these country image perceptions, and quantify their general equilibrium effects on bilateral exports and welfare (each time for an evaluated exporting country, assuming that the exporting country's own preference parameters have not changed). We consider fi ve important shifts in country image: the George W. Bush effect, the Donald Trump effect, the Senkaku Islands Dispute effect, the Brexit effect, and the Good-Boy Canadian effect. We fi nd that such changes in bilateral country image perceptions have quantitatively important trade and welfare effects. The negative impact of Donald Trump's "America First" campaign rhetorics on the US' country image might have cost the US as much as 4% of its total exports and gains from trade. In contrast, the consistent improvement of Canadian country image between 2010 and 2017 has amounted to more than 10% of its total welfare gains from trade.
    Keywords: Country image; Consumer preferences; Trade flows; Quantitative welfare analysis
    JEL: C23 C51 C54 F14 F50 N40
    Date: 2017–11–29
  20. By: Afifi, Tubagus
    Abstract: To start this bit breeding business is not difficult. Can be started easily with small capital. Beetroot plants (Beta vulgaris L.) include short-lived vegetable crops. The use of tubers more and more and have an important role for the Indonesian economy. Needs of the bit continues to increase due to population growth, also due to changes in consumption patterns in some developing countries. Beets also produce a sweet taste (sugar). Organic fertilizer is the end result of decomposition of parts or the remains of plants and animals (living things) such as manure, green manure, compost, cake, guano, flour and so on. Likewise the use of organic pesticides is more profitable in the long run. From the analysis above can be concluded if the business of Cultivation Beet plant is very profitable where the capital Rp 4.500.000 with kentungan per month Rp 4.925.000 and turnover in 1 month. Beet is ready for harvest when the age has reached between 8-10 weeks. Harvesting is done in a simple way that is by pulling the beet plant carefully so as not to damage the tubers and then the leaves and roots are cut. However, the trunks are cut 4-5 cm left to keep the tubers fresh because the beet bits remove the sap that causes tubers to wither due to excessive evaporation.
    Keywords: business, beetroot, docomposition, harvest, tuber
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2017–11
  21. By: Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Jin, Wei (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds nonparametric matching methods in structural quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of robustness checks with respect to model speci fications, parameter values, and matching estimations are provided. We also characterize the effects of GATT/WTO on global income disparity, its interaction with preferential trade agreements, and the effects of China's WTO entry.
    Keywords: Matching estimator; Quantitative analysis; Welfare; Fi rm entry; Income disparity
    JEL: F13 F14 F17
    Date: 2017–12–31
  22. By: Li, You (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Tay, Anthony (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We explore the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We consider three separate notions of uncertainty: general macroeconomic uncertainty (the fact that macroeconomic variables are easier to forecast at some times than at others), policy uncertainty, and forecaster uncertainty. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to overall macroeconomic uncertainty and policy uncertainty, while forecaster uncertainty (which we define as the average in the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters) appears to have little role in forecast dispersion.
    Date: 2017–11–01

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