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on South East Asia |
| By: | Katalin Völgyi (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This study is prepared in the framework of a research project on outward foreign direct investments of non-European emerging market multinationals in the CEE region with special focus on V4 countries and Slovenia. It investigates outward FDI from South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. In this preliminary stage of the research we first analyze the general trends of global outward FDI of these six Asian countries from the perspective of geographical/sectoral distribution, investors’ size, motivations (push factors) and supporting government policy etc. Then we try to measure the weight and importance of outward FDI of the six Asian countries in the EU and especially in the CEE region. We found that these Asian countries account for only a low share (0.5%) of the total inward FDI stock of the EU. Out of the six countries, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia are the biggest investors in the whole EU and in V4 countries as well. South Korean and Taiwanese investments in the manufacturing sector, which benefit from the lower labour costs, represent the dominant features of the total outward FDI of the six Asian countries in the V4 countries. To determine the characteristics of Thai, Vietnamese and Indonesian investments in V4 countries, we need to conduct more empirical research. |
| Keywords: | Asian multinationals, outward FDI, Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:232&r=sea |
| By: | Fukunari Kimura (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Lurong Chen (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Cross-border e-commerce has been a major development trend of international trade and globalization. In the next 5-10 years, the top three fastest growing markets in the world-India, Indonesia, and Malaysia-will all come from Asia. Connectivity is the cornerstone of e-commerce development. E-commerce supporting connectivity aims to ease free information flow, logistics, free cash flow, and seamless links between the virtual and physical parts of e-commerce network. Accordingly, policy efforts include: (a) increasing the supply of public goods to improve connectivity infrastructure in both physical world and cyberspace, (b) establishing rules and regulations to ensure dynamics and competition of online market place, (c) improving connectivity-drived services to generate more value added, (d) prioritizing smartphone economy and Internet financial innovation, and, (e) collaboration in the region-wide e-commerce enabling environment |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2017-01&r=sea |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman; Yothin Jinjarak; Nam Ngo; Ilan Noy |
| Abstract: | Economic integration has brought about not only benefits and opportunities but also required adjustment, especially for the youth entering the labor force. The lower growth rates characterizing the post Global Financial Crisis era and the concerns about income inequality put to the fore the degree that better targeted investment in human capital may ameliorate the challenges facing the working poor. Using cross-country data, we find the association between the income shares of the working poor, dependence on manufacturing sector, and the availability of vocational education. Conditioning on tertiary educational attainment, improved access to better vocational education will probably contribute more than large increase in regular college attainment. Comparing the US to Germany suggests that pushing more students to BA granting colleges may no longer be the most efficient way to deal with the challenges caused by the decline in manufacturing employment affecting in particular lower-income households. We also note that a tracking of technical training and educational budget, shown in the case of Vietnam in comparison to Thailand, as well as government subsidies for reskilling of labor force throughout their career in Singapore, is a potential explanation for their relative manufacturing competitiveness. |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F4 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23950&r=sea |
| By: | A.A. Yusuf; E.L. Roos; J.M. Horridge |
| Abstract: | Palm oil has become increasingly important in Indonesian export. Indonesian economic growth, particularly in forest-rich regions of the country depends on the expansion of palm oil production. On the other hand, the Indonesian government is committed to reduce carbon emissions from land use change to which the conversion from natural forest to palm oil has greatly contributed. Indonesia introduced a moratorium of conversion from natural forest to palm oil land. Using a dynamic, bottom-up inter-regional computable general equilibrium of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impact on the national as well as regional economy. The results suggest that the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth, and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers ($10/tCO2 emissions avoided) can more than compensate the welfare loss. However, the impact varies across regions. Sumatera which is highly-dependent on oil palm; of which its economy is less broad-based and its carbon stock of its forest is no longer high, receives fewer transfers and suffer a great economic loss. In the meantime, Kalimantan which is relatively less dependent on oil palm than Sumatera and its forest carbon stock is still high, receives more transfers and get greater benefit. This result suggest that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impact of the transfers is required if the trade-off between conservation and reducing inter-regional economic disparity needs to be reconciled. |
| Keywords: | palm oil, carbon emissions, computable general equilibrium, Indonesia |
| JEL: | R10 R11 R13 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-276&r=sea |
| By: | Hideo Kobayashi |
| Abstract: | This study aims to clarify the current situation and traits of the Vietnamese automobile industry by showing the status of its automobile and auto parts industry. The whole picture of the automobile industry in Viet Nam is discussed first, and then the vulnerability of the auto parts industry, which is the biggest feature and an issue to be addressed in the future, is highlighted as it is the auto parts industry that ultimately determines the competitiveness of the auto industry. The study looked at studies that have been undertaken on this subject. The number of analytical studies dedicated to the auto industry in Viet Nam is extremely small. Besides, most of them have been conducted only in the context of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) automobile industry in general. Studies by Tetsuya Kobayashi (2013) and Yingshan Jin (2016) are among them. These studies are basically intended to provide the actual picture of the automobile industry in Viet Nam. This research paper will focus on the auto parts industry in Viet Nam with the aim of getting closer to its core. It should be noted that many of auto parts suppliers in Viet Nam have started operations as motorcycle parts suppliers, and some of them have transformed from motorcycle to auto parts suppliers. Section 1 describes the establishment of the motorcycle industry in Viet Nam and the formation and expansion of the motorcycle parts industry. Section 2 describes the start of automobile production and the peculiarity of the supply chain formation. Section 3 discusses the possibility of converting from motorcycle parts suppliers to auto parts suppliers. During this process, the global value chain advocated by Gary Gereffi and Miguel Korzeniewicz (1994) is considered to see if and how it will apply and evolve in Viet Nam. |
| Keywords: | Viet Nam, motorcycle and auto parts, mixed production system of 2-wheeled and 4-wheeled vehicles, TOYOTA MOTOR VIETNAM CO., LTD., Truong Hai Auto Corporation Group (THACO) |
| JEL: | L62 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2017-06&r=sea |
| By: | Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Xianbin Yao |
| Abstract: | In East Asia, the path of economic integration that started at the end of World War II, through catch-up industrialization, took a distinguished path. Started in Japan and supported by diffusion of technologies through learning and easier relocation of industries within the region, energy intensive industrialization expanded into countries with fewer development operations. Aided by official development assistance and foreign direct investment, the emergence of production networks across Southeast and East Asia permitted second- and third-tier economies to catch up with advanced economies in technology, technical skill development, and narrow the development gaps. The pattern of East Asia's catch-up has been extensively studied, with the 'Flying Geese' model being the well-known paradigm. This process of catch-up also leads to increased emissions and air, water, and soil pollutions, and to movement of emission intensity and pollutions to second- and third-tier economies. From the perspective of the energy-development nexus, does it mean that East Asia's growth pattern still could not break away from the historical path dependency in energy-intensive industrialization observed elsewhere? This and the following questions are pursued in the paper: What factors lead to the emergency and subsequent dispersal of the 'flying geese'? What were the main characteristics of integrated environmental and energy policy formulation during the dispersal, and what lessons could be learned from those experiences for sustainable future? To our knowledge, this paper is the first such direct attempt to understand the link between the Flying Geese model and energy policies in East Asian economic development. Using the historical data on trade and energy consumption, we demonstrate that East Asian governments have proactively addressed energy intensity concerns, and have further intensified the policy. We also draw lessons learned from the model for its potential application in solving global sustainability challenges. |
| Keywords: | Economic history, energy policy, industrialization, production networks,sustainability |
| JEL: | F01 F14 N10 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2017-08&r=sea |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Kefei You |
| Abstract: | This paper examines global and regional stock market integration in Asia at both the aggregate and disaggregate (industry) level by applying the Phillips-Sul (2007) tests for panel and club convergence. The main findings can be summarised as follows. In the pre-2008 crisis period, no integration/convergence of any kind is found. By contrast, in the post-crisis period, the Asian stock markets appear to be integrated both globally and regionally at the aggregate level; at the industry level, there is evidence of both global and regional integration in 6 out of 10 cases, the exceptions being Financials and Telecommunication, both in a turn-around phase, and Gas & Oil and Technology, for which there is no panel convergence. Club convergence tests reveal the existence of convergence clubs and divergent economies within the full panel, which explains why panel convergence is not found for the pre-crisis period and for the Gas & Oil and Technology sectors in the post-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | Asian stock markets, global and regional integration, Phillips-Sul tests, panel and club convergence |
| JEL: | C32 C33 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6494&r=sea |
| By: | Robert J. Hanlon |
| Abstract: | This article offers three arguments outlining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank's significance and to help policy planners navigate the complex relationship between China, the Bank and themes of sustainability. First, there is little uncertainty that China is serious about development and sustainability. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is but one extension of China's increasing commitment to sustainability and should therefore be embraced by development stakeholders. Second, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank's commitment to infrastructure development complements other multilateral development banks and should not be considered a challenger to the existing order of development lending practices. Rather, China's interest in establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank points to competitive pluralism and poses no threat to the existing international order. Finally, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank's sustainability guidelines are not unique and fall in line with similar policy of other large development banks. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank therefore reinforces sustainability norms while posturing itself as a partner for development. |
| Keywords: | AIIB, China, multilateral development banks, sustainability, construction |
| Date: | 2017–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201739&r=sea |
| By: | Osmin, Muhamad Shaharudin; Md. Diah, Jezan; Mohd. Sharif, Sariwati |
| Abstract: | Road accidents involving heavy commercial passenger vehicle (HCPV) in Malaysia have always been in the spotlight and various efforts have been taken with much attention given on operational issues. At present, the weight and dimensions of HCPV in Malaysia generally regulated under prescriptive standards regulations which do not provide clear safety outcomes and often limits the flexibility about how to achieve it. This paper provides an overview of opportunities and challenges of implementing Performance Based Standards (PBS) regulation for HCPV vehicle in Malaysia based on the Australian PBS regulation implementation for heavy vehicle. It was found that Tail Swing, Braking Efficiency and Maximum Stable Inclination Angle under the existing regulation have or partly met the PBS approach. The opportunities for implementing PBS regulation were explained in terms of the possibility adopting PBS approaches in the existing regulation and second, the institutional readiness to develop and implement it. However, challenges were expected, for example increase in cost of vehicle’s assessment. Implementing PBS regulation for HCPV in Malaysia will provide various benefits such as increase productivity, efficiency and most importantly safety. |
| Keywords: | High capacity passenger vehicle, prescriptive standard regulations, performance based standards regulation, opportunities, challenges |
| JEL: | K23 R48 |
| Date: | 2017–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82005&r=sea |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to examine how the policy rate as a monetary policy stance reacts to output and price level in Thailand during 2005Q1 and 2016Q2. An empirical relationship that characterizes the way the Bank of Thailand adjusts its policy rate to output growth and inflation is identified. Johansen ointegration technique and VAR methodology are used in the analysis. The results from the cointegration analysis show that there exists a long-run relationship of the policy rate with real GDP and prices. This long-run equation differs from the empirical Taylor-type rule. However, the result from short-run dynamics captures the short-run interest rate equation. The partial adjustment coefficient in the estimated interest rate equation is negative and highly significant, which indicates that any deviation of the policy rate from its equilibrium value is corrected by monetary policy actions. Furthermore, there is long-run causality running from inflation and economic growth to a change in policy rate. In the short run, economic growth negatively causes a change in the policy rate while inflation positively causes a change in the policy rate. Also, impulse response analysis from an unrestricted VAR model indicates that both output growth and inflation shocks cause fluctuation in the policy rate. |
| Keywords: | Policy rate, output, prices, error correction mechanism, impulse responses |
| JEL: | C32 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82050&r=sea |
| By: | Lili Yan ING (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Olivier CADOT |
| Abstract: | To measure Ad valorem tariff equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff measures (NTMs), we propose a new alternative that relies on the estimation of bilateral trade flows on two-way panels at the HS 2-digit level with importer, exporter, and product fixed effects and interaction terms between NTM variables and a full vector of country-specific characters. Our results show AVEs for technical barriers to trade measures on manufactured products, for ASEAN countries and the whole sample are 4.5% and 5%, respectively. The AVEs for sanitary and phytosanitary measures on agricultural and food products for ASEAN countries and the whole sample are 6.5% and 6.7%, respectively. It should be noted that AVEs can mean very different things depending on whether they play as correction of a market failure. This depends on the technical capabilities of domestic regulatory agencies. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff measures, ad valorem equivalent, trade, tariff, regional trade, ASEAN |
| JEL: | F1 F5 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2017-09&r=sea |
| By: | Ryan Hartley |
| Abstract: | This article centres on the nature of the Thai state amid a shifting global economic environment, examining it through the lens of foreign direct investment and specifically Japan's declining foreign direct into the kingdom since 2015. It posits that the Thai state is neither a liberal democracy nor a liberal capitalist model and is instead akin to a deep and global competition-oriented state. Through this modality, the article examines recent drops in foreign investment, especially from Japan, and goes on to seek to explain said drops in foreign direct investment through a policy framework extracted from such a theoretical insight of the nature of the Thai state. The article concludes that falling foreign investment can be linked to the reception by Japan of recent policy imperatives and outputs in Thailand that operate on the level of a deep state–globality nexus. |
| Keywords: | Japan FDI, Thailand economy, Thai state, deep state, Thai military, competition state, Mekong region |
| Date: | 2017–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201741&r=sea |
| By: | Nazib, Nur Afiyah; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | As much as it is important in a conventional system, monetary policy also plays a critical role in governing the Islamic economic system. However, in a dual banking system, things may have to be designed and devised differently to cater to the needs of both. Thus, assessing the impact of monetary policy shocks on the Islamic banking system is the key to understanding the addition of the industry towards financial stability and the extent of quality of the industry. The purpose of this paper is to initially revisit the issue of monetary policy shocks on the Islamic banking system, in the case of Malaysia. Our paper extends the previous study by using the most recent monthly data available which is from the year 2010 to the year 2016. Additionally, we incorporate the use of a robust time series technique, ARDL, and paired our analysis with an analysis of variance decomposition to strengthen our findings. Based on the results, we find evidence that despite being in the industry for almost half a century, the monetary policy shocks still have an influence on the Islamic banking deposit in Malaysia. Additionally, the Islamic banking deposits are also highly influenced by the level of inflation which comes out to be the most exogenous variable amongst all. An important implication from our analysis is that it is very critical for the central bank to help maintain the resiliency of the system by designing an appropriate monetary policy that could cater to both system and start devising legitimate risk management procedures that is applicable to these Islamic institutions. |
| Keywords: | Islamic bank deposits, monetary policy, ARDL, Malaysia |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E52 |
| Date: | 2017–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82094&r=sea |
| By: | Rosita Dewi |
| Abstract: | Papuan supporters of the Special Autonomy Law hoped that it would become an instrument to ensure their right to equality through the respect and recognition of their unique identity. This recognition facilitated the blossoming of an adat institution called the Papua Customary Council (Dewan Adat Papua). This institution is an important representative of Papuan. However, it was opposed to the Special Autonomy Law, and several of its members have closed relations with the Council of Papua Presidium (Presidium Dewan Papua), which supports the pro-independence movement. Eight years after the implementation of this law, a new adat institution was formed called the Customary Community Council (Lembaga Masyarakat Adat (LMA)). The LMA is supported by the central government to vis a vis with the Dewan Adat Papua. This article analyses the reasons why the LMA was established as a form of government recognition in Papua. Interestingly, the LMA's strategy is similar to that employed under Suharto by the Customary Deliberative Council (LMA) prior to the Special Autonomy Period when adat institutions were formed and recognized, although with the new goal of achieving governmental policies of interest. |
| Keywords: | recognition, Customary Deliverative Council (LMA), Customary Community Councial (new LMA), Papua Customary Council (DAP), Merauke Integrated Food and Energy Estate (MIFEE) |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201740&r=sea |
| By: | Fadzilah Majid Cooke, Johan Nordensvard, Gusni Bin Saat, and Frauke Urban |
| Abstract: | Hydropower dams have been criticised for their social and environmental implications. There have been attempts to create international social standards for hydropower dam projects, but these standards have had limited impact. This article uses an extended environmental justice framework to make sense of the resettlement and compensation schemes for Indigenous peoples who were resettled for the construction of the Bakun dam in Borneo, East Malaysia. The article therefore analyses the social protection measures designed for the protection of Indigenous peoples and their livelihoods. The case study is based on in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with local communities, institutional actors in Malaysia, Chinese actors and dam builders. The article concludes that the social protection policies did not protect Indigenous people and their land sufficiently, but it facilitated a commodification process of both land and people. This should also be understood as a colonisation of their land and their cultures. |
| Keywords: | environmental justice, indigenous groups, social protection, hydropower dams, Malaysia |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201732&r=sea |
| By: | Fukunari Kimura (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Lurong Chen (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The development of cross-border electronic commerce (e-commerce) is changing the world's economic landscape. To better grasp the opportunities of this global trend of growth, Asian countries will still need to make progress in areas such as connectivity, services, rules and regulations, and labour skills. In addition to market mechanism that shall lead the transition, government policy can help the market maximize the advantage of information revolution, and avoid potential market failure. Asian countries may consider policy effort on promoting e-commerce from following aspects: (a) Enabling an e-commerce growth environment, (b) Improving connectivity, (c) Encouraging value-added services, (d) Accelerating rule-setting and regulatory harmonization, (e) Promoting Internet financial innovation, (f) Prioritizing the development of smartphone economy |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2017-02&r=sea |
| By: | Shota Moriwaki |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to measure agricultural waste and estimate the environmental Kuznets curve in four East Asian countries using time series data from the 1960s to the 2010s. Positive nutrient balance (NB) suggests there is pressure on arable land, causing water pollution and greenhouse gases. For crop farming, only China's NB per arable land unit (NBAL) has risen recently, while NB per product (NBP) in all four countries has declined. Regarding livestock farming, NBAL in all countries except Japan has risen. Even more recently, China's NBP has risen differently to other countries' movements. The estimation results of the environmental Kuznets curve suggest China's NBAL will rise continuously with gross domestic product per capita increases in crop farming. For livestock farming, the estimated indexes are confirmed to have worsened with the advance of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | nutrient balance, farm gateway method, environmental Kuznets curve, breaking point unit-root test, non-linear co-integrating |
| Date: | 2017–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201734&r=sea |
| By: | Diallo, Abdoulaye Kindy; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the influence of economic and financial development on carbon emissions in the United Arab Emirates. The study uses the ARDL approach in order to investigate the long run relationship between carbon emissions and a set of economic and financial variables. The long-run and short-run Granger-causal directions are captured through the Error Correction Model (ECM). In order to determine the relative contributions of economic and financial variables to the evolution of per capita carbon emissions, variance decomposition is used. The period considered for the purpose of this study is the full sample (1975–2013). To the best of our knowledge there is no study in this kind focusing only on the United Arab Emirates. Hence we are attempting an humble contribution with this regards. The findings tend to suggest that there is a decline of CO2 emissions in the long run. Also, considering the error correction model output, we can argue that the financial variables, especially the domestic credit to private sector, have an impact in CO2 emissions. This finding is in line with that of Shahbaz et al. (2013) who found out through two different studies (South Africa and Malaysia) that private sector credit had a reducing impact on CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, United Arab Emirates, Financial development, FDI, GDP, VECM ARDL |
| JEL: | C22 C58 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82054&r=sea |
| By: | Machasio, Immaculate; Tillmann, Peter |
| Abstract: | Remittance inflows from overseas workers are an important source of foreign funding for developing and emerging economies. This paper estimates nonlinear (smooth-transition) local projections to study the effectiveness of monetary policy under different remittance inflows regimes. We show that for Kenya, Mexico, Colombia and the Philippines monetary policy has a smaller effect under strong inflows of remittances. |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168137&r=sea |
| By: | Chang Woon Nam; Sumin Nam; Peter Steinhoff |
| Abstract: | The on-going ‘Make in India’ campaign aims at manufacturing revival. Its characteristics resemble East Asian industrial reform and growth policies based on the flying-geese model which highlights ‘step-by-step’ changes in a country’s specialisation pattern and global competitiveness accompanied by economic growth. Unlikely, ‘Make in India’ comprises heterogeneous measures ‘simultaneously’ supporting industries in different development stages from labour and capital-intensive to high-tech industries and modern services. Moreover issues like world-market uncertainty discouraging export activities; poverty-reduction-oriented labour-industry promotion vs overall productivity increase; and complementary role of IT services for industrial modernisation and growth, will shape the success of India’s diversified industrial policy. |
| Keywords: | development stage theory, flying-geese paradigm, industrial growth and specialisation, Make in India, East Asia, international comparison |
| JEL: | O10 O40 O50 L60 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6431&r=sea |
| By: | Chang, Jae Hee.; Rynhart, Gary. |
| Keywords: | decent work, enterprise creation, corporate social responsibility, employers organization, armed conflict, peace, Asia |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994965593502676&r=sea |
| By: | Bent Flyvbjerg; Chi-keung Hon; Wing Huen Fok |
| Abstract: | Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on reference class forecasting in Hong Kong - a first for the Asia-Pacific region. This study involved 25 roadwork projects, for which forecast costs and durations were compared with actual outcomes. The analysis established and verified the statistical distribution of the forecast accuracy at various stages of project development, and benchmarked the projects against a sample of 863 similar projects. The study contributed to the understanding of how to improve forecasts by de-biasing early estimates, explicitly considering the risk appetite of decision makers, and safeguarding public funding allocation by balancing exceedance and under-use of project budgets. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.09419&r=sea |
| By: | Irina Andone; Beatrice D. Scheubel |
| Abstract: | While the consequences and effectiveness of IMF conditionality have long been the focus of research, the possible negative impact of IMF conditionality on countries’ willingness to ask for an IMF programme - often termed ‘IMF stigma’ - has recently received attention particularly from policy circles. In this paper we investigate how countries’ past experience with the IMF affects their likelihood of entering an IMF arrangement again. To also allow for such learning for countries which never had an IMF programme, we include neighbours’ past IMF conditionality. Our results indicate strong learning from own experience, but hardly any learning from neighbours, except for ASEAN countries. We conjecture that the stigma associated with IMF conditionality may exist for individual country cases, but that a more general ‘IMF stigma’ cannot be related to observing how the IMF treats peers. |
| Keywords: | financial arrangements, reserves, IMF MONA, crisis resolution |
| JEL: | F33 F53 F55 H87 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6399&r=sea |
| By: | Lurong Chen (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The Republic of Korea (henceforth Korea) has managed to achieve sustained economic growth by moving up the value chains. It took Korea only 15 years to transform from an upper middle-income into a high-income country. This paper uses Korea as a case study on how a country can build up core competitiveness in hi-tech industry and develop into a globally competitive and innovative economy by moving up the value chains. It shows the effectiveness of globalisation and trade liberalisation in supporting the country's domestic development strategy. |
| Keywords: | global value chains (GVCs), Republic of Korea, Asian regionalism |
| JEL: | F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2017-07&r=sea |