nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2017‒04‒02
27 papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. Agglomeration economies in Vietnam : a firm-level analysis By Gokan, Toshitaka; Kuroiwa, Ikuo; Nakajima, Kentaro
  2. Strengthening Social Enterprises for Inclusive Growth: Philippines By Ballesteros, Marife M.; Llanto, Gilberto M.
  3. War, Migration and the Origins of the Thai Sex Industry By Abel Brodeur; Warn N. Lekfuangfu; Yanos Zylberberg
  4. Does the More Educated Utilize More Health Care Services? Evidence from Vietnam Using a Regression Discontinuity Design By Dang, Thang
  5. Better management practices and their outcomes in shrimp farming : evidence from small-scale shrimp farmers in Southern Vietnam By Suzuki, Aya; Vu, Hoang Nam
  6. The Allure of the Illegal: Choice Modelling of Rhino Horn Demand in Vietnam By Nick Hanley; Oleg Sheremet; Martina Bozzola; Douglas C. MacMillan
  7. China's Development Finance to Asia: Characteristics and Implications By Oh, Yoon Ah
  8. Breve análisis de los efectos del crecimiento económico en la disminución de la pobreza de Tanzania, Mozambique y Vietnam By Leon, Dorian
  9. Povincial Inflation Dynamics in Indonesia: Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Approach By Mr Insukindro; Chandra Utama
  10. E-learning adoption in hospitality education: An analysis with special focus on Singapore By Nair, Revi; George, Babu P.
  11. Access to Credit and Quality of Education in Vietnam By Hur, Yoon Sun
  12. A Brief History of Human Time. Exploring a database of " notable people " By Olivier Gergaud; Morgane Laouenan; Etienne Wasmer
  13. Identifying Productivity Spillovers Using the Structure of Production Networks By Bazzi, Samuel; Chari, Amalavoyal V.; Nataraj, Shanthi; Rothenberg, Alexander D.
  14. Medium- and Long-run Consequences of Pollution on Labor Supply: Evidence from Indonesia's Forest Fires of 1997 By Younoh Kim; James Manley; Vlad Radoias
  15. Accounting for Heterogeneity in Network Formation Behavior: An application to Vietnamese SMEs By HOSHINO Tadao; SHIMAMOTO Daichi; TODO Yasuyuki
  16. Democracy and Trade—Evidence along the Distribution of Trading Activity By Astrid Krenz; Ana Abeliansky
  17. Trade and Trade Policy Issues in the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals By Messerlin, Patrick
  18. Has Sweden injected realism into public financial management reforms in partner countries? By Matt Andrews
  19. Financial analysis of 100 major lighting manufacturers worldwide By Aurelio Volpe
  20. Should Platforms be Allowed to Charge Ad Valorem Fees? By Wang, Zhu; Wright, Julian
  21. Political Activism in Generation Y: A Global Phenomenon By Ali, Shazad; Asghar, Ali; Mamoon, Dawood
  22. Container Imports and the Advantage of Size By Holmes, Thomas J.; Singer, Ethan
  23. The Big Stuck in State Capability for Policy Implementation By Matt Andrews; Lant Pritchett; Michael Woolcock
  24. Variation in structural change around the world, 1985–2015: Patterns, causes and implications By Adrian Wood
  25. Filling the Gap-- Open Economy Considerations for More Reliable Potential Output Estimates By Zsolt Darvas; András Simon
  26. : Knowledge Creation and Enhanced Investment Dynamics in a Europe with New Institutions By Paul J.J. Welfens
  27. Long-term projections of global food security with R&D-driven technological progress By Zuzana Smeets Kristkova; Michiel van Dijk; Hans van Meijl

  1. By: Gokan, Toshitaka; Kuroiwa, Ikuo; Nakajima, Kentaro
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of agglomeration economies on firm†level productivity in Vietnam. By using Vietnamese firm†level data and the cluster detection method proposed by Mori and Smith (2013), we estimate the agglomeration economies for firm†level productivity. Specifically, we consider the different effects of agglomeration economies for localization and urbanization, as well as across types of firms; state†owned, private, and foreign†owned firms. Furthermore, we decompose the agglomeration economies into the three sources of the effect; inter†industry transaction relationships, knowledge spillovers, and labor pooling. We find the following results. First, localization economies actually improve firm†level productivity in Vietnam, with firms in the clustered areas having higher productivities. However, the localization economies do not improve the productivity of the state†owned firms. Second, urbanization economies improve productivity only for foreign†owned firms. State†owned and private firms do not benefit from urbanization economies. From the decomposition of agglomeration economies, we find that agglomeration economies formed through transactions work only for private firms. On the other hand, agglomeration economies formed through knowledge spillovers and labor pooling work for foreign†owned firms.
    Keywords: Local economy, Economic conditions, Economic geography, Productivity, Agglomeration Economies, Economic Geography
    JEL: R12
    Date: 2017–03
  2. By: Ballesteros, Marife M.; Llanto, Gilberto M.
    Abstract: Social enterprises have been emerging globally as alternative organizations to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth. Success stories of social enterprises have shown that multiple bottom lines can be achieved; that firms can be vehicles for profit and other moral imperatives. In the Philippines, a resurgence of social enterprises has also been observed. However, the current policy environment in the country is yet unresponsive to the growth of social enterprises. There is a need to understand better the context of social enterprise operations through more rigorous research.
    Keywords: Philippines, inclusive growth, social enterprises, community economies, social and solidarity economy
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Warn N. Lekfuangfu (Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok); Yanos Zylberberg (Bristol University, Bristol)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants behind the spatial distribution of the sex industry in Thailand. We relate the development of the sex industry to an early temporary demand shock, i.e., U.S. military presence during the Vietnam War. Comparing the surroundings of Thai military bases used by the U.S. army to districts close to unused Thai bases, we find that there are currently 5 times more commercial sex workers in districts near former U.S. bases. The development of the sex industry is also explained by a high price elasticity of supply due to female migration from regions affected by an agricultural crisis. Finally, we study a consequence induced by the large numbers of sex workers in few red-light districts: the HIV outbreak in the early 1990s.
    Keywords: Persistence, Industry Location, Sex Industry, HIV/AIDS
    JEL: O17 O18 N15 J46 J47 I28
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Dang, Thang
    Abstract: In 1991 Vietnam implemented a compulsory schooling reform that provides this paper a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of education on health care utilization measured by the probability of doctor visit, the frequency of doctor visit and per visit out-of-pocket expenditure with a regression discontinuity design. The paper finds that schooling induces considerable impacts on health care utilization although the signs of the impacts changes with specific types of health care service examined. In particular, increased education aggrandizes inpatient utilization whereas it reduces outpatient health care utilization for both public and private health sectors. The estimates are strongly robust to various windows of the sample choice. The paper also discovers that the links between education and health insurance or income play very essential roles as potential mechanisms to explain the causal impacts of education on health care utilization in Vietnam.
    Keywords: Education; health care utilization; regression discontinuity design; Vietnam
    JEL: I12 I21 J13
    Date: 2017–03–18
  5. By: Suzuki, Aya; Vu, Hoang Nam
    Abstract: Despite the growth of aquaculture exports from developing countries in recent years, a high percentage of these products are rejected at developed countries' ports because of non-compliance with international standards. This paper presents a case study of the shrimp aquaculture sector in Vietnam to examine the factors behind the persistence of such port rejections. In particular, we focus on why the so-called Better Management Practices (BMPs) are not appropriately adopted by many farmers and examine whether the number and types of information sources matter in farmers' decisions on BMP adoption and whether BMP adoption actually leads to better performances. On the basis of our estimation using primary data collected in Southern Vietnam, we find that information sources and training experiences indeed matter in the adoption of a higher number of BMPs and that BMP adoption indeed reduces the possibility of disease outbreaks. These results prove the effectiveness of BMPs and suggest the importance of disseminating knowledge regarding them to farmers through experts.
    Keywords: Aquaculture, Production management, Quality control, International trade, Vietnam, Port rejection, Better Management Practices
    JEL: L15 O13 O19 F63
    Date: 2017–03
  6. By: Nick Hanley (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews); Oleg Sheremet (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews); Martina Bozzola (Agricultural Economics and Policy Group, ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Douglas C. MacMillan (DICE, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent)
    Abstract: Demand for rhino horn products is the main driver of illegal hunting of African rhinos. Using choice modelling we identify the main drivers of demand and estimate consumer willingness to pay for rhino horn attributes of high policy relevance among Vietnamese users and potential users. We find that wild or semi-wild sourced horn, harvested humanly from least rare species is the most valued among Vietnamese consumers. Furthermore, consumers are willing to pay more for illegally-traded horn, indicating that the international ban on the trade has generated a premium for illegal horn.
    Keywords: Rhino Conservation, Illegal Hunting, Trade in Wildlife Products, Choice Experiments
    JEL: F18 Q27 Q51 Q57
    Date: 2017–03
  7. By: Oh, Yoon Ah (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of China's development finance to developing countries with a focus on Asia from 2000 to 2012. It uses a recent version of China AidData, one of the most reliable and publicly available data sources that systematically collect and differentiate different types of China's official development financial flows. This paper differs from previous studies in two aspects that: (1) it analyzes a wider range of developing countries, moving beyond earlier research largely limited to Africa; and (2) it examines regional variation in China's motives for development financing. The findings show that China's allocations decision for concessional development flows, or ODA, has mixed motives of humanitarian, commercial and strategic interests. It is noteworthy that China's ODA appears not to be in competition against, but rather in a complementary form to, established donors in this period. Yet substantial regional variation is observed, suggesting different regional dynamics are at work. On the other hand, it is found that China's allocations decision for less-concessional development financing largely follows commercial considerations. This paper also provides detailed discussion of the trends in China's development finance to Southeast Asia, which is an Asian region critical for China's economic and foreign policy interests. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of possible shift in China's overseas development finance strategy since 2011.
    Keywords: China; Asia; Development Finance; Aid
    Date: 2016–12–30
  8. By: Leon, Dorian
    Abstract: Economías asiáticas de rápido crecimiento como Vietnam han generado una disminución sustancial en la pobreza, mientras que países como Mozambique en África subsahariana en donde los niveles de crecimiento han sido igualmente elevados, han mostrado menores tasas de disminución de la pobreza. El presente artículo tiene como objetivo describir estos casos de crecimiento sin reducción de la pobreza y en consecuencia afirmar que los mismos plantean dudas acerca de la eficacia de las estrategias de desarrollo orientadas al crecimiento.
    Keywords: crecimiento pro-pobre, zonas económicas especiales, África subsahariana, pobreza.
    JEL: I31 O43 O53 O55 R11
    Date: 2017–02–06
  9. By: Mr Insukindro; Chandra Utama
    Abstract: In general, the previous studies analyze the inflation dynamics in Indonesia using national data which may have some weaknesses because the results tend to be dominated by the behavior of inflation in Java. It is expected that the results of this study can represent the inflation dynamics in the whole provinces of Indonesia. This paper attempts to analyze the provincial inflation dynamics in Indonesia for the period of 2005 (III) -2013 (III) by utilizing Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC) theory and recent developments in econometric analysis of data panel. The approaches follow relevant HNKPC theory, using dynamic (backward- and forward- looking) data panel analysis and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation. The findings show that HNKPC approach can be utilized to estimate the inflation dynamics in the whole provinces of Indonesia. The empirical results also indicate that formations of inflation expectations are determined by past and future inflation. In other words, the provincial inflation dynamics in Indonesia are dominated by the forward-looking behavior of economic agents. The estimated parameters of the backward- and forward-looking behavior are relatively lower than those of the previous studies. Those may be because the previous studies use national data instead of provincial data. It is suggested that our economic agents respond quickly to the credible policies introduced by government and future information.
    Keywords: Indonesia, Macroeconometric modeling, Monetary issues
    Date: 2015–07–01
  10. By: Nair, Revi; George, Babu P.
    Abstract: This paper explores issues and challenges in the adoption of e-learning in hospitality education, with special reference to Singapore. Hospitality being a ‘high-touch’ profession and many hospitality related skills being largely intangible, there has been significant industry resistance in technology adoption. There has been concerns from multiple stakeholder groups as to how effectively can technologies compensate for the loss of social context of traditional hands-on learning. However, in Singapore, some polytechnic based schools have practically demonstrated the ways by which technology could be meaningfully integrated into hospitality education.
    Keywords: E-learning, hospitality, education, active learning, polytechnics, Singapore
    JEL: L83 M1 O1
    Date: 2016–01–15
  11. By: Hur, Yoon Sun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper tries to determine the relationship between two of growth engines in Vietnam: access to credit and education. To avoid potential bias due to the endogeneity of access to credit variable, this paper utilizes the propensity score matching. This paper takes advantage of the Young Lives Survey of Vietnam that collected information on children of various ages to observe the effect of credit access in different stage of childhood. The result of propensity score matching analysis shows that the quality of education, measured by test scores, is impacted significantly by access to credit when the child is young and household income is low. However, when the child is older, most of the input to enhance the quality of education comes from outside of household resources, such as school, friends, and teachers, and the access to credit status of the household does not have significant effects on the quality of education.
    Keywords: Access To Credit; Education; Vietnam; Propensity Score Matching
    JEL: I24 I25 O15
    Date: 2016–06–29
  12. By: Olivier Gergaud (KEDGE Business School [Talence] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Morgane Laouenan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Etienne Wasmer (ECON - Département d'économie - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: This paper describes a database of 1,243,776 notable people and 7,184,575 locations (Geolinks) associated with them throughout human history (3000BCE-2015AD). We first describe in details the various approaches and procedures adopted to extract the relevant information from their Wikipedia biographies and then analyze the database. Ten main facts emerge. 1. There has been an exponential growth over time of the database, with more than 60% of notable people still living in 2015, with the exception of a relative decline of the cohort born in the XVIIth century and a local minimum between 1645 and 1655. 2. The average lifespan has increased by 20 years, from 60 to 80 years, between the cohort born in 1400AD and the one born in 1900AD. 3. The share of women in the database follows a U-shape pattern, with a minimum in the XVIIth century and a maximum at 25% for the most recent cohorts. 4. The fraction of notable people in governance occupations has decreased while the fraction in occupations such as arts, literature/media and sports has increased over the centuries; sports caught up to arts and literature for cohorts born in 1870 but remained at the same level until the 1950s cohorts; and eventually sports came to dominate the database after 1950. 5. The top 10 visible people born before 1890 are all non-American and have 10 different nationalities. Six out of the top 10 born after 1890 are instead U.S. born citizens. Since 1800, the share of people from Europe and the U.S. in the database declines, the number of people from Asia and the Southern Hemisphere grows to reach 20% of the database in 2000. Coïncidentally, in 1637, the exact barycenter of the base was in the small village of Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises (Champagne Region in France), where Charles de Gaulle lived and passed away. Since the 1970s, the barycenter oscillates between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. 6. The average distance between places of birth and death follows a U-shape pattern: the median distance was 316km before 500AD, 100km between 500 and 1500AD, and has risen continuously since then. The greatest mobility occurs between the age of 15 and 25. 7. Individuals with the highest levels of visibility tend to be more distant from their birth place, with a median distance of 785km for the top percentile as compared to 389km for the top decile and 176km overall. 8. In all occupations, there has been a rise in international mobility since 1960. The fraction of locations in a country different from the place of birth went from 15% in 1955 to 35% after 2000. 9. There is no positive association between the size of cities and the visibility of people measured at the end of their life. If anything, the correlation is negative. 10. Last and not least, we find a positive correlation between the contemporaneous number of entrepreneurs and the urban growth of the city in which they are located the following decades; more strikingly, the same is also true with the contemporaneous number or share of artists, positively affecting next decades city growth; instead, we find a zero or negative correlation between the contemporaneous share of “militaries, politicians and religious people” and urban growth in the following decades.
    Keywords: Big Data,notable people
    Date: 2017–01–19
  13. By: Bazzi, Samuel; Chari, Amalavoyal V.; Nataraj, Shanthi; Rothenberg, Alexander D.
    Abstract: Despite the importance of agglomeration externalities in theoretical work, evidence for their nature, scale, and scope remains elusive, particularly in developing countries. Identification of productivity spillovers between firms is a challenging task, and estimation typically requires, at a minimum, panel data, which are often not available in developing country contexts. In this paper, we develop a novel identification strategy that uses information on the network structure of producer relationships to provide estimates of the size of productivity spillovers. Our strategy builds on that proposed by Bramoulle et al. (2009) for estimating peer effects, and is one of the first applications of this idea to the estimation of productivity spillovers. We improve upon the network structure identification strategy by using panel data and validate it with exchange-rate induced trade shocks that provide additional identifying variation. We apply this strategy to a long panel dataset of manufacturers in Indonesia to provide new estimates of the scale and size of productivity spillovers. Our results suggest positive productivity spillovers between manufacturers in Indonesia, but estimates of TFP spillovers are considerably smaller than similar estimates based on firm-level data from the U.S. and Europe, and they are only observed in a few industries.
    Date: 2017–02
  14. By: Younoh Kim (Department of Economics, Sam Houston State University); James Manley (Department of Economics, Towson University); Vlad Radoias (Department of Economics, Sam Houston State University)
    Abstract: We use a natural experiment in Indonesia to study the medium- and long-run effects of air pollution on labor supply. We find that exposure to air pollution reduces hours worked and while the medium-run effects are larger in magnitude, some effects do persistent in the long run. More interestingly, we are able to provide some insight regarding the underlying channels that contribute to the reduced labor supply. Own health seems to be the only responsible channel in the long-run, while in the medium-run an additional channel based on dependent care-giving is also important
    Keywords: Air Pollution, Working Hours, Indonesia.
    JEL: J22 Q53
    Date: 2017–03
  15. By: HOSHINO Tadao; SHIMAMOTO Daichi; TODO Yasuyuki
    Abstract: Network formation is often characterized by homophily—the tendency that agents connect with others who have similar attributes. However, while most agents are homophilous, others may be heterophilous, namely, aiming to create ties with dissimilar agents. This study finds evidence supporting this hypothesis for the first time in the literature by applying random coefficient models to information-sharing network data for Vietnamese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). One possible interpretation for this heterophily is that firms can obtain more useful and performance-improving information from those dissimilar—as opposed to similar—to themselves, as suggested by certain social network studies.
    Date: 2017–03
  16. By: Astrid Krenz; Ana Abeliansky
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of democracy on trade along the distribution of countries' trading activity. We find a stronger relationship between democracy and trade at the lower quantiles of the trading activity, especially for the importing activity. Our results imply that the impact of democratization on trade is more important at a lower level of trading activity. Democratization's marginal benefit decreases over the distribution of the trading activity. We specially focus on a widely neglected issue in the literature: economies with higher trading activity are not necessarily the most democratic countries in the world. We find particular differences in the case of China, Malaysia, Mexico and Russia. Quantile regressions offer a powerful tool to detect these interdependencies. Using a conditional mean estimation methodology only leads to the wrong conclusion that the relationship between democracy and trade remains the same across the distribution of the trading activity and across different countries. See above See above
    Keywords: NA, Trade issues, Trade issues
    Date: 2015–07–01
  17. By: Messerlin, Patrick (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the trade and policy issues in the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It assesses the dramatic changes in the political, economic, and business background from the early 2000s (shaping the MDGs) to the early 2010s (designing the SDGs). These changes rarely get the attention they merit, despite their profound consequences on how to use—or not use—trade policies for promoting development. Following this, it examines the three major phases in the MDG/SDG progress: first, a pro-trade agenda during the preparation of the MDG Report (2002–2005) insisting on the positive impact of trade for development if—a big if—economically sound trade policies are adopted; then, uninspiring MDG8 Gap Reports cantoned in the increasingly sterile—and economically unsound—World Trade Organization negotiations during the implementation period of the MDGs (2007–2015); finally, the ignorance of the trade potential for a “better life” during the preparation of the SDGs (2013–2015). The paper also provides a telling comparison of the MDGs’ and SDGs’ very different inputs and outputs. The paper concludes by stressing the largely ignored common regulatory agenda between trade policies and the SDGs, arguing that a well-designed trade policy could play a key role for improving domestic regulations, and, hence, contribute to the SDGs’ ultimate goal—a “better life”.
    Keywords: UN MDGs; SDGs; trade; trade policy; trade regulation; norms; mutual equivalence
    JEL: F10 O10
    Date: 2017–01–16
  18. By: Matt Andrews (Center for International Development at Harvard University)
    Abstract: Public financial management (PFM) reform is a common part of many development initiatives. It generally involves promoting "good practices" in developing countries, embedded in frameworks like the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment (PEFA 2006). These include multi-year budgeting, competitive procurement, modern internal audit, and more. Such practices have proved effective in selected contexts and promise solutions to common problems in governments. Unfortunately, a growing literature shows that many governments do not solve their problems after years of adopting such solutions. Data reveal that governments commonly produce new laws that are not enforced and budgets that are not effectively executed, and suffer from weak capacities in distributed units (like line ministries and local governments) after many finished projects (Andrews 2006, 2011, 2013; Porter et al. 2011; Wescott 2009). Studies tie these limits to a lack of realism in reform design and implementation (Andrews 2013; Andrews, Pritchett and Woolcock 2012; Booth 2011; Levy 2013; World Bank 2012). They argue, essentially, that reforms commonly fail to allow for necessary adaptation of external ideas to the realities in targeted contexts, often because the reform processes focus too narrowly on introducing the external good practice in principle and pay little attention to the practical difficulties of doing so in practice. Studies suggest, for instance, that such reforms pay insufficient attention to the political and administrative difficulties of effecting change, and that these difficulties commonly undermine reform results. Where studies see more effective and far reaching reform they often find that the externally nominated "good practices" are fitted to the targeted context through more adaptive processes that emphasize the real and practical issues of doing reform (like building reform support, testing and adjusting reform designs, and continually matching solutions and capacity realities and needs) (Andrews 2015; Andrews et al. 2014; Cabri 2014; Levy 2013). These studies call for approaches that allow more realism in reform processes in developing countries, especially those supported by multilateral and bilateral donors. They do so knowing that similar calls have been made before; and that there are already many examples of such realism in the development community. There is, however, a challenge to identify these examples and describe what such processes look like in practice. This search leads quickly to a focus on bilateral donors. A small and interesting set of work suggests that such donors might have a comparative advantage in introducing more realism to PFM-type reforms in developing countries, given their own country’s recent experiences with doing such reforms. The argument is simply that development agencies from these countries can leverage the real experiences with doing reform in their own contexts when engaging with reformers in developing countries. They can, for instance, access experienced reformers to share lessons on issues like building demand for change, establishing political support for reform, and adapting reform ideas to context. Such lessons are often learned best through experience and remain tacit in those who have been through the experience. Bilateral agencies arguably have an advantage in accessing such people and their lessons, and can more effectively incorporate this valuable knowledge into their reform support than multilateral agencies. This paper offers a novel analysis of this theory, asking whether Swedish development agencies working in the PFM field have leveraged the potential comparative advantage of the country’s own experience in supporting reform. The country’s own reforms have resulted in effective Sweden-specific adaptations of many of the good practices being promoted in developing countries today (including multi-year budgeting and modern accounting and audit). Academic descriptions of these reforms emphasize the processes by which they were adopted and the realism involved in such, and suggest the presence of many applied and tacit lessons one could see as valuable in developing countries (about testing reform ideas, for example, progressing gradually in reform processes, creating an urgent pressure for change, and building support for reform). The question asked here is whether Swedish development agencies bring these lessons into their support for PFM work, building on a potential advantage to promote realism in reform. After introducing this question in an opening section, the paper provides a study of Swedish development agency engagement with PFM, in three domains: at the global level (where the development community has identified what "good" reforms should entail) and in two country-level experiences (Mozambique and Cambodia). The study uses process analysis to examine Swedish engagement in these domains (and reflects on "Swedish" involvement broadly, not on any one development agency3). This approach offers a historical rendering of engagements since the late 1980s, based primarily on documentary evidence. There are limits to this kind of study, discussed in the methods section, but its strength is in allowing a view of reform support over time. A conclusion notes that this view shows repeated attempts by Swedish development agencies to bring realism into their reform engagements. This has sometimes involved drawing on their own country's reformers and reform experience, although there does seem to be less of this than one might expect given the scope and success of the country’s own reforms. One explanation for this centers on evidence that Swedish reform engagements attempt to bring realism into their engagements by promoting a process-oriented way of doing development within its development agencies and with partner countries (not just by drawing on their own-country experience). This finding leads to a revision of the argument about how bilateral and multilateral agencies can promote realism in development. Another concluding observation notes that all efforts to bring realism have been less prevalent and effective in the past decade. Explanations are offered for this as well, including the growing importance of budget support in developing countries and the focus on highly specified and generalized PFM products—rather than process.
    Date: 2015–09
  19. By: Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: The report Financial Analysis of 100 Major Lighting Manufacturers Worldwide is at its first edition. It is the result of CSIL processing a dataset made up of a selection of medium and large companies. The aim of the report is: to assess the state of health of the lighting industry. The size of the sample is of over 700 companies, averaging a workforce of 675 and a turnover of USD 103 million; to provide a basic judgement on the performance (in terms of growth, profitability and financial situation) of the top 100 companies, ranked according to an index that takes into account those variables. The report is structured as follows: Lighting sector performance. Analysis of Key financial data of more than 700 balance-sheet, for the period 2011-2015. Overview of the total sample in terms of profitability, turnover indicators, employment and productivity, financial structure and analysis by company size (four turnover ranges). Analysis by geographical area. This chapter breaks down the over 700 companies by geographical areas, highlighting top players and key financial data for each area. Analysis by segment. Each company is classified according to its core activity. The following Lighting segments are identified: Lighting fixtures, Automotive Lighting, and Lighting Components. Companies to watch. The chapter aims to provide company rankings in relation to the main indicators from the balance sheet analysis (growth, profitability, structure data). For each variable, companies are ordered in descending. Updated company profiles of largest companies by turnover are also provided. Top 100 companies. The top 100 companies are selected from the sample of 713 companies on the basis of a synthetic indicator that includes the main profitability, performance, and financial indicators. Among the considered financial ratios: Operating Revenue (Turnover), Sales, EBIT, Added Value, P/L before Tax, Net Income, Total Assets, Shareholders Funds, Cash Flow, ROE, ROI, EBITDA margin, EBIT margin, Current and Solvency ratio, Number of Employees, Turnover per Employee, Added value per Employee, Labour Cost of Employees. Countries considered: North and Latin America, Asia and Oceania Area, European Area, and Other countries.
    JEL: L25
    Date: 2017–03
  20. By: Wang, Zhu (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Wright, Julian (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Many platforms that facilitate transactions between buyers and sellers charge ad valorem fees in which fees depend on the transaction price set by sellers. Given these platforms do not incur significant costs that vary with transaction prices, their use of ad valorem fees has raised controversies about the efficiency of this practice. In this paper, using a model that connects platforms' use of ad valorem fees to third-degree price discrimination, we evaluate the welfare consequences of banning such fees. We find the use of ad valorem fees generally increases welfare, including for calibrated versions of the model based on data from Amazon's marketplace and Visa's signature debit cards.
    Keywords: platforms; taxation; third-degree price discrimination
    JEL: D4 H2 L5
    Date: 2017–03–22
  21. By: Ali, Shazad; Asghar, Ali; Mamoon, Dawood
    Abstract: Generation Y, born between 1978 and 2000, is now ready to affect their general surroundings. And that not only involves social rather other aspects such as business and in particular politics. The recent research on generation Y shows an increasing emphasis on a unique behavioral manifestation of political activism in generation Y which is not limited to a specific ethnic, social or cultural class rather has been observed all over the world. This research, therefore, establishes the proposition that political activism among generation Y is a global phenomenon. Taking the critical realist ontological stance, this research substantiate the recent empirical evidences from Malaysia, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Turkey, USA, Quebec, UK, and Chile to analyze its proposition. The research concludes that its proposition is valid; therefore, further research using different scientific methods must be conducted for further breadth and rigor of this area of knowledge.
    Keywords: Generation Y, Political Activism, Globalization
    JEL: J1 J11
    Date: 2017–03
  22. By: Holmes, Thomas J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Singer, Ethan (CompassLexecon)
    Abstract: Most U.S. imports from Asia arrive in giant 40-foot shipping containers on the decks of massive ocean-going vessels. As such, the containers are powerful symbols of globalization, and the economics of using them has contributed to both the rapid growth of large U.S. retailers and the explosion of Chinese imports. {{p}} This paper reports on the advantage that large importers have in ensuring that shipping containers are packed to capacity. Proliferation of product varieties and short order cycles have led importers to combine various kinds of products, often from different suppliers, to completely fill containers. Our analysis of detailed data on millions of import containers reveals significant scale economies in shipping. {{p}} To the extent that such scale economies are important, policies that limit or impede the growth of large firms may be undesirable for society.
    Date: 2017–03–22
  23. By: Matt Andrews (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Lant Pritchett (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Michael Woolcock (Center for International Development at Harvard University)
    Abstract: We divide the 102 historically developing countries (HDCs) into those with ‘very weak’, ‘weak’, ‘middle’, and ‘strong’ state capability. Analyzing the levels and recent growth rates of the HDCs’ capability for policy implementation reveals how pervasively “stuck” most of them are. Only eight HDCs have attained strong capability, and since most of these are small (e.g., Singapore, UAE), less than 100 million (or 1.7%) of the roughly 5.8 billion people in HDCs currently live in high capability states. Almost half (49) of these countries have very weak or weak capability, and thus their long-run pace of acquiring capability is also very slow. Alarmingly, three quarters of these countries (36 of 49) have experienced negative growth in state capability in recent decades, while more than a third of all countries (36 of 102) have low and (in the medium run at least) deteriorating state capability. At current rates, the ‘time to high capability’ of the 49 currently weak capability states and the 36 with negative growth is obviously “forever”. But even for the 13 with positive growth, only three would reach strong capability by the end of the 21st century at their current medium run growth.
    Date: 2016–01
  24. By: Adrian Wood
    Abstract: During 1985–2015, globalization intensified the factor-endowment-related pattern of sectoral specialization. In skill-abundant developed countries, manufacturing became more skill-intensive. In land-scarce developing East Asia, labour-intensive manufacturing expanded, especially in China. In land-abundant developing regions, however, manufacturing stagnated or declined, while in land-scarce South Asia manufacturing was held back by low literacy and weak infrastructure. The shares of service sectors in output and employment increased in most countries, but mainly for reasons unrelated to globalization. Changes in sectoral structure in the decades ahead are subject to much uncertainty, but will continue to be shaped by differences among countries in land abundance and skill supplies.
    Date: 2017
  25. By: Zsolt Darvas; András Simon
    Abstract: This paper argues that in open economies the Phillips-curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradable and non-tradable sectors. In the non-tradable sector excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the Phillips-curve, while in the tradable sector much of the excess demand is absorbed by the trade balance. We set up an unobserved-components model including both a Phillips-curve and a trade equation to trace back ‘sustainable’ output. We apply the model to a Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Mexico, Korea and Hungary to test the importance of the two relationships. state-space models and Kalman-filter We find that the trade balance is more important than the Phillips-curve in identifying sustainable output. Our sustainable output estimates for euro-area periphery countries differ substantially from the potential output estimates of the European Commission and, in our view, our results can be better interpreted in light of economic developments. We also found that our model was able to correctly identify the sign of the output gap in real time, in contrast to the estimates of the European Commission. Furthermore, the revisions in our output gap estimates were smaller than the revisions of the European Commission’s estimates. NOTE: AN EARLIER VERSION OF THIS PAPER WAS ACCEPTED FOR PRESENTATION AT 2014 ECOMOD, BUT I COULD NOT OBTAIN FUNDING TO TRAVEL TO INDONESIA. THIS YEAR I WILL HAVE FUNDING TO TRAVEL TO BOSTON.
    Keywords: Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Argentina, Mexico, Korea and Hungary, Business cycles, Macroeconometric modeling
    Date: 2015–07–01
  26. By: Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: European economic recovery has made progress since the Banking and the Euro Crises, respectively, however there is still need for broader strategic growth progress in the EU. Following the BREXIT referendum result, medium term output forecasts for many European countries have seen a downward revision by the IMF WEO Update of July 19th, 2016. Europe could raise economic growth through a quintuple package: namely, a first element of growth-enhancing policy focusing on the Eurozone, a second element with emphasis on Eastern European EU countries and a third element with a broad emphasis on European infrastructure investment and digital modernization that would include the UK and other non-EU countries in Europe. The list of 11 growth drivers identified by MGI could largely be implemented at the national policy layer. Moreover, the Eurozone countries could adopt a virtual fiscal policy fund for part of both infrastructure and military expenditures so that a better policy mix and more efficient stabilization will be achieved. The UK and the EU27 countries should agree to set up a joint climate R&D funding agency in which the UK and the EU27 would jointly contribute funds so that sustained green innovation and growth projects could be financed in Europe. Beyond new institutions, other growth-enhancing measures which have a clear analytical basis should be adopted. A growth-enhancing G20 element as a follow-up to the Brisbane summit approach would be useful. A decisive focus of a success-promising plan for a dynamic EU27 and Europe, respectively, should be on understanding that the 21st century will be largely digital, shaped by Asian countries and Schumpeterian dynamics. Thus, securing FTAs between the EU and ASEAN, Japan and India are key challenges. A special joint fund for training/retraining in Eastern Europe would also be useful for economic convergence and reduced inequality.
    Keywords: Growth, Brexit, R&D, Research, Development, EU, Europe,Institutions, Policy, Reforms
    JEL: O11 O3 O43 E02 F5
    Date: 2017–03
  27. By: Zuzana Smeets Kristkova; Michiel van Dijk; Hans van Meijl
    Abstract: Food security is one of the largest challenges facing mankind in the next half century (as acknowledged for instance by UNDP, 2012 and UNEP, 2012). The projections of population growth warn that by 2050 the agricultural sector will have to feed 9 billion people, which requires doubling the current levels of food production. Due to the constrained expansion of agricultural land, technical progress is required that will drive agricultural productivity and therefore make an important contribution to future improvements of global food security. Long-term projections of global food security should take into account that food security is a multidimensional concept, which includes dimensions of availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability (FAO, 2000). The availability dimension is associated with the physical supply of food which increasingly relies on technical change in agriculture, triggered by investments to research and development (Avila and Evenson, 2010). The most contemporary global state-of-the art CGE models however do not accurately reflect this linkage (i.e. models included in the Agmip Global Economic Comparison Project). The accessibility dimension is related to households’ income and the evolution and variability of food prices (Sen, 1981). However, the experiment performed by Robison et al. (2013) showed that food prices projections may be highly diverging under various technical change assumptions that specify the type of factor-bias and the inter-sectoral spillovers. The paper aims at providing projections of food security in a GTAP-based CGE model MAGNET (Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool), developed at LEI. Main contributions of this paper are threefold: i) it provides long-term projections of food security with R&D driven endogenous technical change and thus it partially opens the “black-box” in modelling technical change, ii) it builds on empirical estimates of endogenous technical change and thus it increases the reliability of food price projections, iii) it encompasses various dimensions of food security in a general equilibrium framework, which enables to capture important inter-sectoral linkages in factor markets and the effects of R&D spillovers across all regions of the world. The modelling approach is based on the incorporation of a specific R&D module into MAGNET, in which two types of R&D activities are distinguished - public and private agricultural R&D. Public agricultural R&D is considered as a land-augmenting research activity, represented mainly by investments into new crop varieties, which is fully demanded by government. Certain lag is considered before R&D is fully transmitted into higher land productivity. Moreover, public R&D spillovers are included in the model based on the regional distance from the global technology frontier. On the other hand, private R&D investments are considered as by-product activities of agricultural input sectors (agriculture, chemical and transport industry) assuming that the R&D investment incentives go hand in hand with the industrial performance. Private R&D investments stimulate land and labor-augmenting technical change via knowledge which acts as a new production factor in the economy. The projections of Food security are obtained for the period 2007 – 2050. There are four baseline scenarios that have been constructed in a joint stakeholder/modelling process and that reflect the future of global economy taking into account dimensions of inequality and sustainability. In this paper, the projections of food security are analysed for these four baseline scenarios assuming that governmental expenditures on R&D follow regional GDP growth. Besides standard indicators such as agricultural production and prices, specific food security indicators including nutritional status of the households are reported.
    Keywords: Food security projections are calculated for 35 aggregated regions of the world. However, specific “food-secure” relevant countries are included individually, namely: Indonesia, India, Ghana, Ethiopia and Uganda. , General equilibrium modeling, Agricultural issues
    Date: 2015–07–01

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