nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2016‒11‒20
sixteen papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. ASEAN- India free trade agreement: an assessment of merchandise exports and imports. By Varma, Anil
  2. Factory Asia and Asia-Pacific Economic Regionalism: The Connectivity Factor Revisited By Evgeny A. Kanaev; Alexander S. Korolev
  3. Analysis of the Role of Tariff Concessions in East Asia By Kenichi Kawasaki; Badri Narayanan G; Houssein Guimbard; Arata Kuno
  4. Firm-level trade creation and diversion of regional trade agreements in Thailand By Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Kimura, Fukunari; Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut
  5. Revitalized Agriculture for Balanced Growth and Resilient Livelihoods: Toward a Rural Development Strategy for Mon State, Myanmar By Center for Economic and Social; International Food Policy Research Institute; Michigan State University
  6. Does Urbanization Help Poverty Reduction in Rural Areas? Evidence from Vietnam By Mohamed Arouri; Adel Ben Youssef; Cuong Nguyen-Viet
  7. Lessons from Effective Poverty Alleviation in Indonesia: the Role of Women Empowerment and Community Participation By Armida Alisjahbana; Pipit Pitriyan
  8. Financial Reforms in Myanmar and Japan's Engagement By Tomoo Kikuchi; Takehiro Masumoto
  9. Reform of the European Union financial supervisory and regulatory architecture and its implications for Asia By Zsolt Darvas; Dirk Schoenmaker; Nicolas Véron
  10. Concepts and realities of family farming in Asia and the Pacific By Jingzhong Ye; Lu Pan
  11. Extreme dependence between crude oil and stock markets in Asia-Pacific regions: Evidence from quantile regression By Zhu, Huiming; Huang, Hui; Peng, Cheng; Yang, Yan
  12. Computation of first-order Greeks for barrier options using chain rules for Wiener path integrals By Kensuke Ishitani
  13. Variety of Future-Orientation: The Case of G-19 Countries By Horst Hanusch; Yasushi Hara
  14. Asynchronous ADRs: Overnight vs Intraday Returns and Trading Strategies By Tim Leung; Jamie Kang
  15. International Transmission of Growth Shocks and the World Business Cycle By Shen Yifan; Tilak Abeysinghe
  16. Posner’s Wealth Maximization for Welfare Maximization: Separating Efficiency and Equality Considerations By Yew-Kwang Ng

  1. By: Varma, Anil
    Abstract: The general objective of the present paper is to review the provisions in India-ASEAN FTA and merchandise exports and imports between both parties. This is expected to provide deeper insight in to the research questions about the structural transformation in exports and imports of India and ASEAN especially after the formation of ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement. The present paper is also expected to provide an analysis about the direction of India’s trade with ASEAN. The study finds that almost all ASEAN countries use the FTA route to engage trade with India. Indian export baskets have not undergone changes even after the formation of the ASEAN –India FTA, but the import baskets have undergone a structural transformation during 2000-2014 period. Also imports grew faster than exports during the period of analysis. Major destinations of India’s exports are Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam while major sources of imports are Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Many of these countries enjoy greater productivity in agricultural sector as their farm production is incorporated in more capitalist production mode. The study finds that the lists are not prepared with scientific impact assessment techniques, where the non farming community largely represented by the organisation in this field during the trade negotiations will help them to put their commodities in the lists to which they are preference towards.
    Keywords: Free trade agreements, Tariff, exports, imports.
    JEL: F1 F15
    Date: 2015–09–12
  2. By: Evgeny A. Kanaev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander S. Korolev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: With its strong economic, technological and innovative potential, Asia-Pacific has the potential to drive the global economy. The “engine” of this drive is the system of supply-value chains within the vertically-organized Asia-Pacific conglomerates specializing in producing value-added intermediate goods and services. In the academic literature, this phenomenon is conceptualized as “Factory Asia”. To unlock Asia-Pacific’s true potential, the implementation of measures embracing regional infrastructural, institutional and people-to-people connectivity becomes the key prerequisite for success. The initiatives of Asia-Pacific economic regionalism covering the trans-Pacific and the East Asian/South Asian geographical domain—the Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—have different possibilities to develop the connectivity agenda. While FTAAP and potentially RCEP can stimulate these processes, for TPP it is highly problematic. This broadens the possibilities for Russia to get more involved in Asia-Pacific economic cooperation with an emphasis upon technologically-advanced exchanges within Factory Asia. Strengthening regional connectivity is the key component in Russia’s agenda in multilateral cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries, which was exemplified by Russia’s APEC agenda. While at present the resource-intensive production in Russia’s Far East is prioritized, the multiplier effect produced by the Territories of Advanced Development on the industrial and innovative sectors of Russian economy can help Russia to enter Factory Asia.
    Keywords: Asia-Pacific, economic regionalism, Factory Asia, TPP, RCEP, Russia
    JEL: F5
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Kenichi Kawasaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Badri Narayanan G (University of Washington Seattle); Houssein Guimbard (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)); Arata Kuno (Kyorin University)
    Abstract: While there are many studies focusing on the impacts of various trade policy agreements across the world in the recent years, there is not much focus in the literature on the extent to which these agreements are implemented later, in terms of the aspects agreed upon therein. In this paper, we firstly identify the past achievements of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in East Asian regions in terms of tariff removals and suggest future rooms for further economic benefits from trade liberalization in the region. Secondly, we provide the tariff concession dataset in the GTAP Data Base, which distinguishes the tariff removals agreed in these EPAs in East Asia but not implemented yet, from the existing overall tariffs in the benchmark year. As the standard GTAP Data Base only incorporates enforced tariff reductions through the base year applied tariffs, to analyse future trade integration, it might be worth it to integer commitments that are not yet implemented. We do that at the HS6 levels for East Asian EPAs that allows us to compare the economic impacts of partial versus complete implementation of the trade liberalization agreed in East Asian EPAs. Our results suggest that taking those commitments into account economically matters and that such satellite dataset might be taken as actual baseline for future policy simulations.
    Date: 2016–11
  4. By: Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Kimura, Fukunari; Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut
    Abstract: Using highly detailed import data for Thailand, this paper examines firm-level trade creation and diversion of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Specifically, by focusing on firm-product pairs in which firms import a particular product from non-members but not from RTA members in the initial year of our sample, we empirically investigate the start of imports from RTA members under RTA schemes and the cessation of imports from non-members at the firm-level. We find that firms are more likely to stop importing products with low RTA tariff rates or high most-favored-nation tariff rates from non-members and to start importing such products from RTA member countries. However, from the quantitative point of view, there are very few firms that switch import sources from non-members to RTA members when facing the introduction of RTA schemes.
    Keywords: International trade, International agreements, International economic integration, RTA, Trade creation, Thailand
    JEL: F15 F53
    Date: 2016–11
  5. By: Center for Economic and Social; International Food Policy Research Institute; Michigan State University
    Abstract: The purpose of this report is to provide national- and state-level policymakers, private-sector investors, civil society, and donors with an analysis of the rural economy of Mon State and pathways to improved prosperity for its population. The analysis is based on a representative survey of rural households, which make up 73% of Mon State’s 2 million residents, and extensive interviews with farmers, traders, processors, local leaders, and government officials. Whereas some parts of the Mon State economy are quite dynamic, such as construction, others are stagnant and far from reaching their full potential. Furthermore, the dynamic sectors are heavily dependent on remittances from migrants to neighboring countries.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2016–09
  6. By: Mohamed Arouri (Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion); Adel Ben Youssef (Economic Research Forum); Cuong Nguyen-Viet (Mekong Development Research Institute and National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: Urbanization and poverty have a two-way relationship. Using fixed-effects regression and panel data from household surveys, we estimate the effect of urbanization on welfare and poverty of rural households in Vietnam. We find that urbanization tends to increase landlessness of rural households and to reduce their farm income. However, urbanization helps rural households increase their wages and non-farm incomes. As a result, total income and consumption expenditure of rural households tend to be increased with urbanization. Then we find that urbanization also helps rural households decrease the expenditure poverty rate, albeit at a small magnitude. JEL Codes: O18, I30, R11
    Keywords: urbanization, household welfare, rural poverty, impact evaluation, household surveys, Vietnam, Asia
    Date: 2016–10
  7. By: Armida Alisjahbana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Pipit Pitriyan (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)
    Abstract: Many literatures suggest that eliminating poverty especially in less developed and developing countries is strongly correlated with many factors such as household’s human capital endowment, its accessibility to basic services and sources of funding. This study puts special attention to spouse (women) as the key agent in household poverty eradication. It is hypothesized that women’s human capital directly determines household’s ability in escaping poverty through its own efforts as well as through its ability to better access and utilize resources. A Multinomial Logit Analysis using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS5) 2014 is utilized to capture the determinants of household poverty status. The dependent variables are household poverty status 2014, i.e. “poor and near poor”, “vulnerable” or “non-poor”. Our main estimator is Spouse Education as proxy of Women Human Capital. The model is controlled by variables representing household socioeconomic characteristics, district’s economic characteristics, poverty related government programs, community participation and community facilities. By performing interaction between women human capital level with community participation variable expected to bring household out of poverty. It is found that women’s human capital and its interaction with community participation has increased the probability of household’s in escaping poverty. Several policy implications related to women human capital improvement and empowerment together with poverty alleviation program follow.
    Keywords: Poverty alleviation; Women education; Women empowerment
    JEL: I32 I38 O15
    Date: 2016–11
  8. By: Tomoo Kikuchi; Takehiro Masumoto
    Keywords: Financial development, economic development, financial reforms, Myanmar’s economy, Japan–Myanmar relations
    JEL: N2 O2 P4
    Date: 2016–11
  9. By: Zsolt Darvas; Dirk Schoenmaker; Nicolas Véron
    Abstract: European Union countries offer a unique experience of financial regulatory and supervisory integration, complementing various other European integration efforts following the second world war. Financial regulatory and supervisory integration was a very slow process before 2008, despite significant cross-border integration especially of wholesale financial markets.However, the policy framework proved inadequate in the context of the major financial crisis in the EU starting in 2007, and especially in the euro area after 2010. That crisis triggered major changes to European financial regulation and to the financial supervisory architecture, most prominently with the creation of three new European supervisory authorities in 2011 and the gradual establishment of European banking union starting in 2012. The banking union is a major structural institutional change for the EU, arguably the most significant since the introduction of the euro. Even in its current highly incomplete form, and with no prospects for rapid completion, the banking union has improved financial supervision in the euro area and increased the euro area’s resilience. Asian financial integration lags well behind Europe, and there is no comparable political and legal integration. Nevertheless, Asia can draw useful lessons from European experiences in multiple areas that include the harmonisation of the micro-prudential framework, proper macro-prudential structures, and participation in global financial authorities.
    Date: 2016–11
  10. By: Jingzhong Ye (IPC-IG); Lu Pan (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "The Asia and the Pacific region has the largest number of family farms in the world. It is home to 60 per cent of the worlds population and to 74 per cent of the world's family farmers, with China alone representing 35 per cent and India 24 per cent of the estimated 570 million farms worldwide (Lowder et al. 2014). Though generally working in small plots of less than 2 hectares on average, family farmers in Asia and the Pacific produce 80 per cent of the total food needed to ensure food security in the region (AFA 2014). It is undeniable that family farming has played a central role in the socio-economic development and well-being of the entire population of Asia and the Pacific. As the reports for the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific stated, 'family farming is essential for the sustainability of agricultural, forestry and fishery production systems... [family farms] are the context in which important decisions on natural resource management are made. They hold the key to achieving food security not only for themselves, but also for the increasingly large number of families that have left the farm sector for employment in other occupations'". (?)
    Keywords: Concepts, realities, family farming, Asia, Pacific
    Date: 2016–11
  11. By: Zhu, Huiming; Huang, Hui; Peng, Cheng; Yang, Yan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the extreme dependence between the Asia-Pacific stock markets and the international crude oil market by applying the quantile regression theory and using daily data from January 4th, 2000 to July 4th, 2016. The authors obtain a more detailed result on the degree and structure of the dependence, and furthermore, the results present an asymmetric and heterogeneous dependence. Moreover, the dependence increases dramatically after a structural break point, meaning a crisis. Additionally, the authors observe a more significant dependence at the lower tails than the upper tails. They demonstrate the positive relationship at low quantiles, which is evidence of positive dependence in recessions or bearish markets.
    Keywords: Extreme dependence,Crude oil,Asia-Pacific stock market,Quantile regression,Structural breaks
    JEL: E44 Q43
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Kensuke Ishitani
    Abstract: This paper presents a new methodology to compute first-order Greeks for barrier options under the framework of path-dependent payoff functions with European, Lookback, or Asian type and with time-dependent trigger levels. In particular, we develop chain rules for Wiener path integrals between two curves that arise in the computation of first-order Greeks for barrier options. We also illustrate the effectiveness of our method through numerical examples.
    Date: 2016–11
  13. By: Horst Hanusch (Institute of Economics, University of Augsburg, Augsburg); Yasushi Hara (Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo)
    Abstract: In modern growth or development theory innovation is a crucial factor which pushes the dynamics of an economy and determines its success in the future. Out of innovations, created in the presence, the potentials for the future of a country are prepared, deciding how its economic fitness and competitiveness will emerge. So, future-orientation is in a natural way connected with innovativeness of a firm, a region or a country and shapes the strength and the specifics of the process of development. Our study is focusing on the group of G-19 countries with respect to their future-orientation shaped and characterized by innovation and the underlying processes of creating and distributing novelties. This group is an economic, financial and political forum which consists of 19 major economies, advanced and developing ones, allocated in Asia, Europe, Euro-Asia, North and South America, The Middle East and Oceania. If you add the European Union you get the G-20 group which is the main economic council of wealthy nations nowadays. The concept of future-orientation, defined by innovativeness, gets its analytical and empirical relevance when it is placed and investigated within a specific development model. Such a model determines the theoretical basis of the study and provides the necessary ingredients for an empirical application. In our study we will use "Comprehensive Neo-Schumpeterian Economics" (CNSE) as an analytical framework (Hanusch and Pyka, 2007a). This approach is based (a) on the principle of innovation as the main driving force and the engine of development coupled b) with the notion of future-orientation penetrating all spheres of socio-economic life in developed as well as in developing countries. Based on the concept of CNSE the central aim of our study is to gain new insights and findings concerning the variety of future-orientation of the G-19 countries. For that purpose we use an empirical indicator approach which (a) tries to bring the notion of future-orientation on a concrete basis by using indicators embedded in the framework of CNSE; (b) investigates patterns of similarities in the set of indicators; (c) shows how these patterns look like by applying cluster analysis; (d) draws some conclusions from the patterns concerning the status and variety of future-orientation in the group of G-19 countries.
    Keywords: Development Models, Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, Indicator Analysis, Cluster Analysis
    JEL: B52 C8 O57
    Date: 2016–11
  14. By: Tim Leung; Jamie Kang
    Abstract: American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are exchange-traded certificates that rep- resent shares of non-U.S. company securities. They are major financial instruments for investing in foreign companies. Focusing on Asian ADRs in the context of asyn- chronous markets, we present methodologies and results of empirical analysis of their returns. In particular, we dissect their returns into intraday and overnight com- ponents with respect to the U.S. market hours. The return difference between the S&P500 index, traded through the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY), and each ADR is found to be a mean-reverting time series, and is fitted to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process via maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). Our empirical observations also lead us to develop and backtest pairs trading strategies to exploit the mean-reverting ADR-SPY spreads. We find consistent positive payoffs when long position in ADR and short position in SPY are simultaneously executed at selected entry and exit levels.
    Date: 2016–10
  15. By: Shen Yifan (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Tilak Abeysinghe (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: It is a stylized fact that growth shocks in major economies generate the world business cycle, which is usually extracted from dynamic factor models. We utilize a trade-linked SVAR model with a realistic identification scheme to capture the transmission mechanism, covering 60 major economies and the rest of the world. We show that the SVAR structure provides a meaningful economic foundation to factor-modelbased statistical analyses. In addition, the SVAR model shows the important role played by indirect multiplier channels in the transmission mechanism and how these effects change over time. Specific attention is paid to the transmission of US and China growth shocks.
    Keywords: Trade-linked SVAR; Dynamic Factor Model; International Transmission Mechanism; World Business Cycle; Indirect Multiplier Effect
    JEL: F41 F44 O19
  16. By: Yew-Kwang Ng (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332.)
    Abstract: Posner’s proposal for wealth maximization in judiciary decisions has not been widely accepted, but the influence of the economic analysis of law it propelled has increased tremendously. In the face of criticism, Posner himself has retreated into a pragmatism with wealth maximization not the only principle used. This leads to a lack of both moral justification and consistency. This paper argues that, if not used as the ultimate objective, but as an instrument for welfare maximization, wealth maximization is much more acceptable, if it is also supplemented by appropriate redistribution in the general equality policy. This is especially so as efficiency supremacy in specific issues including the judiciary (close to wealth maximization) would then make every income group better off. This is so despite the presence of disincentive effects in general redistribution. The separation of the judiciary and the legislative may then also be justified.
    Keywords: Wealth maximization; efficiency; welfare; utilitarianism; judiciary.
    JEL: K0 H0
    Date: 2016–11

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